Two new polls tonight (YouGov/Sunday Times is still to come) and both showing six point Labour leads and UKIP increasing their support.
The online ComRes poll in the Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror has topline figures of CON 29%(-3), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 7%(-2), UKIP 20%(+4). The 20% for UKIP is the highest that ComRes have shown to date, the 7 for the Lib Dems the lowest.
Meanwhile Opinium in the Observer have topline figures of CON 30%(-2), LAB 36%(+3), LDEM 7%(-3), UKIP 18%(+3). Opinium tend to show higher UKIP scores anyway, so this isn’t as record-breaking as the ComRes figure, they’ve shown UKIP at 20 and 21 in the past.
Looking at the broader trend UKIP do appear to be picking up more support. Ipsos MORI this week also showed them on the up, YouGov have been showing increased UKIP support in their daily polls since the second debate. As ever, be careful about ascribing changes in support to particular events. The increase in UKIP support seems to have started after the second Farage-Clegg debate, but it also comes with expenses back in the news, and with the European elections approaching and the consequential increased publicity for the party.
The fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer is now out and shows the same sort of narrowing we’ve seen in other post-budget polls. Topline figures with changes from a fortnight ago are CON 32%(+2), LAB 33%(-2), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 15%(-1).
The only other poll I’m expecting overnight is the usual YouGov/Sunday Times poll.
The monthly online ComRes poll for the Sunday Indy and Sunday Mirror is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 32%(nc), LAB 35%(-2), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 16%(+1). Tabs are here.
The poll also asked about European election voting intentions and found toplines of CON 21%, LAB 28%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 30%. Despite widespread speculation that UKIP could win the European elections, most recent polling has actually shown Labour ahead, so this is a good poll for UKIP (note that this poll shows some rather extreme shifts from the previous ComRes European poll, but the crosstabs in that poll looked exceptionally odd, so I wouldn’t read much into the changes).
The fortnightly Opinium/Observer poll is also out tonight, and has toplines of CON 30%(+1), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 16%(-3)
The fortnightly Opinium poll for the Observer tonight has topline figures of CON 29%(+1), LAB 34%(-3), LDEM 10%(+2), UKIP 19%(+2). Opinium tend to show higher figures for UKIP and consequently some of the lowest figures for the Conservatives and Labour (something that’s probably due to a lack of any political weighting) so the low Conservative and Labour scores are not actually that remarkable, though for the record the Labour score is the lowest Opinium have shown since 2010 (though of course, back them when Labour were on 34 it put them four points behind the Tories, now it puts them five points ahead!). Tabs are here.
This week’s YouGov/Sunday Times results are here. Topline voting intentions are CON 32%, LAB 39%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 12%.
People’s opinion of how Cameron has handled the floods has crept up slightly since last week, but a solid majority still think he hasn’t done well. 29% of people think he’s handled the flooding well (up 4 from a week ago), 60% badly (down 2). The figures for the environment agency are still very similar – 27% say well, 63% badly.
While opinion has moved slightly in Cameron’s favour, on the question of whose fault the flooding is blame is gradually shifting towards the government. Compared to a fortnight ago 27% now blame the government (up 10 points), 23% the environment agency (down 5), 41% say it is just freak weather and nothing could have been done (down 8). Support for more spending on flood defences has also steadily risen – now 50% of people, from 49% a week ago, 38% a fortnight ago. People have also become more likely to think the flooding is connected to climate change – 47% now say the weather causing the floods is likely connected to climate change (up 7), 39% think it is not (down 5).
Looking forward, 57% of people would support a ban on building houses on flood plains, 33% think it is acceptable with appropriate anti-flooding measures. The public are almost evenly divided on whether we should keep on defending the most vulnerable areas – 39% think we should defend all settled areas, whatever the cost, 38% think there are some settled areas that are such a high risk of flooding it is not worth the cost to try and defend them. 47% of people think those people who have bought property in areas of high flood risk and ended up being flooded deserve our sympathy, 22% think they have only themselves to blame.
There was also an Opinium poll in the Observer with topine figures of CON 28%(-1), LAB 37%(+1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 17%(nc). Their flooding questions had very similar results to YouGov – people thought Cameron hasd responded badly to the flood by 51% to 23% thinking he’d done well. 51% think the floods were related to climate change, 24% did not.