There have been three more voting intention polls out today (or more, if you count BMG publishing their back catalogue). The regular YouGov poll for the Times had topline figures of CON 42%(-1), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 7%(-1). This was conducted on Monday and Tuesday, so is the first poll we’ve seen conducted since Amber Rudd’s resignation – not that it has had any obvious impact. Asked specifically about that 51% of people thought she was right to resign, 19% think she should have remained in the job.

Asked about immigration policy, the Windrush scandal does not appear to have led to any wider perceptions that immigration policies are too harsh – 21% of people said they thought the government’s immigration policy was too strict, 15% that it was about right, 44% that it was not strict enough. Full tabs are here.

Secondly, BMG released a new poll with topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%. Fieldwork was in mid-April, so before the Windrush scandal really below up. While this is the first published BMG poll we’ve seen for months, they have apparently been conducting them, and have published the backdata for the last four months at the same time. All of that is on their website here, along with the tables.

Finally Survation published a poll containing voting intention for the London local elections overnight. It recorded very similar vote shares to those in the YouGov/Queen Mary University poll a week ago, with CON 31%, LAB 51%, LDEM 12%, Others 6%. Full tables are here.


1,041 Responses to “Latest YouGov and BMG polls, plus Survation London local polling”

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  1. TREVOR WARNE

    Thanks I don’t see any of the legal, economic or political arguments clearly at all.

    ROGER MEXICO

    @”It’s the unreliability and the arbitrariness that is unsettling them”

    Thats your opinion. I have a different view of their stance on Galileo.

  2. Jon Worth gets stuck into the Conservatives

    https://jonworth.eu/brexit-uk-government-not-even-trying/

    “There are solutions of sorts: either the border is to be hardened, or moved to the Irish Sea, or the UK Government’s Brexit position has to be softened. But none of those options is palatable to the UK Government, because every one of them leaves some group feeling angry (essentially: everyone in Ireland if the former, the DUP and their supporters if the second, and May’s hard core Brexiters if the third). So no decision is made. No planning is done. And the clock ticks down further towards 29th March 2019 when Article 50 expires.

    All you get is one huge collective whinge from the British politico-journalist class instead, smug enough that they’re still cleverer than johnny foreigner and the European Commission.

    It is not just on Ireland that signs of a determination to not make progress can be seen. The FT reports that Barnier is frustrated that he has seen little of Davis. A vote in the House of Commons on the Customs Union has been delayed until April, and the Repeal Bill has not passed the Lords yet. Earlier this month the UK Government gave up even trying to replicate 759 trade agreements, instead just hoping to be treated like the EU by the rest of the world a while longer instead.”

  3. TREVOR W

    Trevor, In your reply to me I recognised my name but nothing more. The fault surely is mine.

  4. JIM JAM

    It was Ian Dunt wot said 87% – I was quoting his post. However, I did a google. It is on Labour List

    https://labourlist.org/2018/01/labour-members-poll-over-75-per-cent-of-want-vote-on-brexit-deal-and-to-stay-in-single-market-and-customs-union/

  5. GARJ

    Given the decision by UK government to leave the Single Market and Customs Union there never was a prospect of a beneficial deal while that decision holds.Once you leave, the advantages of membership also leave. Why should the EU change systems and rules that have taken many years to evolve in order to deal with a country that wishes to be outside those systems and rules?

  6. Jim Jam
    “Labour wants Membership of or Access to the Single Market”

    Typical weasel words!
    Corbyn wants “access” but only on terms he will not get. Of course he will get the same “access” as China no problem, with tarriff. Tarriff free access comes with anti-monopoly rules which make life very difficult for him, and also with freedom of movement of you want tarriff free access in areas favourable to the UK..

    Corbyn does not want membership (ie. EEA) which is why he stops his MPs voting for it. And he keeps saying so. Do you not trust him??

  7. Sam,
    I think Jim Jam will want to “correct” you on that Labour List article, which is clearly fake news…

  8. Tom Watson’s amendment for section 40, which would have enabled the super-rich to bury their media opponents under legal fees, has not even been put to a vote – as the SNP announced at the last minute they were withdrawing their support, and Labour realised the numbers were well short.

    Oh, it’s a good day for press freedom.

  9. Another Leveson inquiry would have been nice, but the defeat of the Section 40 amendment was the big one.

  10. On the contrary Andrew, I will thank Sam for that link which is indeed instructive.

    That poll does not say that the LP membership are calling for that to be policy now however and as I stated above I am sure the most recent poll of Labour voters and members supports the current policy.

    Also, I never accused you are anyone of fake news, I just disagreed with your extrapolation.

  11. @ SAM – my apologies, I went off on a rant over your economists comment and have reread your reply. Agree with:
    “Post transition the UK can properly exit on WTO terms assuming no deal can be made.”

    Your 4:24pm. Leavers in Jun’16 clearly didn’t believe our current deal with EU had sufficient “advantages of membership” to make them want to Remain. CU = jobs move to cheaper/protected countries. SM = wages undercut in UK by workers from those cheaper labour countries (I’m aware of the studies that show FoM hasn’t done that but it is about perception in the mind of the voter, my 2c is that it might have held back investment in higher productivity but it is impossible to “prove”).

    @ COLIN – for sure nothing is 100% certain. The “city” in general seems very complacent about transition being “in the bag” and they pay a lot of money for legal advice!

  12. Happy European Day to everyone. :-)

  13. @ JIM JAM – when are LAB-Remain members (and/or MPs) going to call for a change in policy? 1 April 2019 (make sure its before 12noon to count as April Fool!)

    The unwritten policy of ambiguity and making life as difficult as possible for May is “fun” while it lasts I’m sure but in

    324days 6h 32m 5s
    the UK will have officially have left the EU
    https://www.labourleave.org.uk

  14. @ TW

    “The “city” in general seems very complacent about transition being “in the bag” and they pay a lot of money for legal advice!”

    Pratchett, as always, has the answer

    “It was amazing how willing people were to see life in the corpse of a friend.”[1]

    I subscribe to the philosophy that Simon and Garfunkel espoused “a man hears what he wants to hear and disregards the rest”[2]

    [1] Nightwatch
    [2] The Boxer

  15. JIM JAM

    “The poll research shows members clearly in favour of remaining in the single market. Jeremy Corbyn rejects that position. There is no ambiguity about his position as reported.

    On Brexit, the survey revealed that their views are fiercely pro-EU, including that:

    49% of members think there should “definitely” be a vote on the final Brexit deal, with a further 29.4% answering “more yes than no” to the question, and only 8.8% definitely opposing it.
    Two-thirds of members (66%) think Britain should definitely stay in the single market with a further fifth (20.7%) saying “more yes than no” to the question. Only 4.2% of Labour members said they definitely believed Britain should leave the grouping.
    There were similar levels of support on the customs union with 63.1% saying Britain should definitely stay within the group, 22.2% leaning towards the same position, and only 2.4% saying the UK should definitely leave it.
    Corbyn and his shadow Brexit secretary, Keir Starmer, have argued that the UK has to leave the single market to fulfil the Brexit vote, but that the party will fight to retain the benefits of the free trade area.”

  16. SAM

    I don’t think the EU should change systems and rules, I think we ought to get a Canada-style trade deal, and then take a look at what areas we can cooperate in. The EU has arranged all sorts of access to various programs for countries that aren’t members. Erasmus, for example, counts some 37 participating nations, a couple more than 27 I think. Europol has dozens of non-EU liason officers from places as far flung as Australia and Columbia. Canada is an associate member of the European Space Agency and contributes to its budget. The EU is currently organising matters so that the USA (certainly not an EU state) can have full access to the Galileo program, including the encrypted section. It’s an untrue but oft-repeated mantra that EU rules make it ‘impossible’ for the UK to retain any involvement in many of these programs after Brexit. In actual fact it is entirely possible and there are strong precedents for other nations doing the same. The only obstacle is a political desire to make Brexit as harmful as possible.

  17. @ WB – typically if you ask 2 lawyers you get 4 opinions ;)

    Part of the complacency is also probably linked to “city” companies having done their due diligence and already set in place their crash-out, no deal contingency.

    Given the money involved and their jobs/reputation as lawyers being on the line if they leave their company/client in a Brexit legal limbo I’d be very surprised if it’s a case of selective hearing and only hearing what they want to hear.

    A Pratchett quote for Rejoiners:

    “Why do you go away? So that you can come back. So that you can see the place you came from with new eyes and extra colors. And the people there see you differently, too. Coming back to where you started is not the same as never leaving.” A Hat Full of Sky

  18. Garj

    and the money… we need to save as much as we can to make it up to that 350m a week.

    and things like signing up to Horizon 2020 (and successors) which require freedom of movement for researchers who are seemingly undesirable at the present.

    I agree most of it is political (and will involve us replicating a lot of work which will also cost more plus the additional difficulty of getting enough staff)

    If stuff like this was dealt with clearly and up front, I might not be so committed to my plans to jettison the UK. I can’t “wait and see”, as things stand. To even have to right to “move on” in the future with any degree of security, it seems I will need to renounce my British citizenship as David Davis “didn’t realise it was important”.

  19. GARJ

    Your views are well in advance of those held by the UK government which has yet to decide what, if any, kind of trade deal it actually wants. The UK policy is to delay forming a policy. on what it wants. This policy leads to leaving the EU without a deal.

    You could be wrong about the EU intending to be harmful to the UK. The EU may simply be telling the UK where negotiating power lies in this exercise. The UK government seems to have less interest in Brexit than being engaged in
    internal divisions in government and the party.

  20. I’m not envious of the Labour Party’s position. According to polls, it is Remain, but it is also in support of its leader who never hesitates to make racist remarks about people born East of the River Elbe (as for him that’s OK, as they are Europeans), and got in some time warp that Mussolini’s economic policies are fine, even if they contradict the EU rules (would be odd, wouldn’t it, to rescue the British industry under the pacifist Corbyn with a massive armament programme).

    So unless nature takes its course, it is the harshest possible Brexit as neither of the two main parties’ centre is in the position to act – quite a unique situation in political history, although not completely without precedent (1st opium war is a kind of a situation).

  21. @Garj: “It’s an untrue but oft-repeated mantra that EU rules make it ‘impossible’ for the UK to retain any involvement in many of these programs after Brexit. In actual fact it is entirely possible and there are strong precedents for other nations doing the same.”

    As the EU decided that final arrangements require unanimity (and not the qualified majority of A.50), the EU can amend any rule it wants.

    They might as well amend the Treaties given the process they are taking.

  22. @garj

    You seem to be confusing the UK’s apparent wish to continue to be treated as a member state for some activities of its choosing after it has chosen not to be a member state with the EU’s willingness to cooperate with non member states on some programmes of its choosing.

    It’s approach on Europol and Erasmus for example is to work with other non EU states where it is beneficial to do so but they are not member states but participating states. IIRC the EU is negotiating with Norway and the USA about access to encrypted Galileo information but there is as yet no certainty that there will be an agreement. It is not really surprising that the EU does not intend to allow non member states to participate in the development and production of a highly sensitive system and to secure the economic benefits of doing so especially when one has chosen to leave the EU and is in a period of political paralysis and instability.

    It’s about tome that Leavers realised that when they said “leave means leave” the EU are simply agreeing.

  23. It may be worth pointing out that under EU state aid rules and the procurement directive, much of what Corbyn and McDonnell are promising will happen under Labour would be illegal if we remained in the EU, and probably in most of the halfway house arrangements (Customs Union, EEA. etc.).

  24. “The row over Jeremy Corbyn’s approach to Brexit has exploded after five MPs from the party’s northern heartlands broke ranks and openly demanded a new referendum on the UK’s withdrawal deal.
    The MPs from the Northeast [of England, obviously]– which heavily backed Leave in the 2016 referendum – said a new vote is essential because the true nature of Brexit is only just emerging.
    Writing exclusively for The Independent, they warn plans to leave the single market will devastate family living standards as the future of major manufacturers and employers in their region is thrown into doubt.” (Independent)

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-brexit-latest-jeremy-corbyn-eu-referendum-uk-mps-a8343746.html

    Presumably, their political antennae are twitching furiously.

  25. HIRETON

    We’re leaving the EU, not Europe.

    It remains in everyone’s interest to co-operate on the economy, education and security. Which I’m sure we will.

  26. Jones in Bangor

    “We’re leaving the EU, not Europe. ”

    And by not joining EFTA (or an equivalent arrangement) the UK is leaving the EEA – so which parts of “Europe” are we not leaving?

  27. @jboyd

    Except it won’t according to experts in EU law:

    http://renewal.org.uk/blog/eu-law-is-no-barrier-to-labours-economic-programme

  28. @jonesinbangor

    We are somewhere very far past the point where glib, meaningless phrases serve any useful purpose.

  29. The Brexiters sniffed thst the non existent but then leaked Treasury economic impact assessments did not assess their favoured option. The Treasury has now done so and it has been leaked:

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/alexspence/the-brexiteers-customs-plan-would-hurt-145000-uk-companies?utm_term=.ia739OdQm&__twitter_impression=true

  30. This 1.8% reduction in GDP “in the long run” is vague.

    Is it the leak that is incomplete, or the Buzzfeed writer not sure?

    But 145,000 companies hurt looks a lot. I wonder if farmers are classed as companies.

  31. Now, I’m going to commit an absolute heresy here and return the subject to polling and the noble science of psephology. Ian Warren of the independent consultancy, Election Data, has been looking at how, and more importantly, why Labour have slowly been improving its performance in the South of England, particularly outside the already red-leaning capital city. Election Data conducted a very large scale poll of 27,000 people who had recently left London and moved into southern towns and found a young, generally affluent largely pro-Labour and pro-Remain group spreading into previously solidly Tory territory. The regional demographics are changing and changing in ways that are benefiting Labour. This could, in time, be electorally very significant and the 2017 General election, 2018 local election and recent council by-election results underpin the polling. Anyway, notwithstanding Mr Wells maybe picking up on this poll on UKPR (heaven forbid!), here’s the link to the article. I found it both surprising and interesting in equal measure: –

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/may/09/tories-southern-red-south-england-london

  32. Hireton

    Thanks for the link.

    This quotation from the piece to which you linked contains a mild observation.

    “An EU official told BuzzFeed News: “It’s interesting to see so much political capital spent on this.””

    Other descriptions have been quoted elsewhere. “Magical thinking”, “cretinous”, it carries “significant risks” and it is a “dead parrot” are descriptions of May’s customs partnership idea from Brexit Central.

    Brexit Central (Henry Newman) provided a reason for Mrs May’s persistence with the idea.

    “The real reason the Partnership is still on the table is that Downing Street believes it offers the best hope of forestalling a customs union rebellion in Parliament, rather than because of its inherent benefits.”

    https://brexitcentral.com/customs-partnership-proposal-bad-politics-bad-policy-bad-plan/

  33. @ Oldnat

    ‘Presumably, their political antennae are twitching furiously.’

    Maybe … but I think most if not all belong to that ‘party within a party’ who self-describe as the ‘Kamikase rebel alliance’.

  34. CB11:

    That article seems to be based on good research, and is interesting.

    But nowhere else in the UK has outward migration on that scale – over 1 million people in 4 years moving out of London.

    However the areas outside the Northern big cities and Birmingham have more marginal seats susceptible to Labour gains.

    Maybe the Tory austerity programme, that has made many young couples unable to afford city house prices, will lead to the party losing a GE.

  35. Davwel

    “However the areas outside the Northern big cities …… have more marginal seats susceptible to Labour gains.”

    Nah. There aren’t any potential Labour gains near Inverness or Aberdeen. :-)

  36. Laszlo

    I’m sure it is interesting – but it seems to be restricted to subscribers,

  37. Re comment last night that only travel by air or via UK from Ireland is economically viable.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/new-cork-spain-ferry-will-allow-hauliers-to-avoid-uk-after-brexit-1.3488926

    A saving of 1,200 euro per trip per truck on the Cork-Santander ferry compared with driving through Wales, England and France, makes a big difference.

    Though I still hope for the full restitution of the Rosyth-Rotterdam ferry for trips to that part of Europe, the Irish ferries look like an attractive prospect for travelling to more southern parts.

  38. A balanced summary of the Lib Dems local election results here

    https://www.markpack.org.uk/154819/libdem-local-election-results/

    “It’s not just that Lib Dem vote winning efforts do better with Remain than Leave voters. It is also that even in Leave voting areas where the party has done well, the reason many of the key activists in that revival joined the party was Europe.

    Where Europe is, however, benefitting the party only a little, so far, is in winning over urban liberal Remainers who voted Labour in massive numbers in the 2017 general election”

    I am quite surprised that so many remain voters are sticking with Labour, and I expect that support to start to erode. I suspect that is what we started to see in London in the local elections where Labour did worse than expected. Some remainers stayed home or went to the Greens or Lib Dems.

    The result was Conservatives holding on or winning in our first past the post system.(or losing in Richmond, etc)

    Not sure if that is only a local elections thing, or indications of something we can expect to see at the next GE.

  39. I see we have actual vote share up for the London local elections now

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/London_local_elections,_2018

    Actual
    Lab 47%(+4), Cons 31(+1), LD 13(+2), Green 6(-1), Residents 1(0) UKIP 0(-5)

    2014 London Poll
    Lab 43, Cons 33, LD 11, Green 2, UKIP 5
    (overstated Cons by 3, UKIP by 5, understated Green by 5, Lab by 3 vs actual result)

    2018 London Poll
    Lab 51, Cons 29, LD 11, Green 4, UKIP 2
    (overstated Lab by 4, UKIP by 2, understated Cons by 2, LD by 2, Green by 2)

    Looking at that now, I can see my error in taking the 51 for Lab less the 43, and expecting a huge swing to Labour – the 43 was an underestimate, and the 51 was an overestimate, so my error was compounded.

    The 2018 poll result was actually closer than the 2014 poll to the final result – but I think perhaps indicates London polls are biased towards Labour. (the 2018 poll asked both a national voting and a local voting intention – the comparisons are against the local voting question)

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3qleye60sk/QMUL_LondonResults_180424_VI_LocalCouncil.pdf

    I’d like to see other comments on well the polls are performing. From the 2017 national polls being too Tory, I think the balance has now swung the other direction, and they are too Laboury.

  40. Richard: I think you can overstate the influence of Europe on local election results, even for the Lib Dems who have made it their top priority. Hull is one of the most Eurosceptic cities in the UK, but it’s also somewhere the Lib Dems performed very strongly, they enjoyed the most gains they made in any Labour-held council. There just aren’t enough Europhiles in Hull to explain that result. I think a large part of the Lib Dems’ performance at locals is the result of classic pavement politics, and leveraging grievances against unpopular councils (which, due to the difficult decisions they have had to make as their funding from central government has been cut, there are a lot of).

    Of course, that doesn’t mean the Lib Dems will even reach double figures in Hull in a general election, where the Tories are the clear ABL vote.

  41. Trevor Warne,
    ” Both sides have agreed a transition deal in principle but it is not legally dependant on the WA ”

    But nonetheless it presupposes the Uk has committed to an open border with the EU. I would imagine if the withdrawal agreement doesnt happen, nor does any transition agreement, and the EU has been preparing for that eventuality.

    Garj,
    ” Even leaving onto WTO terms still only represents a slowing of growth, not some economic collapse”

    Now there I do not agree and never have, and it is my biggest single objection to leaving. All these estimates of the cost of Brexit only account for more complicated trading arrangements. They do not account for a steady shrinkage of the UK economy as companies dependent upon the EU simply move out of the UK. frankly, this inlcudes the banks.

    I dont see it as a quick process, but I see it continuing for decades. Someone posted last night about the airbus satellite work moving from portsmouth to the EU, lots of that is going to happen.

    Even trevor has agreed this is going to happen, and has talked about the need for special measures to try to stop it happeneing. Well they will not work, for several reasons including that any tory government has an ingrained distaste for subsidy, and slashing corporation taxes is going to be seen as unfair international competition and will be legislated against sooner rather than later. leaving the EU simply cuts the UKs attractiveness as a business base.

    It most probably will lead to a fall in migration, because jobs growth will dry up. A fall in the housing market too. Potentially several decades of slump or negligible growth. And all that is why there will be an apetite to rejoin if matters get that far.

  42. Trevor Warne,
    “my 2c is that it might have held back investment in higher productivity but it is impossible to “prove”

    To what extent can it have held back productivity in farm labourers, care workers or office cleaners? Most likely we have enjoyed having cheaply paid servants to do these jobs for us. So suppose that now instead of working full time as a merchant banker, you now have to stay at home and look after mother, because there are no cheap care workers to be had? The flaw is that getting rid of this cheap labour might not at all help productivity.

    polltroll,
    ” There just aren’t enough Europhiles in Hull to explain that result”

    On the other hand, if the recent poll which found there is a big majority against every proposed form of Brexit, was translated into voting, then one might expect libs to win hands down everywhere.

    Anyone got any further evidence on the public’s distaste for the forms of Brexit currently on offer?

    Richard,
    “I am quite surprised that so many remain voters are sticking with Labour,”

    I’m not, because defeating Brexit is about parliamentary numbers as well as conviction. labour is the best bet. But….labour has to present itself as a clearly remain party. Lots of tories on here trying to argue it is not!

  43. Some cracks appearing on the EU position on Galileo. Spain, Estonia & Sweden voicing concerns about a defence “rupture” & the importance of UK involvement in “security co-operation”.

    France , which is pushing for exclusion of UK from the military side of the technology , last January asked UK for additional help for French operations in the Sahel against Islamic extremists.

  44. @ Danny


    The flaw is that getting rid of this cheap labour might not at all help productivity.”

    My view is that you should have been resident in the UK for 3 years before you qualify for “full” minimum wage.

    Not that I think many workers on farmland in Lincolnshire are actually getting that.

  45. An update on the Aberdeen Peripheral Route completion – back in January when Carillion collapsed some here thought there would be minimal further delays, and the bypass would be open by now.

    Well it`s still not, and yesterday our evening paper had a front pages` article that had a laconic 1-line paragraph – “The new route is expected to open in the autumn”

    Some political opponents may try to cast blame on the SNP for not being clear on the delays, which have frustrated many people. Rather, I think this is a pretty general UK failure in not allowing for the unexpected, and selling schemes on most optimistic completions.

    Relevant to Galileo and GPS/SatNav, yesterday`s article was caused by a new problem.

    Updates to SatNav have been directing drivers onto the incomplete AWPR carriageways. Obviously these haven`t looked different to them from the normal roads cluttered with bollards, construction vehicles and signs, with changes every two/three days.

    Which makes me think keeping SatNav systems supplied with accurate up-to-date information is quite a task.

  46. Two months after UK leaves the EU, Brussels hopes to get agreement on its next Budget (unanimity is required).

    This Budget includes proposals for :-
    *Real terms reductions in CAP spending & Cohesion Funds.
    *Increasing EU’s Border force from 1200 to 10,000.
    *Diverting a slice of national corporate taxation to The Commission..
    *A Brussels defined “Rule of Law” qualification to trigger withdrawal of funding to offending Member States.

    Thus far , France, Ireland, Poland, Hungary & Netherlands have voiced a variety of concerns & objections.Netherlands & other northern members have called the proposed overall increase “unnacceptable”. Brussels has to cover the Brexit induced funding gap of 13 bn euros pa. The Northern Members want spending curtailed-not increased.

    The May 2019 Summit is unlikely to see unanimous approval of The Commission’s Budget.

    The following month -June 2019-European Parliament Elections will be held.

    Will the “populist” tide continue to run ?

  47. Good to see the Commons saw off the attack on press freedom from Miliband and Watson.

    The Lords continuing with their ridiculous posturing on Brexit.
    If I were the Government I would with draw the bill altogether, procced to complete the negotiations to leave the EU including the SM and CU and then reintroduce the a similarly worded new bill at the last minute just before the 2-year Art 50 period comes to an end and dare the Commons and Lords to vote it down which would of course leave the UK in chaos.

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