There have been three more voting intention polls out today (or more, if you count BMG publishing their back catalogue). The regular YouGov poll for the Times had topline figures of CON 42%(-1), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 7%(-1). This was conducted on Monday and Tuesday, so is the first poll we’ve seen conducted since Amber Rudd’s resignation – not that it has had any obvious impact. Asked specifically about that 51% of people thought she was right to resign, 19% think she should have remained in the job.

Asked about immigration policy, the Windrush scandal does not appear to have led to any wider perceptions that immigration policies are too harsh – 21% of people said they thought the government’s immigration policy was too strict, 15% that it was about right, 44% that it was not strict enough. Full tabs are here.

Secondly, BMG released a new poll with topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%. Fieldwork was in mid-April, so before the Windrush scandal really below up. While this is the first published BMG poll we’ve seen for months, they have apparently been conducting them, and have published the backdata for the last four months at the same time. All of that is on their website here, along with the tables.

Finally Survation published a poll containing voting intention for the London local elections overnight. It recorded very similar vote shares to those in the YouGov/Queen Mary University poll a week ago, with CON 31%, LAB 51%, LDEM 12%, Others 6%. Full tables are here.


1,041 Responses to “Latest YouGov and BMG polls, plus Survation London local polling”

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  1. I had just finished updating my polling spreadsheet and graphs when the BMG back data appeared!

  2. Re Windrush/Immigration

    I think what we may be seeing is just how rock solid the Tory vote is, particularly among their key demographic group – pensioners. Nothing the Tories have done recently would have done anything to damage their appeal amongst that group.

    In fact the only risk to the Tory vote amongst this demographic would be a softening of the party line on Brexit.

  3. RAF

    Yep Tories now ahead in the polls by about 2 to 3%

  4. @RAF

    Well, there is always voter id to hit the pensioners..

    https://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0004/194719/Proof-of-identity-scheme-updated-March-2016.pdf

    “It is important to acknowledge that some groups will be less likely than the 4.11 general population to hold certain forms of photo ID. Older people, for example, are less likely to hold passports,”

    “Driving and Vehicle Licensing Agency (DVLA) data suggests that women in 4.14 particular and those under 20 and over 65 are less likely to hold a driving licence”

    No photo id…no vote. Now if we can just require a photo id for those postal votes…

  5. @Richard

    Alas photo ID isn’t actually required. At least not in my local authority, Bromley.

    http://www.bromley.gov.uk/info/200033/elections_and_voting/1177/voter_id_pilot

  6. @RAF

    Well it may as well be a photo id looking at that list. Must have been drawn up by someone who doesn’t own a computer.

    Who still owns a cheque book? Who still gets bank statements/ utility bills etc – they are all online now. What do you do – just print out your online statement? Bizarre :)

  7. Richard

    Who owns a cheque book who still gets bank statements etc.

    Old age pensioners.

  8. I do wish that youGov would prompt SNP/PCY for the questions on which Party is best on key issues rather than just others.

    Given that at least some of these issues are devolved and these Parties are mainly represented in the devolved administrations it would probably give a clearer result.

    Alternatively it might just be worth a Poll where people were asked who they thought was doing a better job in the devoted areas.

    Peter.

  9. Peter Cairns

    It’s always seemed foolish for YG and others to ask those in Scotland & Wales as to their party preference as to which would run English affairs better.

    At best, those responses are meaningless. At worst they might marginally distort the data that is actually relevant.

    It seems blindingly obvious that, if you want to understand the views of those living in a particular polity, that you restrict the questioning to those who actually live there.

  10. Well tomorrow brings the local elections, and here are my predictions/thoughts for what it is worth.

    Clearly Labour have moved ahead compared to 2014 in London, but given they have moved slightly backwards nationally relative to the Tories since Milliband’s time overall, it has to be more than possible that they have fallen back in the shires and districts.

    The 140-odd UKIP seats are a gimme, mostly for the Tories but
    a minority for Labour; I would also expect the Tories to pick up the usual 20 or so from Independents/Residents.

    So I would expect Labour to gain around 100 in London and the Mets, but lose about 50 in the shires/districts, offset by about 40 gains from UKIP, giving a net +90.

    Tories I expect to lose around 100 in London and the Mets, but gain 100 from UKIP, giving no net change

    L Dems I expect to pick up a handful in London and the Mets, plus around 30-40 in the shires and districts, giving net + 50

    UKIP I expect to be almost wiped out, i.e. -140.

    I find it slightly depressing but I don’t think the Tories will get a hammering tomorrow, despite Windrush, the shambles that is Brexit, and most of all Grenfell… nor will Labour pay much of a price for failing to deal with anti-semitism and being badly divided.

    Even the most grotesque governmental incompetence seems to get a free pass these days as a result of the almost total political polarisation we are currently seeing.

  11. @Trevor Warne – FPT – “…Rejoin via A49, stripped of vetoes and rebates is of course something Remain won’t admit to….”

    Minor technical point, but vetoes are defined in the treaties, so new members under A49 can’t be stripped of them. Rebates – another issue.

  12. Average polling lead 1.5%

  13. As far as I know, Labour have always been miles behind Con when it comes to Postal Votes – certainly that is true round here.
    Regarding activism/enthusiasm/Momentum – we have one Con held ward round here which has not been declared a target but has 3 Momentum candidates. They have been consistently getting 20 or 30 people canvassing every time they go out and reckon they have knocked on every door 3 times.
    The adjacent official target ward has non Momentum candidates and is lucky to get 5 people canvassing.
    The non target (Momentum) ward has a somewhat higher identified vote from a lower base.
    It will be most interesting to see how it all pans out.

  14. Guymonde

    That sounds an interesting case which might illuminate the degree to which activism on the ground actually does shift votes.

    Can you report back as to whether there has been a difference in the Con/Lab swing between those two wards?

  15. RAF

    Alas photo ID isn’t actually required. At least not in my local authority, Bromley.

    http://www.bromley.gov.uk/info/200033/elections_and_voting/1177/voter_id_pilot

    They are trialing bdifferent ID requirements in different LAs. I can’t find a comprehensive list of what is required in each of the five (which in itseld suggests there may be confusion but this piece from Stephen Bush:

    https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2018/05/theres-big-problem-governments-voterid-pilots

    which is rightly very critical of it as a trial, says:

    […]Swindon, the closest of the pilot boroughs to the national average, has the toughest ID regime: there, voters must have any of their polling card, passport, photographic driving licence, biometric immigration document, or a photographic identity card issued in the EEA. But the positives end there.

    Bromley is the only London borough in the pilot and it is a poor choice as a use of London testing ground as it is demographically unlike most London boroughs: it is older and whiter that most of the capital. In addition, it has far away the loosest ID requirement of the pilot five: in addition to those forms of ID that are acceptable in Swindon, voters can rock up with any of an 60+ Oyster card, a Freedom Pass, or any PASS ID card. If they don’t have any of those they can also bring any two of the following: a debit card or credit card, a mortgage, bank or credit card statement, a birth certificate, a marriage certificate, a current P45 or P60, a firearms certificate or a non-photographic ID card.

  16. @Oldnat
    Indeed, though it will be hard to disentangle the effects of canvassing etc effort from the relative merits of the individuals and their different approaches to promoting policy.
    The Momentum team are stressing national policy, issues and personalities whereas the others are more focused on local issues, councillors etc.

  17. “In fact the only risk to the Tory vote amongst this demographic would be a softening of the party line on Brexit.”

    ———

    Or their benefits in terms of freebies and assets etc.

    Look what happened when Theresa introduced the new approach to care funding in the GE. It didn’t last long…

  18. “As far as I know, Labour have always been miles behind Con when it comes to Postal Votes – certainly that is true round here.”

    ———

    Ah yes, Postal votes. The double whammy for Labour. First it helps Tories get out the pensioner vote. Then they claim it ups the potential for fraud so they can use it as an excuse to change voter registration, to favour them some more.

  19. “That sounds an interesting case which might illuminate the degree to which activism on the ground actually does shift votes.”

    ———

    Yes and in which direction.

  20. Good luck to any other candidates tomorrow.

    Once Friday lunchtime hits, I’ll be putting my feet up for a bit!

  21. Carfrew

    “Yes and in which direction.”

    Good point!

  22. @MILLIE

    “Every year a group of my friends go on holiday, and throughout their time away there is a ‘banned word’. Anyone using it has to contribute 1 euro to the kitty.
    This year their chosen word was ‘Brexit’.

    An indication, perhaps, of the fact that a lot of people are very fed up with the subject and broadly disinterested in the outcome of the negotiations.”

    ———-

    Presumably there was still sufficient interest in talking Brexit for you to feel the need to ban it??

    Otherwise you won’t be making much money.

  23. Carfrew @ Millie

    Alternatively, Millie’s friends may have wanted to amass an extremely large kitty to spend during their holiday in exotic Bournemouth, and saw that as a rapid source of funding.

  24. One of the strange things about Brexit is the two-side squeezing of democracy.

    We have the argument of “the people decided”. Fair enough, even if in some quarters it is “ein Volk”, and it is certainly democratic, thus arguments against it are problematic. In a way, the referendum was a control against the executive power.

    Then we have the other side. These have the same source as the previous, but instead of weakening the executive power, they are actually about the support of increasing the executive power.

    We have had quite unprecedented attacks on the judicial system (when they gave way to an appeal), against the HoL (they are not elected, but they are part of the system), against MPs who dare to question or follow the rule of law, against individuals who dare to question the executive power (whatever her name is), against civil society organisations, and even against the members of the executive (Rudd, Hammond, for example).

    So, Brexit, unintentionally, while the argument is about taking back control, is a serious weakening of the democratic system.

    It seems that the different counter-balances to the executive power are putting themselves into a fighting mode. It is rather important as in other countries, for example in France, these forces seem to have reacted rather slowly and have already lost the struggle.

  25. @catmanjeff

    “Good luck to any other candidates tomorrow.
    Once Friday lunchtime hits, I’ll be putting my feet up for a bit!”

    Thank you! I know the feeling, I think I’m going to sleep for a week once I’m back in from the count… Good luck to you too!

  26. Roger Mexico, (and all)

    I’m a lot less worried by this scheme is all you need ti take is yout polling card, which is issued free to every registered voter.

    Laszlo.
    ” It is rather important as in other countries, for example in France, these forces seem to have reacted rather slowly and have already lost the struggle.”

    Not following what hapened in France, but the root problem in the Uk is the result was a dead heat, with one side claiming a technical victory. One side thinks it was cheated, and the other demanding the result be honoured with no rethinks allowed.

  27. @oldnat

    “Alternatively, Millie’s friends may have wanted to amass an extremely large kitty to spend during their holiday in exotic Bournemouth, and saw that as a rapid source of funding.”

    ———

    Yes, it seems to be in Millie’s financial interest for people to talk more about Brexit. She mentioned Brexit of course, so she’ll have to put a quid in the kitty herself.

    But then so did I, come to that. Alec, Danny, Howard, Somerjohn, Trevor et al will probably go bankrupt if we introduced such forfeits. We’d need a relief fund or something.

  28. More on how it’s not just the Windrush folk affected.

    “In recent years it has become increasingly difficult to provide evidence that meets Home Office tests. There has been a dramatic shift in culture such that just a few years ago, if you could recall childhood memories of national events in an interview, that would have been accepted as proof that you had grown up in Britain. Today the bar is so high that people have to provide four pieces of documentary evidence for each year they have lived here. The sworn written statements from a doctor or a neighbour that would be accepted as evidence in a criminal court won’t do. The Home Office refuses to grant children in care citizenship unless they can produce documents such as their parents’ birth certificates – even when they are estranged from their birth parents.

    Even if you can get all these documents together, there are two reasons why there’s no guarantee your application will be processed. First, the Joint Council for the Welfare of Immigrants (JCWI) tells me the Home Office is apt to lose people’s files, or claim it has never received documents. Second, every person over the age of nine applying for citizenship or leave to remain is subject to a “good character” test. JCWI has seen people fall foul of this test simply because they have had a previous immigration application rejected for minor errors.

    Worse, according to Solange Valdez-Symonds of the Project for the Registration of Children as British Citizens, there are cases where children in care have had their applications for citizenship rejected because they have been cautioned by the police – all too common for children who have had troubled childhoods.

    If you make even a small error in a complex form that spans tens of pages, your application risks being rejected: JCWI cites rejections as a result of someone getting one figure wrong in one instance of a date filled in multiple times across the same form. While mistakes are rife in Home Office decision-making (half of all immigration appeals are now successful) the right to appeal has been scrapped in most cases. If you’re rejected, your only recourse is to apply – and pay up – again.

    Imagine trying to negotiate your way through all this as a young adult with limited financial resources, who grew up in Britain, who identifies as British – who to all intents and purposes is British. Everything about this system is designed to catch you out, to end in rejection. If you run out of cash or steam, you’ll end up as one of the “illegals” denied access to healthcare, education, housing and a job by Theresa May’s “hostile environment”. Just for Kids Law estimates that tens of thousands of young people could be affected.”

  29. Carfrew,
    Its pretty clear the aim of the policy is to get rid of people with a legitimate claim to citizenship. Not clear how the numbers of these compare to numbers of illegals, but the standard of proof looks ridculously high for differentiating between legitimate and non legitimate claims. The prices charged are obviously intended as a financial barrier to getting Uk citizenship.

    As to how this might play with voter, I am sure there are many tories who would cheer madly, albeit perhaps in secret, since public shows of racism are taboo. And then the labour brexit voters who professed to worry about immigration might not be upset either.

    But it seems likely these groups have already shaken themselves out into voting camps at the recent election and we saw the result. Now the government is trying to ditch its hard immigration stance as this is something of a barrier to remaining in the EU. What we are seeing is groundwork for a reversal on immigration policy, and a recognitiion of the usefulness of the EU open border arrangement. This is already a filter, because it only allows free immigration from a subset of the worlds nations, who are pretty compatible with the Uk population anyway.

  30. Good morning, Danny

    Irish Times has an editorial on the outcome of yesterday’s War Cabinet meeting. I assume Mrs May will seek greater “flexibility” in a full Cabinet meeting.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/editorial/brexit-no-nearer-a-solution-1.3481826

    “For progress to be made, the Conservative government needs to signal new flexibility – and it remains to be seen if this is politically possible.

    There is a lot at stake. If the withdrawal agreement cannot be concluded, then the deal on a transition period after the UK leaves the EU also falls. The EU’s chief negotiator, Michel Barnier, seemed to be trying to take some of the heat out of the situation on his visit to Ireland this week, highlighting that the EU remains open to proposals from London. But he needs the UK to respond by setting out a coherent position. And time is running short.”

  31. Good Morning everyone from sunny exotic Bournemouth as CARFREW and OLD NAT have observed.
    It is a lovely day here and our recovery from a hot London Marathon is continuing, with no actual elections here today, but Labour’s poll deficit is being observed.

  32. @Danny

    As someone who is the child of foreign parents, albeit parents who became British, I don’t tend to see it as inevitably racism. I can see understandable reasons why some might have issues. The research shows that circumstances affect how much people welcome foreign people, and I tend to focus on that. My own Brexit experience has been quite the eye-opener in terms of what affects people. It’s changed my life to be honest…

  33. RAF

    “In fact the only risk to the Tory vote amongst this demographic would be a softening of the party line on Brexit.”

    Yes, i think that’s right.

  34. BFR

    Your seat projection looks reasonable to me.

  35. Carfrew,
    “As someone who is the child of foreign parents, albeit parents who became British, I don’t tend to see it as inevitably racism.”

    There was an interesting discussion on R4 yesterday talking to black people, and the extent to which they see a social gradation, where the whiter the better. (both within the black and white communities). Seems confirmation that people will be happier with white european immigrants than Indians, brazilians or Chinese.

    The Other Howard,
    “RAF: “In fact the only risk to the Tory vote amongst this demographic would be a softening of the party line on Brexit.”

    Yes, i think that’s right.”

    Amongst that demographic. But by itself it isnt enough to ensure electoral victory. Thus parties are always reaching out away from their perceived core vote.

    In this instance the only problem I see is if the tories believe Brexit will be a failure. If they think it will be a success, then all they had to do was get on with it. Instead they have stalled and stalled. Thus I belive that they believe Brexit will be a major vote loser into the future if it takes place. I imagine they think that having destroyed the libs by remoulding them as tory light, the libs suddenly become a real threat again as tory light but EU strong.

  36. @Danny

    “, but the root problem in the Uk is the result was a dead heat, with one side claiming a technical victory. One side thinks it was cheated, and the other demanding the result be honoured with no rethinks allowed”

    You may say that, but to me the results said landslide to leave on a regional and constituency level, especially away from the places that actually did well from EU titbits.

  37. @BigFatRon
    “I find it slightly depressing but I don’t think the Tories will get a hammering tomorrow, despite Windrush, the shambles that is Brexit, and most of all Grenfell… nor will Labour pay much of a price for failing to deal with anti-semitism and being badly divided.

    Even the most grotesque governmental incompetence seems to get a free pass these days as a result of the almost total political polarisation we are currently seeing.”

    The other way of looking at it is that Windrush, Grenfell and even Brexit to an extent are failures of the bureaucracy rather than representative government.

    I found the political response to the breast-screening failures yesterday refreshing because it didn’t degenerate into a political slanging-match with the aim of securing someone’s resignation. The fact that the focus was genuinely on the victims and what needs to be done to avoid a repetition of the failures showed what a ‘new kind of politics’ should really look like.

  38. JONESINBANGOR
    @Danny
    “, but the root problem in the Uk is the result was a dead heat, with one side claiming a technical victory. One side thinks it was cheated, and the other demanding the result be honoured with no rethinks allowed”
    You may say that, but to me the results said landslide to leave on a regional and constituency level, especially away from the places that actually did well from EU titbits”.

    Like the technical victory that was Liverpool’s last week, you mean @Danny? Your definition of ‘dead heat’, is quite bizarre.

  39. @Danny

    “Seems confirmation that people will be happier with white european…”

    ——

    This may be true, but take it from me, there’s been a bit of a deterioration on the white European front since Brexit.

  40. @Danny

    Although these things are perhaps more complex than some realise and some things one might consider an improvement

  41. Just voted. Unlike last time there wasn’t just Tory & UKIP on the ballot!

    C’mon you reds!

    I expect to lose here in Reigate & Banstead though.

  42. @Jboyd

    Actually agree with you re the breast screening issue; but Grenfell and Windrush arise as the consequences of programmes deliberately framed to achieve a policy goal where the likely consequences were highlighted and ignored at ministerial level.

    And the Brexit shambles is a government failure, not one of the bureaucracy; no one in the civil service stopped the cabinet having a discussion about their preferred outcome for over a year after the vote.

    Trying to pass these off as a failure of the bureaucracy is a classic ‘blame the underlings’ manoeuver…

  43. CARFREW

    Just to add to, and confirm, your comments. My husband is not part of the Windrush category but we have had huge problems in the past three/four years due to.a change in policy relating to Indefinite Leave to Remain stamp in the passport. The whole thing has been an unpleasant and beaurocratic nightmare. It has seemed as though they were just making it up as they went along – with the only rule being to make it as difficult as possible.

  44. Just to take a break from current polling, I understand there is a brilliant new book being published today called “Craked Eggs & Chicken Soup”. It is basically about growing up in the East End of London in the inter-War years, but it contains a lot about the politics of the period, the depression and the rise of Mosley and the Blackshirts with an eye-witness account of the Battle of Cable Street.

    It covers appeasement and the decline into War and the start of the War itself.

    AS well as political history It also contains much social history of the period.

    Personally, I’d say it is well worth a read!

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Cracked-Eggs-Chicken-Soup-Growing/dp/1786068796/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1520844802&sr=1-1&keywords=cracked+Eggs+and+chicken+soup

  45. @ Norbold

    It’s cheaper here and less appeasement and decline involved (in my humble opinion of course!) :-)

    https://wordery.com/cracked-eggs-and-chicken-soup-norman-jacobs-9781786068798?cTrk=ODk5MjM3OTR8NWFlYWM1N2MxZTg0OToxOjE6NWFlYWM1NWU1ZWY4ZDAuNDg4NDE5NDQ6NjhlMzA2NjU%3D

  46. Interesting story about a different London.

    https://unherd.com/2018/05/truth-liberal-london/

  47. NORBOLD

    Do you think advertising for the personal commercial interest of the writer is spirit of UKPR ?

  48. @Jonesinbangor
    You may say that, but to me the results said landslide to leave on a regional and constituency level, especially away from the places that actually did well from EU titbits

    Is the last part of that statement true? One of the paradoxes of Brexit seemed to be that places which had a lot EU funding were pretty Brexit minded. Or was that only true of Cornwall

    @Colin

    http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschland/bundeswehr-luftwaffe-hat-nur-vier-kampfbereite-eurofighter-a-1205641.html

    Would you like them to have more or less or is that just right?

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