The latest YouGov poll for the Times has topline figures of CON 43%(+3), LAB 38%(-2), LDEM 8%(-1). The five point Conservative lead is the largest YouGov have shown since the general election.

The fieldwork was at the start of the week, so it is possible that this reflects a bump in government support from the Syria bombing – certainly “security and defence” has risen significantly on the question of what the most important issues facing the country are, up 5 points to 27%, the highest since July last year. While the bombing itself was not popular, polls did still find that people trusted Theresa May more to handle it than they did Jeremy Corbyn, so it’s plausible that an increase in the salience of security could boost the Tories. On the other hand, the changes are within the margin of error, so the increased lead may very well represent no more than normal random variation. Even if it is the impact of Syria and the lead is down to security increasing in salience, it will probably fade away once the political agenda moves onto something else.

It’s also worth noting that the fieldwork was before the row over the government’s handling of the immigration status of the Windrush generation so won’t take into account any impact from that (personally I suspect neither Syria nor the Windrush row will make any long term difference – voting intention seems to be very steady around neck-and-neck).

Full tabs for the poll are here.


610 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 43, LAB 38, LDEM 8”

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  1. @GARJ “”I think that the antisemitism issue in Labour is real, but evidently being played up for political gain by both Tories and more centrist Labour MPs””.

    I agree.

    And the Tory far-Right press is pushing Labour`s problems on this small-scale issue, in terms of the % of the UK population affected, to extremes.

    The DTel web front page has 14 stories with Corbyn and anti-Semitism the most prominent.

    But nothing about the mess that Amber Rudd is in with her foolish covering-up of what she knew on the widespread impact of the Home Office`s hostile environment for foreigners both legally and illegally in the UK.

    It`s the too-common story that hiding from bad events, and shifting blame on to others – previous governments, civil servants – digs a minister into a deeper hole. Surely a competent minister should have been aware of warnings given to the Home Office years ago on the impact of the 2014 Act and its subsequent tightening.

  2. Colin

    Couldn’t agree more you only have to read some of the posts on here to realise how some Labour supporters are in deep denial concerning comrade Corbyn’s anti Semitic tendencies .
    The problem the left has it can only accuse others of racism it never identifies it within there own ranks even when its plain to see.

  3. Yep I’m in denial and Corbyn hates Jews.

    Basically that is the whole Tory election campaign coming up.

  4. @ ALEC – “suggesting that just because we have a goods deficit, we would see more production move to the UK post Brexit.”

    ????

    Not at all. Although a freely floating currency will help we have to fight with our gloves off (just like most other countries do) in order to reshore some manufacturing and increase our exports and that needs a far more energetic response from HMG.

    As for protectionism, it is IMHO all about reciprocity and fair trade. I don’t consider the EU to operate an internal system of fair trade and hence happy to slap 10% on German car imports if they don’t want a fair new EU-UK relationship. As you should know I’m not a UFT, Minford fan.

    As for converging then fine if I’m converging to your position of UK needing to leave the EU (in full) and fight to reshore business and increase exports in order to rebalance our current account deficit then yes, your right (as always) and thank you for educating me on such an obvious approach. Let’s now both hope HMG has the energy to ensure we do fully leave and then pursue a more aggressive policy of reshoring some manufacturing and expanding exports because if they c0ck it up then we get a Corbyn govt!

  5. TURK

    I think they consider the accusation that the” Labour Party” has a big problem with anti-semitism & by reference to what they know of Labour MPs , and their own CLPs , conclude that the accusation is daft.

    But my impression is they are looking in the wrong place.

    All those Jewish MPs in the HoC debate were reading quotes from the Social Media feeds. The abuse John Man’s family received was online.The help they were getting from Police & other groups was in identifying & pursuing on-line identities.

    Corbyn’s rise to Leader has manifestly spawned & not ( as yet) discouraged a small army of very very nasty people who say they speak on JC’s behalf & use the Social Media fora which Corbyn’s Project has deliberately set out to encourage as a vehicle for Power ToThe People outside Westminster.

    It has turned into a Pandora’s Box.

  6. @ LASZLO – gassing Jews in concentration camps sets the bar pretty low (at least for non-LAB folks) and IMHO it ceased being Nazi Germany and became the Nazi Empire when they invaded the rest of Czechoslovakia in Mar’39 (happy to concede others might pick a different time or event – go with Poland invasion if you prefer).
    Note I clearly said British Empire made mistakes.
    Yes, Bretton Woods of a system that was past its sell-by date a good example – thank you!
    You’ll note I make extensive use of IMHO! I appreciate you have a different opinion.
    As for current example of Hungary and Poland within EU – seriously!?!?

  7. Well it`s plain to see Turk`s low standards of English (5 mistakes in 4 lines) and low standards of observation.

    “The Left” has been shouting about anti-Semitism in Labour ranks for months, Maybe Turk has his own US definition of “The Left”.

  8. Or that’s your delusion.

  9. TrevorW
    Are you implying that ‘Labour folk’ are or would have been in favour of gassing Jews in concentration camps?

  10. Some good news this week about voluntary effort in wildlife recording, and what has been happening to the British flora since 2000.

    An army of volunteers, well c. 500 very active ones and thousands of folk chipping in, have made 15 million plant records since 2000 that will result in a new Britain & Ireland Plant Atlas when recording ends in December 2019.

    Many aliens have arrived here, or spread, since the previous Atlas up to 2000, and 400 more aliens will get distribution maps in the next atlas than in the 2000 one.

    Obviously a few of these aliens are a right nuisance, but many of them bring benefits such as a source of nectar for our suffering bees.

    I can see parallels here with the coming of foreigners to Britain.

  11. davwel

    “Obviously a few of these aliens are a right nuisance”

    That reads like an understatement from the way they’re depicted in films.

    [Actually your post is very heart-warming.]

  12. “Corbyn, who says, for example, that “being in the single market means you have to be in the EU”. The leader of the Labour Party, possibly – probably – a future prime minister has clearly never heard of Norway.”

    If we’re going to quibble I’d argue it’s Mr Johns who has clearly never heard of the EEA.

    Corbyn has stopped saying what was obviously a bit of legal pedantry Starmer fed him, perhaps as he never quite seemed to get the point himself, perhaps because whatever sleight of hand Labour were intending to cover by it is no longer on its agenda. But it was accurate legal pedantry nonetheless.

    Norway is in the EEA. For practical purposes this is functionally equivalent to being in the EU’s single market in many (though by no means all) respects. In the loose language of UK, and evidently Irish, political comment, the terms are sometimes used interchangeably and the distinction not always made. But it’s there. Different Treaties, different organisations, different memberships. Not the same.

  13. @Trevor W

    “Obviously the building of the US, with the near extermination of the native population and ongoing conquests into Mexico (1840s) wasn’t overly peaceful.
    Also note California has a separation issue…”

    ———–

    Yes, I wasn’t arguing that imperialism and conquering other nations was inevitably peaceful!

    I was on about countries or indeed states agreeing to a union. Or maybe settling for one after the odd spat.

    There may be separation issues, but the key thing is, are there scraps over it? The issue is whether unions on balance keep the peace?

    And if not, is it because of some military repression – e.g. Soviets – or instead folk just not thinking it’s worth warring over the union, because on balance it’s not worth scrapping over.

  14. EU nationals might expect the same treatment as the Windrush generation? Will the Home Office, politicians and press change?

    “The rise of anti-immigration feeling in political and popular culture can be understood as part of a sharpening of the divide between those seen as belonging and those seen as not belonging. The vicious attacks on immigration from countries of the former communist bloc that accompanied EU expansion in 2004 created the impression of Bulgarian or Romanian criminals swindling British benefits. Unfortunately, this evil stereotype appeared to gain huge purchase in the referendum discussions, and is one of the most powerful symbols of the EU-27 presence in the UK today.

    Any positive resolution to the ‘Windrush Generation’ crisis will be as much a result of the outcry that such obviously ‘British’ people have been so ill-treated as of the purely legal rights and wrongs of the case. The ill-treatment that EU citizens have already been subjected to has not been treated in the same way by the media and the public, and neither will the ill-treatment that appears almost certain to come. EU citizens will not have arguments about ‘Britishness’ on their side. Some may have high-profile, or socially ‘useful’ jobs, and friends and colleagues able to publicise their plight, and be able to make utilitarian arguments about their contribution to British life. Others will not, and in the current climate, I fear these voiceless people will be all too easily pushed around by an incompetent, antagonistic state.”

  15. “A small army of very very nasty people who say they speak on JC’s behalf”

    ——-

    There just might be a bit of a difference between some random folk who “say” they speak on Corbyn’s behalf, but aren’t actually appointed by Corbyn, and politicians who actually implement flawed immigration policy.

  16. How long before Rudd resigns?

  17. COLIN @ BZ

    As SOMERJOHN pointed out to you, armed conflict between member states hasn’t happened within the EU to date and even the conflict which started before the UK or RoI were members of the EEC and occurred mainly in NI was eventually stopped with the Belfast Agreement at least in part thanks to the underwriting of it by the rest of the EU.

    The imposition of centrally administered Monetary, Fiscal & Political Union on Sovereign States you mention has not happened but may well be discussed if the UK does leave the EU, whereas of course it would not should the Westminster parliament decide to remain and threaten to veto such proposals. Personally, I would be delighted to see some moves towards proper democracy rather than the decrepit ersatz version the UK has thanks to an unreformed HoL and the plurality voting system.

  18. @Trevor Warne – “@ ALEC – “suggesting that just because we have a goods deficit, we would see more production move to the UK post Brexit.”

    ????”

    Well that was the implication of your earlier post, which is why I asked the question. If you tell people that post Brexit, manufacturers will move production into the UK because we’ve got a huge trade deficit with the EU, this is the conclusion people will draw.

    Essentially I think you are still floundering regarding any real justification for Brexit. Nothing you have said you would like to see can’t be done if we remain, so your entire policy prognsis is really divorced from Brexit – we could do it whatever our relationship with the EU, and you basically admit as much.

    In or out of the UK, future UK governments may or may not pursue helpful policies in this regard. History suggests they won’t, but we can at least hope. Apart from this, there remain two areas where I think you are profoundly mistaken.

    Firstly, I really don’t think you understand the implications of non tariff barriers between UK and the EU post Brexit. I’m afraid I can’t locate the link we discussed yesterday (far too much trawling through posts for that I’m afraid) but it’s been very apparent for a very long time that the single market carries many benefits for exporters that will be lost when we leave it.

    The second area I believe you are mistaken in is your belief in the ‘kick up the @rse’ effect of Brexit. We’ve just been through the deepest recession for over 80 years, and the worse run of earnings stagnation for a century and a half, resulting in the lagest peace time deficit ever. This was the kick up the @rse to end all kicks up the @rse, and what did the government do?

    No – if we had a government that was capable of pursuing an aggressive reshoring and pro manufacturing policy, I rather think they would have already done this. Brexit will bring increase trade barriers and plenty of negatives, but it won’t spur this government into suddenly doing all the right things.

  19. CARFREW

    Couldn’t agree more. It is frustrating though because this God awful Government is getting away with it over Windrush. May should be finished by this but it will be Rudd who takes the hit.

  20. BBZZ
    “armed conflict between member states hasn’t happened within the EU to date”
    I think two factors militating against such conflicts have been neglected.
    1. for much of the period since WW2 a very real threat was perceived of attack by USSR. This was held at bay by the NATO Alliance, which in practice meant by the strength and presence in Europe of the armed forces of the USA. It is possible that such a threat was not real, but it was considered so, and so reduced the likelihood of conflict between smaller European states in the face of a common enemy.
    2. Full-scale war between nations is very expensive. Past European wars needed several years of preparation, during which time the USA would have certainly leaned on any two of its allies preparing to fight each other.

  21. ToH

    “Actually I am not sure I do want free trade with Europe to continue”.

    That puts you in a select group of 12% of Leavers (according to NatCen).

    Being in a very small minority doesn’t make your opinion wrong, of course. But, on a polling site, it’s a useful observation that your views do not have much resonance with the wider electorate.

  22. DAVWEL, NICKP

    There’s not much point in complaining about the other side trying to take advantage of Labour’s antisemitism woes, it’s to be expected. Labour sticks the boot in whenever the government is having problems, and social media is awash with fake news and exaggerations about evil Tories. it’s all part of how politics works, like it or not.

    The reason the story has legs is because the Labour Party is making a right mess of its response. Corbyn will say that he deplores racism in all its forms, but then he fails to follow it up with action. His allies will do something like block disciplinary procedures against someone who committed a pretty clearly antisemitic act, claim that the problems are a smear (the standard Corbynite reaction to any criticism, no matter how valid), or even write an article threatening reprisals (well done Len). Corbyn then fails to punish them, or even to criticise them for this behaviour, and so the story runs and runs. If he had taken decisive action at an earlier stage it would have gone away a long time ago.

  23. @Barbarazero:

    “As SOMERJOHN pointed out to you, armed conflict between member states hasn’t happened within the EU to date…”

    I cannot remember where I read it, but apparently the closest thing to an iron rule of diplomacy is that democracies never fight democracies. It simply does not happen. You cannot say it would never happen, but unless the EU is responsible for the maintenance of democracy in the member states – an extravagant claim in western Europe certainly – the EU is not responsible for peace in Europe.

    “The imposition of centrally administered Monetary, Fiscal & Political Union on Sovereign States you mention has not happened but may well be discussed if the UK does leave the EU, whereas of course it would not should the Westminster parliament decide to remain and threaten to veto such proposals.”

    I firmly believe that the UK will stay in the EU. But it will because we had been taught who was boss – something that most of our MPs will heartily welcome.

    But where the EU is concerned, we shall be like the Habsburgs after the Battle of Sadowa. We would not be going back with head held high, but with a deep knowledge on all sides that we rolled over at every possible opportunity in the negotiations. The EU’s lack of need for us will be an established political fact; and it will be clear that our politicians see the UK as utterly dependent on the EU.

    So our ability to act as a Eurosceptic influence will be shot to pieces, even if the EU is terribly magnanimous and does not ask for any special conditions of re-entry.

    And that is before we speculate on what is going on in terms of British politics. Would a Starmer-Clarke-Cable-Sturgeon grand coalition do anything other than try to deepen the UK’s integration into Europe?

  24. MikeP
    I’m usually wrong when it comes to short term political predicting, but I don’t think Rudd’s going anywhere over this. I’ve never been able to stand her previously, but she’s either a much better actor than I’d have expected or she really is absolutely spitting tacks about it.

    At the moment it looks like she’s containing it, but if she does get forced out I wouldn’t put it past her to use this to dump the credit for the whole steaming mess all over Mrs May’s fancy footwear and leather trousers and launch her leadership campaign on the back of it. I thought it telling that the media seemed uncertain during the weekly bunfight whose head Corbyn had called for. And placed it firmly back in the news just as it seemed to be so last week.

    After all the endless speculation about Brexit being the glue which keeps our Nell clinging endlessly to the leadership it would be enjoyably ironic indeed if she were brought down as a result of her time hiding out at the home office.

  25. I think those scoffing at the argument that the absence of wars is a good feature of the EU and it’s forerunners should be a little careful. While I take on board @Dave’s point about other geopolitical factors mitigating against war between major EU nations, and I think it’s also worth pointing out that there are fewer wars globally, probably because of closer economic integration, two points come to mind.

    Firstly, the basic point – there has never before in all of recorded human history been a period of seventy years without a major war between major European powers. Even taking the above points into consideration, that is highly significant. The EU cannot take all of the credit for this, but equally, it shouldn’t be given none of the credit either.

    Secondly, it’s not just about the absence of war – European peace since the Treaty of Rome has been about far, far more than that. The EU has enabled the removal of so many cultural and social barriers, and we now have a position where countries that have been suspicious enemies for centuries are working closely together across a vast swathe of endeavours for the common good.

    If you were to take a European from any past age and show them this, they would be truly astonished, and the fact that we now take this for granted is even more astonishing in a historical context.

  26. @Joseph1832 – “…but unless the EU is responsible for the maintenance of democracy in the member states – an extravagant claim in western Europe certainly – the EU is not responsible for peace in Europe.”

    Again, I think you fail to understand what the EU is and what it requires of it’s members. The EU isn’t directly responsible for democracy in member states, but it does set out the terms required for states to join, and many states do want to join.

    Spain’s fledgling democracy wasn’t a given in the 1980’s, with an attempted coup in 1982, but it is now pretty solid after joining the EU and developing as a modern democratic state. Between 1909 and 1974, Greece suffered 17 coups or attempted coups in 65 years – but in the years since joining the EU in 1981 there have been none.

    The EU has acted to encourage and stabilize democracies and the rule of legal rights, and has exerted a huge indirect influence on promoting democracy within Europe, which can’t be lightly dismissed.

  27. THE OTHER HOWARD @ BZ

    When the Battle of Britain was being fought mainly in the air, Britain was standing alone against Germany and Italy. Poland had been knocked out of the war already, as had France, the low countries and Norway. The USA duid not enter the war until 7th December 1941, I was surprised you didn’t realise that.

    You are, of course, entitled to your opinion but you don’t seem to have read my posts this afternoon very carefully.

    Britain was not standing alone during the Battle of Britain, even if you exclude the then empire, because many aircrew escaped from the continent and participated in the battle, as well as seven US plus nine from the Irish Free State. Of continentals, there were 141 Poles, 86 Czechs, 29 Belgians and 13 French pilots who fought in the RAF during the Battle of Britain. See here.

    I am well aware that the US did not declare war on Germany & Italy until 11 December 1941 – just after having had war declared against the US by both those nations. Less well known, perhaps, is the fact that the US volunteers were risking their US citizenship as well as their lives, but that threat from their own government was withdrawn later in the war.

  28. Joseph 1832

    “I cannot remember where I read it, but apparently the closest thing to an iron rule of diplomacy is that democracies never fight democracies”

    I suspect that’s one of these “truisms” which only applied in the post WWII 20th century, when what are seen in the West as “democracies” were largely in alliance with each other (or neutral).

    Prior to that the democracies of France and the UK were at war with the democracies of Italy and Germany in WWI.

    Even in modern times, the democracy of Slovenia and that of Serb dominated Yugoslavia were at war.

    The 4th India-Pakistan War was in 1999.

  29. Understandably, given the numerical preponderance of the English polity, GB polls and discussion here inevitably concentrate on Brexit as it applies to English views.

    A useful article here from SCER – Kirsty Hughes and Katy Hayward explore how Brexit is changing the devolution settlement with regard to the two Remain voting polities in the UK.

    https://www.scer.scot/database/ident-6316

  30. The UK Government has an interesting concept of “consent”.

    Their amendments to the Withdrawal Bill describe what is defined as “consent” in an LCM in the devolved administrations –

    (a) Agreeing with a motion to consent

    (b) Deciding not to a agree a motion to consent

    (c) Deciding to agree a motion to refuse consent.

    That’s what might be described as “statutory rape”!

  31. DAVE @ BZ

    Fair comment, especially re the US presence locally, at least until the demise of the USSR. But subsequent events such as Schengen have in many places taken over. I’m not sure that US might would have had much influence in regional issues such as the cross-border agreements/councils set up on the Spanish/Portuguese and Spanish/French borders.

    My short moniker is BZ, by the way. COLIN seems to prefer an extra B for reasons I can’t fathom.

  32. JOSEPH1832

    I firmly believe that the UK will stay in the EU. But it will because we had been taught who was boss – something that most of our MPs will heartily welcome.

    Time will tell, of course, but I hope you’re right. I’d personally accept a Norwegian-style arrangement albeit somewhat miffed at paying the price of BoJo’s dissembling. I do think that remaining in the EU is more sensible to avoid having to set up pale copies of the myriad agencies we would otherwise have to create as well as all the customs infrastucture necessary if we go it alone.

    Please use BZ if you don’t have copy and paste.

  33. Oldnat
    Italy was on the same side as U.K. and France in the Great War.

  34. RJW

    Correct – but my error doesn’t invalidate the point that democracies did make war on each other.

  35. Meanwhile, the list of donors to Scotland in Union is providing much entertainment (except to the donors!

    There are some odd entries like “Broonwood Hall School” (which doesn’t appear to exist).

    Did SiU make it up, or possibly make a typo?

    Surely it must be the first.

    Otherwise a private prep school in Wandsworth may have given £5k to a political organisation in Scotland, instead of spending it on teaching the children. That would be unbelievable.

  36. The Other Howard,
    “When the Battle of Britain was being fought mainly in the air, Britain was standing alone against Germany and Italy”

    So why is it this time Britain is running away from Europe?

    ” I certainly remember seeing a V1 just before it blew up a shop at the top of our road killing two.”

    Be funny if you were one of the witnesses who saw my great grandfather watching one fall, which killed him.

    Trevor Warne,
    “I will happily admit HMG making a mess of Brexit and doing nowhere near enough for Project After.”

    But will you admit they are making a good job of getting the best deal possible? Its just that there isnt any outcome anyone thinks is good? (both sides being aware the best outcome for UK is membership?)

    “we need to either make more “stuff” in UK (reduce imports) or increase exports (ideally both). Sure we might have been able to do some of that within EU but we didn’t. Brexit for me is as much about kicking UK up the 4rse”

    So you belong to the school of medicine where if an athlete is getting arthritis, you solve his problems by chopping off his feet and telling him he has a better chance in the paralympics? Your cure is to destroy the UK economy and then hope something turns up.

    ” I think UK worker with flexible labour market and low tax regime can produce goods as well as any other developed nation”

    You mean, no import tariffs, so Germany, Poland and China can all sell us goods at their cost price? Currently we are losing manufacturing to Poland (etc) within the EU which is a very level market. China is held at bay by constructive trade barriers, quotas and tariffs, which presumably you mean to dismantle. Your recipe to save the day is wage cuts for workers, and tax cuts on industry implying diminishing state services for those workers also?

    So basically, your route to salvation outside the EU is for most people to be poorer? You accept the economic models are rubbish, because you are saying we survive by most who voted for Brexit becoming significantly poorer, far more so than any of the models suggest? You plan to redistribute the national wealth away from voters on top of the total amount of GDP falling?

    None of the models allows for wage cuts as the reason we get poorer. You are in fact agreeing my other point, that the problem with Brexit would be flight of industry from the UK. You say we would have to take drastic steps to halt this by imposing major cuts in our living standards.

    ” Generally if you sell Gizmos in UK you should be incentivised to make those Gizmos in UK”

    You mean, create a tariff, quota and regulatory wall around the UK to keep out imports? Something like the EU does? Or maybe use new freedoms for government to subsidise UK based industry (oops, thats breaks WTO rules)?

    ” To avoid the cheap labour threat of E.Europe and China I’m happy with modest protectionism”

    So you accept there will be no new trade agreements boosting trade, because in fact you want to put up more barriers? Its not as if any other nation will allow us better access to their markets after we tell them we will give them less! Its far more likely we will end up giving them better access than now and us getting less!

    And talking about trying to rely on high end goods, you do know the UK just contracted with France and China to build us nuclear reactors, because we no longer have the technology or industrial base to do it ourselves?

    “CON’s fate is tied to making a success of Brexit)”

    we agree on that at least. And that is why I argue, they are doing everything they can to stop Brexit, yet still survive after offending their pro Brexit voter base.

  37. All I can say is, I’m kind of glad there aren’t any elections where I live next week. I can’t say I’d enjoy choosing (though I guess there’s enough Lib Dem strength locally to justify a cop-out vote for them).

  38. OLDNAT

    I had already found the link you put up. It is an excellent analysis with a brief, accurate conclusion.

    “Overall, the two Remain-voting areas of the UK have already experienced strong impacts from Brexit. The process has upset existing political dynamics both within Northern Ireland and Scotland and between them and London – and it has deepened political divisions in both. The centralising tendencies in evidence from Westminster seem unlikely to be the best way of managing the political dynamics and tensions exacerbated by Brexit in both NI and Scotland. Less than a year from the UK’s withdrawal from the EU, the fallout of Brexit for these Remain-voting areas seems to be even more profound and unpredictable than first imagined. Brexit, it is clear, means far more than just Brexit for both Scotland and Northern Ireland.”

    https://www.scer.scot/database/ident-6308

  39. @COLIN

    regarding Merkel and Macrons view of the UK:

    I think the real problem for the UK is that they talked one way to the EU and another to the Uk electorate. when you are inside the tent I suppose that becomes acceptable because your inside the tent the problem is that the UK is now outside the tent and many in the EU that have an interest point to the UK cherry picking the good bits and portraying them as purely domestic policy and the ‘bad’ bits as EU policy.

    As I pointed out to previously it has alway been sold that way that is why we have stories of straight bananas and the like that never seem to occur in the other EU countries. Even people whom are positive about the EU seem to be unsure what the hell it does, how it works and why which is why I think we misunderstand the whole issue.

    merkel domestic problem has always been how to make a mercantile country pay for those that are not so mercantile the UK problem (Fiscal transfers) the UK problem is that they primarily are even worse than the Germans with regards fiscal transfers hell we are happy to have a NHS falling apart as long as we don’t pay much tax and are pretty much since the thatcherite era been steeped in the selfish gene of thinking (just thinking of the polls regarding our wanting access to health in the EU but wanting to deny it to EU citizens)

    Essentially we believe we are exceptional and believe that what we feel is fair (see the dichotomy of the health issue) and thus do not understand people reticence at our viewpoint and values

    The CFP is another issue that show our skewed perspective. We believe foreigner are stealing our fish when we sold our quotas to the same foreigners if you are that foreigner that bought the quota you wonder what the hell are the brits on about.

    AS you described yourself as a person that does not interact with europeans on a daily basis I fear that you have misunderstood their view of us and the fact they have in the main moved on from us. Is it in there interest to have a good relationship? yes of course it is but I think they believe they have indulged the UK to a point whereby the situation becomes rather like the one that the many in the UK seemed to suggest it should have been “strictly business” and as such that means a reset for both sides

    I have constantly pointed out that the problem the UK electorate has about the EU is a lack of understanding of the nuances of the council of ministers. You have TREVOR WARNE blaming the germans for example for Greek Debt when in fact mostly it was countries like Finland that wanted the Greeks kicked out of the euro and debt to be paid by any means. You have yourself think that Merkel is more inclined to give the UK a better deal because of German industrial and manufacturing, this is a country that basically absorbed the eastern part of the country at great cost as it was deemed in their political interest. The EU success in in germany political interest I personally believe it is not and that if one country can survive outside the EU successfully it would be Germany but their view is that being part of the EU is essential to their status in the world, what the hell the Uk wants comes down the list. As for France this basically changes the dynamic of the EU it gives them much more power in the council.

    In the end I voted remain because for one I felt that we were blaming the EU for problems we created domestically and essentially put an EU stamp of disapproval on it we have been rather disingenuous about our problems and our solutions and the point is that when you are sitting on the other side of a negotiating table and know this it puts the UK in a weak position.

    I will point to Boris telegraph article (when he was Mayor of London) which basically argued that leaving the EU solved nothing of the problems that we have and in my view exposes our selfish gene to a level that may be unpalatable for view of see ourselves as fair and reasonable people.

    I said to you that what will happen would be that we would end up with a deal that will be far from the what was initially thought as acceptable and that you took exception to the fact that you would accept such a deal however I see that slowly reality is taking care of itself.

  40. Hireton

    “….writes a European ( although one very ignorant of the last 1000 years of history).”

    Really, If you think that based on my comment then I would suggest it is you who is very ignorant of the last 1000 years of history.

  41. PTRP

    Thank you for that lengthy repetition of your views.

    re @”You have yourself think that Merkel is more inclined to give the UK a better deal because of German industrial and manufacturing,”

    I don’t think that-you may be confused by my posting the views of a Norwegian Political scientist yesterday.

  42. Hireton

    I should have added of course that i do not consider myself European, I am British an island off the mainland of Europe. Geographically i might be classed as European, in spirit i am not at all.

  43. OLDNAT

    “Being in a very small minority doesn’t make your opinion wrong, of course. But, on a polling site, it’s a useful observation that your views do not have much resonance with the wider electorate.”

    That has often been the case with views I hold. It has never bothered me as I am sure it would not bother you, and as you say it does not make my views wrong.

  44. Danny

    “So why is it this time Britain is running away from Europe?”

    We are not running away from Europe, we are doing what is in the best interest of the UK, in 1940 it was defeating AH, in 2019 it is leaving the EU to prosper outside it and to regain our sovereignty.

  45. Hireton, should have read …. I am British and live in an island………..

  46. BZ

    If you think the UK was not standing alone against Germany and Italy immediately after the fall of France then all I can say is you have a very odd view of history. Of course I am aware of the Poles and others who fought in the battle of Britain, from memory it was a Polish squadron that shot down the largest number of Germans, but that does not make my comment any the less valid. The Empire could have done very little if Britain had been invaded in 1940.

  47. Good to see the DUP are prepared to bring the Government down if it agreed to NI remaining in the customs Union to resolve the border issue. Fortunately May has made it clear yet again that we are leaving the customs union.

    The likelyhood of us leaving the EU without a deal is increased IMO.

  48. @Danny – re your 6.29am post to @TW;

    This is very much in the vein that I was posting last night. I think we’re finally teasing out the inconsistencies and threadbare nature of @TW’s prescription regarding Brexit. It all depends on the choices we make, it is therefore absolutely no different to a life within the EU, other than a sprinkle of magical thinking and a few outright contradictions.

  49. So Operation Vaken was named after a Nazi call for Germany to awake! awake!

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/apr/26/theresa-may-go-home-vans-operation-vaken-ukip

    And Labour are the racists?

    Ha ha ha

  50. There seems little chance of the nakedly ambitious Rudd (or May, for that matter) resigning over the hostile environment policy. Like Boris, they would only ever resign if they smelt political advantage.

    Nothing wrong with being ambitious, but would like to see some semblance of personal responsibility or core values that don’t relate to self or party.

    After Hunt’s Minister for Murdoch scandal and him blaming his SPaD, it is clear that the age of resignations is gone.

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