The Guardian released their latest poll from ICM earlier today. Topline voting intention figures were CON 42%(nc), LAB 39%(-2), LDEM 8%(+1). Changes are from early April and fieldwork was Friday to Sunday, so once the Windrush scandal was in full throw but before Amber Rudd’s resignation. While the changes are well within the normal margin of error, three points matches the largest Tory lead ICM have recorded since the election (and bear in mind the last two weekly YouGov polls also showed the Tory lead at a post-election high). In other words, while I would still urge caution about reading too much into a couple of polls showing a similar pattern, it’s possible that the Conservatives are opening up a small lead. It is worth keep an eye on at least.

Voting intention polls don’t tell us that much at this stage of the Parliament, but if the Tories have improved their position relative to Labour over the last few weeks then perhaps Thursday’s local elections may not be so bad for them as they might have been (for what it’s worth, when the same council wards were last fought in 2014 the Labour party had a small lead in the national polls… but of course, the polls back then were likely over stating Labour, so that does not necessarily imply a swing to the Tories). On the subject of local elections, Survation have said they’ll be releasing some London local election polling overnight.

Turning back to the ICM poll they also asked about the impending visit by Donald Trump. 33% of people said they supported Trump’s visit, 31% were opposed, 33% neither supported nor opposed it. Full tabs for the poll are here.

UPDATE: As well as the ICM poll, there is also a new ComRes poll out for the Sunday Express. As with ICM fieldwork was Friday to Sunday, so at a time when Windrush was all over the news, but before Amber Rudd resigned. Topline figures with changes from mid-April are CON 40%(nc), LAB 40%(-1), LDEM 9%(+2). The parties are neck-and-neck, rather than the slight Tory lead we’ve seen in other recent polls, but it does not suggest that the Windrush scandal has had any impact.


183 Responses to “Latest ICM and ComRes voting intention polls”

1 2 3 4
  1. TW

    oops -sorry-pdf!!

    clickable link to Press Release “Fact Sheet” in Section 1 of this :-

    http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_IP-18-3570_en.htm

  2. @ SJ – So what is best for UK in the current range of possible outcomes, don’t duck the question. Let’s pretend it is a new referendum:

    – EU’s proposed deal (assume Turkey or suggest something else)
    – No deal (assume WTO with a few mini add-ons and transition on near current EU terms until Dec’20)

    Make the case for Turkey versus no deal. I’ve made the case for no deal many many times and since it is the default then time is on my side for that outcome.

    You do make a very valid point about Brexit ensuring “EU freed of its most recalcitrant, uncommitted, non-constructive member”.

    Would you go as far as agreeing that at least one country (and it only needs to be one) in EU27 will not want us back (at least not back on the pre Jun’16 terms!) and hence revoke+remain is a n4ive at best, outright deceit IMHO. Rejoin via A49, stripped of vetoes and rebates is of course something Remain won’t admit to but by frustrating Brexit they are helping to ensure the default outcome.

  3. TW

    Another little beauty in the small print :-

    “Rebates
    – The United Kingdom leaving the EU provides an opportunity to address the complicated system of rebates and even “rebates on rebates”. The Commission proposes to eliminate all rebates and to
    reduce from 20% to 10% the amount Member States keep when collecting customs revenues (being one of the “Own Resources”) for the EU budget. Both measures will make the EU budget simpler and fairer.
    – In order to avoid any sudden and drastic increases in contributions for some Member States, theCommission proposes to phase out the current rebates over a period of five years.”

    :-) :-) :-)

  4. SAM

    “The fantasy remains that the EU is to blame for most of the negotiating difficulties that the UK faces.”

    It may or may not be fantasy (depending on your view of Brexit) but I suspect the public will blame the EU for any downside.

  5. @ COLIN – :-) :-) indeed!

    Just reading your link (thank you). OK the MFF is draft and full of issues that several countries are going to object to but good to see some “clarity” on what Revoke+Remain (or for more honest folks Rejoin via A49) would look like.

    I doubt Austria, Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands and Sweden will be very happy about losing their rebates but since they only had temporary rebates then not much they can do about it, other than also leave of course… ;)

    Elsewhere I’m sure you saw
    “4. An EU budget for a strong and stable Economic and Monetary Union”

    I have to say it for whoever wrote that press release up, they certainly have a dark sense of humour!

  6. @Patrickbrian thanks

    @Peter Cairns

    Charles,
    “My impression is that very many people think Brexit is not a big issue”
    So why o polls consistently show it as the publics current top concern?

    Looks like a knock-out punch!

    My impression is (like Millie’s) based on people I talk to. Clearly there are many people to whom Brexit does matter – me for a start but also a lot of people on this site like the redoubtable TOH.

    So the issue is what proportion of the electorate put Brexit as the top concern as against (say) the NHS, the Economy, Law and order or any other options they are offered. (This is not a rhetorical question – I don’t know and presumably the numbers will vary with the length of the list and the options on it or, with whether it is an open ended question that is coded after the event)

  7. TW: @ SJ – So what is best for UK in the current range of possible outcomes, don’t duck the question.

    That’s like asking, “which would you rather lose, your eyes or your legs?”

    All the alternatives are bad compared with the status quo. If you forced me to choose, i’d go for the Norway option – EEA and EFTA membership. But I guess we’ll end up with a CETA-style agreement, ie free trade in goods but not services. Which we can probably agree is pretty much the worst of all worlds. But that’s where the Leave vote is probably taking us, and if that’s what people want, I’m relaxed about that.

    Incidentally, someone else responded to one of my posts about brexit outcomes using the word ‘catastrophic’. I’d in fact said ‘disastrous’, which I think is one grade milder. But the reason I’m pessimistic is that I expect post-brexit UK to be a much less attractive place to do business, resulting in a collapse in inward investment and a major rundown in existing facilities – both in manufacturing and services. As you surmise, there will be a lot of re-shoring – but I expect it to be reshoring by EU, US and Japanese companies exiting the UK. The effect will be a lot more than the proferred 0.2% of GDP pa.

  8. Post-election high for the Lib Dems?

    CON 39
    LAB 38
    LIBD 11

    BMG – fieldwork 10-13 April so quite old.

    http://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmgs-westminster-voting-intention-results-update/

  9. @ SJ – I’ve previously pointed out the winners of UK being trapped inside CU are the likes of VW, etc (as represented by SMMT) and the rent-seekers required to balance the UK’s cashflow (e.g. EDF). How many UK Audi plants do you think will be reshored to Germany? (clue, none as they don’t build Audis in UK!). You can only “reshore” something if those goods are currently being made abroad and sold into your home market.

    I’ll add some numbers from the “status quo” that we had back in 2016:
    “the UK recorded a trade deficit with the EU in 2016: a surplus of £14 billion in services was offset by a deficit in goods of £96 billion, resulting in an overall trade deficit of £82 billion.

    “Reshoring” of goods between EU and UK starts from a position of UK being £96 billion/year in deficit!! I respect that the German car cartel has some monopolistic pricing power but paying 10% tariff on finished cars will they:
    a/ take a hit on profits to maintain market share
    b/ risk losing market share to UK based producers and pass on the tariff to UK consumer (as assumed by most models that predict a disaster)
    c/ move production to UK

    My guess is in the short-term and certainly up until we have actually left and have clarity on the future arrangements it will be purely a/ (as we’ve seen since Jun’16) then if we have a WTO arrangement we’ll see a mix of b/ and c/. Whether other producers, home-grown or 3rd country, step in to seize the opportunity is TBA but obviously a more aggressive approach from HMG could help “incentivise” reshoring of a large chunk of our current £96 billion/year deficit in goods with the EU)

    In contrast and even stuck in the protectionist CET and with EU’s bad trade deals:
    “The UK had a trade surplus with non-EU countries in 2016 of £39 billion – a deficit in goods of £39 billion was offset by a surplus in services of £78 billion. The UK has now recorded a trade surplus with non-EU countries every year since 2012.”

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/economy-business/economy-economy/uk-trade-a-deficit-in-goods-but-a-surplus-in-services/

    If you can make a case for EU winning a reshoring battle when we are already £96 billion/year in deficit with the EU then I’d love to hear to it.

  10. The meeting of the Brexit war Cabinet has ended with Mrs May’s idea of a customs partnership outvoted – but not yet abandoned.

    The meeting was an irrelevance. The only way of having a frictionless border at NI / Ireland is for NI and Ireland to be together in a single market. This can be done by the UK remaining in a SM and CU with the EU after Brexit or by NI itself remaining a part of the EU customs territory. Both options are currently ruled out by Mrs May. The fantasy remains that there can be no hard border.

    For now there can be no agreed Withdrawal Agreement, no transition period and the trajectory is on a “no deal” Brexit. There are still a lot of possibilities in play regarding Brexit. My guess is that we are stuck here for a while.

  11. TW: “How many UK Audi plants do you think will be reshored to Germany? (clue, none as they don’t build Audis in UK!).”

    You do write some weird stuff. I could write:” How many JLR plants will be reshored from Germany to the UK? (clue, none as they don’t build Jaguars and Land Rovers in Germany!)” And that would be just as meaningless as what you wrote.

    However, since you seem to prefer debating in terms of car plants, here are the plants that could be re-shored from the UK:

    Honda, Swindon – to Japan (facilitated by new EU-Japan trade deal, and presumably a UK-Japan FTD)

    Toyota, Derby and Deeside – ditto

    Nissan Sunderland – to Japan or France

    Mini, Cowley – to Germany, Austria or Netherlands

    JLR – to India, China and Slovakia.

    Right. Now which UK-owned car plants in the EU do you expect to be re-shored to the UK? Come on, don’t duck the question.

  12. @trevorwarne

    Thanks for your post which confirms that Brexiters have no substantive or compelling answers to those critical questions on the benefits of future trade deals.

  13. @TW

    Oops, forgot Vauxhall at Ellesmere Port – all too easy to re-shore to ex-GM plants in Germany or Spain, or PSA in France or Spain.

  14. Sam,
    “The meeting was an irrelevance. The only way of having a frictionless border at NI / Ireland is for NI and Ireland to be together in a single market.”

    Indeed, and the cabinet must know Mays new plan will be rejected by the EU. So the meeting must have been about strategy and whether it is a useful to negotiate and waste time over a plan they will reject, or skip over that and move on to something else.

    But the lords seems to be giving them a kicking. Strategy might go, May proposes mysterious partnership. Before it ever gets put to the EU, lords intervenes and requires CU. Thus May never put to the test of what she would do had the EU rejected this proposal. It is important for the tories for them to be seen to be defeated by parliament… so as not to upset their brexit inclined voters.

  15. So essentially the UK Government is so divided that it is unable to agree on two options regarding one of the most critical aspects of Brexit less than a year before Brexit neither of which hardly anybody outside of Government consider to be practicable and which its negotiating counterpart has already indicated are unrealistic.

  16. DANNY

    Maybe. The Guardian suggests that there was likely to be serious discussion of the hybrid and max fac ideas.

    “One remain-supporting cabinet minister told the Guardian earlier that they expected the prime minister to make a “big push” for her preferred option at the meeting, but Whitehall officials suggested she would stop just short of ditching the alternative.

    Brexiter sources claimed that the prime minister had been told eight times by civil servants that her preferred option, which is backed by her top Brexit civil servant Olly Robbins, was unworkable but has continued to stick with it.”

  17. @TW -“We don’t need to sign the WA for both sides to agree a transition deal as transition agreements and arrangements are not covered by Article 50 (the only legal commitment we have signed). I’ll relink Article 50 for you as you seem to have forgotten it (again)”

    Hmm. Don’t understand this at all. No WA means no transition, as the transition deal is in the WA. The WA has nothing to do with A50 either.

  18. Good Evening everyone.

    As one of the chosen few to be involved in the Voter ID trial tomorrow, I genuinely hope the excercise helps to substantially reduce the number of imposters that have previously attempted to illegally vote in my local authority’s elections.

    I fully understand that a reduction from zero presents a difficulty but I have the utmost faith that it will prove to be possible.

  19. @Hireton

    “So essentially the UK Government is so divided that it is unable to agree on two options regarding one of the most critical aspects of Brexit less than a year before Brexit neither of which hardly anybody outside of Government consider to be practicable and which its negotiating counterpart has already indicated are unrealistic.”

    Yes that’s about the shape of it. It’s becoming increasingly obvious the Government doesn’t want to leave the EU at all. If they were serious, they would by now have a clear position on the kind of CU they wanted, together with highly developed FTA proposal.

  20. @RAF

    At least Danny concurs with you on that one!

  21. Danny

    I am interested in your idea (assuming I have it right) that the PM and colleagues are negotiating a retreat from Brexit.

    I do not think you are right. It seems to me that Mrs May is seeking to protect her own position as PM while also avoiding civil war within the Conservative party. It is this that has made negotiations difficult for government and prevented it even reaching a negotiating position. As I have been saying for a good while it is impossible to negotiate if there is uncertainty about what it is you wish to achieve in negotiation.

    The NI / Ireland border is incapable of resolution while the “red lines” exist. This particular can has been kicked down the road repeatedly. I think it may well be kicked into the transition period. Both the Irish government and the EU have been toughening their stance, saying they want the border issue resolved by June. On the other hand, they both want Mrs May to be in position in order to deliver an orderly Brexit. Political stability in the UK is needed by the EU and Brexit it seems is a remarkably fragile process.

    There is limited scope for parliament to change things much. While a great many Labour MPs are Remainers Mr Corbyn is not. He believes that what he wants to do in government in the UK is done more easily outside the EU. His view fits easily with Brexiteers and the DUP. The DUP stance is, I think, opportunistic and somewhat schizophrenic. It welcomes the chance to emphasise British identity but will want no hard border.

    It seems to me that Brexit is the most likely solution. It may be soft – boiled, hard – boiled or boiled to bu88ery.

  22. @Guymonde

    Thanks for that. So no big EU voter uplift then.

    Anecdote – Asking round the office today in London, no one was planning on voting, many didn’t even know there was an election tomorrow. They all voted in the GE most for Labour as an anti Brexit vote.

    Looking at the Survation tables, table 1, 22% of Tory voters have already voted, 22% of Lib Dems, but only 13% Labour. I seem to recall before the 2017 GE that Labour figure matched the Tory figure, I remember because I was surprised how many of the younger voters were using postal votes.

    So I am thinking turnout will be the decider, and it doesn’t look that good for Labour at least with what evidence I have.

  23. New Thread

    @ Richard

    Interesting thoughts. I’m sure you’re right that turn-out will be a big factor, and it could be bad news for Lab. I’d always imagined this might be their big chance to turn enthuasiatic membership into extra votes, but the distinct lack of action around this election would seem to argue against that happening. Or maybe I’m just speaking for my area. It is not surprising really that so few people know they might have a vote tomorrow.

  24. Re: the turnout, have had Labour come up the road twice so far although a lot of people may be out in the evenings. Facebookwise the only party political things i have seen are a few people going to unseat the tories meetings, and conservative adverts for kensington and chelsea. I don’t live in kensington and chelsea and since i associate k and c with grenfell i am not sure it is a message they want to be distributing widely.

    Certainly a few posters in windows (there is a Labour one in our front window :O ) but not as many as at the election.

  25. Surely ‘reshored’ means ‘reshored’.

    Doesnt say which shores.

  26. Hireton,
    “So essentially the UK Government is so divided that it is unable to agree on two options regarding one of the most critical aspects of Brexit less than a year before Brexit neither of which hardly anybody outside of Government consider to be practicable and which its negotiating counterpart has already indicated are unrealistic.”

    Well exactly. Which is all why I think they are doing it on purpose and have from the outset. Their task is to prove to leave voters that leaving is impossible.

    Sam,
    “The Guardian suggests that there was likely to be serious discussion of the hybrid and max fac ideas.”

    i’m sure the EU will consider it carefully and politely. But someone here already pointed out that whatever is put in place has to protect the trade barriers around the EU. So any alternative scheme has to go into incredible detail over any divergence between the Uk and EU in external trade, somehow make an accounting of that, and presumably make a payment to the EU where its borders are infringed. It doesnt really sound like transparently doing business, which it has to provide to fix the irish border.

    It would probably have to respect things like working conditions, government subsidies and so forth. Its all rather a package deal. People are regarding the irish border as solvable by adopting the CU, but it isnt adequate on its own. CU is simply the next logical step.

  27. RAF,
    “I fully understand that a reduction from zero presents a difficulty but I have the utmost faith that it will prove to be possible.”

    Ah no, its easy. Its just like windrush immigrants. If they cannot prove they are legal, then they are not. Anyone turning up without the right id is trying to make a vote unlawfully. I expect there will be a lot more people caught this time trying to vote when they arent allowed to.

    Interesting debate on newsnight, where they are saying the remainers in cabinet have today pointed out the PMs new plan is nonsense. Which indeed would seem to be my view too.

  28. Sam,
    “I am interested in your idea (assuming I have it right) that the PM and colleagues are negotiating a retreat from Brexit.

    I do not think you are right. It seems to me that Mrs May is seeking to protect her own position as PM while also avoiding civil war within the Conservative party.”

    That is certainly how it is normally spun.

    But the question is, does my alternative interpretation also fit the facts?

    “There is limited scope for parliament to change things much.”

    Parliament could stop Brexit tomorrow. Parliament could vote to reject all deals and have a cold turkey hard Brexit tomorrow. Parliament is currently legislating to require it has a free choice amongst all these alternatives before a final decision is made.

    “While a great many Labour MPs are Remainers Mr Corbyn is not.”

    I dont know why people say this, hes seems pretty honest and I think he gave the EU something like 7/10? Sounds very remainish to me.

  29. I’m a little surprised that the Windrush scandal has had zero impact on polling.

    Going by my friends and relatives, this is by far the current number one issue – even eclipsing Brexit and the NHS at the moment – and a lot – LOT of people are absolutely spitting nails at Theresa May.

    Having said that, my friends and relatives qare, for the most part on the left – not necessarily Labour [although many are], but, certainly on the left end of the political spectrum.

    That makes me wonder if (ok, I’m being overly simplistic here) if the general reaction of Labour / left is “[insert random string of swear words] government!!!!”, while the general reaction of tory supporters/those on the right is “Windrush? meh!”

  30. @Danny: “Parliament could stop Brexit tomorrow. Parliament could vote to reject all deals and have a cold turkey hard Brexit tomorrow. Parliament is currently legislating to require it has a free choice amongst all these alternatives before a final decision is made.”

    The votes are led by MPs who have never had a word of criticism for the EU, and strenuously avoided doing anything that support the government in holding a line against the EU.

    The only question is whether they will accept all of the EU demands until they add up to surrendering Brexit, or move directly to surrender.

  31. J1832: The only question is whether they will accept all of the EU demands until they add up to surrendering Brexit, or move directly to surrender.

    Even if that description of parliament’s collective position was anything other than nonsense, it would represent the will of the people, expressed in the MPs they elected. That is the UK system of democracy. Feel free to bemoan a democratic deficit.

  32. BBC Projected National Vote Share from Local Elections
    Con 35%
    Labour 35%
    Lib Dem 16%
    Other 18%

  33. I’m no conspiracist, but I’m very surprised I’ve not seen it reported that Labour won the popular vote in Wandsworth, outside of far-left rags such as Skwawkbox.

    CONSERVATIVES 121,295 (38.3%)
    LABOUR 123,208 (38.7%)

    Labour did OK, not great, but reporting hasn’t been bizarrely negative. A lesson in expectation management, I suppose.

1 2 3 4