ComRes have a poll in Sunday’s Independent and the Sunday Mirror. Most interestingly, it found that people agreed by 45% to 39% that John Bercow was right to refuse to invite Donald Trump to address the Commons, but also that people thought by 47% to 37% that the Queen should meet Donald Trump if he visits the country. As we’ve already seen elsewhere, the British public have little sympathy for Donald Trump’s immigration policy (33% think he was right, 52% think he was wrong) though it’s worth noting that the question wording went considerably wider than Trump’s actual policy (ComRes asked about halting immigration from “Muslim-majority” countries in general, whereas Donald Trump’s policy deals with seven specific countries they claim have an issue with terrorism or vetting).

The poll also had voting intention figures of CON 41%, LAB 26%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 11%, GRN 4%. This is the first ComRes voting intenton poll since way back in June 2016 – after one of the poorer performing polls in the EU referendum (the final ComRes poll had Remain eight points ahead), they paused their voting intention polls while they conducted a review into their methods. They have now recommenced voting intention polls with – as far as I can tell – no changes to their pre-referendum methods. ComRes’s view appears to be that the referendum was an exceptional event, and while the turnout model they adopted after the polling errors of 2015 worked badly there, it worked well at the London mayoral election, so is being retained for Westminster polls. For better or for worse, the ComRes results seem to be very much in line with those from other companies, with a Conservative lead in the mid-teens.

Full tabs for the ComRes poll are here.

While I’m here, I should also mention a BMG Scottish poll that came out at the start of the week (I’ve been laid low with a heavy cold). Voting intention in a second independence referendum stood at YES 49%(+3.5%), NO 49%(-3.5%). This is the lowest lead for NO that any Scottish Indy poll has recorded since the EU referendum. This was interpreted by the Herald as a response to Theresa May’s announcement of her negotiating stance on Brexit. I think that is somewhat premature – so far we’ve had two Scottish polls conducted since May’s speech, a Panelbase poll showing a very small (and not statistically significant) movement towards NO and a BMG poll showing a somewhat larger (but still barely significant) movement towards YES. In short, there is nothing yet that couldn’t be normal sample variation – wait for the next few polls on attitudes towards Scottish independence before concluding whether there is or is not any movement. Full tabs are here


ComRes have a poll in the Independent/Sunday Mirror tonight. The finding that has got the most attention is a question asking who people think would do “a better job at managing the NHS this winter”. 31% of people picked Jeremy Corbyn and Labour, 43% of people picked Theresa May and the Conservatives.

This is a very unusual result. The NHS is, essentially, Labour’s issue of last resort. Whatever happens, however bad things look, the public will almost always say they trust Labour more on the NHS. Over on Ipsos MORI’s website they have data on the question going back to 1978… and you have to go back to 1978 to find the Tories ahead. If you go back to the time of the Brown government when the Conservatives were on a high there were a couple of polls from other companies when the Tories scraped a lead on the NHS, but it is extremely rare. A twelve point Tory lead on the NHS would be unheard of.

The reason for this strange result is probably the wording. YouGov ask “best party on issues” regularly, and still consistently find Labour ahead. Just this month they found 28% trusted Labour most on the NHS compared to 20% for the Tories. The difference with the ComRes question is that they did not ask just which party people trusted on the NHS, the choice was between “Theresa May & the Conservatives” or “Jeremy Corbyn & Labour” to manage the NHS. The introduction of the two leaders into the question probably explains why May & the Conservatives were ahead.

While this probably explains the difference, it should be scant comfort for Labour. If the mention of Jeremy Corbyn in a question is enough to make respondents doubt whether they’d trust Labour with the NHS – normally a banker for them – then imagine what he would do to people pondering whether they would trust Labour on the economy, security or whatever.

The other questions on the NHS were far more typical. While 71% agreed that the NHS provides a high standard of care, by 47% to 36% people did think the Red Cross were right to say the NHS was in crisis. That May/Conservative lead on the NHS should not be taken as an endorsement of their management either: only 12% of people agreed that Jeremy Hunt was doing well as Health secretary and 56% of people agreed with a statement that NHS care is worse than ten years ago.

Another question asked about high pay and is more encouraging for Jeremy Corbyn. A YouGov poll in the week asked about a pretty tough policy on high pay (a maximum earnings limit of £1m a year) and got a negative response: only 31% thought it a good idea, 44% a bad idea. ComRes asked about a much subtler policy (giving tax benefits or government contracts to companies with a maximum ratio of 20 to 1 between top and average salaries) and this got a much better reception, 57% thought they should, 30% thought the government should not interfere.

Opinium also have a new poll out tonight for the Observer – details here. They have topline voting intention figures of CON 38%(nc), LAB 30%(-1), LDEM 7%(+1), UKIP 14%(+1). The eight point lead is lower than most other polls show, but this seems to be a consistent pattern from Opinium – presumably for methodological reasons – rather than a drop since their previous poll.


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It’s the eve of the referendum, so we have a flurry of late polls. Later on this evening we will have figures from ComRes and YouGov (Ipsos MORI’s final poll is normally in the Standard, so will probably be out tomorrow morning), already we have final figures from TNS and Opinium.

Opinium have topline figures of REMAIN 44%, LEAVE 45%, Undecided 9%. Leave are ahead by the tiniest of margins, but clearly the two sides are within the margin of error of each other. Full tabs are here.

TNS‘s final referendum poll also has Leave ahead, this time by two points. Topline figures here are REMAIN 41%, LEAVE 43%, Undecided or won’t vote 16%. Note that unlike TNS’s last few polls their headline figures here are NOT weighted for turnout – with their turnout model they would have been Remain 42%, Leave 49%. Full tabs are here.

I will update later once ComRes and YouGov publish. In the meantime both of the non-British Polling Council companies who produced more unorthodox polls last week have produced updated figures – SurveyMonkey have final figures of REMAIN 50%, LEAVE 47%; Qriously (the company sampling via smartphone ads) has final figures of REMAIN 37%, LEAVE 51, Don’t know 12%. Again, make of that what you will.

UPDATE: The ComRes and YouGov eve-of-referendum polls are now also out. Whereas TNS and Opinium both had Leave leads, ComRes and YouGov both show Remain ahead (albeit, by different margins):

ComRes for the Daily Mail have topline figures of REMAIN 54%, LEAVE 46%, a widening of the Remain lead after their last poll showing Remain and Leave within a point of each other. ComRes have reallocated don’t knows based on respondents’ views of the impact of Brexit on the economy, which looks like it boosted Remain by a point or so. Full tabs are here.

YouGov for the Times have topline figures of REMAIN 51%, LEAVE 49% – so considerably closer. The YouGov poll now includes a turnout weight (though it made no difference at all to the topline) and a squeeze question, which also bumped Remain up by a point. Full tables are here. On YouGov’s website they’ve also updated the multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) model of referendum voting using all their data, which they first posted earlier in the week, that is now also pointing towards a small lead for Remain.

Note that all four of the polls here include Northern Ireland. Most general election polls don’t, and so polls during the EU campaign have varied on whether they do or do not include NI – all these four do.

UPDATE2: Two more polls published on the day itself. Note that these polls were conducted before polls opened, they are only published today. It’s illegal to publish polls conducted on the day until polls close, but perfectly fine to publish polls conducted before polls opened.

Ipsos MORI‘s final poll has topline figures of REMAIN 52%, LEAVE 48%, putting Remain back ahead after a leave lead in MORI’s penultimate poll. MORI have slightly changed their turnout filter for their final poll, basing it on how likely people say they are to vote and how important they say the result is to them. Full tabs are here.

Finally, and a little surprisingly, Populus have produced a final call poll. Populus’s Andrew Cooper has been working with the StrongerIn campaign so the company haven’t been putting out regular polls during the campaign, but they have produced final topline figures of REMAIN 55%, LEAVE 45%. Unexpectedly given the topline results the poll was conducted online (completely messing up that “phone & YouGov saying in, other online saying out” pattern). Populus haven’t released tables yet, so I’ve no details of the weightings or adjustments used.


Two more polls today, two more significant swings towards Leave:

  • TNS’s latest poll, conducted online, has topline figures of REMAIN 40%(-1), LEAVE 47%(+4), Undecided or Wouldn’t Vote 13%(-3). The changes since their previous poll in mid-May probably understate the move towards Leave a little as TNS have made some adjustments to their methodology (asking about postal votes and if people are registered and weighting by attitudes towards immigration). Under the old methodology the poll would have shown a ten point lead for leave. Tabs are here.
  • A new ComRes telephone poll for the Sun has topline figures of REMAIN 46%(-6), LEAVE 45%(+4), Don’t know 9%(+2). Again, we see the same strong movement towards Leave that we’ve seen in other polls since the end of May.

The recent shift in favour of Leave is now undeniable, but the polls are still inconsistent in terms of whether that shift has left Leave with a clear lead, or the race neck-and-neck. Opinium and ComRes now have the race neck-and-neck; YouGov, ICM and TNS have Leave in the lead (and ORB have both, depending on if you look at their figures for all voters, or likely voters).

The result now depends on whether there is a shift back towards the status quo over the final week (or indeed, on the day itself). If you think back to the Scottish referendum there was a movement towards YES in the month before, and then Scottish voters swung back towards NO over the last fortnight. That movement towards the status quo on the final straight is a common pattern in referendums across the globe: as it gets close to polling day some voters recoil from the perceived risks of whatever unknown they are voting upon. Time will tell if we see a similar pattern over the next week and a bit.


ComRes had a new EU telephone poll in this morning’s Daily Mail. Topline figures are REMAIN 52%(-1), LEAVE 41%(+3), Don’t know 7%(-2). Tabs are here.

Note that this poll is now adjusted for likelihood to vote, using ComRes’s turnout model based on socio-economic factors, like age and class (the changes are adjusted to reflect this). Note that adjusting turnout based on ComRes’s model has marginally increased support for Remain (before the adjustment the figures would have been 51 and 41).

There’s a broad assumption that differental turnout is more likely to favour Leave in the EU referendum campaign, largely based on the fact that polls normally show Leave voters claiming they are more likely to be 10/10 certain to vote, and that Leave voters are older. I’m not so sure. Self-reported likelihood is a blunt tool (people who say they are 10/10 certain to vote are not really much more likely than 8/10 or 9/10 people), and the age skew that should favour Leave in terms of turnout (older people are more likely to vote, and more Leave) will to some degree be cancelled out by the social class and educational skews that favour Remain (middle class people and graduates are more likely to vote, and more Remain).

On the subject of education, YouGov also had an interesting article up today. Like Populus and ICM they have carried out parallel telephone and online surveys, but unlike other such tests which have found a big gulf between phone and online results YouGov found results that were very similar to each other: both phone and online polls found a small lead for Leave.

This result wasn’t just the weighting (even before weighting the raw sample was a lot more “leave” than the raw samples from other phone polls) suggesting it is something to do with the sampling. Obviously we can’t tell for certain what the reason is – the most obvious difference is that the YouGov poll was conducted over the period of a fortnight, so was slower than most telephone polls and there was more opportunity to ring back people who were unavailable on the first call – but there could be other differences to do with quotas or the proportion of mobile calls (the YouGov poll was about a third mobile, two-thirds landline. My understanding is most phone polls are about 50/50 now, though MORI is about 20/80).

Looking at the actual demographics of the sample YouGov highlight the difference between their landline sample and the samples for the Populus paper looking at phone/online differences – specifically on education. In the Populus telephone samples between 44-46% of people had degrees, whereas the actual figure in the Census and Annual Population Survey is around 30%. The YouGov phone sample had a lower proportion of people with degrees to begin with, and weighted it to the national figure.

There is a clear correlation between education and attitudes to the EU referendum (in the YouGov polls there was a Leave lead of about 30 points among people who left school at 16 and a Remain lead of 33 points among those who were in educated beyond the age of twenty. This is partially to do with age, but it remains true even within people of the same age) so samples are too educated or not educated enough it could easily make a difference. As it is we’ve only got education data for the Populus polling – we don’t know if there’s the same skew in other phone polls, or how much of a difference it would make if corrected, but different levels of education within achieved samples is a further hypothesis that could explain that ongoing difference between phone and telephone samples for the EU referendum.