YouGov poll of London

YouGov have a new poll of London for Queen Mary University of London. Westminster voting intention in London stands are CON 33%, LAB 53%, LDEM 8% – little different from at the general election.

More interesting, given we are only a few months away from the London council elections in May, are local government voting intentions of CON 28%(+2), LAB 54%(+17), LDEM 11%(+1), GRN 4%(-6) UKIP 2%(-10). Changes are since the last London local elections which were back in 2014, on the same day as the European Parliament elections.

If these figures were to be reflected in May’s elections it would be an extremely strong performance for Labour, building upon 2014 results which were already pretty strong. Exactly how good it would be in terms of seats and councils gained depends on how the vote is distributed. The figures suggest a very different picture in inner and outer London. In inner London the poll suggests a swing of 13 points from Conservative to Labour – that would be enough for Labour to win the “flagship” Tory borough of Wandsworth (controlled by the Conservatives since 1978) and Westminster (controlled by the Conservatives since it was created in 1964). However, it wouldn’t necessarily net Labour a huge number of extra councillors since in many inner London boroughs like Islington, Lambeth and Lewisham Labour already hold the overwhelming majority of the councillors anyway.

In outer London, where the Conservatives are likely to be picking up votes that went to UKIP last time, the poll suggests a much smaller swing to Labour – something around four points. That would be enough for Labour to take Barnet, but the Conservatives would probably be able to hold onto other outer London councils where Labour are the main challengers. The battle between the Lib Dems and the Conservatives in South West London is, of course, difficult to discern from a Londonwide poll.

The full tabs for the London poll are here.

There was also a new GB poll out today from ICM for the Guardian. Topline figures there are CON 42%(+1), LAB 43%(+3), LDEM 7%(-1). Tabs are here.


626 Responses to “YouGov poll of London”

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  1. PTRP

    “I don’t think Corbyn’s speech is far from that of May. I think the tone is different but the substance is the same. I believe we end up leaving the EU to WTO because whilst we don’t want to in general we have put our political class in a position where that is the only real option available to them if we are not to have another referendum”

    WTO is no longer possible, the infrastructure needed isn’t in place and can’t be in place in time. As any poker player knows if you are going to bluff you need to put money on the table

  2. “that old rhyme, ‘you can lead a horse to water but you cannot make it drink’.”

    Isn’t it, ‘you can lead a horse to the sink, but you cannot make it draw there’?

  3. Huffpost lean heavy to Remain but this article covers the names of CON and LAB most likely rebels, FTPA, GE scenarios, etc to show the process(es) by which Corbyn might end up in #10, FTPA, GE, etc
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/brexit-labour-theresa-may_uk_5a94181ee4b01e9e56bdc85b

    It is a genuine risk and CON whips must know this!

  4. Chris

    I never said he was the devil but I do think he’s a close relation. He’s entirely motivated by self interest

  5. Interesting analysis of the Corbyn speech at the link below. Is it a cynical ploy or a strategic move?

    http://www.politics.co.uk/comment-analysis/2018/02/26/labour-s-new-brexit-policy-choose-your-own-adventure

  6. Corbyn had to make a stand on brexit otherwise there was a risk of voters seeping to Lib Dems or a new centre party. Brexit was the one issue that kept a lot of centrist pro EU voters supporting Labour at the last election.

    It is also good to differentiate causing problems for the Tories in Parliament making government fall more likely.

    Also if the Tories did get there way with a harder brexit and people dont like it, the Conservatives will get the blame and they cannot say that Labour backed it in parliament and are equally to blame.

  7. @WB

    Following the Iain M Banks thing, thought you might be interested in this…

    “Amazon is Turning Iain M. Banks’ Iconic Culture Books Into a TV Series
    By James Whitbrook on 22 Feb 2018 at 4:30PM

    Amazon’s been making some major genre plays in its original programming recently, but its latest grab is one of its grandest plans yet: An adaptation of Iain M. Banks’ iconic scifi saga, the Culture Series, starting off with Consider Phlebas.

    Announced today by Amazon, the adaptation of Phlebas—the novel that introduced readers to the ginormous utopian future society known as the Culture, and their interactions with a galaxy that is at times hostile to their idealistic approach—will be written by Dennis Kelly and produced by Plan B Entertainment, with the late Banks’ estate acting as an executive producer.

    Happy to announce that Amazon Studios is adapting Iain M. Banks’ amazing Culture series — a huge personal favorite — as a TV series. Can’t wait! https://t.co/wgEmv65Pm3 pic.twitter.com/NhCGUyRt2L

    — Jeff Bezos (@JeffBezos) 21 February 2018
    Consider Phlebas is set during a time of war for the Culture. It’s actually told from the perspective of an operative of the faction they’re warring against—the religious Idiran Empire—who are tasked with attempting to retrieve the superintelligent mind of a Culture warship, crash-landed on a planet considered off-limits to either side of the interstellar war.

    The series will air exclusively through Amazon’s Prime Video service, but no release date has been officially announced yet. We’ll bring you more about Amazon’s plans for the Culture series when we learn them. [EW]”

  8. I don’t think it impossible, or even unlikely, that Corbyn & Labour could get a better deal over the Customs Union than the Tories. Sometimes just not calling the other side names is enough.

  9. @PRINCESS RACHEL

    I am not sure that May is really in control here. The ending of the phase one kind of shows the problem she has. She is relying on the EU to give her a deal that she can take back to parliament that will be acceptable but the EU cannot know what deal will be acceptable we have to say it and then negotiate from there. We are still negotiating with ourselves at this juncture which is part of the problem. Noone seems to be able to get agreement that suit 60% of the population and I think it will need that to stop damaging fractures in the nation.

    As I have said it is like Iraq, the allure of the promise seemed to blind us to the practicalities of that promise

    As to Change. I think the EU is his only in for prominence take that away and he is not a speaker on social issues like that of Lammy nor is he prominent in any other sphere of Labour policy be it of the left or the right. Take away brexit and he is a non entity. What is worrying is that most of the progress group appear not to be able to come up with policy these days. Haringey council is pretty much a watershed moment it seems it is being sold as a momentum coup but as many in London know it is more complex than that and also more damning on the now ex leader than people have really assessed what has been interesting is that she was able to get an interview on national TV but those whom replaced her have not had anywhere near the prominence.

  10. Colin

    You are correct. JC considers Brexit a distraction.

    What has to be added: he plays the political card well, but also that his consideration is not particularly important as to Brexit. In any given situation when he is in the position on this; he would be subject to a completely different set of social processes.

  11. Will Mrs May start erasing some of her red lines as a result of Corbyn’s speech and her own instincts? Fwiw, I think she is stuck, immovable.

    The EU may have to offer her a take it or leave it deal.

  12. CARFREW @ ALEC

    It possibly boils down to why Labour Leavers voted to leave.

    The BES info tweet which ANALYST kindly posted above suggests that the idea that Labour leavers are likely to stop supporting the party, even in the case of a more pronounced pro-EU shift on Brexit, as ANALYST aptly put it. The tables in the tweet are well worth a look.

  13. Hello

    A long time since I was on here…just testing if my post makes it

  14. CARFREW @ ALEC

    Oooops.

    Missed the word DEBUNKS from the beginning of the ANALYST quote.

    Sorry about that.

  15. @ SAM – good analysis in your link. The tricky thing for Corbyn is he might well be taken further down the ‘strategic’ path even if it was just a ‘cynical tactic’. LAB-Remain will not be satisfied with the new/clarified policy as a ‘final resting point’ against a ticking clock. Does he go further down the Primrose path?

    Also how do EC/EU27 respond. I think it is fair to say they would see their most desirable outcome more likely with Corbyn in #10 than May – do they take advantage of the situation? NI (via clause 49 in WA) is the way for them to dictate a BINO/Turkey outcome and if they play it carefully they can certainly highlight some of the points made in the article to show Corbyn’s ‘red lines’ can be seen as pink (i’d certainly agree that we’ve never pushed our luck with bending EU ‘rules’ in the same way many others of the 28 have!)

    If we continue to show we can not decide for ourselves then the EC/EU27 will start deciding for us – from March! We have Barnier’s staircase – have Corbyn and CON-Remain rebels shown them that a Turkey outcome is what we want?!?

  16. This is the book adaption I am looking forward to!

    http://ew.com/movies/2017/12/18/mortal-engines-trailer-peter-jackson/

    Peter.

  17. An error has been pointed out to me from the Huffpost link i posted earlier. Only 8 CON rebels have signed the rebel CU clause and since Corbyn’s speech at least two of those have confirmed a nasty dose of cold feet!

    Apologies for not checking my sources.

    It doesn’t change the fact that May needs to get this vote done and dusted so we can move on and hopefully EC/EU27 will start taking us seriously! It does however, show May has even less to fear than I had thought – she will win this vote.

    I should have known better than to trust fake news in Remain press!

  18. @PRICESS RACHEL

    the last paragraph should read as to Chukka, spellcorrecting going overboard on my phone

    @TREVOR WARNE

    The lint on political home from SAM is a very nuanced piece. depending on what you believe, either Corbyn want brexits or does not. it is a simple question, you believe he is a brexiteer and other believe he is not. Having not only campaigned for Remain and voted for remain but when given the chance to say whether he would do it again he was rather clear and said yes (so either he lied, is completely unprincipled or he is telling the truth)

    In many ways however Labour leavers are different to Tory leavers and the idea of a complete crossover is interesting. As the tweet from above regarding the BES seems to suggest.

    The bottom line is that for me Corbyn understand that both strategically he has to be more remain than May and he cannot lose his remain or leave voters that he has won and he needs more of them to win power. If he was full on remain it would be a risk but slowly he will move as the situation allows it is that which is frustrating to many but something I can see is the only way to insure Labours continued success

    personally I think he is playing a blinder, it reminds me of the fact that leave played a blinder for the referendum and Corbyn played a blinder in the GE2017. Now whether he is your preferred candidate or not that is an entirely different issue.

  19. @BBZ

    “The BES info tweet which ANALYST kindly posted above suggests that the idea that Labour leavers are likely to stop supporting the party, even in the case of a more pronounced pro-EU shift on Brexit, as ANALYST aptly put it. The tables in the tweet are well worth a look.”

    ———

    Yes but in the tweets it shows why they aren’t as fussed about the EU: they are, like I said, more concerned about things like Housing etc.

    So like I said, it makes sense for Corbyn to play to those things. Plus, it’s not all about the voters who are sticking with the party, but those Leavers who switched away from Labour.

  20. “The lint on political home from SAM is a very nuanced piece. depending on what you believe, either Corbyn want brexits or does not.”

    ——–

    Or it’s possible he doesn’t really care about Brexit. If he cares more about jobs, wages, rent costs, bills etc. and if we can negotiate a form of Brexit* that can help with those then good, and if not so be it.

    * or indeed a subsequent Bre-entry…

  21. NuPhred

  22. TREVORWARNE

    Trevor, I think the same way as PTRP. the EU will not respond to the Corbyn speech except perhaps indirectly. The EU will not introduce it into negotiations. Instead, the EU will deal, so far as it can, with Mrs May’s negotiating position which I think is likely to disappear soon.

  23. @TREVOR WARNE

    it is interesting that the EU involvement in the referendum and in terms of the election was rather muted considering the information that was being thrown around. How the UK brings it negotiation position to the table is of no concern of the EU as I have pointed out to you before and you have argued that the EU are bullies. Then if we take your view of the EU why would the EU particularly care what Corbyn thinks he going to get the same deal as May is he not.

    Again I point to the Swiss and their referendum on immigration, they were given a choice in the end which was more important. In the end the government made the decision that their immigration rules did not need stop FoM. The UK will get a deal but as SAM’s link points out Labour is now refashioning the EU rules as something new. As many have pointed out I don’t think there is needs to be a change in EU rules just a change in application of the said rules in the UK.

    The ultimate point is that the same arguments could be made about May and her red lines becoming pink. In the end we will be in the EU orbit because it make perfect sense to be there and as the bigger party they will set the terms. As most ‘bullies’ do.

  24. @Danny
    “That would appear to mean they plan to stay in the EU?”

    They wish. No more all expenses trips on Eurostar to Brussels and beyond for Sir Humphrey.

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