YouGov poll of London

YouGov have a new poll of London for Queen Mary University of London. Westminster voting intention in London stands are CON 33%, LAB 53%, LDEM 8% – little different from at the general election.

More interesting, given we are only a few months away from the London council elections in May, are local government voting intentions of CON 28%(+2), LAB 54%(+17), LDEM 11%(+1), GRN 4%(-6) UKIP 2%(-10). Changes are since the last London local elections which were back in 2014, on the same day as the European Parliament elections.

If these figures were to be reflected in May’s elections it would be an extremely strong performance for Labour, building upon 2014 results which were already pretty strong. Exactly how good it would be in terms of seats and councils gained depends on how the vote is distributed. The figures suggest a very different picture in inner and outer London. In inner London the poll suggests a swing of 13 points from Conservative to Labour – that would be enough for Labour to win the “flagship” Tory borough of Wandsworth (controlled by the Conservatives since 1978) and Westminster (controlled by the Conservatives since it was created in 1964). However, it wouldn’t necessarily net Labour a huge number of extra councillors since in many inner London boroughs like Islington, Lambeth and Lewisham Labour already hold the overwhelming majority of the councillors anyway.

In outer London, where the Conservatives are likely to be picking up votes that went to UKIP last time, the poll suggests a much smaller swing to Labour – something around four points. That would be enough for Labour to take Barnet, but the Conservatives would probably be able to hold onto other outer London councils where Labour are the main challengers. The battle between the Lib Dems and the Conservatives in South West London is, of course, difficult to discern from a Londonwide poll.

The full tabs for the London poll are here.

There was also a new GB poll out today from ICM for the Guardian. Topline figures there are CON 42%(+1), LAB 43%(+3), LDEM 7%(-1). Tabs are here.


626 Responses to “YouGov poll of London”

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  1. That’s your view GARJ.

    Both parties want a customs partnership or arrangement of some sort with the EU, although Labour seem to be more committed to not Breeching the GFA.

    Being in a customs partnership must place some restrictions on the ability of the UK to strike deals with other countries. Labour are in effect saying that they will forgo more than the Tories will as inevitably the greater the level of sovereignty pooled the greater the limitations on countries.

    Starmer is judging that the NI/ROI situation can not be addressed short of a customs union. I have not seen anything from the Tories to show he is wrong.

    Perhaps JRM and Sammy Wilson saying the GFA has had its’ day means they agree as they realise that keeping faith with the GFA means the type of Brexit they want is not possible so are seeking to trash it.

  2. Sam:

    “EU will produce its legal text on what was agreed in the Joint Report. What it says about NI / Ireland will be interesting. Also, interesting will be what differences, if any, arise between the DUP and Mrs Mat.”

    I expect it will look remarkably like the original December deal. The DUP confronted the EU with a genuine “no deal” possibility, hence apparent compromises.

    The EU will have discovered that its apparent compromises amounted to nothing. The important thing for them will be the demand that either the UK stays largely subject to the EU, or Northern Ireland does (under de facto Irish representation). Once we sign the withdrawal agreement, the EU and Ireland will have no incentive to consider alternatives.

    In fact, Irish nationalists will have every incentive to bring down the whole process and leave them 50% of the way to unification. The worse it is for the UK, the more leaving N. Ireland largely in the EU makes a nonsense of the Province being in the UK.

  3. @ SEA CHANGE – the very real risk however is that Barnier sees Corbyn as a far better option than May. EU’s Plan A is BINO – -:
    – we pay the full divorce bill and keep on paying some contributions 2021+ so EU27 can have free access to UK consumer.
    – we lose MEPs and any voice on EU Council (pay no say)
    – we become a vassal state (Barry Gardiner also using that term) with no ability to do our own trade deals stuck in the CU, full alignment to all EU rules, ECJ judgements, etc.

    My guess is Remain know BINO- is a horrible outcome but see it simply as a stepping stone. Umunna is already out pushing for SM as well as CU. The Primrose path leads to revoke+remain or A49 but we’d end up getting EU Plan A, Best for Brussels, EU27 jobs first Brexit, a Brexit for the many (EU27) rather than the few (UK)

    Also while May is asking for cake, it is hard to fully discredit Corbyn’s cake.

    We need a decisive vote in HoC to move on and put this CU nonsense behind us. Barnier has a strong incentive to push BINO – if I was in his shoes I’d be doing exactly what he is doing (and what I expect he will do this week). EC will not take May’s Plan A seriously while they have a great Plan A+B (for them):
    A – force May into BINO (ERG won’t let that happen)
    B – constitutional crisis in UK that possibly leads to Corbyn as PM but would probably run down the clock out and allow them to dictate BINO.

    I suspect EU Plan C is to let us crash out on WTO hoping the lack of actual implementation planning forces us into a UFT version where they can put tariffs and NTBs on UK exports but we give unfettered access to them.

    The next few weeks will be very important. May needs to seriously up her game. No more cake – people want the “meat” on the implementation “bones” and visible action: regional plan, sector plan, immigration plan, hiring customs officers, etc, etc – how will May ensure Brexit is a success (ie how does she plan to “affect the weather”).

    I’m mildy optimistic because May appears to have inner cabinet united (Hammond agreed to “managed divergence”) but she needs to build on that – ensure she has HoC majority, ensure she starts enacting implementation and above all get on with it!

  4. @JimJam:

    “Both parties want a customs partnership or arrangement of some sort with the EU, although Labour seem to be more committed to not Breeching the GFA.”

    The GFA does not actually mention eliminating all policing of the border – it really does not.

    The argument is more spiritual. The GFA agreement recognises Irish unification aspirations, so any sort of border policing or paraphernalia is a step away from that. Strangely, creating the full monty between N. Ireland and Great Britain is, according to the Irish and EU, of no significance to N. Ireland’s relationship with the UK. And Unionists should not think it at all a step away from the UK that putting tariffs up between N. Ireland and the UK, but Republicans may legitimately be utterly outraged at the first sign of a CCTV camera near the border.

    Anyway, it is just a means to force the UK back into the EU. And one of the most successful weapons in the EU’s armoury.

  5. So-cake all round then.

    Except the LibDems who , to do them credit, eschew semantic exploitation of English Grammar.

  6. sea change

    I actually thought corbyn went some way at least towards a sensible position so actually I was wrong.

  7. thanks for that Joseph.

  8. Just catching up with Corbyns speech, personally I’m glad he’s taken direction from the remainers in the Labour camp who plot away to overturn the brexit vote in all but name.
    I’m sure it’s been sold to him that it’s a way to force a early GE as he personally has little interest in how brexit turns out and has flip flopped on the issue since he became leader.
    What I find encouraging in this blatant piece of electioneering is Labour could find danger in becoming a very London based party were it listens exclusively to the remain camp younger Labour voter to the exclusion of those traditional northern based Labour strongholds that voted out.
    Not that I’m suggesting there will be a great northern crossover to the Tories rather a curse on both your houses with people not bothering to vote in a GE something that will favour the Tories in those areas.

  9. @Trevor Warne

    I have never believed that when push comes to shove that Parliament will vote for BINO. I may be wrong of course, but I don’t think it is politically tenable when 2/3rds of all UK constituencies voted Leave. I think such a situation would be overturned at the following GE and would only prolong Brexit even further.

    @Crofty

    I’m at a loss to understand why Labour thinks directly challenging the EU’s redlines over the single market and the Commission’s sole competence over trade policy is in anyway a sensible negotiating strategy. It’s a non-starter.

  10. @Turk: London’s not the only remain voting part of the UK! We can debate Corbyn’s motives for this change in position, but this will go down well in many other parts of the country than the capital, although I would argue that despite the rhetoric in the Daily Mail, the Labour leadership position is still further away than what the remain voting supporters would want than it is from want Labour Brexit voters would still be happy with.

  11. I think the one major difference between the two major parties’ respective positions is that Labour has not defined any red lines.
    With the luxury of opposition (I do not for one moment think that when push comes to shove sufficient Conservative MP’s will vote for a result which has the potential to usher in a Corbyn premiership) the absence of red lines gives a room for manoeuvre which means they can keep tacking as the Conservative Brexit course progresses. I still think the red lines mean that WTO will be our fate.

  12. Trevor Warne,
    ” EU will love this option as they can drag us into BINO and get us to pay for a very bad deal.”

    There are a lot of people who think that hard brexit is an even worse deal than soft. I noticed Corbyn saying whatever the outcome, labour would strive to ensure the UK has control of its trade arrangements. And of course the most effective way to do that would be to remain a member. Perfect coordination with Gardner. (I was quite impressed with him when I saw him debating in the referendum, and thought at last someone talking knowledgeably. The set piece debates were awful.)

    I dont see how others view it, but I see a political dance where everyone seeks to position for their best advantage, but the whole ensemble slide slowly in the direction of the remain door.

    As someone likes to post, get out the popcorn!

    Sea Change,
    “Labour has managed to add a side of trifle and lashings of cream to the cake.”
    I’m glad we all agree that all sides are proposing impossible forms of Brexit….

    Trevor Warne,
    “we become a vassal state (Barry Gardiner also using that term)”
    Labour obviously decided to take the slogan for their own, like Maggie’s ‘iron lady’.

    “We need a decisive vote in HoC to move on and put this CU nonsense behind us.”
    We arent going to get one. Whatever happens, I predict Brexit will be a hot topic for decades.

    It is easy for leave to get what they want, all they need do is demonstrate the superior position of the Uk outside rather than inside the EU, but they cant. (nb, propaganda will not suffice, it will be tested by outcome)

  13. Don’t come around here too often these days, but saw this Twitter thread based on BES data (i.e. the gold standard for political surveys).

    It really, quite comprehensively, debunks the idea that Labour leavers are likely to stop supporting the party, even in the case of a more pronounced pro-EU shift on Brexit. Not least because they’re the least likely to engage and / or care.

    The first graph sums it up for me – Labour leavers actually care the least about Brexit of almost all voters.

    Here’s the thread: https://twitter.com/kevcunningham/status/967907521372540928

    However, he suggests that the Labour Brexiteers who abandoned the party in GE2017 are quite unlikely to return. But that a more anti-EU position probably would not achieve this anyway. This makes sense to me.

  14. Turk,
    “I’m sure it’s been sold to him that…”
    Labour may yet fall flat on their faces, but Corbyn executed a political miracle to become leader of the labour party and then dragged them from nowhere to a very close second on massively increased votes.

    WB,
    “(I do not for one moment think that when push comes to shove sufficient Conservative MP’s will vote for a result which has the potential to usher in a Corbyn premiership”

    Why should it. The FTPA was designed to break the link between governments losing votes and a new election. The tories do not need to cease being government just becasue parliament instructs them on the terms of brexit. Ministers take orders from parliament, though they forget this.

    My argument has always been that tories want to get out of government, but it would be impossible to force them out.

  15. Another shocking statistic from the BES data: When asked whether voters would support a second referendum (on whether to accept the deal or remain in the EU), as many Labour leavers are in favour of a second referendum as opposed it – 44% vs 44%. For Conservative Leavers it was 18% vs 73%.

    Even Conservative Remainers were only slightly more likely to support such a second referendum than oppose, at 51% vs 41%.

    This led Kevin to conclude that ‘Labour Leavers are simply softer on Brexit’. Hard to disagree.

  16. I quite approve the evolving Labour position that Corbyn has set out today.

    We know that not everything on UK cakestands will be accepted by the EU side in the negotiations, but this Labour cakestand has better ingredients than the Tory one meantime.

    It makes more sense for NI/Rep border, and has kind words about the SM, even if not arguing yet for the UK to stay there.

    As Labour`s Leave voters come increasingly to realise how they were fooled and made use of by hard Tory idealists in 2016, then they will come to approve remaining in both SM and CU, joining the LibDem and SNP party positions.

  17. TOBY EBERT

    Can’t remember if anyone has already pointed this out. If the London polls were replicated in a GE (admittedly, a very big IF) then IDS would lose his seat, and probably Boris too.

    Well as Anthony mentions above the Westminster poll is pretty much unchanged from the result last June:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017_(England)#London

    If anything this one only shows a slight swing from Lab to Green, but that would be likely be reversed in an actual campaign. So it would be unlikely for any seats to change hands.

    That said YouGov did underestimate Labour in London in 2017 by about 5 points:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2017#London

    similar what they did in their general GB polling (and similarly by over-estimating smaller Parties rather than the Conservatives), but you would assume that corrections have been made since that correct the biases there were in those polls.

  18. @DAVWEL

    ‘We know that not everything on UK cakestands will be accepted by the EU side in the negotiations, but this Labour cakestand has better ingredients than the Tory one meantime.’

    Well the CBI and TUC agree with you!

  19. At last Labour are starting to recognise what most of their voters wanted. In the referendum around 70% of Labour voters voted to remain. Corbyn’s latest position is not perfect but it is moving in the right direction

  20. TOBY EBERT @ DAVWEL

    Thanks for the heads up re the CBI and TUC reactions to Corbyn’s speech.

    From the Politico article:

    Corbyn’s speech won the immediate backing of the powerful business lobby the Confederation of British Industry.

    While criticizing Labour’s “overall rhetoric of re-nationalization,” CBI Director General Carolyn Fairbairn said that Corbyn’s commitment to a customs union with the EU would “put jobs and living standards first.”

    “It will help grow trade without accepting freedom of movement or payments to the EU,” Fairbairn said. “Importantly, a customs union will go part of the way to providing a real-world solution to the Irish border question that is of such urgent concern to the people and firms of Northern Ireland.

    “This evidence cannot be ignored. To do so would create barriers where there are none, risking prosperity and future living standards,” she added.

    Also a mention in the Evening Standard:

    An editorial in the London Evening Standard newspaper, edited by former Conservative Chancellor George Osborne, said that Corbyn has “with the smallest of nudges, manoeuvred himself into a more pro-business, pro-free trade European policy than the Tory Government.”

  21. Davwell,
    “We know that not everything on UK cakestands will be accepted by the EU side in the negotiations, but this Labour cakestand has better ingredients than the Tory one meantime.”

    My mother tells a story abour herself and a friend visiting the Gleneagles hotel, and a very nice cook showing off his cakestand and cakes. Maybe we should be checking out some scottish cake too. Just a thought.

  22. Corbyn says “Britain will need a bespoke, negotiated relationship of its own.”

    It’s that word ‘bespoke’. I think I’ll claim first on calling ‘Tory-lite’ on Corbyn.

  23. Its a funny old world, with the TUC and CBI united in support of labour, applauded by ex tory cabinet ministers. And the blairites thought you needed to shift to the right to accomplish such a thing.

  24. RESPECTING THE REFERENDUM RESULT

    As democrats we have to do the above, but what does it mean?

    It must mean: what were the main campaign themes of the Leave campaign? From memory there were two: money (£350 miilion per week for the NHS) and ‘taking back control’ (immigration mainly, plus European court).

    The money claim was always bogus, as pointed out by the UK Statistical Authority, so that leaves ‘taking back control’. By far the largest part of this is immigration, with a little bit of ECJ thrown in.

    Therefore, any deal that controls EU immigration would respect the result of the referendum. Obviously being in the CU would be OK, and even being in the SM would be OK if there were immigration restrictions.

  25. Did anyone actually read the CBI piece? They want “a comprehensive CU” but then final paragraph:

    “But businesses have their eyes wide open on Labour’s overall rhetoric on re-nationalisation. If Labour turns its back on good collaboration between the Government and the private sector – putting vital sectors solely in the hands of politicians – public services, infrastructure and taxpayers will ultimately pay the price.”

    CBI and likes of Osborne are ne0liberals who want to stay in THE CU or ideally the full EU, quite different to supporting Labour! They want May to do a U-turn they don’t want Corbyn in #10 and McDonnell in #11.

    http://www.cbi.org.uk/news/comprehensive-customs-union-with-the-eu-a-real-world-solution/

  26. TREVOR WARNE

    CBI are pi**ing in the wind on State Monopolies.

    Corby’s cake clearly includes the facility to pursue his policy preferences.:-

    ““We would also seek to negotiate protections, clarifications or exemptions, where necessary, in relation to privatization and public service competition directives, state aid and procurement rules and the Posted Workers Directive, We cannot be held back, inside or outside the EU, from taking the steps we need to support cutting edge industries and local business, stop the tide of privatization and outsourcing or prevent employers being able to import cheap agency labor from abroad to undercut existing pay and conditions.”

    JC

  27. WB

    @”Labour has not defined any red lines.

    JC certainly has today:-

    “A new customs arrangement would depend on Britain being able to negotiate agreement of new trade deals in our national interest..
    Labour would not countenance a deal that left Britain as a passive recipient of rules decided elsewhere by others. That would mean ending up as mere rule takers.”

    JC

    So-thats a CU with the EU , requiring UK to apply the external tariffs-but which allows UK to breach them in bi-lateral TAs of its own

    “““That new relationship would need to ensure we can deliver our ambitious economic programme, take the essential steps to intervene, upgrade and transform our economy and build an economy for the 21st century that works for the many, not the few.
    We would seek to negotiate protections, clarifications or exemptions, where necessary, in relation to privatization and public service competition directives, state aid and procurement rules and the Posted Workers Directive, We cannot be held back, inside or outside the EU, from taking the steps we need to support cutting edge industries and local business, stop the tide of privatization and outsourcing or prevent employers being able to import cheap agency labor from abroad to undercut existing pay and conditions.”

    JC

    Self explanatory-EU rules on State Aid, Competition , and Posted Workers -quote “cannot” hold Labour’s plan back.

    His cake is a lot pinker than TM’s-but you can see his Red Lines in it quite clearly.

  28. “But businesses have their eyes wide open on Labour’s overall rhetoric on re-nationalisation. If Labour turns its back on good collaboration between the Government and the private sector – putting vital sectors solely in the hands of politicians – public services, infrastructure and taxpayers will ultimately pay the price.”

    ———–

    Well putting them in the hands of the private sector means people are already quite often paying a price.

    But that bit about “putting vital sectors SOLELY in the hands of politicians” is not necessarily the plan. If instead for example Corbynism just introduces a state player into the market…

    Which leaves open the possibility this might be acceptable to business. That its the “solely” thing they might have issues with.

  29. Given some of the carefully weighted policies of the 2017 GE, it wouldn’t be completely surprising if the approach to Nationalisation was similar. Enough to secure some benefits without frightening too many horses.

    There is little point doing otherwise. Too much gung-ho nationalisation will just set up conditions for Tories or Liberal tendency within Labour selling it all off again in future.

  30. Watched a tiny bit of corbyn’s speech, turned it off because it was awful. The content was ok but the delivery was a disaster. It reminded me of those hostage videos where the hostage is very aware of the gun/sword aimed in their direction.

  31. Watched a tiny bit of corbyn’s speech, turned it off because it was awful. The content was ok but the delivery was a disaster. It reminded me of those hostage videos where the hostage is very aware of the gun/sword aimed in their direction.

  32. DANNY
    I believe @DAYWEL’s Cobynite cake stand will be attractive to both SNP and SLP,, and to the Scottish unions, given the potential for the key question for the Scottish economy of access to EU labour, in which the potential to maintain the average net migration of about 24,000 and continued recruitment to key occupations will not pose difficulties under a devolved “managed” migration. Given also the proposed continued membership of ERASMUS,EURATOM etc,
    I would pay for that.

  33. CARFREW
    ” If instead for example Corbynism just introduces a state player into the market…”
    If, moreover, it also meant putting substantial investment funds into the market place accessible to both private and public sectors.

  34. JP

    The SNP and the SLP supporting Corbyn over May who would have thought that would happen.

  35. @Danny

    “Its a funny old world, with the TUC and CBI united in support of labour, applauded by ex tory cabinet ministers. And the blairites thought you needed to shift to the right to accomplish such a thing.”

    It’s quite amusing but let’s be honest, Corbyn has adopted a Tory Eurosceptic position on this. He’s closer to most Tory MPs than most Labour ones, isn’t he?

    It is a funny old world indeed. Most politicians are actually backing positions other than those that they want because of who else wants them.

    Corbyn now wants Soft Brexit because his voters do, Johnson wants Brexit because he still thinks he might be PM, Tory Remainers are now pretending they might want hard Brexit after all because Corbyn now wants soft Brexit and the hard Brexiteers now want hard Brexit having campaigned on a soft one because Remainers will accept a soft Brexit and the point is as much to leave the EU as to humiliate the sort of people who vote Remain. And God knows how many people voted the way they did because the Russians convinced them.

    When about the only senior politician who has stayed consistent is Chuka Ummuna, things are a bit weird.

  36. Shock horror!

    HM’s Leader of the Opposition seeks facility to pursue his policy objectives!

    SNP and SLAB support him over May.

    Corbyn will be trying to bring down the government next – the scoundrel!

  37. Interesting moves, but not entirely unexpected.

    Politically, the attack lines are starting to appear to voters as being Cons trying to ‘honour the referendum result against Labour’s betrayal’, while Labour are going for ‘what’s best for the country’.

    There is a problem in pinning your strategy on the result, as this is already 18 months old, and preserving this as the only true moment in time for voters desires and ambitions leaves you open to the risk of being left behind as voters move on. Meanwhile, Labour appears ‘sensible’ for talking about jobs, business, what’s best for the Uk etc.

    It’s clearly not easy for Labour either. I think it’s a fair point to identify previous EU put downs for Cons cake and eat it strategy and suggest that Labour is also asking for a big slice of cake also. How the EU respond is going to be very interesting. I have a sense that they may be more amenable to Labour’s ambitions, but that isn’t a given – we remain in a weak negotating position.

    Maybe – as leavers insist – a compromise is on the cards, although if it is, it’s going to be easier with Labs position than with Cons.

  38. TURK
    “The SNP and the SLP supporting Corbyn over May who would have thought that would happen.”
    More conjectural would be SNP abandoning their demand for remaining in the Single Market in favour of joining Labour in a bespoke CU and thus leaving the EU.

  39. PRINCESS RACHEL

    If Corbyn is going to continue to row back on his principles whenever it’s expedient for him he might need to practice sounding a bit more like he actually believes what he’s saying. If he’s not careful people will start to think that he’s willing to do anything for a sniff of power, just like all those other politicians.

  40. @Alec

    “There is a problem in pinning your strategy on the result, as this is already 18 months old, and preserving this as the only true moment in time for voters desires and ambitions leaves you open to the risk of being left behind as voters move on. Meanwhile, Labour appears ‘sensible’ for talking about jobs, business, what’s best for the Uk etc.”

    ———

    It possibly boils down to why Labour Leavers voted to leave.

    As an approximation, there were three main reasons commonmy given on here for voting Brexit. The Sovereignty thing (bit of a minority sport), immigration, and being unhappy with so many foreign people arriving, and finally, those identified by Ashcroft, as being unhappy with the way things are (with housing, jobs, wages etc.), and the EU ref was an opportunity to register disproval.

    Whereupon the question becomes: which of these groupings dominates Labour Leavers. If Labour leavers are dominated by the Ashcroft faction, then it makes sense for Corbyn to appeal to them in terms of things they’d like to see improved on jobs, utility bills etc.

    Obviously immigration might matter to these people, but if it’s mostly because they link it to their poor circumstances, then if Corbyn addresses the circumstances, immigration concerns lesson.

    This might be in contrast to those voting Brexit primarily because of foreign people arriving, rather than being unhappy with their economic circumstances. If these better-off people are unlikely to vote Labour then there’s little point in Labour chasing them.

    Corbyn’s best strategy might therefore be to keep banging on about improving people’s economic circumstances.

  41. @ALEC

    I am not sure the EU will respond to this at all. I would not since the Labour party is not in power not only that but despite political churn of policy are unlikely to be in power no matter what.

    If May is listed the Tories need not have another election and most probably not want one. So you are left with negotiating with the Tories. The point why I believe the EU have set their negotiating position early and have stuck with it is that at the edges they can move. This would essentially mean payment for access for financial services for example.

    I don’t think Corbyn’s speech is far from that of May. I think the tone is different but the substance is the same. I believe we end up leaving the EU to WTO because whilst we don’t want to in general we have put our political class in a position where that is the only real option available to them if we are not to have another referendum.

    It is the reason that I believe Labour leavers want another referendum because they can either reaffirm their decision or change their minds brexit in terms of ideology was not important to them. The problem with the GE2017 is that it was inconclusive and as such we have had two narrow votes which we are trying to make it seem like they were definitive. We do not have any definitive answers and at present our electorate cannot give us one and our political class is also split 80 or so MPs both Labour,Tory and DUP want a clean brexit and there is about 80 or so many opposition MPs that favour a softer brexit. The rest are purposely trying to avoid making a decision that puts them on the outside of their party. It is a messy situation borne of a messy situation which is leading to a messy situation.

  42. So now Labour are saying staying in the single market is an option not a policy has anybody explained this to the dear leader I’d hate the thought people were thinking he was talking a load of unachievable twaddle today.

  43. @PTRP

    “It is the reason that I believe Labour leavers want another referendum because they can either reaffirm their decision or change their minds brexit in terms of ideology was not important to them.”

    For a lot, the chance to give a Tory PM a kicking was irresistable. And it drove him into retirement. Give them an opportunity to kick another Tory PM and possibly wreck the Tories in the process, and the result would be predictable.

    The campaign slogan writes itself for much of the country. ‘Which would you really rather see the back of – the EU, or the Tories?’

  44. ALEC

    @” How the EU respond is going to be very interesting. I have a sense that they may be more amenable to Labour’s ambitions, but that isn’t a given – we remain in a weak negotating position.”

    Well if the agree to a UK/EU CU with UK retaining-and I quote from JC the power ” to negotiate agreement of new trade deals in our national interest..”-then TM will be doing cartwheels.

    :-)

  45. Chris Riley,
    “It’s quite amusing but let’s be honest, Corbyn has adopted a Tory Eurosceptic position on this. He’s closer to most Tory MPs than most Labour ones, isn’t he? ”

    Theres that old rhyme, ‘you can lead a horse to water but you cannot make it drink’. My view is that tories are remainers, and labour are remainers, so on their views, not much difference. But on how to achieve their goals, they are in different positions and thus need different approaches.

    Corbyn today relieved some of the pressure on the tories. They want to U tun, but it is very difficult given their voters. If Corbyn becomes publicly remainish, then they can point at him and say how they would never do such a thing, and then blame it on him when they do.

    But on the other hand, someone has to start leading the country back to remain before brexit happens by default. While the two parties have been playing chicken over who dares leave it the longest. labour has decided the balance of advantage now favours their taking action. My judgement is that their public support has started to drop off because they have been too accepting of leave, while the tories have taken quite a pasting already. They will take more pastings before this is over, Corbyn hasnt let them off the hook yet. But labour has judged this is the moment to show a little remain leadership.

    Alec,
    ” …that Labour is also asking for a big slice of cake.”

    Some might argue that setting up big expectations for Brexit raises big questions about its viability at all when those expectations prove to be unattainable. Push the meme that Brexit means many wonderful things, and then show they are impossible, so obviously all of brexit is impossible.

    Labour today set out certain requirements of any brexit deal, which is pretty much what it did in the manifesto. If it turns out that hard brexit cannot meet these red lines, and then that soft brexit cannot meet them either, then clearly no sort of brexit is acceptible. labour’s red lines are ones which prevent us leaving, whereas tory red lines have been ones which stop us remaining.

  46. Chris Riley

    “When about the only senior politician who has stayed consistent is Chuka Ummuna, things are a bit weird.”

    You might want to do some research before making such outrageous claims

  47. Chris Riley

    “When about the only senior politician who has stayed consistent is Chuka Ummuna, things are a bit weird.”

    You might want to do some research before making such outrageous claims

  48. @Colin

    “Well if the agree to a UK/EU CU with UK retaining-and I quote from JC the power ” to negotiate agreement of new trade deals in our national interest..”-then TM will be doing cartwheels.”

    Is that before or after the ERG send her a stern note telling her that they will not accept cartwheeling?

  49. @PR

    I deliberately wrote a post designed to tease as many people as possible and made a private bet with myself that the first person to cry about it would be a Corbynite outraged that I might praise someone not on the Approved List.,

    Just for you here it is again:

    Chuka Ummuna has consistently shown more steadfast principles on this issue than Jeremy Corbyn He is not, in fact, the devil.

    Deal with it.

  50. PRINCESS RACHEL

    He did what he always does-wander off ; whatever the key topic is, into a description of the Socialist Land of Milk & Honey For All which he has dreamed of for decades.

    I got the impression he isn’t interested in Brexit at all-he even took the trouble to say “in or out”-we aren’t going to be stopped from doing this stuff.

    So we got a strange amalgam of his usual list of the Bad People in the Capitalist System-and the headline topic.

    Pure JC.

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