Kantar have published a new voting intention poll ahead of the budget, the first I’ve seen from them since the general election. Topline figures are CON 42%, LAB 38%, LDEM 9%, UKIP 5%. Fieldwork was between last Tuesday and this Monday.

This is the first poll to show a Conservative lead since September and the largest Tory lead in any poll since the election. As ever, it’s best to look carefully at any poll that shows an unusual result before getting too excited/dismayed. The reason for the unusual result appears to be methodological, rather than from some sudden Tory recovery, and down to the way Kantar treat turnout. As regular readers will know, many polls came horribly unstuck at the 2017 election because instead of basing turnout on how likely respondents said they were to vote, they predicted respondents likelihood to vote based on factors like their age and class. These methods assumed young people would be much less likely to vote, and produced large Conservative leads that ended up being wrong. Generally speaking, these socio-economic models have been dropped.

At the election Kantar took a sort of halfway position – they based their turnout model on both respondents’ self-assessed likelihood to vote, whether they voted last time and their age, assuming that older people were more likely to vote than younger people. This actually performed far better than most other companies did; Kantar’s final poll showed a five point Conservative lead, compared to the 2.5 they actually got. As such, Kantar appear to have kept using their old turnout model that partly predicts likelihood to vote based on age. The impact of this is clear – before turnout weighting Labour would have had a one point lead, very similar to other companies’ polls. After turnout weighting the Conservatives are four points ahead (the full tabs and methodology details are here).

(Another noticable difference between Kantar’s method and other companies is that they use the leaders’ names in their voting intention question, though given there is not nearly as much of a gap between Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn’s ratings as there used to be I’m not sure that would still have an impact.)


633 Responses to “Kantar- CON 42, LAB 38, LDEM 9, UKIP 5”

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  1. @COLIN

    With respect to the move to phase two, I think that the UK has dragged it feet on the money and EU citizens rights so making the Irish issue more toxic in the end I feel that UK wants to talk trade deal because essentially without this it make a long road longer. What I have felt is that to sort out the RAL payments would been easy to do for a trade deal in terms of goods, and to make extra one off payments for getting something on services and particularly finance. My view was that they would not find a way of doing this because of the divisions within the Tory party and the lack of consensus about what the payments are for in the UK electorate.

    As I have said time and time again we have sold these as payments for somethign whereas the EU is selling them as promises made in terms of projects and therefore independent of any trade talks in the end it is a point of principle and in this situation in my view the UK is basically selling an untruth to the UK electorate which is why I crine at the whole thing.

    The point is that from the first meeting until today I felt that May has played some ridiculous game think either she had the upper hand or that the EU would cave in. Both are not going to happen. In my view if there is a customs deal then I think things will be fine but I think for there to be a deal it would have to be limited is form and therefore not the deep and special relationship that May talks about.

    I am still thinking TW minimum deal or ( the ‘no deal’ deal is on the cards but I see May is moving slowly away from the opening gambit of we owe nothing and you will be hurt much worse than us sort of rhetoric of the Dinner with JUnckers.

    In terms of Merkel. I feel that the CDU may go for minority government and get the SPD to provision an unofficial cofidence and supply. Both the centre left and centr right parties are losing votes if your polling numbers are correct and that is a bad place to be ( a bit like to Tories, thinking it be better to have the deal you can get and hope that something comes up. )

    What I would have thought you would want is Merkel as what you leavers perceive as the head honcho If it is Macron then brexit is going to be more painful it is an easy win for him in the same way that bashing the EU is always an easy win for any Tory MP/MEP/PM

    The other part is in my view that the EE countries would not want their projects that they have used to leverage wage improvement and employment improvement to stall, hell that is why they joined so one needs to be careful for what we wish for

    ;-)

  2. Actually, for an advocate of “kinder, gentler politics” Jeremy’s shouting reminds me of that old Radio one dj, phone-in character Mister Angry – who I found very amusing.

  3. Actually, for an advocate of “kinder, gentler politics” Jeremy’s shouting reminds me of that old Radio one dj, phone-in character Mister Angry – who I found very amusing.

  4. I ONLY PRESSED ONCE FFS !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    Miliband was a jolly good pointless shouter at questions as well. It felt like a default position of faux outrage to me.

  5. @SW Thomas

    One of the few posters worth reading on here since it was swamped by Corbyn groupies and Brexit “I told you so” merchants. You are my hero (or should that be heroine?).Keep going and don’t let the ba**** grinfd you down.

  6. NORBOLD

    Quite.

  7. GB

    I enjoy reading posts from posters from varying political persuasions. It’s a shame your mind is closed.

  8. So the corner stone of a budget to address the housing crisis is a cut to stamp duty that is universally agreed will push up house prices which are already rising faster than earnings.

    So Government revenue to fund housing will drop and house affordability will worsen.

    Anyone want to try calculating just how much as a percentage an average house would have to rise by to cost more than the current stamp duty and how long at current house price inflation it will take.

    The Tory dilemma, they want more young people to become tory voting home owners and to keep the market moving by more people entering it, but they also need to keep their core support happy with ever rising property values.

    Solution; throw money at it and use tax payers money to help people pay more for already over priced houses.

    So going forward the core problem of the last four decades will be reinforced; buying and selling existing assets will be higher return and lower risk than creating new ones.

    It will be trading over making yet again, a debt driven economy where the attractions of property trading will outweigh investing to an extent that they will crowd out investment to promote innovation or new technology despite the efforts to promote it in the budget.

    It’s odd to watch people cheering a cut to Stamp duty which while appearing to address the problem will exactly exasperate it.

    Peter.

  9. Standard home rate (April 2016)
    Up to £125,000 0%
    £125,001 – £250,000 2%
    £250,001 – £925,000 5%

    Average price 2017 England; £232,000
    Average price inflation 2017 England; 5.1%

    Stamp duty on an Average house; 0% on first £125k, 2% on next £107k = £2,014.

    Inflation of 5.4% of £232k price rise £12,500 per annum.
    Time for current inflation to outstrip cut in stamp duty; just under two months!!!!

    Peter.

  10. Who’s SW Thomas?????

    Peter.

  11. Ken

    I share your distaste for bullfighting, but I presume that your pal got the cash under Pillar 2 of CAP – Rural Development?

    I’ve no idea how Spain exercises subsidiarity in CAP payments, so whether the cash was authorised by the Madrid or Andalusian governments is unclear.

    Presumably, if the UK stayed in the EU and fox-hunting was re-legalised in England, under existing CAP rules the English government could approve similar funding for new fox hunting facilities.

    If the EU was this terrible organisation that overrode subsidiarity it might do so, but clearly it doesn’t.

    That makes it very unlike Spain which overturned the Catalan ban on bullfighting, and insisted that it continue there.

    I’m unclear as to whether you are arguing that the EU should exercise more control within member states, or not.

  12. OLDNAT…….I was simply surprised that a proportion, no matter how small, of my hard-earned is lining the pockets of people that indulge in Bullfighting, that it is channelled via CAP, simply endorses my view that I am better out of the EU. You might be better off in.

  13. Ken

    Thanks.

    You believe that the EU should stop funding anything of which you personally disapprove, regardless of the views of the member state (no matter whether you and I share our disapproval of that activity).

    Unless it does, you want to be out of it.

    I have to say that’s a really novel view of why the UK should leave the EU, but a good justification for Catalunya leaving Spain (which, presumably, you support).

    As to fox hunting with dogs, would a re-introduction of fox-hunting in England validate the civilised parts of the UK leaving the union?

    Naturally, you will want to adopt a consistent position across such issues.

  14. @COLIN

    I agree that the issue of investing in housing, innovation and the like has blunted some of that argument as I have said much of the investment is not really investment per se and HTB is an absolute disaster in terms of prices basicially we are subsidising the housebuilders and most of the money fro HTB basically is uplift of the price (of which I believe that is part of the deal with HTB)

    The innovation investemnt is not huge we lag behind most of our EU peers in terms of R&D investment and I think the scale is pretty low in compared t what Corbyn would do. it is an argument between someone whom think his thumb is enough to plug the hole compare to someone whom want to build a dam which is how one person described it ( yes it is hyperbole but you get the idea ) So in one sense I think what he did was talk about what the budget did not cover and in that way makes a comparison for example student debt interest coming down compared to extending rail cards For Tories voters that is meh, it does not hurt us and may get us something , for labour that is win, the argument of social care again for the Tories they feel like they are doing somethign and you as a Tory should be pleased but if you talk to labour voters they are enthused by the fact that firsly he talked about iit secondly the Tory MP remark and last he got angry. For you your not voting for him so for you it is a meh but for Labour inclined voter that again one for the enthusiasm counter. If you are strugglingnto sort out care for you mum that will resonate if some one comes to you on the doorstep.with a tailored message as momentum may do in the future.

    What the budget did well is answer Tory doubts and that is fine what the Corbyn’s response did was highlight to labour supporters the weakness of our overall position ind ealing with what is a number of broken issues and it may just highlight an issue of priority.

    It was a good budget for Tories don’t get me wrong but no one is saying that they socked it to Labour and so labour I think that it could be described as ano score draw. which in the current climate leave it still all to play for.

    My view is that we will be nip and tuck all the way to 2022 irrespective of some people perception of brexit the message is that we need a massive change needs to happen and I don’tthink that the measure proposed by Hammond would yield what he is hoping. I do think growth will be better but I also think we have OK growth now and yet pay is not going up fast enough for it to feel good.

    The one thing the Tories have is time and they are in power. So it theirs to really screw up, but interestingly Labour has established a interesting base

  15. “@Somerjohn We need to be alert to the present-day equivalent of failing to preserve the Beeching rail routes for alternative use when they were closed.

    Post offices?”
    @charles November 22nd, 2017 at 7:44 pm

    EU contact points?

    https://ec.europa.eu/unitedkingdom/services/contact-points_en

  16. Peter Cairns,
    “So the corner stone of a budget to address the housing crisis is a cut to stamp duty that is universally agreed will push up house prices which are already rising faster than earnings. ”

    Yes. But this might reassure those who have buy to let properties as their pension plan, that the tories are still on their side because they are boosting the value of their assets. Not a budget to try to recapture youth, but to hang on to the nearly retired.

  17. The FT thinks that the stamp duty cut will push up house prices.

    Anyway, I think it was a good budget for Hammond. I doubt it was particularly good for the country – much of the same. Or put it this way: buying time.

  18. The most surprising thing about today is that the budget, although startlingly unexciting, hasn’t unravelled yet.

    If, and admittedly it’s a big if since it’ll be the first thing that hasn’t gone wrong for them since the election was announced, it doesn’t turn into another total shambles are we likely to see Hammond being viewed as leadership material?

    Wonder when ConHome will be doing their next “best of a bad bunch” polling, if only to see how the dullest CoE since Major (who, despite being a political anorak then as now I couldn’t even remember being CoE) and the newly disgraced Ms Patel will fare among that most interesting of communities.

  19. Reading some of the above, I think students demanding fee reductions and getting a railcard extension has potential for a bananaskin. Then add in the unhelpfull first time buyer schemes. It feels to me as if its about shoring up support from the committed rather than winning the yoof.

  20. PTRP

    Thanks for your two posts.
    I don’t agree with you on TM’s Financial setllement. approach.
    We will see what the next few weeks bring.

    I agree that Merkel in general is a “friend” of UK. Its not that I am anxious for her to go-I am fascinated by the conditions which have given rise to her possible demise, and the political dynamics which might result within EU if she goes.

    On the Budget I have nothing to add to my previous remarks.

    I have no idea how the polls will look by the time of the next GE because their is so much water to go under the bridge & there are so many variables.

  21. It should be remembered , that for a house buyer with a mortgage , the saving in SD directly helps funding of his/her deposit, whereas the alleged effect of the SD reduction in house price increase will be spread through n years of mortgage payments.

    So for a first time buyer facing a 10% deposit requirement the imediate help in funding that deposit is ST saved minus 10% of any house price inflation caused by ST saving.

    The issue is not net effect over a 25 year mortgage. The policy objective is Help Now to fund the Deposit. for First Time Buyers.

  22. Good God, I can’t believe it.

    S Thomas, TOH and Colin, aka the Troika, thought Jezza’s response to the budget was a bag of sh..te.

    Hold the front pages.!!

  23. @DANNY

    If you take the views of those that are tory supporter here they are rather happy with that as a result I accpet that does not win anything other than the committed but I think they needed a ‘win’ and to my mind they got a win they will feel happy about it. Of course there are some faults with it but I think they are happy that there are no immediate banana skins.

    What is nteresting for me is not that the Tories are claim this is a success but the idea that having a budget that does not all apart at first contact is not a sign of competence. it does elevate Hammond in some senses which is weird since by all accounts he was gone 21:59 on June 8th and now he is seen as the most competent minister that may has which is remarkable

    Now is the budget a great budget, obviously no but one has to say at this point walk and talking at the same time may now be seen as a sign of competence after the gaffs and stupidity of the past few weeks.

    So for Tories they are breathing a sig of relief, for Labour it is a meh there is no stomping on Labour territory type headlines or any other narrative that leave Labour reeling.

    So a good day for everyone it seems

  24. As a change of pace from interminable Brexit debates, there are 10 local by-elections tomorrow. I know that results from these have to be treated with caution, but as they are from a number of different areas the results could be interesting. There are two in Scotland, 1 in Wales, and 7 in various areas of England. One thing I noticed is that there are only two UKIP candidates, and neither are in England.

    http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/10753/local-elections-november-23rd-2017

    At least it’s some sort of poll!

  25. Colin

    According to Which, the average first time buyer deposit is 17%. And the average first time buyer age is around 32 yeara.

  26. Peter Cairns (SNP): So the corner stone of a budget to address the housing crisis is a cut to stamp duty that is universally agreed will push up house prices which are already rising faster than earnings.

    So Government revenue to fund housing will drop and house affordability will worsen.

    Yep, going into vendors pockets on greased rails. See here:
    http://forums.moneysavingexpert.com/showthread.php?t=5748543

    A gazump on the day of the budget justified by the SD change.

  27. Valerie,

    “Hold the front pages.!!”

    And in other News, Pope announced to be a Catholic and Bear is sighted with toilet paper in the Woods!

    Peter.

  28. Peter

    It might be news if the Pope was sighted with toilet paper in the woods, while a “bear” were to be Supreme Pontiff.

  29. Bat or Bowl first?

  30. As always, it will take some time to disentangle the UK issues in the budget from those that don’t apply in Scotland, like the Stamp duty issue.

    The political spin is that the UK Government will only listen to representations from its own MPs (discounting their MSPs and the SoS who according to their spin was unpersuasive).

    For those to see union with England as being a good thing because some table crumbs become available, it strengthens the argument for voting for the ruling party at Westminster (bad news for SLab).

    For those wanting more autonomy, it’s an argument that Scots opinion will be ignored at Westminster, unless it suits their purposes.

    Thus the perennial argument as to whether it’s better to have autonomy or be a supplicant continues – ’twas ever thus.

  31. oldnat

    The answer is, as it always was, a proper socialist Labour government.

  32. valerie.

    I did not say that Angry Jezza was a “bag of sh**e” as you so eloquently put it. I implied that he lost his temper which may not appeal to some voters. I accept it will appeal to others.
    I cant help but like him as it happens but i will not be voting for him any time soon.And iif anybody is bored enough you go back to my pre-election posts and you will find that i was posting that he was not the disaster that his new found friends on this site were saying he was.

  33. Nick P

    In my 70+ years I’ve only seen “improper” governments at Westminster.

  34. I’m not sure that the reduced stamp duty for first time buyers will have much impact upon prices. FTBs only account for 30% of transactions.

    So 70% of negotiations will be unaffected. And of the 30% where FTBs are involved, what proportion of the ‘saving’ will be ‘handed over’ to the vendor, if any?

    I’m also not convinced that the government will be deprived of any revenue. Yes they will lose some direct revenue, especially in London, but this might well be balanced by revenue from a stimulus to the market. My first thought was that you can’t get any revenue from increased activity if the rate is zero. But you can: FTBs are often at the bottom of chains, so more FTB purchases will lead to more exchanges ‘up the line’.

    I can hardly believe I am saying that this government has done something clever with housing, but this might be. A tax reduction for the young, combined with a stimulus for the market and the economy, without any drop in tax revenue.

    Defining a FTB could be tricky though…

  35. OLDNAT…….The Spanish have a bit of form when it comes to gratuitous cruelty in the name of entertainment, bulls, horses, goats, incidentally, they have the highest incidence of domestic violence, in EUtopia, and their Guardia Civil thugs against people in Barcelona……well !
    Anyway, bagged some tasty red grouse in Glenprosen, only 4 brace for me, but I’ll take that.
    On the EU, in my view, when we go, the whole house of cards will collapse, a good thing too. ;-)

  36. Jezza

    Due to his celebrity status maybe it is time that someone like Mattel created a jezza doll. A bit like action man.Various variations could be made. Rock star Jezza with glastonbury attachments with a speech cord promising to be PM by christmas (year unspecified) or Angry Jezza with bin attachment. Brexit Jezza riding shotgun on the Brexit stagecoach.Then there could be Statesman Jezza.On second thoughts that variant would be just too far fetched.

  37. Ken

    “The Spanish have a bit of form when it comes to gratuitous cruelty in the name of entertainment”

    So you support the independence of Catalunya from such dreadful people – that’s good to know. And the independence of Scotland from a fox-hunting England?

    Actually, your views on these particular issues don’t bother me. It’s the hypocrisy of being selective about them when you apply them to political situations in an arbitrary fashion that causes concern.

    As an ex-grouse beater, I have to say that 4 brace isn’t impressive compared with the Chooky Embra.

    He was much more successful due to sending his dog out to retrieve the kills of other shooters – who didn’t dare complain.

  38. 2 for 1…

    Good grief.

  39. In my ever’so ‘umble opinion, Labour aren’t intent on winning the next election, McDonnell’s Marxist troops are being groomed for power when they move into their mid-twenties and are fully fashioned. At the moment the social media campaign is drawing naive young idealists into the web for later use.
    Jezza is the useful idiot fronting McDonnell’s ambitious attempt to subvert our democracy. ;-)

  40. OLDNAT…..The keeper we had wouldn’t allow a single bird to go lost, he had eyes like a hawk and followed every shot, the Chooky Embra is European, what do you expect……no class.
    If you don’t enjoy the chase, vote awa’ ;-)

  41. “https://chrisgreybrexitblog.blogspot.co.uk/

    Good post”
    @sam November 22nd, 2017 at 8:26 pm

    Thanks for this. Very interesting, and quite nuanced. It’s packed with interesting questions and attempts at trying to understand what Brexit is about. Further down the page, in the item titled Brexiters are retreating deeper into fantasy land it first berates the ignorance of Christopher Chope MP, before going on to add:

    Then we had an informative report on Radio 4’s The World Tonight about the impact of Brexit on the Dutch economy and especially the port of Rotterdam. It featured various Dutch business people explaining how Brexit would hamper trade and, in particular, what it would mean for building new customs facilities at Rotterdam. One of the interviewees bemoaned the ‘lack of realism’ of the British government in its approach to Brexit. The BBC’s misguided interpretation of ‘balance’ means that any factual story about Brexit, which almost invariably shows it to have damaging effects, has to be accompanied by a Brexiter speculating about how wonderful things will be. So, on cue, Crispin Blunt MP appeared (and was subsequently reported here). His response to the report was that it showed that the EU needed us more than we need them, and that the Dutch business people featured should be lobbying the European Commission to give us a good trade deal.

    Mind you, the BBC can’t win. If they ignore the Brexiteer’s views because they are not relevant they will be attacked as being biased.

    But a fascinating blog. Thanks again for the link; I’ll be reading more of it.

  42. I’m awa’ tae ma bed……night all.

  43. “In my ever’so ‘umble opinion, Labour aren’t intent on winning the next election, McDonnell’s Marxist troops are being groomed for power when they move into their mid-twenties and are fully fashioned. At the moment the social media campaign is drawing naive young idealists into the web for later use.
    Jezza is the useful idiot fronting McDonnell’s ambitious attempt to subvert our democracy. ;-)”
    @KEN November 23rd, 2017 at 12:19 am

    I think I’ve spotted a Daily Mail reader. Do I get my £5?

  44. Millie,

    “I’m also not convinced that the government will be deprived of any revenue. Yes they will lose some direct revenue, especially in London, but this might well be balanced by revenue from a stimulus to the market.”

    Where exactly is this new activity coming from. In those areas where prices are below £300k is this really going to make more people buy.

    It might temporarily get some who were going to get their a bit earlier but even at the top end of the current bands the 2% tax on up to £250k only represents 1% of the value.

    According to Which the average first time mortgage is 17% so cutting that by 1% of £250k means you only need to find $40k of a deposit.

    If the measure isn’t really going to make a real difference then it’s just a cosmetic exercise and we deserve better than that.

    Peter.

  45. “Defining a FTB could be tricky though”
    @millie November 22nd, 2017 at 11:49 pm

    My daughter has just bought her first home. Inter alia, she had a document that listed a comprehensive set of conditions that had to be met to be classed as a first-time buyer. Examples included you have never owned a house before (eg as an inheritance), you have never had a mortgage before, either alone or with someone else.

    There were maybe six or seven bullet points on the sheet; I only skim-read it but it looked pretty comprehensive to me. I imagine that not admitting that one or more of these applied would amount to fraud.

  46. Peter

    “we deserve better than that.”

    Since it only applies in rUK (and probably of limited significance in NI, Wales and most of England), I suspect that “we” can be happy to be unaffected – unless “our” taxes are being used to subsidise increased property values for existing house owners in SE England.

  47. @Oldnat

    I’m fascinated by the spectacle of an evidently right-wing grouse shooter berating the EU because some CAP funds are allocated by the Spanish (or Andalucian) government to farms which breed fighting bulls.

    The points you make about subsidiarity, and the usual brexiter abhorrence for meddling by Brussels in the internal affairs of members, are very valid. But what struck me was the hypocrisy of someone who shoots birds for fun, and has as a friend someone who chooses to breed animals for slaughter in another ‘sport’, making this particular complaint.

    I would like to see the ‘sport’ of bird-shooting banned, and if any CAP funds are allowed by the British/Scottish governments to find their way to ‘sporting estates’ I would deprecate that. I hope Ken would join me in wanting to see the EU takes action to make the UK come to heel in this respect, as he appears to wish it to do in respect of Spain?

    Talking of Spain, I mentioned the other day that my local Lidl here sold UK cheddar, and that post-brexit there woud be an opportunity for Irish suppliers to gain the business. In the interests of research, I bought a pack (€3.89 for 400g. About the same as the UK, I think?). And lo and behold, I see it’s from Co Tyrone! So probably a great example of the cross-border agri-trade that will be disrupted by brexit.

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