ICM’s regular poll for the Guardian is out today and has topline voting intention figures of CON 41%(nc), LAB 40%(-1), LDEM 8%(+1). Fieldwork ws Friday to Sunday and changes are from the large ICM poll in mid-January. Tabs are here.

The latest Survation poll meanwhile has topline figures of CON 40%(+3), LAB 43%(-2), LDEM 8%(+2). Fieldwork was the previous weekend, and changes are since the start of December. While Labour’s lead has fallen away since the previous poll, I suspect this is largely a reversion to the mean after an unusual poll last time. Full tabs are here.

Survation also ask how people would vote in a second referendum on EU membership (and unlike some other polls that ask this question, weight it by likelihood to vote!). In the latest poll the figures are Remain 51%, Leave 49%.


298 Responses to “Latest ICM and Survation voting intentions”

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  1. Polls strangely untouched by all the sound and fury it seems.

  2. While this set of questions from 38 degrees in the Survation Scottish poll don’t include VI, they do include questions on the Scottish Budget tax proposals.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/38-Degrees-Final-Tables.pdf

    The Times reported some time ago that YG had also asked about these, but I can’t find the tables for that question on the YG site.

    Have I missed it, or is someone at YG not doing their job?

  3. OldNat

    The fieldwork dates and sample size of the 38 Degrees are the same as that done for the Record which does have all the various Scottish VIs:

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/Final-Daily-Record-Tables-240118SKVN-1c0d2h9.pdf

    One of the good things abour Survation is, as Anthony notes, they ask LTV. As important they ask separately for each election or referendum, unlike some others who havve been known to ask once for Westminster and apply that filter to all other questions. But if you look at the LTV = 10 figures, they differ:

    Westminster 67% (WNV = 5%)

    Independence Ref 79% (WNV = 4%)

    Holyrood 69% (WNV = 4%)

    EU Referendum 71% (WNV = 9%)

  4. “Polls strangely untouched by all the sound and fury it seems.”

    ——–

    The sound and fury doesn’t seem to leave anyone the wiser…

  5. NEIL A

    “Polls strangely untouched by all the sound and fury it seems.”

    Yes – probably signify nothing.

  6. Good Evening all from a cold Bournemouth East.

    CROFTY.
    Probably not wise to say the Remain and Brexit people are telling tales told by an idiot.

  7. Chris.

    I didn’t.

    That was Shakespeare you’re thinking of.

    [We often get mistook because of our similar writing styles/]

  8. Just been watching the falcon heavy launch and the booster rockets landing upright wow is all I can say.

  9. Yup, you’ve got to hand it to Mr Musk. He may be 70% showman, but the 30% “High Achiever” mixed in is something to behold.

    He sometimes seems like he’s the true “Leader of the Free World”. I just hope his economic bubble doesn’t burst on him any time soon.

  10. Roger Mexico

    “The fieldwork dates and sample size of the 38 Degrees are the same as that done for the Record which does have all the various Scottish VIs:”

    Yep! That’s why I referred to “set of questions from 38 degrees in the Survation Scottish poll”.

    It’s standard practice for pollsters to ask questions from different clients in the same poll, but report them separately, as BPC rules don’t allow release of data until the client has published a report on them (as I’m sure you know, but those fairly new to polling practice may not).

    Thanks for the LTV data, though.

    It’s not clear what they mean, however, since Westminster & EUref would be on one electoral register, but Holyrood and indyref would be on a different one.

  11. Roger Mexico

    The Indy/Devo Max/ Status Quo question that I referred to last night was from yet another Survation client – but clearly from the same poll.

  12. The polls have been more or less static now since the GE. I can’t remember a similar situation happening in the past lasting so long after a GE. It’s almost as if Brexit = Political Aspic.

  13. YouGov survey

    https://yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/results#/survey/1ac810a5-0a5f-11e8-86d8-79543c6f082c/question/795870f3-0a5f-11e8-953c-5d05c0f7be40/gender

    “How confident do you feel in your understanding of what a customs union is? ”

    All 9% : Men 15% : Women 4%

    Given that the figures for the UK Cabinet might show that even fewer than 9% are very confident that they understand a CU, these are problematic numbers.

  14. Those numbers are for “very confident”

  15. Was at the works Xmas do (pubs don’t have Xmas dos in their busy period, obviously) was talking to a woman who didn’t know what brexit was. I was a bit reluctant to ruin her life by explaining brexit, sometimes ignorance is bliss.

  16. Was at the works Xmas do (pubs don’t have Xmas dos in their busy period, obviously) was talking to a woman who didn’t know what brexit was. I was a bit reluctant to ruin her life by explaining brexit, sometimes ignorance is bliss.

  17. Was at the works Xmas do (pubs don’t have Xmas dos in their busy period, obviously) was talking to a woman who didn’t know what brexit was. I was a bit reluctant to ruin her life by explaining brexit, sometimes ignorance is bliss.

  18. Seachange

    The dreaded polldrums, a term coined by amberstar in the middle of Cameron’s first term when nothing moved the polls

  19. Seachange

    The dreaded polldrums, a term coined by amberstar in the middle of Cameron’s first term when nothing moved the polls

  20. Seachange

    The dreaded polldrums, a term coined by amberstar in the middle of Cameron’s first term when nothing moved the polls

  21. Sorry about all the multiple posting

  22. @TURK
    “ust been watching the falcon heavy launch and the booster rockets landing upright wow is all I can say.”

    ———–

    Yes, to see them landing together in sync was a definite wow moment. Shame about the centre core not making it back to the drone ship. I think Musk said they ran out of the chemical to reignite the engines for landing so only the centre engine ignited…

  23. @NEIL A

    “yup, you’ve got to hand it to Mr Musk. He may be 70% showman, but the 30% “High Achiever” mixed in is something to behold.”

    ——–

    He’s a systems guy who’s really good at zoning in on what really matters. Kinda like Steve Jobs only with more technical knowledge.

    One might put him at above 30% High achiever though. His initial content delivery platform sold for a few hundred million, PayPal went for rather more, then he succeeded with solar panels, batteries, Tesla and making rockets reusable.

    Tesla is still a bit of a vague, ramping up production is proving tricky… And the semi is a bit early to say…

  24. @Princess Rach

    “I was a bit reluctant to ruin her life by explaining brexit, sometimes ignorance is bliss.”

    ———

    You at least took the opportunity to explain margin of error to her though, right?

  25. @OLDNAT ““How confident do you feel in your understanding of what a customs union is? ”

    Not their job to understand the inner workings of a customs union though.

    An alternate non-general knowledge question would be, “Do you think the EU should continue to decide our import tariffs and our trade policy when we are no longer an EU member by remaining in the EU Customs Union”.

    That would then at least explain what being in the Customs Union would entail and they would more likely be able to make a considered response to a political poll!

  26. Except that in turn, people may not know the workings of import tariffs and trade policy, and your phrasing focuses on a negative “EU control” when there are benefits to the arrangement and on top of that the EU determines these things with our input.

    Other than that you’re ok.

  27. As I suspected a comfortable wi for Jack Sergeant in the Alyn and Deeside by-election

    Jack Sargeant, Labour – 11,267 (60.7% – up 14.9)
    Sarah Atherton, Conservative – 4,722 (25.4% – up 4.4)
    Donna Lalek, Liberal Democrat – 1,176 (6.3% – up 1.8)
    Carrie Harper, Plaid Cymru – 1,059 (5.7% – down 3.3)
    Duncan Rees, Green Party – 353 (1.9% – down 0.5)
    Turn out 29%

    UKIP did not stand but looks like there was not a big switch of those votes to the Conservatives

  28. “The draft’s tightly written legal language makes clear just how powerless the U.K. will become in EU matters during the transition. For example, it states: “For the purposes of the treaties, during the transition period, the parliament of the United Kingdom shall not be considered to be a national parliament.” It also states, “during the transition period, the Bank of England shall not be considered to be a national central bank.””

  29. sam: “The draft’s tightly written legal language makes clear just how powerless the U.K. will become in EU matters during the transition.

    Indicative of a substantial lack of trust in the UK. Am I surprised? No.

    I think it would be slightly less harsh if the text stated that the UK parliament and the BoE shall be considered a national parliament and a national central bank respectively outwith the EU.

  30. Good morning all from on board the 07.31 Winchester to Waterloo Choo choo.

    Slight shift in the polls towards the Tories and the Lib/Dems but nothing to write home about.

    I’m more concerned about the overwhelming nauseating aroma coming from the female sitting next to me. No need for that amount of perfume.

    Terrible terrible.

  31. Looks like Survation is the new “gold standard” for polling.

  32. @seachange

    Perhaps:

    “Do you think that British firms should continue to benefit from completely frictionless trade with the UK’s major export market and the comprehensive free trade agreements negotiated by the EU and then ratified by the UK?”

    would be a less leading question than yours?

  33. It was interesting to note the discussion about whether May had done a u-turn on the customs union. To me, it seems clear that technically she hasn’t. She has always said we won’t be in ‘the’ customs union, and all her spokespeople have done this week is say that we won’t be in ‘a’ customs union. So far so good.

    The two areas of contention are firstly, that May has stated she wants a ‘customs arrangement’ and secondly what has already been agreed over NI. The EU is drafting a detailed legal agreement that translates December’s agreement into a legally binding text. Thier view is that the promise of regulatory alignment in all areas relevant to the Good Friday Agreement is, de facto, a customs union. Whatever we call this, it has already been agreed, and is likely to involve acceptance of regulations and restrictions, in a legally binding manner, which will sit at odds with the hard Brexiters demands. In this, I sense a crunch coming.

    Meanwhile, the pressure mounts. An open letter from the Chambers of Commerce this morning is telling May that business leaders are losing patience and need her to make some decisions. And a new study by the UK Trade Observatory finds that even if we signed free trade agreements with all of the rest of the world, British manufacturing would lose at least a third of it’s capacity, concentrated more in the higher tech sectors.

    This will be rejected by leavers, of course, but given that arch Brexiter Minford accepts that Brexit on his terms would effectively eliminate UK manufacturing, the Trade Observatory findings seem all rather sensible. Is this something the Conservatives are ready to accept and own?

    Two further thoughts: New archaeological results from ancient Somerset bons finds that the first modern British population were black. There’s one for the Britain First/UKIP purists.

    Second, on the day we celebrated votes for women, the treatment given out to Anna Soubry was typical. She was ‘over emotional’, ‘over the top’, ‘going a bit off the rails’ etc. Little notices was that Justine Greening said pretty much the same thing, indicating that she would also leave were Smog to become Con leader. Interesting politically, as well as a window into how women are still treated in politics.

  34. Alec: on the day we celebrated votes for women, the treatment given out to Anna Soubry was typical.

    One of my friends is ex-TV and has a hobby of collecting interesting clips and out-takes, of which he has thousands dating back decades. Last night in the pub he recounted one of his favourite out-takes, from a regional evening news (maybe in the 1980s? I don’t think he mentioned a date).

    A young reporter is doing a piece to camara about heavy snowfall in the area. Suddenly she is hit in the back by a massive snowball. “You b**stard,” she roars out. “I’m going to have to do that all over again because of you and your f**cking snowball.” With that, she puts down here mic and starts chucking snowballs back, which is all very jolly until she is hit in the ear by another large, icy, painfull snowball. After a large howl, she rapidly composes herself and delivers a perfect piece to camara, signing off, “Anna Soubry, Central TV, Edgbaston.”

    A real human being in politics!

    (Disclaimer: the quotes may not be verbatim as I haven’t seen the clip and no use of fruity language is alleged or implied. Much.)

  35. @Alec

    Britain First maybe, but it’s a little harsh to lump UKIP in with them.

    I think most people are aware that the earliest humans were dark-skinned, and that it was migration to regions with less sunlight that prompted the evolutionary trend towards “whiteness”. Ergo, the first Britons were almost by definition going to be dark-skinned. The only new news is that we now have a date to work with that is likely to predate the completion of the evolutionary process.

    I suspect “Britain First” could reasonably be considered to sit outside that “most people” definition. UKIPpers on the whole probably not.

  36. “Do you think that British firms should continue to benefit from completely frictionless trade with the UK’s major export market and the comprehensive free trade agreements negotiated by the EU and then ratified by the UK?”
    would be a less leading question than yours?

    ——-

    Except that yours is leading in the other direction a bit. You ideally need a question that captures both sides of the coin, but that would be longer and as we have seen, some people prefer brevity over accuracy.

  37. @”New archaeological results from ancient Somerset bons finds that the first modern British population were black. There’s one for the Britain First/UKIP purists.”

    How predictable that someone would use a fascinating scientific discovery for that pathetic & pointless purpose.

    Jut a bit surprised that it was you Alec.

  38. @alec

    Not only is Minford enthusiastic about betraying Leave voters by eliminating manufacturing, but Rees-Spode is a fully-fledged Minfordite.

    It was wholly and completely predictable that once they’d used them to get what they’d wanted, Tory Brexiteers would betray and discard working-class Leave voters to the very forces they were protesting against. It remains to be seen if the middle-class retirees who have claimed that they stand in solidarity with those left behind actually mean it and try block this ending of UK manufacturing with more concrete action than ‘I don’t believe it will happen’.

  39. @Hireton ““Do you think that British firms should continue to benefit from completely frictionless trade with the UK’s major export market and the comprehensive free trade agreements negotiated by the EU and then ratified by the UK?”
    would be a less leading question than yours?”

    Well, I don’t think I put a negative spin on the question it’s a simple statement of fact which staying in the Customs Union would mean. I didn’t state anywhere that EU competency was negative.

    You could add an addendum if you want to add the positive benefits and negative consequences of that situation:

    Do you think the EU should continue to decide our import tariffs and our trade policy when we are no longer an EU member by remaining in the EU Customs Union?

    This would mean we can take advantage of zero tariffs and frictionless trade in goods with the EU which makes up approximately 27% of our exports. It would also mean we could take advantage of the EU’s current free-trade agreements that will cover approximately 30% of the world’s economy.

    This would have the disadvantage that we could sign no new trade agreements ourselves with the other 70% of the world’s economy and could not lower the high EU’s high tariffs on food. It would also mean the EU’s agreements would be unlikely to consider the special needs of the UK as our economy is 80% services.


    Note: 27% figure is the 2016 43% of trade reduced by services which accounted for 38% of the 43%.

  40. @Alec/Somerjohn

    You don’t have to scratch very hard to reveal the prejudice that lies just beneath the skin across a whole range of industries and professions. I was gobsmacked at the revelation of Tarantino’s 2003 defence of Roman Polanski for example.

    Hopefully the newer generation of politicians will clear a lot of this sort of thing away, between having a higher representation of women, and having younger men who aren’t constantly trying to remember that the world has changed (for the better) and they can’t talk about people the way they used to.

  41. Sea Change …frictionless trade in goods with the EU which makes up approximately 27% of our exports… Note: 27% figure is the 2016 43% of trade reduced by services which accounted for 38% of the 43%.

    For the latest 3-month period available, to Nov, ’17, goods exports to the EU were £42.9bn and to non-EU were £44.7bn.

    Source: ONS https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/bulletins/uktrade/november2017

    That works out at 49% of our goods exports going to the EU.

  42. ALEC

    “British manufacturing would lose at least a third of it’s capacity, concentrated more in the higher tech sectors.”

    That’s not quite what it says though. The conclusion is that it will lose up to a third of its exports in certain sectors, gain a bit in internal markets, and overall lead to a drop in capacity of 3.6%. Certainly not a good thing, but not a third.

    Interestingly the paper predicts a bit of an uptick in manufacturing employment within the more deprived parts of the UK due to the reduction in imports (fig. 15). Perhaps there was some underlying logic in those areas voting to leave?

    On the issue of the NI border and the definition of a customs arrangement, I can’t see any good coming from the EU trying to force the UK into BINO with a bit of legal sophistry. It’ll either end up with us exiting abruptly or with Brexit poisoning the political discourse and getting redone again in another five or ten years, causing continuing harm and uncertainty.

  43. Sea Change,
    “An alternate non-general knowledge question would be, “Do you think the EU should continue to decide our import tariffs and our trade policy when we are no longer an EU member by remaining in the EU Customs Union”.”

    Oh dear oh dear. an alternate question would be, “Do you think Britain should give up its rights to decide import tariffs and trade policy through its membership of the EU, even though it will be obliged to copy EU policy whatever it does in the future?

    That would at least explain a little nation like the Uk is going to have to mirror the EU whether we are a member or not.

    Colin,
    “How predictable that someone would use a fascinating scientific discovery for that pathetic & pointless purpose.”

    The news is full of racist inuendo, its an obvious point. Its highly amusing to think the most original inhabitants of these islands were dark given the level of racism which abounds in politics and in particular Brexit. What i found perhaps surprising was that he had bue eyes. Maybe we should deport everyone who does not have blue eyes and dark skin, should considrably help with overcrowding.

  44. @seachange

    But in your preferred outcome there won’t be frictionless trade with the EU or anybody else as that can only be achieved in a customs union. Notably, Greg Clark defined the UK Government’s objectives very specifically this morning as trade being as ” frictionless as possible”.

  45. Replies and comments later once I’ve gone through NIESR’s new GDP forecast (a mix of sunshine with risk of showers!) and tackled the urgent inbox items.

    Quick coffee break thought regarding Project After ideology and choices with some dark humour thrown in:

    Q: What happens if you put three lions on a vegetarian’s diet?
    A: The banks leave to hunt elsewhere, the public sector slowly dies of starvation and the electorate end up eating the vegetarian!

    Q: What happens if you three lions on a UFT milk diet?
    A: The electorate get cheaper burgers and relax on cheaper sofas paying interest to the banks, the public sector gets sold off to pay the banks, the banks take over the UFT milk factory and send the dividend payments back to US and China.

    A mixed diet would be better IMHO, more on that later.

  46. Garj,
    ” I can’t see any good coming from the EU trying to force the UK into BINO with a bit of legal sophistry”

    It isnt the EU doing that, but the tories! But I dont see any good coming from it, no.

    Sea Change,
    “Do you think the EU should continue to decide our import tariffs and our trade policy when we are no longer an EU member by remaining in the EU Customs Union?”

    Oh a serious question. I think it will continue to decide this, whether we join any formal relationship or not. The Uk has very limited choices and MUST align itself with some trading group or other in the national interest. The perverse thing about attacks on the EU, is that all the relationships we have entered into have been done because they are in the national interest. As a member we get to make the rules, rather than just follow the rules of our most important trading partner.

    Brexiteers just do not accept how any negotiations with the EU will go now or in the future. The EU has a position decided by its members. A trading partner can accept that or go elsewhere. It is the uk which has always kidded itself it has any choice at all in the situation. Our best course has always been as a member so we get to make the rules we will have to follow.

  47. Maybe we should just have a question that asks whether we can have our cake and at it.

  48. DANNY

    @” its an obvious point.”

    Yes-I’m sure that you found it irresistible.

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