There have been three more voting intention polls out today (or more, if you count BMG publishing their back catalogue). The regular YouGov poll for the Times had topline figures of CON 42%(-1), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 7%(-1). This was conducted on Monday and Tuesday, so is the first poll we’ve seen conducted since Amber Rudd’s resignation – not that it has had any obvious impact. Asked specifically about that 51% of people thought she was right to resign, 19% think she should have remained in the job.

Asked about immigration policy, the Windrush scandal does not appear to have led to any wider perceptions that immigration policies are too harsh – 21% of people said they thought the government’s immigration policy was too strict, 15% that it was about right, 44% that it was not strict enough. Full tabs are here.

Secondly, BMG released a new poll with topline figures of CON 39%, LAB 38%, LDEM 11%. Fieldwork was in mid-April, so before the Windrush scandal really below up. While this is the first published BMG poll we’ve seen for months, they have apparently been conducting them, and have published the backdata for the last four months at the same time. All of that is on their website here, along with the tables.

Finally Survation published a poll containing voting intention for the London local elections overnight. It recorded very similar vote shares to those in the YouGov/Queen Mary University poll a week ago, with CON 31%, LAB 51%, LDEM 12%, Others 6%. Full tables are here.


1,041 Responses to “Latest YouGov and BMG polls, plus Survation London local polling”

1 19 20 21
  1. TOH

    It was indeed. Ed Miliband seemed somewhat troubled in HoC.

    I see that Nick Timothy has written in today’s DT panning NCP & explaining how Max Fac can meet the NI Border criteria. TM used to listen to everything he said !!
    :-)

  2. Regarding who has the “upper hand” in the Brexit negotiations – YouGov have an interesting (surprising) Eurotrack poll that shows a very different view of the “upper hand” split across different countries.

    “Who do you think has the upper hand in the Brexit negotiations?”

    Asked to chose Britain or rEU

    UK
    Britain 13
    rEU 64
    DK 23

    That is net -51 for UK

    Same method for other countries

    Germany -23
    France – 1 (ie almost equal on “upper hand”!!)

    Brits by far see our own country as having the weakest hand in the negotiations and Barnier’s homeland see both sides as almost equal!?!? Weird.

    @ OLDNAT – Europe is a continent (Eurasia if your talking in a strict geographic sense). EU is a political project. You can leave a political project but we certainly didn’t vote to break away from the Eurasian tectonic plate – did you read that in the Guardian?

  3. @ RICHARD – thank you for some excellent links and info once again.

    @ DANNY – look to Netherlands for how farming can be more productive! There are limits on some jobs for sure but the point about productivity is it has been easier for companies to hire cheap labour than invest in new technology that would increase output per hour worked (the formula for productivity). We should both agree, we should not be competing on wages – yet stuck in the CU with a lazy fairre govt that is what has been happening (if you want to steal a model from physics then consider “diffusion” – with no barriers and no genuine competitive advantages the common market will “average” out disposable incomes, the + part of which is wages)

    As for borders, every border has two sides. It is UK’s job to “control” one side of the border, not the other side. Let’s assume inner cabinet finally agree on MaxFac Customs Arrangements today then for NI specifically in a “no deal” scenario

    People – covered by CTA (and already agreed in principle between EU and UK). Also RoI is not in Schengen.
    Goods – UK implement unilateral MaxFax with unilateral recognition of EU sanitary regs, etc, etc. (ie no need for border checks on agri-food, possibly other sectors if we chose). We use the clauses I’ve posted before for temporary unilateral UFT exemption within GATT to allow small companies in certain sectors (e.g. agri-food) to avoid tariffs (RoI exports into NI). UK side “police” away from the border. What RoI do is up to their masters in Brussels!
    Services – not covered by CU and SM is not 100% either. This is where people need to be very careful about wanting a Canada deal and why EU (especially Macron) would love UK to end up with CU+SM deal (and hence why they are never going to allow us to Remain as if we’d never left – lose of rebate would be the starting point of rejoining negotiations and would go downhill from there – IMHO but please make a case if you see it differently).

  4. @Colin

    TOH

    It was indeed. Ed Miliband seemed somewhat troubled in HoC.

    I see that Nick Timothy has written in today’s DT panning NCP & explaining how Max Fac can meet the NI Border criteria. TM used to listen to everything he said !!
    :-)

    Wasn’t Nick Timothy the SPAD who advised/urged May to call the snap election in 2017 too? Not a great track record, is it, in terms of wisdom, and he’s got bad form on other issues too. Is anyone still listening to him, either inside or outside the Tory Party? My understanding was he became toxic, as did his sidekick Fiona somebody, whilst he was advising May and he remains largely loathed. I’m ashamed to admit that he is a fanatical Aston Villa supporter too. Prince William, David Cameron, Nick Timothy? What on earth have we done to deserve it/them?

    By the way, aren’t you and old TOH being a bit harsh on Miliband? As he told the Commons yesterday, all he was really doing was urging the House to honour the promises he, Clegg and Cameron made on Leveson II. When you say “troubled”, aren’t you confusing that with passion and genuine anger. I think those emotions are good to see in our public discourse, now so disfigured by fakery, blandness and insincerity, not to say outright dishonesty at times. Good luck to him and Watson, I’d say. It was good to see Lammy recently very angry about Windrush. It gave what he said authenticity. Javid had a go too the other day.

    The fact that Milliband and Watson aren’t batting for old Rupe and the Dacre Geezer doesn’t mean they’re wrong, you know.

  5. CB11

    Apparently we need a totally free press so that they’re totally free to publish malicious untruths – such as in this case:

    https://www.theguardian.com/media/2018/may/09/sunday-telegraph-pays-substantial-damages-to-london-mosque-chief

  6. CB11

    @”Wasn’t Nick Timothy the SPAD who advised/urged May to call the snap election in 2017 too? ”

    Not sure about that-but he was one of the duo-along with Fiona Hill, who were blamed for the conduct of the Campaign.

    @”Is anyone still listening to him, either inside or outside the Tory Party? ”

    I hope so-his Blue Collar Tory/ Jo. Chamberlain Municipal activism has a lot going for it in my book. Not sure how good he is on Elections though :-)

    @”. When you say “troubled”, aren’t you confusing that with passion and genuine anger. ”

    No-it was a euphemism.

    @”The fact that Milliband and Watson aren’t batting for old Rupe and the Dacre Geezer doesn’t mean they’re wrong, you know.”

    Watson is batting for Max Mosley -which makes him totally untrustworthy with Press Freedom. I agree that it was good to see Ed Miliband getting excited about something in HoC-or indeed being present there at all.

  7. CROFTY

    ……….the London High Court having applied The Law.

  8. COLIN

    Yes – but as you will obviously be aware in such cases, retrospective punishment does not mitigate the original, intended effects of malicious attacks such as these.

    If you were treated like that by the press I doubt you would get a great deal of satisfaction at being exonerated a long time after.

    Newspapers should largely be about what their title suggests and, whilst occasional mistakes are understandable, deliberate distortion is just not acceptable in my view.

  9. Yougov poll out at midday apparently

  10. @Colin

    “@”. When you say “troubled”, aren’t you confusing that with passion and genuine anger. ”

    No-it was a euphemism.”

    A euphemism? Crikey, that’s intriguing. My understanding is that a euphemism is a more neutral /gentle term to describe something much worse. The use of the word “troubled” as a euphemism? What on earth must you mean? The mind boggles.

    As for the rest of what you say, I think you’re letting your dislike of Watson cloud your judgement on what he’s doing and what motivates him. He’s been championing the causes of individuals damaged by fallacious or intrusive press allegations, devoid of any public interest justification, for a long time and Mosely has only quite recently supported his campaign financially. He’s quite entitled to do that and Watson’s commitment to this worthy cause predates Moseley’s involvement with him. I’d say he’s batting for wronged individuals rather than Mosely, quite bravely too in the face of the vast and wealthy Murdoch organisation. Murdoch is batting, as always, for himself and his commercial interests. Your accusations about Watson smack of the sort of thing Murdoch and his organisation have been saying; straight out of their play book too.

    As for Timothy, you appear to miss him rather more than most of the people who worked with him inside the Tory Party. You may well know about and appreciate his merits more than they do, I have no idea. My understanding was that he became a reviled figure within the Party, as did Hill.

    @Crofty

    An interesting example you give. The use of the expression “free press” in the context of the British newspaper industry is one of the great misnomers of our time. Most of these publications are just the witless playthings of, and mouthpieces for, their overbearing proprietors and editors.

  11. Crossbat11,
    re migration from london: presumably people move out of london because of things such as property prices. So one might imagine a surge in house prices would be accompanied by a surge of labour voters moving into the shires.

    The property price recovery post 2008 crash might have precipitated more labour voters into the shires, hence explaining some of the labour boost in 2017 even as compared to 2015.

  12. SAM

    “Your views are well in advance of those held by the UK government which has yet to decide what, if any, kind of trade deal it actually wants.”

    _____

    I can’t argue with that one. There was a stretch of time from the signing of the draft withdrawal agreement up until pretty recently when all the noises and statements coming out of negotiations and the government were supportive of the Canada-style free trade deal I outlined. It seems, though, that May has been blowing in the wind again. She ditched one set of advisors after she was accused of only listening to them and ignoring all other opinions, only to replace them with another bunch who have been pushing her down a Customs Partnership route that everybody else knows is unworkable nonsense.

    RICHARD

    The London polls were predicting a Labour lead of 21%, a swing of 4% since the last time these elections were contested. The actual result was a Labour lead of 16%, a swing of 1.5%. That’s a pretty huge error, of a similar scale to their disasters of 2015 and 2017. They may have been a bit closer to the mark on the national share in the locals, but that would suggest that they must have just been getting it wrong in the other direction outside of London. It looks like the polling companies still have a lot of work to do to get their methodology right.

  13. trevor warne,
    ” it has been easier for companies to hire cheap labour than invest in new technology that would increase output per hour worked”

    I am still waiting for those cleaning robots and health care robots to arrive, despite seeing them on Tomorrows World 40 years ago.

    “UK implement unilateral MaxFax with unilateral recognition of EU sanitary regs, etc, etc.”

    certainly the Uk could unilaterally implement all EU rules and reguations. But then, Brexit means continuing to comply fully with all EU rules but giving up the power to make those rules. Better than not being part of their market, but still barmy.

    “Brits by far see our own country as having the weakest hand in the negotiations and Barnier’s homeland see both sides as almost equal!?!? Weird.”

    Not really, consider the relative positions. From the continent, the Uk has decided to leave and is negotiating what it wants. Sides have equal influence.

    From Briain, the conduct of our negotiations seems a total shambles and cannot deliver the kind of Brexit which leave promised. Clearly the other side has control of the situation, because we do not.

    The difference is that the continent sees the Uk government getting what it has asked for, whereas UK voters see the UK government as delivering something other than it promised. The leave campaign succeeded by making undeliverable promises, making the position of any Uk government impossible.

  14. DANNY

    You seem to be in some kind of denial that there is such a thing as productivity-increasing technology. You might want to take a look at the computer, or the tractor, or the self-checkout machines next time you’re in the supermarket. The entirety of human progress has been driven by technological improvements in productivity, without them GDP can not go up. Last time I was in Norway I was struck by how common high-end automatic coffee machines were in places where here we’d have a human making hot drinks. We used to have robots which washed cars, nowadays it’s done by gangs of minimum-waged Eastern Europeans. Rather than a knee-jerk reply, do as TW suggested and take an actual look at how productive farming in the Netherlands is; their output per acre and per hour worked is absolutely astounding, and it’s down to investment in technology. There are an awful lot of things that can be done to improve productivity, but there is no benefit for businesses in making those investments when labour is plentiful and cheap.

  15. Yougov/times

    Con 43 (+1)
    Lab 38 (-)
    Ldem 9 (+2)

  16. “do as TW suggested and take an actual look at how productive farming in the Netherlands is; their output per acre and per hour worked is absolutely astounding, and it’s down to investment in technology.”

    Ignoring that some of it is down to lower animal welfare standards, last I checked NL was also an EU member and as such has the same access to cheap labour.

    How then is being a member or not going to make any difference here? Clearly this is a national government policy problem, is the idea that brexit will somehow force the country to change? That seems naively optimistic verging on plain delusional. It’s a bit sledgehammer to crack a nut, only it’ll likely miss the nut and do considerable collateral damage elsewhere.

  17. FROSTY

    Not much to look at there, all very MoE. Promising for the LDs but not exactly dramatic, they’ll have to wait and see whether their better than expected performance is the start of a recovery. As in my 11.26 post anyway, I have very strong doubts that the polls are any more accurate than they were this time last year.

  18. Another one with the Lib Dems towards the top of their range. They need to keep going up before things get interesting here in Montgomeryshire.

  19. No indication yet of when the EU withdrawal Bill, as amended by their Lordships, will return to the commons: with the summer recess scheduled for Mid to Late July or thereabouts, this says something about the governments confidence. There are already rumours that the Trade Bill and other key Brexit legislation will be postponed to the autumn for fear of government defeats. Whatever your view on Brexit this is a situation that cannot be allowed to continue or we will have few important laws in operation come March 2019, which could lead to commercial chaos.

    On another front even given the ERG “distrust” of civil servants carrying out the negotiation I would think even those who follow that line of thinking would be concerned by this article:

    https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-cabinet-brexit-impasses-stalemate-gloom-descends-boris-johnson-challenge/

    We have political pygmies at the very time we need giants

  20. Yougov tables are out too. The raw data for Lab and Con only has a two point difference, Labour voters are a bit less likely to vote though which i think is what is causing the larger headline gap. Notable that only 56% of 2017 LAB voters think Corbyn would make the best PM which i think is the lowest yet, and 68% of current VI LAB voters think the same. Comparative figures for Theresa May are 84% and 93%

    Be interesting to see whether there will be any changes when a decision is made on Brexit.

    On a separate note, the London sample had 136 people and had to be weighted up to 221 people. I have seen this happen quite a bit, surely there should be a way of trying to include more London people to get a better representative sample of their views?

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/gkdmvglevl/TimesResults_180509_VI_Trackers.pdf
    .

  21. @ DANNY – there is a huge difference between

    a/ CU+SM rules which would be:

    full, permanent, all encompassing regulatory acceptance for goods and trust that EU “play nice” of services

    b/ Unilateral “getting on with it” which in this specific case only applies to small companies near Irish border and the agri-food sector for a temporary period (all allowable under GATT and overseen by WTO)

    @ JAMESB – Good point on NL. The UK adopted a “lazy fairre” attitude to EU membership which has created the wide and widening deficit in goods. We’ve been too reliant on service exports (where EU has dragged it’s heels on liberalisation) but for sure the problem lies with successive UK govts back to at least Major if not before but compounded by the EU’s slow liberalisation on UK’s one major developed competitive advantage and then the Eastern expansion that followed the collapse of USSR.

    I’m personally on the fence regarding immigration but certainly if cheap labour becomes harder to obtain then businesses will have to adjust to that – certainly HMG could and should be doing a huge amount more to “incentivise” the adjustment, starting with clarity on Plan A and Plan B then a positive set of policies and message to business.

    P.S. IMHO there is also an issue of “flexibility” in labour markets that encourages some countries to invest in technology rather than hire workers that they might then struggle to fire (barriers to exit in economics parlance) but increasing “barriers to exit” is not the way to encourage long-term sustainable jobs. Bit of a tangent into training and retraining…

  22. CROFTY

    @”deliberate distortion is just not acceptable in my view.”

    Clearly not-who could disagree.

    But don’t the Courts have to test what is or is not “distortion” before punishment is handed down?

    Would you want the Mosleys, the Grants, the Coogans & the rest of them to adjudicate on which Press reports are free publicity for their money making Image and which are not ?

  23. Thanks FROSTY. I note the “hindsight” Right/Wrong to Leave is within MoE movement this week and doubt anyone will mention it ;)

    I understand the benefit of tracker questions but let’s hope other pollsters ask some useful Brexit forward looking questions while we wait for someone to invent a mass production time machine!

  24. Garj

    Technically, the LD movement is more than MOE. The standard error of the mean for a party on 7% with a sample size of 1648 would be about 1.2%. As the previous figure was 6.7% before rounding and the minimum they can be in this new poll is 8.5% either we have movement or a fairly unlikely shift. Once we get the tables we can assess how unlikely this shift was.

    As with any movement we’ll have to wait and see further polls for the most likely explanation for the movement.

  25. CB11

    @” He’s been championing the causes of individuals damaged by fallacious or intrusive press allegations, devoid of any public interest justification, for a long time ”

    Forgive the choking sound from me.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/labour/11944910/Tom-Watson-questioned-over-role-in-Lord-Brittan-police-investigation-live.html

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/11/deserved-downfall-tom-watson-leon-brittan

  26. Looking at the latest polls by companies polling in the last couple of months we get averages of;

    Con 41
    Lab 39
    LD 9

    with all those polls within the MoE of these figures. It seems pretty clear that Con have moved ahead because of a slight Lab drop and that the Lib Dems have moved up a little bit – they have been averaging 7-7.5 or thereabouts for a long time.

  27. @TW, i did wonder whether to mention it or not but i don’t think the average of, say, 5 consecutive polls can have changed since October last year so its not worth it.

    Re: lib dems, the two previous yougov’s had them on 8, the last IPSOS had them on 10% and last BMG at a post-2017 election high of 11%. I think they have generally nosed up a bit but they have a long way to go.

  28. COLIN

    “Mussolini must be smiling .”

    He’s dead.

  29. Mutual recognition or full blown acceptance of standards/regulations. EU v Global. Example – tyres

    Since 1952, there has been a World Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle regulations, with UK joining in 1963 (all well ahead of joining EEC, let alone EU)
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_Forum_for_Harmonization_of_Vehicle_Regulations

    The EU add their stamp on the Global harmonized standards and regulations, (EC) No 1222/2009 for tyre labelling.

    Check your tyres – they display radius as inches, clearly not the sole work of the EC!

    It would be absurd for UK to stop following Global harmonized standards and regulations and equally absurd for someone to inflate NTBs in a predictive model of sector based impacts based on a view that we would chose to start making up our own standards and regulations for tyres.

    Taking back control does not mean unilaterally abandoning global standards and regulations when it makes huge economic sense to simply adopt them and we can trust that those Global standards meet UK consumer expectations.

  30. @ FROSTY – LDEM would be interesting at a seat level in a GE.

    YouGov’s model would probably pick up the following, (although they place a huge MoE range on their predictions):
    – they have a “geographic” niche in S.W.London and other “right-Remain” seats (+3 seats?)
    – they might/might not have lost their geographic/democratic niche in coastal retiree hotspots (-2 seats?)
    – Scotland, maybe +1 (N.East Fife)

    The difficulty in predicting LDEM % and seats is the tactical versus protest vote. In seats where LDEM are a distant 3rd and it is a close call between CON and LAB which way would they go? I’m yet to be convinced that any model, even YouGov, does a good job of predicting the tactical vote. I can model up scenarios where:

    a/ LDEM win more of the Remain (protest) vote and cost LAB 20+ seats for virtually no gain to themselves and hence tipping CON into majority
    b/ LDEM get even smarter on tactical voting than 2017 and use “wasted votes” to help tip LAB into winning 20+ seats from CON (at no cost to themselves)
    c/ LDEM fear of Corbyn PM has the opposite effect on “wasted votes” and they help tip CON into winning 20_ seats from LAB (at no cost to themselves)

    My guess is LDEM will not do any pre-GE pacts and make no coalition promises hoping to win seats on their own merits, leaving the tactical vote down to grassroots groups and individual preference at a seat level.

    Of course we also have to consider CON-Remain might tactically vote LDEM (at risk of Corbyn?) and should also note that some tactical voting did occur in 2017 GE (which might reverse in the next one).

    LDEM could get 9% of the vote but in terms of seats that might be stuck at 12 or up to 30. It could make them ‘kingmakers’ but IMHO the tactical voting impact on CON and LAB marginals would be far more important and that is very difficult to predict.

  31. Difficult to think the lib dems could increase their seat numbers substantially unless their VI increases a lot – there were only 20 seats where they lost by less than 10,000 votes in 2017. Richmond might look good for them, Sheffield Hallam too given the labour candidate problems. Fife North East could be good given the large vote for other unionists. No idea about the other close ones, further out, St Albans got quite a high Labour vote and the lib dems could tap into that?

    In reality i think there will be a lot of water under the bridge before the next election so things will change a lot.

    http://www.electionpolling.co.uk/battleground/targets/liberal-democrat

  32. GARJ

    I doubt if it is Spads that affect Mrs May’s negotiating positions. It is more likely to be her Cabinet colleagues and the party.

    While Corbyn refuses to contemplate membership of the SM though the membership is very much in favour of it, members of the Conservative party oppose EEA membership.

    https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2018/02/our-survey-party-members-overwhelmingly-oppose-the-norway-option-the-majority-against-a-swiss-model-is-less-emphatic.html

  33. garj,
    ” I was struck by how common high-end automatic coffee machines were in places where here we’d have a human making hot drinks. We used to have robots which washed cars, nowadays it’s done by gangs of minimum-waged Eastern Europeans. ”

    I think you perhaps chose bad examples, because many would consider it is prefereble to have waitress service and human car washing. So mechanisation would reduce the perceived quality of service and be a backwards step. It might be you have identified one reason why we have low productivity, because the GDP number fails to capture the value we place on human rather than mechanical service.

    You are arguing that if we leave the EU, then we will have to replace human servants with machines, but this will be seen as a lowering of our quality of life.

  34. @Frosty

    There are some interesting details in the tables. For example in Likelihood to Vote on Page 2, London only has 64% responding 9/10 against 18% responding 0/1. If we go back to the corresponding table for 24-25th April the figures were 66% against 6%. As a city that mainly votes Labour this may indicate a softening of support for them.

    Also on Britain’s exit from the EU on Page 5 If you look at the percentage of a party’s VI saying their party is best for this the figures are (Con/Lab/Lib) 75%:46%:60%. This is worse for Labour than their normally poor issues: Defence & Security and Asylum & Immigration.

    Only straws in the wind of course, but it may be an indication that Labour’s ambiguous position on our relation with the EU after Brexit is becoming increasingly difficult to sustain.

  35. new thread

  36. New thread…

  37. OLDNAT @ BZ

    Mea culpa. I should have said orchestrated or facilitated, since the Irish government had to supervise the changes in Dublin port to make the plan viable.

  38. JONESINBANGOR @ BZ

    We’ll see where that ferry eventually sails between!

    Agreed. Let’s hope that HMG can stop bickering internally long enough to appoint a grown-up to negotiate the RoI/NI border issues.

  39. GARJ @ BZ

    Clearly we’ll have to agree to differ and wait and see what happens in the next round of negotiations, if indeed there is one.

  40. @Hireton

    I think the authors of the report you link to are wrong about State Aid. They have also misinterpreted Labour’s intentions; they’re also basing their analysis on the 2017 manifesto. And even so, they find almost a third of Labour’s specific policies could be open to contention.

    They base their argument on the assumption that the market could not deliver the economic outcomes Labour would be seeking to achieve and this would be contested in the courts.

    And they haven’t considered other EU regulations (such as the Procurement Directive).

1 19 20 21