YouGov’s final poll for the London mayoral election gives Boris a six point lead over Ken Livingstone. Full tabs are here. On the first round voting intention stands at JOHNSON 43%, LIVINGSTONE 38%, PADDICK 7%, WEBB 4%, BENITA 4%, JONES 3%, CORTIGLIA 1%. Once second preferences are reallocated we have JOHNSON 53%, LIVINGSTONE 47% in the final round, the same lead as Boris won upon back in 2008. Note that the lead is mostly down to higher turnout amongst Boris supporters, prior to filtering by likelihood to vote the two candidates are neck and neck.
The poll also has voting intention for the London Assembly, which stands at CON 33%, LAB 44%, LDEM 9%, Others 14% in the constituency vote and CON 32%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%, GRN 7%, BNP 1% in the list vote. This would translate into 11 seats for Labour, 8 for the Conservatives, 2 for the Lib Dems, 2 UKIP and 2 Greens.
There is also a first and final Opinium poll on the London contest here – they have first round preferences at JOHNSON 43%, LIVINGSTONE 37%, PADDICK 7%, JONES 6%, WEBB 3%, BENITA 3%, CORTIGLIA 1%. Once second preferences are reallocated it becomes JOHNSON 52%, LIVINGSTONE 48%.
I am not aware of any other final polls for the London mayoral election. The full list of polls conducted in the campaign are here. The only other polls conducted in the final week of the campaign were the previous poll for YouGov, and a Populus/Times poll which had a substantially larger lead for Boris.
There is no new polling for other elections today – YouGov carried out a poll on the Welsh local elections last month (report here) suggesting a good advance for Labour, Survation published a poll on all the locals here. For Scotland there is a distinct shortage of any polling whatsoever in recent months.
I previewed all of today’s polls at the weekend here, looking at exactly what was up for grabs in each contest. For those watching the results tonight, the English locals should start coming in around midnight, Welsh results also start coming in overnight but will be slower. The Scottish counts start on Friday, while the London results will start coming in Friday afternoon, with the mayoral result hopefully being announced late afternoon or evening.
UPDATE: One more prediction, Roger Mortimore of MORI has adapted his famous Sweet FA election prediction model to predict a Boris win (yes, it’s tongue in cheek, but it has an important lesson as Roger mentions in the footnote. There are a relatively small number of elections since the war, so it is very easy to come up with rules that fit the pattern and give them undue importance. It was logic along those lines that led a few unfortunate pundicts to predict a hung Parliament in 1997, as past history suggested a swing big enough for Labour to win overall was impossible)
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