Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor came out today. Topline voting intention figures were CON 41%(-2), LAB 40%(-2), LDEM 10%(+4). Fieldwork was the 20th to 24th April (that is, last weekend, just as the Windrush scandal was getting going) and changes are since last month. The ten point score for the Liberal Democrats is unusually high, the largest share they’ve recorded since the election, though the four point increase in a month is probably exaggerated by an unusually low score a month ago.

Jeremy Corbyn’s personal ratings have fallen noticably. 59% of people now say they are disatisfied with his leadership (up 7), 32% are satisifed (down 5), giving him a net rating of minus 27. This is his lowest rating since his ratings rose so dramatically during the election campaign. In comparison Theresa May’s approval rating was minus 17, the government’s minus 33. The rest of the poll had some more in depth questions on leadership qualities. May scored better than Corbyn on being patriotic (by 29 points), on being good in a crisis (by 18), being a capable leader (by 14) and having sound judgement (by 10). Jeremy Corbyn lead May on personallity (by 23 points), on honesty (by 7 points), and was far less likely to be seen as out of touch (by 25 points).

By 47% to 44% people narrowly disagreed that Theresa May had what it takes to be a good Prime Minister. In comparison, 30% think that Jeremy Corbyn has what it takes, 58% do not. Looking at some potential alternative Tory leaders, by 60% to 12% people think that Michael Gove does not and by 34% to 6% they think Gaving Williamson does not (though note the very high don’t knows). Boris Johnson – once the Tory who could reach parts others could not – has lost his magic: 72% of people think he doesn’t have what it takes to be a good Prime Minister, only 17% do. The best net score was for Ruth Davidson – 29% think she has what it takes to be a good PM, 29% do not.

The full data for the MORI poll is here.

Also out today were the tables for YouGov’s poll last week, which came out in the Times over the weekend but got rather overlooked. Topline figures there were unchanged from the previous week, CON 43%(nc), LAB 38%(nc), LDEM 8%(nc). The fieldwork was on Tuesday and Wednesday, so like MORI, before the Windrush scandal had really played out. We will have to wait for the next round of polling to see if that has had any impact. The full YouGov tables are here

149 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 41, LAB 40, LDEM 10”

1 2 3
  1. @Alienated Labour

    I don’t agree with everything you stated in that post about Tory supporters, but the party really has regained the “Na$ty Party” Crown from UKIP.

  2. It will be interesting to see how these non-moving opinion polls compare to the projected national vote share calculation arising from Thursday’s local government elections.

    Wouldn’t it be nice to get a juicy by-election too in a Tory seat with a small majority?

    Can’t one be arranged?


  3. Hmmm.

    I don’t really understand how one can look forward to a so called “national vote share calculation” based on an election result in a random selection of Local Authorities-including the Capital City ; having been a vociferous critic of any expression of political opinion short of a General Election.

  4. @JonesinBangor

    “I don’t agree with everything you stated in that post about Tory supporters, but the party really has regained the “Na$ty Party” Crown from UKIP.”

    Our old friend Alienated Labour gets a bit carried away, but I had an interesting doorstep conversation with our local Labour candidate this evening. Our ward is a pretty safe Tory one, apart from in exceptional years for Labour when it very occasionally turns red (have to go back to Blair landslide days for the last time!), but he told me that our local Tory councillor, who was quite a decent woman from memory, had been de-selected by the local Tory association. His view was that the “nasty party” was making a reappearance and some of the UKIP brigade, returning to the Tory fold, were pretty intolerant of liberal Tories. They’d ganged up on the councillor and replaced her with someone more to their liking There’s been some pretty unpleasant local Tory campaigning on social media too.

    Could be something and nothing, but it may be straws in the wind.


  5. @Crossbat

    From the previous thread.

    Great post 10.15 – keep them coming. Just watched May being interviewed and trying to wriggle out of her involvement as Home Secretary. She really is Teflon woman.

    By a mixture of being in the right place at the right time, keeping her head down and using willing sycophants to take the flak, She has managed to hang on to her job.

  6. Ipsos MORI’s algorithm for adjusting VI always seems to produce figures in the Scots sample which are significantly different from Full Scottish polls (even their own), so probably better to just use their numbers for England (which they helpfully provide) –

    Con 41% : Lab 42% : LD 11% : Grn 3% : UKIP 2% : Other 2%
    plus Undecided at 4% of all respondents (a remarkably low figure!)

  7. Oldnat

    I love the way you pop up to either declare a Tory lead as an outlier or in this case just concentrate on on section to give Labour a lead.
    Most of us just look as things being pretty even between the two and leave it at that.


    Talking to people in the U.K. I thought Labour had been given the title Nas*y party over it’s anti Semitic hard core.

  8. Meanwhile in North Britain ……

    Despite some posturing by some in SLab and SLD that the Scottish Government should have followed the Welsh example and made a deal with Westminster that severely limited devolution, both parties have now come round to supporting the Scottish Government’s stance.


    Once again, Davidson is left isolated in her position of limiting and redacting from the devolution settlement – maybe that will make her even more popular in England!

    Not, I imagine, that it will make a scrap of difference as to how Lab and LD MPs will vote on Clause 11, but it may make a difference in the Lords.

  9. Turk

    You might have missed the number of Tory councillor candidates expelled for racism, homophobia, xenophobia and other beauties.

  10. Turk

    If you imagine that I have any interest in promoting any of the English based parties, then you are out of your Texan mind!

    I do understand, as you don’t seem to, that the UK is (at present) a quasi-federal state, and that one of the polities is so overwhelmingly massive that, only when it can’t make a clear decision as to its governing party, do the other polities come into play,

    In England, Lab has a small (but statistically insignificant) lead – but that matters more than that in GB Con have a small (but statistically insignificant) lead.

    On this site, it was once normal to critique polls and their methodology, and not just to score partisan points.

    Sadly, Anthony decided to withdraw from pursuing the ideals that he created this site for.

    Some of us still try to critique polling, however,

  11. Left Liberal (fpt)

    Thanks, I didn’t know it was a used one.

    Just two points as it really doesn’t belong here. The Gigafactory is a joint venture, and the partner is rather important. The Australian one is really great – however it is, in terms of production systems it is “fabrication” which is very different from batch production or mass production. Perhaps he should produce busses.

  12. Laszlo

    You might also have missed a number of SCon and SLab councillors who weren’t expelled for “racism, homophobia, xenophobia and other beauties.”

    In the past, the SNP has also had a number of similar disreputable folk putting themselves forward for selection.

    I don’t think any party has a monopoly of virtue, but those most desperate to find candidates are always most likely to overlook these things – then rue the day when the bigots actually get elected!

  13. Colin

    I haven’t seen links to the Spiegel from you for some time, although there have been some rather interesting articles there about the future of Europe and also on Brexit.

  14. Oldnat

    No, I know these. It was merely about the hint to frame the L.P. (and as you know I don’t have an affiliation with it) for anti-semitism.

    I don’t think that you are quite correct about the cause of disreputable candidates, although it may play a role at the very last stage of selection. It is really about marketing – selling the wares. And as always, there are affiliated benefits of the product – not only this, but also that. So easy – we are for the higher wages and also against foreigners who push down the wages. We are for a social housing programme, but we are also for the right people getting the housing.

    Just came back from Glasgow on Sunday. It was far less pleasant (purely politically) than 18 months ago (but then both SNP and SLabour can tire me out).

  15. @LeftieLiberal

    “Some of what he does is reasonable and he just markets it better than others have done before (like solar roof tiles); some is an alternative approach to the same problem (like landing the reusable first stages on a ship instead of recovering them from the sea – the approach used for the shuttle boosters); ”


    Jesus. Saying that landing the first stage propulsively is just an “alternative approach” similar to letting them crash into the sea, is like saying the jet engine is just an “alternative approach” like the hot air balloon.

    The difficulty of landing a rocket propulsively like that is massive. Many thought it couldn’t be done. It’s travelling thousands of miles an hour AWAY from the launchpad, maybe a hundred miles up, and many more down range, and you have to flip it round, precisely time the burns to stop it overhearing land back on the launchpad.

    Because throttling the motor is limited, You have to time the final burn very precisely so that the rocket’s speed hits zero just as it touches the pad.

    As opposed to just letting it drop into the sea. And the gains are massive. Because the rocket is back at the pad and not damaged or corroded by sea water you can reuse it many times and have a rapid turnaround, slashing the costs of space flight.

  16. @LeftieLiberal

    Another thing that adds to the difficulty, is that given how much fuel it takes to put something into orbit, especially at higher orbits, you may well not have much fuel left for the landing. (Carrying the fuel for the landing requires even more fuel to lift and accelerate that fuel on launch).

  17. Laszlo

    “although it may play a role at the very last stage of selection.”

    The very last stage of selection only happens when there are a multiplicity of candidates to select from!

    Under FPTP, most parties can confidently select anybody who puts themselves forward in most wards – in the absolute confidence that there isn’t a hope in hell of their being elected (a tactic that went badly wrong for the SNP at Holyrood in Dunfermline in 2011 !)

    Under STV, there’s a very good chance of being elected, so the stance of SLab and SCon isn’t (I think) about pushing a particular racist line, but just that neither SLab nor SCon have it in their DNA to consider equality issues as very important. So, with few putting their names forward for selection, their beliefs aren’t closely examined.

  18. (to stop it overhearing land back on the launchpad. = to stop it overheating on re-entry and then to land back at the launchpad).

  19. Carfrew

    One quote I like (I can’t remember the source or the exact wording):

    “Getting something into space is easy, keeping it there is the tricky bit”

    As you say, the energy required to get something into orbit is tremendous, now you have to get rid of all of that energy (without dissipating it catastrophically into the ground/sea/atmosphere).

    Space is only 60 miles up, much closer than many people think.

    The gravitational effect on the space station isn’t much less than on earth, (about 90%) it’s just falling at exactly the right rate.

  20. OLDNAT

    Ipsos MORI’s algorithm for adjusting VI always seems to produce figures in the Scots sample which are significantly different from Full Scottish polls (even their own), so probably better to just use their numbers for England (which they helpfully provide) –

    Con 41% : Lab 42% : LD 11% : Grn 3% : UKIP 2% : Other 2%
    plus Undecided at 4% of all respondents (a remarkably low figure!)

    Actually you shouldn’t look just at England because MORI will have done their weighting across the whole of GB and if the Scottish figures are out (as those look to be) it means the rGB ones will skewed to compensate.

    The pre-adjustment figures from the whole sample are actually on page 6 and show undecided GB figures of 18% plus 7% WNV and 1% refused – obviously the ones for England are very similar.

    Labour actually has a 4 point lead before LTV is taken into account, which is a fairly common pattern recently. It makes the YouGov keeping its 5 point Con lead look like a bit of an outlier.

    The jump in Lib Dem support is to be expected from MORI however. It’s a telephone poll which normally helps them a bit (and hindered UKIP) and they always seem to put on a few extra points in the run up to the Local Elections (at least in non-GE years). Lib Dems always get a higher percentage in the Locals rather than nationally and presumably the effect of local campaigning will encourage some people to say they will vote for them at Westminster as well.

  21. Alan

    That orbital technology post sounds like a very good analogy for Brexit.

    A tremendous amount of energy was used by the UK to remove itself from the EU, but to remain tied to it in a fixed orbit.

    The alternative of catastrophically dissipating all that negative energy into something more productive was ignored.

  22. OldNat

    So far we’ve produced an awful lot of heat and noise but behind all the smoke we haven’t actually gone anywhere yet!

    If in a couple of years the UK sheepishly turns everything off and starts climbing back down the ladder hoping nobody noticed, I would be most amused.

  23. Roger Mexico

    “Actually you shouldn’t look just at England because MORI will have done their weighting across the whole of GB and if the Scottish figures are out (as those look to be) it means the rGB ones will skewed to compensate.”

    Yep. I know how weighting works, but the English component is no large that the skew is comparatively small.

    Naturally, the English crossbreak from a GB poll is less accurate than a Full English poll would be – but these are as rare as a pollster who understands the difference between different polities!

    I didn’t suggest that the English crossbreak was necessarily accurate (no poll is anyway) but that it might be a better set of numbers to look at, when trying to divine the auguries by examining the entrails of a mythical beast (ie a British polity).

  24. Alan

    Some of us oldies remember the pretensions of “Blue Streak” back in the 50s of last century.

    It also went nowhere, but cost a lot of money.

    I understand that it’s supporters are fond of the raddled old institution that is the UK – but it is (rather boringly) repetitive in its flights of fancy, and its consequent crashes.

  25. I’ve just been arrested by the punctuation police for dangerous use of an intrusive inverted comma, and been dragged off to the pokey.

  26. OldNat

    I’m aware of Blue Streak, through the Skybolt fiasco and finally wound up with us getting Polaris.

    It was an interesting set of politics around the US changing it’s policy around selling weapons, pretty much the UK ran a bit of a con (which the US was complicit in) with Grapple X being claimed as a fusion device.

  27. Further regarding MORI and its personal ratings, it’s worth pointing out that while Corbyn’s have indeed “fallen noticably”, that is over about seven weeks and so matches a similar fall in YouGov over a number of polls. The real question is how much his ratings would rebound in an election when the constant media attacks were counterbalanced by the more even-handed coverage the broadcasters are forced to supply.

    There might be a hint in that if you look at the qualities that voters are currently saying that Corbyn wins out over May in this MORI: honesty, personality, in touch with ordinary people, substance over style. In US elections it’s often said that these are the sort of qualities that people elect presidents for. In a campaign people will more easily change their views of political competences (because that’s what a campaign is about) than of these basic human qualities. It may explain why voters overall view of Corbyn changed so dramatically last year – a certain basic sympathy was already there.

    Some might then argue that all the Conservatives then need to do is to replace May with someone else who relates to the electorate better. What this poll shows is that there is a real problem surrounding who. As Anthony notes the current contenders don’t exactly go down well with the public. More interestingly they don’t down well with Conservative voters either. The question is whether [X] “has what it takes to be a good Prime Minister?” = so it’s not asking whether they replace May and so not upsetting Tory loyalty.
    (All voters [current Con voters] rounding not adjusted):

    May 44 – 46
    = -3 [81 – 14 = +67]

    Davidson 30 – 29 = 0 [39 – 24 = +15]

    Gove 11 – 60 = -49 [20 – 56 = -37]

    Johnson 17 -72 = -55 [26 – 62 = -35]

    Rudd 12 – 52 = -40 [21 – 45 = -24]

    Williamson 6 -34 = -28 [10 – 27 = -17]

    Those are really terrible figures for the cabinet ministers from the very people who should be supporting them. The only remotely decent showing is for Davidson and she is not only inelegible, but the fact she does worst in Scotland (-6) and best in London (+17) suggests she may benefit more from enthusiastic media coverage than actual exposure (Of course she’s yet another journalist, like Gove, Johnson and Rudd). All these candidates risk alienating the Conservative vote without attracting others.

    Rees-Mogg wasn’t asked about but other polling suggests he would do not better than the above (though with more DKs than say Gove). So despite all the plotting going on, it looks dangerous for the Conservatives to replace May at the moment.

  28. @Alan

    “As you say, the energy required to get something into orbit is tremendous, now you have to get rid of all of that energy (without dissipating it catastrophically into the ground/sea/atmosphere).”


    Yes, and that energy can create a lot of heat. It can easily be Thousands of degrees of it. Conventionally, they reduced speed by using friction with the atmosphere, which has two problems: it generates a lot of heat, and it doesn’t work for places where there is not much atmosphere.

    Dissipating that heat at best slows down reusability and increases costs – the Space shuttle had to have all those tiles checked and replaced after every flight – and at worst is a big safety risk.

    So Musk’s outfit use propulsive landing, which slows the craft down without using atmospheric friction, and works on other worlds, because Musk’s real goal is colonisation.

  29. Useful reading on how local election results play out:


    He takes the example of the 2007 locals, which was fairly crushing for the Tories, but Labour managed to win the spin war regardless. I think the roles may be reversed this time round. It’s all about expectation management, and it must be said Labour have gotten a bit carried away. I was expecting Westminster to fall about a month ago – but now, I’m not so sure.

  30. A new angle for Anthony!

    How your Spotify songs set the tone for the economy

    Tom Knowles, Economics Correspondent
    May 1 2018, 12:01am,
    The Times

    Upbeat pop by artists such as Taylor Swift could hold the key to understanding economic sentiment

    Next time you listen to a song on Spotify or play a game of World of Warcraft, be aware that central bankers may be monitoring your movements to work out when might be a good time to next raise interest rates.

    Andy Haldane, the chief economist of the Bank of England, has said that if central bankers want to really understand what is happening in the economy, they should forget market research surveys and focus on Taylor Swift downloads in the UK instead.

    Mr Haldane said that it was “devilishly difficult” to work out the mood of consumers using traditional surveys as they tended to be biased in their sampling and too framed in their responses.

    Policymakers at central banks are always trying to gauge how consumers are feeling as higher confidence tends to lead to higher spending and the ability to handle the impact of an interest rate rise or a change in regulations.”

  31. Roger,

    IMO Brown and May’s tenure as PM suffers (ed) from not having a leadership contest in that the rigour of the campaign sharpens the narrative and the scrutiny exposes weaknesses which may be dealt with at the time, rather than becoming apparent once in the job.

    My guess is that should Mrs May stand down before the GE, which is still likely, a candidate not polled would emerge who has less known baggage. Like Major they would be in office for perhaps a year to 18 months. Enough time to enjoy a honeymoon and then establish themselves as a credible PM, if up to it of course, but not long enough for negatives to become over harmful in time for the 2022 GE.

  32. It’s not just songs, but online gaming too…

    “Researchers at Claremont University, in California, look at data on music streams from Spotify to provide an indicator of people’s sentiment.

    Mr Haldane said that the results were just as good at tracking the mood of consumers as the monthly Michigan University survey, which is one of the most closely watched surveys on how confident Americans are feeling.

    The study — called The Rhythm of Markets — found that changes in the frequencies of words associated with anticipation and joy in popular songs could forecast changes in the Nasdaq stock market and the S&P 500 index.

    For example, an increase of 1 per cent in the occurrence of words associated with “anticipation” led to a 0.444 per cent drop in the Nasdaq and 0.315 per cent drop in the S&P 500.

    Online multiplayer games such as World of Warcraft already had “primitive” economies attached to them that economists were studying, Mr Haldane said. Gamers were studied to assess how people may react to sudden policy changes such as moves in interest rates or tougher regulations. “The game could serve as a test bed for policy action, a large-scale dynamic, digital focus group,” Mr Haldane said.”

  33. Regarding the above, I’m listening to Haitus Kaiyote at the moment if that helps any. (But on Deezer, not Spotify…)


  34. Carfrew: call me a cynic, but if people are monitoring your behaviour to determine fiscal policy, there’s probably also some Chinese-style social credit assessment going on.

  35. RM
    Thanks as always for trying to introduce some polling discussion. The figures for Boris, in particular, are pretty shocking, if May appointed him to draw attention to his failings it looks like the work is done.

    The question which leaps out at me is why Williamson is prompted for? I’m as big a follower of political news as a workmate is of Leicester City, but I wouldn’t be able to identify him from a photo* or identify a single thing he’s done, which would land me in DK heaven also.

    JRM, Javid, even before his promotion, or even Hunt J of Today programme fame and currently darling of the Graun for reasons I struggle to fathom, seem more probable candidates, and since Tory membership is now reported to be made up entirely of Sir Henry Rawlinson’s dinner party guests and those who haven’t worked out how to cancel a direct debit yet, these are more likely to rise like the skin on custard than Williamson, or even our Ruth, who appears to be popular solely because the party she joined solely because she thought they would never have any possibility of taking power has got there by happy accident, and they needed someone vaguely human to take charge. She still looks like she can’t quite believe it.

    * This is probably because I stopped watching TV about 35 years ago, and take most of my news from the radio or (now) online. I realised about a year into John Major’s pm-ship on seeing a picture of him on the front of a newspaper when I happened to be in a newsagent that until that moment I’d had no idea of what he looked like.

  36. @Polltroll

    Could be, but on the bright side, it’s a chance to get the survey peeps to listen to some new music.

  37. LASZLO

    I read them often-but don’t always feel moved to share with the Europhiles on UKPR :-)

  38. The un-elected Lords continues to defy the will of the people. The sooner we get rid of that chamber the better.

    So another two polls showing a Tory lead. Of the last 15 polls,10 have been Tory leads, 3 have been tied and 2 Labour leads. The effect is well illustrated on the Wilki election page where the graph shows a clear Tory lead for some time now. It would seem the Tory national lead is about 2%

    Having said that i still expect the Tories to lose seats especially in London and the LibDems to do well. The locals are an easy way to show displeasure with the government, but are not a good reflection of what might happen in a GE as AW frequently tells us.

    We shall see on Friday.

  39. ToH
    There was an attempt yesterday by Oldnat to suggest that the Ipsos Mori organisation was only achieving a slight Tory lead by buggering about with the raw data, in a similar manner to which they, and others did before last June’s GE. RM took issue with ON over detail, but did not disagree fundamentally.
    I think they might be on to something.
    Thursday will give us real votes to compare and contrast to opinion polls, a bit like finding a friendly rock with one’s foot whilst doing a bit of sea swimming.

  40. Not posted recently as I do not want to be drawn into the debates which have become unpleasant in tone at times.

    There is little doubt that the polls have changed over the last few months from a small Lab lead to a small Con lead. There are enough polls showing that for margin of error not to be a factor. The only other slight change is that the Lib Dems are getting more figures towards the top of their range (8-10) and fewer towards the lower end (5-6). Unless there is something unexpectedly dramatic I do not expect much on the national situation from Thursday because of the lower turn-out..

  41. COLIN

    Sacrilege – probably ghost written by one of those nasty blairites. [Yuk…]

    Actually, it doesn’t much matter either way to me, as I have nowhere else to go when it comes down to actually voting and I don’t really see that situation changing in the near future. Especially given the system we have in this country which just forces you to vote against other parties most of the time, rather than for one that you’re totally in tune with.

  42. https://www.rt.com/uk/425343-tory-suspensions-council-elections/
    I wonder how many of these there are?

  43. @RJW
    I could add one locally
    Some – there were some in the Owen Smith leadership campaign. However, Momentum round here (I’m not a member but go to some of their meetings) is not a particularly youthful organisation. All ages, but at least as many in their 60s/70s as teen/twenties, and not necessarily all that left wing – mainstream Old Labour who have felt disenfranchised during Blair/Brown. Theses older ones are not Ooh Jeremy Corbyn as much as Yuk David Miliband/Chuka Umunna/Liz Kendall

  44. @RJW
    I could add one locally
    Some – there were some in the Owen Smith leadership campaign. However, Momentum round here (I’m not a member but go to some of their meetings) is not a particularly youthful organisation. All ages, but at least as many in their 60s/70s as teen/twenties, and not necessarily all that left wing – mainstream Old Labour who have felt disenfranchised during Blair/Brown. Theses older ones are not Ooh Jeremy Corbyn as much as Yuk David Miliband/Chuka Umunna/Liz Kendall

  45. I don’t think many voters are directly influenced by economic news, like the near-disappearance of economic growth in Q1, or today’s poor manufacturing PMI figures and slump in consumer borrowing (which presages a drop in consumer spending, impacting growth).

    But I think that when filtered through media commentary, a tone of economic despondency can develop and influence VI. I suspect we’ll see this reflected in measures of optimism, and possibly attitudes to brexit, if the economic news continues to be downbeat, as seems likely on current trends.

    OTOH, parts of the media may work hard to maintain optimism, so the plates may remain aloft for a while before they come crashing down.

    I wonder how significant the loss of the Express and the Star as reliably gung-ho brexiteers, following the Trinity Mirror takeover, will be? (While they remain in principle rightwing and populist, so as not to scare off their readerships, the rhetoric seems notably toned down).

  46. TOH

    If the HoC doesn’t do exactly what you want them to do, should we get rid of that chamber as well?

    Perhaps we can find you a really big hat and let you run things. That sounds a much more sensible system.

  47. “I wonder how many of these there are ?”


    What, people who voted Corbyn in the leadership election but don’t appear to have voted Labour? There’s quite a few Tories who claim to have done that!

  48. @Alan

    Absolutely. An ermine clad cesspit of patronage.

  49. Has this one been posted yet?

    Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 42% (-)
    LAB: 39% (-2)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    UKIP: 4% (-)
    GRN: 3% (-)

    via @ICMResearch, 27 – 29 Apr

    Certainly seems to be following the trend. It seems that the Torys just about have their heads in front at the moment. I agree with comments above, it’s been a slow but definite trend over the last few months, but anything could still happen from here.

1 2 3