We used to get a flurry of opinion polling around a budget, but this year there has been very little. Part of that will be polling’s recent troubles (many companies are doing much less polling than before the election), perhaps it is just because it wasn’t a very interesting budget. If Hammond had done something that was spectacularly unpopular I expect many newspapers would have been scampering to commission a poll, as it was however, it was rather a dull affair and few seem to have bothered. I think the only post-budget poll we’ve seen is YouGov for the Times.

Topline figures there were CON 39%(-1), LAB 41%(-2), LDEM 7%(nc). Fieldwork was Wednesday afternoon/evening and Thursday and changes are from the Sun-Monday before the budget.

Even after a year and a bit in the job a large chunk of the public have no real opinion of Philip Hammond – 48% say they don’t know if he’s doing a good or bad job (20% say good, up five points from before the budget, 32% say bad, down three points from before the budget). Asked whether he or John McDonnell would do a better job as Chancellor 23% pick Hammond, 13% McDonnell and a hefty 64% say don’t know. Put simply, this is a comparison between two people who the general public either don’t know or don’t care about.

Moving to the question of wider economic expectations, people expect the state of the economy to get worse over the next twelve months by 51% to 11%, and expect their own personal finances to get worse by 40% to 12%.

The budget itself seems to have gone down adequately. All the budget measures YouGov asked about recieved more support than opposition, with the most popular being giving extra money to the NHS (87% thought it was a good idea) and increasing the National Living Wage (82% a good idea). The least were extending the young persons railcard up to the age of 30 (45% a good idea) and setting aside money for Brexit plannong (48% good idea). Most of the changes were giveaways of some sort of course, without anything likely to cause a big political row – the most contentious issue after the budget seemed not to be the unpleasant things Hammond had done, but whether his Stamp Duty cut would actually have a negative impact and whether the changes to Univeral Credit were enough.

On those two issues, only 9% of respondents thought that the Universal Credit changes went far enough and addressed all the problems, 45% think there are still problems with the policy (7% thought no changes should have been made and 39% said don’t know). On Stamp Duty for first time buyers, only 30% thought this would help make housing more affordable, 45% thought it would make no real difference (and 10% thought it would make housing even less affordable).

Overall, 34% of people thought Hammond’s budget was fair, 23% unfair. YouGov ask that same question after every budget, and that answer is pretty so-so. Nothing to shout about, but not the sort of negative reaction that Osborne got in 2016 or 2012. Full tabs are here.


808 Responses to “YouGov post-budget polling”

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  1. Alec

    ” Once they’ve been stuffed on this issue, whether they retain any real influence over proceedings is going to be the outstanding question, so I think this is a pivotal moment in the whole affair.”

    or not as the case may be. Time will tell.

  2. Oh come on Colin – politics is a rough old trade.

    Nobody held a gun to May’s head , forcing her to stand for PM or to hold that general election.

    If her health is being affected, then she should step down. It does no one any good, least of all us poor bl—dy citizens, if she chooses to stagger on at this turning point in our country’s history.

    I am getting really tired of how the prosperity of the UK continues to be threatened by the Tory infighting which led to this disastrous referendum, and now its aftermath.

  3. alec

    Re the tipping point which I first mooted many months ago, I am becoming increasingly doubtful that it will occur.

    The two main reasons are, one, that it is in the interests of both parities to reach a deal, so they will [I have never bought TOH’s prediction of a no-deal exit.]

    Depressingly, two is the apathetic nature of most voters. The anger and concern that many of us feel, and that Valerie touched on above, regarding the stupidity of a binary choice referendum on a hugely complex issue, and the aftermath of all of that, looks as though it has passed too many people by.

    It’s not that they are not angry in general I feel, just that the focus is very vague and simply anti-government in general.

    And look where that’s taken America.

  4. Guy Re

    ” Of course Momentum believe that the only reason Lab didn’t get a landslide in the GE was because ‘Blairites’ were not wholly committed to Jeremy, and that a purge of apostates will lead to landslide victories everywhere.”

    Way too simplistic and ypo make the mistake many other are making in seeing Momentum as a homogenous block.

    Like all movements it has strands within it and my are not zealots but centrist LP members who grow tired of triangulation and Austerity Lite.

    We have seen a massive increase in membership in my local party and yes most of those see themselves as left wing and many have joined momentum.

    I think the correct approach is to welcome these recruits and at the same time accept JC as leader and work within to advocate the broad church to victory approach.

    Many so-called anti-Corbyn LP members (and MPs) were not that exercised about policy but believed Labour where unelectable with him as leader.

    Clearly the 2017 GE shows that this is at least a decent possibility now which is why even those who are still sceptical will work with him for now.

    Key time for Labour is the next leader, hard left or centre left who did not resign in 2016, e.g Thornberry.

  5. The shouty voice used by North Korean TV “news” readers would be considered slightly over the top in a satirical comedy about communism.

    Having said that, the same could be said about many US tv “news” readers.

    Oh… and has anyone seen the adverts for Trumpy Bear? Really weird, to the extent that nobody knew if it actually WAS satire.

    However, the tv stations that they bought advertising on suggest it’s serious.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i9qv8RSreIM

    It’s not too late to buy one for somebody for xmas – or maybe even yourself.

  6. New thread on the Survation poll BTW

  7. Catmanjeff,
    oops sorry, thats 81% are still supporting conservative. I was in a bit if a rush and didnt get to comment on all the other stuff either.

    One thing I noticed was the continuing high proportion of people still believing brexit will not affect them adversely. Yes, there are some encouraging answers for the government, but if they are still based upon unrealistic expectations by voters, then this support is very fragile. Its likely the government will be extended the benefit of the doubt, but eventually this doubt will be gone. Settling a bill, even provisionally, is one step on this journey. Irish borders might be another.

  8. TOH: Equally true of some Remainers, especially those who post frequently here. (re my: )“But the post is a useful reminder of how detached from reality some fervent brexiteers reveal themselves to be.”

    In my experience, evidence-free yah-boo-sucks type rejoinders usually achieve the opposite of the poster’s presumably intended effect.

    In this case, you are defending the indefensible. The brexiteer ranted about 100m youth unemployed in the EU, and how an EU army was planned in order to absorb that unemployment.

    In fact,the EU28 (ie incl UK) youth unemployment total last month was 3.772m. That is, less than one 26th of what he asserted.

    So I stand by my point that this post was “a useful reminder of how detached from reality some fervent brexiteers reveal themselves to be.”

    Now, you assert that this degree of inaccuracy in use of publicly available statistics is “Equally true of some Remainers, especially those who post frequently here.”

    Would you care to back this typical remark up with examples of such egregious errors amongst frequent posters here?

    For the record, here’s the youth unemployment position:

    In October 2017, 3.722 million young persons (under 25) were unemployed in the EU28, of whom 2.657 million were in the euro area. Compared with October 2016, youth unemployment decreased by 380 000 in the EU28 and by 201 000 in the euro area. In October 2017, the youth unemployment rate was 16.5 % in the EU28 and 18.6 % in the euro area, compared with 18.2 % and 20.3 % respectively in October 2016.

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