Communicate’s monthly poll for the Independent is out. The headline figures with changes from their poll last month are CON 37%(+2), LAB 32%(+1), LDEM 18%(-1). The poll was conducted between the 22nd and 24th June, so fieldwork would have been conducted after Gordon Brown’s job offer to Liberal Democrat lords, and just after the end of hte European summit that agreed the new treaty.

The poll clearly isn’t telling the same story as the recent MORI poll – Communicate still have a reputation for being somewhat erratic, but they have adopted past vote weighting in recent months so their polls should be more stable. There isn’t yet any clear “Brown boost” here, if anything the Conservatives are recovering – though I hasten to add that the movements are not large enough to be significant.

The picture in the polls seem somewhat confusing at the moment – with some polls showing Labour continuing to catch the Conservatives (or in the case of MORI, overtake them), others showing them faultering, or the Tories moving ahead again. The broader picture is still one of the Conservative lead falling compared to a couple of months back – as should be expected given Labour’s change of leader and the attendent publicity, but beyond that we seem to be in a period of flux. We should be having a feast of polls over the next week or two to herald the arrival of the new Prime Minister, so hopefully we’ll end up with a clearer picture…though I wouldn’t bank on it.


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