YouGov poll of London

YouGov have a new poll of London for Queen Mary University of London. Westminster voting intention in London stands are CON 33%, LAB 53%, LDEM 8% – little different from at the general election.

More interesting, given we are only a few months away from the London council elections in May, are local government voting intentions of CON 28%(+2), LAB 54%(+17), LDEM 11%(+1), GRN 4%(-6) UKIP 2%(-10). Changes are since the last London local elections which were back in 2014, on the same day as the European Parliament elections.

If these figures were to be reflected in May’s elections it would be an extremely strong performance for Labour, building upon 2014 results which were already pretty strong. Exactly how good it would be in terms of seats and councils gained depends on how the vote is distributed. The figures suggest a very different picture in inner and outer London. In inner London the poll suggests a swing of 13 points from Conservative to Labour – that would be enough for Labour to win the “flagship” Tory borough of Wandsworth (controlled by the Conservatives since 1978) and Westminster (controlled by the Conservatives since it was created in 1964). However, it wouldn’t necessarily net Labour a huge number of extra councillors since in many inner London boroughs like Islington, Lambeth and Lewisham Labour already hold the overwhelming majority of the councillors anyway.

In outer London, where the Conservatives are likely to be picking up votes that went to UKIP last time, the poll suggests a much smaller swing to Labour – something around four points. That would be enough for Labour to take Barnet, but the Conservatives would probably be able to hold onto other outer London councils where Labour are the main challengers. The battle between the Lib Dems and the Conservatives in South West London is, of course, difficult to discern from a Londonwide poll.

The full tabs for the London poll are here.

There was also a new GB poll out today from ICM for the Guardian. Topline figures there are CON 42%(+1), LAB 43%(+3), LDEM 7%(-1). Tabs are here.

626 Responses to “YouGov poll of London”

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  1. ROBBIEALIVE “They attempted to make us play Rugby at school, accompanied by the “team games are good for you” blah.”
    They made me play rugby once, without any explanation of what I was supposed to do, I remember standing on a muddy patch of grass for about an hour or so, if I hadn’t been utterly indifferent I would have been completely baffled. I still have no idea what happens in a game of rugby, nor any interest in finding out.

    I would have killed for a cinema like yours to bunk off to, we used to volunteer to serve tea and biscuits at the salvation army to get out of team sports, and I believe we are now all the better rounded individuals for it.

  2. Prof Howard & Laszlo

    Or something odd about the Tories?

    If you have oodles of cash and not much idea about how best to use it …..

  3. OldNat

    Something is odd about the Tories,but I have been watching the BBC version of the House of Cards (and the two subsequent series, and there are still three episodes to watch) from the early 1990s for more than a week, and it somewhat clouds my judgement :-)

  4. theexterminatingdalek @ ROBBIEALIVE

    You both seem to suffer from the idea that you must have liked physical exercise (and, in Rugby, risking serious injury) to enjoy watching those who do enjoy such activities demonstrate their skill.

    At school, a number of us chose golf as our Wednesday pm sporting activity.

    After the 2nd hole we were out of sight of the club house, and could meet up with the girls who had chosen cross country running along the beach.

    Going to see films seems very tame in comparison.

  5. Turk

    “Well I give JC that ,at least he’s managed to drag the Labour Party back to the 1960’s”

    Better that than Moggo’s attempt to drag the Conservative Party back to the 1860s.

  6. @Robbiealive

    “[Where were the anti-Hockey girls, damn it?]”


    But that’s the point. It’s the people who play team sports who are likely to meet up. That’s why oldnat met the runners. Because they were out there… running…

    I mean, golf isn’t the most “team” of sports but oldnat somehow found a use for it.

  7. Just spent 5 minutes following the comments on Facebook on Njul Fabbarge’s LBC show discussing Labour’s CU manoeuvre.

    Chheeesus K Reist!
    Things that honk and squeak and gibber.
    Are they ‘bots’?
    I certainly hope so.

    That’s all.

  8. Carfrew

    As I remember, the girls were actually strolling rather than running. They knew how long it would take us to play a couple of holes.

  9. @TED

    “I would have killed for a cinema like yours to bunk off to, we used to volunteer to serve tea and biscuits at the salvation army to get out of team sports, and I believe we are now all the better rounded individuals for it.”


    Well not really. You could surely serve tea and biscuits without the assistance of the Salvation Army. Except you can’t play Rugby. This is surely less rounded.

  10. @oldnat

    At our school, there was none of this bunking off sports stuff that cost us the Empire etc.

    So consequently we just invited the girls to play Rugby with us. (At which they cheated really quite a bit!…)

  11. Carfrew

    We all had our versions of “contact sports” in our youth.

    I think I prefer mine to yours. :-)

  12. @oldnat

    Well you would. You weren’t trapped in a boarding school. We weren’t allowed out to Golf courses!! We were being trained up to serve the Empire! (Admittedly, they might not have caught up with the fact we no longer had much of an Empire, but that’s besides the point…)

  13. Carfrew

    “we no longer had much of an Empire”

    That’s no way to talk of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland (or Cornwall and most of the North of England either).

    In the broad scheme of things, it may not be much of an Empire, but by denigrating it, you are demeaning that which the Home Counties still have.

    Had you expressed such ideas at school, you would doubtless have deserved the severe caning that was due to you – and would have given enormous pleasure to the teacher administering it.

  14. @oldnat

    lol, your predilection for wasting your time on the manufactured slight is still in fine fettle I see.

    I didn’t denigrate it, I didn’t say it was bad, I just noted it had shrunk in size rather. And hence we no longer needed to train loads of people up for governing outposts thousands of miles away.

  15. At least 60s labour could stand up to the US and refuse to get involved in expensive long lasting foreign adventures.

  16. Carfrew

    I’m just sticking up for the rights of the Northern English to be considered more highly than “not much”.

    Surely the Home Counties should be glorifying the little that they have, rather than denigrating it?

    After all, the dumping of those far flung parts of the Empire just removed many of the darker skinned people that the glorious invasion of the Beaker people removed in an earlier phase?

  17. @oldnat

    Like I said, you have projected some grievance about perceived value of empire onto a simple observation about reduced employment prospects regarding far-flung outposts.

    Still, you seem to like arguing with yourself about such things…

  18. Trevor Warne,
    “Project Fear2.0 is being exposed for the nonsense it is ”

    it might be getting exposure, but your post didnt make any demolition points I could understand. The FT link didnt help because it is behind a pay wall.

    “Anyway, I think we can agree car companies along with every other manufacturer (including Airbus, Boeing) have been lowering costs by outsourcing for decades and in principle it has nothing to do with Brexit. JLR, etc now outsource a lot of IT to India, etc?”

    It is exactly this which Leave need to address to convince me. That outsourcing away from the UK had been happening while a member of the EU does not mean it will not get far worse outside. Leave need to explain why we no longer need the protection afforded by the EU, because I see the world on the brink of tearing up trade agrements, not making more of them. We have entered the era of big trading blocks and must be part of one.

    Leftie liberal,
    “So I can see Airbus wing production for European production lines being relocated to another European country, but not to China.”
    Or the entire businss moves to china, and they simply fly finishd planes back to Europe? Dont say it isnt possible, what happened to the british textile or shipping industries?

    Airbus is a prime example of a company which would not exist except for EU trade cooperation.

  19. Trevor Warne,
    ” It doesn’t necessarily require UK to be fully aligned to either US, EU or anyone else – it just requires mutual recognition within supply chains,”

    It has to be a system which works. It therefore has to have legal enforcement that the standards are met, and one system which determines what the standards are .It cannot be one where two conflicting standards are both accepted.

    So there has to be an arbitration body which picks one standard and both partners apply it. The phrasing of laws could be different, but they must create the same effect.

    We have such a system at the moment: its called the EU. It arbitrates between the member nations. Brexiteers simply want to reinvent the wheel and call it the square, but it still has to be round.

    “The point is Airbus decided to stay in UK ”

    The point is, we havnt left the EU! If Brexit happens, the effects will take decades to work through.

    The Monk,
    ” How many Tory rebels would risk a Corbyn government? ”
    The whole parliamentary block, if thats what it takes to save the tory party from Brexit. Its all about perception of the consequences of Brexit.

  20. So best case scenario –

    Labour support staying in Customs Union – Tories give up trying to make Cain & Abel reconcile, Corbyn gets in, nationalises what needs sorting, we have a chat with the EU and go back into single market with pre-existing nationalised utilities & transport (after a referendum)

    Job done.

  21. Danny

    Exactly. I really think those who advocate a totally independent future for the UK, outside of any customs arrangement with the EU, would spell out how their vision would work for the UK.

    The EU due to geography will continue to be the UK’s main trading partner for decades to come. We might as well admit this and if we want Brexit to happen, find the best way to protect UK interests.

    I keep hearing that after Brexit, the UK will trade more with non EU countries. Where is the evidence for this ? There is nothing stopping UK businesses trading anywhere in the world open for business. Germany does not seem to be held back by being in the EU.

    Are people supporting a hard Brexit hoping for cheap imported produce ? If so, have they explained their vision to people and the businesses they work for ? I doubt many UK producers will be happy seeing cheaper foreign produce take more of their business away from them. This might be why UK farmers seem to be less keen on Brexit than they were.

  22. Labour and Conservatives: cake

    There was a cake
    But no one ate it
    Then there was no cake
    And still no one had eaten it
    But everyone remembered it
    It didn’t look that nice
    It looked like it needed more chocolate
    It looked like it needed less sugar
    It tasted like…
    Who said that?
    No one answered
    They looked at each other
    with dark chocolately glances
    No one ate the cake
    It just vanished.
    But not without comment.

  23. NICKP

    Thank you for cheering me up this cold morning.

  24. R HUCKLE, that assumes leavers actually have a plan for Brexit. Whenever I hear any of them they seem to say things like of ‘course I’m not part of the negotiations but,we’ve a good negotiating team doing good work’ (a blatant lie) , rather than answer the question itself. They want their leave, but they want someone else to sort it out for them.

  25. I’m not going to bother with n=1 view on why we should be out of THE CU (and why cake+eat it “A” CU is a step towards BINO).

    Instead lets look at some polling. Questions have gernally focussed on ‘hindsight’ or ‘do-overs’ but YouGov did ask:

    “Britain can make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world, but there are customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union” 49%

    “There are no customs controls on trade between Britain and the European Union, but Britain is not able to make free trade deals with countries elsewhere in the world” 13%

    That is net +36 for May v Corbyn on Brexit plan (assuming Corbyn’s speech is as expected). High DKs and missing a lot of other detail for sure – wording is tricky!

    There was plurality for May’s plan in all the x-breaks. LAB +22, CON +60. Very high DKs in younger voters and LAB. I think it is fair to say a lot of people don’t understand the important differences between CU and custom arrangements.

  26. R Huckle – 7 a.m.

    ‘There is nothing stopping UK businesses trading anywhere in the world open for business. Germany does not seem to be held back by being in the EU.’

    I have yet to hear any Brexiteer respond to that very simple point.

    Some Brexiteers attempt to respond by pointing out that Germany is helped by a low value euro. But we had that opportunity (to join the euro) and decided against it – thus shooting ourselves in the foot.

    Self-inflicted wounds (in the defence of imperial pride) seems to be the chief aim of UK government policy – Labour or Conservative – over the past twenty years. And there seems little sign of any change, at least from the Conservatives.

  27. Trevor,
    You can do all the polling you like and obtain the result that people really really like the cakeist solutions. Of course they do! But if such is not an achievable outcome it will not help any government which fails to deliver what was promised to the voters. That is the government’s situation.

    Instead do a poll on what people think should happen to a government which promises cake but delivers porridge?

  28. I will however say this is a very important week for Brexit. EU are releasing some codified phase1 info on Weds and it will almost certainly be ‘strict’ and remove some of the fudge in the WA.

    It is probably fair to assume Corbyn has a smart team around him and has pre-empted this hence the speech today (in the same way Starmer pre-empted the transition phase).

    I’m hoping May’s speech offers some genuine, detailed plans (e.g. regional and sector based trade info) but not getting my hopes up!

    Anyway it seems that by the weekend we’ll have a situation where May is pushing for the most cake but with something ambitious where as Corbyn is making a bid for #10 with something that:
    – Leavers will see as a betrayal on the referendum (see Frank Field’s view)
    – Remainers will see as worse than full EU membership but possibly a step towards further concessions and maybe even a new ref and possibly revoke of A50
    – EU will love, BINO is perfect for them and ongoing chaos in UK will mean they can dictate terms to us.

    There is no certain outcome here but my best guess is that most CON-rebels will not want to go down a path that might eventually end up with a Corbyn govt (Soubs would almost certainly lose her seat, Clarke will retire, Grieve is abut the only safe one as he is in a very safe seat that was 50/50 on Brexit). LAB-rebels the other way might be very unhappy about the betrayal of the referendum result. Also, as I’ve said before, if it comes to it then CON would probably prefer a ref on terms to a GE. If they then lost the ref then I can’t see them surviving for long but it would give them a second bite at the cherry!

    Anyway, first things first, let’s see if Corbyn makes a strong commitment to “A” CU in his speech and sets of the chain of events in Westminster that we’ve needed to happen ever since the GE result. The days of ambiguity for May and Corbyn are almost over. I’d bet May survives this and comes out of it with a mostly united party but it is by no means certain.

  29. @ DANNY – did you see the wording in the poll!! Which one was the most cake?

    You may have noticed this is a polling forum! I’m sure in everyones own personal bubble their view sounds like the perfect solution and everyone (that they know) agrees with it. That is why we have polling!!

    I like this site because it gives me a window into Remain bubble and a sense of the genuine and not so genuine concerns they have. May is useless at PR as most of the genuine concerns could easily be dealt with and then we’d just have the not so genuine concerns of Best for Brussels and business lobby groups! Of course arch-LAB and arch-Remain will not believe anything May says but it is the marginal voter in the marginal seat that matters.

  30. To me, Brexit died when John Curtice’s exit poll came out.

    Labour from that point were on a long march to staying in the EU. It is not just the Customs Union, Corbyn sees maintaining present EU regulation as a positive demand. He wants a few changes around state aid and posted workers, but the EU could meet these by way of a protocol to the Treaties. France want rid of the Pisted Workers Directive.

    Blair said the EU would make an offer for us to return. And what we are seeing are the real Brexit negotiations.

    Now, May can not negotiate the on this basis. She has been dreadful trying yo carry forward a project she doesn’t believe in, now to be told to do it a way that contradicts the whole concept of Brexit… she can’t negotiate Brexit on the basis of maximising the retention of EU power in the U.K.

    Exactly what sort of Conservative Party is left by the end of the year is hard to imagine.

  31. Part of the problem with the brexit debate is this –

    1. Soft brexit or BINO is quite evidently worse than just staying in the EU – we would have the same oblisgations and restictions but would have no say in them – a clear surrender of soveringy for no gain.

    2. Hard brexit – whilst clearly coming with lots of risks and clear pain (worse trading terms with the EU, the NI border) it has a large amount of unpredictability and variable outcomes. Now, many people (including myself) believe that almost all of those variables and unknowns are likely to be negative – but it creates a space where the leavers can store their cake, their unicorns and their dreams of a free trading britainia reborn.

    Arguing for a soft brexit is disingenuous – it seems to me that the case for soft brexit is actually the case for reversing the referendum but it adherents are too scared/embarrassed to say so.

  32. Corbyn planning on describing the cakeiest cake yet:

    “Britain will need a bespoke relationship of its own. Labour would negotiate a new and strong relationship with the single market that includes full tariff-free access…we would also seek to negotiate protections, clarifications or exemptions, where necessary, in relation to privatisation and public service competition directives, state aid and procurement rules…prevent employers being able to import cheap agency labour from abroad to undercut existing pay and conditions.”

    CU membership (and according to Starmer, SM too), with a seat at the table on trade talks and freedom to ignore EU regulations on state aid, but without FoM. Makes the Tory plan sound like a dose of pragmatic realism.

  33. The EU will table the legal text of what was agreed in the Joint Report soon -perhaps this week or next. It will mean the DUP has a choice to make. So has the Conservative party.

    The Labour party???

  34. Sam think the could is the key word in Gardner’s statement and that is just stating the obvious if appropriate mechanisms are not in place.

    ”could lead to an “asymmetrical relationship” which would harm Britain’s trading interests.’

  35. EU will produce its legal text on what was agreed in the Joint Report. What it says about NI / Ireland will be interesting. Also, interesting will be what differences, if any, arise between the DUP and Mrs Mat.

    The Labour position is irrelevant. Cake

  36. Trevor Warne,
    “Soubs would almost certainly lose her seat”

    Indeed, aways difficult to do what you know to be the right thing when it will cost you personally….

    “did you see the wording in the poll!! Which one was the most cake”

    It doesnt really mention cake. That is rather the problem, the voter is invited to infer cake, so it becomes a question about what he understands the question to mean. The cake seems to be “britain can make free trade deals, ” and “Britain is not able to make free trade deals.”. Which one sounds best? I’d say the first, being able to do something is always better than not.

    But suppose instead we had asked, “Britan has the benefit of free trade agreements with 100 nations around the world”, or “Britain will trade on WTO terms without benefit of any special deals”. The leave option then souns less inviting, especialy when the other part of the original question is taken account of, and acces to existing trade deals is linked with easier trade to the EU, and having no deals is linked to no access to the EU either.

    As I said, it doesnt help the government to proceed on the basis of a promise which isnt going to be kept. Nor does it help the reputation of a polling company, unless what they want is a reputation for creating propaganda. (which of course can be an important aspect of the job. Customers might not want an accurate answer, but a useful one)

    “Corbyn planning on describing the cakeiest cake yet”

    Sounds like he is trying to scare hard brexit tories into running back to remain by painting a leave future they dont like?

    “The Labour party???”

    Gardiner seems to be making the second half of the argument, that remain is better than CU.

  37. JIMJAM

    Sorry, the second post is not a response to your reply to me. I thought the first post had not been picked up.

    Given the UK government’s red lines what is on offer from the EU Canada (dry or otherwise) and Norway will both involve customs controls.

    A peculiarity of the Norwegian option is that this process is streamlined, with much of the bureaucracy completed in advance. This makes the Norway model more attractive for UK. However, Norway is an EEA member and, according to the KPMG analysts, “there is no guarantee that the EU would offer the same streamlined procedures to a country outside the Single Market. EU customs law is currently directly applicable to the UK. Without it being so, the EU is simply less likely to accept that goods coming from the UK are of British origin, without evidence in advance”.

  38. Sam,
    tbf Gardner has been the biggest shadow cabinet obstacle to the position Labour is now adopting (more so than McDonnell who is more bothered about SM restrictions on
    He is still signalling unease now, talking about sovereignty of the HoC this morning apparently for example which I am domestic policy).
    taking to be about having no control on trade relationships if we pool our sovereignty with the EUs.

  39. JIMJAM

    Sorry, my second post this am was not a direct response to your reply to me. My attempt to clarify went into moderation for some reason.

  40. Sorry tidied up now.

    tbf Gardner has been the biggest shadow cabinet obstacle to the position Labour is now adopting (more so than McDonnell who is more bothered about SM restrictions on domestic policy)
    He is still signalling unease now, talking about sovereignty of the HoC this morning apparently for example which I am
    taking to be about having no control on trade relationships if we pool our sovereignty with the EUs.

  41. DANNY

    Starmer might be pushing for BINO, but Labours actions are far more about playing domestic politics and trying to put the government in an impossible situation than they are to do with their preferred Brexit outcome. If anything a defeat for the government over the CU would lead to us crashing out as they’d be legally bound to achieving an outcome which the EU will never accept. I suspect Corbyn et al wouldn’t really mind that so much though as they could paint the Tories as owning the mess and use it as an excuse for the sorts of ’emergency measures’ they’ve previously proposed, like the seizure of property.

  42. Garj,
    “Starmer might be pushing for BINO, but Labours actions are far more about playing domestic politics and trying to put the government in an impossible situation than they are to do with their preferred Brexit outcome”

    But of course! Parliament never wanted to leave the EU. If it wasnt for the politics they would all be telling us they will do it but they dont believe in it for a moment.

  43. @ DANNY / SAM / GARJ – I also remember Gardiner speaking about the 20Dec vote that related to CU where most LAB MPs abstained:

    Starmer set this in motion just after the Summer – tactically seemed clever but strategically was always going to end as picking a time to make a grab for #10. I wasn’t sure Corbyn would take the bait, I just wanted him to declare fully for one side or the other so we could get on with it.

    “A” CU has been set-up by likes of Soubs+Umunna as a stepping stone to attempting to Remain in EU (via unknown attempt to revoke A50). EU will love this option as they can drag us into BINO and get us to pay for a very bad deal. Hence I expect they will offer Corbyn as much indirect help as they can via harsh wording in the codifying of phase1 fudges and possibly likes of Tusk floating the “come back” option (A49 is completely stripped of veto and rebate ‘cake’!)

    Corbyn has been sent to Coventry to deliver the speech I see ;-)

    P.S. Dec20 vote was majority of 206! I doubt HoC has a majority in favour of BINO

  44. Talking of going back to the 1960s, there is a series running on television called “Back in Time for Tea”. It looks back at how life was lived through an ordinary Northern working class family decade by decade over the last century. It is centred around the food they ate, but also about life in general.

    The family includes two teenage girls. Their opinion is that the 1960s was probably the best decade to live in, certainly better than anything before, but also better than anything since.

    Maybe Turk has hit on Jeremy Corbyn’s appeal to the young.

  45. @Garj @Sam Cake

    Labour has managed to add a side of trifle and lashings of cream to the cake. It’s farcical.

    – In a customs union but free to make trade deals and not be a rule taker
    – Unrestricted access to the single market but no freedom of movement
    – Follow the regulations of the single market but rip up rules of state aid (thus destroying the principle of competitive fairness within that market)

    Barnier will need to take some valium and lie down after listening to that nonsense.

  46. @Crofty

    You posted last week for people to “not hold your breath” over Corbyn’s great new CU policy speech.

    How right you were, nobody could have held their breath, they were laughing too hard.

    I’m beginning to wonder if Corbyn, Mcdonnell, and Milne didn’t cook up this untenable position after pretending to agree with Starmer and co about staying in the CU. Surely Starmer would not have signed off on that speech! It makes Labour look ridiculous. The EU must have listened to that speech and realized that the Government’s position is positively sane compared to it.

  47. The SM stuff is just negotiating slack, getting as much scope for UK HMG and/or influence on future CU trade deals is the real action. Were Labour to be in a position to be negotiating of course.

  48. Looks like everyone is offering cake then…!

    I guess the risk here for all politicians is that the great voting public generally doesn’t react well to being confronted with facts; whether you look at the need to raise taxes to cover current expenditure, the issues confronting the NHS and social care, our diminishing defence capability, how we fund end-of-life care, etc., etc., parties trying to put forward a realistic solution get absolutely hammered when us punters go to the polls.

    We have been educated to need simple, easily articulated and preferably cost-free solutions to our problems – it’s a long-standing populist trick, but it is biting us in the bum now we have some serious problems to solve and no-one at the top capable of articulating any meaningful vision at all.


    Can’t remember if anyone has already pointed this out. If the London polls were replicated in a GE (admittedly, a very big IF) then IDS would lose his seat, and probably Boris too.

  50. JIM JAM

    There’s no equivocating about this, Labour have just declared a position that is far more cakey than even the Tories’ wildest suggestions. I suppose it’s not that surprising, given that their domestic platform is essentially free unicorns for everyone, to promise more or less the same thing in foreign policy, but you can’t dress this up as anything other than ridiculous. They’re probably hoping that the electorate is ignorant enough of the details to give them a pass, I imagine that any criticism from other parties or the media will just be brushed off as right-wing smears which show that the establishment is running scared of comrade Corbyn.

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