Two new polls tonight (YouGov/Sunday Times is still to come) and both showing six point Labour leads and UKIP increasing their support.
The online ComRes poll in the Independent on Sunday/Sunday Mirror has topline figures of CON 29%(-3), LAB 35%(nc), LDEM 7%(-2), UKIP 20%(+4). The 20% for UKIP is the highest that ComRes have shown to date, the 7 for the Lib Dems the lowest.
Meanwhile Opinium in the Observer have topline figures of CON 30%(-2), LAB 36%(+3), LDEM 7%(-3), UKIP 18%(+3). Opinium tend to show higher UKIP scores anyway, so this isn’t as record-breaking as the ComRes figure, they’ve shown UKIP at 20 and 21 in the past.
Looking at the broader trend UKIP do appear to be picking up more support. Ipsos MORI this week also showed them on the up, YouGov have been showing increased UKIP support in their daily polls since the second debate. As ever, be careful about ascribing changes in support to particular events. The increase in UKIP support seems to have started after the second Farage-Clegg debate, but it also comes with expenses back in the news, and with the European elections approaching and the consequential increased publicity for the party.
ComRes have a new poll of European voting intentions in the People tomorrow. Topline figures for those 10/10 certain to vote are CON 22%(+1), LAB 30%(+2), LDEM 8%(nc), UKIP 30%(nc), Others 10%. Changes are from the last ComRes European poll about a month ago.
The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, so was partly before the Clegg-Farage debate.
UPDATE: There are crossbreaks on the tables for before and after the debates – I would urge extreme caution into reading too much into this and going off with the idea that the debate had this or that effect.
One the political make up of the early and late parts of the sample are different (pre-debate had more 2010 Tory voters), VI from the two halves of the sample are based on only around 300 and 450 people so big margins of error, and more importantly dividing at 8pm is too soon. In any event it’s not just the people who watch directly, it’s the media coverage afterwards.
UPDATE 2: There is also a new Survation poll in the Mail on Sunday which has Westminster voting intentions of CON 29%(-5), LAB 36%(+1), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 20%(+4) and European voting intentions of CON 21%(-6), LAB 34%(+2), LDEM 9%(+2), UKIP 27%(+4). Fieldwork for the Survation poll was done on Friday, so wholly after the Clegg-Farage debate.
There are two new voting intention polls tonight, ComRes in the Indy and YouGov in the Sun (tweeted by the Sun Politics team here).
The YouGov/Sun figures show another small Labour lead, CON 36%, LAB 38%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 10%. This comes after the Labour lead shrinking to one point in YouGov’s weekend poll for the Sunday Times.
The ComRes/Indy poll on the other hand has figures of CON 31%(+1), LAB 36%(-2), LDEM 9%(-1), UKIP 11%(nc). Compared to last month’s poll it does actually show Labour’s lead falling by three points, but that may just be because last month’s lead was a bit larger than usual. The average lead in ComRes telephone polls over the last nine months is five points – just like today’s.
So where does that leave us? Well, the reality is that because polls have a margin of error the messages will usually be a bit contradictory, that’s why it’s best to wait a bit and look at the averages. The Populus, Survation and YouGov polls do suggest a reduced lead, ComRes doesn’t. Even if there is one, it doesn’t mean it will last. Time will tell.
The monthly online ComRes poll for the Sunday Indy and Sunday Mirror is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 32%(nc), LAB 35%(-2), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 16%(+1). Tabs are here.
The poll also asked about European election voting intentions and found toplines of CON 21%, LAB 28%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 30%. Despite widespread speculation that UKIP could win the European elections, most recent polling has actually shown Labour ahead, so this is a good poll for UKIP (note that this poll shows some rather extreme shifts from the previous ComRes European poll, but the crosstabs in that poll looked exceptionally odd, so I wouldn’t read much into the changes).
The fortnightly Opinium/Observer poll is also out tonight, and has toplines of CON 30%(+1), LAB 35%(+1), LDEM 10%(nc), UKIP 16%(-3)
As we rather expected from this morning’s tables, the monthly ComRes telephone poll for the Indy has the Labour lead up again after the unusual one point lead a month ago. Topline figures are CON 30%(-2), LAB 38%(+5), LDEM 10%(+1), UKIP 11%(-3). Part of this will be simply a reversion to the mean after the unusual poll last month, but even accounting for that its a larger than usual Labour lead from ComRes’s phone polls.
Meanwhile the daily YouGov/Sun poll has topline figures of CON 34%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%.