We’ve had three voting intention polls in the last couple of days:

  • Ipsos MORI‘s monthly political monitor had topline figures of CON 43%(+4), LAB 42%(nc), LDEM 6%(-3). Fieldwork was over last weekend (Fri-Wed), and changes are from January. Tabs are here.
  • YouGov/Times on Friday has toplines of CON 41%(nc), LAB 43%(+1), LDEM 7%(nc). Fieldwork was Mon-Tues and changes are from last week. Tabs are here.
  • Survation/GMB, reported in the Sunday Mirror, has CON 37%(-3), LAB 44%(+1), LDEM 9%(+1). Fieldwork was Wednesday and Thursday, and changes are from the tail end of January. No tabs yet.

There is no clear trend – Labour is steady across the board, Survation have the Tories falling, MORI have them rising. MORI and YouGov show the two main parties neck-and-neck, Survation have a clear Labour lead.

The better Labour position in Survation is typical, but it’s not really clear why. As regular readers will know, Survation do both online and telephone voting intention polls. Their phone polls really do have a significantly different methodology – rather than random digit dialling, they randomly select phone numbers from consumer databases and ring those specific people. That would be an obvious possible explanation for a difference between Survation phone polls and polls from other companies. However, this poll wasn’t conducted by telephone, it was conducted online, and Survation’s online method is pretty similar to everyone else’s.

Survation’s online samples at the general election were much the same as everyone elses. The differences were down to other companies experimenting with things like demographic turnout modelling in order to solve the problems of 2015, approaches that ultimately ended up backfiring. However, polling companies that got it wrong have now dropped the innovations that didn’t work and largely gone back to simpler methods on turnout, meaning there is now no obvious reason for the difference.

Meanwhile, looking at the other questions in the surveys the YouGov poll also included their all their regular EU trackers, following Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn’s speeches. Neither, unsusprisingly, seem to have made much difference. 29% of people think that the Conservative party’s policy on Brexit is clear, up on a week ago (25%) but still significantly down from January (37%). 36% of people say they support May’s approach to Brexit, barely changed from a week ago (35%). For Labour, just 18% of people now think their Brexit policy is clear (down from 22% straight after Corbyn’s speech), 21% of people say they support the approach that Jeremy Corbyn is taking towards Brexit.


640 Responses to “Latest voting intention polls”

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  1. Colin: re your second paragraph -I don’t understand the logic of your proposition at all. Indeed I would turn it 180% .

    As WB has taken the trouble to let us know that he is too busy this week to respond to specific points, I hope he will permit me to air my own thoughts on this.

    I must say I find your failure to see the logic of his second paragraph puzzling. He is saying that if you want to understand how others outside the country view the UK, it is helpful to travel or live outside the UK to help share that perspective (the word WB used). Whether you agree with that or not, the logic seems crystal clear to me.

    I’ve tried your suggestion of turning the proposition through 180 degrees and this is what that exercise produces:

    do you agree that someone who stays in the UK will be better able to see how the UK is viewed as an ally than someone living or regularly travelling outside the UK, who is thus exposed to that external perspective?

  2. SOMERJOHN

    I agreed with WB that organising international co-operation is difficult. I am pleased thus far, with response of some key players-we will see what happens after tomorrow.

    WB’sother remarks were in the context of my response to a dismissive remark about UK’s international friends , by a person I understand to be living abroad, perhaps isolated financially from the economic cycles & difficulties in his chosen country of residence. The person in question is a vocal critic here of Brexit supporters.

    I understand the priorities which give rise to opinions & attitudes about UK from such quarters. I do not share the view that such sources represent receptacles of objective thought about UK.

    “billy no mates UK” kind of tells you that I think.

  3. Danny: I keep asking this qustion, but get no reasoned explanation how the UK can increase its attractiveness to compensate.

    In fairness to Leavers, the one answer on which they frequently fall back is, “we’ll do lots of free trade deals.”

    This doesn’t, of course, improve the attractiveness of the UK as a place to invest in production, since we are specifically agreeing to allow in goods produced elsewhere free of tariffs – so why would you go to the expense and hassle of investing in production here?

    There is also the point that as a slogan, “Open to the World” may have limited appeal to those for whom controlling immigration is a top priority and rationale for voting brexit.

    It also seems possible that where there is aversion to immigration, the degree of that aversion is directly proportional to the extent of visible and cultural difference between immigrants and those offended by it. That’s only my speculation, but it should be a testable hypothesis (and has probably already been tested: this sounds like one for Laszlo!)

  4. EZ periphery, ‘happy/model prisoners’, ‘hope in new commandant’ and ‘escape plotters’, some polling evidence!

    Ireland (+24) are highly confident in EU. Stable centre-ish govts, etc. no anti-EU sentiment (or parties) as EU has been turning a blind eye to the reason for Ireland’s economic recovery (NB GDP doesn’t build hospitals, taxes do!). With the tax haven and other scams they are running they are making the most prison life! Happy prisoner (unless or until their economic model is wrecked by harmonised taxes)

    Spain (+12) have been a ‘model prisoner’ – still in prison HQ’s excessive deficit program but hoping to be let out and rejoin the main cells for some modest freedoms. COLIN / SHEVII posts show they are maybe having a ‘Macron’ moment? No anti-EU sentiment. Happy prisoner but flirting with new commandant hoping he’ll improve prison life?

    France (-15) seem fed up with prison but not sure what to do about it. All the usual parties have failed to make prison life better or have ‘establishment’ issues. LePen and Melenchon’s semi-escpe plans are not appealing to the masses . So turnout drops and they pick a fresh face hoping the new commandant will find some elusive magic cure?

    Italy (-44). Escape hopefuls but without an escape plan or the ability to form a govt to execute a coordinated plan. Being inside the Euro any plan is also very likely to fail – they’d be shot down, bankrupted and left hanging on the razor wire (although they are a much bigger beast than Greece and might take the whole system down with them). Under pressure from prison HQ to cut debt but the bigger parties want to cut taxes (LN) or increase spending (M5S) – interesting commandant v HQ discussions ahead if they ever select a new commandant. HQ likely to win anyway and crush plans to cut taxes or increase spending! Frustration with prison life likely to rise.

    Greece (no polling). The failed escapee has being left hanging on the razor wire to show an example to all – escape it futile!

    https://www.orb-international.com/2018/02/15/confidence-eu-orb-doxa-poll/

    NB Germany (-7)! The prison system is wrong and we don’t want to be seen running HQ (left view). We’re not going to pay to fix it or make it more comfortable – those folks walked into prison they have to pay for it (right view).

    That is a little tongue in cheek but what alarms of lot of folks is HQ’s casual disregard for national electorates and democracy! Although we are leaving, the EU will be our near neighbours and hence we have an ongoing interest to see them do well economically and stay stable politically. Sadly unless they very quickly become a full federation with all the debt and transfer bits (Juncker’s scenario 5) or adopt Juncker’s scenarios 2-3 I fear the political stability will deteriorate at the national level and having not fully recovered from the financial crisis they are not ready to handle any new economic issues ahead (e.g. a trade war).

    Also worth noting UK recovered 3-7yrs quicker than EZ countries, hence fair to say the anti-austerity issue in UK is several years ahead of the resentment in many EZ countries.

  5. It appears to me that Brexit is seen to be successful if we manage two, almost certainly contradictory, things at once:

    – reduce immigration, specifically focused on non-productive immigrants (in practice, family members of Commonwealth immigrants already here) and those identified in some way as taking jobs that would otherwise be taken up by UK citizens; protect local British industry from competitive imports by imposing restrictions on EU imports.

    – increased immigration for skills that will ‘improve British competitiveness’; open trade with the rest of the world that will open up export opportunities that for some reason we currently aren’t taking.

    That is to say we manage to simultaneously deliver the agendas of the anti-globalisation, UKIP vote and of the fiercely pro-globalisation ‘ne0lib’ Tory vote.

    In reality, it seems to name that the small minority of pro-globalisation ‘ne0lib’ Tories are doing everything they can to hijack the vote and deliver their ‘vision’ to the exclusion of the other 80%+ of the population, all in the name of democracy of course…

  6. Colin,
    “I find this sort of remark & sentiment inexplicable from a British Citizen.”
    What does being a british citizen have to do with accurate and impartial analysis of data?

  7. Ipsos-MORI full tabs are out with the additional questions:
    https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2018-03/ipsos-mori-political-monitor-march-2018-tables.pdf

    p50 has the Clean Brexit v BINO that was mentioned in Evening Standard

    Net +13 prefer Clean Brexit (ie ability to make free trade with rWorld even if that means barriers to trade with EU) to BINO (maintain free trade with EU but unable to negotiate our own trade deals with rWorld)

    Crossbreak highlights:

    CON +51
    LAB 0
    LDEM -22

    North (ex-Scotland) +41
    South (ex-London) +16
    Scotland +11 (!?!)
    London -23

    surprising low DKs!

    I mentioned before that the regional breakdown is opposite to Treasuries ‘new’ draft analysis – North should be worst hit by Clean Brexit yet they are the ones keenest on it (opposite for London).

    Whether that is that they don’t believe the analysis, don’t care or know that we are a transfer union and hence can do something about it who knows – probably all three!

  8. @TW – “Whether that is that they don’t believe the analysis, don’t care or know that we are a transfer union and hence can do something about it who knows – probably all three!”

    I think it’s far more the fourth alternative – that they simply don’t understand what they are talking about.

    That’s really the only way to resolve the issue of why people want to see less free trade with the largest trading block in the world and more free trade with smaller, more distant and less important (to the UK) markets.

    We can’t even say that this is underpinned by sentiment on immigration, as all the main economies that Brexiters say they want more free trade links with are saying that they will require visa relaxation for them to agree deals.

  9. Heather Locklear charged with battery (BBC website)

    I’ve no idea who Heather Locklear is, but now we know how she keeps going.

  10. @colin

    You don’t appear to dismiss @Turk’s comments on the grounds thst he does not reside here etc. Why is that?

  11. @ ALEC
    – visa relaxation is not the same as freedom of movement, most trade agreements have some boost to visa ‘access’ but only the EU have full freedom of movement (feel free to bring up the India point – all past tense!)
    – there is a big disagreements between ‘gravity’ folks and ‘comparative advantage’ folks when it comes to the benefits of trade. I’m in the latter group and have highlighted in the past that If the EU trade zone was so great why has it been such a disaster (on historic or peer group comparative terms – no portal to parallel universe to see if it would have been even worse without EU). IMHO the EU zone is protectionist for the few and exploiting the many – appreciate you think its great, everyone entitled to their opinion and vote as they were on 23Jun16.
    – add a fourth reason if you like. I think we all know EUphiliacs have total disdain for democracy and the electorate. I would however agree that for many the immediate economic factors are not a top priority (we see that in the polling)

  12. HIRETON

    Did Turk ever use the phrase ” Billly No Mates UK” ?

    My point was that someone who consistently sneers at UK & UK residents , from a sedentary , financially independent position in a foreign country has scant credentials when it comes to assessing the likelihood of UK rallying international support for action against Russian aggression in this country.

  13. The Brexit bit from OBR didn’t come up with any shocks (sorry if that disappoints). Annex B.35

    “Based on the assumptions set out above, we estimate the total size of the financial settlement to be €41.4 billion, with just under half due to continuing in the current MFF, around half due to RAL payments and only a fraction due to other liabilities….This gives a total cost of £37.1 billion”

    Lengthy discussion of the bill, its ‘timings and triggers’, a whole bunch of caveats and which bits of EU expenditure will be replicated or changed once we’ve taken back control.
    http://cdn.obr.uk/EFO-MaRch_2018.pdf

    Hammond promised more info on where the implementation money is to be spent. In the meantime IfG did a write-up:
    https://www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk/sites/default/files/publications/cost-of-brexit-what-whitehall-spending-insight-final-vb_1.pdf

    It does look they are quietly getting on with it ;)

  14. Carfew

    Sorry about delay in answering different time scales.

    Yes I do think political party funding is a mess I’m personally against large donations whether they come from private individuals business or unions.
    In my view parties should be funded from the public purse how this would work in practise would be a difficult sale to the major parties or the public come to that,but in my view it’s the only way to remove unelected influences from government.

    Hireton

    I haven’t a clue what your referring to perhaps you’ve confused something somebody else has said “Billy no mates” is never a phrase I would use to describe the U.K. As for living in the US we are here for a while to support my wife’s parents who are in there nineties to manage there farm ,at some stage we will return to our farm in Dorset which is currently being run by my daughter and her family ,so to answer your question I have a perfect right as does any contributor who was resident in the U.K. and now lives abroad to contribute to thiese pages.

  15. Interrupting the current debate, but:
    if the results of polls were expressed as “result +/- margin of error”
    eg MORI Con 43 +/-3 compared to Jan 39 +/-3
    Lab 42 +/-3 compared to Jan 42 +/-3
    then there would be less excitement about single digit changes, and indeed less need for comment on the essentially static positions.
    Note that ” MORI have the Tories rising” is not necessarily true, as their ‘actual’ figure could be 41 or 42 in both months, while Survation’s ‘clear Labour lead’ might be as little as 41 over 40 (though about 4 points with a proper statistical calculation of the difference between two figures both subject to errors, rather than the 7 implied by the raw data.)

    [Except that if that were done, some would comment on the possibility of a 10 point surge in the Tory figures!]

  16. @ Turk

    Glad to see you agree that @colin’s attack on @bz was wrong.

  17. Dave

    I think you misinterpreted the behaviour of the margin of error.

  18. @colin

    I have seen no evidence that @bz regularly sneers at the UK and UK residents unless you are adopting the position that anyone who opposes Brexit is unpatriotic in which case that covers about half the resident population of the UK. And that wasn’t how your original post was framed. Anyway people can form their own opinion on your comment.

  19. Laszlo

    I concur, you can’t treat the variables as independent and you can’t just take the value at the 5% tail for both distributions and call that the 5% tail for the distribution of the differences.

    I think the MoE for a difference (for a sample size of around 1000) is about 5% when I last calculated it.

    Hireton

    I think we’re getting into “No true Scotsman” territory here.

  20. The UK Government provides further evidence of how it will be open and welcoming to the brightest and the best:

    https://www.palatinate.org.uk/exclusive-married-durham-academics-given-14-days-leave-uk/

  21. By the way, the Survation tables are out now:

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Final-GMB-Tables-070317NFCH-1C0D3H8-1.0.pdf

    Some other questions there, eg 50% say public spending cuts have gone far. But about 2% say the cuts have gone nowhere near far enough. Nice.

  22. Hireton

    I disagree with many people who post on here as no doubt they disagree with me. However I cannot recall a time when I disagreed with anything that Colin posted I find he’s post both logical and balanced and in the main I entirely agree with him. I should say I also find some of those posts I disagree with to be logical and balanced in there approaches to particular issues as well, but as I stated earlier I’m unclear what point your trying to make or what it’s related to or why you want to draw me into it ,however I feel it’s probably not worth the effort to research it so your forgive me if I don’t bother.

  23. CONSERVATIVE PARTY FUNDING

    If you give more £1500 to a political party it must be publicly declared. But if you’re a ‘shy Tory’ you can give up to £7500 anonymously as long as you channel it through the United and Cecil Dining club (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_and_Cecil_Club). It’s how the Tories get round the transparency rules.

    Not sure how you qualify to join these clubs….Russian mafia anyone?

  24. EUROSCEPTISICM

    I see that some people on this site expect, or hope, that the EU will collapse in the near future, so I did some research, i.e. looked on Wikipedia. This page: (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Euroscepticism) shows that parties campaigning to come out of the EU routinely poll at under 5% in most countries. Support for leaving the Euro is somewhat higher.

    So there’s no imminent chance of other nations leaving the EU, in fact they’re queuing up to join.

  25. “Survation/GMB, reported in the Sunday Mirror, has CON 37%(-3), LAB 44%(+1), LDEM 9%(+1).”

    Survation were one of only a couple of pollsters who got last year’s GE predictions right….

  26. PeteB
    Lizzie Kelly riding Coo Star Sibola wins the third race at Cheltenham today. She beat lots of blokes !

  27. @RJW

    ….and the Oxford/Cambridge boat race is nearly always won by a woman cox.

  28. Colin

    “I understand the priorities which give rise to opinions & attitudes about UK from such quarters. I do not share the view that such sources represent receptacles of objective thought about UK.

    “billy no mates UK” kind of tells you that I think.”

    Absolutely Colin very nicely put.

  29. Thank you, Hireton, for the Durham link at 2.18 pm.

    It`s another shocking case of academics who have been in the UK for many years being deported, based on Home Office rules, but with no moral justification.

    What with the dire statement from Hammond on the UK`s shocking low growth, and no relaxation in the attack on the public sector, it`s all very depressing.

    But I see the number of civil servants in central government is now rising to prepare for Brexit. Doubtless the millions they will cost is not included in £37/39 bn Exit bill.

  30. Alec referring to TW

    “I think it’s far more the fourth alternative – that they simply don’t understand what they are talking about.”

    Typical Alec, when the voters don’t vote your way you say they are ignorant. Like many Remainers you cannot grasp that Brexit is about “Freedom” form the EU” not the econonomy.

    I think its the fifth alternative. They want to leave the EU fully, voted for it, and haven’t changed their minds. Simple s that.

  31. Alec

    Sorry…………… freedom from………….

  32. @ TE – Well we know Juncker wants the rest of the Balkans in as the Empire expands, but I don’t think that will convince many Leavers to regret their decision!

    From a country like Albania’s perspective I’m sure the EU looks great. It’s working very well for most of E.Europe – free money from the higher GDP/capita nations, free movement out of the country (average wages in W.Europe are 5x or more Albanian wages) and businesses pouring in to get at the cheap labour that’s left (average wages being 20% of what they’d pay someone in W.Europe).

    The new members issue isn’t my #1 reason for voting Leave but try selling ‘people are queueing up to join’ in the Leave heartlands!

  33. It`s either bad weather, grim news on the UK economy or poor prospects for this dead Tory government, that has ToH with us today.

    But in the NE it`s warmer than for some time, and I`ve been out in the garden. The outlook here is no better: the “For Sale” signs are still up in our local streets, several since autumn 2016 and the houses are now empty. Also I should say we aren`t a run-down slum but in a high value postal code.

    Meanwhile the SCONs are making almost daily attacks on the SNP government, for things like spending £ millions bringing temporary overseas doctors instead of giving them permanent posts. They totally ignore that the squeeze is coming from the Westminster Tory government, and now we know it will carry on for years more.

    https://www.theguardian.com/public-leaders-network/2018/mar/13/spring-statement-public-sector-philip-hammon-brexit

  34. Well compared to all the little bits of newsmaker with opinions and confirmation bias here is the real thing (when referring to inflation figures).

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-43383612

  35. Newsmaker = news bits …

  36. So the Chancellor has quietly admitted that things are even worse than last November in a key aspect of the economy.

    Debt
    •Debt is forecast to fall as a share of GDP in 2019-2020, a year later than forecast in November.

  37. Davwel

    “the “For Sale” signs are still up in our local streets, several since autumn 2016 and the houses are now empty.”

    Is that in Aberdeen City itself, or in the more far-flung settlements (wee villages or green fields in my day)?

    It was always predicted that when the downturn in the need for workers in the oil industry came, that those houses built furthest out from the city (or the Airport) would be the hardest to sell (at least at the price they were bought for).

    Has the prediction come true?

  38. COLIN

    I find this sort of remark & sentiment inexplicable from a British Citizen.

    Why? HMG have been playing silly Bs with the EU27 and going on 2 years after the advisory EU ref they are still doing so.

    “A nerve agent attack on former spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter “clearly came from Russia” and will have consequences, the US secretary of state, Rex Tillerson, has said,”

    A pity, then, that Trump had fired him before Tillerson made that statement.

    OTOH, I recognise that my remark was OTT, given the overwhelming support re Russian actions from the EU27. England has never been good at humility, but it could do with some now.

  39. @TW
    You make it sound like expansion of the EU is some sinister plot.

    Common sense suggests that the EU will be most effective when it has achieved a single contiguous market and customs union across the whole of Europe. The challenge is to bring the least developed nations of Europe (currently Bosnia, Serbia, Kosovo, Montenegro, Macedonia and Albania) up to the level of economic and political development needed to allow them to participate effectively in the EU.

    Were we to remain in the EU we would have the option – which we CHOSE not to take previously – to impose restrictions on the number of people exercising their right to free movement from the accession countries.

    Equally we will then have access to additional markets – given the entrepreneurial spirit that is apparently just waiting to be released, and the relative physical proximity of these new markets, presumably we would be able to generate some exports to these accession countries?

    In truth there is very little to scare people in this – however I agree that the perception that folk will be given by the Leave-led media will be very different, and will generate real – even if unwarranted – worries about our streets being flooded with hundreds of thousands of Albanian thieves….

  40. @ TRIGGUY – thanks for posting some polling info!

    Survation did ask a variety of interesting questions.

    Q6. “Considering public services that have been outsourced to the private sector, which of the following is is closest to your view?”

    Even the CON x-break are slightly in favour if bringing outsourced public services back into public sector ownership. Very happy if CON get pulled closer the centre.

    Another one I like is Q8. Chance of recession.

    Net likely is +30 (47-17, with 29% neither and 7% DK). If I was HMG with over 4yrs to the next GE and roughly tied in the polls then I’d be pretty happy that people are ready for tough times – lots of upside when Project Fear2.0 turns out to be the same failure as Project Fear1.0!

    You pointed out Q5 I think but a bit of typo issue? Anyway, it probably shows where the upside in CON VI can come from. Hammond is a little too Osborne2.0 for me but the pressure on him to open the purse a little will hopefully bear fruit soon.

    @ TE – did you make up that 5% Eurosceptic claim or is that linked to the EP 2014 elections? The link you provided had a lot of anti-EU polling info (Eurobarmoter surveys), “a positive image of the EU are down from a high of 52% in 2007 to 37% in autumn 2015”
    Certainly in some countries no party is capitalising on this negative image but I don’t see that as something to celebrate. The anti-EU parties are generally quite extreme which is thankfully deterring then getting many votes but they’ve been growing many countries in domestic GEs.

    You highlight my very concern – EUphiliacs and Brussels don’t seem to be aware or to care about the growing resentment towards them in many of the 27 (formerly 28).

    As I mentioned earlier, the countries in the EU will remain our near neighbours once we’ve left so Brits have an interest in their economic success and political stability.

  41. Re attempted assassination of Skripal

    It might well have been the Russian State – but why would they?

    There’s the obvious political motivation in the West to blame them, but I’m never keen to just accept the statements of countries acting in their self interest.

    There are other possible actors in the drama, and Craig Murray has suggested a couple of them.

    https://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2018/03/russian-to-judgement/

    Of course, he may be totally wayward in his speculation – but so might May and other leaders in theirs.

    As all aficionados of crime stories will know, demonstrating motive is a key aspect of crime solving (Neil A, feel free to comment :-) )

  42. @ TW

    “You pointed out Q5 I think but a bit of typo issue?”

    True. I was (in principle) attending a meeting at the time, and I’m not good at multi-tasking.

  43. @ BFR – I don’t see expansion as a sinister plot in itself just that the way they want to do it is an extremely bad idea. Juncker not only wants to expand the Empire he wants everyone to join the Euro.

    Bad idea x very bad idea = extremely bad idea!

    A single market (without full FoM but freedom to negotiate own trade deals etc) would be excellent IMHO – provided it included fully liberated services (they’ve dragged their heels for decades on that).

    That sounds a lot like EFTA (with a + or two!) and not far off the EEC (with expectation of services liberation) that won such a high vote back in the 70s. Such a shame it didn’t stay as a trading partnership – we wouldn’t have needed to leave!

    Yes, we should have CHOSEN to delay FoM on new joiners – an important detail in Blair’s second biggest mistake!

    As for access to additional markets how much global GDP are the Balkans likely to provide by say 2030 – Albania is currently 0.02% of World GDP (add them all up if you want)! Even then and even if we end up with WTO deal trade between UK and EU won’t go to zero.

    It’s the essentially political project and democratic deficit that I don’t like. Continental Europe has gone down that path far too many times in the past!

  44. @ ON

    “It might well have been the Russian State – but why would they?”

    This is very much the argument a Russian politician was expounding this morning on Today. Given what he went on to say, I’m not inclined to believe his viewpoint. Worth a listen if you haven’t heard it, around 8:45. It’s one of the only times that I’ve heard the Today program essentially cut someone off in the middle of an interview. The trigger for that was when he accused the UK government of making up the whole thing to discredit Russia in a strategy which was similar to that of a certain German leader last century (his words not mine).

  45. oldnat

    “It might well have been the Russian State – but why would they?”

    Well, one popular theory is that they are really concerned that England would [almost certainly] win the Footy World Cup in Russia so that are trying to force us to boycott the whole thing…..

  46. Trevor Warne,
    “CON +51
    LAB 0
    LDEM -22”

    Not sure what you are saying there Trevor, on the face of it you seem to be saying the policy barely has support amongst tories, never mind amongst the population as a whole

  47. ON @ 4.38 pm:

    The prediction you remembered about the effect of bad times in Oil/gas on house prices and their selling around Aberdeen, has certainly been borne out.

    A slow pick-up is now occurring close to the city, but is less evident where we are up Deeside. For example a spec-build group of 6 or ?8 attractive houses east of Garlogie (8 miles out) that remained totally empty for most of 2017 has now been fully occupied.

    Several of the places you remembered as small villages are now 6000 – 12000 small towns. You can view their state from the brilliant NLS overheads:

    http://maps.nls.uk/geo/explore/#

    Others might be interested to see the AWPR, since this is very obvious on overheads recently posted there from last summer.

    NLS has given us a brilliant resource and it goes across England too. I can sit at my computer and guide botanists working on Exmoor where to search, like “go 40 m downhill, and near a large tree”.

  48. @Turk

    “In my view parties should be funded from the public purse how this would work in practise would be a difficult sale to the major parties or the public come to that, but in my view it’s the only way to remove unelected influences from government.”

    ———

    Indeed, funding from the public purse would reduce unelected influence, however so would electing MPs via the jury service model, bypassing all this party nonsense.

  49. Trevor Warne,
    “– visa relaxation is not the same as freedom of movement, most trade agreements have some boost to visa ‘access’ but only the EU have full freedom of movement ”

    I fear again you are making an ‘angels on the head of a pin’ argument. It really is the same, no matter what form of licence people have to be here. It is clear the government is seeking to make the argument you do, that because we make a rule allowing in 100,000, it is entirely different to EU rules allowing in 100,000 but it isnt, and I think many who voted for brexit to stop immigration will be upset to find it continues after a re-branding.

    There really is no evidence that there are surplus EU workers in the Uk, and the numbers have always well balanced demand. This is precisely the situation the government has promised will continue.

  50. Toby Ebert,
    “I see that some people on this site expect, or hope, that the EU will collapse in the near future, ”

    I think you will find it is part of the leave ongoing campaign. The aim is to make an argument no one wants to belong to the EU, so there is no point us belonging either.

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