Three new polls over the last few days. Firstly, the regular ICM poll for the Guardian has topline figures of CON 43%(+1), LAB 40%(+1), LDEM 8%(nc). Fieldwork was over the weekend and changes are since the start of the month. There is no signficiant change from last month, but it is the fifth ICM poll in a row to show a (very small) Tory lead. The full tables are here.

The ICM poll also contained a couple of Brexit questions. By 43% to 38% people were opposed to the idea of extending the transition period beyond 2020 (as you might expect, this largely split along Remain/Leave lines). On the customs union, 35% of people wanted Britain to Leave the customs union, 24% wanted Britain to stay, 26% wanted a compromise. I suspect many respondents do not have a good idea what the Customs Union is, and that questions like this are heavily influenced by the wording. As it is, it once again splits very much down Remain/Leave lines – the reason that leaving the customs union came up ahead was because most Leavers picked it, while Remainers were more evenly split between staying and a compromise.

Secondly there was a new BMG poll for the Independent. Topline figures there were CON 39%(nc), LAB 39%(+1), LDEM 10%(-1). Fieldwork was right at the start of May, before the local elections, and changes are since mid-April. Full results are here

Finally, at the weekend there was a new online Survation poll. Fieldwork was Tues-Thurs last week and topline voting intention figures with changes from April were CON 41%(+1), LAB 40%(nc), LDEM 8%(-1). As regular poll-followers will know, Survation tend to produce figures that are more favourable to Labour than average, so while this poll too shows Labour and Conservative neck-and-neck, it’s very much in line with the trend that most other companies have shown. Essentially, Survation have gone from showing a Labour lead of around 5 points late last year, to showing the parties neck-and-neck now. Companies who were showing the parties neck-and-neck last year are now showing the Tories with a small lead. The overall leads are different, but the trend is the same. Full tabs for the Survation poll are here.

Survation also asked voting intention in a hypothetical second referendum (the only company who regularly publishes this with proper likelihood to vote) – topline figures there were Remain 50%, Leave 50%.


643 Responses to “Latest ICM, BMG and Survation polls”

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  1. The ERG can call a vote of confidence but May won’t necessarily lose it.

    http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-44175169

    The end of the following article makes it sound like May is ready to justify what she wants to go for.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/the-week-theresa-may-picked-a-side-on-brexit-bgb0zr66f

  2. COLIN @ BZ

    Fair comment re Grant but less so re Lab.

    I’m not aware of them wanting it to be under political control, but would want a supervisory committee to have the right of questioning the head.

    If they insisted on the incumbent Lab HMG appointing the head of the organisation then I would be as concerned as you are.

  3. Andrew,

    May be possible but only after WA voted down and it seems to me that Labour will vote against but not get the Soubrey/Clarke group to join them; which means the ERG lot will have to decide if to vote it down? I don’t think they will although in the end they will huff and puff on the way.

    Extended transition in all but name until the end of 2021 (if the EU allow) which takes us neatly to the cusp of a GE with different leaders of all 3 UK wide parties and maybe the SNP as well?

  4. CHARLES and others

    Below are pasted the final paragraphs of an analysis by Dr Hayward and Professor Phinnemore of QUB of the role of the EU in the GFA in the context of current Brexit negotiations.

    http://qpol.qub.ac.uk/impact-brexit-good-friday-agreement-review-light-current-state-play/

    “28. Northern Ireland’s peace was already fragile and trust between the parties was already weak before the Brexit referendum. That has been managed in recent times by a strong and close relationship between the British and Irish governments. Unfortunately this has been threatened by what has come alongside the process of Brexit, i.e. a combination of factors that are deeply toxic for Northern Ireland’s peace: re-politicisation of the border question (from both sides), a tussle between Great Britain and Ireland to speak on behalf of people in Northern Ireland, a diminution of the powers of the devolved administration, an uncertain economic future, and a return to rhetoric of crude nationalism on both sides.

    29. In addition, there are newly destabilising forces. The absence of devolved government. The growth of far-right elements in loyalism. The overly-close relationship between the DUP and the Conservative government. The exposure of weak management, poor judgement and possible corruption in the spending of public money (as in the Renewable Heating Initiative or the Social Investment Fund).

    30. It is important to bear in mind that the withdrawal negotiations are but the first stages of a long Brexit process. The negotiation of the future relationship between the UK and EU, the potential adjustments to the Protocol, and the ratification of the future UK-EU treaty will all be points of pressure upon the 1998 Agreement and the British-Irish relationship in particular.”

  5. Colin: I must say, I am surprised by Scott’s comments. I look forward to watching A Very English Scandal, and will have to report back on whether they seem fair. But judging by Russel T Davies’ previous work, I trust him to treat the subject matter respectfully.

  6. @BZ @ MRQ

    “If it even looks like BINO is on the cards Mogg and the ERG will bring May down overnight, I’m hearing the required letters are already in hand.

    If you’re correct then it will be interesting to see what the DUP do.”

    The DUP don’t get a vote in conservative leadership elections.

  7. BZ

    @”I’m not aware of them wanting it to be under political control,”

    I guess it all depends what you think Corbyn had in mind with his warning to “media barons” that “‘change is coming’”

    My own opinion is that the instinct of politicians of his persuasion when it comes to The Press is distinctly authoritarian and proscriptive.

    …….I hope we never find out what he meant-but I wouldn’t put money on us doing so.

    And the idea of Tom Watson being involved in controlling Press “witch hunts” is just a sick joke.

  8. ………….”wouldn’t put money on us NOT doing so ”

    !

  9. PETERW @BZ @ MRQ

    The DUP don’t get a vote in conservative leadership elections.

    I suspect everyone who posts here knows that. The interesting question is whether they will allow an ERG PM to take office. They are close to being as nutty as the ERG but if anything makes them blink it will be the prospect of a border poll they would have no power to stop and could lose.

  10. COLIN @ BZ

    No doubt Corbyn is hacked off by the behaviour of the gutter press – as well as the attitude of the supposedly Liberal press – but he has managed to contain his anger so far. I would accept that he might just be pushed further than he intends following the next UK GE campaign.

    I think that unlikely but should it happen it would not bother me.

  11. The DUP’s other fear must be a Corbyn government.

    So bringing down May in a no confidence vote might be a mistake. If she really wanted Brexit she should have told the DUP the border is in the Irish sea – accept that or Jezza is prime-minister.

  12. My impression is that DUP have a good relationship with May.

  13. @EOTW: “So bringing down May in a no confidence vote might be a mistake. If she really wanted Brexit she should have told the DUP the border is in the Irish sea – accept that or Jezza is prime-minister.”

    I think the DUP’s answer to that is: what will Corbyn do that is worse than that.

    The have ramped up their demands the more it has been clear that the UK will fold on everything. (Check the EU’s negotiating position if you doubt that.)

    The EU’s position is that the UK should agree to gross contradictions to its own sovereignty rather than show any flexibility itself.

    Our response should be to give up on any notions of a future friendship with the EU or any of its member states – or just surrender on Brexit. The EU has no concept of relating to the UK on an ordinary international law basis, but expects us to accept vassal state status or have no relationship whatsoever. “Partnership” requires respect and a measure of equality – but that is just not how the EU see the future.

    Still, just accept the EU demands over N. Ireland as reasonable. And any other demands they want to make.

    Personally, I’d rather Corbyn on the basis that he really couldn’t do any worse than such an approach – and at least Labour would have to take responsibility. Given its unstinting support to the EU throughout the negotiations, it deserves to get to wave the white flags itself.

  14. In fact what May is doing – in the recent change of last week – seems exactly what suits DUP.

  15. Mays recent brexit policy, apparently agreed now in cabinet, is that whatever backstop happens in NI will happen in GB. Ireland could be tempted by this – as it removes borders anywhere incl. Irish sea.
    EU may be unhappy . Lets see.
    The link I posted by Tony Connoly, RTE, discusses all this. (See last page on this thread).

  16. Colin

    I agree with you the socialism that Corbyn preaches is all about control be it industry,services or the media . Corbyn and his followers require obedience to the cause anybody or any organisation that is critical of the leader or his message is to be attacked or controlled.
    All nicely wrapped up of course in protecting the rights of celebrities not to be exposed apparently ,but really just reverting to norm ,media being nasty to leader media must be controlled .

  17. @ JonesInBangor

    “HS2 will just turn the West Midlands into a dormitory for London.”

    Sorry, quite an old comment now, but I had to respond. I suspect you’re not far from the truth there sadly, but mostly this reminded me of two nice old Daily Mash articles. Enjoy.

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/first-time-buyers-definition-of-london-increasingly-loose-20150724100413

    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/society/birmingham-only-city-shit-enough-for-londoners-20161007114998

  18. As someone who thought Corbyn would be a disaster – I am starting to like him.

  19. @PROFHOWARD
    “In fact what May is doing – in the recent change of last week – seems exactly what suits DUP.”

    Couldn’t agree more, the DUP can have there cake and eat it.

    @JOSEPH1832
    “I think the DUP’s answer to that is: what will Corbyn do that is worse than that.”

    Border referendum with UK Government indifferent to result. No more cash for NI. Generally backing Sinn Fein in every way (I am sure Corbyn would love to see Gaelic being taught on the Shankill).

    I don’t altogether disagree with you re EU demands but I would also say, what did you expect them to do?

    I have been bleating for sometime on this forum that the GFA and Brexit are not compatible. May should have said that at the beginning and as a reluctant Remainer during the referendum she might have got away with it (Obviously put in a more politically acceptable way).

  20. TURK

    I agree.

    I think we would pretty quickly see an attempt at political control of The Press.

    Everything about the Corbyn tendency suggests authoritarian control to me.

  21. JOSEPH1832 @ EOTW

    I think the DUP’s answer to that is: what will Corbyn do that is worse than that.

    I agree with that, but not the rest of your post.

    The leave tendency had 40 years to plan their approach but couldn’t be bothered to put in any work on it, as evidenced by the Chevening 3. To be fair, I don’t think BoJo believes in anything but himself, and probably doesn’t actually want to leave the EU but calculated wrongly that joining the leave campaign would be to his advantage.

    It is quite clear that none of the leavers [with the possible exception of Hannan and his support for EEA membership] had any plans, or at least no realistic ones, and some of them may even have believed their own propaganda. But what, if anything, did any of them do to prepare and plan for leaving, let alone working out an approach to resile or somehow honour the Belfast Agreement?

    Given no clarity of their aims coupled with their sense of entitlement, what approaches did they make to the EU or EC to get some clarity of what might be accepted?

    In that sense, May has played a blinder in attempting to get what they want but unsurprisingly has achieved nothing. This leaves her with her “precious union” position as her ace card.

    But given the shambles that HMG has created and the inconvenience caused to the remaining EU 27, what grounds do you have for suggesting that any of them are being unreasonable?

  22. From Britain Elects:

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 43 (+3)
    LAB: 39 (-1)
    LDEM: 6 (-1)
    UKIP: 4 (-1)

    via @OpiniumResearch
    Chgs. w/ 10 – 12 Apr

    I am no expert, but it looks like we are moving out of MOE territory.

  23. Andrew Myers

    Aggregated over a number of polls suggests a possible small lead, although not one which is bigger than the MOE of a lead in a single poll.

    Probably a similar lead to that of the last General Election.

  24. @Andrew Myers

    Do bear in mind the Conservatives are not getting more supporters – it’s the Labour vote going a little soft around the edges. These voters are moving to Don’t Know mostly.

    Evidence so far is that they are not switching to the Conservatives in any significant way.

  25. @BARBAZENZERO

    I agree with your post too. Therein lies the incompatibility of The GFA and Brexit.

    GFA stipulates no additional border controls
    Brexit talked specifically about taking control of our borders.

    EU and RoI have a huge investment in GFA but recognise that Brexit means borders therefore the only option is border in the Irish sea.

    Border in Irish sea makes a mockery of regaining sovereignty.

    I am a Remainer given to catastrophizing but really see no happy ending despite the reassurances of TOH et al. that all will be fine.

  26. Colin: I agree with you that there is an authoritarian streak running through Corbynism – but when have we ever had non-authoritarian politics in this country? The current Tories are very authoritarian. New Labour was pretty authoritarian in its later years. Thatcher’s electoral success owed as much to her social conservatism as the economic freedom she preached.

    Ultimately, I don’t think people care about freedom all that much. They care principally about the value of the pound in their pocket, and failing that, at least making sure that nobody else is getting preferential treatment.

    Incidentally, there is one piece of legislation coming round the corner that will significantly increase British people’s freedoms – the GDPR. Thank God that at least Brussels can give us some cover over this stuff. Oh, hang on…

  27. Compared with other May polls Opinium seems to have Con a touch high and LD a bit low but it confirms the Con lead. The way I do my monthly averages of all the polls gives Con a lead of 2.5% so far in May, up from 0.9 % in April and against a Lab lead of 0.3% in March.

    The Con / LD figures in the Opinium are offset by the BMG high figure for LD and low figure for Con in my averages which are for May so far –

    Con 41.7, Lab 39.2, LD 8.1.

    For companies which poll several times a month I put an average of their polls in the chart to prevent bias.

  28. EOTW

    “(I am sure Corbyn would love to see Gaelic being taught on the Shankill).”

    It would certainly be appropriate since Shankill is just an anglicised spelling of Seanchill which means Auld Kirk in Scots, or Old Church in English.

  29. people are starting to make the same mistake with Corbyn as we did Saddam, create a bogeyman based on our worst fears.

    I know the press do it because they don’t want a Labour Government and fear sells papers be it Corbyn, Statins or the Weather..

    I’d hope for better here but we seem to have a few who’s standard line is that Corbyn is the devil incarnate.

    Labour only need to do two things to neuter the press and neither requires control…

    One, extend the obligation to balance and neutrality that already exists for the broadcaster and two, extend VAT to Newspapers and magazines.

    Stop them being partisan and push down circulation and the jobs done.

    Peter.

  30. @Polltroll
    “Incidentally, there is one piece of legislation coming round the corner that will significantly increase British people’s freedoms – the GDPR.”

    It’s a pain in the backside for my chess club and presumably other organisations and small businesses who hold data about their members or customers. We have to draft a policy (and none of us are lawyers), and get explicit consent from everyone that we can hold basic information such as email addresses and phone numbers. There is no point to this. Such data is only used to tell people if there’s match on, or to pass on to counties etc who need to contact our players. It’s not going to be sold to telemarketers or anything.

    If there is a rogue chess club somewhere that does this, why not just make it an offence to do so, and leave everyone else alone? It’s the usual bureaucratic nonsense that puts an extra burden on normal people, and the odd rogue will easily find ways around the new system.

  31. Test

  32. @”Stop them being partisan and and push down circulation ”

    thus giving impetus to the death of printed newspapers & the trend to “news” from Social Media………..where regulated un partisan news and challenging objective analysis is ubiquitous !

  33. I actually stayed up late last night to watch the Royal Wedding. I’ve never actually watched a royal wedding before but felt compelled this time. It was a beautiful ceremony and I even got emotional a few times while watching and thinking of the majority in Perez v. Sharp.

  34. @ Old Nat

    “It would certainly be appropriate since Shankill is just an anglicised spelling of Seanchill which means Auld Kirk in Scots, or Old Church in English.”

    I’m genuinely curious about something. Ballot access. Do you have non-English ballots in Scotland and Wales? So if you want to request a ballot in Gaelic, can you do so?

  35. @Pete B where did your club get its GDPR legal advice from?

    I’m not a lawyer, but in the course of my work I have talked to one about GDPR.

    I’m fairly sure a chess club would be able to say that the legal basis for processing member contact details is contract (implicit, between member and the club), or if that doesn’t work certainly legitimate interests.

    Not sure why you think you need consent?

    The whole point of GDPR is you only need consent if you’re doing something unexpected and unreasonable. It’s not meant to be used willy-nilly.

    Honestly, there’s a lot of nonsense about GDPR going round. I think it is mainly caused by libertarian Silicon Valley types who don’t understand that every major industry is heavily regulated, and that is mainly why we don’t all die or get ill all the time. The Internet is no different.

    So for example, all the major internet companies are suddenly sending emails. There’s no need for them to under GDPR – lawyers are puzzled as to why they are sending them. They’re also throwing up consent boxes which to me are quite bizarre.

    What they *should* do is just stop doing unexpected weird things with our data. Declare in a privacy notice what they *do* do with our data and under what legal basis. And that’s it.

    I’m actually really impressed with the way GDPR is written, in that it should create a good user experience, and be a low burden for small organisations.

    We’ll only know for sure after it is implemented, and depending how it is enforced by regulators…

  36. Frances Irving – as you point out, if they were going to respect our privacy, the online giants would have no need to seek our consent. So surely the fact that they are sending us e-mails anyway belies the fact that they DO intend to continue doing dodgy stuff with our personal details?

  37. “GFA stipulates no additional border controls”

    Where does it say that?

  38. Pete B,

    My chess club is not doing what yours is re GDPR and one of our officers is a former fraud squad Chief Inspector who understands this stuff.

    Same with my work, we have written a policy and are conducting training so we understand our obligations but so far all we have had to do is introduce a generic email address or 2 as colleagues can no longer log in as an absent person.

    Some are saying it is a mini millennium bug – a nice little earner for consultants due to exaggerated requirements.

  39. Joseph1832,
    “The have ramped up their demands the more it has been clear that the UK will fold on everything. (Check the EU’s negotiating position if you doubt that.)”

    I fancy barnier and may have a good working arrangement and understand each others positions, and are working to assist each other in achieving their aims.

  40. Colin

    “thus giving impetus to the death of printed newspapers & the trend to “news” from Social Media………..where regulated un partisan news and challenging objective analysis is ubiquitous !”

    At least on Social Media ordinary people can have their say – and yes, that goes for people of all political persuasions, as you can see on this Forum. Whereas the press is controlled by just a few wealthy individuals pushing their own agenda.

    Which seems the more democratic to you?

  41. NORBOLD

    I’m not sure “Democracy” is the relevant requirement for me in connection with sources of News.

    In any event I think that the “democracy” you imply of “ordinary people ” having their say Social Media is , in many cases, a series of groups who exchange views with people of the same opinion. Groups which object to & attack ( or even exclude) comment from a different viewpoint.

    That is the very anithesis of “democracy” in my book. It is the online equivalent of the Street Mob-without the Police presence.

    Ownership of Newspapers has never been on my radar really. I don’t believe that all proprietors write the News comment in their publications. Indeed the better quality Papers feature a range of opinion & analysis. And if I want to read a particular viewpoint I have the choice.

    But I have to admit that a Corbyn Government wouldn’t need to follow Peter Cairn’s recipe for destruction of circulation. The younger reader seems more attracted to the convenience of news on the move in bite sized bits , from their phones . The irony for me-given Peter Cairns’ prescription- is my memory of Mr Cairns explaining in detail to me here on UKPR ,how News sources on Social media are chosen by algorithms written by the provider.

    …Providers like the “few wealthy individuals” who own the major Social Media platforms.

    :-) :-) :-)

  42. @Pete B – your chess club really shouldn’t have any problems with this at all, but please don’t think this is a waste of time.

    Imagine this scenario:

    One of your female club members was in an abusive relationship and has been stalked by her violent ex partner. She has taken necessary measures to relocate and avoid him. He knows she used to be a chess club member.

    He calls the club secretary and makes up a story about needing to contact her for some plausible sounding reason – maybe he was an ex club member – and asks for her phone number, address or similar.

    If you have met the very minor GDPR requirements, which most clubs will naturally do anyway, then there is no problem. If your club hasn’t addressed the issues and your secretary isn’t aware how to handle such a call, then you might end helping to kill someone.

    It’s a somewhat dramatic example, but these things do happen, and your club really does have a duty of care.

  43. @EOTW
    “GFA stipulates no additional border controls
    Brexit talked specifically about taking control of our borders.”

    I say this every time someone posts this simplistic comment. I have yet to have an answer.

    Where?

    It is certainly the case that some of the things the UK government is proposing would make some of its strand 3 obligations more complicated to honour but you’d be hard pushed to find an express “stipulation” that the proposals breach.

    By contrast other parties continue to refuse to implement the whole of strand 1, and they have now for about 18 months. They are in clear breach of express terms in doing so.

    (eg, “The First Minister and Deputy First Minister shall be jointly elected into office …”; not “if we feel like it”, “if it suits us politically”, or “if we like who the other lot propose”, but “shall”).

    Who is really wrecking the agreements? For how much longer can this state of affairs continue before it becomes more honest to say they are wrecked already?

  44. Barry Gardner on andrew Marr ( Marr in absentia) being quizzed whether in point of fact labours position amounts to not leaving the EU.

    Interviewer trying to pin him down that since their policy is to retain all the benefis of the SM and CU, plus political control of same, there is no way that can be achieved through a Brexit.

  45. Norbold, Colin – stop it, both of you.

    Norbold – the rise of niche online news sources, driven by a collapse in the cost of publishing in cyberspace and the ease with which social media allows people to find specific audiences, has already broken the gatekeepers’ media stranglehold. Any regulation that you applied to the Daily Mail would now apply equally to the Canary – are you sure you still want to go along with that?

    Colin – yes, people online, especially political partisans, separate into echo chambers. But I think the problem was worse in the print era. You wouldn’t get staunch left-wingers reading the Daily Mail or staunch right-wingers reading the Guardian. Now, people swim in a much more open marketplace of ideas where they are likely to bump into opposing viewpoints even without looking for them. Even if it’s not perfect, that’s more democratic than what came before.

  46. barbazenzero,
    “The leave tendency had 40 years to plan their approach but couldn’t be bothered to put in any work on it, as evidenced by the Chevening 3.”

    Not sure about that. Its pretty clear that going into detail about Brexit has weakened the case for it, so sensible of them not to do so.

    Profhoward,
    “Mays recent brexit policy, apparently agreed now in cabinet, is that whatever backstop happens in NI will happen in GB”

    Surely this was always implicit in last year’s agreement with the EU? Gardner was being quizzed whether labour’s policy amounts to refusing to leave the EU because his conditions cannot be met, but Mays already amounts to staying in the SM and CU by another name. She hasnt come round to the bit about ‘retaining politcial input to the rule making’ yet.

  47. garj,
    “None of that waffle changes the fact that you were bandying about ludicrous claims that the richest 1% have in excess of 27% of national income, whereas in reality it’s a third of that.”

    Lets try again then. They do not take their income in the form of a salary but as a capital gain. It is therefore taxed less than if it was salary. I have seen no figures where gains in net wealth from both salary and capital gain are collated and compared to their effective tax rates,

    So you are correct i dont know for sure what the answer is, but it is obviously a lot more then the salary income declared on the income tax return.

    wikipedia had some wealth figure, but they were quite a bit out of date. Government stats websites seem to talk about the value of people’s estates declared at death, but this isnt obviously relevant to averages during life.

    So where are the figures on net income both through pay and asset growth, and the effective tax rate – across the whole population?

  48. POLL TROLL

    @” You wouldn’t get staunch left-wingers reading the Daily Mail or staunch right-wingers reading the Guardian.”

    You make the mistake of assuming that everyone is as politically motivated as you.

    The world is not solely comprised of staunch left or right wingers echoing each other on their FaceBook Groups & Twitter hashtags.

    There is a great swathe of people in the middle who make their own minds up about politics every – five years when they are called upon to vote.

    And among their number are people who still like to turn the pages of a newspaper & read more than a handfull of words about what is happening in the World , written by informative & thoughtful journalists & commentators.

  49. @ Colin

    What are your examples of Corbyn’s “authoritarian streak”?

    Compared to the Blair or Thatcher years for example he seems rather liberal in the internal politics at least. More say for individual members for example- obviously at the moment this has worked to his favour but long term it may well not. We can also see this in the Lewisham East selection process where I would imagine Blair would have imposed the candidate of his choice.

    Re newspapers- for sure it is a difficult balance between freedom of the press and abuses by the press where Murdoch seems to actively encourage the impression that he is the one that chooses who the government will be. You perhaps have never felt the need for some safeguards because they largely chime with your views but can you honestly make a rational defence of some of the headlines from 2017? It’d also be interesting for someone to study why opinion polling shows the public to be exceptionally ignorant on so many issues- questions like percentage of muslims living in this country, average salaries etc that Anthony often highlights on this site. This comes from somewhere and newspapers seem one of the obvious sources.

    At the moment I don’t think we have the safeguards for newspapers to not distort the truth and while some ultra rich celebrities may be able to get libel damages and others may manage an apology with way less prominence than the original headline it is a long way from balancing the original damage. As you say social media is in danger of becoming even less accurate and more widely shared but two wrongs don’t make a right.

  50. Shevi

    Replied -but the site upload failed.

    Off out now-will respond later.

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