Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor has topline figures of CON 40%(-1), LAB 44%(+2), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 2%(-1). Fieldwork was over the weekend and changes are from July.

Leader satisfaction ratings are May minus 17, Corbyn minus 3 and Cable minus 1. While Vince Cable has the least negative net rating, this is because he has far higher don’t knows than the other two leaders (39% compared to 10%) rather than any great surge of “pro-Vince” feeling. MORI also asked some more detailed questions about perceptions of the leaders’ qualities, underlining the collapse in perceptions of May’s and the rehabilitation of Jeremy Corbyn since last year. In September 2016 Theresa May had better ratings on almost everything (the sole exception was being marginally more likely to be seen as more style than substance). Now there are obvious areas where the two leaders outshine each other – May is still more likely to be seen as a capable leader, good in a crisis (though her leads are vastly reduced – in 2016 she beat Corbyn by 44 points on being a capable leader, now it’s only 7 points), but Corbyn now has strong leads on personality and honesty, and is much less likely to be seen as out of touch.

MORI also repeated their regular question comparing the popularity of leaders and their parties – do respondents like the leader and party, the leader but not their party, the party but not its leader, or neither of them? 46% of people said they liked Jeremy Corbyn (up 9 since last year), putting him eight points behind Labour on 54% (up 8) – that means both Corbyn and Labour have become more popular, but Corbyn continues to be less popular than his party. Compare this with the Conservatives: a year ago Theresa May vastly outshone her party, by 60% to 38%. That gap has now vanished – the Conservative party is still only liked by 38%, but Theresa May is now on the same figure, down by 22 points (At the risk of pointing out the obvious, note how much stronger the Labour brand remains than the Conservative party – while they may not vote for them, most people have a broadly positive perception of the Labour party, far more than can be said for the Tories). Full tabs are here

There was also a poll by Opinium at the weekend, which had movement in the opposition direction. Their topline figures were CON 41%(+1), LAB 41%(-2), LDEM 5%(-1), UKIP 5%(+1). Looking at the broader picture, the polls still appear to be clustered around a very small lead for the Labour party. Tabs for Opinium are here.


Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor for the Standard has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%. This is MORI’s first poll since the general election, and like other companies now shows Labour with a small lead over the Conservatives. Fieldwork was Friday to Tuesday. As far as I can tell, the methodology is back to MORI’s usual methods, as they were using before the election campaign. Full details are here.

To update on other voting intention polls earlier this week, ICM for the Guardian on Tuesday had voting intentions of CON 42%(+1), LAB 43%(nc), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 3%(nc). Fieldwork was over the weekend, and changes were from a fortnight ago. Full tabs for that are here.

Finally YouGov for the Times, which was released on Monday but conducted last week, had topline figures of CON 40%, LAB 45%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 2%. Tabs for that are here.


-->

As usual, the final poll of the campaign (unless ICM do release updated figures) is from Ipsos MORI, who traditionally keep on polling on Wednesday evening and publish their final call in Thursday’s Evening Standard. Topline figures are CON 44%(-1), LAB 36%(-4), LDEM 7%(nc), UKIP 4%(+2), giving them an eight point Tory lead. Two slight changes since the last poll – MORI have expanded their turnout adjustment to include tenure and, in the same way as they have done in their final call at past general elections, they’ve reallocated people who are certain to vote but are still saying don’t know in line with their newspaper readership. Full tabs are here.

And, that’s it until 10pm, when we will get the headline call from the BBC/ITN/Sky exit poll from MORI and GfK.


Ipsos MORI’s penultimate election poll has topline figures of CON 45%(-4), LAB 40%(+6), LDEM 7%(nc). Changes are from their previous poll in mid-May, hence the drop in the Tory lead here is probably largely just reflecting the post-manifesto drop that we’ve seen in other polls. The forty point figure is the highest Labour have recorded since early 2014 (though of course, back then it gave them a substantial lead… now it still puts them five points behind).

The UKIP figure isn’t in the Evening Standard’s write up – I’ll add it when the tables appear.

UPDATE: Tables are here. Note that there is a minor methodology change, filtering out unregistered people and adjusting turnout to account for overestimation. The effect of that was to increase the Conservative vote by one point, to decease Labour by one point, so without it we would have been looking at a three point Tory lead.


A variety of new and newish polls today.

Starting with the newest of the regular polls, Kantar‘s latest topline figures are CON 43%(+1), LAB 33%(-1), LDEM 11%(+2), UKIP 4%(nc). Fieldwork was between Thursday and Tuesday. The changes are not significant in themselves, but unlike most recent polls don’t show continuing movement towards Labour. Note also that there is a methodological change – Kantar now estimate how people who say don’t know will vote based on upon their demographics and whether they find May or Corbyn more trustworthy. The impact of this chance is to decrease the Labour vote by a point (so without it, the Conservative lead would barely have changed at all). Tables are here.

We also saw a Panelbase poll today. This is not actually new – it is the poll that was in the field during the Manchester bombing last week, which Panelbase made the decision to withhold in the light of the tragedy. Topline figures are CON 48%, LAB 33%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 4%. Fieldwork was back between the 19th and 23rd of May. I’ve not included changes as there are significant methodological changes here – Panelbase have tightened their turnout filter to only include people who say 10/10, and they reweight their voting intention question so the age matches the age profile of people who voted in 2015. As with other companies whose turnout model is based upon replicating the age profile of 2015 voters this has a substantial effect. Panelbase say without it their poll would have shown the lead narrowing by 6 points from their previous poll (implying they would otherwise be showing an eight point Tory lead on their old method!). Panelbase tabs are here. In their comments Panelbase also say they will be releasing a new poll in the next day or two which again has the Tory lead falling.

Thirdly there was a new Ipsos MORI Scottish poll. Topline voting intention there is SNP 43%, CON 25%, LAB 25%, LDEM 5%. As ever, the SNP are in a clear first place, but down from the last election. Where it had appeared that the Scottish Conservatives were now the clear second placed party, this suggests that Labour may have recovered into joint-second place (that would also be very good news for the SNP – under FPTP the SNP benefit from being the dominant pro-independence party when the unionist parties are split three ways). Full details are here.

There was also a new SurveyMonkey poll for the Sun. This has topline figures of CON 44%(nc), LAB 38%(+2), LDEM 6%(nc), UKIP 4%(-1). Now, SurveyMonkey are not members of the British Polling Council and we don’t have any tables or further methodological detail to examine. However, they did poll at the 2015 election so have a record to judge. Their method is unusual – sample is gathered by randomly selecting people at the end of other surveys hosted on the surveymonkey platform. Back in 2015 they were the only company whose pre-election poll got the Conservative lead about right…but because they got both Labour and the Conservatives too low their average error across all parties was the highest (and the BPC inquiry found that their sample was still heavily skewed towards the politically interested… though they may have corrected that since then). In short, make of that what you will – it may be that their approach does do something that traditional polling does not… or it may be they just got lucky in 2015.