Following on from the two point and four point leads in the Ashcroft and Populus polls today the other two voting intention polls tonight both have six point Labour leads.
ComRes‘s telephone poll for the Indy has topline figures of CON 27%(-3), LAB 33%(+1), LDEM 8%(+1), UKIP 17%(-1)
Meanwhile YouGov‘s daily poll for the Sun has toplines of CON 33%, LAB 39%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%
The monthly online ComRes poll for the Independent on Sunday and Sunday Mirror is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 31%(-1), LAB 34%(nc), LDEM 9%(+2), UKIP 17%(-1), GRN 4%. Changes are from ComRes’s last poll a month ago, and don’t show any significant movement.
I sometimes see people asking if asking “if there was an election tomorrow” produces different results from “the next election in May 2015″. ComRes did a split sample this month asking and asked the two halves with the two different wordings: there was no significant difference. Asking about next May produced a Tory score one point higher, UKIP two points lower… but these differences could easily be normal sample error (especially given they were only to half sized samples).
If you really wanted to test if the different wordings had any effect you’d need to test on a much bigger scale to differentiate any effect from normal sample error, especially since any difference is likely to be small. Personally I doubt it does make any difference, but would always ask “tomorrow” on principle, just to emphasize that a poll really is a snapshot of opinion NOW, not a prediction of opinion next year.
Opinium’s fortnightly poll in the Observer is also out tonight, and they have toplines of CON 30%(+1), LAB 34%(-1), LDEM 9%(+2), UKIP 17%(-1).
This morning’s YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 36%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 13%. Full tabs are here.
YouGov also asked specifically about the reshuffle for the Times. Usually reshuffles are essentially a lot of people the public have never heard of being replaced by a group of other people the public have never heard of. This reshuffle was at least unusual in that it involves some ministers – like Michael Gove and William Hague – who the majority of respondents will actually recognise and have an opinion about. YouGov found that the majority of people thought that Hague had done a good job as Foreign Secretary… and that Gove had done a bad one as Education Secretary. 63% of people, including a majority of Conservative voters, thought it was right to remove him from the Education role.
Asked about how well represented women are at the top of the Conservative party, 36% now say they are very or fairly well represented. That’s up from 29% at the start of the week, but is still well below the 48% who think women are well represented in the Labour party. Will it make any immediate difference? Probably not – in the months and years to come being less male-dominated will probably improve the Conservative party’s image a bit, but it’s certainly no magic bullet. You can see at the top of this post that today’s voting intention figures are wholly in line with those from before the reshuffle.
The monthly ComRes telephone poll is out tonight and has topline figures of CON 30%(nc), LAB 32%(-3), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 18%(+4). Changes are since the last ComRes telephone poll, just before the European election.
Meanwhile the daily YouGov poll for the Sun has topline figures of CON 35%, LAB 37%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 12%. The two point Labour lead there is the lowest that YouGov have shown for about a fortnight, but again, not beyond the normal margin or error for an average lead of four points or so.
Two polls showing a reduced Labour lead of two points, plus the Ashcroft poll showing a Tory lead. There will be a temptation to interpret this as a “Juncker effect”. On the other hand Populus’s poll this morning had a four point Labour lead, the changes in ComRes are month-on-month, so don’t need to be related to the last couple of days and there’s really nothing here yet that couldn’t be normal sample variation. For now I would’t read too much into it.
Three new polls so far today – the two regular GB polls from Ashcroft and Populus and ComRes’s monthly marginals poll. Lord Ashcroft’s weekly poll today has topline figures of CON 33%, LAB 31%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 15%. This is the first Conservative lead in a poll since that brief narrowing in mid-May. As ever, don’t get too excited about a single poll, it could be repeated in other polling and be the first sign of a genuine movement… or it could just be a blip. Meanwhile Populus’s twice weekly poll this morning had rather more typical figures of CON 33%, LAB 37%, LDEM 10%, UKIP 12% (tabs here.)
Finally ComRes have released the second of their regular polls of marginal seats. I wrote about the first here. ComRes’s regular marginal polls cover the 40 most marginal Con v Lab seats, 25 held by the Tories, 15 held by Labour. At the last election the vote in these seats was CON 37%, LAB 37%. Today’s poll has voting intentions of CON 31%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 17%. This is a swing of 2.5% from Conservative to Labour, the equivalent of a 2 point Conservative lead in a national poll. Hence it suggests the Conservatives are doing better in the Con-Lab marginals than in national polls (the poll shows some movement towards Labour in the marginals since May, but the previous poll was taken during that brief narrowing of the polls in mid-May, so the change reflects the national picture). The ComRes marginal polls remain in contrast to Lord Ashcroft’s most recent marginal polls which suggested the marginal picture is much the same as the national picture.