YouGov’s regular voting intention figures this week are CON 42%(+1), LAB 42%(nc), LDEM 6%(-1). Fieldwork was Sunday to Monday and changes are from mid-January, showing the stable levels of support that have become the norm in recent months.

One thing that is notable in the tracker questions is the question on whether Brexit was the right or wrong decision: 40% said right, 46% said wrong. Six points is the largest lead for “wrong” that YouGov have shown in this tracker, which has provoked some comment. In YouGov’s last poll there was a blip in the opposite direction and the results put “right” ahead for the first time in months. That didn’t mean anything in hindsight, so I’d urge caution on this one too. All polls have a margin of error, so you get extremes one way or the other – the thing to pay attention to the trend (which does now tend to show slightly more people think it’s the wrong decision than the right one) rather than get wrongly excited about the outliers.

Full tabs are here.


444 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 42%, LAB 42%, LD 6%”

1 5 6 7 8 9
  1. @NEIL A

    ” (arguably – based on the assumption that the four freedoms truly are inseperable)”

    Obviously the four freedoms are a given, only an idiot could misunderstand that. But be clear, we are talking of the freedom of movement of labour. There are plenty of existing rules to stop people moving to increase their non-work benefits. But hey, keep reading the Daily Mail, and don’t let any facts get in the way of forming your opinion.

    Yours, a British Citizen STABBED IN THE BACK BY THE FAR RIGHT. And yes, I am purposefully using your language to support my case.

  2. @Maraan

    You being unfair on @Neil A.

    If you think he his the stereo-type you describe, I’m afraid you misjudge him entirely.

    He has always been a polite and reasoned regular poster.

  3. @Maraan

    Hmm, I think you’ve mistaken me for some other Leave voter.

    I don’t disagree that for the EU the four freedoms are non-negotiable. There’s no point the UK arguing on that ground (Cameron already tried and failed – which is how we ended up with the Leave vote in the first place). The key now is “given the end of Freedom of Movement, and therefore the refusal to allow the UK to be a member of the Single Market, how close a relationship is permissible?”

    That’s something that really only the EU can answer. The UK would have happily voted Remain if they could have put restrictions on Freedom of Movement. The UK public are either supportive of, or not really bothered about, all of the other “Leave” obsessions, from the ECJ to the budget contribution to the Customs Union/Right to Sign Trade Agreements.

    The signalling from Barnier has essentially been that only a Canada style trade deal is acceptable to them. I expect that’s probably the case. In which case we need to be looking at whether such a deal could be negotiated that would be better for the UK than a “no deal” or “minimum deal” scenario would be.

  4. @NEIL A

    Nice of you to say so.

    “It seems you’re a victim of an administrative rule? Normally you can vote at your last UK address, but perhaps your circumstances mean you don’t have one, or it was too long ago? I would have expected you to be able to register as a Special Category Elector?”

    Ha ****ing ha.

    You obviously have no idea.

    The Supreme Court ruled: in a binding referendum, I would have the right to vote. In an advisory referendum, my vote costs too much and therefore can be ignored.

    And so, YOU (yes, you!), on the basis of this advisory vote, want to ruin the lives of my children and I? Just asking…

    If you want to screw up lives, you have to let us vote. Anything else is undemocratic and just plain nasty…

  5. Thank you CMJ. Maraan clearly has very strong views and that’s absolutely fine. I recognise the stereotype as a a valid one, even if I don’t conform to it.

  6. @CATMANJEFF

    “f you think he his the stereo-type you describe, I’m afraid you misjudge him entirely.”

    Oh, when do I accuse him of being the “stereotype”?

    If I did, (and I don’t think I did), then I apologize.

    Oh, it’s all a fun political discussion for you all.

    Real people, STABBED IN THE BACK BY THE FAR RIGHT, who cares about them? I’ll tell you, we pay our taxes, but we have no vote, so NOBODY CARES ABOUT US.

  7. @Maraan

    It seems you’re right. I had no idea that the Supreme Court had heard a case about the rights of foreign-domiciled UK citizens to vote in the referendum. Am I right that you’re referring to the Shindler and MacLennan ruling in 2016? (Just read a Guardian article about it online). If so I presume you haven’t lived in the UK for 15 years?

    The Supreme Court ruling on whether the vote was binding came after the Leave vote, didn’t it? I thought that was Gina Miller’s case?

    I’d appreciate a link to the case that affected you, if you’ve got the time to dig one out. It really does seem as if I am learning something new.

  8. @NEIL A

    “Thank you CMJ. Maraan clearly has very strong views and that’s absolutely fine. ”

    That’s very decent of you to say so. Seriously.

    Now, if you can give me one good reason why my children’s lives should be ruined, and why my opinion about that should be irrelevant, and yet you still gratefully take my tax, I would be much obliged…

  9. @Maraan

    I am still unsure why you believe your children’s lives will be ruined. Is it because you think Brexit will cause huge economic damage, that will blight their future prospects? Or is it a more particular legal status issue?

    And I still don’t quite understand exactly what happened to your right to vote. It’s quite possible (actually probably very likely) that I would agree that you should have had a voice, but I’d like to know what happened.

    As for taking your taxes, I am very grateful to everyone who pays taxes to the Exchequer, as my entire income is paid by the government. So, thank you.

    (As for the “Far Right” stuff, I am definitely not on the far right. More of a vaguely Eurosceptic Orange Book liberal who doesn’t like new development on greenfield land and generally, but not always, votes Conservative despite not really being that much of a fan. I’d also point out that the most enthusiastic Leave campaigners in the city where I live were from Labour Leave, so there is not a straight correlation between Left-Right and Remain-Leave axes).

  10. @ Maraan

    “Oh, it’s all a fun political discussion for you all.”

    Well yes, you’ve probably hit a nerve there, at least in my case, but there are genuine activists who comment here. Unlike me, they are trying to make the world a better place, and they come from all sides of the political spectrum.

    To be honest, I’ve reached the stage with British politics where I feel all you can do sometimes is shrug and (if you’re lucky) laugh. It’s not a position I’d like to defend, and I feel bad about it, but our government in recent years has been so good at making itself a laughing stock, it’s difficult to resist.

  11. MARAAN

    Sadly this whole shambles was all down to infighting within the Tory party and Cameron’s reckless gamble. It has left families like yours in a state of flux. I hope this sorry mess ends up with your family not being adversely affected.
    All the best.

  12. The Monk @ 7.15 pm

    I was a shareholder in Carillion, but sold my small holding a few years ago.

    I inherited when my father died several similar holdings, and I was regularly angered by their remuneration committees` recommendations. For a few years I sent off votes not to approve these recommendations, but came to realise there was no chance of keeping remuneration for the top brass to reasonable levels. So I sold off these holdings, and used the money to finance my voluntary activities.

    So yes, I was too harsh on some shareholders, but collectively they have not ensured the company was managed sensibly. Alert shareholders could have seen the precarious state of the company and got something from selling last year.

  13. @NEIL A

    I appreciate your patience, and your willingness to learn.

    ” If so I presume you haven’t lived in the UK for 15 years?”

    Wrong. The UK is the centre of my life, that’s why I pay UK tax. But I had no permanent address. Hence I could be blocked from voting.

    But since I lose my work and my residence, I have bought a house in the UK. I am in the process of moving. I will stop being a taxpayer and become dependent on handouts. People who voted for that can’t complain about it.

    Am I angry? Yes. Not just because the far right successfully stopped me voting about it, but because they have failed to deliver ONE argument as to why it would be better for the country as a whole.

  14. @Mike

    I hear that a lot, and of course there’s some truth in it. But it also oversimplifies and glosses over large parts of the picture.

    The UK itself was very divided over EU membership, not just the Tory party. UKIP actually managed to top the poll in the EU elections, remember (and very definitely not just on defected Tory votes).

    Lots of Tories supported Remain. Lots of people on the left supported Leave. Even if, as most Remain supporters believe, the voters were conned by dumb arguments, false promises and a partisan media, most of the electorate voted to leave. Millions more people than have ever voted for the Tories.

    Given that Maraan’s central issue is the denial of a democratic voice, it seems odd to retort that the referendum should never have been held – denying a direct voice to 17 odd million people.

  15. @Maraan

    I am really confused now. I thought that any UK citizen, who had resided in the UK during the past 15 years, was entitled to vote. I myself have cast several proxy votes on behalf of an old schoolfriend, who is half-English, half-German and who teaches abroad (her only “home” is in Germany). I cast votes for her in Bristol, where she used to live and teach many years ago. Generally her instructions were for me to work out which candidate I thought was the best candidate to beat the Tories, and I would faithfully research that and vote accordingly. Come to think of it I don’t think she voted in the referendum (she would definitely have been a Remain vote) and she didn’t tell me why. Perhaps she wasn’t able to.

    I’d still like more details of the legal case that denied you your vote. We are very disparate in our political views here on UKPR, but we are almost all geeks about voting matters. I am genuinely curious.

  16. The truth is that living in a democracy means frequently things happen that you don’t support, and other people don’t share your view.

    I’ve rarely seen anything like a Government I could support, or policies I agree with being enacted.

    However, you just have to suck it up and make the best out of it. If you want another democratic outcome get involved with politics and try (be warned – this rarely seems to make a difference, but you tried:-) )

    I do sympathise with Maraan’s plight, as I sympathised with the Miners in eighties, as I sympathise with the millions of workers who haven’t seen anything like a decent pay rise in a decade.

    Sometimes you have to look at what you’ve got (more that most folk in the world) and make the best it.

  17. Will Trump claim credit for this too?

    Dow Jones hit by worst fall since 2008

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-42942921

  18. @CARFREW
    “Thanks for the links. You may be aware I probably wouldn’t agree with Blyth when he blames inflation in the Seventies in full employment. “

    Interesting, I’ll have to look for some discussion of that.

  19. @Various – I think the argument that the EU isn’t being clear what it wants as the endpoint from Brexit is pretty empty, to be honest. They have made it clear that there are models already on offer, ranging from third country status on WTO up to Norway and the SM, via Switzerland, CETA, the CU and EFTA (and any other acronym I’ve forgotten about). It’s a pretty comprehensive list of readily available options we can have covering all manner of different arrangements. It is, in truth, rather a broad menu for us to choose from.

    In return, the UK has rejected every one of them, saying that none of these are good enough for us. Our government has come up with a series of contradictory statements, that are internally illogical, with solutions based on wishlists of arrangements we haven’t described, backed by systems we can’ identify, underpinned by technologies we can’t name, and then we expect the EU to come back with their proposals and think it’s unfair that they don’t?

    Sorry, but I think that’s a uniquely UK centric view of the world and a somewhat arrogant way to approach this.

    I agree that at some point the EU will need to start saying what is and isn’t acceptable to it as a final end point for these talks. That’s how discussions like this work. The fact that they haven’t is largely down to the fact that the UK has still failed to come up with any firm proposals on what we want and how it would work.

    Once we put something proper on the table, we’ll start to get a proper response. Until then, the response from the EU will remain to ask us what it is we want, and this is exactly what should be expected. We remain where we are not because the EU is being unpleasant or devious, but because our government has been so disfunctional and useless at setting out what it wants.

    For those who think the EU should be tabling proposals, just remember this: This week is the first time our own government will discuss what it actually wants from Brexit – and this in a small committee, not even the full cabinet, at a meeting held in secret, 592 days after the referendum vote and nearly a year into the formal negotiations.

    And you think the EU should be talking about the Brexit end point?

  20. NEIL A

    The Referendum was held purely because of Tory infighting. It has been an obsession within the right wing of the party for decades. Cameron feared the ideologists would try and bring him down unless he consented to a Referendum. He was also worried about the rise of UKIP which was essentially a one man band and the hate campaigns in the right wing press.

    To hold a Referendum on such a complex matter was idiotic. Some used their vote to protest against the Government. The campaign on both sides was pitiful on such a serious matter. The outcome has split the country in a way that no other issues has in post war politics. It will continue to do so post Brexit.

    I keep hearing about the will of the people. Well the will of the people changes. Nearly all polls suggest Remain would win if there was another Referendum. This is why it was so dangerous to go to the people. Yes there will be some who voted either way for valid reasons but I suspect many were influenced by the press and their scapegoating of I’m igrsnts and the EU.

    Still what is done is done. We will leave the EU. Like millions of others please do not expect me to be happy about it. I will fight for our return to within the EU in the years that follow. Sadly our country will remain bitterly divided. That Neil is a huge shame.

  21. @Alec

    Barnier provided a very helpful little diagram which basically said “all we’re going to give you is a Canada-style trade deal”.

    I think the difference is that rather than attempting to set up free trade arrangements, we are moving from a position where we already have them. It is not unreasonable for the UK in those circumstances to argue that there is no need to pick and “off the shelf” solution.

    Barnier has today said there must be “obstacles” to trade if the UK is not in the SM and CU. Very well. What obstacles? No passporting rights seems pretty much nailed on. But what else?

  22. I am stating facts and getting moderated.

    I can understand why this is uncomfortable for many of you, but I am out.

  23. @Mike

    I don’t doubt and am not denying you your unhappiness. I am above all a democrat and you’re more than welcome to campaign for what you believe in.

    But forgive me for suspecting that if the Tories had won an election with a stonking Thatcher-style majority, and had decided to pass an Act revoking the UK’s membership of the UK, you may well have been arguing that such a massive constitutional change shouldn’t be contemplated without a referendum.

    As it happens we’ve had two general elections and a referendum in 2 years. In 2015 the voters chose to elect a government whose stated policy was to hold a referendum on the EU. In 2016 the voters chose to leave the EU. In 2017 the voters chose to vote for parties who were committed to leaving the EU. I am not sure what sort of mandate you would actually accept?

  24. @Neil A – “It is not unreasonable for the UK in those circumstances to argue that there is no need to pick and “off the shelf” solution.”

    Yes it is. We’re in a free trade arrangement (actually, we’re in much more than that) because we’re in the club. We want to leave the club, so expecting to keep all the good bits is irrational. Brexit means Brexit – that’s what they said, and in effect that’s all that Barnier is saying back to us.

  25. @Maraan

    If you’re in moderation it is 99% likely to be because of an accidental mix of letters/words that has triggered automod. Or possibly because of posting multiple links in the same post.

    AW doesn’t mod people for expressing their opinions, and if he had done so he’d probably have commented or edited rather than straight modding it.

    Please persevere. I genuinely wish to know how you came to be denied a vote. It sounds pretty outrageous to me.

  26. “AW doesn’t mod people for expressing their opinions”

    You must be f*cking joking.

  27. @Alec

    And because of that there’s literally no possible alternative than Canada’s deal?

    I am not saying that the EU is obliged to offer anything more, just that it is perfectly possible to do so, and perfectly reasonable for the UK to explore those possibilities.

    Also I am not sure what the “good bits” thing means. As I understand it, Freedom of Movement is one of the major “good bits” of EU membership. And we’re giving it up, for free, expecting nothing in return.

    And if we can’t expect anything of the benefits of being “in the club” at all, then that means WTO rules doesn’t it? In or out. Black or white. Good or bad. Etc.

  28. @NickP.

    No I’m not. He repeatedly reminds people that this is not intended to be a place to endlessly repeat partisan arguments, and sometimes steps in when things get bad-tempered and out of hand, but 90% of the posts contain opinions (probably 50% contain nothing but) and very, very few are modded.

    Expressing opinions in an insulting manner, or about verboten topics, perhaps. But I have expressed thousands of opinions here over the past decade or so, and been modded about three times that I can recall (and every one deserved).

  29. Neil A just a slight quibble, re

    ”In 2017 the voters chose to vote for parties who were committed to leaving the EU”

    I think in 2017 voters voted for parties committed to honouring the result of the referendum is more accurate.

  30. @Neil A – my last post was somewhat misleading. Yes, there are options to agree to do something like Canada plus, and the EU haven’t ruled this out. They’ve just pointed out that we can’t have things as good as they are now once we leave – which is abundantly fair. I just don’t think it’s reasonable for them to be expected to come up with the detailed proposals – we’ve chosen to leave, so we need to put together what we are asking for. The truth of the matter is that we just haven’t done that.

    Saying ‘we want Canada plus, plus, plus’ or ‘the best possible access to the single market’ are just soundbites. What do they actually mean? Until we lay out a comprehensive set of detailed proposals, there isn’t anything the EU can do except point out the anomalies in what we are saying.

    Like I say, only now is May actually thinking about what her government wants from Brexit – this is why the EU hasn’t been able to be constructive in the talks.

  31. Ha, by way of example my reply appears to have been auto-modded!!

  32. @Neil A

    I think you’ve misinterpreted the Barnier diagram.

    It simply shows which options have been ruled out by the various UK requirements and red lines. If we don’t want to be in the SM or CU, that makes several potential arrangements that involve such membership impossible. It’s us who’ve effectively cut the list of possible solutions to a free trade agreement.

    Barnier didn’t say “all we’re going to give you is a Canada-style trade deal”. Instead, he said that if you yourselves rule out anything deeper, that’s what’s left.

  33. Catching up…sorry for the long post, but there were several things I wanted to reply to.

    RobbieAlive (6:48pm)
    “…Tory members who are predominantly white, 65+, male, fanatically pro-Brexit & anti-immigration; in aggregate, 50,000 of these silver-buttoned, blue-blazered, silk-cravatted democrats…”

    Isn’t this a bit ‘partyist’ or something? I doubt that many Tories in the Midlands and North or the satellite countries wear blazers and silk cravats, though some of the other descriptions may be apposite. Suppose a Tory said that Labour members were a combination of metropolitan Marxists and cloth-capped whippet-breeding peasants? Would that be fair?

    Chris Riley (7:51pm)
    “Although if 60,000 people joined the Tories and they had views that had a little more in common with the actual electorate, things would get interesting quickly.”

    I think the same could be said for all the parties. People who are interested in politics almost by definition have little in common with the electorate.

    Alberto (7:59pm)
    “We need better measures [than GDP] of wealth and wellbeing and to make these the criteria for government.”

    GDP has its limitations, but it would be sensible to keep it as one of the criteria for government, though I can see that other measures could also be used. However, doesn’t each government decide which measures it considers important? If not them, then who? The Queen?

    B18
    “Any idea the state of the parties at a local level ?”

    UKIP Sandwell’s committee has resigned en masse for vague reasons before the latest leadership brouhaha.

    Trigguy (8:44pm)
    “What happens if/when we persist is not so clear, but I don’t think they’re going to suddenly turn nice. It’s definitely not cricket, it’s politics. I don’t really know who will blink first in this dangerous game, but I have a feeling we’ll have to wait a long time for the EU to blink.”

    I think you’ve hit the nail on the head. Others may disagree, but I just hope that our politicians have the cojones of some of their predecessors.

    Neil A (9:24pm)
    Forgive me intruding on your debate with Maraan, but this “The UK public are either supportive of, or not really bothered about, all of the other “Leave” obsessions, from the ECJ to the budget contribution to the Customs Union/Right to Sign Trade Agreements.”

    I’m not so sure about the first two. I think quite a few Leave voters were influenced by the ECJ overruling our courts and by the budget contribution, though I admit that free movement was probably the biggest force. The Customs Union is probably a bit esoteric for many voters.

    I admired your perseverance with Maraan. He/she is clearly very angry but I was baffled by one bit of what he said:
    “But since I lose my work and my residence, I have bought a house in the UK. I am in the process of moving. I will stop being a taxpayer and become dependent on handouts. ” So he can afford to buy a house but will then be dependent on benefits? How does that work?

  34. Somerjohn

    Agreed about the Barnier diagram.

    It seems rather obvious that the UK Government is correct in saying that they want the “greatest possible access to the Single Market, but every red line that they declare simply restricts what is possible.

    In any negotiation, both sides want the best that they can possibly get. In order to get the things they want most, they have to give way on the bits that they would like, but are of a lower priority.

    The UK’s problem, it seems to me, is that both the governing party and the electorate (judging by the polls) are split over what those priorities should be – “taking back control” or maximising trade with the EU.

    I can understand the zealots on both sides arguing that only their set of priorities is pure, but unless a consensus can be found within the Cabinet (who are doing the negotiations) and MPs (who can overrule them) then this dismal process will continue.

    What seems absolutely foolish, was the tabling of A50 before any such consensus had been found.

  35. Jim Jam

    “I think in 2017 voters voted for parties committed to honouring the result of the referendum is more accurate”

    It is a very fair interpretation. The only question is the meaning of “honouring” – this is the whole thing.

    And this is what The polls repeatedly capture – no real interpretation of the meaning of it.

    From the Eurobarometer poll it is quite obviously xenophobia. We love Europe as tourists, and buying property in Bulgaria,but otherwise it’s nothing to do with us, who trust FB more than our own government, and would like our plane flown by Farage rather than a fully trained pilot (those are experts and are in fearmongering). One may want to remember what happened to Farage just before the 2015 elections. There is actually a pretty solid basis to all these non-sense. I actually have empathy with these people. The world is changing far too fast for them (again – long hair = communist if you can go back 50 years) – so it’s the desire of change and desire of stability at the same time (a classic problem for conservatives). That some people are in the way for the great compromise between the two is neither here not there (they will get on, or better, get out), so we favour a lose-lose situation.

    It will be absolutely miserable for many (not for me, in spite of overpopulating these islands, simply because of the social class), but it can be soothed for the time being.

    ———–

    From the same Eurobarometer survey there is one warning sign: this youngsters (18-24) who haven’t left their countries East of the River Elbe are longing for an authoritarian regime. Disposing the youth resistance to Brexit may just import this (without CU or SM) to the UK.

  36. I am still at a loss to understand why it is incumbent on the EU to offer us anything at all. We want to leave. Isn’t it up to us to state on what terms we would like to leave and for the EU to respond to our proposals, not the other way round? That surely is the starting point for the negotiations.

    The fact that the Government hasn’t the faintest idea what terms it wants is not the fault of the EU, nor is it up to them to start putting forward proposals.

  37. Laszlo

    ” the desire of change and desire of stability at the same time ”

    Or sometimes, a wish to see change in a particular direction, but “not too far – just yet”.

    Sadly, the zealots for radical change NOW, are sometimes in a position to force people into making a binary choice that they would rather avoid. That’s what happens in most referendums where people are forced into an X or Z choice (although many would have preferred a “Y-ish” option.

    As with Brexit, so with Scottish independence. The Scotsman is reporting a Survation poll question on Scots’ constitutional preferences.

    Entirely unsurprisingly, given the choice of “status quo”, “Devo-Max” (all powers except defence and foreign affairs), and independence the percentages were –

    36% status quo
    32% independence
    17% Devo-max
    15% don’t know (and quite possibly don’t care, either)

    That roughly 3-way split (pro : anti : something in between or not bothered) is very common.

  38. @Pete B

    “Isn’t this a bit ‘partyist’ or something? I doubt that many Tories in the Midlands and North or the satellite countries wear blazers and silk cravats, though some of the other descriptions may be apposite. Suppose a Tory said that Labour members were a combination of metropolitan Marxists and cloth-capped whippet-breeding peasants? Would that be fair?”

    ——–

    If it’s Tories or Corbyn, apparently that’s ok. But if you aren’t 100 percent positive towards Nulab, that’s “bashing” apparently, even if they can’t actually challenge your points. No one knows why.

  39. @Pete B

    “However, doesn’t each government decide which measures it considers important?”

    ——–

    They do, but we have to check they’re doing it right, it’s kind of like a democratic duty or something. Like the cricket.

  40. Have other people found the same ?

    Most of the people I have encountered who voted leave in the EU referendum, now say that they made a mistake. They say they did not have the information they needed to make a decision at the time and had they known what they know now, they would have voted remain.

    The polling seems to suggest people are increasingly against Brexit and I wonder whether Politicians can move towards not proceeding with Brexit or changing policies. Labours shadow cabinet are meeting this week to discuss changing their policy, which might be backing staying in the EU Customs area.

    Government might struggle to get Brexit related legislation through parliament and lead to a General Election, which might put Brexit on hold.

  41. The options for Mrs May are narrow and about to become more narrow. It was she, with Mr Timothy, who decide on leaving the Single Market and Customs Union. Politically, she cannot go back on that decision. Nor can she accept the No Deal scenario for there has been belated recognition of the great damage that can do.

    Mrs May is still picking fights she can’t win. She wishes there to be no freedom of movement during the transition. The UK has no bargaining strength on this.

    Quite soon, there will be efforts to translate what was agreed and fudged in the Joint Report into legal text. Good luck to that with respect to Ireland and the border.

    For there to be a transition period it will be necessary for the UK to spell out what deal it wants. There will not be room for the Cakeist Tendency any longer. Things will start to fall apart at that point.

  42. @Neil A – re reading last night’s exchanges, this stands out – “Barnier provided a very helpful little diagram which basically said “all we’re going to give you is a Canada-style trade deal”.”

    I think your interpretation of this is completely incorrect and you need to read @Somerjohn’s 11.15pm post.

    All the EU have done is try to define the remaining options once the UK’s public statements have been taken into account, using our own policies to exclude options.

    A while ago Brexiters on here were lauding the ‘constructive ambiguity’ approach as the best way to handle this by May. But this ambiguity also prevents the EU from making progress on what they would like to see, as our own position is yet to be defined.

  43. Unusual political event, By-Election for the Welsh Assembly today. Yes, on a Tuesday! Wonder if this will have any effect on turnout?

  44. @R Huckle

    Have other people found the same ?

    Most of the people I have encountered who voted leave in the EU referendum, now say that they made a mistake. They say they did not have the information they needed to make a decision at the time and had they known what they know now, they would have voted remain.

    The polling seems to suggest people are increasingly against Brexit and I wonder whether Politicians can move towards not proceeding with Brexit or changing policies. Labours shadow cabinet are meeting this week to discuss changing their policy, which might be backing staying in the EU Customs area.

    Government might struggle to get Brexit related legislation through parliament and lead to a General Election, which might put Brexit on hold.

    To out myself, I was a ‘Lexiteer’. I have issues with the EU, and these issues were not discussed during the main Brexit debate, nor are being addressed now. I did not partake in campaigning for the official Leave Campaign, as I pretty much disagreed with most of it and the policy angles they were pushing.

    If there was another referendum (actually not if but when there is another IMHO), I would be very torn. The EU has not remotely dealt with the concerns I have, and listening to Macron etc, I don’t think they will.

    On the other hand, the Brexit negotiations have been appallingly handled, in a cack handed fashion, in a directionless farce.

    If it were a Labour Government negotiating Brexit would I be happier? Slightly, but not much.

    I suspect I am not alone!

  45. Correction to tags

    @R Huckle

    Have other people found the same ?

    Most of the people I have encountered who voted leave in the EU referendum, now say that they made a mistake. They say they did not have the information they needed to make a decision at the time and had they known what they know now, they would have voted remain.

    The polling seems to suggest people are increasingly against Brexit and I wonder whether Politicians can move towards not proceeding with Brexit or changing policies. Labours shadow cabinet are meeting this week to discuss changing their policy, which might be backing staying in the EU Customs area.

    Government might struggle to get Brexit related legislation through parliament and lead to a General Election, which might put Brexit on hold.

    To out myself, I was a ‘Lexiteer’. I have issues with the EU, and these issues were not discussed during the main Brexit debate, nor are being addressed now. I did not partake in campaigning for the official Leave Campaign, as I pretty much disagreed with most of it and the policy angles they were pushing.

    If there was another referendum (actually not if but when there is another IMHO), I would be very torn. The EU has not remotely dealt with the concerns I have, and listening to Macron etc, I don’t think they will.

    On the other hand, the Brexit negotiations have been appallingly handled, in a cack handed fashion, in a directionless farce.

    If it were a Labour Government negotiating Brexit would I be happier? Slightly, but not much.

    I suspect I am not alone!

  46. @CMJ – very much understand your viewpoint. It sounds like we are very close in our thinking on the EU, with the difference that I tipped marginally to remain by the time I voted. My main reason for doing this was because I thought the leavers and those likely to lead the leaving process were simply awful, with no idea what they were asking for, and that the leaving deal would end up being dreadful for the UK. I was also concerned about the timing – if we are going to leave, we don’t do it after a prolonged recession where the recovery has been weak and we are close to the next cyclical downturn with a stonking great debt pile and still running a hefty deficit. In all of this, I do feel somewhat vindicated, but that makes me no happier at the situation.

    If we are ever going to leave we need a really good government to take us out, and I see no one on the Tory side remotely good enough to do that.

  47. R Huckle – well what does the polling say? :-)

    Anecdotally, my leave-voting boss, who was sure it was going to be 60:40 remain, so might as well provide some counterbalance with his vote (i.e. he wasn’t really a leaver), is now a commited leaver, because he feels that the EU’s handling of what followed has been unfair.

    [I myself am a disenfranchised left-wing EU-skeptic remainer – EU-resident for more than a decade, but never bothered to get a passport and thus voting rights. Also never thought that the refererendum would be lost, so didn’t care to act quickly when it was announced that there’d be one]

    So – probably lots of movement of opinion either way.

    On another note: The whole argument about opinion polls now showing remain in front. Well they did show that before the actual referendum as well. It has to be a pretty solid shift (like 65:35) for the politicians to start taking it seriously.

  48. WB
    Unusual political event, By-Election for the Welsh Assembly today. Yes, on a Tuesday! Wonder if this will have any effect on turnout?

    It is the eat of the late Carl Sergeant, his son Jack is contesting it for Labour so not sure it will tell us very much Would expect an easy win for him, but agree turn out maybe interesting

  49. Should read seat

  50. I hesitate to get involved in things of which I know little and understand even less, but I do wonder what the political implications of the stock market turmoil may be.

    In the US, Trump has continually pointed to Wall Street as a sign that his economic policies are working. Pundits today are saying ‘if you buy the good news you own the own the bad news’. While he tweeted self congratulatory messages at every new Dow Jones record, he has been strangely reticent to comment on yesterdays largest ever one day points fall.

    This morning the FSTE has opened dramatically lower, following several days of losses. I pulled most of my pension savings out of funds with high stocks exposure a couple of weeks ago, but I’m not sufficiently knowledgable to place them somewhere that is bombproof, so Mrs A and I will be losing a bit from this, but I do wonder what the headlines of market routs are going to do for voters.

    The connection between markets and the real economy is not simple, but in an increasingly worriesome Brexit period, anything that makes UK voters think the economy is wobbling may have a bearing on how optimistic or defensive voters begin to feel.

1 5 6 7 8 9