ICM and Ipsos MORI both published their latest voting intention figures last week. Topline voting intentions were

Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 39%(+2), LAB 42%(+3), LDEM 9%(nc)
ICM/Guardian – CON 41%, LAB 41%, LDEM 7%

Fieldwork for MORI was over last weekend, changes are from November. The ICM poll was part of a larger than usual sample of 5000, conducted between the 10th and 19th of January. I have not included changes since the previous ICM poll, as this one was actually partially conducted before ICM’s last poll. Full tabs are here for MORI, and here for ICM.

ICM also asked some questions about a second EU referendum. Asked how people would vote in a second referendum 45% said they would vote to Remain, 43% to Leave. These figures are broadly typical of most recent polls asking about a second referendum, which tend to show a very small lead for Remain. As in most other cases this is not really due to people changing their minds (the number of Leave voters switching to Remain is pretty much cancelled out by Remain voters switching to Leave), but down to people who did not vote in 2016 disproportionately claiming they would now vote Remain. The referendum question in this poll was not weighted or filtered by likelihood to vote.

ICM found 47% of people agreeing with a a statement that “I think the public should have the chance to take a final decision on whether or not to leave the EU in another referendum when the outcome of the negotiation is known?”. The Guardian have strangely written this up as a rise in Labour support for a second referendum, when ICM don’t appear to have ever asked this question before to compare it to. As all regular readers will know, how you ask a question can produce very different results and questions on a second referendum seem to show particular variation depending on how the question was asked (see an example here from Lord Ashcroft, asking the question in four different ways). In this case the question was asked as an agree/disagree structure (a question format that tends to produce a skew in favour of the statement), and characterised it in terms of “giving the public the chance to take a final decision”. My guess is that the higher support for a second referendum here may well be down to wording rather than a change in support, though as ever, we’ll only really know when we see repeats of questions that have been asked in the past.

Turning to other questions in the MORI poll, they asked a question on whether Donald Trump should be invited to Prince Harry’s wedding. Asked straight, 23% of people thought that he should, 69% that he should not. Half the sample saw an alternate question asking about inviting both Donald Trump *and* Barack Obama – this produced a slightly less negative response with 39% in favour, but still 54% against.


233 Responses to “Latest ICM and Ipsos MORI polls”

1 3 4 5
  1. Corbyn said on Marr ‘that ship has sailed’ although to be fair, when asked about The Norway Model he also said ‘I love Norway, they gave me a Christmas present’, so he might just have been dissembling after watching too much of Donald Trump at Davos.

  2. WB: @ Barbazenzero @GARJ @ CHRIS RILEY

    “About the only circumstance I can see [the SNP] supporting the Cons would be if HMG offered Scottish Independence without the chore of a referendum, so that Scotland could remain in the EU, perhaps with NI & Gibraltar as part of the Kingdom of Scotland.

    Somehow, I don’t see HMG being willing to go that far!”

    Depends on how pragmatic as opposed to ideologically Unionist the Tories are! Politically it would mean that in a house of commons without Scotland would give the Tories an overall majority they would have 305 seats out of a total of 591.
    In the recent era I would not rule out any level of cynical positioning.

    It is not an entirely incredible scenario to me, but I tend to think that Scots Indy off the back of brexit would probably require serious strides towards a United Ireland as part of the same package.

    On arithmetic, losing NI and Scotland would give 303 out of 569 [I think there are 316 tory MPs, 13 in Scotland and 22 seats in NI].

    To get to this situation would require, I think, a change of tory leadership to someone who was more concerned about brexit than about the Union, who is also prepared to ditch the DUP. And presentationally, it could be argued that as NI and Scotland had voted to remain in the EU, it was the amicable way out of an impasse.

    Worst impact would be on English Remainers, but overall, I tend to think that a hard brexit for E&W will ultimately lead to the cleanest resolution long term, as and when E&W seek to rejoin the EU.

    Ultimately, I see the Union as fundamentally broken. Politically, Scotland is probably 40 years ahead of E&W as a result of devolution and brexit puts a spotlight on the differences, such that while I could imagine a new settlement before the brexit referendum making the Union fit for purpose, I think the strains will be too great now.

  3. @ CARFREW – I don’t know if LDEM could pull off a rebrand/relaunch, the disturbing thing for them as a party is that they don’t even seem to want to try. My guess is they are happy to sit in the political background until after Brexit keeping their fingers crossed Brexit is a disaster and they campaign with ‘I told you so’

    Of course LAB are hoping for similar but they need a ‘goldilocks’ Brexit that is just bad enough to harm CON VI but not so bad to ruin their economic plans should they win the 2022 GE.

  4. @WB, Peter

    Perry was clearly referring to the shoutier subspecies of Brexiteer.

  5. Some wishful thinking on here today I think.

    Some on theft think the Tories will be so daft as to force a GE before they have to.

    Some on the right and centre think Labour will deselect dozens of MPs when in reality less than 5 might be vulnerable.

    On top of the Jo Swinson is going to lead an LD resurgence.

    Generational jump to James Cleverly anyone?

  6. EC’s transition guidelines can be found here:
    https://ec.europa.eu/commission/brexit-negotiations/negotiating-documents-article-50-negotiations-united-kingdom_en

    Press onto it already. BBC seem to have picked the key points in their reality check:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42860044

    Although only guidelines, it does seem that the phase1 fudge is going to stop talks moving forward – default being crash-out onto WTO trade terms and only pay legal minimum.

  7. @ JIM JAM – I didn’t say LDEM would necessarily see a resurgence with a relaunch under a new leader, simply that they should at least try something to remove the brand damage of the Clegg years and being in opposition flawling around at 7-8%ish in the polls shows they ought to do something. Little stunts like empty chairing Corbyn draw very little interest and people are bored of Cable’s constant Project Fear timing adjustments – we haven’t left yet, exit from Brexit, yawn, yawn.

    Swinson is odds on favourite for next LDEM leader, young, popular, etc. Cable is 74yrs old and would be 79 in a June 2022 GE. I very much doubt Cable will be leader into the next GE but see my reply to CARFREW about timing – I suspect all parties would rather wait until after Mar’19 to change leader. CON should have got rid of May in 2017 or immediately in the new year – the window to change leader until after Brexit has probably now passed and we’re stuck with her until Summer 2019 or my guess 2020.

  8. Fair enough Trevor.

  9. @trevor Warne – “Although only guidelines, it does seem that the phase1 fudge is going to stop talks moving forward – default being crash-out onto WTO trade terms and only pay legal minimum.”

    Very much doubt it. May and most of the government know that WTO terms would elicit a severe reaction from business. It wouldn’t take much for a sense of panic to emerge, and this would in all probability create the significant event that tends to move VI. Once that happens, Brexit falls, in all probability.

    There is insufficient support for a hard Brexit. The government knows this, and has been going for a soft exit as far as possible. They will make the compromises needed, after a suitable bit of choreographed huffing and puffing, and we won’t notice much difference.

  10. @ JIM JAM – as for next CON leader, Cleverly was always a long shot and hasn’t moved much at around 50-1, worth a cheeky fiver or so IMHO. I can see how he could come through as a fresh face, zero baggage, full leave candidate if the bigger Leave beasts knocked each other out in the early rounds before it went to the members. Smogg is more likely but at 5-1 that isn’t worth betting on IMHO and once Brexit is over his key appeal to CON members would have expired and since the public see him as a toff he’s hardly likely to win many marginal voters in marginal seats. I think Smogg would make an excellent opposition leader but can’t see him winning a majority at a GE – although a few years back no one gave Corbyn much of a chance so who knows (and I won’t mention the chances given to that American chap before he won)!

  11. @ ALEC – OK, talk us through the steps required to stop Brexit. VI irrelevant until nearer a GE and hasn’t budged anyway. By business I assume you mean Janus head lobby groups like CBI and SMMT who have been crying wolf over Project Farce for getting on for two years.

    Instead I’d suggest start with MP numbers and the democratic steps to attempt to revoke A50 or whatever other wishful thinking path you have to ‘Exit from Brexit’.

    I would fully expect a 11th hour delay and hasty min.deal before a default to full and instant WTO terms but with A50 triggered ‘crash out on WTO terms with minimum legal payment’ is the default scenario.

  12. Planet remain

    There is an air of unreality creeping onto this site whereby in some scenario the uk never leaves the EU and peace and harmony reign as we contentedly fail to achieve brexit and are trapped to forever go where Germany and France want us to go . In this imaginary world we pay over huge sums and federalize into a superstate happy in our imp*tence.
    Or on the other hand a large part of the electorate feels cheated by an elite who have subverted democracy using every avenue to influence the political process until their time comes again.Every referendum that we have to have for treaty change will be voted against or the act changed in a further attempt to stifle opinion.the papers will inflame anti -eu opinion at every turn.
    which is the reality?

  13. Just read the BBC’s stuff on the EU’s latest. The EU’s proposals seem all very sensible and in line with what the UK has so far agreed and what the Government has said it wants (if not explicitly, then at least it has accepted these things implicitly). Doubtless the rabid mob (apologies, TOH) will disagree, but heigh-ho.

    I note S Thomas’ continuing inability to distinguish between doubts about how Brexit will be carried out (the view most anti-Brexit people on this site are expressing) and a refusal to accept that Brexit will happen (no-one on this site, as far as I can see).

  14. Danny
    “Isnt that what happened?”

    I’m not sure the options were ever clear or that either main party really promoted much of a vision. I’m definitely sure the vision hasn’t been calmly and resolutely implemented since.

  15. Re: EU thoughts about UK’s exit

    As for Ireland and its border issue, mention has been made before on this site of W.E. Sellar’s observation in ‘1066 and all that’, concerning regarding Gladstone’s attempts to solve ‘the Irish question’:
    ‘…..unfortunately, whenever he was getting warm, the Irish secretly changed the Question’

    Of course, as we all know, this time, at least, it was the English who changed the question (with help from the Welsh) by voting to leave the EU.

    I note that in the Concise Oxford Dictionary of Quotations that, in 1888, Gladstone told the good people of Caernarfon that “We are part of the community of Europe and must do our duty as such”. How would Gladstone define that duty in present circumstances?

  16. I think the EU want rid of us. There will be no turning back as far as they are concerned. Perhaps Macron sees this as an opportunity for a rejuvenated Paris to benefit st the UK’s expense. It’s not just about what the UK wants.

  17. @Trevor Warne – “@ ALEC – OK, talk us through the steps required to stop Brexit. VI irrelevant until ……”

    Until it changes, is the point.

    Very few MP’s minds are fixed. The PM is a good example of this on Brexit. They go with what they think is the flow. It would just take a single high profile company announcement to shatter the illusion that a hard Brexit will be fine, and all bets are off.

    Like I have said ever since the referendum, I find it very hard to think of any PM that would sign the deal if polls suggested 60% against, even if there was no GE in the offing.

    The simplest scenario is that the PM asks parliament to approve a confirming vote, where Brexit is defeated. It’s really not that diffcult to envisage, if – and that’s the big if – a hard Brexit is proposed and voters take fright.

  18. @Alec

    If parliament wanted to vote down brexit then we are in second referendum territory. To overturn the vote on the basis of opinion polling would be portrayed as parliament vs the people – very uncomfortable place to be.

  19. @ALEC

    “It would just take a single high profile company announcement to shatter the illusion that a hard Brexit will be fine, and all bets are off.”

    We’ve had dozens, if not hundreds, of high profile company announcements that soft Brexit will harm the economy, let alone hard Brexit. What difference do you think one more will make?

    One thing that any Tory PM will be aware of is that their party’s attitude to the EU has bedevilled every leader since Major at the very least. They need to put the matter to bed and move on, as do we all, frankly. It’s the uncertainty that is harmful, more so than the actual type of Brexit, and there is little better recipe for uncertainty than kicking the issue back into the long grass by cooking up some kind of shabby arrangement to remain. Most businesses, like most voters, just want the issue over and done with.

  20. I meant a second referendum, not a vote in parliament. Eg, the PM getting spooked and asking the people to make the last decision.

    The event would be a factory closure – not something like a statement of concern.

    Hard Brexit would make something like that happen, even if it’s an over reaction.

  21. “About the only circumstance I can see [the SNP] supporting the Cons would be if”

    Hell freezes over and they agree to play Ice Hockey to the Death!

    Peter.

  22. After a hard day’s child minding, I clicked on this site hoping to see analysis of the ONS pub-lication on the asymmetry (and, therefore, significant unreliability) of the trade statistics pro-duced by government agencies like ONS.

    Given the number of folk on here, who happily quote ONS data to support their assertions, I was surprised to find that the issue doesn’t seem to have been raised.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/nationalaccounts/balanceofpayments/articles/asymmetriesintradedatadivingdeeperintoukbilateraltradedata/2018-01-29

  23. Specifically, the UK data held at the UN says that the UK has a $77 bn trade surplus in services while the data, from the countries with whom the UK trades, says that the UK has a $39 bn trade deficit.

    If the UK doesn’t actually have a trade surplus in services, while having a trade deficit in goods, then the entire economic strategy of successive UK governments may be built on sand.

  24. @S Thomas

    “There is an air of unreality creeping onto this site whereby in some scenario the uk never leaves the EU and peace and harmony reign as we contentedly fail to achieve brexit and are trapped to forever go where Germany and France want us to go”

    ——-

    Not really, it’s just trying to consider all possibilities, from No Brexit, to BINO, to various flavours of Soft and Hard Brexit, to crashing out, to leaving but rejoining, etc.

    It’s just being thorough because let’s face it, even quite a few Leavers didn’t actually think UK would vote to leave in the first place.

  25. “We’ve had dozens, if not hundreds, of high profile company announcements that soft Brexit will harm the economy, let alone hard Brexit. What difference do you think one more will make?”

    ———-

    Out of interest, Recent IPSOS MORI polling of Captains of Industry…

    https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/two-thirds-ipsos-mori-captains-not-confident-governments-ability-negotiate-eu

    “Two thirds of Ipsos MORI Captains not confident in Government’s ability to negotiate with the EU”

  26. @S Thomas

    “Or on the other hand a large part of the electorate feels cheated by an elite who have subverted democracy using every avenue to influence the political process until their time comes again.Every referendum that we have to have for treaty change will be voted against or the act changed in a further attempt to stifle opinion.the papers will inflame anti -eu opinion at every turn.
    which is the reality?”

    ——–

    Sure, that’s one of the factors, the role of the press inflaming passions, Although in quite a few cases, it was by ramping up concerns over immigration rather than the Sovereignty thing.

    It was immigration that became the number one concern in issue polling, not Sovereignty, concerns about an unaccountable elite etc.

    So yes, we know there are pressures towards Brexit, we are already aware of that, on account of voting Brexit. Thus the interesting thing is whether there might possibly be anything to confound this, e.g. business pressure, demographic change etc.

  27. Buzzfeed News have seen a UK Government report called “EU Exit Analysis – Cross Whitehall Briefing” from DeXEU and dated January 2018, which suggests each of most plausible outcomes of Brexit will be economically damaging to the UK and all of is regions.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/albertonardelli/the-governments-own-brexit-analysis-says-the-uk-will-be?utm_term=.gfQrB4XYm#.exD5oxw1d

  28. New thread on the BES data

  29. @JIM JAM

    “Some wishful thinking on here today I think.
    Some on theft think the Tories will be so daft as to force a GE before they have to.”

    ———

    Indeed it might be wishful thinking in some quarters but let’s face it, self-immolation among parties does happen, e.g. what happened under Major, and what Nulabbers did to Corbyn. May clearly has issues given what happened in the election, the vulnerability of minority government, etc., but whether this actually results in forcing a GE is something else.

  30. Alberto,
    ” I’m definitely sure the vision hasn’t been calmly and resolutely implemented since.”
    Indeed, but they didnt get past the stage of presenting their plan in a manifesto and getting it approved.

  31. A couple of weeks ago I suggested that we might end up in a “reverse 1980s” scenario with the Tories splitting over Brexit resulting in a clear Labour victory at the next election (much as the Labour split in 1981 resulted in Conservative victories for the following three elections).

    The few commentson this suggested that Labour was more likely than the Tories to split. But the last couple of days, and notably the willingness of so many Tory MPs to call for a leadership election that would surely risk precipitating such a split, convinces me further that this is a likely scenario. While this would certainly shake up the current polling stalemate between the two parties, it could also have some unexpected impacts. How many 2017 UKIP-Labour switchers would vote for a Tory (English nationalist) party)? How many anti-Corbyn Labour supporters and LibDems would support a Tory (liberal globalisation) party? Do any of you believe this is becoming more than a purely hypothetical set of questions?

  32. @ALEC
    “I’m sorry Peter – I don’t like to do this”

    Oh I think you do. Childish insults appear to be your stock in trade, although I’m not the usual target of that particular obsession.

    It’s a shame. The level of debate here rarely stoops to toddlers’ play pen levels, which is its main attraction, but when it does, it’s usually you.

    I could engage on the substantive point, but perhaps I’ll wait till you’ve grown up.

1 3 4 5