YouGov’s regular voting intention poll this week has topline figures of CON 40%(-3), LAB 41%(+2), LDEM 8%(nc). Fieldwork was on Monday and Tuesday and changes are since last week. Full tabs are here. The movement towards Labour here is likely to be just a reversion to the mean after an unusual outlier last week. As ever, one shouldn’t put too much weight on unusual movement in voting intention polls when there is no obvious reason to expect a change, more often than not they’ll turn out to just to random sample variation.

And, for the benefit of the weird 500 post mumsnet thread about why Labour are losing women, based on a crossbreak in last week’s poll than showed Labour dropping six points among women, Labour are back up by five points among women this week. Demographic crossbreaks in polls have smaller samples, hence are more volatile and can bounce about a lot from poll to poll, often producing strange things. In something as subtle as voting intention where a difference of a few points can change the picture completely the crossbreaks in individual polls are best just ignored. If you really want to look at the demographic breakdown of voting intention, look for trends across a large number of polls over a period of time and look for consistent change – don’t jump on a figure in a single poll that fits a convenient narrative.


1,008 Responses to “Latest YouGov poll is back to normality – CON 40%, LAB 41%, LDEM 8%”

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  1. “Very strong words from Andrew Neil, (and what ever you say about Neil he is not a natural Corbyn supporter) absolutely scathing in his condemnation of the Conservative lies in trying to smear Corbyn”

    ——-

    But does Neil know about the motorbike?

  2. @TW “are you referring to the FTPA?”

    Apologies I should have been clearer, but yes, I had in mind the FTPA and read your reference to May making approval of her eventual deal “a confidence issue” as a suggestion that she could do something like what Major did over Maastricht, with a hybrid motion of confidence/ approval.

    It is the FTPA that makes such a hybrid motion no longer possible (or more strictly, as I see no reason why such a hybrid motion could not be tabled, no longer effective as the first step towards bringing about an early dissolution since it fails to use the prescribed wording).

    So May can no longer tie the two issues unseverably together in the same way. She cannot stop the Tory rebels voting one way on the substantive issue and the other way on the confidence issue.

  3. The other thing is the loss of trust in newspapers – how many younger would-be readers will ever go to the Times, Telegraph or (laugh) Mail or the Sun to get information?

    I think Williamson needs to apologise or resign. But you watch him wriggle.

    I’d have more respect if even ONE Tory apologised for this.

  4. CARFREW
    I suppose you might have been able to get one on the black market with forged papers. If Jeremy actually did that he’d be my HERO!
    Of course, he could even have done it twice, once all on his own in Czechoslovakia before setting off unmonitored to your the country and once with Diane in East Germany. I don’t believe he rode a bike in Venezuela when he went to celebrate with Chavez in 2012 but I might be wrong.
    :)

  5. DAVID COLBY

    Individual travelling from the West in Eastern Europe was pretty common from the 1960s with the exception of the Soviet Union.

    It was also allowed in the GDR, but it was trickier, this split German families tended to meet in Hungary or Czechoslovakia.

  6. LASZLO
    I agree Czechoslovakia was easier than the GDR. I went to all these places at the time, and to East Berlin, ‘Leningrad’ and Moscow. I used to work a lot with NOVISTI which I think you’re probably familiar with.

  7. @David Colby

    Really? They were that rare?? Not even the well-known CZ?

    .???

  8. @NickP

    “The other thing is the loss of trust in newspapers – how many younger would-be readers will ever go to the Times, Telegraph or (laugh) Mail or the Sun to get information?”

    ——–

    Oh, you still have to go there to see what household economics is being fed boomers, the latest attack angles on immigration etc.

    But a while back I cited some stuff showing the younger people get their news from a broader range of sources, and the boomers are more polarised as a result.

  9. @Neil J

    Thank you for posting the link to Andrew Neil on DP demolishing the feeble attempts by Tory MPs to smear Corbyn . What a hoot. I know some of our Conservative brethren rate Mr Neil. I’d love to know how they found his performance.

  10. NICK P

    Spot on Nick. Add the dire Daily Express to the list. Young voters won’t be interested. I think Labour need to hop it back very hard and demand resignations. Williamson had a lot to answer for here.

  11. @Neil J
    No time to read the Brexit stuff — but thanks for this link. Very entertaining. Baker is of course the muppet who had to apologise to the House for claiming civil servants were sabotaging Brexit. The calibre of these ministers . . .

  12. CARFREW
    Ask LASZLO I’m in moderation for daring to disagree

  13. NickP @6:51 am

    “My nationalism? hmmmm”

    Apologies if I got that wrong. I just assumed that you wanted the UK to be a sovereign state, free to join other states in a union, or leave such a union if that seemed the best way forward, and that you would want the constitutional arrangements to be of maximum benefit to all its citizens.

    That’s my kind of “nationalism” for Scotland.

    Maybe you would prefer some other status for all, or some, parts.

    “While I can accept that a lot of Scots got disillusioned by first Thatcher then Blair … does that apply to you? Were you Labour voter before that?”

    Not that it particularly matters, but since you ask ….

    Voter? I was a SLab member. Prior to that, I was a member of the Scottish Liberal Party as a teenager, because their policy of a Federal UK seemed likely to lead to better governance for Scotland.

    When I realised that the Liberals in England had no real wish to pursue Federalism, I joined the SNP in recognition that only SNP votes would persuade a Westminster Labour Government to deliver some self-government.

    I wasn’t “disillusioned” by Thatcher. I despised every single thing she stood for and advocated.

    As Donald Dewar moved SLab more strongly towards devolution, I joined them to support that policy, as well as the then priority being to end Tory rule.

    Once the Scottish Parliament had been created, I left active politics for a while until the Iraq war demonstrated that leaving foreign policy in Westminster’s hands would never benefit Scotland – so I rejoined the SNP.

    My politics has always been focussed on three issues – social and economic equality : Self-government for Scotland : support for European integration.

    At different times, three different parties seemed most likely to prioritise these concerns, so I joined them, and worked for them.

    Sorry for the long story of my personal political journey – but it’s not very dissimilar (other than the Liberal bit) from many folk in the SNP.

    I only relate it, because of what appeared to be a total misunderstanding by you of what “nationalism” is in Scotland (and in many other places as well).

    It’s not about “fervour”, it’s about finding the best structures for governance, and that’s a rather rational process – hence why Davwel and I can find a huge amount of common ground..

  14. the czech spy story does seem very very desperate. The attaks about meetings with Sein Fein and hezbellah didn’t work – why do they think that him having a perfectly legitimate meeting with someone he assumed to be czech diplomat 35 years ago going to cut any ice?
    The only way it could have any legs is if there was clear evidence that Corbyn was spy – but their is zero evidence for that accusation and their attempts to infer it that have resulted in the threat of legal action and widespread ridicule.
    I mean, jimmy saville was a regular guest at the thatcher household in this period – if we’re going down the who was having tea with whom route.

  15. well that’s interesting, Old Nat.

    Nothing ol’ Jez can do to tempt you back?

  16. LASZLO
    I agree that Czechoslovakia was easier. I worked a lot with NOVOSTI and was in the GDR, Moscow, East Berlin, ‘Leningrad’ etc.(not alone on a motorbike though, I wasn’t ‘connected’ enough).

  17. @David Colby

    “Ask LASZLO I’m in moderation for daring to disagree”

    ——–

    Disagree with what? I only asked you a question?

  18. @ Valerie

    “What a hoot.”

    Yep, very much enjoyed that, but probably not as much as Andrew Neil did. Who’d be a politician? I love the way he also destroyed the other guy when he tried to interrupt. “Butt out mate, I’m better at this than you.” (More or less.)

    It’s difficult to believe there is any truth in this given that threats of litigation are already in the air. You don’t do that unless you’re very sure of where it’s going to end up.

  19. Also, I thought Laszlo had a more Hungarian take on things, rather than Czech, but still, he’s bound to know a lot more than me about it, so…

  20. Nick P

    Much of what Corbyn is suggesting for England is already in place in Scotland.

    He has already shown total ignorance of matters here, by saying “Could you have a separate economic and legal system in different parts of the UK?”

    Since there has never been a single legal system in the UK, his ignorance is rather shocking.

    Scotland also voted heavily for the UK to remain in the EU, so his dissimulation on the issue means that I wouldn’t trust him to slice a nut roast.

    So, I’m afraid that Corbyn is just a narrowly informed poseur as far as Scotland is concerned.

  21. @Laszlo

    We need your help!!

    Apparently Mr Colby has been barred from talking about Commie-era motorcycles. I mean, I know it’s a highly inflammatory topic, but if we’re careful and avoid mentioning food, the BBC, that event on Wednesday afternoons, etc., we should be ok.

    Anyway, the burning issue is: was it really that hard to get hold of a motorbike in Czechoslovakia in the Soviet era?

  22. Looks like the slow collapse of UKIP is possibly providing a slight boost to Tory figures. Probably based on the fact that the far right of the Tory party is making a lot of noise at the moment.
    At present rates UKIP will be behind the Greens in terms of vote % by May.

  23. “So, I’m afraid that Corbyn is just a narrowly informed poseur as far as Scotland is concerned.”

    Possibly, but over 700,00 voted for him in 2017.

  24. CARFREW
    It seems I’m getting through again, though probably not to you.
    You needed to apply to the authorities to buy something like a motorbike, it might take years (unless you could bribe someone). Do you think you just walked into a motorbike store on one of the fabulous shopping streets of Prague and picked out a color? Do you think there was a CHOICE of colours? Or even such a shop?

    I know you think this is hilarious, but I have a friend who escaped from east Germany as a child, hidden in the false floors of their relatives’ cars, who didn’t see his parents for decades after that. So, while I do NOT think Jeremy is a spy, I do think it highly insensitive of him to have chosen to breeze around on his bike (if he ever managed to do this) touring a country which was, after the Prague Spring essentially occupied and suffering under the Russian jackboot.

  25. So a quarter of Ruth Davidson’s Conservatives MPs are now backing the ERG ‘s ultra hard Brexit stance against Ruth Davidson’s policy. So much for the Scottish Tory MPs acting as a bloc in representing Scotland’s interests.

  26. david colby

    Your attempt to find things to condemn Corbyn for are getting a bit embarrassing now.

    Why don’t you give it a rest?

  27. @nickp

    “Possibly, but over 700,00 voted for him in 2017.”

    Did they or did they vote for SLab policies which Corbyn has distanced himself from? e.g. on income tax and constitutional reform. And of course some of those 700000 were Tories voting tactically against the SNP.

  28. hireton

    That’s true. And they might have been just voting for a prospective MP they liked.

    I stand corrected,

  29. Carfrew

    While I may have a Hungarian bias, I have travelled around in the GDR, Chechoslovakia, Poland, Bulgaria, Romania and even in the Soviet Union (special privilege for building some steelwork in Kazakhstan) – as I wrote earlier it wasn’t a problem to travel around with the exception of the Soviet Union (internal passport system) and GDR (too many agents about).

    As to motorcycles – I met a bunch of British youngsters in 1984 in Poland in a student hostel in Krakow (all with motorcycles). But we were all more interested in the bison grass vodka than how they had it.

    Czechoslovakia produced their own motorcycles – they were considered ok, but lower quality than the GDR ones (MZ series), but definitely better than the Bulgarian one (Balkan).

    I don’t know, but I have a strong feeling that Corbyn probably brought his motorcycle from the UK (there is actually a cycle route from London to Athens on Google maps – I know they are different means of transport, just mentioning it), as hiring it would have been a challenge.

    Both the GDR and Czechoslovakia have a long tradition of country road motorcycling. :-)

  30. @Nick P

    The other thing is the loss of trust in newspapers – how many younger would-be readers will ever go to the Times, Telegraph or (laugh) Mail or the Sun to get information?

    I suspect the days of younger people buying papers has virtually gone anyway. I don’t know the figures, but I would imagine most young people go to social media and the like for news (and probably won’t pay either).

    I also suspect youngsters even now don’t trust the papers (a quite logical thing in my mind..I don’t trust them much either!)

  31. @ Peterw – thanks, gridlock in Hoc is a risk for sure and default to crashing out to wto has concerned me since the ge result. I don’t see there being enough time for the democratic process to resolve the gridlock issues if/when they arise (guess autumn)

    @ Alec – payments do indeed have triggers and timings as I posted earlier (3:31pm). C96 covers the conditions of both the future relationship and transitional arrangements. Maybe reread c96 as you’ve already forgotten it… again :)
    You seem to be digging ever deeper into your own circle of treacle. I’ve thrown you get out of jail free cards with c49 and the risk of crashing out to wto but by all means keep digging or maybe just wait to see what happens (a slow and frustrating wait I admit)

  32. LASZLO
    Here’s WIKI on the GDR

    The border could be crossed legally only through a limited number of air, road, rail and river routes. Travellers to and from Denmark, Sweden, Poland and Czechoslovakia could also pass through East Germany. Access rights for non-Germans were otherwise very restricted. Foreigners had to submit an itinerary to the East German state tourist office up to nine weeks in advance, paying booking fees and registering with the local police on arrival, purchasing fuel only from specially approved petrol stations and spending a prescribed minimum of money each day.[3] They were required to stay in state-owned “Interhotels”,

    I’ll stop posting now as NICKP thinks that would be much better for everyone.

  33. Apparently
    according to The Staggers from last year, JC rode across Western Europe to Czechoslovakia on his own motorcycle ! This came up because of his reminiscing about wearing leathers, TM was in the news last year cos of her pricey leather trousers.

  34. Nick P

    I am quite prepared to believe that a number of voters in Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill voted for Hugh Gaffney because they liked him and agreed with his societal perspective.

  35. Actually I thought Andrew Neil could have been harder on Baker.

  36. OLDNAT

    The abstract for this bit of research went into moderation so this time I’ll just give the link. It is a piece about political systems and good health. I suspect you have the answer already.

    http://www.aleciashepherd.com/writings/articles/other/The%20political%20context%20of%20social%20inequalities%20and%20health.pdf

  37. All this talk of European motorcycling has reminded me of one of the daftest films ever: Girl on a motorcycle, with Marianne Faithfull and Alain Delon.

    The thought occurs as to what make of bike Corbyn had, let’s hope for his sake it was a Triumph or a Norton…you can see the headlines now: “Unpatriotic [email protected] rode to betray U.K. on a Suzuki”.

  38. crofty

    Baker kept his head well, but you could see the stunned look in his eyes. If their collective behaviour hadn’t been so vile, it really would have been Laugh Out Loud.

  39. Nick

    I would have forced an answer from him. By repeatedly saying “I don’t know one way or the other” he was as culpable as all the others in my view.

  40. Sam

    Thanks for the link.

    Actually, it would seem odd for anyone to think that health and economic inequalities weren’t linked to political decisions.

    I can understand that some folk might be happy for such inequalities to remain or increase, because they think it a “price worth paying” to achieve things they consider more important.

    It’s a bit like US Republicans saying prayers because it’s sad that students are wiped out in shootings – but that’s a price worth paying for the freedom to have assault rifles.

    As Tom Devine said of the 2016 report on the “Glasgow Effect” –

    “However, the conclusions are chilling. They reveal that to a considerable extent the key causes were in the realms of public policy, housing, overspill initiatives and urban regeneration. In other words, higher death rates could have been avoided if different decisions had been made by politicians and planners at the time. Indeed, a stark warning for the future.”

    Recently, I had a chat with an SNP SPAD who was critical of Sturgeon’s education and child welfare policies because they wouldn’t have an effect within the electoral cycle.

    After banging my head off the table, I pointed out that that was the whole bloody point! Making changes in societal provision takes a long time, and is a damn sight more important than electoral cycles.

  41. Nick

    I would have forced an answer from him. By repeatedly saying “I don’t know one way or the other” he was as culpable as all the others in my view.

    Similarly, repeating “We have a free press in this country” was incredibly weak when you consider whether that means they should therefore be permitted – indeed, applauded – for printing stories without any factual basis.

  42. @David Colby

    “Do you think you just walked into a motorbike store on one of the fabulous shopping streets of Prague and picked out a color? Do you think there was a CHOICE of colours? Or even such a shop?”

    ———

    This is a hopeless attempt at a diversion. I didn’t say anything about the range of colours. I just asked about how hard it was to get a bike.

  43. DAVID COLBY

    @” Apparently the entire OXFAM scandal was made up by Rupert Murdoch. I know that’s true because I read it on UKPR”

    I read it too-but the main knee twitcher in that instance has been notably quiet on the issue ever since.

    The knees must be at breaking point over old Corby :-)

  44. @David Colby

    “I know you think this is hilarious, but I have a friend who escaped from east Germany as a child, hidden in the false floors of their relatives’ cars, who didn’t see his parents for decades after that.”

    ———–

    Wow, another nice try at a diversion, this one much more unpleasant. No, I do not think the impact of the iron curtain ‘hilarious’, I havent said anything about that, but your convolutions over the simple issue of buying a bike are very mildly so.

    You weren’t talking about someone trapped under false floors, you were slagging Corbyn for riding a bike, try and remember that.

  45. New thread on the London YouGov

  46. @Laszlo

    “Czechoslovakia produced their own motorcycles – they were considered ok, but lower quality than the GDR ones (MZ series), but definitely better than the Bulgarian one (Balkan).”

    ———–

    Yes, but David C. is going more along the lines that owning them or using them was somehow prohibited.

  47. David Colby

    ” Foreigners had to submit an itinerary to the East German state tourist office up to nine weeks in advance, paying booking fees and registering with the local police on arrival, purchasing fuel only from specially approved petrol stations and spending a prescribed minimum of money each day.[3] They were required to stay in state-owned “Interhotels”, ”

    I think Nick P is right, but I have to answer.

    This Wiki entry is nonsense. I travelled around in GDR without doing any of this in 1984, and I was a foreigner. I stayed in private apartments, various hotels, campsites, what have you. I even spent one night in the police station as the local hotel was closed in a village.

    But they certainly kept a tab on you. Hence my emphasis on differentiating the GDR from other East-European countries (where the surveillance was looser).

  48. @old nat
    “It’s a bit like US Republicans saying prayers because it’s sad that students are wiped out in shootings – but that’s a price worth paying for the freedom to have assault rifles.”

    It’s actually quite difficult to own an assault rifle in the US and they aren’t usually what is used in these attacks. This sort of flagrant misrepresentation is largely what prevents any meaningful discussion on US gun ownership. The pro gun rights activists know that the ‘antis’ want to take their guns and don’t value the 2nd amendment so they resist any change as the thin end of the wedge it almost certainly is. You only have to look at the way firearms have been irreversibly taken from ordinary citizens, and only from the ordinary citizens, in Europe to see what they fear.

    You don’t have to be a redneck to be in favour of an armed citizenry either. This article gives some thought provoking left wing arguments for gun rights and is well worth a read.
    https://www.counterpunch.org/2017/10/12/the-rifle-on-the-wall-a-left-argument-for-gun-rights/

    For those who can’t be bothered to read the article ask yourself these questions.

    1. Does a state ever abuse its power?
    2. Who is it that is being disarmed?
    3. Who do you expect to protect you?

    I think with a little thought you’ll see this is a much more complex issue than guns = bad.

  49. alberto

    and yet you yanks keep shooting each other to pieces at a rate 10 times that of any other country

    But at least you can resist arrest

  50. Nice to know you didn’t read the article or my post properly. You’ll understand that I don’t find your ignorance convincing.

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