ICM’s regular poll for the Guardian today has topline figures of CON 44%(+1), LAB 41%(-1), LDEM 8%(+1). Fieldwork was between Friday and Monday, and changes are from a fortnight ago. Tabs are here.

There was also an Opinium poll for the Observer at the weekend, which had toplines of CON 42%(nc), LAB 40%(+1), LDEM 6%(-1). Fieldwork for that was Tuesday to Thursday, and changes are from February. Tabs are here.

Both polls also asked questions about how political leaders had responded to the poisoning in Salisbury, finding a similar pattern to YouGov last week. ICM found people thought Theresa May had responded well to the Salisbury poisoning by 51% to 22%, and thought Jeremy Corbyn had responded badly by 42% to 23%. Opinium only asked about approval of May’s response, but 41% said they approved, 20% disapproved.

Neither the ICM nor Opinium poll has significant changes, so I’d be cautious about concluding that the poisoning has had any impact on political support. Nevertheless, if we look at the longer trend in public support it does look as though there has been a slight improvement in the Conservative position – late last year the polls were typically showing a small Labour lead, in the last couple of months they’ve averaged out with Labour and Conservative neck-and-neck. Whether that small change really matters is a different matter, we’re a long way from a scheduled general election and there are some very big “known unknowns”, like Brexit, before we get to one. A couple of points either way at this stage of the Parliament is neither here nor there.


1,127 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 44%(+1), LAB 41%(-1), LDEM 8%(+1)”

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  1. OLDNAT

    “But we aren’t serfs, and you aren’t vassals, and intemperate language is always best avoided, even when it’s raining”

    Maybe, but I felt a good deal better about things after I had posted last evening.

  2. Demographic change.

    Two things about waiting for 2022 for a General Election and kicking the can down the road with a transition deal on Brexit (so we don’t leave till 2021) is that by those dates we will be both pro-Labour and pro-EU.

    So talk your out-dated, retired, miserly, isolationist, jingoist claptrap as long as you CAN talk, and then the next generations will clean up the sorry mess you have made of the UK, and in fact the world.

  3. Danny

    “Oh perfidious albion.”

    The Remainers and Europhiles anti British slogan. How appropriate to sum up their views.

    I slept well and feel on tremendous form this morning OLDNAT

  4. jonesin bangor.
    “Do you think a (fantasy) second referendum would have such a high turnout?”

    Hard to say. might exceed it. But untill a majority of those eligible to vote actively voted for such a change, i wouldnt regard it as binding at all. Only about 1/3 did.

    That is also the long and the short and the tall of the government’s problem. There has only ever been minority support for Brexit, and it is not enough to bring in a sweeping change which will have negative impact on many.

    And my occasional series on the NHS.

    Three days ago aged relative had his drug regime changed because of bad resuts from a blood test. Yesterday it was changed back. Why, I asked? Answer was, ‘dont worry, aged relative was safe at all times under the alternate regime”. But why the change? “Dont worry, aged relative was safe at all times”. But why did someone make the change? “I can assure you he was always perfectly safe”.

    Seems there is now no record to be found of the negative blood test result, and the doctor who made that decision isnt currently available. Oops.

    Crofty,
    “And finally, the voters were sold a pup”

    I’m not blaming you Danny but this is always stated as though it’s a bad thing.

    Now that made me laugh. Unfortunately, not always good either.

  5. NICK P

    “So talk your out-dated, retired, miserly, isolationist, jingoist claptrap as long as you CAN talk, and then the next generations will clean up the sorry mess you have made of the UK, and in fact the world.”

    You may think that but I want us to break free of the EU and engage with the whole World freely. The very opposite of isolationist which is what Remainers are, not Leavers.

    As to the young. They will grow up acquire some wisdom, and change their views as the generations usually do, so best of luck with that.

  6. Withthe new YouGov thats 4 polls in a row now with the Tories ahead of Labour.

  7. Analyst,
    “If we get our act together we can still recover in time for the locals. But we really need to get serious about anti-semitism in the party (and indeed external to it) and get serious about Russia – ”

    I’d say there is a good chance the timing of the Salisbury event was intended to help May. As well as Putin, of course. It has played well with both british and Russian voters. Both leaders have had a chance to sabre rattle.

    In the longer run, I still await any real action against Russia, beause I dont think there will be any. We already tried imposing sanctions for past events, and it didnt do much. The government is refusing to act against Russian ‘private citizens’ in the UK, which might actually hurt the Russian establishment. Even if reprisals now actually hit the Russian economy, it is still likely it will be a net win for Putin politically.

    As to labour’s pro-Jewish stance, it still seems much the same as any other group of politicians. It isnt really clear that a crackdown on antisemitism would aid the party electorally. There would need to be some careful polling on that which managed to avoid people giving the politically correct answers. But mostly, we are plainly in the middle of a campaign to attack labour with any weapon which can be found, and this one would to me be pretty irrelevant to my vote, which has always been on policy. I have never cared about the morals of actual incumbents.

    How much do typical voters care about such things?

  8. Nick P

    You might be interested in the following results from the latest BMG Poll

    Fieldwork dates: 13 – 16 Mar 2018; Sample: 1815 GB Adults, BMG Research

    “Do you agree, or disagree with the following statement? “The Government should get on with implementing the result of the referendum to take Britain out of the EU and in doing so take back control of our borders, laws, money and trade”

    All polled Agree 50%, disagree 23%
    18-34 years Agree 31%, disagree 23%

    So even the young agree with the proposition.

  9. OLDNAT

    You might be interested in details of another poll on the subject (sorry I cannot find details of the poll as I am quoting from a DM article but I will keep trying to find it).

    “Do you agree, or disagree with the following statement? “The Government should get on with implementing the result of the referendum to take Britain out of the EU and in doing so take back control of our borders, laws, money and trade”

    All polled Agree 57%, disagree 22%
    Scottish break Agree 44%, disagree 32%

    So even the Scot’s agree with the proposition.

  10. OLDNAT & NICK P

    Found it on Guido:-
    A new poll by BMG for Change Britain has found an overwhelming majority are in favour of getting on with Brexit. 57% agree that “the government should get on with implementing the result of the referendum to take Britain out of the EU and in doing so take back control of our borders, laws, money and trade”. Just 22% disagree. Bad news for the Best for Britain crowd, 31% of Remain voters now want us to get on with leaving…
    Indeed, the poll finds those who agreed with getting on with Brexit outweighed those who disagreed across all ages, classes, regions and political parties:

    Agree is the first percentage, disagree the second.

    Total 57% 22%
    Male 55% 25%
    Female 59% 20%
    18-34 40% 29%
    35-54 53% 23%
    55+ 71% 17%
    AB 53% 24%
    C1 50% 25%
    C2 61% 18%
    DE 68% 17%
    Con 78% 10%
    Lab 40% 36%
    LD 44% 34%
    UKIP 91% 3%
    Plaid Cymru 69% 19%
    SNP 36% 35%
    Greens 41% 34%
    East Midlands 53% 24%
    East of England 61% 18%
    London 49% 35%
    North East 62% 16%
    North West 62% 18%

  11. A slightly leading statement there TOH although i don’t doubt that in the current situation a majority of people just want the government to get it over and done with. I am not sure that there has been that much change there really over the last year or so, quite a substantial number of remainers feel the decision has been made so we should get on with it rather than having more referendums. Similar to scottish independence views and, if remain had won, then i would have thought quite a lot of leave voters would think that we had had our say and it was time to move on.

  12. TOH

    @”Withthe new YouGov thats 4 polls in a row now with the Tories ahead of Labour.”

    Yes. The Rule of 3 having been met I suppose we can say the party fortunes have swapped around.

    May has had some Brexit wins in terms of “getting on with it”-which as you demonstrate is what people seem to want.. She seems to have regained some personal authority too. But Brexit will be fraught with political risk for he till its done.

    Labour is perhaps more interesting.

    Salisbury doesn’t seem to have any downside for JC , given the core of his support is immune to perceptions of National Security risk in his beliefs.

    The anti-semitism issue might be more problematic if his inaction , & equivocation start another sectarian scrap in the party. Talk of deselections & Jewish Labour MPs crossing swords on tv with JVL spokespersons will run the risk of Divided Labour headlines again. We know the public react badly to divided parties & if JC gets a reputation for facilitating sectarian strife , the polling effects might be interesting.

    Early days though.:-)

  13. Amazed at how little comment there has been on Christine Shawcroft demanding/requesting that a prospective Labour councillor should not be removed from the party despite – so she claims – not having fully read the charges made against him !!

    And this, even though she was chair of the disputes panel.

    It does rather more than suggest an inherently biased attitude and I think there will be growing demands for her to step down from the NEC for bringing the party into disrepute.

  14. This is a bit like a decision to move to a new house. iWell it looks like a nice place, but no one, and especially the children are all that keen. You’ve gone and reconnoitred new schools for the kids, persuaded them that it’s OK to leave their friends and clubs (in the interests of Dad’s career), changed the clinic for the old lady’s post-operative care and bingo, and then you are asked, are you sure we ought to move?

  15. It does appear that the Labour Party is in danger of mirroring UKIP – the leaders will condemn racism but a vociferous minority of the membership will undermine the leadership with unhelpful and at times abusive comments, particularly on social media. I saw one party member comment on Facebook yesterday that the members of the Jewish Board of Deputies were only complaining about anti-semitism because they would lose financially from a Labour victory. She had no idea that this was an anti-semitic trope of the most obvious kind. There’s even a letter today on a Corbyn supporters group with thousands of signatories asking why “a special interest group” has so much control over the BBC. This kind of coded anti-semitism may not make a huge difference to the polls, but it is massively depressing for a traditional Labour voter like myself.

  16. CROFTY

    @”And this, even though she was chair of the disputes panel.”

    That was the astounding thing , given her beliefs.

  17. MIKE

    Do you think those people are Members of the LP-or is it difficult to tell?

    And do you think those “Corbyn Supporter” groups would dissipate if JC weren’t leader-or are they really supporters of his belief system who would transfer allegience to a continuity successor ?

  18. Colin

    The woman on Facebook was definitely a member of the Labour Party. I have no reason to doubt that many of the signatories to the letter were also members.

    I really don’t know whether these groups would dissipate if/when Corbyn steps down. They’ve pretty much taken over the Party, so I suppose it depends if they run out of steam and go back to marching and picketing Student Union bars, assuming the next leader doesn’t have the “charisma” of JC.

  19. MIKE

    Thanks.

    The whole thing is quite extraordinary.

    But I can see why a “traditional” Labour supporter would be concerned.

  20. CROFTY

    Were you thinking of O’ Vid?

    The Irish have claims to the great explorer, Mark O’Polo and to a recent American president, O’Bama

  21. Mike,
    “. She had no idea that this was an anti-semitic trope of the most obvious kind.”

    Ah, there we go. Playing the holocaust card as a free pass for what in different circumstances would be considered legitimate comment. What proportion of the population do not consider such special pleading is legitimate?

    Is this issue being used to attack labour because labour supporters are more likely to be concerned about such questions, whereas Brexit tories might say ‘so what?’

  22. The Other Howard: …. but I want us to break free of the EU and engage with the whole World freely. The very opposite of isolationist which is what Remainers are, not Leavers.

    Yeah, free trade deal with Turkey, unrestricted visas for Turks. Go Howard Go!

  23. CROFTY
    @”I think there will be growing demands for her to step down from the NEC for bringing the party into disrepute”

    Doesn’t look likely

    https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/uk/mcdonnell-backs-antisemitism-row-labour-official-to-stay-on-nec-36755632.html

  24. Some folk here, most notably perhaps the ever-optimistic Trevor W, think the rolling over of trade agreements made on behalf of the UK by the EU with third countries will be simple. Below is a link to evidence taking, a report and conclusions by the HoC International Trade Committee

    https://publications.parliament.uk/pa/cm201719/cmselect/cmintrade/520/520.pdf

    The extracts from the conclusions section are revealing. Even the number of deals to be rolled over is not accurately known.

    “However, there is a disturbing lack of precision and clarity about the legal mechanism whereby the Government envisages EU trade agreements with some 70 countries being rolled over. DIT must show, Number 10 and the Cabinet Office must support, and DExEU must allow, that DIT has a legally watertight and practically viable strategy for achieving “transitional adoption” at the point when it will need to take effect, so that UK trade with around 70 countries does not face a “cliff edge”, even if no withdrawal or transition arrangements with the EU should have been agreed or ratified. (Paragraph 33)

    6. The Government must treat the roll-over of EU trade agreements as an urgent priority. UK businesses, consumers and investors, as well as developing countries benefitting from EU trade agreements, all need certainty about future trade arrangements. DIT should publish a detailed timetable for this work, and this should be explicitly backed by Number 10 and the Cabinet Office. (Paragraph 34)

    7. The Government should produce a ‘risk register’, identifying clearly the agreements to be rolled over, with an assessment of how important each agreement is to UK 32
    Continuing application of EU trade agreements after Brexit trade. If resources allow within the time given, this should be compiled in consultation with Parliament, businesses and civil society. If resources do not allow for this, the Government should reassure us that this register exists internally. (Paragraph 35)

    8. The Government would risk appearing naïve if it assumed that assent-in-principle to roll over an agreement constitutes a guarantee that roll-over is actually certain to occur at the point of Brexit. It must be realistic about the steps that are necessary to get new agreements in place—and have contingency plans for the eventuality that the third countries concerned change their minds. This must include the pursuit of bilateral arrangements with each party with whom the UK currently has arrangements by virtue of its membership of the EU. (Paragraph 36)”

  25. Sky news reporting three Lab. MPs making Shawcroft’s NEC membership a “litmus test” of his promise to fight anti-semitism.

    Un-named Corbyn supporters reported as saying the whole thing is a stitch up by Lab Party HQ .

    Here we go again .

  26. COLIN

    I’m a Labour party voter but I find it extraordinary that someone who is CHAIR of a disputes panel can take steps to overturn a decision on suspension without having read all the details of the case.

    It does strongly suggest an underlying resistance to dealing with the problem at hand and is extremely worrying.

    The fact that they want her to stay simply because she would automatically be replaced by Eddie Izzard just makes it all worse.

    Of course, because I’m concerned I guess that makes me a “Blairite apologist” – even though, like many, I lost faith in him long before he ceased to be PM.

  27. This from Labour List sums it all up very succinctly:

    “We should be talking about Brexit. It’s the anniversary of Article 50 today, so we’re halfway through the two-year process. Chris Leslie has written for LabourList on how “taking back control” actually means Tory ministers taking control, and we’ll be publishing Lexit-y voices later.

    The top Labour story could even have been Sajid Javid’s ridiculous description of Corbyn-supporting group Momentum as “neofascist”. Green MP Caroline Lucas and Labour’s Corbynsceptic John Mann were amongst those calling on the Tory minister to apologise for his outrageous use of parliamentary privilege, protecting him from libel law.

    Instead, we’re stuck on internal Labour woes. Emily Thornberry yesterday joked the party would “probably” vote through a “blah blah blah” Tory Brexit deal, but McDonnell said the party is “nowhere near” doing so and Keir Starmer has reminded everyone of the six tests the deal would have to pass to gain Labour’s backing.

    More seriously, deciding that her call for the party to disaffiliate from trade unions wasn’t enough, Christine Shawcroft has again embarrassed Momentum (she holds no staff or political position in the organisation but remains a director), the Labour Party and the leadership. An email sent on Sunday leaked last night in which she defends a party member who has been suspended due to antisemitic social media posts including Holocaust denial.

    Shawcroft is chair of the disputes panel, responsible for heading up the Labour Party’s disciplinary process. Or was – she has now stepped down at Jeremy Corbyn’s request. (She remains on the NEC, possibly because her spot would automatically be taken up by Eddie Izzard, regarded as a Corbynsceptic. She was already due to step down as an NEC member, likely because she had her eye on parliamentary selection).

    This all makes Ann Black’s ousting from that role in January seem even more foolish.

    I’d like to be thankful this awful week is coming to an end. Instead, I’m horrified. And many Labour staffers and activists are deeply worried that the difficulties we’ve seen over the last few days are indicative of a number of wider problems – as well as institutional antisemitism – and that this is only the beginning of the Left’s troubles.

    Until a week ago, the funny thing was that both Labour and Tory top teams were relaxed, confident they could bob along neck-and-neck in the polls. Now only the Conservatives are feeling smug in the expectation that they can sit back and let Labour implode. The party must get its act together, fast.”

    Sienna @siennamarla

    [Must say I’ve never been one of those who thought Thornberry was a leader-in-waiting.]

  28. @ Mike/Colin

    Have you ever googled Tory Party racism and then gone through all the cases with the same forensic analysis you are doing in the case of Labour and then posted on UKPR to comment on what a serious problem this is for the Tories that they seem unable to deal with? For example we have a foreign secretary who has made a number of pretty much racist comments- words which probably wouldn’t pass AW’s autmod.

    I’m not denying for a minute that there aren’t issues that need dealing with and that Labour haven’t been slow to deal with them. I just think you need to get some proportion on the whole thing.

    This proportionality is something that has gone out the window- the number one demand among the leading Jewish groups is for Livingstone to be expelled and yet the Guardian reported that legal advice suggested he would be on firm ground for appealing an expulsion.

  29. One last thing – it’s ironic that the membership of the two main parties has now moved to polarised positions that are not necessarily representative of their respective voting pools.

    Even more ironically it’s probably the Tory members that are the most out of step with the electorate as a whole; but I think it is Labour that will suffer most, because, rightly or wrongly, I don’t think the potential popularity of their domestic policies will be sufficient to override the general distrust of Corbyn’s attitude to foreign affairs.

  30. SHEVII

    I hope people have higher expectations about a social democratic party than about a conservative party on these issues.

    The appealing to ignorance in the last few cases (including @Colin’s link to the Twitter which is a go on the benefit cuts but in a way that should never have been done) is actually negligence.

    The various forms of racism in Labour is a sign of radicalisation, and as such dangerous, because it has no direction, and hence a low hanging fruit – while UKIP is dissolving, you can be sure of the next one will be worse. I have come across a number of radicalized Labour supporters in social media sharing the post of one of the successor organisations of the National Front as it appealed to them.

    I really think the twists of the politics of parties like Die Linke is a warning sign.

  31. @Colin

    Sky news reporting three Lab. MPs making Shawcroft’s NEC membership a “litmus test” of his promise to fight anti-semitism.

    Un-named Corbyn supporters reported as saying the whole thing is a stitch up by Lab Party HQ .

    Here we go again .

    I think we can guess which small pool of Labour MPs these three belong to,

  32. Good Afternoon all from a wet Bournemouth East, which Momentum declares is number 78 target seat. Passover or Holy Thursday here.

    Bernard Donoghue’s letter is moving and brilliant about the LP’s state in today’s Times is worth a read IMO.

    To misquote Lincoln; I think that if anti-semitism and holocaust denial is not wrong then nothing is wrong; and we can tell much about the character of a person by the company she/he keeps,

  33. colin

    “Salisbury doesn’t seem to have any downside for JC , given the core of his support is immune to perceptions of National Security risk in his beliefs.
    The anti-semitism issue might be more problematic if his inaction , & equivocation start another sectarian scrap in the party.”

    And the being a spy? An IRA terrorist? Not bowing to the queen? Not being smart enough dressed?

    It really is pathetic frankly.

  34. Just to change the subject:

    From the Guardian 25/1/18

    ‘Sadiq Khan challenges release of rapist John Worboys

    The mayor of London, Sadiq Khan, is launching legal action to challenge the Parole Board over its decision to release the black-cab rapist John Worboys.

    The decision to intervene in the high-profile case comes days after two victims of the serial sex attacker started a crowdfunding appeal for a similar legal challenge against his release from prison.

    In a statement on Thursday afternoon, Khan said: “I have today lodged with the court an application for judicial review of the Parole Board’s decision to release the convicted rapist John Worboys. It was an astonishing and deeply concerning decision that simply cannot go unchallenged. For victims, and all Londoners, it must be properly scrutinised in the courts. The chair of the Parole Board has welcomed this scrutiny.

    The recently appointed justice secretary, David Gauke, announced 10 days ago that the Ministry of Justice would launch a similar judicial review of the decision, but dropped it a week later.’

    ————————————————-

    Hats off to Sadiq Khan for supporting Worboys’ victims. Given the sexist claptrap of his predecessor, in the House of Commons and elsewhere, I wonder what his response would have been? Bo Jo would probably have advised them to stay at home and not to go out on their own.

  35. And I have a suggestion chaps, what about the good old discussion about misogyny and sexism within the Tory party? That would be very interesting.

  36. Mike

    Labour in danger of mirroring UKIP?

    You mean apart from its half million members?

    You really are talking utter bilge.

  37. In other news
    I do hope the International Chemical weapons Agency definitely identifies the Salisbury nerve agent as Russki in source, beyond reasonable doubt that is. If they don’t then that’s going to be very inconvenient for Mrs May and ol’ Corby will have been vindicated yet again.

  38. @ SAM – I agree ensuring existing trade agreements continue in a years time is a top priority. We have 12mths. I am quite sure many countries will see the split of UK from EU as a chance to renegotiate from there side, especially on TRQs. There is a lot to do but since continuation of trade is in the interest of all of these nations then I expect it will be completed in time. It would seem obvious to initially seek to continue them until Jan’21 under current EU terms (especially the TRQs which I certainly expect will involve tough negotiations).

    I’m cautiously optimistic we can solve the problems as I see the glass 52% full, not 48% empty ;)

  39. FROSTY
    I agree with Your 9.27.

    COLIN
    Yes it is early days, and I agree with all the points you make in your 9.40 post. At least Tories have a few things to be cheerful about though

    TO
    Your usual nonsense at 10.40 I see. As Cameron once famously said “Calm down dear”.

    Valerie
    “Hats off to Sadiq Khan for supporting Worboys’ victims. “
    I agree that’s two days running I agree with you. Must be a record. :-)

  40. @ SHEVII

    “Have you ever googled Tory Party racism and then gone through all the cases . . . [as] you are doing in the case of Labour and then posted on UKPR to comment on what a serious problem this is for the Tories ..? For example we have a foreign secretary who has made a number of pretty much racist comments …”
    The answer to your reasonable if rhetorical question is No!
    The posters in question are not interested in a coherent discussion of racism in British politics but just want to slag Corbyn’s Labour party.
    It’s part of the decline in the rhetoric & balance of this site which has any number of obvious causes.
    (1) Brexit, above all. (2) A. Wells’s understandable withdrawal of moderation. (3) The flooding of the site with multiple & repetitive posts by obsessives. (4) The lack of female voices – it takes Valerie for eg to point to the problem of sexism in British politics is as acurte as that of racism. (5) The lack of elections (6) The fact that discussion is driven (distorted) not by polling but by a slavish addiction to the media’s self-interested preoccupations: the false assumption being made that the latter have a direct influence on polling.

  41. CHRISLANE1945

    Re holocaust denial I agree with you 100% but as anti-semitism applies to Hebrews, Arabs and other middle eastern races it is perhaps more nuanced than you suggest.

    The real problem there is Zionism, which is the canker between semitic groups and gives rise to the division within Labour. So long as the two groups have leaders [somewhat like our own albeit to a less awful extent] who cannot come to an agreement with each other, the rest of the world intervening won’t help.

  42. For cricket fans Darren Lehmann is to quit as head coach of Australia at the end of the current Test series against South Africa. He has done the decent thing at last in my view.

  43. Christine Shawcroft is making the same mistake that many extremists do, which is to put everything into a Mainichean balck-and-white version of the world, where there is no nuance and you’re either with them or you’re against them. Thus, someone who is on their side must be defended regardless of what they’ve said because they’re on the right team, and hate the same people they hate (Tories, Blairites, imperialists, etc). It’s the same reason that people on the left easily slip into antisemitism, because Jews are regarded as rich and successful, and the enemies of poor downtrodden Palestinians, thus must be attacked with as much venom as all the other enemies.

    The same straightforward extremist knee-jerk which led Shawcroft to defend someone guilty of Holocaust denial (Holocaust denial, for god’s sake), is what also leads McDonnell and Momentum to defend Shawcroft in turn. Corbyn himself is perhaps the most guilty of this kind of behaviour in the past, which is why he has such a history of poor associations. Here we can see NICK P making the same old arguments and denials because he agrees with Corbyn’s politics so any criticism of the man has to be a baseless smear.

  44. @ Shevii

    Following yr advice I Googled on “Tory Party racism.” After mamouth reseach — 4 seconds — I came up with the following contribution from Unite: “Dossier on racism in the Conservative Party”.
    It made interesting if gruesome reading.

  45. Mammouth#

  46. DANNY-

    ” this one would to me be pretty irrelevant to my vote, which has always been on policy. I have never cared about the morals of actual incumbents.”

    so you would vote in someone like Lenin if he offered you “peace,land and bread?”

  47. GARJ

    ” Here we can see NICK P making the same old arguments and denials because he agrees with Corbyn’s politics so any criticism of the man has to be a baseless smear.”

    I have to agree with you.

  48. As well as the 3+ polls for CON lead can we all finally agree we’ve seen ‘peak Corbyn’?

    The latest YouGov is damning of LAB’s chances under Corbyn. Best PM:

    May 38 (+2)
    Corbyn 27 (-2)

    CON
    May 83
    Corbyn 1
    Not sure 15

    LAB
    May 7
    Corbyn 60
    Not sure 33

    LDEM
    May 26
    Corbyn 17
    Not sure 56

    There is usually a bit of ‘grass is greener’ boost to leader of opposition (as PM has to deliver reality where as opposition can bake cakes) but even within LAB the leader approval is low and as for picking up swing voters – well, not looking good!

    I’m also quite happy to see people still expecting Brexit to be some kind of disaster (economically worse off, bad for jobs, etc). Project Fear 2.0 have done a great job in setting a very low bar of success. May/CON will get a further boost as those fears turn out false (as Project Fear 1.0 did).

    Personally, I’m not that excited about a CON lead in the polls though. It might make them complacent on domestic issues, lazy about Project After or might make the ferrets restless – none of which are good for solidifying and building the lead or fixing the many issues we face on domestic issues and making Brexit a success. IMHO May+CON are only in the lead because Corbyn is so toxic. I’d much prefer a positive reason for people to want to vote for them rather than simply Anyone But Corbyn.

  49. no, garb

    Tis you who are parroting barely evidenced horsesh1t.

    I agree that to equate being Jewish with being rich and grasping would obviously be antisemitic. I’d even go as far as to agree that wanting Israel to cease to exist as a state falls into that category. But basically, what the agenda here is to cast any stance that in any way conflicts with that stated policies and actions of the right wing Israeli Government as antisemitic per se.

    It’s dangerous.

    And that’s quite apart from the laughable bandwagoning from people who care so little about racism, misogyny, discrimination about sexual orientation – it’s all contemptible and risible.

    And I trust a complete waste of time, too. Playing to the blinkered gallery as we can see on this site.

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