There is a new(ish) Harris poll in this morning’s Metro. Topline figures are CON 36%(+3), LAB 26%(+2), LDEM 28%(-4). The changes are from a poll a week ago, thought the fieldwork actually overlapped with one, which was conducted between the 28th April and 4th May, despite having a sample size of 786. I have no idea why Harris take so long with their fieldwork, I expect TNS BMRB to be slower as they conduct face-to-face surveys, but online surveys should be fast!

I don’t know if this is Harris’s final call, or they will have a more up-to-date poll tonight. Most companies should be publishing their final calls tonight, the exception will be Ipsos MORI, whose final poll will be in tomorrow’s Evening Standard.


There is also a Harris poll for the Daily Mail out tonight – the topline figures there are CON 33%(+1), LAB 24%(-1), LDEM 32%(+2). No vast change there, though Harris are showing a much lower level of support for Labour than some other pollsters, and the highest Lib Dem score we’ve seen from any company for about a week and a half.

I’m not aware of any other polls tonight – there have been rumours of a MORI poll, but as far as I can tell this comes from a comment by Kevin McGuire talking about an old poll that has been misconstrued.


-->

I didn’t expect any other polls tonight, but there’s also a new Harris poll in the Daily Mail. The topline results, with changes from the previous Harris poll, are CON 34%(+3), LAB 26%(nc), LDEM 29%(-1), so a slight movement back towards the Conservatives, but nothing that couldn’t just be sample variation. The full report is here. The fieldwork was conducted “Thursday night and today”, so is presumably mostly or entirely after the second debate.


Ipsos MORI’s main election polling seems to be their marginals polling for Reuters, so we haven’t actually had a national voting intention poll from them so far during the campaign. Their April political monitor is now out, and shows the big Lib Dem boost from the debate that we have seen across all pollsters. Topline figures are CON 32%(-3), LAB 28%(-2), LDEM 32%(+11). There is presumably also a collapse in support for minor parties, who other companies have also shown fading.

The fieldwork was done on the 18th-19th, so at the same time as the ComRes poll yesterday showing the 9 point Tory lead.

There is also a new Harris poll in the Metro. The topline figures there are CON 31%(-5), LAB 26%(-1), LDEM 30%(+7). Fieldwork there was between the 14th and 19th April.


ComRes’s poll tonight has topline figures of CON 35%(-1), LAB 29%(-2), LDEM 21%(+2). There is no sign of the Conservative manifesto boost here… but neither should there be, ComRes’s daily polls are running a day behind YouGov’s ones and the fieldwork for ComRes was done on the 12th and 13th, so much would have been before the Conservative manifesto launch and the press reaction to it. ComRes’s daily polling is just Mon-Wed, so we won’t have another GB poll from them until after the leaders debate (though they are doing some sort of instant reaction poll straight after tomorrow’s debate).

There is also a new marginals polls in the Telegraph, carried out by Crosby/Textor in 100 marginal seats. We don’t have tables for the poll or details of the methodology and obviously we do not have a national poll to compare it to so as to draw comparisons between marginal and other seats, so we can’t tell much from it. Even if we did though, the results are not particularly enlightening – it shows a swing of 6 points in marginal seats, so not vastly different from any of the other marginal seat polls we’ve seen.

UPDATE: According to Mike Smithson the ComRes daily poll is a “rolly-poll” like Populus did in 2005 – each day they interview a fresh sample of 500 people, with the figures reported each day being a combination of the two most recent samples – this means half of each day’s figures are actually the same as the previous days figures. The methodological implications are firstly that the polls are not independent – if you get a funny looking poll and the next days agrees with it, it doesn’t really support it, because it’s half the same poll (it also means one really dodgy sample will pollute multiple polls, in 2005 Populus had the misfortune of getting one ropey sample over a bank holiday weekend, which lead to them having outlandish results in their poll for several days as it worked its way through). The second problem it raises is that they only have 24 hours to contact each day’s sample of 500, leaving hardly any time to re-contract people who do not answer the phone.

UPDATE 2: There is also a Harris poll in the Metro. Topline figures are CON 37%(nc), LAB 29%(+2), LDEM 18%(-4). I can’t see any fieldwork dates in the Metro report, so don’t know when it was actually done.