Quick update on recent polls – ICM in the Guardian have topline voting intention figures of CON 43%(+1), LAB 42%(-1), LDEM 7%(nc) (tabs are here). Voting intention remains as static as it has been for the last eight months or so.

The rest of the poll was sadly agree/disagree statements, but for what it’s worth they don’t suggest any particular impact from Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn’s speeches on Brexit last week. For Theresa May 30% agreed her speech made her position clearer, 35% disagree; for Jeremy Corbyn 32% agreed his speech made his position clearer, 31% disagree. I suspect in both cases this is actually a third of people who had an idea of the party position (or are giving a partisan pro-party answer) rather than a third of the country who have actually become more enlightened.

659 Responses to “ICM/Guardian – CON 43%, LAB 42%, LDEM 7%”

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  1. @Alan Good luck.

    I was born in Northern Ireland so my 3 children and I now have Irish passports as well as British ones so can remain EU citizens. Sadly my husband can’t, even though his mother was German, as German nationality rules are both ageist and sexist.If my father-in-law had been German rather my mother-in-law my husband would qualify or a German passport; if his parents hadn’t been married, or if he had been born later, he would also qualify. Funny old world!

  2. Artemis


    Depending on the rules of disengagement, it may become necessary for me to apply for citizenship after the qualifying period. Right now Dual British/German nationality is possible. It remains to be seen if that will be the case in future. I expect my opponents to force me to give up my nationality as part of “getting their country back”.

  3. ToH and Alan

    For a moment reading your exchange I thought we had finally reached the brexit stage where brexiteers advocate deporting [email protected] It’s a bit early but we will probably get there.

  4. Princess Rachel

    No, I am fleeing of my own free will! (I suspect my exploits won’t be made into a sequel starring Kurt Russell; not enough explosions and a lot more form filling).

    It seems as if they want to make it as difficult as possible for me to return in the future though. I fully intend to ensure that it is Britain’s loss.

  5. @JBoyd

    “None of these hypotheses are contradictory and I think there’s pretty solid evidence for all of them.”


    Well you haven’t provided any. What you have done is invent some errors based in some dodgy correlation.

    So, you say more educated people may have more economic status, and then assume that they would therefore be pro EU because they’ve done better.

    Meanwhile you also think they’ve been more swayed by the establishment project fear arguments. Why would the more educated be more swayed by project fear of the Remain campaign than the less educated? (and you don’t consider that the less educated might have been affected by fear-based arguments if the leave campaign over immigration).

    In effect you are basically saying you think the more educated are more likely to be wrong, sans evidence.

  6. BBZ
    “A sensible member would have at least have tried to negotiate the treaty changes it wants at the next opportunity before storming off in a huff”.

    Well if we knew when the next treaty might be, maybe but given that all the eu member governments will avoid another treaty if they can because some will struggle to get it past their electorate, we might have to wait 10 years. And in any case, Cameron tried to get some face saving changes through and was sent away with a flea in his ear.

    Merkel & co, like Frank Field and Patricia Hewitt must really rue their stupidity, in doing what they did.

  7. @ Barbazenzero

    I don’t think you can assume that Barnier has kept the 27 informed of his approach; and there have certainly been some voices amongst them that have been less than supportive of it (mainly, it must be said from Eastern European states).

  8. @carfrew

    I’m sorry but you missed my point.

    I was presenting a number of alternative hypotheses which would need to be discounted if the theory in the post to which I was replying were to be proved; and they haven’t been discounted.

    We do know that there is a strong correlation between educational attainment and economic status; it isn’t much of a leap to suggest that the result may be greater support for the status quo amongst those groups.

    And the better educated might be more persuaded by ‘Project Fear’ because they consume more news and comment (i.e. they’re more politically engaged) and more likely to trust pro-Remain media (e.g. the BBC, the Guardian).

    It’s not really about being ‘wrong’ because it’s a matter of subjective opinion and what shapes it.

  9. @SAM “According to Wren-Lewis, the polls on Brexit’s likelihood to harm the economy of the UK are tied between optimism and pessimism because of the failure of the press to report expert opinion on the matter.”

    Perhaps, although it doesn’t help that the ORB question is unanswerable.

    How strongly do you agree or disagree? Britain will be economically better off post Brexit.

    Than what? By when?

    The answers are clearly interpreted as if the question could only mean worse off than it would have been in the absence of Brexit, and worse off over the timescale of the impact assessments where there is broad consensus.

    Maybe those who answer should all assume that is what it means. But it’s not what it says.

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