There are two new voting intention polls in Sunday’s papers – ICM for the Sun on Sunday and Opinium for the Observer.

ICM in the Sun on Sunday have topline figures of CON 41%(-1), LAB 42%(+2), LDEM 7%(-1), UKIP 4%(-1). Fieldwork was Tuesday to Thursday, and changes are from the ICM/Guardian poll a few days before. Changes are within the margin of error, but unlike ICM’s last poll it’s now Labour who are marginally ahead. Every single poll ICM have published since the general election has had Labour and the Conservatives within two points of each other.

Amongst other things ICM also asked about the Tory leadership. Only 23% of respondents think Theresa May should step down now, but only 35% think she should fight the next general election. A further 26% think she should go at some later later, either after Brexit (15%) or just before the election (11%). As with other polls, the public don’t seem to have much appetite for any particular successor as Tory lead – Boris Johnson leads, but on only 11%, ahead of Ruth Davidson on 6%. No tabs yet, but the Sun report is here

Secondly there is a new Opinium poll for the Observer. They too have a small Labour lead, with topline figures of CON 39%(-1), LAB 41%(-1), LDEM 7%(+1), UKIP 6%(+1). Changes are once again insignificant – the Tory leads in YouGov and ICM straight after the Brexit deal aren’t reflected in the latest polls, and were either just co-incidence, or a brief blip on the back of good publicity. The underlying trend remains one of stability, with Labour a tad ahead of the Conservatives and no obvious movement in support.

The full tabs for the Opinium poll are here and contain a lot of background questions. The Conservative party are seen as the most divided party – 47% think they are divided, 38% united. The Labour party are seen as united by 42% and divided by 40% – so while stories of Labour infighting are no longer constantly in the media in the way they were before the general election, the party are still seen as divided by much of the public (if not as divided as the Tories!). On the Tory leadership Opinium show a similar picture to ICM – 27% think she should go now, 28% think should should fight the next election, 23% think she should go later (either post-Brexit, or pre-election).

On the EU, Opinium found a negative reaction to Theresa May’s negotiations so far (though not as negative as in YouGov’s tracker – possibly because Opinium ask about May personally rather than the government as a whole, possibly because Opinium ask about approval rather than doing well or badly). 30% approve of how May has handled the negotiations so far, 45% of people disapprove. Opinium found 37% support for a second referendum once the terms had been agreed, 49% were opposed. For the type of Brexit, 39% of respondents would rather Britain remained in the single market (even if it meant freedom of movement continued), 33% would rather Britain stopped freedom of movement (even if it meant leaving the single market).

Finally, the Independent reports a BMG poll that has Remain with a ten point lead over Leave in a referendum vote tomorrow. This has, as ever, caused some over-excitement on social media.

My normal caveat on unusual and interesting polls is to wait and see if it is reflected in other polls. In this case we don’t have to wait, the BMG poll was actually conducted over a week ago (5th-8th Dec), meaning that we have already seen the results of other polls conducted after this one, and they don’t show any large movement towards Remain. The ICM/Guardian poll released earlier this week was conducted 8th-10th December, and had results of Remain 46%, Leave 43% – a Remain lead, but a far smaller one. YouGov’s regular tracker on whether people think Britain was right or wrong to vote to leave was asked on 10th-11th Dec, and showed 44% think we are right to leave, 45% wrong to leave… again, typical of recent results.

The other caveat to consider is that the poll does not actually show any great shift in opinion directly from Leave to Remain, most of those voters are unchanged. The large Remain lead is almost wholly down to people who did not vote in the 2016 referendum. Many polls show those who did not vote in 2016 now saying they would vote remain, but the divide in this one is extreme. I am somewhat sceptical about leads that rely upon people who didn’t vote last time suddenly turning out to vote one way or another (particularly in polls that aren’t weighted by likelihood to vote!). While I am sure that there are some people who didn’t vote in 2016 who would now (those who have turned 18 and those who didn’t realise how close it would be), I suspect the sort of “non-voters” who turn up in opinion polls are rather more likely to vote than actual non-voters. The full tabs (and a measured write up from BMG) are here.

On any subject you feel strongly about it is easy to convince yourself that the polls showing what you’d like to see are somehow more accurate, and that polls showing less positive things are wrong. That would be an error. As ever, the best way of looking at a finding like this is look at all the polls, and consider the long term trend, rather than get overexcited about individual polls that put out unusual results. My opinion on whether Britain is changing its mind on Brexit is unchanged since I wrote about it here – if you look at the referendum VI questions from Survation and BMG, or the right/wrong decision question from YouGov, there does appear to be a genuine movement towards Remain since last year… but as yet it is only small, and the country remains quite finely divided between Remain and Leave.


595 Responses to “New ICM and Opinium polls”

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  1. The whole Brexit issue can be resolved quite simply.

    Once the terms of the separation are known; hold a second “In/Out” referendum.

    If the people still want to leave, they will vote leave.

    If they have changed their mind and want to remian, they will vote remain.

    It is the only democratic solution. Anything less smacks of running scared of the electorate.

  2. We have the usual shrewd and balanced assessment here from AW, and give thanks.

    We Remainers need to keep persuading, to shift opinion enough to stop exit.

  3. David in France

    Such a referendum would certainly test public opinion, but whether it would materially change anything is another matter.

    For example, the thorny question of whether the tabling of Article 50 can be revoked and, if so, under what conditions?

    Few would disagree that the ECJ is the only body that can provide a definitive answer – but no one has asked them yet,

    That should change in the New Year. A cross-party group of SNP, SLab and SGP politicians are about to petition the Court of Session for a ruling, but since that court can’t make such a ruling, for the matter to be urgently sent to the ECJ for decision.

  4. Alec

    “You have already been mightily disappointed, with the news on the transition arrangements only adding to your sense of deflation. ”

    Ireally don’t understand where you get that from.

    I’m not deflated about anything, even the fact that my cancer is coming back slowly. I’m a positve person, I’m dealing with the later by having an experimental scan not yet approved by the NHS.

    As to Brexit I am happy to see what happens, let’s face it neither you nor I will have any influence on the outcome, we had our chance to do that in the referendum, and my side won. I still expectr us to leave without a trade deal, not what i want but at least that will meet my main Brexit desires. The only people who seem deflated are the Remainers and they have been in deep gloom since the referendum as can be seen daily on these pages.

    As I told Somerjhohn you need some of my wisdom, step back, relax and enjoy life.

  5. TOH

    As we discussed many threads ago, there is a sense in which us oldies have learnt “wisdom”

    But that does entail my having as much wisdom as you.

  6. I was watching Songs of Praise earlier this afternoon from Winchester and thinking there must be some in this packed congregation with the same ardent Brexit views that ToH articulates here.

    They looked sensible people, hardly go-ahead but disciplined, well-meaning and unlikely to have cast votes last June without some knowledge of the basics. Then I thought what matters to these folk is keeping up their appearance and having satisfaction in themselves being in control, as evidenced by the attitudes we hear on the ECJ.

    But I feel these Brexiteers are out-of-touch with modern world realities, just like the programme makers seemed out-of-touch with modern church music. They do not comprehend the present economies of scale, the power of big corporations, the pressing problems of climate change and over-population.

    And, if ON is still observing, it`s for the same reasons that I don`t think Scotland should try to be independent.

    I realise other regions have Brexiteers not driven by the same factors as the affluent of Winchester, folk more concerned with desperate needs for more cash for the NHS and mass-gullible when they see big money “savings” written on the side of a bus.

  7. Davwel

    Could your comments be more condescending or patronising, the shear arrogance of painting leavers as somehow being rather dim and unable to grasp what’s going on I personally find very distasteful.
    You like a few others on here who are forever going on about the intelligent remainers suffering at the hands of those nasty small minded leavers is quite frankly boorish in the extreme as well as being untrue ,for goodness sake grow up.

  8. Been out all day visting Grand daughter.

    What do I find but the Disgusted from Tunbridge Wells faction of Remainers has found yet another demographic group on which to vent its nasty & capacious spleen on.

    Tiring of their fantasies about the rabid ant-EU attitudes which the over 60s developed when reading their childhood comics & popping into the local Odeon for a bit of Roy Rogers, they move on the the innocent church goers of Winchester.

    Are these people really in posession of their faculties one wonders ?

  9. @Oldnat – “Few would disagree that the ECJ is the only body that can provide a definitive answer – but no one has asked them yet,”

    I assume you mean whether the UK could revoke A50? A50 could readily be revoked if the UK asks and the CoM agrees. This isn’t prevented by the treaty, so is allowed.

  10. I might be wrong, but I seem to recall that at the time just prior to the Referendum, that the word from the E U , was that there would be one and one referendum only. Of course they were expecting the result to be somewhat different.

  11. @Anthony W

    “On any subject you feel strongly about it is easy to convince yourself that the polls showing what you’d like to see are somehow more accurate, and that polls showing less positive things are wrong. ”

    The Original Sin of most UKPR junkies (of which I was one once, but now well on the road to recovery, albeit with the occasional lapse like today!) :-). I too ate the Forbidden Fruit of TNS and Angus Reed and was accordingly condemned to eternal psephological damnation, so can speak with experience. Now liberated, I take a sanguine and faintly amused approach to it all, assuming that most of these polls are the purest poppycock. Hilariously, it would appear that most professional pollsters share this baleful view too!

    Like most innately fallible human endeavours, it’s always best to follow the money. Who is commissioning these polls and why? Thereby hangs an interesting tale. I don’t blame the pollsters; I’d take the money too, but how are these usually totally inaccurate opinion polls informing the public discourse? I’m firmly of the view that they should be banned during general election campaigns and, whilst they may have some part to play at other times, I think they are so seriously in disrepute now that maybe thought needs to be applied to where and when, and quite possibly who.

    If only to stop old duffers like Andrew Neil cherry picking isolated polls to make some erroneous political point on one of his 35 BBC commissioned political shows!

    :-)

  12. Alec

    If you are correct in your interpretation, then the ECJ will doubtless confirm that (as I suspect they would.

    However, there has been no definitive ruling, so your interpretation remains just that.

  13. Turk and Colin:

    What strange and wrong comments.

    I will not be shut up for saying 4 kind things about the churchgoers of Winchester, folk with many of my own characteristics. I certainly did not say they were dim.

    Nor have I ever commented on cinemas and comics.

    It seems Leavers are getting rattled when they try to prevent any understanding of their varied motives.

  14. Winchester voted 59:41 REMAIN

  15. Gordon

    “I might be wrong, but I seem to recall that at the time just prior to the Referendum, that the word from the E U , was that there would be one and one referendum only.”

    Whether we hold another referendum or not has nothing to do with the EU. We can hold one a day if we like.

  16. DAVID COLBY

    @”Winchester voted 59:41 REMAIN”

    Indeed-but what DAVWEL had cleverly spotted was a group from the 41%.

    He was able to identify them by a Holmsian method as yet unfathomed by the Polling Companies.-

    ie-They were Church goers-in addition to which they were “keeping up their appearance” and “having satisfaction in themselves “.

    Davwel is a person of deeply interesting psychological traits. I feel sure that Adler’s Superiority/Inferiority Complex will be one of them.

    Perhaps we can tease a few more of DAVWEL’s interesting prejudices from him as time goes by.

  17. TOH

    “As I told Somerjhohn you need some of my wisdom, step back, relax and enjoy life.”

    It’s a pity your wisdom didn’t alllow you to do just that whilst remaining in the EU…

  18. With accurate data, looking across all polls and assessing the trend would be sound advice.

    For the last two elections it would make one wrong.

    I am afraid I cannot agree with AW on that. Garbage in, garbage out.

  19. Davwel

    And, if ON is still observing, it`s for the same reasons that I don`t think Scotland should try to be independent.

    I find the observation of other people’s political stances fascinating! Especially interesting are the ones that surround concepts like “union” or “independence”, and the Marlowe-like chain of emotions that are dragged along with them. A lot of that is more to do with people’s sense of identity, rather than the rational efficacy of having independent freedom of action in some matters, while enjoying the benefits of united action by a community of states in others.

    GORDON’s assumption that something he heard about the EU and referendums being significant is one example. DAVID COLBY’s that England’s legal identity had been ended in 1707 is another.

    As to your hang-up on “Independence”, I find it hard to comprehend.

    Like me you want Scotland and rUK to remain in the EU.

    Like me, if Scotland remains in the UK, you want Scotland to have Devo-Max.

    Where we differ is on what role (if any) Westminster should have in the governance of Scotland that is/would be better than Scotland as an independent member of the EU should have. If you think it should have any, then you should be showing what benefits are provided by such an arrangement.

    From my perspective, the UK is “too wee for the big things” that you mention, and these are better handled at EU level.

    It is also “too big for the wee things”, and education and health etc etc are best handled in Scotland.

    So, in this interconnected modern world, what is it that you actually want the UK Government to do in/for Scotland?

  20. A serious conflation to confuse churchgoers with people who want to be on to Telly – a genuine songs of praise would have rather few attendees than present for recordings I would suggest.

    Steroetyping and making assumptions about people we have never met based on pre-conceived notions is egregious whether from the left or right or remain or leave.

  21. TonyBTG

    My wisdom says remaining in the EU would be a disaster for the UK, hence my vote to leave.

  22. OLDNAT

    I think we can agree that both of us have wisdom aquired over many years. However our wisdom is taking us in different directions.

  23. TOH

    My wisdom says the opposite.

    Is your wisdom greater than mine? Your comment that remainders should give in and adopt a little wisdom and accept things seems to imply that.

    That not wisdom, I could say what it is, but I’d get moderated. Suffice to say, its not wisdom.

  24. Jim Jam

    “A serious conflation to confuse churchgoers with people who want to be on to Telly”

    Having friends in choirs bussed across the country to take part in such programmes, it can also be seen as the keenness of broadcasters to portray a traditional conservative view of societal behaviour, rather than the reality.

    It’s like the nuttier Leaver imagination of happy white children playing football in the streets, while the Hovis boy cycles by, or kilted Highland Tories dancing an elegant schottische at a ball.

    Away with such vanities!

  25. ToH

    Thus, we can also agree that wisdom (which was actually behaviourally described in the research) has absolutely nothing to do with any ability to make a “good” decision.

    So, not much point in going on about it, is there?

  26. Colin:

    You are jumping to conclusions and hitting out, something you don`t usually do.

    I did not spot the Leavers in that congregation at Winchester, and considered the attenders as a homogenous group doing their best to put on a good show.

    But they fitted other established political facts about Southern England. At GEs there are high turn-outs in very safe Tory seats, much higher than in the North for equally safe Labour seats. To the Northerner, it`s the outcome that matters and if the seat will clearly be won and other better things to do intrude on election day, they don`t vote.

    In the South it`s the size of the majority and the satisfaction of being part of it.

    I know these are generalisations and there are many folk in each region who don`t fit.

    Nevertheless it is important for the UK for people on opposing sides in Brexit to try to understand the other`s motivations, so that a sensible compromise can be reached. Shouting down opponents and calling them nasty doesn`t help, and some would think contained a touch of arrogance.

  27. ON @ 6.14pm

    A main reason for not wanting Scottish independence meantime is that this would increase the chance of a far-right government in London. And I reckon this would have a bad impact on an independent Scotland.

    But I am swithering. If we had a hard Brexit and people like yourself putting the case moderately, then I would move to the likely-YES majority.

  28. JIM JAM

    @”A serious conflation to confuse churchgoers with people who want to be on to Telly ”

    I’m really surprised that you could write that Jim Jam.

    One certainly lives & learns on UKPR.

    Anyway-the carols were lovely in Winchester Cathedral.-the songs which Davwel thought “out-of-touch with modern church music. ” !!

    ……….sung by people he considers ” out-of-touch with modern world realities,” !!

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/b09kb5km/songs-of-praise-christmas-in-winchester

  29. DAVWEL

    @” Shouting down opponents and calling them nasty doesn`t help, and some would think contained a touch of arrogance.”

    You really are an interesting chap Davwel.

    May I ask-do you ever re-read your own posts ? :-) :-) :-)

  30. @ToH Very best wishes for your cancer treatment. I am sorry it is needed.

    On Brexit – you wanted to leave with a trade deal. How much would you compromise on leaving for how much of a deal? Difficult question to answer I know but can you give any sense of the trade’-offs?

  31. Davwel

    It would be trite and unreasonable of me (after your reasonable post) to say “Let’s become another state of the USA, then, and stop another Trump!”, so I won’t do it (again).

    (The wisdom of old age and the Yuletide joy doesn’t stop one from being a carnaptious bugger sometimes – just for the hell of it) :-)

  32. @GORDON

    “Of course they were expecting the result to be somewhat different.”

    Really? What makes you say that?

  33. @ Charles
    You should know better than to ask TOH a question – he will be too busy with his allotment or watching rugby to answer.
    Perhaps we should ask his wife, who undoubtedly will have nearly (but not quite) as much wisdom as TOH.
    I did once know a Howard Thomas.
    I wonder if S. Thomas is TOH’s wife.
    She certainly seems to exude the same brand of wisdom.

  34. Colin,

    Let me put in to context.

    Friends of my parents are churchgoers and when their church was chosen to be on Song of Praise suddenly many people who had never been for many a year or ever became religious and went for a fe w weeks leading up to the recording to ensure a place in the congregation only to disappear again afterwards. My parents friends were not impressed to say the least.

  35. Guymonde

    True – TOH has never responded properly to any question I’ve asked. His answers normally involve a fall back onto an unwavering faith in Britain’s future post Brexit based on some kind of second sight.

    Perhaps he is Melisandre from Game of Thrones – he’s seen it in the fire.

    But let’s not pick on TOH for a change – fun though it is.

    It’s the season of goodwill after all.

  36. Maybe worth highlighting what psychologists mean by “wisdom” –

    https://www.psychologytoday.com/basics/wisdom

    Wisdom is one of those qualities difficult to define—because it encompasses so much—but which people generally recognize when they encounter it. And it is encountered most obviously in the realm of decision-making. Psychologists tend to agree that wisdom involves an integration of knowledge, experience, and deep understanding that incorporates tolerance for the uncertainties of life as well as its ups and downs. There’s an awareness of how things play out over time, and it confers a sense of balance. It can be acquired only through experience, but by itself, experience does not automatically confer wisdom. Only now are researchers beginning to look into the social, emotional, and cognitive processes that transmute experience into wisdom.

    Wise people generally share an optimism that life’s problems can be solved and experience a certain amount of calm in facing difficult decisions. Intelligence—if only anyone could figure out exactly what it is—may be necessary for wisdom, but it definitely isn’t sufficient; an ability to see the big picture, a sense of proportion, and considerable introspection also contribute to its development.

    Because it involves learning from experience, it is commoner among those with more experience of life – but the elderly aren’t necessarily wise!

    As my Mum said of her sister – “She doesn’t have 7 years experience of India. She has 1 year of living in the American Diplomatic Compound in Delhi, repeated 7 times”,

    A wise woman, my Mum!

  37. Colin:

    There you go again, jumping in without the facts.

    The carols were mostly in a different church in Winchester, not the cathedral. And if I as a choir singer singing these very same carols in the next few days call myself “out-of-touch” would you describe me as self-critical or a realist?

    JJ has it right for some people, but certainly not the majority, from my experience of doing these televised programmes.

    But if you had been listening JJ, would you have approved of While Shepherds being sung to that boring tune “Winchester New”, albeit from Wales. They would do things better in Yorkshire and surrounds.

  38. davwel: A main reason for not wanting Scottish independence meantime is that this would increase the chance of a far-right government in London. And I reckon this would have a bad impact on an independent Scotland.

    But I am swithering. If we had a hard Brexit and people like yourself putting the case moderately, then I would move to the likely-YES majority.

    A reason for me wanting Independence for Scotland is that if there were a far-right Westminster gov’t for England, it would have less scope to have a bad impact on Scotland – and Scotland would have far less complicity in that gov’t, regardless.

  39. TCO:

    Yes a far-right government in London would have less scope to have bad impacts here, were we independent.

    But there`s a greater chance of such a government getting elected in England alone. And I feel for the many who will suffer in England.

    It`s balancing these aspects, and you can persuade me in weeks to come, not meantime on this thread.

  40. Davwel

    “It`s balancing these aspects”

    That’s a fairly good description of wisdom!

  41. @Davwel

    Speaking as someone who worships at another cathedral outside London, I would say that the average active member of the Church of England is much more concerned about climate change than the average person on the street. I would also guess that the congregation voted about 80% remain (but this is pure guesswork), unlike the county that surrounds us that voted to leave.

  42. As Anthony says BMG are explicit about where most of the change in EU Ref comes from:

    However, readers should also be aware that when we dig a little deeper into the data, it reveals that this shift has come predominantly from those who did not actually vote in the 2016 Referendum. Around nine in ten Leave and Remain voters say they are still unchanged in their view on whether to leave or remain.

    But what they don’t point out is that the way they weight their sample gives the 2016 non-voters (who are 67% to 16% in favour of Remain[1]). They make up 23% of the relevant weighted sample (roughly double what they were before weighting). Effectively BMG are asssuming that nearly everyone will vote in a new EU Referendum. When the turnout for the last one was 72%, they are assuming that a rerun would be over 90%[2]

    Now it’s very possible that turnout would rise for a rerun and certainly the make-up of those who vote will change. Some new voters will have reached 18 or changed their nationality, while others who did vote will have died, emigrated or whatever. More important, as BMG say, some may not have bothered because they though Remain would win anyway[3]. A new poll might bring such people out. Though they might not all vote Remain, it would increase the turnout, but a jump to those sort of levels seems very implausible.

    Removing the upweighting of the non-voters and putting then in at their original value (156 in this sample which BMG weight to 299) and reweighting the Remain and Leave votes in compensation, gives a new figure of Remain 49% and Leave 45%. This roughly the sort of figures we are seeing in other polls and is if anything ambitious in assuming that those who didn’t vote in 2016 but say they will now, are as likely to do so as those who did.

    I don’t know why some pollsters insist on upgrading those who didn’t vote in this way (Kantar has done similar on VI sometimes), but it has the potential to mislead by quite a way.

  43. [1] I’m using the figures before the squeeze question, so the balance is those who replied “Don’t know” or refused to answer.

    [2] While Anthony says that BMG don’t weighted by LTV, as they do say elsewhere that their “Base weights only of those who are likely to vote (Including Squeeze Q)”. The number excluded this way seems to be around 6% of the original sample. While this is plausible enough for the level of a ‘Would not vote’ option in another pollster, allowing for it would still imply a 90% or so turnout.
    One other thing about the BMG is that they ask Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union, or leave the European Union? rather that how people would vote in another referendum. It could make a difference, though variations in wording between other polls (eg YouGov’s ‘right or wrong’) seem to create little variation as people read it as a referendum question.

    [3] Ashcroft found 70% of voters – including 54% of Leave – thought this:
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/How-the-UK-voted-Full-tables-1.pdf#page=17

  44. @TOH
    Sorry to hear your prostate cancer is progressing. I too have advanced pc, I believe I am around 20 years younger than you, and wonder if this explains why I have had access to at least two ‘cutting edge’ and life saving procedures on the NHS, for example SABR (stereotactic ablative radiotherapy) on metastatic disease in the spine and pelvis. You on the other hand have had to find and presumably fund treatment yourself, I can only conclude this is a function of age, ie the NHS will not fund treatment if one has reached a certain cut off point. As you will know pc is much more aggressive the younger you are, so there may be a certain rough and ready logic to treating younger men as a matter of priority. Best of luck, btw.

  45. COLIN

    ” they move on the the innocent church goers of Winchester.”

    They are actually guilty.

  46. Colin

    Davwel may well be right about the Brexit-y nature of church congregations. According to Ashcroft:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/How-the-UK-voted-Full-tables-1.pdf#page=10

    those identifying as Christians were 58% Leavers, more than other religions (or none). Though it is more likely to related to the age profile of such groups as anything else, there are strong links between Leave and social conservatism as well, which may be correlated with churchgoing.

    Also the tendency of Songs of Praise to attract ‘worshippers’ never seen before has been a standing joke on religious circles for many decades. Though maybe it’s less of an attraction nowadays, as it seems more difficult to avoid being on television than otherwise.

  47. Thanks RichardW for your information.

    I believe our Church of Scotland congregation is even more inclined to Remain and evangelise on climate change than that in your near-London cathedral. Eco-congregation and Christian Aid literature are prominent and nobody grumbles.

    And I doubt if we have any Leavers.

  48. Roger Mexico: Davwel may well be right about the Brexit-y nature of church congregations. According to Ashcroft those identifying as Christians were 58% Leavers, more than other religions (or none). Though it is more likely to related to the age profile of such groups as anything else, there are strong links between Leave and social conservatism as well, which may be correlated with churchgoing.

    I think that there is a factor to be teased out here. Those who self identify as christians for a poll are not necessarily exclusively those who would be identified by others as christians. Besides the likely participants in Songs of Praise, you will find others who might attend worship regularly, but not wish associate with the TV program.

    And a big factor in making 58% of self identifying christians leavers is probably those of a white identity far right persuasion who self identify as christian in order to mean nothing more or less than that they are not muslim. These people will not feature in either of the 2 groups I described.

    You would probably find significant differences in brexit position between the 2 groups I describe.

  49. David Colby,
    “Winchester voted 59:41 REMAIN”

    and church attendance is dwindling, so they are unlikely to be a representative sample. Could even have been specially bussed in from nerby constituencies.

    Davwell,
    ” it is important for the UK for people on opposing sides in Brexit to try to understand the other`s motivations, so that a sensible compromise can be reached. ”

    I think I posted on the last thread on the unlikelihood that this will happen. You cant be a little bit pregnant. The EU is a trade deal and someone in the past posted a link arguing that any trade deal always exhibits the general characteristics of the EU, and any new deal with the EU will look more and more like the old deal the more extensive it is. And leavers want a very strong new deal with the EU. So they can never be satisfied, never mind any thought of compromise with other groups.

    Remainers want to remain, so whichever bit of membership we leave out, will be a loss to them. Few politicians want to end immigration, just rebrand it. The lot in government at the moment do not seem keen on returning power to westminster, never mind holyrood, but I am not suggesting their opponents would feel differently in power. (although normally this conflict does not exist, and it the circumstance of a minority government which highlights the conflict between democratic government and the westminster implementation thereof)

    Today someone on the TV was discussing the adviseability of staying in the common fisheries policy. There will be nothing left worth leaving quite soon.

    Turk,
    “You like a few others on here who are forever going on about the intelligent remainers suffering at the hands of those nasty small minded leavers”

    I remain convinced, “its the economy, stupid”. All of them, both sides, decided on this basis as they always do. If there is any point at all to education, then you would expect the more educated to make more accurate decisions. In the event, the more educated voted remain.

    I seem to recall the groups 65+ and higher educational attainment voted oppositely, leave and remain respectively, yet obviously they overlap. The existence of one group having overlapping members with another doesnt invalidate the argument that each was a driver to their choice. Anyone will make a decision using the tools of analysis available to them, based on the facts they are aware of (or at least, believe).

    If its a fact to you that the Uk has demonstrated through example that it can stand alone against the world, then you might be more inclined to believe it can do well outside the EU. If you think it could not possibly do so based on what you have seen and experienced, then you might reach an opposite conclusion.

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