TNS and ComRes have released final London polls yesterday, YouGov have released final Scottish and Welsh polls. Here’s a quick run down…
- TNS in London have Sadiq Khan ahead of Zac Goldsmith in the first round by 45% to 33% (Caroline Pidgeon is third on 7%, followed by Peter Whittle on 5%). Once second preferences are reallocated Khan would win by 57% to 43%. (tabs)
- ComRes in London have Khan ahead by a similar margin – he leads by 45% to 36% in the first round, with Caroline Pidgeon and Sian Berry both on 6%. Once second preferences are included Khan wins by 56% to 44%. (tabs)
- YouGov in Wales have final figures of constituency: CON 21%, LAB 33%, LD 8%, Plaid 19%, UKIP 16%; regional CON 20%, LAB 31%, LD 6%, Plaid 20%, UKIP 16%. (tabs).
- YouGov in Scotland have final figures of constituency CON 19%, LAB 22%, LDEM 7%, SNP 48%; regional CON 20%, LAB 19%, LD 6%, SNP 41%, GRN 9% (tabs).
A quick update on polls in the weekend papers. The Independent on Sunday is no more, but the Sunday edition of the Indy’s website seems to be continuing with their monthly ComRes online poll (shared with the Sunday Mirror). Topline voting intention figures are CON 35%(-3), LAB 30%(+1), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 16%(nc), GRN 4%(nc).
ComRes still have the Conservatives ahead in the polls, but their online polls are consistently the most favourable for the Tories – the Tory lead here (and the contrast with other companies polls) are solely down to likelihood to vote weighting; before running the answers through ComRes’s turnout model Labour were ahead. The trend is exactly the same as in other polls, a deteriorating Conservative position. It’s a five point Tory lead this month, but a month ago it was nine points, a month before that fourteen points. Full tabs are here.
There was also a new Scottish poll by Panelbase, carried out for the Sunday Times. Holyrood constituency VI is SNP 51%, LAB 19%, CON 18%, LDEM 5%; regional VI is SNP 47%, CON 19%, LAB 18%, LDEM 4%, GRN 8%. Panelbase have Labour and the Conservatives essentially neck-and-neck in Scotland (and given the distribution of the vote and the impact of the regional vote, it may well produce more Tory MSPs than Labour ones) – this is something that YouGov Scottish polls have also shown, but Scottish polling from other companies has tended to show Labour in a clear second place.
Following the MORI poll earlier today, there is also a fresh ComRes voting intention poll and a new Survation EU referendum poll.
ComRes for the Daily Mail is in line with what we’ve seen already in the YouGov, ICM and MORI polls – the Conservative lead has collapsed. Topline figures are CON 37%(-1), LAB 35%(+4), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 9%(-3). The poll was conducted Friday to Sunday, at the same time as IDS’s resignation. Tabs are here
Meanwhile a new Survation EU referendum poll has topline figures of REMAIN 46%(-2), LEAVE 35%(+2), DON’T KNOW 19%(nc). Fieldwork was again at the end of last week (so before the Belgium bombings) and changes are since February. The poll was conducted by telephone, so in this case the robust Remain lead in telephone polls remains mostly undiminished. Full tabs for that are here
Ipsos MORI’s monthly poll for the Evening Standard follows the trend we’ve seen in other recent polls of a tightening gap between Conservative and Labour. Topline figures are CON 36%(-3), LAB 34%(+1), LDEM 10%, UKIP 11%, GRN 3%.
They also echo YouGov’s recent polling in showing strongly negative figures for George Osborne. Just after IDS’s resignation YouGov found Osborne’s ratings dropping to 17% good job, 58% bad job. MORI find very similar in their poll: before the budget they had Osborne’s net approval rating at minus 6, now it has slumped to minus 33 (27% satisfied, 60% disatisfied). The budget gets a solid thumbs down in the MORI poll, 53% think it is bad for the country, 30% good for the country.
There was also new ComRes EU referendum poll yesterday, conducted for ITV. Topline voting intention figures were REMAIN 48%, LEAVE 41%, Don’t know 11%. The seven point lead for remain is the smallest ComRes have so far shown in their telephone polls on the referendum (indeed, apart from the unusual ORB poll earlier this month it’s the lowest lead any telephone poll has shown for Remain). Full details are here. It will be interesting to see what the EU voting intention figures are in the MORI poll, and whether that big gulf between online and telephone EU polling is narrowing a little.
ComRes have their monthly online poll for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror tomorrow. Topline voting intention figures are CON 38%(-3), LAB 29%(+2), LDEM 7%(-2), UKIP 16%(+1), GRN 4%(+1). The Conservative lead has dropped five points since last month, but that still leaves it at nine points (ComRes’s online polls tend to produce the largest Conservative leads of all the companies, largely because of ComRes’s new turnout filter that is based on socio-economic data. The nine point lead is actually the smallest ComRes have shown in their online polls since the election – up until now they’ve shown a Conservative lead between 11 and 15 points). Full tabs are here.
Ahead of the budget there were also a few economic questions. More people think George Osborne is doing a bad job as Chancellor (41%) than a good job (31%), but Cameron & Osborne have a 16 point lead over Corbyn & McDonnell on which pair people would trust to run the country’s economy (45% to 29%).