The patterns from last night seem to be a thumping victory for the SNP in Scotland, Labour heading for victory in Wales. In the English local elections the Liberal Democrats are suffering badly, facing extreme losses in Northern cities and patchier losses elsewhere. The Conservatives are experiencing modest losses to Labour, but these are being cancelled out by gains from the Lib Dems.
This afternoon we have the rest of Wales, Scotland and the locals before counting starts on the referendum at 4pm.
Finally, YouGov have released data from polling on election day (a sort of online exit-poll) here.
There is one final poll on the AV referendum. Opinium for the Evening Standard have figures of YES 36%, NO 64%.
Next stop results. Polls close at 10pm. Some local councils, and some of Scotland and Wales are counting overnight, but results will be relatively slow going because of the need to validate the local/Scottish/Welsh papers AND referendum ballot papers. The Press Association’s estimated declaration times suggest we won’t have anything till around midnight (Sunderland and Tameside are the first councils expected to declare, Bridgend the first Welsh seat), and apart from then little until 1am. There’s unlikely to be anything in Scotland till 2am.
The referendum count starts at 4pm tomorrow.
As far as I am aware there are NO exit polls tonight.
UPDATE: There is also a final Scottish Parliament poll in tonight’s Daily Mail, conducted by Progressive Scottish opinion (while it’s being published tonight, it isn’t an exit poll – the fieldwork was conducted over the weekend, continuing up until Tuesday). Topline figures are constituency: CON 12%, LAB 26%, LDEM 4%, SNP 51%. Regional: CON 12%, LAB 22%, LDEM 3%, SNP 53%, Green 5%. A thirty-one point lead for the SNP in the regional vote seems, to put it politely, somewhat unlikely.
One more final poll for the referendum tomorrow – YouGov for the Sun have topline figures of YES 40%, NO 60%. That’s in the same sort of ball park as YouGov’s AV polling over the last fortnight or so, a very substantial NO lead (unless the polls are horribly, horribly wrong a NO victory appears a certainty) but not as large as suggested by ComRes and ICM. The poll was conducted yesterday and today, with a sample of 5,725.
There is apparently also an Angus Reid poll on AV due out tonight – I do not know when or where.
To avoid confusion, people are also tweeting a poll from the Metro apparently showing a 4 point lead for Yes. I’ve no idea of the veracity of the poll, but it is of readers of Metro under the age of 44, so is not intended to be a nationally representative poll or a prediction of the overall result.
UPDATE: The final Angus Reid poll on AV is now out, and has YES on 39%, NO on 61%
ICM’s final call poll for the AV referendum is very similar to the ComRes poll yesterday. Topline figures are YES 32%, NO 68% – a landside victory for NO.
The poll included respondents from Northern Ireland and was conducted on Monday and Tuesday (the Guardian report says somewhat cryptically “The bank holiday made it more difficult to reach some voters, but figures for the state of the parties have been adjusted to take account of any imbalance in the sample” – which sounds intriguing, but I expect just means “it was weighted”)
ICM also included standing voting intention, with topline figures of CON 36%(+1), LAB 37%(nc), LDEM 15%(nc)
Adrian Masters at ITV Wales has put up the results of YouGov’s final call for Wales. Full tabs are here, topline figures are as follows:
Welsh Assembly Constituency: CON 20%, LAB 47%, LDEM 9%, Plaid 18%
Welsh Assembly Regional: CON 19%, LAB 43%, LDEM 8%, Plaid 18%, UKIP 7%
Denis Balsom, ITV Wales’s psephologist, has a seat projection based on these of Labour 31 seats, Conservative 13 seats, Plaid 11 seats and Lib Dems 5. YouGov have referendum voting in Wales as YES 43%, NO 57%.
I am at rehearsals for the BBC election night coverage at evening, so won’t be about regularly to update on the final call polls. There should be final Scottish and AV polls from YouGov (there was a YouGov poll last night on AV giving NO an 18 point lead – suggesting that 10 point lead at the weekend was an outlier – but there is a final call poll still to come), and some polling from Angus Reid and ICM.