This morning’s Times has their regular YouGov polling figures, a chance to see if the ongoing row over anti-Semitism in the Labour party has had any actual impact outside the Westminster bubble. Asked if Jeremy Corbyn is doing a good or bad job as Labour leader, 56% now think he is doing badly (up from 37% back in December), 31% think he is doing well (down from 45% in December). It’s a big drop, but since the question was last asked at the tail end of last year one cannot necessarily assume it is due to the anti-Semitism row, many other things have happened in the last three months.

More importantly, it doesn’t seem to have had any real effect on voting intention. Topline vi figures remain neck-and-neck, with Labour actually a couple of points up on last week’s poll (though the change is well within the normal margin of error) – CON 42%(-1), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1).


183 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 42%(-1), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1)”

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  1. Any polling for local elections expected (eg by QMU) over next week weeks, Anthony? National picture is clear but sub-segments won’t give us a reliable picture before the day.

  2. Too early, I presume, for Corbyn’s stance on Salisbury to have been seen as realistic. I’ll be surprised if his ratings don’t improve in the next few polls. Perhaps significantly as HMG’s story unravels.

  3. “More importantly, it doesn’t seem to have had any real effect on voting intention”

    ——–

    Well, it could be keeping the Labour vote suppressed a bit.

  4. A warning to Cons. JC’s tumbling personal ratings do not reduce Labour’s VI.

    There has to be something to vote FOR, even when JC is in trouble.

  5. Still polldrums, they are pretty much as they were for the last 6 months or more. Bearing in mind all the anti-semitism allegations and the pounding Corbyn received in the press of the poisoning affair and his reaction to it, it is nothing short of remarkable that there has been no real effect on Labour’s voting intention figures

  6. Hi all

    Slightly tangential question…

    I can’t recall. What is the extent of live television coverage on local election evenings? Is it something worth sitting up to watch? Do most councils count on the day/overnight?

    Info. appreciated.

    Thanks

  7. Voting intention has not been hit too badly by the antisemitism row mainly due to two reasons: A. There has been no major changes in policy in any party. B. Most people can see antisemitism row is mainly just another smear by the press and its Billionaire Monopoly.

  8. I think BBC have comprehensive coverage overnight on the News Channel but I don’t think it is a special like the GE.

  9. “COLIN
    A warning to Cons. JC’s tumbling personal ratings do not reduce Labour’s VI.

    There has to be something to vote FOR, even when JC is in trouble.”

    I’ve lost track of how long ago May started saying the focus was to be on the just about managing.

    To be fair, she never said she would do anything about it.

  10. @Carfrew

    Being a bit disagreeable, aren’t we (see other thread)? “Dismissive guff” and all that. I’ve engaged many a time with all sorts of people about New Labour’s achievements and failures, but it’s an utterly pointless exercise with people who are so obsessively anti-Blair (and please don’t claim there aren’t legions of such people and accuse those of us who point this out as being somehow disingenuous). It’s also starting to become ancient history and while I think there are lessons for Labour when looking at what worked well, certainly electorally, in those years, it really is time to move on in terms of trawling through the entrails of governments from almost 20 years ago now. People will have wildly divergent experiences to draw upon and memories that will be refracted through the passage of time.

    Maybe we should just settle on an oxymoron to describe Blair. A “successful disaster” or maybe, a “disastrous success”; take your pick. The three times overall majority election winner (with two historic landslides amongst them) who, uniquely, left office after 10 years as PM with positive approval ratings, yet who, essentially, was really an unmitigated disaster. The history, thus far, of the New Labour years has most definitely been written by its arch enemies.

    @NeilJ

    “Bearing in mind all the anti-semitism allegations and the pounding Corbyn received in the press of the poisoning affair and his reaction to it, it is nothing short of remarkable that there has been no real effect on Labour’s voting intention figures”

    I agree. His personal ratings have taken a hit but who, with a straight face could say, after these last few weeks that he was “doing a good job”. Let’s get counter-intuitive here. It’s amazing that 31%, based as it is on this brief snapshot in time, still thinks he’s doing well. Lots of party partisanship in the answers anyway and when you consider the enemy fire on Corbyn this last month, he was bound to take a hit short term.. The extraordinary thing though is that it has had zilch effect on Labour’s VI. Extraordinary because this hasn’t been just about Corbyn. Party divisions have been exposed by the Salisbury and antisemitism rows and conventional wisdom has it that voters don’t like divided parties.

    Let’s get very counter-intuitive. If I was a Labour strategist and, after the month the party and its leader had just experienced, and we’d jumped 2% in the polls, I might just think this.

    “What the hell would it be like if we has a good month???”

    :-)

  11. CROFTY

    It is frustrating , that Brexit is so dominant in the agenda.

    On domestic policy May is no Small State Zealot.

  12. @Crossbat

    When it comes to bring disagreeable, it is not very agreeable to just dismiss others’ points as trotting out rehearsed lines, no illumination shed.

    The reality is that you cannot defend the difficulties regarding Blair and you don’t even try, so you just dismiss it, once again, as being anti-Blair. An ad hominem that’s both disagreeable and you can’t defend.

    You’re claiming others are irrationally biased, but you’re projecting. You cannot engage with the negatives. So you pretend others are just being completely negative, which is not the case. The rest are doing pros AND cons.

    It’s not anti-Blair. It’s just not massively pro-Blair. Blair did some stuff that most think was good, he did other stuff you guys can’t defend. The real issue that pro-Blair people have issues with, is the idea that some of the negatives weren’t actually necessary. That’s why their opinion is so fixed.

    In terms of opinion, it can be fascinating, there is something about Liberals and New Labour types that is hyper-sensitive to any disagreement. If I disagree with Colin, or Laszlo, or Greens or Corbynites or whoever, they do not take it as being persecuted, as one being rabidly anti-whatever.

    With Liberals and Blairites, to even just use those terms, Liberal or Blairites, they find it something to have a pop at. But Socialists and Consevatives don’t tend to mind you using Sovialism or Conservatism. (Nationalists do a bit but that’s more understandable…)

  13. Well it is interesting to see that the press have effectively ignored the fact that Boris lied, and continue to focus on anti-Semitism despite mass murder by Israel of unarmed protestors in Gaza. That including 8 reporters, all wearing the standard flack jacket with JOURNALIST emblazoned across it being shot (1 killed) by Israeli snipers.
    The number of Palestinians now injured by Israeli gunfire is well over 1000 and so far I have not heard of a single Israeli injury.
    It feels like the UK press is reporting very selectively and we are effectively being fed right wing propaganda only.

  14. Polls, I still see the Tories winning the next election, but again only as the biggest party unable to form a government on its own.

    No idea what’s going to shift it, possibly a poor Brexit? an amazingly good Brexit Though, on that count being as even most hardened Brexiteers, like TOH, seem to accept there’s a good chance its going to get worse before it gets better, and could even take a decade to start noticing any, if any, benefits, that seemingly would help Labour.

  15. COLIN, regarding may not being a small state zealot. You maybe right, so is iit those around her holding her back? She does have a lot of staunch right wingers in her cabinet.

  16. *May

  17. Stuart
    Don’t fret, the media ‘Gatekeepers’ are increasingly guarding empty turnstiles. People get their news elsewhere these days.

    BZ ON THE QT HMG’S PR IS FUBARed.

    Generally, I wonder if we are seeing one effect of Labour’s ‘ground war’ big battalions campaigning for the local elections? If so the Lab total should up tick a bit more ove the next few weeks.

  18. Crossbat11 – “What the hell would it be like if we has a good month???”

    Probably switched the other way – i.e 42-43% for Lab vs 40-41% for Con.

    The problem is that with Corbyn’s personal ratings so low this is unlikely to crystalise in a GE.

    I still think if there was a GE tomorrow the Tories would squeak through with 320-330 seats.

    Brexit will be the game chnager eventually. A good deal will see a poll boost for the Tories if voted through. A deal not voted through could trigger a GE.

    In the latter scenario the Tories would be wisest to run on a 2nd referendum ticket.

    UKIP would offer a no deal option
    LDs a full remain

    Labour would have nothing to offer.

    How that would redistribute VI would be anyone’s guess!

  19. With the Tory party membership as low as it currently is they do face a serious problem in both finding people to stand in some areas, and in actually doing any worthwhile canvasing.
    When they are campaigning for local elections and Tories are virtually invisible on the street it can’t do them any good.

  20. AM
    “Labour would have nothing to offer” (on Brexit)
    They’ve played a blinder so far with their ‘masterly ambiguity ‘. I don’t see why they’re going to suddenly start making a [email protected] of things. But then I’m not a Tory supporter flying a kite…

  21. RJW – agreed they played a blinder in 2017 GE managing to pull in virtually all the Remain vote. With a deal crystalised they would have nowhere to go though. The options would be copy the Tories or offer the implementation of a bad deal.

  22. As most of you know I am a big fan of EL ( Emotional Literacy) and it does seem looking at people’s views of Blair that their dislike of him or those who now dislike Corbyn seem to be driven more by emotion that evidence.

    As ever this leads to people both demonising and them rather forming a more ration view.

    For what’s it’s worth, I don’t think Blair was ever the right winger he is often portrayed as or vilified as” for me he was and is first and foremost a populist.

    Corbyns world view is;

    “This is what we believe in lets go out and convince people to vote for it!”

    Blair and New Labour were very much;

    “This is what people will vote for let’s go out and convince people we believe it!”

    Blairs popularity wasn’t so much because he pursued Tory Policies but because he pursued Popular policies. Continuing Right to Buy was a Tory policy, but a popular one. The minimum wage wasn’t a Tory Policy but it was a popular one. Keeping Taxes low was a popular Tory policy, but spending more on the public sector wasn’t, but it was popular too.

    This in part explains running a deficit even with a growing economy and rising tax take, and until the Banking Crisis it was still sustainable.

    The Tories have done a god job on Labour not fixing the roof when the Sun was shining, although to be honest Labour actually spent a lot replacing the lead the Tories had nicked, but look at the performance of the U.K. Public finances over the Blair Brown years as opposed to the Thatcher Major ones and there really isn’t that much difference.

    You could of course argue quite reasonably that both were equally fiscally irresponsible, but it’s had to make a case that without the Banking Crisis we would have had anything like the current situation.

    The Strength of the “Labour can’t be trusted on the economy” comes mostly from the fact that it places the blame on Labour rather than the system and that it works… It’s a narrative people believe, largely because they want to.

    It equally sticks because most Tories and a lot of Labour MP’s still don’t have an alternative to a City lead economic model so really don’t want to accept or admit it’s limitations and risks.

    Right now, if you can for a bit put Brexit to one side, in policy terms there really isn’t a huge gulf between the two sides. Tories will warn of a “Hard Left” Corbyn Government and Labour of more Tory Austerity but as with the last 20 years or more there will really only be 2-3% of GDP difference between then in the first few years if not the whole of the next Parliament.

    Like Thatcher Blair was good at giving the majority what they want, all be it by buying votes by mortgaging the future (Thatcher was good at buying votes bu selling off assets built up in the past!). Both came unstuck when the money got tight.

    For me I am watching an SNP that grew in strength in the years that Holyrood had plenty and then came to power able to spend it, struggle now that Autumn has come to the money trees.

    Forget Blair the Tory and venting your dislike of him, or Corbyn, Thatcher or May and instead focus on the Perils od Populism and how regardless of their Party, right or left, it lead to their rise and fall!

    Peter.

  23. “With a deal crystalised they would have nowhere to go though.”

    What deal???
    Still no solution for the NI border, Gibraltar – No agreement, Access to the EU for financial services – No agreement…

    Is there anything significant that has been agreed, other than how much the UK will pay just to settle our existing bills?

  24. The Conservatives generally and Osborne in particular made much capital out of the ‘fixing the roof while the sun was shining’ mantra, But in 2007, before the financial crash, he was certainly not saying that and promised to match Labour’s spending plans

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/6975536.stm
    ‘A Conservative government would match Labour’s projected public spending totals for the next three years, shadow chancellor George Osborne has said…
    Mr Osborne said: “The result of adopting these spending totals is that under a Conservative government there will be real increases in spending on public services, year after year.’

    Hindsight is a wonderful thing

  25. AM
    So a crystallised deal would be an unalloyed good for the Tories but bad for the reds? Pull the other one, politics is a fluid changing game, your predictions merely portray your predilections.

  26. Colin

    Actually although the parties are close at the moment the danger for any party with an unpopular leader is come a GE it’s a given that people who normally vote either Labour or Tory will continue to do so ,but those DK are more likely to vote for a popular leader or at least what passes for a popular leader than a unpopular one regardless of party. Of course that never shows in polls on the lead up to GE because the DK are recorded as just that with no party preference.
    Certainly the view within the Tory party as to why Cameron won in 2010 was more to do with his popularity than his party.

  27. RJW – only if it was bad and the Tories went for a second referendum.

  28. @RJW (4.50) While younger people may get their news thro social media etc, the same can’t be said for most of the older generation. I would include most of the over 50s in that. While the younger generation are undoubtedly more left wing, I suspect that the huge differential in VI is exacerbated in the relative source of news.

    As someone left of centre, it does disturb me that the tv news refers almost totally to the right wing press. As many on this site have stated, the press attack on Corbyn in the past month has been outrageous.

  29. AM
    Sorry you’ve lost me, only if what was bad? Boris Johnson’s breath?

  30. @Peter C

    “As most of you know I am a big fan of EL ( Emotional Literacy) and it does seem looking at people’s views of Blair that their dislike of him or those who now dislike Corbyn seem to be driven more by emotion that evidence”

    ——

    People have given lots of examples of things that had issues. How is that emotionally driven.

    The basic issue for New Labour, is the same as the one for the LibDems, who also pleaded they weren’t as bad as Tories but this falls down when people point out they did not need to do those things at all. It’s an utter straw man.

    Regarding popular policies, please point to the evidence for the clamour for ATOS, health privatisations, Academies, tuition fees, Iraq, banking crash, PFI, etc. etc.

    New Labour were popular because Tories were on the floor, which happened before Blair, and even after Blair, after the crash, with Brown having a mare, Tories still couldn’t win a majority.

    You talk of evidence not emotion Peter, but where’s your evidence? Even Right to buy, ok that may have been popular, but where does it say Blair couldn’t have changed the rules and built more housing to replace it?

  31. PETE

    I remember Redwoods proposals. Were they ever Opposition policy?

    Which are the “staunch right wingers” in the Cabinet?

    TURK

    Thanks.

    I can understand your point, but I do think Corbyn has a teflon quality -particularly for younger voters.

    There are so many variables just now-Brexit/ Con. Leadership/Lab unity-disunity/ that I find it very difficult to draw any conclusions from Polling.

    But I think that trying to win a GE by hammering away at JC is pointless. Policy yes. Personality no.

  32. Turk
    I think you’re deluding yourself there. Corbyn was portrayed as a carp leader before 2017 GE, but when people saw him, they were more impressed.
    I’m a non-Corbynista Labour supporter but my view of him has mellowed, and I think his performance has improved, as people like me – mainstream Labour, soft left – have come to accept him more. Confidence is increased by support and support increases confidence. Which is not to pretend for a moment that he gets everything right – which of us achieves that in any walk of life?
    I’m still unconvinced he can fully win through though: he is still Marmite on the doorsteps and from what I’ve seen more people loathe Marmite than love it.

  33. The basic problem with New Lab, and with LDs in coalition, is pleading you’re not as bad as the other lot.

    If you went into hotel to have some minor precidure and woke up to find they’d needlessly removed your leg, you wouldn’t necessarily find it acceptable if the doctor said “but we did a very tidy job and that Tory doctor over there would have removed BOTH legs! So what are you complaining about?”

    But the need for austerity,nor indeed the need for things like ATOS and so forth is decidedly unproven.

  34. Hotel = hospital

    Though one hears of some bad hotel experiences…

  35. Geordie
    I know it’s anecdotal but the reach of yer social media goes a lot farther than young ‘uns, at least into late 50s early 60s, most of my friends are Facebook savvy.
    Cheer up mate, the zeitgeist is with the lefties for a change!

  36. I don’t think Corbyn has been attacked really in TV news, and certainly not in the left-wing (so-called) press.

    Considering his sword out against oppression and inequality he was not saying a word about depriving 40% of Latvian children to study in their mother tongue in schools. I raise it because it is something on which he could have influence unlike in using live ammunition at the fence (he was right to condemn it, of course, and it must be dealt with).

    YEs, he has been criticising racism against many names ethnic groups in his life, which is right, but then he was enticing racism against East Europeans during the election campaig (it was calculated, not just an accident). He is criticising various parties for their anti-migration stance and racism, except for the views of parties in the faction with whom his MEPs sit, and of course members of his own party (those minutes in the Guardian are really bad).

    He is copying Mussolini (he really does – moral superiority, working for the people, against the “unnamed”, a good dose of nationalism, and so on), just he is not as good a theatrical actor.

  37. @Peter C

    Blair and New Labour were very much;
    “This is what people will vote for let’s go out and convince people we believe it!”

    ——–

    Or it’s, this is what the press are happy with so let’s do that. Press don’t care much about ATOS etc. so we can maybe get away with that etc.

  38. @LASZLO

    “I don’t think Corbyn has been attacked really in TV news, and certainly not in the left-wing (so-called) press.”

    ——-

    Lol, well there isn’t much of that! In the mainstream press it’s the Mirror, and, re….

    The liberal press, however, Indy and Graun, have had a field day attacking old Corbyn!

  39. Guymonde

    Sorry bit confused you say your not a Corbyn Supporter although you are on the soft left and you accept him.
    In my reply to Colin I said Labour supporters will vote Labour which is you.
    On the matter of DK which was my point if they had particular strong political allegiance then they obviously wouldn’t be DK ‘s my view is they are more likely to vote for a popular leader rather than the parties policies which may seem like heresy to some who post on here but without being to rude this is more the hard core end of political opinions ,most people simply don’t care about politics and even less about politicians .
    Much has been made of Corbyn’s success during the last GE well if you call being 55 seats behind the winning party and increasing your number of seats on the back of promising free student education which you’re since back tracked on the so be it.
    Again my view is Corbyn is he is certainly popular with people like you and for the moment he has captured the majority of the youth vote ,outside of that I think people view him with deep suspicion so in that respect your marmite analogy is correct and amongst the DK that could well cost Labour the next GE.

  40. Peter Cairns: Corbyns world view is; “This is what we believe in lets go out and convince people to vote for it!” Blair and New Labour were very much; “This is what people will vote for let’s go out and convince people we believe it!”

    Totally disagree with you on that one. Blair really believed in everything he did with a messianic zeal (including – especially – Iraq). He was a man with no self-doubt – possibly less even than Corbyn. Look at how Blair behaves even now. I’m pretty pro-Blair, but he still refuses to acknowledge the failings of his time in office.

    The rest of the party may not always have been on board with him, of course. At conference just after his second landslide, one person asked him why, considering it seemed like Labour couldn’t possibly fall out of favour whatever they did, they were not being more radical. Blair answered; “It’s worse than you think. I really do believe this stuff.”

  41. PETE

    The author has a different take on his proposals.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/oct/26/john-redwood-bank-regulation

  42. For all the talk of antisemitism recently, here’s some perspective:

    https://www.ft.com/content/ed901d78-38c4-11e8-8b98-2f31af407cc8

    As bad as things are in the Labour Party, they are much, much worse in Hungary. As Orban put it, “We are fighting an enemy that is different from us. Not open, but hiding; not straightforward but crafty; not honest but base; not national but international; does not believe in working but speculates with money; does not have its own homeland but feels it owns the whole world.”

    It makes my skin crawl to hear those words used by a European prime minister.

  43. COLIN, was that opposition policy?

  44. Turk – I also don’t buy this notion of Corbyn being constantly attacked by the media. In the 2017 GE he had virtually a free run. No scrutiny whatsoever of his spending plans for example. The Paxman interview was so biased against May and for Corbyn it was embarrasing.

    Even then he was only able to win 4 more seats than Brown did at Labour’s nadir in 2010. Had there not been the remainer surge in the South, I doubt he would have increased Labour’s seat count at all. And that was off the back of an awful Tory campaign.

    A good leader with the look of a PM in waiting (such as Kier Starmer, David Miliband or, if he was still around, Tristram Hunt) would be 20-30 points ahead now.

    Stranger things have happened but I doubt we will be seeing PM Corbyn any time soon.

  45. AM
    20-30% points ahead ? A decent leader ? You are a reverse fantasist, putting up impossible situations, in the hope that people will reject the perfectly satisfactory situation that Corbyn has delivered.

  46. @Sam

    Yes, that’s an article about Thatcher’s record. Got my hands full with the Blair thing at the mo, so you’re on your own with that one. Good luck!

  47. @ Andrew Myers
    “A good leader with the look of a PM in waiting (such as Kier Starmer, David Miliband or, if he was still around, Tristram Hunt) would be 20-30 points ahead now.
    Stranger things have happened but I doubt we will be seeing PM Corbyn any time soon.”

    Politics and predictability never went hand in hand, particularly in the age of the internet.

    I suppose the question is, who will be facing who?

    Jeremy Corbyn vs Jacob Rees-Mogg?

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