Two new GB voting intention polls today, with the regular YouGov/Sun poll still to come. The two polls so far are both wholly in line with the overall average – Lab and Con pretty much neck-and-neck, with Labour just a tad ahead.

Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor has topline figures of CON 33%(nc), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 10%(-3), GRN 8%(+2). Full details of the polling are here.

Meanwhile Panelbase have figures of CON 33%(+2), LAB 34%(-3), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 16%(nc), GRN 4%(nc). There’s a shift to the Tories here, but it’s almost certainly just a reversion to the mean – the previous Panelbase poll was that unusual six point Labour lead. Full tabs are here.


The monthly Ipsos MORI poll for the Evening Standard is out today, with topline figures of CON 33%(-1), LAB 34%(-2), LDEM 8%(+2), UKIP 13%(+4), GRN 6%(-1). Changes are from a month ago and show little of significance – the only large movement is a four point increase for UKIP, which is likely a reversion to the mean after an odd looking 9% in last month’s poll.

The tables aren’t up on the MORI website as I write (though MORI are usually very swift, so they may well be by the time you read this) though the Standard’s write up is here. The rest of the poll seems to have largely concentrated on looking towards the budget, and has some generally positive findings for George Osborne. 56% are now saying the government are doing a good job on the economy and Osborne’s own approval rating as Chancellor is 43%. That’s high by the standards of Tory Chancellors… but lower than Gordon Brown had for almost the whole time he was at Number 11.


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The monthly Ipsos MORI poll for the Standard is out and has topline figures of CON 34%(+1), LAB 36%(+2), LDEM 6%(-2), UKIP 9%(-2), GRN 7%(-1). MORI tend to give UKIP some of their lower figures anyway, but this is the first poll from any company to put UKIP down in single figures since September last year. This is only one poll though, as ever, it’s important to look at the wider picture.

Watching the trend is UKIP support is difficult because of the big contrasts between pollsters and the way they have had to adapt their methods to account for the new kid on the block. So for example, Opinium’s latest poll had UKIP on 15%, their lowest level since August… but they had introduced new political weighting that reduced UKIP support, so this wasn’t necessarily a “real” fall. Populus too have had UKIP at around 15% so far this month, but for them that’s higher than in previous months. That isn’t necessary a “real” increase either though, as they’ve changed their weighting in a way that increases UKIP support.

Chopping and changing and contrasting methods makes it very difficult to see the underlying trend. Given the way that many companies (YouGov, Ashcroft, ComRes and Populus) have switched to including UKIP in their main prompt in recent months, MORI, ICM and Survation are actually the only companies NOT to have some sort of change to how they measure UKIP support. Looking at them, MORI now have UKIP at 9%, compared to 11% last month, 13% in Dec, 14% in Nov and 16% in October. ICM’s poll last month had UKIP at 11%, compared to 14-15% between October and December, but only 9-10% last Summer. Survation still had them at 23% last month, but they had them as high as 25% earlier last year.

Accepting all the methodological changes (which apart from Opinium have been changes likely to help, rather than hinder UKIP) and just taking monthly averages of all polls suggests a slight drop in UKIP support since their peak in the Autumn. Their highest monthly average so far was 16.1% in October, following the Clacton by-election and Mark Reckless’s defection, in November it was 16%, in December 15.5%, in January 15.2%. A slight trend, but certainly nothing to get too excited or distraught about, and given the changes in methodology it’s difficult to know how meaningful it is.


A quick update on the latest voting intention polls. This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 34%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 14%, GRN 8% (tabs) – more typical figures than YouGov’s Tuesday poll.

There is also a new TNS poll with topline figures of CON 31%(+3), LAB 31%(-4), LDEM 8%(+2), UKIP 16%(-2), GRN 7%(+2) (tabs). Up until now TNS have tended to release their polls incredibly slowly, often a week or more after their fieldwork was finished, rendering them out of date by the time we see them. Fieldwork for this one however finished on Monday so it’s more timely than usual. The last couple of TNS polls showed Labour leads of 7 points, significantly and consistently larger than any other company. Today’s looks more like other polls. (UPDATE – thanks to those in the comments section who missed something obvious in the TNS tabs that I overlooked! TNS have always weighted by 2010 recalled vote, but they are now weighting by 2010 recalled vote AND 2014 European vote – whether or not this is responsible for their figures coming into line with other companies’s is unclear.)

Finally Ipsos MORI put out their latest Scottish poll yesterday. Westminster voting intentions in Scotland were CON 12%(+2), LAB 24%(+1), LDEM 4%(-2), SNP 52%(nc), GRN 4%(-2). We’ve now had three Scottish polls conducted in 2015. The first one from Panelbase showed the SNP dropping four points and raised some speculation about whether their huge post-referendum surge was fading away again. The second from Survation also had the SNP down, but only by two points and this one from MORI has the level of SNP support holding steady. (On top of that, when tables for the Panelbase poll appeared it turned out that the voting intention question wasn’t asked first, it was asked after a question about whether or not falling oil prices damaged the economic case for Scottish independence, so the SNP fall in that first poll may be a question ordering effect rather than a genuine change)


Ipsos MORI’s monthly poll for the Evening Standard came out today. MORI’s last two polls rather stood out from the crowd by showing three point Conservative leads when all others were showing ties or small Labour leads. Today’s poll looks far more like the average Labour lead, with topline figures of CON 33%(+1), LAB 34%(+5), LDEM 8%(-1), UKIP 11%(-2), GRN 8%(-1) (full tabs are here.)

MORI also asked about which issues would be important to people at the election. Following the earlier polling from ComRes and YouGov that showed health moving sharply up the agenda, this showed healthcare coming top, followed by the economy and immigration. (This isn’t actually MORI’s monthly issues tracker, which is done face-to-face and asks about the most important issues facing the country, but it’s obviously picking up a similar trend)