Yesterday there was also a new YouGov London poll for the Evening Standard (full tables are up on the YouGov website here).

The topline voting intention figures are CON 32%, LAB 45%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 9% – this reflects a swing of 5.5% from Con to Lab since the general election, pretty much in line with that YouGov’s current GB polls are showing.

Boris Johnson continues to enjoy positive ratings – 64% think he is doing his job of Mayor well, only 27% badly. Looking to his future, 43% think it would be reasonable for him to stand for Parliament at the next election, 39% think it would not be reasonable for him to stand until after his term as mayor expires in 2016. A majority (52%) think it would not be acceptable for him to be an MP and mayor at the same time.

Looking towards the Labour contest, YouGov asked who people would be the best Labour candidate for mayor in 2016. At this stage this is probably largely a name recognition exercise and the there was a sizeable chunk of don’t knows, but Eddie Izzard came top amongst Londoners (which at least shows people think he would be a serious contender, not a joke candidate) and joint top with Tessa Jowell amongst Labour voters.

YouGov’s final poll for the London mayoral election gives Boris a six point lead over Ken Livingstone. Full tabs are here. On the first round voting intention stands at JOHNSON 43%, LIVINGSTONE 38%, PADDICK 7%, WEBB 4%, BENITA 4%, JONES 3%, CORTIGLIA 1%. Once second preferences are reallocated we have JOHNSON 53%, LIVINGSTONE 47% in the final round, the same lead as Boris won upon back in 2008. Note that the lead is mostly down to higher turnout amongst Boris supporters, prior to filtering by likelihood to vote the two candidates are neck and neck.

The poll also has voting intention for the London Assembly, which stands at CON 33%, LAB 44%, LDEM 9%, Others 14% in the constituency vote and CON 32%, LAB 42%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 8%, GRN 7%, BNP 1% in the list vote. This would translate into 11 seats for Labour, 8 for the Conservatives, 2 for the Lib Dems, 2 UKIP and 2 Greens.

There is also a first and final Opinium poll on the London contest here – they have first round preferences at JOHNSON 43%, LIVINGSTONE 37%, PADDICK 7%, JONES 6%, WEBB 3%, BENITA 3%, CORTIGLIA 1%. Once second preferences are reallocated it becomes JOHNSON 52%, LIVINGSTONE 48%.

I am not aware of any other final polls for the London mayoral election. The full list of polls conducted in the campaign are here. The only other polls conducted in the final week of the campaign were the previous poll for YouGov, and a Populus/Times poll which had a substantially larger lead for Boris.

There is no new polling for other elections today – YouGov carried out a poll on the Welsh local elections last month (report here) suggesting a good advance for Labour, Survation published a poll on all the locals here. For Scotland there is a distinct shortage of any polling whatsoever in recent months.

I previewed all of today’s polls at the weekend here, looking at exactly what was up for grabs in each contest. For those watching the results tonight, the English locals should start coming in around midnight, Welsh results also start coming in overnight but will be slower. The Scottish counts start on Friday, while the London results will start coming in Friday afternoon, with the mayoral result hopefully being announced late afternoon or evening.

UPDATE: One more prediction, Roger Mortimore of MORI has adapted his famous Sweet FA election prediction model to predict a Boris win (yes, it’s tongue in cheek, but it has an important lesson as Roger mentions in the footnote. There are a relatively small number of elections since the war, so it is very easy to come up with rules that fit the pattern and give them undue importance. It was logic along those lines that led a few unfortunate pundicts to predict a hung Parliament in 1997, as past history suggested a swing big enough for Labour to win overall was impossible)

The Evening Standard has published the penultimate YouGov poll for this year’s London mayoral election. Topline figures for the first round (with changes from last week) are JOHNSON 44%(+1), LIVINGSTONE 41%(nc), PADDICK 6%(-2), WEBB 3%(nc), BENITA 3%(nc), JONES 3%(+1), CORTIGLIA 1%(nc). With second preferences reallocated the final figures are JOHNSON 52%(+1), LIVINGSTONE 48%(-1). Full tabs are here.

In the London Assembly the shares are CON 32%, LAB 45%, LD 8%, Others 15% in the constituency vote and CON 30%, LAB 44%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 8%, GREEN 5%, BNP 2% in the list vote. On a uniform swing this would translate into 12 seats for Labour, 8 for the Conservatives, Lib Dem 2, UKIP 2, Green 1.

The rest of the poll had banks of questions asking which candidate people thought best understood the concerns of various demographic groups and which they trusted on various issues.

On the demographics, Boris is seen as better understanding homeowners and the middle classes, Ken commuters, poorer Londonders, older people and ethnic minorities. On understanding “people like you” Ken has a narrow lead, 26% to 23%. On the issues, Ken has a lead on transport, cost of living and uniting London’s communities. Boris leads on the economy and crime, with the two candidates neck-and-neck on creating jobs.

There were also some questions on “driverless” tube trains. People support their introduction by 44% to 36%. Asked if they’ll make the tube safer, more expensive, or lead to more strikes, on balance people think they will make the tube cheaper and reduce strikes… but by 41% to 8% think it will make the tube less safe.