YouGov’s regular voting intention figures this week are CON 42%(+1), LAB 42%(nc), LDEM 6%(-1). Fieldwork was Sunday to Monday and changes are from mid-January, showing the stable levels of support that have become the norm in recent months.

One thing that is notable in the tracker questions is the question on whether Brexit was the right or wrong decision: 40% said right, 46% said wrong. Six points is the largest lead for “wrong” that YouGov have shown in this tracker, which has provoked some comment. In YouGov’s last poll there was a blip in the opposite direction and the results put “right” ahead for the first time in months. That didn’t mean anything in hindsight, so I’d urge caution on this one too. All polls have a margin of error, so you get extremes one way or the other – the thing to pay attention to the trend (which does now tend to show slightly more people think it’s the wrong decision than the right one) rather than get wrongly excited about the outliers.

Full tabs are here.

444 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 42%, LAB 42%, LD 6%”

1 7 8 9

    NI certainly is tricky, Trevor. The Irish are aware of what is going on.

    “The UK’s Brexit strategy thus far appears has been founded on a slippery strategy of refusing to be pinned down on policies, which has enabled them to placate all sides by being all things to all people.

    However, the closer we get to the EU withdrawal date, the contradictions and impossibilities inherent in the UK government’s Brexit stance are being thrown into sharp and unignorable relief.

    The inexplicable and indefensible u-turn on the Customs Union is an inevitable consequence of holding multiple fundamentally contradictory positions. It is unlikely to be the last of its kind as a final Brexit deal edges closer.”

  2. For those of you interested in the more gory analyses of Brexit Jonathan Lis rarely disappoints. Poor old Davis.

  3. @ SAM – UK has a massive trade deficit in goods, especially food (highest tariff items). EU27 protect their domestic market via CET (food, cars, etc) and have a massive trade surplus in goods (with UK and rWorld).
    I’m not belittling the complexity of multiple negotiations and certainly do not wish for UFT but if push comes to shove then we walk and negotiate our own TRQs taking a generous chunk of the current EU quota schedule and leaving EU by default to either keep the pre-existing full EU quota or negotiate their own new TRQs but without the massive carrot of the UK’s trade deficit and instead waving around CET with a trade surplus – good luck to them in those negotiations!


    Is not the tory problem that they are in government so they at the end cannot be ambiguous and Labour because they lost the election can be as ambiguous as they like. The fact that May has to make a decision on NI and therefore our customs arrangement means that the ambiguity cannot last.

    Hence I believe your frustration at Corbyn not playing any cards. The polls that I have seen seem to suggest that if you ask people what they want they actually are as divided as the politicians and that is the problem for the government because I believe there is an understanding that all the options are not great.

    In terms of trade deals, what I also find interesting is that You believe a trade deal with China is beneficial but one with the US is not does point to the the overall problem of trade deals. The reality of it is that the whole push on FTA etc are pretty speculative in my view and as Fox himself said the UK could increase exports to china without any deal. Which again leads me to my main point you are asking for huge behavioural changes up and down society with what would be minimal governmental inputs. Brexit problem is that if we judge the whole thing on whether we are more prosperous I think it would fail. If you judge it on the emotion is it not already a success.

  5. @ SAM – “The inexplicable and indefensible u-turn on the Customs Union” ???

    OK, the Feb’17 White Paper (p35) was a little vague on this:
    “The Government will prioritise securing the freest and most frictionless trade possible in goods and services between the UK and the EU. We will not be seeking membership of the Single Market, but will pursue instead a new strategic partnership with the EU, including an ambitious and comprehensive Free Trade Agreement and a new customs agreement.”

    but Florence speech wasn’t:
    “The United Kingdom is leaving the European Union. We will no longer be members of its single market or its customs union”

    I don’t know where this recent confusion on leaving the CU has come from or why the relative export/import numbers of goods (and services that are not covered by CU) is missing in any Remain analysis. Clearly the likes of SMMT, etc have an interest to lobby for CU using any and all means available to them (press, etc) but come on:

    “inexplicable and indefensible u-turn on the customs union”


  6. SAM

    “inexplicable and indefensible u-turn on the Customs Union”

    I’m with TW on this one, May has been pretty consistent from the start on this. I’d add that the Tory manifesto said “we will no longer be members of the single market or customs union.” If there has been a U-turn then I’d like you to point out when the policy has ever been otherwise.

    Of course, the Tory manifesto also promised a “smooth, orderly Brexit.” I think we can all agree that they’ve U-turned on that.

  7. The costs of non tariff barriers (NTBs) arising in connection with the NI beef and sheep meat export trade have been estimated.

    The study also assessed the potential impact of NTBs, focusing on four key areas, namely official controls, customs checks & transport delays, administrative costs and deterioration in product value.
    The results are summarised in Table 4. For this report, it is assumed that WTO Equivalence will have minimal official controls (e.g. 1% physical checks) but under an Open-Door trade policy the EU’s standard official controls apply (e.g. 20% physical checks). Based on 2016 data, under WTO Equivalence, total NTB costs are estimated at £5.85 million whilst under an Open-Door trade policy the total is £11.12 million. As a percentage of the value of output for EU-27 consignments (£194.7million), these NTBs amount to a tariff equivalent of 3.0% under WTO Equivalence and 5.7% under an Open-Door trade policy. These figures were used as the basis for estimating the NTB costs included within the GTAP analysis.

  8. Scottish judge throws out the court case for A50 Revocation as “hypothetical and academic” he went on to say, “In my opinion the application’s prospect of success falls very far short of being a real prospect.”

    Corbyn will be happy camper today ;)

  9. Sea Change

    I’ve no idea about Corbyn’s emotional state, but UK politicians will, no doubt, be pleased that they can proceed in a state of ignorance! :-)

    As it happens, it’s hard to see how Lord Doherty could have ruled otherwise. As I understand the legislation that governs such matters (and that only dimly!) the Court of Session could only have acted in such a case, if a Government had actually taken a decision to do something, which could then be legally reviewed.

    Any appeal to the Inner House, much less the UK Supreme Court, would seem pointless.

  10. Davwel

    You’ll have been pleased by the small victory for common sense through the BBC reverting to a “flat map” of the UK for its weather forecasts (as in days of yore).

    No longer will the Cornish nation (and their English neighbours along the south coast of Greater Britain, be encouraged in their sense of self-importance, via the size of their little bits of land, compared to the northern parts.

    One of the many benefits is that cyclists from Deepest Surrey will no longer think that a quick trip around the coast of Scotland is the same as pedalling their way around the south-westerly peninsula of this island (as opposed to These Islands – which is a very different matter!)

  11. TREVOR W

    I am with you, too that Mrs May has repeatedly said the UK will leave the Customs Union. Also, what I post does not necessarily mean I endorse all that is in the linked piece. The point here is that the fudge is, for some, unravelling. NI moves up the agenda again.

    Mrs May has been consistent in saying the UK will not be in the Customs Union and now she says the UK will not be in any customs union. The use of ambiguity and lack of clarity about handling the NI border issue is now causing a problem.

    Here is some of what was said about her speech yesterday on another blog, Slugger O’Toole.

    “There has to be some form of customs union because of the December agreement. I still think there will be, because May’s new position that there will be no customs union of any sort is completely contradictory to the frictionless trade the government also says it wants.”

    The second response is:

    ” I agree, excellent comment.”

    There are quite a lot of similar posts. The fudge worked well enough to create different perceptions as was noted at the time in blog posts and comments. Now the fudge has to be tied down and made legal – if that is possible.

  12. trigguy,
    “To be honest, I’ve reached the stage with British politics where I feel all you can do sometimes is shrug and (if you’re lucky) laugh. It’s not a position I’d like to defend,”

    I think many voters would agree.

    Pete B,
    ” I just hope that our politicians have the cojones of some of their predecessors.”
    what they certainly do not have is the military might or territorial possessions of their predecessors which rather helped.

    ” I have issues with the EU, and these issues were not discussed during the main Brexit debate,”

    I get that a lot, always looking at things differently to other people.

  13. You’ve all done very well to contain your excitement on this, but the Falcon Heavy test Launch starts streaming at around 6pm our time.

    In another first, all three boosters are returning to base to land. They hope. And they’re sending a Tesla roadster of all things into orbit near Mars. If you fancy a change from whether we’ll have a customs union, you can wonder as to whether it’ll make it, or whether it’ll explode…

  14. Courtesy of Ian Dunt this is what is in the Joint Report on NI / Ireland border and which may or not be translated into legal terms.

    “It pledges there will be no hard border between North and South Ireland. There are three stages to preventing it. First through the “overall EU-UK relationship”. If that fails, through “specific solutions”. And if that fails, through “full alignment” on the rules of the single market and customs union.

    But just for Northern Ireland?

    No, the deal also rules out a border between Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK, so any regulatory alignment here counts for all of us.

    What’s the problem?

    The first stage is impossible by virtue of government policy, the second stage is impossible by virtue of objective reality and the third stage just makes no sense at all.


    Here’s the thing: you can’t prevent a hard border outside of a customs union and single market. Customs unions require checks to make sure firms are paying the right tariff and have satisfied country-of-origin requirements. Single markets require checks to make sure goods are up to their regulatory standards. And Theresa May plans to leave both.

    So the “overall EU-UK relationship” won’t help. What about the “specific solutions”?

    There aren’t any. Brexiters like to say that they can avoid a border using a combination of technology and mutual recognition, but it doesn’t hold up. Even the most frictionless borders in the world, like US-Canada or Norway-Sweden, have checks.”

  15. @ SAM – your imnci post, Table 2. RoI + EU-26 end customer = £194.7mm. Table 3 – high CET tariffs. Table 4 – cost of WTO £5.8mm..

    I’m going to rewrite that £5.8mm as it is important to remember the absolute numbers rather than %s.

    p7 “UK consumption of Northern Irish produced beef and sheep meat is forecast to rise by nearly 23% (£198 million) [ie about the same as NI’s RoI+EU26 exports]. Despite this positive, consideration needs to be given to the extent to which UK consumers will tolerate price rises that would come about under such a scenario and the long-term commitment of Government to continue such a policy

    Price rises? Porquoi?
    Without a lengthy discussion on elasticity of demand/supply, substitute goods, etc. lets just consider which EU nation just below NI accounts for 60% of UK’s beef imports (€1.235bn if we add in sheep which adjusting for FX is considerably less than NI’s RoI + EU-26 end customer total of £194.7mm)
    Conclusion: NI beef+sheep farmers will benefit significantly from a hard border with RoI and a WTO deal with EU

    “HMG policy”. Important but let’s get a handle on the numbers here and point out UK is a transfer union. Even in the UFT scenario (back to Table4) we’re talking about £11.12mm economic hit to NI beef+sheep farmers.

    Pre-bung. NI receives a “substantial fiscal transfer from the Exchequer, about £10bn annually”

    Let’s flip back to %s. Even in a UFT scenario, the transfer amount required for NI farmers to offset their estimated losses represents 0.11% of the current fiscal transfer.


    If I’ve somehow mis-interpreted this or used erroneous numbers then please correct me. I’m keen to get to the bottom of this concern over leaving the CU and, if necessary, resorting to WTO terms.

  16. Trevor Warne,
    ” UK has a massive trade deficit in goods, especially food (highest tariff items). EU27 protect their domestic market via CET (food, cars, etc) and have a massive trade surplus in goods (with UK and rWorld).”

    How on earth do you interpret this as to our advantage? the numbers say we are less competitive than the remaining EU27!

    That being so, how will we as a block of one outcompete them as a block of 27? In anything at all?

    A Uk government now telling Uk voters that because of the trade position we are all going to have to stop buying German cars and french wine will be quickly out of office. But that is the future you hold out.

    “I don’t know where this recent confusion on leaving the CU has come from”

    Do you not read others posts on UKPR? It has been extensively discussed that the recent agreement between May and the EU commits us to open borders with the EU and thus to a customs union. Whatever the eventual outcome, this is exactly where the confusion comes from. May agreed to have one.

  17. Falcon Heavy.

    T-0 is now 1920 UK time. I shall be watching both because it is my thing and Elon thinks there is a good chance it will blow up.

    I hope it all works flawlessly.

  18. Sam (et al),
    re the putative custome union, we have been here before. Prior to the agreeement at the end of last year, May and the govrnment has a number of firm positions. The EU imposed a deadline. The Uk withdrew its firm positions, and agreed a customs union, etc.

    I infer from this that we simply have another iteration of the same right now. Uk government says it will not join a customs union: Come march it signs up to one.

  19. Big change in the attitude towards Trump’s visit since the poll on 1 December

    In favour: 45% (+14)
    Against: 39% (-16)

    It must be said that this does not seem to be due to a huge wave of approval for him, with 11% of people thinking he has been an above average president, 18% a poor president and 49% a terrible president.

  20. @MARKW

    “Elon thinks there is a good chance it will blow up.
    I hope it all works flawlessly”


    If only it could succeed AND blow up…

    Good to know you’ll be watching it too Mark! I recall you said you watched all the launches? (I only really got interested again with the advent of the reusable thing…)

  21. Welsh FM and Government coming out strongly for the UK remaining in both the SM and the CU after Brexit.

  22. @ SAM – I’m just about keeping up with your posts and respect you are posting important questions that aren’t necessarily your own views. Your 5:08pm.
    ” frictionless trade the government also says it wants”

    This is the key component (IMHO). May wants a deep and special relationship with frictionless trade but it takes two to tango (or 27 + 1 in this case). In the impossible sets of red lines and conundrums at some point one or more parties will not get what they want. No one will ever leave negotiations getting everything they want (the notable exception being the Troika v Greece so let’s bear that in mind!)

    From a political perspective my guess would be DUP would climb on board a WTO bus if it came to it. They’d look at:
    – the economic benefit (direct and indirect)
    – the political influence benefit
    – most disturbingly the darker Unionist “benefit” of giving “two fingers” to Varadkar and SF

    Obviously DUP would not admit to wanting this in public. They will get max political and financial gain from being “forced into” this “most unwelcome” outcome – that is the sad reality of political spin.

    Let’s also not forget the DUP have long memories concerning Corbyn and McDonnell. The threat of Corbyn+co was IMHO why DUP MP votes would have been “free” but May botched the GE and the DUP pact is now history.

  23. A bespoke Customs Agreement does not mean we have to be part of the Customs Union…..

  24. Jones in Bangor

    I liked the suggestion from Prof Chalmers that (at the last moment) May would denounce a Customs Union even more strongly, before signing up to a “tulli liitto” (in the hope that the Brexiteers would find it hard to access a Finnish dictionary.

  25. @ DANNY – I’d really love to enter a long discussion into monopolistic pricing, elasticity of demand/supply, tariffs feeding through to inflation (or not), benefits of economies of scale, etc but it’s been a long day.
    Anecdotal evidence: check VW or Daimler’s change (or not) in UK pricing of cars after the large post Brexit FX move and then check their recently posted profits. What do you think their profit margin might be and why SMMT want a CU. If you want a jobs first Brexit, that being UK jobs, let’s go WTO (but not UFT!)

    Brexit is a kick up the 4rse to a lazy UK economy overly reliant on London and will present both risks and opportunities. I’m convinced I read a good Guardian piece explaining the Germany v UK currency issues and how they related to manufacturing opportunities (rUK manufacturing suffers from the stronger £ due to London and German manufacturing benefits from the weaker € due to the PIGS) that made some good points – if you find it before I look again tomorrow I’d encourage you to post it.

    I’ll end with “you can lead a horse to water, but you can’t make them drink”

    (@ PTRP – above relates to your questions)

  26. “My exchange with @TW prompts the further thought that a Corbyn government could be in line for a Weimar experience.

    The comparatively blameless inheritors of a disastrous situation, trying to make the best of a bad job, could end up being blamed for the whole mess. Where things would go from there, goodness only knows.”

    As we all know, trying to find a Brexiteer willing to accept any responsibility whatsoever if Brexit fails will be like trying to find water in the desert.

    They will desperately try to blame someone, anyone else (indeed, they are already doing it) and although their press chums will start out blaming foreigners they will quickly turn on the Labour Party. We all know this will happen, the question is whether anyone outside the frantic blame-shifters of Brexit will fall for it.

  27. P.S. for the day

    Hardly surprising but certainly helps May decide which way to jump. WTO it is. Now let’s just get on with it.

  28. There’s no way of squaring the circle for May over Europe, it’s only a matter of time. She can either leave the Customs Union or have a frictionless border in Northern Ireland. She cannot have both. Leaving the CU puts British business in a deeply disadvantageous position and destroys the Good Friday agreement via a hard border in Ireland. Staying in means the Tory right will depose May and take over. The EU are not going to offer any “bespoke arrangements” with the UK cos they want to see us twisting in the wind, to make an example of Britain to send a message to any other countries that feel like leaving.

    Meanwhile the political terrain gets better for Labour. Economic growth is lagging behind the rest of the world, despite huge amounts of both QE and austerity in a failed bid to revive it. Wages are stagnant whilst inflation creeps higher. The threat of increases to interest rates and the end
    of QE is enough to spook the stock markets into dropping 1000+ points in an instant as they did the other day.

    The arguments on public ownership, PFI, nationalisation and urban regeneration have been quite decisively lost by the right, and the anti-Corbyn news media are reduced to manufactured outrage about Jacob Rees-Mogg getting his bowtie spun at a student meeting in lieu of any substantive political criticism, a sign perhaps that Tory strategists have given up on these staples of Thatcherism entirely and intend to go down the Steve Bannon style culture wars route to attack Labour. No matter, all that gets forgotten about pretty quickly once a campaign is underway.

    What the Labour left need, although they will not say it publicly, is time. The conquest of the Labour party is well underway, the latest chapter being the landslide victory of the Momentum slate at the London Young Labour AGM, but is far from complete. As events in Haringey show us, deeply entrenched Blairites are digging their heels in and determined to do as much harm as possible (in alliance with the Tory media) before they are replaced. The strategists of the left know this and understand they need time to bring in a new generation of people into the front rank and clear out the dead wood. There may be a short term cost in the polls, although they haven’t been very exciting lately seems like Labour are ahead by a nose) but it’s one they can afford to pay since it’s a long way til 2022. Lastly, it’s imperative that Theresa May and the Tories are the ones who take us out of Europe. The media would love nothing more than to spare the Tory party’s embarassment and find a way to blame Labour for Brexit, and they are incredibly frustrated that Corbyn is giving them very little to work with. Let the Tories drink the hemlock, and let them whinge. We focus on the day-to-day material issues that face working class Britons and we win – get dragged into the interminable Brexit debate and we lose.

  29. DANNY

    A customs union that is not the Customs Union of the Single Market means custom controls. The fudge of the Joint Report meant different things to different people. I do not expect and never have that the UK will stay in the Customs Union within the Single Market

    Trevor W

    For the sake of the sanity of readers we should not debate this. There was some discussion of a NTB going on here. My post was chiefly to draw attention to the effects of tariffs and NTBs in NI farming. The piece to which I linked examined different possibilities. One conclusion was that NI farms are likely to need continued support. I found the recommendations made interesting, too.

    Trevor W

    Different topic. In October the EU and UK agreed their approach to the WTO on disentangling TRQs negotiated by the EU on behalf of the UK. Here, there are potential problems within relatively short time.

  30. @Trevor Warne – I can’t help feeling that your reliance on the UK’s large goods trade deficit with the EU and rest of the world as some key weapon for us is somewhat misguided.

    As @Danny suggested, it is, inherently, a sign of weakness in the UK economy as a whole. The question you seem to raise is whether this will help us get a better deal with both the EU and the rest of the world.

    I think the point here must surely be what would arise from this deficit in changed circumstances. You seem to be suggesting that we use the deficit as a carrot to get better trade terms, but it’s us that needs to get good trade terms because of the deficit. We need those goods. If we initiate trade barriers, we’ll see goods prices rise.

    There will be an effect on volumes of imports, but only if the UK can increase output to cover the difference. If not, we just get inflation. You yourself said a few months ago that if there is a good product that consumers want, a trade will be made. You said that when arguing that UK exporters shouldn’t fear WTO, but the same appl!es to those exporting to the UK. So WTO or other barriers will mean higher prices here.

    The other way round is with our exports. Any disruption to trade means our exports are more expensive and harder to sell. But unless we are selling goods for which there are few or no other suppliers, our potential purchasers won’t suffer those price rises – they can switch to other suppliers. If suddenly the whole EU landed back onto WTO, it wouldn’t be so bad for the UK, but it’s different if you are one country importing from 27, as opposed to 27 importing from one. The list of options to switch suppliers gives them far more flexibility to absorb any disruption, so deficit or no, it’s likely that the market distortions that will arise here will be considerable greater than in the EU.

    The deficit was oft repeated as a reason to support Brexit/WTO etc during the referendum, and I have to say I felt it was a good example of economic illiteracy then. I’m yet to be convinced I was wrong.

  31. Alienated Labour

    “We focus on the day-to-day material issues that face working class Britons and we win”

    That’s a touchingly “Socialism in One Country” message.

    I wonder why you aren’t equally concerned about “working class” (would you care to define that antique label for modern times?) folk who don’t self-describe as “Britons” [1] – almost half of the population of NI would reject that description for a start.

    From that agenda that you post, there seems little concern for the “working class” of any other nationality or citizenship.

    Still, it’s quite quaint to see the rhetoric that I heard in my youth in the 1950s resurrected in these very different times.

    [1] I can see you now, singing “Rule Britannia”, exulting to the idea that “Britons never will be slaves”, with the clear expectation that lesser peoples will be.

  32. @AlienatedLabour

    I’m of leftwing persuasion, but the actions against the Council Leader in Haringey concern me deeply.

    I’m no fan if New Labour, but the way a body like Momentum (not accountable to the voters of Haringey) has moved there completely bypasses the electorate.

    It makes less likely to vote Labour not more.

  33. catmanjeff

    I think you need to go and find out the facts.

  34. I’ve read plenty about it thanks.

  35. CMJ

    “completely bypasses the electorate.”

    Doesn’t that happen all the time, and in every party?

    The electorate get to choose between the candidates selected by a small cabal (in some parties) or the whole membership (in other parties).

    While I know nothing of this local spat in Haringey, how is “the electorate” being ignored?

    They weren’t (I presume) given a choice between particular factions of parties when they elected their councillors. Most likely they just voted for the party label.

  36. CMJ

    That electorate didn’t even have the benefit of an STV voting system to allow voters to cast votes preferentially for candidates within the same party.

    Our own UKPR has a “victim” of that system in ex-councillor Peter Cairns – yet I haven’t heard him whining about it and advocating a return to FPTP in Scottish local elections, and calculating how he could work internal party votes to pip his rivals..

  37. New thread

    And thanks ON and Sam for useful info.

    ON: I didn`t reply to your question on Prot/RC religious divisions in Lancashire towns because that earlier thread had moved on.

    But there were no uniform religious districts as far as I know in these moderate-size Lancs towns, unlike NI and Glasgow/Lanarkshire.

    Maybe this was because the Lancashire Catholics were long present scattered in the adjacent countryside, farmers and small estate owners, more like Banffshire and West Aberdeenshire than Central Scotland. And in Preston (that had the 2 sectarian Midland Banks in the 1950s and 1960s), these Catholic folk moving in as the mills grew c. 1820 set up several fine churches in all the new terraced housing developments, this being earlier than the Irish arrived.

    With emancipation, the RCs put up very visible showy chapels in Lancashire, Stonyhurst copying King`s Chapel Cambridge, and later St Walburge`s rivalling Salisbury Cathedral in its tall steeple.

  38. alieated lab

    “As events in Haringey show us, deeply entrenched Blairites are digging their heels in and determined to do as much harm as possible (in alliance with the Tory media) before they are replaced”

    Good grief.

  39. I Know, it’s awful, someone else who doesn’t think he walks on water!!

  40. AL

    “The conquest of the Labour Party is well underway”
    Sadly for democracy it seems your right.

  41. @Oldnat

    My point is that the councillors of all colours in Haringey were elected by the people of Haringey.

    I believe from that point issues with the council should be dealt with by the council or it’s electors unless a party rule was broken or the law/protocols the council runs by.

    For example, if the Leader had broken a Labour Party rule (which she would have signed up to as a candidate) she should have been disciplined.

    She wasn’t, therefore we can assume no rule was broken.

    If other councillors didn’t like her as Leader, they could have called a vote of no confidence.

    They didn’t.

    If she had broken laws or protocols, that’s a matter for the other councillors and/or the law.

    There is no evidence of this.

    Therefore, she ought have remained where she was and have her judgement put to the test in the local elections. If people didn’t like her or her actions, they could boot her out. Fair enough.

    What has happened is that an internal part of Labour Party responded to complaints from some other Labour Councillors (obviously not enough to remove her as head of the Labour Group in Haringey) who leaned on her.

    This is in my view incorrect, as it over-ruled the ways and means of usual accountability for councillors by the electorate.

    I hope that makes it clear for you :-)

  42. Trevor Warne,
    “What do you think their profit margin might be and why SMMT want a CU. If you want a jobs first Brexit, that being UK jobs, let’s go WTO ,”

    I’ve no idea how brexit would bring that about. When we joined the EU, one reason was because the Uk auto industry was moribund. It has only returned because we joined and it makes sense to be here because of the open EU market. Obviously the motor industry wants to maximise its profits, and that is why it will cease to base in the UK (again).

    Brexiteers seem to have this terrible delusion that industry wants to be in the Uk, whereas they have no loyalty to the Uk at all. There is no longer any car industy which will base here simply because it is British. The people who joined the EU understood that all those years ago.

    Trevor Warne,
    “May wants a deep and special relationship with frictionless trade but it takes two to tango ”

    Yes indeed, and the EU has made clear that the Uk is welcome to continue as a member of the EU. It has also made clear there are not and never have been any ‘special’ deals on offer. If I went to my doctor and asked him for a ‘special deal’ on drugs so I didnt have to get them on the open market, he would tell me where to get lost. Just so the EU. The Uk is behaving like a junkie who cannot believe the world will not just do what he wants. Needing another fix but not willing or able to pay for it.

    “Brexit is a kick up the 4rse to a lazy UK economy overly reliant on London”
    No, Brexit is a national front kick in the kidneys for UK industry which is mostly foreign owned, telling them they are not welcome here.

    Alienated Labour,
    ” make an example of Britain to send a message to any other countries that feel like leaving. ”

    You are too down on them. They really have no freedom of action to make any special deal with the UK, and never have. It was never possible to create the sort of deal the Uk has been asking for.

    “The fudge of the Joint Report meant different things to different people.”
    So essentially you argue May’s tactics were simply lying to the EU to stall for time?

  43. Catmanjeff,
    “I’m no fan if New Labour, but the way a body like Momentum (not accountable to the voters of Haringey) has moved there completely bypasses the electorate.”

    Come off it, you really think this is a democracy? With people voting on every national decision, majority win? Everyone here must know that all political parties are run by a small number of committed people who effctively control the nation. The activists choose the candidates, not the voters. The activists choose which policies will be active, voters get a choice of two options if they are lucky, with no certainty the elected party will not then change its mind. In fact, all we get is a choice between two platforms of maybe 1000 different policies, and the chance to pick the one we dislike least.

    Momentum a new force inside labour (and a considerable minority there at that)? The rather opposite Blairites takeover of labour? Those mysterious ‘orange bookers’ who took over the libs? Farage’s one man Brexit takeover of the tory party? Its just shuffling political deckchairs. Rows between establishment factions for dominance, nothing for voters to worry about. Voters are a rubber stamp, whoever manages to grab the royal seal for the moment, by fair means or foul, does as they please.

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