The latest YouGov poll for the Times has topline figures of CON 43%(+3), LAB 38%(-2), LDEM 8%(-1). The five point Conservative lead is the largest YouGov have shown since the general election.

The fieldwork was at the start of the week, so it is possible that this reflects a bump in government support from the Syria bombing – certainly “security and defence” has risen significantly on the question of what the most important issues facing the country are, up 5 points to 27%, the highest since July last year. While the bombing itself was not popular, polls did still find that people trusted Theresa May more to handle it than they did Jeremy Corbyn, so it’s plausible that an increase in the salience of security could boost the Tories. On the other hand, the changes are within the margin of error, so the increased lead may very well represent no more than normal random variation. Even if it is the impact of Syria and the lead is down to security increasing in salience, it will probably fade away once the political agenda moves onto something else.

It’s also worth noting that the fieldwork was before the row over the government’s handling of the immigration status of the Windrush generation so won’t take into account any impact from that (personally I suspect neither Syria nor the Windrush row will make any long term difference – voting intention seems to be very steady around neck-and-neck).

Full tabs for the poll are here.


610 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 43, LAB 38, LDEM 8”

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  1. Alec

    Typical and expected post from you, it’s you who lack self awareness..

    I said “Good to see the DUP are prepared to bring the Government down if it agreed to NI remaining in the customs Union to resolve the border issue.”

    I didn’t say that the DUP would never accept staying in the customs union, I was very specific about what they said.

    ” Fortunately May has made it clear yet again that we are leaving the customs union.”

    I used the word fortunately because I don’t want us in the customs union and i was aware there are circumstances where the DUP might accept that.

    So I am happy that the DUP support May in not having different arrangements for parts of the UK, and I am happy that May confirms yet again we are not staying in the customs union.

    You seem to lack basic understanding sometimes, and like BZ get cross when proved wrong.

    Anyway off for a walk now with my wife, so enjoy your afternoon.
    .

  2. RJW @ BZ

    Weird Battle of Britain factoid, the Swiss airforce shot down eight ME109s, which were probing their air defences during the Summer of 1940. They used their own 109s supplied by the Germans.

    Weird indeed. I knew the Swiss had 109s but not that they had used them in combat against the Luftwaffe. The Swiss Air Force Museum in Dübendorf (ZH) has one, but it’s about 25 years since I visited and I cannot remember the livery it had.

    The Swiss take their neutrality seriously and built extensive fortifications in the run up to WW2. A few Kms from my Swiss flat, there is the The Toblerone line which is a 15 Km line of tank traps running from Lake Geneva up into the high Jura now with a footpath along it. There are also disguised forts at various points along the line, the easiest to visit being the Villa Rose near Gland (VD).

  3. “You seem to lack basic understanding sometimes, and like BZ get cross when proved wrong.”

    ??

    Not just lacking self awareness, but completely lacking any kind of awareness it seems!

    Enjoy your walk. Bit breezy up here, but might be a chance for some gardening between the showers.

  4. TRIGGUY
    Is your brother also from Skaro? ( :-) )

  5. @TED

    No, but he did have a metal cage round his arm for a while, not unlike Davros’ head. He also has an immense classic era DW collection.

  6. I’m not sure whether is was Owen Jones who was talking of bad news for Labour in today’s London poll earlier in the week.

    Apparently not – ““Despite the small increase in support for the Conservatives, the Labour party is predicted to do better than any political party has managed in London for over 40 years,” said Prof Cowley. ”

    However, not winning Wandsworth and Westminster would, after the winter polls, be a disappointment for Corbyn, and would be spun as some kind of success for May. However – Philip Cowley again – “Holding on to Westminster and Wandsworth would not be a sign of success for the Conservatives, but “merely the avoidance of utter disaster”.

  7. BZ
    Without getting too alternative history, it is easy to envisage where the Wehrmacht might have turned if Lord Halifax and his mates in the Tory Party had got their way and the U.K. had packed it in during May/June 1940.
    There were quite a few Nazi sympathisers in Switzerland and the Swiss General Staff were largely Francophone and probably Francophile as well. So it would have been vital to send a very clear message to AH. Hence the downing of the eight 109s.

  8. @ALEC “There was some discussion on here about how the HoC can’t force the government to do anything, even though we’ve just had a binding Humble Address in recent months which forced the government’s hand”

    you’re misremembering. The humble address passed without amendment. The Government moved in relation to one of the tabled amendments (re NHS England and abortion for residents of Northern Ireland) but the amendment was then withdrawn so nothing was passed. So it’s an example of the soft rather than the hard power of the commons.

    For the record I’m not sure anyone is saying the House of Commons can do nothing. The point is that they can’t do everything. At least as the rules stand. Obviously they could change the rules. But the idea that there’s a plausible scenario where the Commons won’t agree to do X but will agree to rip up its rules, agree to some new ones, and then agree to do X after all, is what’s implausible.

    The obvious way to bind the government here is to amend the Withdawal Bill at the report stage to give that “meaningful” vote teeth. To give the Commons a statutory power to instruct the Secretary of State to (seek to) withdraw the A50 notice. That would certainly bind the government.

    They might withdraw the bill, but the chaos that would cause means they probably won’t.

    If the Commons isn’t even prepared to give itself that, and I bet it isn’t, can you really see a majority six months later for the fanciful stuff people suggest might hapo then?

  9. Alec

    “Not just lacking self awareness, but completely lacking any kind of awareness it seems!”

    That’s certainly how you seem to me, and the pair of you gave me a good laugh today.

    Yes splendid sunny walk but with a nice breeze to keep us cool. The allotments are coming on a pace, 2nd early’s just beginning to show, turnips and beetroot seeds up, planted out my first lettuces. heavy rain forecast for the weekend down here.

  10. New thread.

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