YouGov’s weekly poll for the Times has topline figures of CON 43%(+1), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 9%(+2). Fieldwork was Tuesday to Wednesday and changes are from last week. While the changes themselves are insignificant, margin-of-error stuff, it’s worth noting that this is the fourth YouGov poll in a row with a Conservative lead of 4 or 5 points, so it looks as if, beneath the noise, the Tories may have genuinely opened up a small lead over Labour.

The same movement is apparent in the best Prime Minister rating. Following the general election Jeremy Corbyn had cut Theresa May’s lead on the measure down to single figures, but it has gradually inched back up again, and in the last couple of months Theresa May seems to have had a steady double-digit lead.

Full tabs for the latest figures are here.


558 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 43%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%”

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  1. First – again!

    Can I be the new New Thread Monitor?

  2. Have we passed peak Corbyn? certainly looks like it, probably a few weeks ago. If this is the best we can do against the Tory shambles then “oh dear” is all I can say. I look forward to more erudite views.

  3. Despite all the controversies surrounding the government at the moment, the Tory vote share has been rock solid ~43% since the GE.

    If they maintain those numbers and replicate them at a general election, then surely we’re only talking about the size of the next Tory majority, regardless of who is Labour leader?

  4. @ FROSTY – LDEM seats (from last thread).

    I agree they have limited upside in seats but the 2022 target list is based on 2017 results and uses UNS – major limitations on its use as a predictor. However, it is a useful start point and within it you can pick out several “demographic” or “geographic” groups:

    – young/uni towns (will new students forgive them for Clegg’s past sins, will students feel let down by LAB Brexit policy, will Corbynmania end?) EG Sheffield Hallam, Leeds NW, Cambridge, etc.
    – South (could they win the Remain, ABC or protest tactical vote away from LAB), EG Lewes and the S.West of England

    In an early GE, due to Brexit, then it will be very difficult to predict what will happen with the Remain, ABC and ABL vote. If we get a 2022 GE then that will be long after Brexit and today’s polls could be vastly different. Brexit success = LDEM die with UKIP. Brexit disaster = LDEM resurgence with rejoin via A49

    Whether it is snap or 2022 GE the Brexit “elephant” will be a factor for every party although unlike CON or LAB, the LDEM seats impact will probably be due to the mistakes (or not) of the big two. Realistically, “kingmaker”, is the best they can aim for but that is very possible. (e.g. Positioning themselves ahead of SNP as LAB’s C+S first choice in min.govt would appeal to a lot of “Blairite” types)

  5. P.S. Add in London as a LDEM “niche”. I consider London as a different “country” in my model so forgot to mention it.
    EG Bermondsey (safe LDEM seat “way back” in 2010!)

  6. ABEEKEEPER1 ADANIEL

    I think you’re overlooking several important factors.

    In a GE campaign, Corbyn and Labour will have to be given a fair hearing in the MSM such as the BBC, which doesn’t happen at present.

    Corbyn is a natural campaigner. The more people see him, the more they like him. Look at how Labour’s vote share increased in the last GE campaign.

    Labour has hundreds of thousands of enthusiastic supporters to canvas and get the vote out. Look at what they achieved in Wandsworth in the local elections last week. in 2014, Labour got approx half the vote share that the Tories did. In 2018, they got more votes than the Tories did – 122K vs 121K,, and with only 141 more votes in 4 marginal seats they would have taken the Council.

    (Rant on media bias – so why weren’t the headlines “Tories hang on in Wandsworth despite losing popular vote” rather than “Labour fails to take Wandsworth”? Both equally valid.)

    IMO any talk of peak Corbyn or peak Labour is wide of the mark.

  7. @ARTEMIS
    i door knocked for the local elections and then the GE last year, they overlapped. I did not detect a surge to Corbyn, what I saw were a lot of labour voters who said they would not vote Labour again while Corbyn was leader, and then did not vote in the County Election, giving Lab a v. poor result, but who did vote Labour in the GE when being told day in day out that May was heading for a landslide.
    This was not a pro Corbyn surge, this was an “OH God if I must” vote. We are mid term, Corbyn has had a lot of exposure, he can not cut it. As a long time Labour member, I describe myself as a Gaitskellite, I find it rather sad.

  8. @Artemis
    ” why weren’t the headlines “Tories hang on in Wandsworth despite losing popular vote” rather than “Labour fails to take Wandsworth”? Both equally valid”
    Simply because of the hype from the Left that labour would take Wandsworth.
    ‘Labour fails to take Wandsworth’ is the obvious response to ‘Labour will take Wandsworth.

    ” Corbyn is a natural campaigner.” but he will have to work pretty hard if “a fair hearing in the MSM such as the BBC” means that his front bench shadow cabinet is exposed to some realistic questioning.
    A GE is the election of a party to form a government. That means capable ministers, not just a persuasive leader.

  9. I meant @BEEKEEPER1 @DANIEL of course – apologies

    And @TREVOR WARNE

    I also consider London a different country and one I’m very much looking forward to returning to in 2022!

  10. From my understanding, Labour got half the seats that the conservatives got in wandsworth last time rather than half the votes?

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/992815176431874048

    Lab 38.7 (+6.4)
    Con 38.3 (-1.5)
    Ldem 8.5 (+0.8)
    Green 7.9 (-4.7)

    Certainly true that i thought that the Conservatives celebrating not losing a council was a bit OTT when they have had it for decades, it has very low council tax and survived the Blair landslides when all three MPs were labour. You mention the Labour ground operation but, given that, i think the relatively modest swing will have been a relief to the conservatives. I think they will have been worried that labour’s big advantage in numbers could equal a big swing in targetted constituencies and that this might have given labour a, say, 20-30 seat advantage at a coming general election. The effect actually seems to be smaller than this. Living in Battersea in a ward where Labour came a close second i can definitely testify that the use of the word swamping to describe the labour approach in areas of battersea was correct – there seemed to be labour people everywhere.

  11. @Beekeeper1, i have heard a similar thing – that the local councils indicating a big landslide for the tories got quite a lot of wavering labour voters to come out and vote. They weren’t happy about voting for corbyn but the prospect of a big tory win was something they were less happy about, and the council results served to focus minds.

  12. Taken from a post by Trevor Warne on 10/5/17
    I’m aware that as CON get near/above 50% we might seem some complacency/sympathy vote issues but I think this will be counteracted on the day via a generally low turnout for all parties but having a greater impact on LAB and LDEM (over and above the existing Labour bias tweaks that most polling companies now do). My guess is a lot of CON voters (loyal voters and new recruits will want to get out and vote, LAB and LDEM less so).

    ———————————————

    I thought I would vary the mix by occasionally visiting the archives and picking out posts or fragments of posts from a year ago.

  13. @VALERIE
    ‘Taken from a post by Trevor Warne on 10/5/17
    I’m aware that as CON get near/above 50% we might seem some complacency/sympathy vote issues but I think this will be counteracted on the day via a generally low turnout for all parties but having a greater impact on LAB and LDEM (over and above the existing Labour bias tweaks that most polling companies now do). My guess is a lot of CON voters (loyal voters and new recruits will want to get out and vote, LAB and LDEM less so).
    ———————————————
    I thought I would vary the mix by occasionally visiting the archives and picking out posts or fragments of posts from a year ago.’

    I wonder if his current predictions will be as ‘accurate’ as this one was?

    Although to be fair to him a few weeks out from the election the Conservatives seemed to have it won, I certainly thought so. What does surprise me is that some have not learned the lesson from this and are trying to predict what will happen 4 years out from an election when most cannot even get it right 4 weeks out.

    We are in very turbulent times and if I was to make a prediction it would one that no one will know the result of the election until the exit poll at the earliest

  14. Daniel:
    “Despite all the controversies surrounding the government at the moment, the Tory vote share has been rock solid ~43% since the GE.”

    In fact, if you look at recent polls, they are averaging 41%, with a range from 39 -43% although some of the most recent polls have been towards the top of that range.

  15. @Neil J

    What does surprise me is that some have not learned the lesson from this and are trying to predict what will happen 4 years out from an election when most cannot even get it right 4 weeks out.

    ————————————–
    Absolutely. I was predicting an increased Tory majority as well. Nobody knows what is going to happen. That’s what makes it interesting. :-)

  16. I tend to update my view with events and try to anticipate what MIGHT happen. On 18 May 17 the Tories launched their manifesto, turned their back on the JAMs (not what May was supposed to do) and kept austerity (foolishly missing the chance to leave that baggage with DC+GO).
    IMHO and with the benefit of hindsight the manifesto disaster, combined with May’s “no-show” during the campaign, let Corbyn win the “domestic” issues and benefit from ambiguity on Brexit as it was supposedly “settled”.

    A week (or 8days) is a long time in politics.

    So what’s LAB’s plan for here? More foot soldiers next time? Backfired in the LEs but please go ahead and get those Momentum folks out banging on more doors in the next GE ;)

  17. VALERIE
    @Neil J

    Absolutely. I was predicting an increased Tory majority as well. Nobody knows what is going to happen. That’s what makes it interesting. :-)

    Agree, I thought the same

  18. @NeilJ

    “I wonder if his current predictions will be as ‘accurate’ as this one was?

    Although to be fair to him a few weeks out from the election the Conservatives seemed to have it won, I certainly thought so. What does surprise me is that some have not learned the lesson from this and are trying to predict what will happen 4 years out from an election when most cannot even get it right 4 weeks out.”

    Wise, wise words. I’d go further and suggest that beyond the media narrative that they sometimes initiate/perpetuate, these VI opinion polls are barely worth the paper they’re not printed on, certainly in terms of predicting election outcomes.

    In their defence, they don’t claim to be predictors, just snapshots in time, but are they really any good at doing that these days when you see the disparity in this latest YouGov poll with the recent BBC 36 v 36 projected vote share that came out of last week’s local elections?

    Lord Cooper, the ex Tory moderniser and owner of Populus, is worth reading on the subject. In a nutshell, he’s basically done a Ratner on opinion polls in general, certainly those being conducted post the 2017 GE.

  19. LDEM’s best chance to increase seats is of course via defections ;)

    Not a prediction, just speculation ;)

    Timing? Well for now the likes of Umunna can probably achieve more as a LAB back-bencher than switching to LDEM but if Corbyn doesn’t “evolve policy” to include EEA when Brexit matters come back to HoC then that might be the timing?

    Will “People’s vote” MPs break from the two main parties?

    P.S. Please take Soubs, she is basically LDEM now anyway.

  20. @ TW

    Ummuna would be pulverised in Streatham if he stood as a Lib Dems.

    They won’t defect, just carry on sniping hoping they get the chance to replace Corbyn with a ne0-lib3eral.

  21. @ Crossbat

    The 36:36 BBC locals is indeed a puzzle compared to recent polling.

    I thought there was a general rule of thumb that Tories always vote (and of course with the postal vote demographic apparently in the Tories’ favour nationwide then it should be even more so). There were some shocking turnouts in the locals as well.

    If that is true then you would assume the Tories would do less well when more people vote in a general election?

    Also a general rule of thumb that Lib Dems do better in locals than nationals which of course may not mean Labour benefits more than Tories come a general election.

    I assume the BBC went beyond the overall swing on the day and are looking at regions and different voting patterns so Wandsworth for example doesn’t get included in calculating the Mansfield swing and vice versa?

    But as you say a lot is going to change in the next 12 months let alone the next 4 years were it to go that long. This is not a normal parliament.

  22. To paraphrase the man’s stance on the Customs Union – we have passed A peak Corbyn, but we may not have passed THE peak Corbyn.

  23. I should add that CON 2017 manifesto included the “triple punch to pensioners” (what I had hoped for but only if it was offset by appealing to other voter demographics and May had made the effort to finesse the policies and actually show up to debate/explain them!).

    Aging population (and the cost that goes with it), is IMHO the UK’s 3rd serious problem (current account deficit and low productivity being the other two).

    Obviously no party is going to mess with the “Boomer” vote now. “da yoof” can thank Farron and McDonnell for ensuring the Boomer’s keep their triple locked pensions and no means testing for Winter fuel cash. Inheritees of homeowner postcode lottery winnings (London and S.East) will also be happy that the third punch (Robin Hood tax) was dropped.

    P.S. I’m too young to be a “gammon” but the “gammon” folks I know would quietly admit the GE outcome was perfect for them and have certainly raised a glass or two to Farron and McDonnell for keeping them in the lifestyle to which they (and their children) have become accustomed! Almost reminds me of a certain Momentum video :0

  24. As in, the Tories are doing a bit better than they were six months ago, but I’d still put Labour as slight favourites for the next election.

  25. Another thing to throw into the mix with the lib dems is that there has been speculation that Cable will stand aside at some point to allow someone else to take over – i think Jo Swinson has been mentioned.

  26. @ JONESINBANGOR – Its too late to replace Corbyn with a ne0-liberal. The far-left control the NEC and membership. McCluskey avoiding a new ballot was that nail in that coffin (3quid membership the first nail!)

    Umunna might not be the most obvious pick but for many LAB-Remain MPs do they stay with the “handmaiden of Brexit” fearing to speak out in case they are deselected in next GE or enjoy 5minutes of fame and a chance of staying an MP by defecting to the LDEMs?

    I don’t know LAB MPs names and allegiances in detail but anyone who matches the following criteria should be very open to the charms of Sir Vince:
    a/ Blairite
    b/ Strong Remain seat
    c/ Strong Remain views
    d/ a seat was LDEM in 2010 (or at least had them as a decent 2nd place)

    If I could be bothered I’d get the 2010 data and run b+d but clearly this analysis would be easier for LDEM HQ to run.

    Also Khan as the UK Macron? LDEM reverse in to new party (or do a pact with them)?

    I can guess if you run the analysis you won’t get much beyond London, some uni seats and the S.West but if the job is “kingmaker” (or “party pooper”) then I would have thought Remain MPs would be more ambitious than just m0aning about Brexit. I guess I should be glad they are not very imaginative ;)

  27. Frosty – I suspect Vince Cable will go if someone else says they really want the job. But so far nobody does.

    Jo Swinson didn’t want it a year ago. She still has young kids. She might feel ready for a tilt at the leadership after the next GE but at the moment I kind of get the feeling that she feels being a mother is more important to her.

  28. OLDNAT, JONESINBANGOR & GARJ

    Apologies for not responding sooner, but busy with family issues for the last couple of days. Have put my penn’orth at the end of the previous thread.

  29. So Con pretty much where they were in June 2017 with Lab down a bit and Lib Dem up a bit.
    Considering the incompetence of her Maj’s Govt any kind of lead is extraordinary.

  30. MP

    “Considering the incompetence of her Maj’s Govt any kind of lead is extraordinary “.

    What is extraordinary is the complete lack of impact Corbyn and his motley crew is having on the electorate.
    Apart from failing to win in 2017 by 55 seats he has also failed to make any real impact in the local elections ,nothing succeeds as success that’s why Labour are beginning to fall behind in the polls dispite what momentum may think the U.K. is not about to embrace Corbyn’s form of socialism.

  31. beekeeper1,
    “This was not a pro Corbyn surge, this was an “OH God if I must” vote”

    i dont agree, but if i did agree it would have to be accepted as a much bigger reluctant turnout than the previous couple of leaders achieved. Nor is there anyone exactly shining who might do better. A number of people who the blairites might like could well push the labour vote back down to where it was before Corbyn.

    Mike pearce,
    “Considering the incompetence of her Maj’s Govt any kind of lead is extraordinary.”

    Not really. For the same reason Corbyn is invulnerable so long as he keeps delivering remain, so is May if she keeps delivering leave.

    These two responses might feel a bit contradictory, but i dont think they are. There are two factors to labour success at the moment. One is corbyn himself and a revitalised left wing party. The other is the brexit divide, which has pushed remain supporters to labour, leave to tory.

    What will be relevant at the next election will depend on where we are with Brexit. The two most likely choices seem to be tories running a full term, or a collapse of their government before brexit happens.

  32. On Corby n and election campaign.

    I linked the FT article, but unfortunately didn’t have the time to give excerpts.

    So, here are some:

    “BritainThinks also carried out a survey this month of more than 2,000 eligible voters as part of its research, which showed that just two in five people could name Mr Hammond as the current chancellor.

    But the majority surveyed supported Mr Corbyn’s manifesto pledges, including plans to increase taxes, strengthen workers’ rights, crack down on executive pay and nationalise utilities.”

    “n the focus group in Southampton, the men were also keen on a cap on the difference between the pay of executives and their employees, and the nationalisation of the water, energy and rail industries.

    But when asked whether the policies belonged to the Conservative or Labour party, three quickly replied in succession: “Conservative”.

    When the men were told that the policies belonged to Mr Corbyn’s Labour party, not Theresa May’s Conservatives, they went cold, with one calling them “rubbish”.

    “Their sums don’t add up,” said another participant, adding: “Although we haven’t seen the sums. We’re assuming they’re not going to add up.”

    Another said the ideas could not be delivered “without ruining the country”.”

    [These were self employed and white collar men]

    [The next group is professional women]
    “The group agreed that Labour offered “change” and was “more in touch” with ordinary people when it came to issues like education and healthcare.

    But some of the women said Mr Corbyn was “not a safe pair of hands” and one called him a “try-hard” for attending last year’s Glastonbury Festival.

    And when told about Mr Corbyn’s business policies, they were also sceptical, saying higher corporation tax for larger companies seemed unfair — “they are being penalised for doing well”.”

    “All of the women questioned Labour’s nationalisation proposals — but few grasped what the policies would entail.

    “It is going private, isn’t it? We don’t want that,” said one, while another asked if the programme would be funded by private investors.

    Even after they were told that nationalisation meant utilities would no longer remain in private hands, they were uncertain.

    “It sounds like a massive financial cost,” said one.

    In general, both the men and women in Southampton saw the Conservatives as untrustworthy, out of touch and elitist.

    But while they believed Labour was more “caring” and offering “change”, the swing voters said the party was populist, pandering to the biggest audience and saying anything to get elected.

    That was also the case in Barnet, where BritainThinks interviewed an older group of women who saw Labour as strong on the NHS, housing and education but weak on Brexit, business and the economy.”

    So, there is no trust in Corbyn, and people are seeing the continuity irrespective of governments and just want to get on in the continuity. They don’t seem to perceive Corby n particularly different, just a more desperate monger in the market.

    Brexit of course could change the continuity..

  33. “Have we passed peak Corbyn? certainly looks like it, probably a few weeks ago. ”

    Not in the conventional sense of only downhill from here but I remain of the opinion that we bumped against that ceiling during the election. Note that the Tories haven’t really gained, just Labour/Corbyn has receded a little. Mostly to dk I think.

    Come another election, the threat of a Tory government plus fptp will force dks back to corbyn but I think he will struggle to get any more as he is toxic to certain demographics much as the Tories are to others.

    We have two unpopular party leaders, not much in the way of contenders in the wings of either and a system that makes it really hard for any alternative to get a fair chance.

    Obviously whatever becomes of brexit could change things in any direction but I can’t see any pre brexit election delivering a particularly different outcome.

  34. Been a bit busy to check properly but haven’t seen this posted….

    British people becoming more sympathetic towards refugees and immigrants, survey suggests

    ‘Government policy must change to build on the kernel of positive findings here’

    May Bulman Social Affairs Correspondent @maybulman Thursday 10 May 2018 16:08 BST

  35. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/uk-refugees-immigration-sympathy-kind-survey-brexit-a8344841.html

    “British people are becoming more sympathetic towards refugees and migrants, according to a new study.

    A survey of 1,053 Britons reveals an increase in those who feel the government should do more to help refugees fleeing war and persecution and enable more legal immigrants to become British citizens.

    The annual Aurora Humanitarian Index public opinion study shows that more than half (52 per cent) of the UK population feels that refugees deserve more support, and 38 per cent are regretful that the country is not doing enough to help, up 11 points from last year.

    It also shows that nearly half (47 per cent) of British people think that legally established immigrants should be able to become UK citizens, up 10 points from 2017.

    Experts said the findings show the government’s “hostile” policies on immigration do not reflect public opinion, and urged ministers to ensure the positive attitudes are translated into legislation.”

  36. “Despite the sympathy towards refugees and immigrants, the survey shows that the majority (65 per cent) of people in the UK claim there are too many humanitarian crises to keep up with today, and are still largely misinformed on the reality of the refugee crisis.

    Ninety-six per cent of people in the UK don’t know or underestimate the fact that the vast majority of displaced people are hosted by developing countries rather than the West, and are most likely to think that Germany, the UK and Italy have accepted the highest number of refugees over the last decade.

    The reality, according to the UNHCR, is that the UK was hosting 118,000 refugees at the end of 2016 compared to 2,869,421 for Turkey.

    Misperceptions also remain when it comes to understanding who refugees are. Most people in the UK think only 32 per cent of refugees are under the age of 18, yet in reality 52 per cent of the total global refugee population are children.

    A striking finding this year showed that only a little over one third (38 per cent) view the protection of children, and one-quarter (25 per cent) view the protection of women, as pressing humanitarian issues.

    The survey also reveals that almost half of British people (49 per cent) regard risk of war as the most pressing global humanitarian challenge facing humanity at present, compared to just 33 per cent in 2017. At 64 per cent, terrorism remains the most pressing humanitarian issue for Britons.”

  37. It’s so weird, I am well to the right of centre on the “what do think of Corbyn’s (infamously popular) pledges” issues:

    – I’d like to see more tax on the rich, but I’d also like to see acceptance that many people on, say, £40k, could pay a little bit more too, rather than the magical thinking which excepts the 1% to pay for everything.

    – Nationalisations I take on a case-by-case basis. Nationalising water makes sense to me, nationalising post doesn’t so much.

    – I’m extremely sceptical of universalism, which has always seemed to me a case of throwing money at people who don’t need it, to the detriment of those who do. This was where I was most critical of the Labour manifesto (though I did concede the measures in it would probably be very popular).

    – I’m also no fan of enforced pay ratios. It would just incentivise companies to find ways to automate their lowest-paying jobs, so the fat cats could pay themselves more.

    In spite of all this, I’m still, as it stands, a (very reluctant) Labour voter. Which brings me to this – if I’m not voting for the Tories, which 43% of the country is? There’s definitely not 43% of the country to my political right!

  38. “Have we passed peak Corbyn”

    Well, unless things screw up for the government pretty majorly in a way that lingers – e.g. Devaluations, Winter of Discontent, Black Wednesday, Banking Crunch – it’s difficult for an opposition to make headway after a GE, since giving new policies away before the next election is a bit unwise. Policies may be nicked or trashed.

    (This is before you get to the media finding it easier to trash those with policies they dislike outside of an election).

  39. polling post!
    I just picked a random yougov from 10 jan 2017 to compare to the most recent one. Picked it to be before the election got going. I notice the next thread below it in AW’s header writeups talks about Corbyn’s poor performance. Funny how history repeats.

    The percentages for the parties before eliminating WNV etc,
    con 26% lab 19, lib 7%, UKIP 9%, DK 19% WNV 13%

    now,
    con 30%, lab 28%, lib 7%, UKIP 1%, DK 16% WNV 12%

    So over a little more than a year, but trying to avoid the hiatus of the election,
    2017 leave =con+UKIP=35%. Remain=Lab+lib=26%
    2018 leave=31%. Remain=35%

    This probably underestimates the remain vote, because I have left out greens, SNP who are another 5% remainish in both years.

    Over the time, leave has lost 4% while remain has gained 9% and a notional modest lead for leave became a fairly strong lead for remain.

    These calculations show why some might have felt an election would produce a win for a hard Brexit platform, but in fact voters on consideration roundly rejected it.

    The DK and WNV totals ar not so very different betwen the two years, but at face value these figures say con only gained half the UKIP vote, but labour gained the rest plus a similar number of undecideds.

    Thinking more about political realities, it might be more likely that while tories gained more of UKIP, they also lost some remainish tories. But it is also true that UKIP attracted support from labour and they may have returned home. Either because they are disillusioned with brexit, or because they regard it as less important than other labour key issues.

    Well, the UKIP reservoir of leave supporters is now gone. We are left with a pool of dont knows. Presumably therefore open to persuasion. if this trend could be continued, one might predict a very strong showing for remain at a new election this year.

  40. I love Merkel’s use of the words “different cultures” in this report. Loaded with meaning :-)

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-macron-charlemagne/drop-budget-surplus-fetish-macron-tells-berlin-as-gets-german-eu-prize-idUSKBN1IB1FF

  41. @polltroll

    “I’d like to see more tax on the rich, but I’d also like to see acceptance that many people on, say, £40k.”

    ———

    .???

    People on a bit over £46k DO pay more, they’re in the forty percent band.

    And many of them aren’t that well off because rent and property, rail fares etc. etc. so expensive now.

    If you want more therefore, tax some of the property windfalls.

  42. @Polltroll

    “I’m extremely sceptical of universalism, which has always seemed to me a case of throwing money at people who don’t need it, to the detriment of those who do. This was where I was most critical of the Labour manifesto (though I did concede the measures in it would probably be very popular).“

    ——-

    People have thought of that! You claw it back from the better off via tax. It’s more efficient and gets more acceptance.

  43. “it’s difficult for an opposition to make headway after a GE, since giving new policies away before the next election is a bit unwise. Policies may be nicked or trashed.”

    I disagree. Labour as been dropping small proposals at regular intervals since the GE (most recently we had free buses for the under-25s), and it seems to be working well for them. It helps make them look like a government in waiting (which, I must confess, is something they do need help with).

    Conversely, of course, an untested policy can fall flat on its face in a GE. Did somebody mention the dementia tax? What dementia tax? Nothing has changed!

  44. @Polltroll

    They can drop in a few, the ones they think the government are unlikely to feel able to nick.

    And occasionally some to force the government’s hand, e.g. Osborne catching Brown out with the inheritance tax move.

    But they’ll be keeping their powder dry on the rest.

  45. Carfrew: seriously, I wasn’t expecting you to agree with what I said! My point was, if I have all these opinions and still won’t vote Tory, the Tories are doing something seriously wrong.

  46. Interesting :-

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/994588503093768193

    Perhaps Nick Timothy will ring TM to tell her how pleased he his :-)

  47. (That said I do agree with you about taxes on property. If there is one hipster policy I have a weakness for it’s a good Land Value Tax.)

  48. @Polltroll

    Even when they drop in a few, it might work short term, but the government may still move to counter at some point.

    Taken a while but Tories are starting to address energy pricing.

    But the opposition ha e to throw a few things in to keep,their supporters happy in the interim.

  49. @Polltroll

    “Carfrew: seriously, I wasn’t expecting you to agree with what I said! My point was, if I have all these opinions and still won’t vote Tory, the Tories are doing something seriously wrong.”

    ———

    They keep getting elected though.

    I know this might come as a surprise but you don’t win elections just by convincing polltroll.

  50. (I just want to add that it’s possible the tax arrangements are a bit different in Scotland etc., just in case this is of any concern).

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