Survation have a poll in today’s Mail on Sunday. Topline figures are CON 37%(-1), LAB 45%(+1), LDEM 6%(-1). Fieldwork was Thursday and Friday and changes are since early October.

The eight point Labour lead is the largest any poll has shown since the election, so has obviously attracted some attention. As regular readers will know, Survation carry out both telephone and online polls. Their telephone method is unique to them, so could easily explain getting different results (Ipsos MORI still use phone polling, but they phone randomly generated numbers (random digit dialling), as opposed to Survation who phone actual numbers randomly selected from telephone databases). However, this was an online poll, and online there is nothing particularly unusual about Survation’s online method that might explain the difference. Survation use an online panel like all the other online polls, weight by very similar factors like age, gender, past vote, referendum vote and education, use self-reported likelihood to vote and exclude don’t knows. There are good reasons why their results are better for Labour than those from pollsters showing the most Tory results like Kantar and ICM (Kantar still use demographics in their turnout model, ICM reallocate don’t knows) but the gap compared to results from MORI and YouGov don’t have such an easy explanation.

Looking at the nuts and bolts of the survey, there’s nothing unusual about the turnout or age distribution. The most striking thing that explains the strong Labour position of the poll is that Survation found very few people who voted Labour in 2017 saying they don’t know how they would vote now. Normally even parties who are doing well see a chunk of their vote from the last election now saying they aren’t sure what they would do, but only 3% of Labour’s 2017 vote told Survation they weren’t sure how they would vote in an election, compared to about 10% in other polls. Essentially, Survation are finding a more robust Labour vote.

Two other interesting findings worth highlighting. One is a question on a second referendum – 50% said they would support holding a referendum asking if people supported the terms of a Brexit deal, 34% said they would be opposed. This is one of those questions that get very different answers depending on how you ask it – there are plenty of other questions that find opposition, and I’m conscious this question does not make it clear whether it would be a referendum on “accept deal or stay in EU”, “accept deal or continue negotiations” or “accept deal or no deal Brexit”. Some of these would be less popular than others. Nevertheless, the direction of travel is clear – Survation asked the same question back in April when there was only a five point lead for supporting a referendum on the deal, now that has grown to sixteen points (50% support, 34% opposed).

Finally there was a question on whether Donald Trump’s visit to the UK should go ahead. 37% think it should, 50% think it should not. This echoes a YouGov poll yesterday which found 31% think it should go ahead, 55% think it should not. I mention this largely as an antidote to people being mislead by twitter polls suggesting people want the visit to go ahead – all recent polls with representative samples suggest the public are opposed to a visit.

Tabs for the Survation poll are here.


1,082 Responses to “Survation/Mail on Sunday – CON 37, LAB 45, LDEM 6”

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  1. Given that a unusual number of labour voters are sticking with Labour I’d be inclined to think that Labour are ahead but not by as much as 8%.

    As other Pols have it more like 2% I’d hazard at guess at 4% +/-1.

    Peter.

  2. Interesting similarity between the percentage of UK voters who think the state visit should go ahead and the percentage of US voters who think Trump is doing a good job. (About 1/3 in both cases.)

  3. nah – Labour are ahead by a country mile.

    Let’s test it with an election, shall we?

  4. @NickP

    You make that sound like a threat! Bring It ON!

  5. Paula

    I absolutely and utterly can’t wait.

  6. One other thing I noticed in this poll was the net trade between Tory and Labour. This poll had 5% of 2017 Tory voters who were definitely going to vote, as voting Labour now. Only 1% in the other direction. Even if everything else about the 2017 election was maintained, including turnout patterns – this alone would give Labour a lead of 1 point (a swing of about 1.8%; closing the 2.5 point gap to 1.03 in their favour).

    The numbers are pretty small but in the first few months the net swing from Tory to Lab was pretty much 0, cancelling itself out, whereas now the crossbreaks consistently show a net Con-Lab swing. I’ve seen 5% a couple of times, but this is definitely one of the best / if not the best I’ve seen on this measure. Most of the time I see 4%-2%, or something like that.

    The slightly bigger Labour leads we saw from other pollsters shortly after the election were largely down to Conservative voters going to undecided, not because Labour were winning them over. Whereas now Labour have made a slight dent in this according to polls.

    So, in addition to Anthony’s comment about Survation finding a more robust Labour vote, I think this was the other important factor leading to the strong lead in this poll.

    Of course I’m not necessarily commenting on whether this is real – I always take these polls with a huge pinch of salt these days.

    Based on this, my gut feeling says Peter Cairns is right – a 4 point lead or so would make sense – especially in light of May’s falling approval ratings.

    I believe ICM also released a poll today in the Sun showing a 1 point lead for Labour (tables not yet published, or party figures other than the 1 point lead). This is the first to show anything other than a tie for months. Usually before their ‘don’t know’ adjustment, Labour are 2 points or so ahead, so if that found a 3-4 point lead, this would support my gut feeling…

  7. Modest increase in labour vote due to more Con 2017 moving to DK.

  8. One other thing I noticed in this poll was the net trade between Tory and Labour. This poll had 5% of 2017 Tory voters who were definitely going to vote, as voting Labour now. Only 1% in the other direction.

    I’ve just been looking at the Survation poll from October. Back then 3.7% of Conservatives from the 2017 were supporting Labour. The other way was at 1.5%.

    Looking through as a scan, new poll to previous poll, there doesn’t appear to be any significant differences really. The new poll has half the sample size, so differences in cross breaks could easily be MOE. The Labour and Conservative supporting respondents were about 350 in number, so an MOE of 5%. The overall poll findings show changes well within MOE.

    I would need to see more polling data from Survation, or data from other companies supporting Survation’s findings, to convince me that that this poll shows any real change.

    Those small changes suggested are likely to be statistical noise and no more.

  9. 2nd referendum?

    A timely warning from David Allen Green

    “There will soon not be enough time for a further referendum before 29 March 2019”

    http://jackofkent.com/2017/12/there-will-soon-not-be-enough-time-for-a-further-referendum-before-29-march-2019/

  10. The big difference will hinge on which party can get the vote out. I guess that Labour, with 500,000 enthusiastic members will outperform the Tories with their fewer than 100,000 elderly members, so a small theoretical lead may become a big one if a proportion of Tory-leaning voters have become reluctant to vote.

  11. Reposted fpt:

    TOH: Equally true of some Remainers, especially those who post frequently here. (re my: “But the post is a useful reminder of how detached from reality some fervent brexiteers reveal themselves to be.”)

    In my experience, evidence-free yah-boo-sucks type rejoinders usually achieve the opposite of the poster’s presumably intended effect.

    In this case, you are defending the indefensible. The brexiteer ranted about 100m youth unemployed in the EU, and how an EU army was planned in order to absorb that unemployment.

    In fact,the EU28 (ie incl UK) youth unemployment total last month was 3.722m. That is, less than one 26th of what he asserted.

    So I stand by my point that this post was “a useful reminder of how detached from reality some fervent brexiteers reveal themselves to be.”

    Now, you assert that this degree of inaccuracy in use of publicly available statistics is “Equally true of some Remainers, especially those who post frequently here.”

    Would you care to back this typical remark up with examples of such egregious errors amongst frequent posters here?

    For the record, here’s the youth unemployment position:

    In October 2017, 3.722 million young persons (under 25) were unemployed in the EU28, of whom 2.657 million were in the euro area. Compared with October 2016, youth unemployment decreased by 380 000 in the EU28 and by 201 000 in the euro area. In October 2017, the youth unemployment rate was 16.5 % in the EU28 and 18.6 % in the euro area, compared with 18.2 % and 20.3 % respectively in October 2016.

  12. @ OLDNAT – If we get early approval on a 2y transition that is effectively staying in EU in all but name then we buy a little more time for a new ref but Jack of Kent makes a valid point – we need to know the terms of the deal options before we can hold the referendum (and go through the maths issues in HoC that create the deadlock that will force CON to go that route).

    I think it is fair to assume neither May or Corbyn want a new ref but it might happen if/when May (or her replacement) see it as the least worst option for their survival and Corbyn would find it hard to refuse (since to get to that point he’d have had to block whatever CON were proposing).

    I think it is still unlikely, but if polls were showing 60% of CON VI and 70% total wanting another ref then the chances of CON-rebels actually rebelling might go up. If/when HoC is gridlocked and we see confidence votes what then?

    It’s only LD pushing a new ref at a national level at the moment. I doubt Corbyn sees any tactical advantage of moving to suggest a new just yet but at some point he might start allowing some colleagues to at least start floating the idea? Starmer perhaps? He is playing the politics of Brexit very well, keeping LAB a nose ahead of the next outcome.

    I’m glad AW mentioned it, as I showed on the last thread the increasing support for a new ref has come from a drop in CON opposing it – certainly something to watch going forward as we start to get more info on what kind of deal we might get.

  13. @CatManJeff

    Yep, I was making the point that the net Con-Lab swing change was part of why the overall poll lead was 8. I agree that it’s not statistically significant – but that I’ve noticed a slight trend towards a greater Con-Lab swing in the last couple of months across many polls. It’s still not much of course.

    I do wish polls would use at least 2,000 respondents as a base.

  14. The 2 takaways from the polls atm is how much are the polls taking into account how likely each team (Labour-Conservative) are likely to get out the vote and how loyal is their core vote.

    This survation poll is saying Labour people are now more loyal and tories are are more unsure. If this stays the same Labour are getting a majority, however other polls have said the opposite. I think this was the same problem for pollsters when almost all the polls weighted the polling wrong and underestimated youth turnout for Labour.

    Interesting stuff if I had to make a guess I would say right now a 3-4 point Labour lead.

  15. Good evening all from Winchester, England’s capital.

    It’s hard to believe just a few months back the Tories were enjoying almost daily double digit leads in the polls, talking of huge parliamentary majorities of epic proportions, Brexit was a buzz word and ol Corby was seen as a bit of a joke by many.

    Now look… ol Corby is leading in the polls, The Tories are on life support and are being propped up by Orange men, Brexit is now a shambles and Labour are the ones calling for an election.

    Worse…We are about to see the Tory party disintegrate after we give the EU the equivalent of the entire GDP of Wales in a divorce settlement and the DUP putting the boot into the Tories over any special status for NI post Brexit…

    Jacob Rees Mogg!! Now is the time…..

  16. I think the very small leads/neck and neck positions of many pollsters have not felt right. Survation was the closest in 2017, the closest at the referendum and in an albeit unpublished poll the closest in 2015. Other pollsters are still making changes and experimenting I believe. I am prepared to believe that the Labour lead is more like 6-8% maybe more. Bring on a GE and we’ll test it.

  17. I think AW might have the wrong Survation info on new ref from April? 22 April survation poll showed 39% support new ref, 46% oppose (ie -7pts net support)

    April
    Total Support 39%
    CON 22%
    LAB 56%

    July
    Total Support 46% (+7)
    CON 24% (+2)
    LAB 67% (+11)

    Now (versus the April figure)
    Total support 50% (+11)
    CON 34% (+12)
    LAB 68% (+12)

    Usual caveats aside (e.g. April had slightly different phrasing), it appears LAB VI moved to the new ref more quickly and CON VI catching up?

    In net terms of course the numbers double, -7% support in April is now +16% support. A net move of 23% towards supporting a new ref!!

    Keir Starmer – is it nearly time to float the idea of a new ref? Ignore LD polling, they have major baggage issues with student loans and Vince Cable as leader.

  18. @Jim Jam fpt
    I replied a bit there, but you actually seem to agree with my central point, that dividing Labour into Momentum and Blairites is nonsense.

  19. Before some get to excited about one poll as a life time Tory supporter and somebody who has actively campaigned in many election let me remind you about Tory supporters ,no surprise we are a conservative lot and many of us voted for brexit (not me) however many did ,what is causing a drift to unsure to vote Tory again is not that there thinking of switching to another party ,it’s much more likely they don’t like the way brexit is going.
    Let me explain it’s not that they want a 2nd referendum far from it, it’s just that they want May to be more firmer in her negotiations they would rather like her to tell the EU to get stuffed and certainly don’t want billions spent in bribery over future trade deals.
    But given time they will support her against a government run by Corbyn and McDonnell over almost anything that happens over brexit.

  20. Yes Guy although at present the new labour party members who have joined momentum members are tending to vote on block and for slates but over time this will dilute imo as they become less antagonistic towards others.

    Requires others to be less antagonistic back of course.

  21. Turk,

    I am sure you correct about some of that New DK but there could equally be some remainers who stuck with the Tories in 2017 as they thought a softer Brexit was possible with the Tories but now could be unsure.

    Also could be some Lab 2015/Tory 2017 (and there were many due to JC and/or Brexit) who might be thinking of drifting back but are still unsure hence DK.

    Truth is that without detailed polling we don’t know.

  22. It would be interesting to know what type of brexit /no brexit those wanting another referendum want. It could be that remainers and Hard Brexiteers want a final showdown between hard brexit and no brexit

  23. TREVOR WARNE

    I think AW might have the wrong Survation info on new ref from April? 22 April survation poll showed 39% support new ref, 46% oppose (ie -7pts net support)

    For once, I agree with you. The 2017-04-22 poll is the only one which Survation list that contains the EUref2 question. They were still reporting in PDF in those times past, and the tables are here.

    Table 26 on p29 of the PDF has: Support 39.4% Oppose 46.4% confirming the net as 7% Oppose.

  24. Turk,

    I am sure you are right about the core Tory vote. But there are other people who voted Tory in the last GE. The vote went up by 5.5 percentage points. Are you really suggesting that all of those voters share your view?

  25. Matt126
    I think Remainers would be confident of winning a new referendum between Remain and ANY particular version of Brexit other than the “cake and eat it” impossible outcome still being mischievously promoted by both the Tories and Labour.

  26. Paula – says what I was trying to say but more succinctly.

  27. PT
    I never assume people share my views but I do know Tory voters ,as for those you mention I think they supported the Tories because they didn’t want Corbyn or McDonnell in power. Come the next GE we will see if that still holds once brexit is complete and it’s beyond the gift of those on the left to change anything we will see if Corbyns view of the world really does hold any sway.

  28. Thank goodness for those paragons of political virtue, the LDs. eh Andrew?

  29. Survation’s Full Scottish poll will be revealed in tomorrow’s Record – so details later this evening.

  30. Turk,

    Except there is no evidence that they supported Brown or Milliband either. Indeed I would argue that five of the six seats the Tories gained from Labour were effectively lost in 2010 (the exception is Copeland). It is just that the voters who left Labour in 2010 went all over the place but in 2017 enough of them went to the Tories. Indeed, in all five seats the Labour percentage of the vote increased in 2017! You could argue that those people voted against JC but that seams unlikely given that they didn’t vote for GB or EM either.

  31. The splendid carols from John`s this afternoon set me thinking about the Irish.

    Was the inclusion of a piece by Stanford, and one of the readers having a distinctive Irish voice, a sign that the Cambridge music leaders, like many more of us, value the contribution of Ireland to life in our islands.

    And that we are ashamed of English people who consider the Irish of no importance or value, but instead are so arrogant as to decide that they should leave the EU to help the UK achieve “sovereignty”.

    On compromising, I was fascinated to realise that Cambridge colleges had shifted Advent Sunday forward by a week, a practical step since so many students would have gone down for this top Sunday in college chapels.

    Meanwhile, our Tory government has made no substantial compromise in 15 months over Brexit.

  32. @ MATT126/ANDREW111 – My view on a new ref is mostly based on the reality of the situation rather than an actual strong desire to have a new ref. I see a sequence of events that might get us to that point in Spring-Summer 2018. Bookies see the chances at only around 15-20%.

    Instead of looking at CON/LAB VI x-breaks you can see in the Leave/Remain that Remain are most keen on a new ref (fairly obviously).

    Taking net numbers for Support-Oppose:
    Total +16
    Remain +49
    Leave -18

    The changes since April and July are similar and obviously highly correlated with CON VI’s move from deep opposition to mild opposition of a new ref.

    As AW points out the phrasing of these questions makes a huge difference but Survation has asked broadly the same one so we can see the trend.

    Much will depend on the finer details of the two choices offered in a new ref, how we got to needing a new ref (neither party wants one) and how the campaign for each side is handled – cake and eat it is over and Br-armegeddon never happened so at least next time around neither side will be able to create totally absurd scenarios – well, hopefully not!

    However, faced with a 50bn+ bill for a bad deal new trade relationship (e.g. EEA+CU) with ongoing payments (say 4bn/year) would folks vote for that option or for a ‘min.deal’ relationship option? The third option is some from of ‘Remain as we were’ but I’m not convinced EU would allow that option. I very much doubt they want Farage to be re-elected in 2019 or our continuing veto obsession to slow their project now they have the chance to be rid of us. They seem very happy steering us into a bad deal and taking enough cash to kick the budget can down the road for a while longer.

    My view on the ‘Support’ for a new ref continuing to rise is based on CON (highly correlated to Leave) seeing the bad deal as something they do not want and pushing for a ‘min.deal’ outcome. It is difficult for me to see it from Remain’s side. My guess is they still see actually Remaining as an option so faced with a ‘min.deal’ versus ‘EU proposed deal’ they are suddenly going to realise they need to be careful what they wish for!

    LD x-break is tiny so huge caveats, but you’ll note they are only +32 Support! Given it is the raison d’etre for their party that seems weird?!?

  33. Somerjohn

    I was not defending anybody, just responding in kind to your generalisation. As I said, for balance.

  34. PT

    The point is for Corbyn to get into power he needs those people who’s votes went to UKIP and the Libdems to vote for Labour ,which will be down to do they trust Corbyn and McDonnell .The Tories need there core vote to stand up and retain the UKIP vote people already know what to expect from the Conservatives as by the next election they are likely to have been in power for 10yrs, on the other hand Labour will be a unknown quantity.
    Personally by the next GE the countries finances are likely to be fairly dire so it may well come down to a choice between trying to keep public spending in check or go down the road of borrowing billions more and raising taxes in the hope that trying something different (except of course it isn’t) might work.

  35. New Scottish Survation poll coming up.

    First published result is on independence with the No/Yes gap narrowing by 2 pts to No 53% Yes 47%.

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/937406577077833728?s=09

  36. Turk

    Ahh but that is the beauty of first past the post!! JC only needs the Tory vote to leak, it doesn’t matter where to! Tory decides to vote UKIP – Labour benefits! Tory decides to vote LD – Labour benefits. Tory decides to stay home – Labour benefits. Provided the Labour vote stays solid he wins.

  37. I’ve just looked at post GE data from all polling companies via EWMA (looking for subtle changes).

    https://drive.google.com/file/d/1I65y7mXOIj-bBVV5HK-TICdthNa72yXg/view?usp=sharing

    Nothing conclusive suggesting across the board changes, but a mixed bag.

  38. TURK

    There is some truth in what you say. I have said before and will say it again I don’t think we will end up with a Corbyn Government. More’s the pity. However I do think he will be viewed favourably in time by being the leader with the conviction to take the Labour Party away from a centrist position.

  39. Latest reports on the Irish border are that official level discussions are continuing between the UK and Irish Governments with the hope that an agreement can be reached before May meets Juncker tomorrow lunchtime. Special meeting of the Irish Cabinet tomorrow morning. Senior Irish sources saying the odds of a deal are 50:50.

  40. Hireton:

    I am not surprised that the YES vote for Scottish independence is increasing.

    Besides the exasperation with the Tory hard and uncompromising line on Brexit, we are getting more Tory austerity causing things like the closing of every public toilet in a council district, and now we have another annoyance in the coming Royal wedding.

    It`s not that most of us aren`t pleased that Harry is settling down, but it`s the relentless media coverage of the wedding and all those gushing women prattling on in difficult-to-understand upper-middle class dialects.

    Also after three years of being down, the prospects for North Sea oil/gas are rising, and many could think that an independent Scotland will be self-sufficient.

  41. TURK

    In the next GE campaign, when the Con. CoE isn’t barred from attacking McDonnel’s policies Lab , a Lab campaign built around Kindly Grandpa Jeremy won’t be quite as easy for them.

    I think polls at present can’t possibly help with predicting VI after the political roller coaster we are headed for over the next two years or so.

  42. Davwel

    The binary questions in Scots polls in/out UK : in/out EU don’t help terribly much in understanding the views of those not absolutely committed to a particular quadrant of the constitutional questions.

    The only poll that I’ve seen that asked folk what they would ideally like to see was by Panelbase in Feb 2017 –

    31% – Independent Scotland in the EU
    27% – Scotland in UK but outside the EU
    26% – Scotland in UK and the EU
    10% – Independent Scotland outside the EU.

    Of course, we don’t necessarily get to choose our ideal scenario! and consequently, choices are reduced to what seems realistically possible.

    None of the above scenarios are absolutes. What if EEA membership is put into that mix – either for the UK or an independent Scotland, or both?

    Without knowing what the eventual EU settlement is to be, it’s unrealistic to expect that many people will have shifted opinion one way or another.

  43. It might be thought discourteous not to invite the President of a country that hires out Trident missiles to us – no matter how foul a person he is.

    Consequently, he should be invited to a full State visit on 29th February 2017.

  44. You could even extend it to a three day visit, OldNat and include 30th & 31st February as well.

  45. In my view Brexit is now bound to collapse. I say that as a fairly robust Leaver.

    The last six months has largely consisted of the government trying to persuade the EU to talk. There has been a constant news cycle where the EU has demonstrated its supremacy over the UK. Stories with optimism, then optimism dashed. Talks delayed for big UK announcement – EU rejects UK proposals – suggestions EU half wrote those proposals – but still rejected them, they are that much in command…

    If the Leave campaign was strong on vision, it is being carried through by a Commons whose approach is to mitigate what it sees as the damage of leaving. If you want to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union, you don’t leave. So a “suave il peut” approach to Brexit by Remainers to keep as much of EU as is vaguely plausible has now been met with a “sauve il peut” approach by Leavers willing to accept the unacceptable to prevent immediate collapse.

    The result is the very worse sort of Brexit deal – a pointless one. One which does not serve any of the reasons for leaving, but doesn’t deliver the advantages of staying. How on earth can the public support that?

    At some point, there will be a collapse in Brexit morale. Maybe before Christmas.

    The Tories were right at the election. Either you are prepared to walk away or you shouldn’t be negotiating. There is no Commons majority for walking away, so it is really just a question of manoeuvring for blame-storming.

    .

  46. Irish deal

    so an Irish deal was in the bag all the time. Typical EU . Give the pretence of power to the ROI. We are family indeed! Another EU manrta : only create doubt where there is no doubt.

    As for VI in 2022. TM has just given 40bn of taxpayers money to the disliked EU (not my view you understand) but of many tories. They are cross and do not see why. Their support wavers and they say DK. Anybody including “cliff ” Corbyn could do a better job they think. But 2017 is not 2022. i hope for Labours sake that survaation is correct because if they are only 1-2 points ahead now jezza wil be the only labour leader since the war who will have been allowed to lose twice.

  47. “JOSEPH1832

    In my view Brexit is now bound to collapse. I say that as a fairly robust Leaver.”

    Some weird syncronicity must be at play, because this view is becoming more prevalent at exactly the time that I, a staunch remainer, think that a change of opinion by the great British public – which I have expected all along, and which is essential to stir the largely remainer politicians into rebellion – will not be forthcoming.

    I hope I’m wrong and you’re right.

  48. Colin.

    Sadly I won’t be in the U.K. for the next GE but hope to return to Blighty at some stage back to my beloved Dorset .
    I will miss helping out and I agree with you the next GE is certainly not going to be anything like the last shambles from speaking to my friends in the Tory party there already talking about fighting in the next GE on wide range of topics that effect everyday life no more cult of May or whoever the next leader is.
    And of course much more in depth analysis of Corbyn and McDonnell spending and taxing plans.
    I think it will be a close run thing what the Tories mustn’t do is concentrate to much on the youth vote but go for the 35 and up age group it certainly will be an interesting election.

  49. Joseph1832:

    There are many things that Leavers want that would be obtained if we left the EU but stayed in the CU and SM.

    Sovereignty, more control of our seas for fishermen, ending of CAP.

    Immigration is much reduced, and surely now is a problem for just a few parts of England and its bad effects could be dealt with by special treatment for those districts.

    The big gain that would please the majority in the UK is that the cost per year for each individual would be halved or even reduced to a third. The economic studies that I and others were posting here 2/3 weeks ago had losses to individuals of only £500 a year with a soft Brexit, but £1500 each year up to 2030 with the hard Brexit that half the Tory party appear to want.

  50. @Joseph1832 – “If the Leave campaign was strong on vision…..”

    The trouble was that the leave campaign was more based on delusion, and we are seeing the results of this now, painful as this may be to some leavers.

    There was never any prospect of leaving without a deal, which placed all the cards into EU hands. Worse, the EU knoew this all along, so any protestations by May that ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’ wereknown by the EU to be completely hollow. This is the dynamci that has framed the negotiations, and this explains why the UK has conceded on every major point and the EU on none.

    I think that you are correct, in that we are moving towards a less severe leaving package, and that this may be construed by some leavers as pointless, while still being seen by some remainers as more damaging than the status quo. I’m less sure that this will lead to a collapse in leaver morale – it may just reinforce their sense of alienation, and despite the outburst of reality, it might just push them to demand a hard brexit all the more, as they nurse their sense of injustice.

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