As well as the ComRes European poll and the Populus and Ashcroft GB polls, there were also two polls of European voting intention in Scotland this morning. These are both the remainder of Scottish polls whose main referendum findings we saw in the Sunday papers.

ICM in the Scotsman found people in Scotland would vote CON 13%, LAB 27%, LDEM 7%, SNP 36%, UKIP 9%, GRN 7%. That would give the SNP three MEPs, Labour two, the Conservatives one. The Lib Dems would lose their Scottish MEP and UKIP fail to gain one.

Survation in the Daily Record had figures of CON 13%, LAB 26%, LDEM 6%, SNP 37%, UKIP 10%, GRN 6% – producing the same seat distrbution.

Still to come tonight we have the monthly ComRes telephone poll and the daily YouGov poll for the Sun. Anyone would think there’s an election this week.


The monthly ComRes online poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out tonight. Topline voting figures are CON 29%(nc), LAB 33%(-2), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 19%(-1), Others 11%. A slight reduction in the Labour lead since a month ago, but still a comfortable lead.

For the European elections voting intentions are CON 20%(-2), LAB 24%(nc), LDEM 6%(-2), UKIP 35%(+1), GRN 7%(+2). This would give UKIP a very comfortable victory indeed next week, and see the Liberal Democrats pushed to fifth place (and on a uniform swing they’d probably lose all their MEPs).

With five days to go until the European elections we’re obviously heading into final call territory, but my understanding is that ComRes have probably got another poll still to come before Thursday’s election. European election polls so far are here.

The Sunday Telegraph also has a new European election due tonight, in this case from ICM, and there is due to be an ICM poll for the Scotland on Sunday too, as well as the usual YouGov/Sunday Times poll. I will update later…

UPDATE: And the ICM European poll is also out. Their topline figures are CON 26%(+4), LAB 29%(-1), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 25%(-2). Changes are from the ICM poll for the Sunday Telegraph last month (ICM did a more recent European poll for the Guardian last weekend, but that was by telephone rather than online). In contrast to the ComRes poll ICM have Labour ahead and the Conservatives and UKIP in a close race for second place.

UPDATE2: I expect some readers will be hoping for some explanation for the gap between these polls. I’m afraid I don’t have a simple one to offer. Some of it might be down to ComRes using a very strict turnout filter, taking only those respondents who said they were 10/10 certain to vote, something which has tended to help UKIP. ICM’s tables aren’t yet available, so I don’t know for sure what they’ve done with turnout, but if their last online Euro poll is any guide they weighted by turnout (so people who say they are 10/10 certain to vote are counted in full, people who say they are 9/10 certain to vote are counted as only 0.9 of a vote, and so on down). That would still help UKIP, but not as much as a strict 10/10 only policy. However, that really can’t explain the whole of a ten point difference in UKIP support.


Following the surprise Ashcroft poll earlier on today ICM’s monthly poll for the Guardian is also showing a lead for the Conservative party. Their topline figures are CON 33%(+1), LAB 31%(-6!), LDEM 13%(+1), UKIP 15%(+4).

ICM had the two parties neck and neck briefly in 2013, but this is the first time they’ve shown the Conservatives ahead since the Omnishambles budget in 2012. I’ll advise my usual caution on polls showing interesting movements, but the poll does give some backup to the Ashcroft poll earlier today.

The poll also asked about voting intention in the European elections and found topline figures of CON 27%, LAB 24%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 26%, GRN 10%. Lab, Con and UKIP are all within the margin of error of each other, but if it panned out like that the Conservatives would presumably be delighted given most polls are showing them languishing in third place (including another from Opinium today, which had figures of CON 23%, LAB 27%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 28%)

The other poll out today, Populus’s regular online poll had topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 36%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 13%. Unlike the other two polls they have Labour still in the lead – but only just. Still to come tonight we will have the regular YouGov poll for the Sun.


There are two new Scottish independence polls in today’s papers – ICM for Scotland on Sunday, and Survation for the Sunday Post, both conducted just after the SNP’s conference last weekend (though as ever, correlation should not necessarily imply causality.)

ICM in the Scotland on Sunday has topline figures of YES 39%(nc), NO 42%(-4). Getting rid of the don’t knows brings us to YES 48%, NO 52% – leaving aside the SNP commissioned poll with leading questions last year, this is the highest level of YES support recorded so far.

Note that there was a slight shift in ICM’s methodology from last time – rather than just weighting those with a declared 2011 recalled vote to the correct proportions of the 2011 vote, they are now also weighting the sample so the correct proportion of the sample claim to have voted in 2011. This should have the result of increasing the proportion of won’t votes and don’t knows, but won’t necessarily have any impact on the proportions of YES and NO.

The second poll for Survation has topline figures of YES 38%(+1), NO 46%(-1). Without don’t knows the YES vote is at 45%. This is a slight move towards YES since Survation’s previous poll a week and a half ago, but looking more widely it’s more of a “no change” poll, Survation also showed YES on 45% in March and February.


Sunday polls

No YouGov/Sunday Times poll tomorrow because of the Friday bank holiday, but there is an ICM European election poll in the Sunday Telegraph and a couple of Scottish polls.

The ICM European poll has voting intentions of CON 22%, LAB 30%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 27%. Labour first, UKIP a close second, the Conservatives in third is the same sort of pattern that Survation, ComRes, YouGov and TNS have all been showing… but is a contrast to ICM’s European poll for the Guardian earlier this week that had Labour six points higher, UKIP seven points lower. The difference is this one was conducted online, the ICM/Guardian poll by telephone.

The two Scottish polls are a new ICM for the Scotland on Sunday and a new Survation Scottish poll. I haven’t seen figures for either yet, so I’ll update tomorrow.

Survation also have another constituency poll done for Alan Bown, this time for Eastleigh, where UKIP came a close second in the by-election last year. Westminster voting intention in the Eastleigh poll stands at CON 28%, LAB 12%, LDEM 27%, UKIP 32% – which would certainly be a turnup for the books. It also asked about the borough elections in Eastleigh next month, and found local election voting intentions of CON 23%, LAB 9%, LDEM 40%, UKIP 27%.