We used to get a flurry of opinion polling around a budget, but this year there has been very little. Part of that will be polling’s recent troubles (many companies are doing much less polling than before the election), perhaps it is just because it wasn’t a very interesting budget. If Hammond had done something that was spectacularly unpopular I expect many newspapers would have been scampering to commission a poll, as it was however, it was rather a dull affair and few seem to have bothered. I think the only post-budget poll we’ve seen is YouGov for the Times.

Topline figures there were CON 39%(-1), LAB 41%(-2), LDEM 7%(nc). Fieldwork was Wednesday afternoon/evening and Thursday and changes are from the Sun-Monday before the budget.

Even after a year and a bit in the job a large chunk of the public have no real opinion of Philip Hammond – 48% say they don’t know if he’s doing a good or bad job (20% say good, up five points from before the budget, 32% say bad, down three points from before the budget). Asked whether he or John McDonnell would do a better job as Chancellor 23% pick Hammond, 13% McDonnell and a hefty 64% say don’t know. Put simply, this is a comparison between two people who the general public either don’t know or don’t care about.

Moving to the question of wider economic expectations, people expect the state of the economy to get worse over the next twelve months by 51% to 11%, and expect their own personal finances to get worse by 40% to 12%.

The budget itself seems to have gone down adequately. All the budget measures YouGov asked about recieved more support than opposition, with the most popular being giving extra money to the NHS (87% thought it was a good idea) and increasing the National Living Wage (82% a good idea). The least were extending the young persons railcard up to the age of 30 (45% a good idea) and setting aside money for Brexit plannong (48% good idea). Most of the changes were giveaways of some sort of course, without anything likely to cause a big political row – the most contentious issue after the budget seemed not to be the unpleasant things Hammond had done, but whether his Stamp Duty cut would actually have a negative impact and whether the changes to Univeral Credit were enough.

On those two issues, only 9% of respondents thought that the Universal Credit changes went far enough and addressed all the problems, 45% think there are still problems with the policy (7% thought no changes should have been made and 39% said don’t know). On Stamp Duty for first time buyers, only 30% thought this would help make housing more affordable, 45% thought it would make no real difference (and 10% thought it would make housing even less affordable).

Overall, 34% of people thought Hammond’s budget was fair, 23% unfair. YouGov ask that same question after every budget, and that answer is pretty so-so. Nothing to shout about, but not the sort of negative reaction that Osborne got in 2016 or 2012. Full tabs are here.


808 Responses to “YouGov post-budget polling”

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  1. Significant move in opinion against the Trump state visit according to this You Gov poll:

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/936940031222140928?s=099

  2. MarkW
    You wrote earlier of a stream of never ending communications from TW and St Homas, I was instantly reminded of the Monty Python sketch which featured a ‘stream of bat’s p!ss ‘. Anyone else recall it?

  3. Davwel

    That shift by the UK Government was, I imagine, also driven by the latest Survation Full Scottish poll (which the parties always have sight of first).

    “62% of Scots want European powers moved to Holyrood after Brexit”

    https://planetradio.co.uk/westsound/local/news/62-scots-want-european-powers-moved-holyrood-brexit-poll-finds/

  4. I recently defended the practice of posting links to interesting articles and research, especially where these could add to people’s understanding of complex issues. An article from Der Spiegel was recently quoted approvingly by Colin (I think), for example.

    Here’s another example. We quite often read on here of how the euro is unsustainable and bound to collapse; and of how some europhiles want to extend the power of Brussels. These matters tend to be reported and discussed in a much more practical, pragmatic, unemotive way within the eurozone itself. For an insight in to this difference, take this report from El Pais (in English):

    https://elpais.com/elpais/2017/11/28/inenglish/1511855449_171164.html#?id_externo_nwl=newsletter_inenglish20171201m

  5. @DANNY

    There is no evidence whatsoever that TM was seeking a mandate for a hard brexit. She was, after all, a remainer. She needed a reasonable majority to be able to face down the hard brexiteers in the Conservative party and she didn’t get one. In terms of brexit votes, the Labour party are unreliable because their primary aim is to replace her. A sensible brexit was predicated on her being in a position of strength. That is why I am now quite pessimistic about the outcome.

  6. I note that the entire remaining Social Mobility Commission (set up to promote social mobility in England) has resigned due to lack of interest in the issue by the UK Government.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/dec/02/theresa-may-crisis-mass-walkout-social-policy-alan-milburn

  7. New Survation poll gives Labour 8pt lead up 2 pts from previous poll

    https://twitter.com/Survation/status/937086479347605504?s=09

  8. via Britain Elects

    US President Donald Trump’s state visit to Britain should…

    Go ahead: 31% (-18)
    Be cancelled: 55% (+19)

    via @YouGov, 30 Nov – 01 Dec
    Chgs. w/ Jan 2017

  9. HIRETON

    Thanks for the Survation link.

    They have an article on the poll on their website: Labour extends polling lead to 8 points over the Conservatives

    Numbers:

    LAB 45% (+1) CON 37% (-1) LD 6% (-1) UKIP 4% (NC) SNP 3% (NC) GRE 1% (NC) AP 3% (NC)

  10. Survation seem to found some dissatisfaction with the government’s approach to Brexit negotiations. The 50bn divorce bill was never going to be greeted with glad cries. After one climbdown, will there be others? Nobody should be surprised if there’s more.

  11. @PeterW: “To the extent that it can be isolated from the future deal, if it can be, the Article 50 Agreement is by qualified majority of the 27. There is no single state veto.
    An extension of time requires unanimity, and any practical future trade deal is likely to cover areas that require unanimity, but Artcicle 50 itself prescribes QM.”

    That is just one reason why the EU has sucked the life out of Article 50.

    ————–

    I voted Leave, and will do so again (I have very little doubt as to how this will end.)

    Why is the Brexit vote holding up in the polls? I can only think of how the UKIP vote held up in the polls from the 2015 election until the question went live in April 2017, and suddenly it collapsed.

    On the other side of the government surrendering to the EU to get trade talks, will be further demands for surrender. The EU will have established that it can as for the moon. It has established that a majority in the Commons will not support the government in walking away. So we can expect a concerted push by the EU for a “what is the point” Brexit. At some point it will just get too much. The hardline Remainers followed the £40bn debacle by saying that the promises of Brexit have failed – they are likely to get to say that a lot more, although never admitting that they have somewhat been cheering the EU and doing their best to make sure that the government could not say “no”.

    What happens next is far from obvious. But the destruction of the Tory party has to be a genuine possibility. But nature abhors a vacuum. Maybe there will be a centre right party capable of reaching out to the working class.

    The loss of the Independence Referendum actually boosted the SNP – until it overplayed its hand – so we don’t know how it will play here.

    One problem for Remainers is that – unless we learn to love the EU – the whole exercise will have demonstrated the difficulty of leaving, not removed the reasons for wishing that were possible.

    But it is easier to see the near future. Unless the EU overplay their hand in the eyes of its British supporters, or Nick Clegg and Kier Starmer get caught with some equivalent of the Zinoviev letter, it is hard to see the pressure of events not making Brexit look ridiculous in the eyes of its supporters.

    The truth, I think, is that it would have taken a strong, stable majority for Brexit to force a pro-Remain Commons to treat Brexit as anything other than a problem to get round. That majority was not there – and it became clear with the shifts in voting patterns at this year’s election, that there are more passionate Remainers than Brexit supporters.

  12. Survation poll very interesting. I think we have to remember that this is the first poll that has fully taken into account the brexit bill – which anecdotally a lot of Tory voters have found quite unpalatable. So not that surprising that the poll shows 11% of 2017 Tory voters are now ‘undecided’, versus 4% of 2017 Labour voters, according to the poll. It also showed 5% of 2017 Tories now say Labour; only 1% in the other direction.

    20% approve of paying the £50bn Brexit bill; 58% disapproval including 36% who strongly disapprove. 18% neither; 5% don’t know.

    Could be an outlier, of course. But this is Survation, who got both 2015 (though the poll was unpublished) and 2017 right….

  13. JOSEPH1832 @ PETERW

    Thanks for your post – perhaps the most honest and open post I have seen from a Leaver on these threads.

    I’m personally not convinced that May won’t try for an EEC deal. After all, Norway have managed a pretty stable relationship with the EU for almost as long as the UK has been an EEC/EC/EU member despite having more than their fair share of EU sceptics. They also have wriggle room over free movement plus no CAP or CFP and can make external trade deals.

    Had the leave campaign concentrated on the Norway option, which many including Farage & Hannan praised, they might well have won over a substantial majority.

    Unsurprisingly but deceitfully that option was dropped as soon as they “won”. I do take your point that leavers won’t be giving up, though, whatever happens next.

  14. Survation nailed the General Election. So they have more credibility than other pollsters. That’s a thumping Labour lead and polling at 45%. So much for the so called ceiling under Corbyn.

  15. I’m both astonished and ashamed that nearly a third of the country – if the poll quoted is accurate – think Trump should get a state visit to the UK.

    I don’t know anyone who feels that way – and Rosie and Daisie hide under the sofa if he is ever on telly.

  16. PAUL

    I would be very surprised if we see a Trump state visit. I think he is heading for impeachment. It still find it astonishing he was voted into power.

  17. Trump won’t come to the UK as it’s obvious he will face massive protests at every stage.

    He won’t want the embarrassment.

  18. The most surprising figure for me from the survation tables is about a second (really third) referendum: 50% think there should be one, only 34% think there should not.
    So much for voter fatigue.
    If there’s another referendum, we’ll stay, albeit badly damaged economically and in credibility by this misadventure.

  19. Bloody hell that Survation poll is quite something, 45-37? Hmmm I wonder if we should trust Survation more as it called the recent election well or we should stick to the average of polls? Tough call I won’t read too much into it though.

  20. via Faisal Islam

    And as to the thorny issue of ”what Leave voters voted for” – Survation find 92 of its 428 Leave voters (21%) say they want to stay in the Single Market and Customs Union, 67% want out in accordance with Gov plan, 13 (3%) want to stay in EU

    Crossbreaks always have a large moe, but such a large % of Leave voters wanting to stay in SM and CU suggests that some Brexiteers have been telling porky pies about ”what Leave voters voted for”

  21. I realise Trump won’t get a state visit. But 30% of our fellow citizens think he should FFS !!!!

    That is just weird. I would have expected 10% maximum – and still have been disappointed.

  22. Guymonde

    There is an increasing distrust in both the government and the HoC (Eurobarometer’s annual survey), so the lack of fatigue is not surprising. Those voters bringing their own pens to the booths were manifestations of a broader problem than the suspicion of a Remainer conspiracy.

    While probably there is not a single political point on which I would agree with @Joseph1832, I know that he is describing the attitude of a very broad social stratum, and he clearly states what he feels being unresolved (and those are unresolved, but without a major upheaval cannot be resolved, only managed).

    From this I would say that there is a general desire to get rid of this government, but it’s a poisoned chalice for Labour, and not particularly because of its tricky game about Brexit, but because a sizeable proportion of voters would want to get rid of them too (but Brexit could galvanize it). And after getting rid of governments of the two main parties in a short period …

    While Labour has more yes votes than the Conservatives, they also have more “not the other lot” votes. Their benevolent welfare state policies may work for a while but not in the midst of a recession. There is nothing in the policies for creating the foundations (nationalisation is not one, housing, while necessary, is not one, creating a million high quality jobs when there is no knowledge of the directions of development, or institutions to enforce it, when encouraging unions to take an anti-progressive stance, when instead of increasing the tax base they want to further narrow it, etc), it would be a final push for radicalisation not seen in this country for a century (without a leftist political organisation to channel it, but the presence of rightist ones) or withdrawal.

  23. If there is a Leave HQ (vote Leave, Leave EU, Grassroots Leave, any Brexit Cabinet Ministers, Brexit MPs, Aaron Banks, Ukip, whoever) then I pray they call for the second referendum based on Leave single market, customs union, freedom of movement of capital and Labour, freedom from European Court and no exit bill (no matter what the explanation).
    I assess that Leave will get more voters than last time and that Remain votes will fall to around 8 million (albeit very passionate zealous voters) and most other former Remainers will not vote at all.
    In the longer term, by 2020, The Eu Army and with it compulsory conscription (to resolve the 100 million plus young unemployed in Eu members) to give the Eu hardpower to go with soft power will be the thing which makes UK youth realise we got out before they locked the firedoors on the inside.
    Most people in the UK do not really care about the military deaths and injuries (even if they should) because they think people choose to join. This being the case in the UK since 1958. This was incredibly early compared to other Eu members who still see conscription (rather than fully professional army of enthusiastic volunteers) as the ‘good way’. They drive on the left; we drive on the right. The compulsory conscription with get the Republic of Ireland to join us by around 2021. Ironic know but hey life is full of irony.
    If the Remainer bluff is called over a second referendum, it will be fun to see their media faces in the campaign as the polls show that Project Fear will not work again.
    Corbyn this time will have to come right off the fence. He knows this. He would be front and centre not a footnote. This is why there will be no second referendum.
    He knows that he can not keep his potentially GE coalition together if he supports one side or the other decisively. Momentum once scorned would deselect him as an MP let alone leader of the party.
    Alas our exit bill will be our Article 231 war-guilt clause in the Treaty of Versailles. This eventually led to the far right coming to power. At least polling will be much easier to predict in a one party state following the Enabling Act outlawing other political parties.

  24. Blimey. Getting really desperate.

  25. Guy

    Very well reasoned I thought.

    Rosie and Daisie want to know if there’s any risk of compulsory conscription for dogs – and if so could they be let off for being too little.

  26. As far as I remember Englander pig-dogs were the enemy. Not that I suggest for a moment that R&D are pig-dogs but these forriners…
    Personally I think conscription of the over-65s is more likely because, let’s face it, we’re almost 100% unemployed and unemployable and need a bit of thinning out to help the pension crisis

  27. May is already gone, the only reason the button hasn’t been pushed yet is that Brexiteers don’t want anything to threaten the passing of the repeal bill, which should clear commitee before xmas.

  28. Interesting that it is still remain 52:48 leave in their tables for a hypothetical second remain/leave referendum, the same as early October. I had thought that the big divorce bill might have moved a few people over to remain, not a huge movement but 1 or 2% perhaps. Suppose Margin of error could be hiding any move.

  29. RMj1,
    “There is no evidence whatsoever that TM was seeking a mandate for a hard brexit. She was, after all, a remainer. She needed a reasonable majority to be able to face down the hard brexiteers in the Conservative party and she didn’t get one”

    I cant agree. On the basis of what she said, she was asking for a mandate for hard Brexit. ‘no deal is better than a bad deal’.

    You might argue she was lying, but that isnt really her style.She may indeed think we would be better off remaining, but again she said she would deliver the best brexit she could.

    Nor do I agree that a majority would have allowed her to deliver soft brexit. Rather I think it would have been used by hard brexiteers as proof the nation wanted the hardest of Brexits, because that was what conservatives had promised and people had voted for it.

    But I also think she personally would have been perfectly content to have properly lost the election and therefore not have had to even attempt Brexit, and most importantly have got the party out of its current existential crisis.

    Voters understood the only way to oppose brexit was to not vote for a party pushing it hard. If labour had been as pro brexit as the tories, they would have come a poor second, with resurgent libs and a healthy conservative majority.

    labour only succeedd by having a policy of placing the economy ahead of brexit. This allows them a break clause in commitment to brexit, and while its pretty weak, its plainly the best that was on offer to remainers.

    The election was in effect a second referendum on Brexit. Tories hoped the first result would push them to victory given the amplification effect of british elections to a small majority. But it didnt, and the nation if anything has a small majority for remain.

    I notice a lot of politicians saying a decision has been made, but it hasnt, This is still propaganda trying to push an unpopular policy because they are in an awful mess in terms of their voter base (no on cares about national interest)

  30. joseph1832,
    “On the other side of the government surrendering to the EU to get trade talks, will be further demands for surrender. The EU will have established that it can as for the moon.”

    Now here is a fundamental split in views. The arguments why the EU has to prefer ‘no deal’ to creating a new and special relationship for the Uk with the EU have been well rehearsed here in the past, and are convincing. Leave have sought to make money the central issue, but it is not for hard brexiteers and it is not for the EU. The EU is bound by its rules and must ensure they are applied in any deal which grants an alternative form of membership, which is what the government is trying to negotiate.

    Remainers have always believed they would be worse off leaving, and presumably the government’s climbdown on the bill confirms this. Soft Brexiters too are concerned over money, and were promised a deal safeguarding the economy. This was never achievable.

    For the government the problem has always been which group to tell they will not get what was promised. Since losing any group would destroy any majority for Brexit, they havnt told anyone. Their problem is that ultimately they risk losing all groups because no one will get what they want.

  31. @JOSEPH1832

    Good well argued post on Brexit.

    Will Brexit happen ? If you listened to most MP’s you would think it was 95% certain to happen. But what flavour of Brexit was the issue to be decided. Labour think their Brexit flavour is superior to the Governments and both Lib Dems and SNP don’t want any flavour of Brexit.

    Personally I don’t think £50 billion divorce settlement paid over say 10 years, while a permanent UK/EU trade deal is negotiated, is a big deal. That amount over 10 years will be less than the payments the UK would have made to the EU over that period as a member.

    More important is the transitional trade deal, which I think will be very difficult. The EU are not going to allow the UK full access to the EU single market on a tariff free basis as it does now, without the UK agreeing to most current EU requirements. E.g all EU rules, ECJ. The UK might also be prevented from negotiating trade deals with countries outside the EU while subject to any transitional deal.

    In February 2019, the new EU tax avoidance/evasion requirements will kick in and the UK under any transitional deal are likely to have to comply with this. Many believe this is why many financial interest groups and media owners are backing a hard Brexit, because the City of London, Channel Islands, IoM etc will be caught up in these new EU regulations. The Banks etc that take part in global tax avoidance and money hiding schemes, might well be exposed.

    Poor Theresa May finds herself in an impossible position of being pushed into manipulating a hard Brexit and pulled the other way by other groups who want a negotiated sensible Brexit or no Brexit at all.

    At the moment, neither Theresa May or Jeremy Corbyn back a second referendum, because they fear that this will cause more problems than it solves. In my opinion, this will change by Summer 2018, if there is no sensible Brexit arrangement agreed to take forward. At that point, I think there could be a second referendum on revoking Article 50 or going forward with a hard Brexit on 29th March 2019. The EU might well obtain agreement from all 27 countries for the UK to withdraw A.50, before the Brexit date, if UK voters decide this is what they want to do.

  32. As others have noted v.good Survation poll for LAB. The largest difference versus other pollsters is the very high certainty from LAB voters with the ‘undecideds’ (cell I48 in their spreadsheet) at a very low 3.8%. CON undecideds are 11.2% and in most other polls the undecideds are usually >10%!

    Similar to other pollsters but with slightly better LAB numbers you can also see in the ‘loyalty’ section of VI versus 2017 that LAB are net picking up a small amount from all sources: CON, LD, UKIP, Others and DNV

  33. And the survation poll…

    81% of 2017 conservative voters are so no longer. 4% to labour and 3% to UKIP 11% dont know. The similar figure for labour is 94% retention,1% lib, 1% UKIP, 1% tory, 1% SNP, 1% other, 3% undecided (which is 2% too big presumably because of rounding). This is pretty much the opposite of the situation before the last election, where there were masses of undecided former labour, who eventually came home.

    So the question is what will this group do now? Might the tories manage a similar trick to labour, or is this instead a sign of a steady movement from tory to labour, which has already swept the most left inclined back to lab, and is now progressing through the ranks of the leftmost tories.

    The almost equal losses by tories to labour and UKIP is interesting. This might be taken as the start of a squeeze which could totally annihilate the conservative party. It implies an unravelling of the switch to them from hard brexit, and further losses of those dissilusioned with brexit altogether.

    Hard to say how current events have impacted this, but agreeing a substantial exit payment is something unappealing to hard brexiteers, who seem to prefer simply walking away. Presumably there is a threshold of concessions beyond which hard brexiteers become dissatisfied and switch back to UKIP, despite UKIP’s chances being even poorer now than when those same people opted to vote tory instead of UKIP.

    But presumably the government reckons taking a harder line would be even worse, because it would likely cause a breakdown of negotiations and imply that there will be no significant deal about anything. This too would be breaking faith, but with soft brexiteers who have been promised such a deal.

    This poll might show the start of the national collapse of Brexit.

  34. Breakdown of divorce bill question from Survation:

    Q8: “To what extent do you approve or disapprove of the UK agreeing to pay £50bn to the EU as part of a Brexit ”divorce bill”

    Strongly approve 8.9%
    Somewhat approve 11.2%
    Neither approve or disapprove 17.5%
    Somewhat disapprove 21.8%
    Strongly disapprove 35.5%
    Don’t know 5.1%

    Net 37% Disapprove

    Not much on the partisan split, net disapprove:
    CON 36%
    LAB 44%

    A plurality of folks (31%) still seem to think paying zero is possible (max 50bn only receiving 11%) but a plurality (40%) think we should pay 50bn to secure a trade deal (35% preferring pay nothing for no deal, 25% undecided).

    I’m acknowledging the change here – bad deal is now ahead of no deal (at 53% v 47% with DKs removes) (the much derided Sky poll had 74% for no deal, YouGov live
    was 53% for no deal). Wording caveats, etc, etc.

    Q22: The EU is demanding £50bn because they want to punish the UK for leaving
    Agree 61% (disagree 18%)!

    Loads more interesting stuff in there (e.g. plurality on JC getting an even worse deal if he was PM, etc)

    Excel spreadsheet available from this link:
    http://survation.com/labour-extends-polling-lead-8-points-conservatives/

  35. @ DANNY – its a long way from ” totally annihilate the conservative party” and hardly a UKIP resurgence. As you yourself noticed the v.low ‘undecideds’ for LAB is the main reason they have a much higher lead with Survation compared to other pollsters.

    It does seem clear that Brexit is the poisoned chalice that most expected. Corbyn is not going to want to take over before the Brexit alabatross has strangled CON’s neck.

  36. @Jonathon Stuart-Brown – “In the longer term, by 2020, The Eu Army and with it compulsory conscription (to resolve the 100 million plus young unemployed in Eu members) to give the Eu hardpower to go with soft power will be the thing which makes UK youth realise we got out before they locked the firedoors on the inside.”

    After a genuinely interesting and intelligent post from leaver @Joseph1832, you go and spoil it. Your post is utter garbage, which I think you already know (although there remains the frightening chance that you actually believe this rubbish).

    If you are going to make claims about the certainty of future dramatic events, you need to offer a reasoned explanation as to how these could unfold.

    My guess is that you haven’t read the relevant Lisbon Treaty articles on defence – I did post these in some detail during the referendum campaign, as I was interested in understanding the issues myself. If you had, you would have discovered that the EU is obliged under the treaties not to cause any diminution of NATO’s role (and NATO is specifcally mentioned in the treaty several times) with the EU defence cooperation in practical terms restricted to non warfighting activities with a central administrative function charged with identifying gaps in defence capacity and working on filling these. The EU has no ability to force member states to participate in it’s defence policy – it is entirely up to members whether they engage and which parts they engage with. It is very sensible.

    The EU has not, and never will have, the legal authority to demand conscription. You know this, but persist in ly!ng about it. That’s very naughty.

  37. Paul Croft
    “I’m both astonished and ashamed that nearly a third of the country – if the poll quoted is accurate – think Trump should get a state visit to the UK.”

    On politics we live in different world Paul. I’ve not met anybody who objects to the state visit. I am as appaled as you are but at the 58% who say it’ should not happen. I am not a fan of Trump as a person but he is head of state of a friendly nation and I see no reason whatsoever for him not visiting the Uk.

    Survation Poll
    Really interesting and very different from other polls. Survation did well at the 2017 GE are they still doing well? I guess we won’t know until we actually have an election.

    The speculation here on the basis of one poll of 1000 people is highly amusing.

    My wife and I had a bracing 6.5 mile walk yesterday, followed by an arfternoon of splendid rugby to watch. Rather gloomy this morning but have a nice day all.

  38. Good morning all from a very mild but slightly grey Winchester.

    Well that survation poll…If accurate and with the DUP threatening to pull the plug on this current Tory regime, TM must be feeling very traumatised.

    And…the Andrew Marr program looks very juicy this morning.

    Cornflakes anyone?

  39. @Alec

    You might also have pointed out to J S-B that, as overall EU youth unemployment stands at 16.8%, his suggestion of 100m youth unemployment requires there to be 595m young people in EU28. Which, out of a total population of 512m is quite impressive.

    Suggesting that the purpose of an EU army would be to mop up this unemployment also suggests an army many millions strong. When the UK army – allegedly the most powerful in Europe – is down to 70,000, that is uite a mind-boggling thought.

    But the post is a useful reminder of how detached from reality some fervent brexiteers reveal themselves to be.

  40. Survation…
    48/44 split in favour of remain, about in line with yougov. I see they record a difference betwen male and female, with an absolute majority at 51% amongst females to remain, and an equal split of 50% males to leave. Interesting bedroom rows there. Lab and con polarisation is not so great as I might have expected, but still around 2:1 for their respective camps. (but these figures dont discuss degree of conviction)

    50% support for a referndum. Again this male-female split, mirroring what presumably is desire to change the last result, or to sustain it. 52% of previous referendum leavers oppose another vote, 68% of previous remainers support it.

    No one likes the leaving bill. What that motivates them to do might differ, but presumably there are two diametrically opposed ways to avoid it.

    30% of respondents excited about leaving the EU, 41% fearfull, 29% neither. Doesnt look good for brexiters, but its that 29% uncertain who are open to persuasion.

  41. @Joseph1832 – I liked your post. It is rare that people who feel strongly about such a binary issue can step back and look more objectively at the scene, and this is what you have done. I don’t think there is much that I can disagree with in your post.

    In a way, you seem to be coming round to what some remainers said all along – namely, that leaving is difficult. I believe that many leavers have been misled as to the ease of which we could walk away, with everything being positive and no negatives.

    I posted a day or so back some outright l!es by people like John Redwood, Dan Hannan and Owen Patterson, who said a year or so ago that there wouldn’t be a big cost of leaving, that no one was suggesting we leave the Single Market, that it would be easy to get a trade deal etc etc.

    This stuff was obviously intellectually feeble and practically completely illogical, but for whatever reason, 52% of voters were hooked by it. If there is a point on which we disagree on in your post, it would be the characterization of the negotiations, with words like ‘surrender’ and ‘debacle’ thrown in.

    As it happens, the negotiations have gone pretty much precisely as I expected and predicted. The £50bn (it looks to be more like this than the £40bn being put about by leavers) is just what we owe, It isn’t too hard to work this out, but it was going to be paid, whatever Boris or Priti Patel promised.

    The rest of it is just reality. Getting a good trade deal is going to be bad enough, but there was never, ever, any reality in which the UK would voluntarily walk away from the biggest trading block on the planet. The dynamic of the negotiations are set by that simple fact, and the fact that we are much the smaller part of the block.

    There will be more compromises to come, but I think your comparison to Scotland may well be apt. This time, winning the referendum went to leavers heads. They were the ones who overreached themselves, by promising everything. As it becomes progressively clearer that they can’t deliver*, dissatisfaction is bound to creep in.

    *Interestingly, the Daily T is reporting this morning of a Tory civil war over the future role of the ECJ, with Brexiters apparently trying to stop a move which will see the ECJ having a role in trade issues.

    I suspect this will be the next flash point.

  42. Trevor Warne,
    ” its a long way from ” totally annihilate the conservative party” and hardly a UKIP resurgence.”

    oh indeed, but I looked at that and thought, this just might be the first measurement of the disappearance of the tory party. Which would be quite remarkable. The brexit referendum was supposed to halt the losses to UKIP over EU membership and therefore guarantee future party success, yet it might in the end destroy it. The alternative was to take a clear stance, for or against, and accept defections to UKIP. This was supposed to be the safer course.

  43. So now Farage admits Brexit is failing. Oh dear. Contrary to S Thomas’s somewhat optimistic post of a couple of days ago this is turning into yet another bad week for May.

    Just to add that I have felt for a number of months that she is running scared from her right wingers and called a General Election to win a mandate for a hard Brexit. She failed.

  44. @Danny

    81% of 2017 conservative voters are so no longer. 4% to labour and 3% to UKIP 11% dont know. The similar figure for labour is 94% retention,1% lib, 1% UKIP, 1% tory, 1% SNP, 1% other, 3% undecided (which is 2% too big presumably because of rounding). This is pretty much the opposite of the situation before the last election, where there were masses of undecided former labour, who eventually came home.

    Where does this 81% figure come from?

    Table 2
    Q2. By Normal Weighting
    Q2. If the General Election was taking place tomorrow, and there was a candidate from all political parties standing in your constituency, which party do you think you would vote for?
    Base : Respondents Likely to vote

    2017 Con still voting Con – 79%

    Table 3
    Q2. Voting Intention Table – By Normal Weighting and LTV
    Q2. If the General Election was taking place tomorrow, and there was a candidate from all political parties standing in your constituency, which party do you think you would vote for?
    Base : Respondents Likely to vote

    2017 Con still voting Con – 81%

    Table 4
    Q2. Voting Intention Table – By Normal Weighting and LTV with undecided and refused removed
    Q2. If the General Election was taking place tomorrow, and there was a candidate from all political parties standing in your constituency, which party do you think you would vote for?
    Base : Respondents Likely to vote with undecided and refused removed

    2017 Con still voting Con – 90%

    ———————————–

    This poll is within MOE of the previous poll, so in my view should probably not be seen as signalling anything different.

    There are lots of Brexit questions that look bad for the Government, but there are no silver linings in this cloud for Labour. Q33 asked if JC was PM would the UK get a better Brexit deal?

    UK would get a better Brexit deal if JC was PM – 25%
    UK would get a worse Brexit deal – 36%
    Similar – 19%
    DK – 20%

    The response is highly partisan.

    Con voters JC better deal/JC worse deal – 5%/70%
    Lab voters JC better deal/JC worse deal – 52%/7%

    So in fact Labour voters are less sure of their man on this question.

    There is nothing in this poll to indicate anything stronger than mid term polling blues for the Government, and the longer term indicators that would suggest Labour are becoming more seen as a Government in waiting are not there.

    (IMO of course.)

  45. CMJ

    Mid term blues? This Govt has been in office for less than six months. It should still be their honeymoon period

  46. Milburn’s resignation exposes the all-consuming nature of Brexit for this Government. It must be relentless, and it isn’t going to get any easier.
    If EU refuse Stage 2 talks for the second time, surely May has to walk away ; & the workload & political fallout from that will be fearsome.
    Hardly less onerous will be a year talking to EU about trade terms. The set backs & political commentary on that can be easily imagined.

    Tough times ahead for TM. I hope her health holds up.

  47. COLIN

    Agreed. There is a paralysis in Govt because of Brexit. 2017 was always going to be a much tougher year for May than the cakewalk she enjoyed in the latter part of 2016. 2018 will be even tougher.

  48. @Mike Pearce

    It’s has been a short honeymoon period for sure, but plunging immediately into the single most difficult political (and poisonous) negotiations in living memory saw to that!

  49. I wonder whether we will end up having a General Election in 2018? If we do then Labour’s manifesto will come under much closer scrutiny than it did this year as they will be seen as serious challengers for High Office. I would place absolutely no money on a Labour victory if that election were held despite the mess this current Govt is in.

  50. COLIN

    “Tough times ahead for TM. I hope her health holds up”
    _________

    I also hope the health of the millions of less well off and the disabled also hold up on the back of her governments policies.

    Indeed… Tough times ahead but TM can simply walk away from it all into a land of milk and honey.

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