Yesterday’s Observer had a new YouGov poll of London, commissioned by Queen Mary University London. Full tables for the poll are here.

Labour performed very strongly in London at the general election this year. There was six point swing to Labour compared to a two pooint swing in Britain as a whole, presumably related to London being younger and more pro-European than the rest of England. The first post-election poll of London shows Labour holding on to that dominant position – topline figures with changes since the general election are CON 30%(-3), LAB 55%(nc), LDEM 8%(-1).

Sadiq Khan also continues to enjoy strong support. 58% of Londoners think he is doing well as mayor, and asked a comparative question he rates more positively than either of his predecessors. 58% think Khan is doing a good good, compared to 47% who thought Ken Livingstone did and 46% who think Boris Johnson did.

The poll also asked about TfL declining Uber’s application for a licence renewal. When this was first announced there was a very negative reaction on social media… but of course, that over-represents exactly the sort of people who regularly use Uber. The poll finds that people who regularly use Uber do indeed think it was the wrong decision (by 63% to 27%)… but the majority of Londoners use Uber rarely or never and they approve of the decision. Overall 43% of people think it was right to take away Uber’s licence, 31% think it was wrong. Even among those regular Uber users there’s no obvious sign of a backlash against Khan or Labour. 66% of them still say Khan is doing a good job, 63% say they would vote Labour in an election tomorrow. Personally I’d be extremely surprised if the whole thing didn’t end up with a compromise between TfL and Uber allowing them to renew their licence, but for the moment the polling suggests that the public back Sadiq Khan on the issue.


629 Responses to “YouGov/QMUL poll of London”

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  1. Re: P45

    I don’t condone it, but the attention to detail was impressive. Picture of the P45 reveals:

    Reason for Termination:
    Neither strong or stable
    We’re a bit worried about Jezza

    Total Tax to Date:
    Ask Phillip

    Gender:
    Robot

    Requested By:
    Boris Johnson

    (plus other more factual entries)

    Wild conspiracy theory here. It was all sponsered by George Osborne. After all he probably still has some friends in both Manchester and the Conservative Party who could sneak someone in.

    Having read the actual P45, I have to admit I did sn!gger a bit. Does that make me bad?

    (first version awaiting moderation, I see why now. let’s see if this gets through)

  2. carfrew

    “Well Paul claims people think ANYONE would have won besides Blair and that’s over-egging it rather. I dunno how many think that.”

    Oh for goodness sake… I “dunno” how many people think that either – how would it even be possible to do so?

    But I have read that opinion online enough times to know that numerous people do think that – or claim to do so at least.

  3. enigma

    You’re quite right to correct my laziness.

    I’m not sure why I found it to be so offensive but I think I disapprove of kicking someone when they’re down as a general principle.

    Whether TM really merits my concern I don’t really know.

  4. @Paul Croft

    Well they might quip that even a deranged parrot could have won but whether you should really believe they’re entirely serious is summat else.

    You can if you want though!!

    I don’t see anything wrong in acknowledging that at least Blair was electable where some may not have been. So you can enjoy your cocoa without worrying.

  5. @Paul

    “Whether TM really merits my concern I don’t really know.”

    ——-

    Well she said she wanted to give the P45 to Jezza!!

  6. cf

    Ta. My anxiety levels were getting dangerously high.

  7. On the speech today.

    Yikes.

    Like The Thick of It if scripted by Ricky Gervais.

  8. You should take up music or summat!l

  9. CMJ

    I think you’re right to say that it’s often the case that it suddenly becomes clear that there is no coming back from the slide.

    What makes the current situation so very unusual is the way brexit sort of forces a general inertia of everything else, until that is out of the way.

    Add to that that, substituting the PM without a leadership campaign and then that leader losing authority in an unnecessary general election. And therefore a second substitution being impossible and a second election even more so and, Bob’s yer Uncle, we’re in for a long wait until the closing credits.

    [Unless it’s just a short one of course..]

  10. Carfrew

    “Well she said she wanted to give the P45 to Jezza!!”

    Even for someone who is quick at thinking on their feet (and that isn’t May) it’s hard to produce the right quip in such a situation. [1]

    Typically, however, she chose the wrong one. Wishing that Corbyn got a P45 suggests that she thinks the Lab leader is effective, and a threat to the Tories

    If she had said something like “I’m glad no one gave Jeremy one of these. The longer he stays as labour Party leader, the better!” would have been dismissive of him, and a good party conference partisan crack.

    [1] But most of us have thought later – “Damn. I wish I had said ……” – which is why so few of us are good stage performers.

  11. @Oldnat

    You may well be correct. I was just addressing Paul’s concerns about whether he should continue to be compassionate about Theresa being given a P45 and stuff, when she’s happy enough to pass it on to Corby. And surely he should have been compassionate towards Corby too, unless he has a particular fondness for TM. He’s very disgruntled with things at the mo’ though so prolly best to leave it for now.

  12. “If she had said something like “I’m glad no one gave Jeremy one of these. The longer he stays as labour Party leader, the better!” would have been dismissive of him, and a good party conference partisan crack.”

    If that is the best of your “thought later” quips ON then I’m not sure your immediate, witty response would have been any better that Mrs May’s !

    Given that Corbyn had, demonstrably, just wiped the floor with her virtually throughout the campaign [and since] it would hardly have sounded convincing.

    Must admit that – even after the event – I can’t think of much she could have said that would have worked though.

  13. “Obviously it was a presentational nightmare. The coughing, the P45 and the fall-apart scenery are just one (or three) of those things that shouldn’t happen to a politician but do”

    ———-

    The letters were a bit wonky to begin with before they fell.

  14. Next year’s conference speech will feature an 18 inch tall Stonehenge prop.

  15. @Paul Croft

    We do seems to be in a strange paralysis of Government, and there is no easy solution.

    Given the issues we face over Brexit, the NHS, housing etc, we really need an effective and competent Government.

  16. hawthorn

    They can get the address of a bloke who does really sturdy signs from Ed.

  17. Paul

    Thank you for taking my comments with good grace :-)

    I too don’t like to see someone being kicked while they are down, but I get the impression the stunt was planned over the weekend when Boris was making his blatant attempts to usurp the PM’s authority (remember, the idea was he was supposed to be BoJo’s secretary and had been asked to deliver it by Boris)

    The fact she is ill, wore a bracelet of questionable choice, stood in front of a badly constructed sign, borrowed lines from a TV show makes the whole thing look more cruel within that context. It’s almost as if the universe is conspiring to ‘prank’ her…

    I wonder if Simon himself is feeling a little bit ‘outdone’ by the other events…

  18. TRIGGUY

    That’s a dancer of a P45 …hahahaha

    Some peeps might feel sorry for the PM after todays shenanigans and start to warm to her but just remember the way this woman treats the leader of the opposition on a weekly basis. ..she can be an extremely cold heartless individual.

    Anyway I’m off to my kip to count falling letters.

    Night night peeps.

  19. Could someone hand Junkers a P45 for brokering that illegal tax deal between Luxemburg and Amazon?

  20. I actually think people might be onto something with theories about someone like Osborne being behind the p45 prankster. He must has had connections within the hall to get the accreditation in the first place – and exactly in keeping with the kind of venomous,spiteful coverage Osbourne’s paper has been directing at May.

  21. Hawthorn

    ‘In ancient times, hundreds of years before the dawn of history…’

    ‘Stone’enge!’

    One of my fave films :-)

  22. Paul Croft

    But I’m not a good stage performer in responding to heckling, neither (from your comment) are you. Neither is May.

    That was the point of my comment. Some politicians are polished performers and can turn these situations to their advantage.

    That May has difficulty in deviating from a script is something that she apologised for – but she continues to do it.

  23. ON

    Actually I’m not bad at witty repartee although, as you said, a day later helps.

    I was just suggesting that you’d need to be utterly brilliant at it to have come up with an immediate response that defused the situation and – for me – a few hours later still hasn’t helped.

    Stand-up comics do it as a matter of course but 1/ they are pre-armed with “spontaneous” put-downs and 2/ they can be both rude and coarse, whereas a politician on live tv has a difficult line to walk in that regard.

  24. It will be interesting to see the polling impact of today’s speech.

    The last ‘car crash’ TM moment was when she got such awful headlines was on the eve of the Manchester arena event, and the polls definitely reversed following that, but hard to tell if that was the manifesto or TM’s car crash response to being questioned about it.

    The polls are already showing both leave and remain voters think the Brexit negotiations are going badly. After today’s news reports I think most people will be seriously questioning if TM has the leadership qualities required to continue leading those.

    All those news reports of her at EU summits sitting alone, and in the back row of the photos come to mind. Does she have the emotional intelligence for the role? She strikes me as quite introverted. Nothing against introverts, I am one, but introverts should not be PM.

    Of course, she may just resign off her own bat – It would have to be really hard stepping out again in her current role after today’s performance, and surely she realises by now that she does not have the skills required for the job?

  25. I voted for Blair in 97 even through I knew he was a crook, didn’t vote in another GE for 20 years. Yes another leader could have won that election, maybe they wouldn’t have been able to win 3, that’s unknowable but considering the mess the Tories were in….
    Another leader could possibly changed things more, changed the culture more, and most importantly changed the Tories more. Talking of which, momentum is having a big impact on the Tories, there’s lots of talk about having proper internal democracy in the Tory party, that for me would be a massive achievement if it happens.

  26. One of the most disappointing things about Blair and new labour was 2010. Losing the 2010 election was hardly surprising but the failure of Blair became apparent soon afterwards. Apart from being a bit more socially liberal the Tories hadn’t changed, they were the same toxic stew that were thrown out in 97. Attlee was in power for only 6 years and radically changed the Tory party, Nu Labour had 13 years and achieved next to nothing in that regard.

  27. And of course Jezza isn’t even PM and he’s already changing the tories

  28. @Princess Rach

    That’s a good point Rach, about how much change they induce in the other parties. To be fair to Blair, he did play a big part in shifting the Tories in socially liberal terms, SSM and all that. But yes, on other things…

    (Well I mean, he shifted them onto things like tuition fees and free schools but that’s probably not quite what you meant!!)

  29. He changed them by changing the ground on which both they and the Labour Party have since had to operate, notably by introducing the minimum wage and by changing the relationship of the unions to the electoral basis of representative government – not just towards the Labour Party.
    He also changed the perception of the Social Chapter of the EU in both the main parties, but failed to take that far enough in popular understanding and knowledge of the EU or in using the available mechanisms of subsidiarity to achieve a recognition of the sovereignty which was feasible within the structure of the Single Market, e.g. in realising the Migrant Fund to provide discriminatory support for host communities in areas of high immigratation, which would have served both parties well.

  30. He also may have made it harder for other PMs to go to war, though that might not have been the plan…

  31. @JOHN PILGRIM
    @PRINCESS RACHEL

    If you go deep into Blairs poll numbers you will realised that he was not seen as sincere even by people whom voted for him. Indeed compared to Prescott he was seen as a crook. What people like was his policies or actually to my mind is competence.

    The reality of Blair was that cemented his group within the party and essentially coined the third way but left the detail of social policy to Brown excepting NMW which I think he was passionate about but Brown attempt to limit the effect of.

    I alway think NuLabour social policy essentially the social chapter and Tax credits. Everything else was thatcherism light, or essentially bean counterism, for example his one big tax increase was Pension contributions tax reform

    Blair also invented the daily cycle of news, the media matrix as it were where people expected some policy statement or other to control the news cycle. This also created the omishambles budgets that we consistently have whereby we look for eyecatching policies which when you look at the detail are actually poor policy, the removal of the 10% rating to give people a on the standard rate a tax cut pretty much sums up the style of politic (it led to the politics highlighted by the thick of it )

    Blairism was more a method of government rather than policies we got Brown’s social policy, Education was a mashup of Brown how do we pay for it and Blairs vision of a highly educated population (student loans) and blairs dodgy foreign policy.

    One could say that Blairism and Brownism were different tribes which decided to come together because that was how they could win. Brown interest was plainly getting more money into the system. Blairs was attempt to push public and private interests together. I think both had flawed strategies.

    For example education was essentially supply side led and had really no input from industry (most because we have no real industrial approach) Brown basically milked the only growing industry Financial engineering and thus gave them what they wanted and used the money to expand the state because the alternative was no real earning growth.

    In the end the real problem is that we have to tell people that wealth creation would mean more inequality since the rules of wealth creation have changed.

    You cannot create the social democratic structure we have now with the rules we have now. as Bombardier are finding out, there are WTO rules on subsidies to private companies, nationalisation and the like which means that powerful markets can block your goods. The Airbus versus Boeing WTO issues were brutal and Airbus had had the EU behind it which is why they still exist.

    I think Blair was evolutionary thatcherism, a sort of compassionate conservatism, I think the Tories to differentiate themselves have not got back to that spot in the political dynamic

  32. TM

    Phew…but i think the public will be more forgiving than posters and the agenda driven media.

    Perhaps The government ought to take lessons in competence from.. Trump..Rahoy…Macron or merkel.?

  33. Whatever happens it is clear that talk of a leadership challenge looks like giving no sign of going away anytime soon.

  34. @NEILJ

    I think she will be there until it 2022 since Brexit will not be done until then.

  35. Colin,
    “If the Catalan Seperatists pull the trigger-what’s going to happen”

    The escalation by Spain was entirely predictable at least as one alternative response. So I must assume the Catalan have already planned how they will meet force with force, even though they currently have tried to keep it peaceful. They want the central government to be the first to resort to force so they are morally in the right to respond.

    Media discussion suggested that central government far from granting more independence has been whittling away at their existing powers. They probably felt they had no choice.

    Paul Croft,
    “My view is that the anti-Blair tendency had indulged in a re-write of history in claiming that absolutely anybody would have won that election, with a similar majority.”

    The conservatives lost that election by becoming increasingly unpopular. They scraped back into power by borrowing the support of lib dems, who guess what campaigned against tuition fees. The 2015 government was a better position for the tories alone, but had less vote support than the lib/con combination. And the lib part found its support had disappeared when it betrayed its supporters in the coalition.

    Tories are now trying to adopt Corbyn’s policies, which they had branded as rabidly socialist quite recently. Listening to their options and to pundits, its clear they are trying to give an impression of having the same policy, but without doing it.

    So to answer, not absolutely anyone could have defeted the tories in 97, but Clegg could have, had the electoral system not forced the lab/con duopoly, and probably a range of further left policies could have done so too.

    The tories right now are in an impossible bind. To appeal to remainers, they must abandon flagship leave. To appeal to middle England, they must abandon flagship austerity. Either way, abandoning a flagship policy would offend those who liked that flag, plus open the way for accusations of incompetence up to now.

  36. Somerjohn

    If anybody is lacking in self awareness it’s you.

    Alec

    Your 8.00. A new low in childish humour i see.

  37. Catmanjeff,
    “Given the issues we face over Brexit, the NHS, housing etc, we really need an effective and competent Government.”

    But given the positions the government has adopted in order to be elected, that isnt possible. The two main parties, as required by FPP, have adopted opposite positions. Labour=remain and Tory =Leave. Whatever quibbling about exactly what they mean by it, thats the basic position. Then tory=austerity, Labour = not austerity, another fundamental divide. The tories spent the last two parliaments attacking labour on its spendthrift record in office, but now are going to adopt their policies? It might be the right thing to do, but its politically impossible.

    A competent and authoritative government would cancel Brexit, build several million houses and slash their price, slash the price of securities, eliminate vast amounts of debt throughout the system, rebalance wages to be more equitable, stabilise foreign trade to eliminate the deficit, reorganise education to match supply to demand areas, eliminate inefficient employment practices from the workplace (which might, for example mean sending bankers to pick asparagus), decentralise the Uk away from London, stop incessantly expanding the jail population, encourage more community involvemnt in caring for the elderly rather than privatising it (and anything else in sight).

    Just a quick wish list off the top of my head. Others would differ, and therein lies the problem. Brxit was a project which required national consensus to successully carry it out, and there is no national consensus how to do that. It will simply be another major national problem heaped upon all the ones we already had. Whether it goes ahead or is now stopped, it will be and has already been another major problem for government.

  38. @TOH

    Now i thought this was quite funny and not really childish. If Alec had said that the only embarrassing thing May did not suffer during her speech was a bout of flatulence, that would have been childish.

    “@ALEC
    On the set behind Theresa May today were the words “Building a Country That Works For Everyone”
    I haven’t double checked this yet, but I believe this is an anagram of:
    “Hawking Tory Runt Faces Revolution by Red Boy”
    October 4th, 2017 at 8:00 pm”

    “@THE OTHER HOWARD
    Alec
    “Your 8.00. A new low in childish humour i see.
    October 5th, 2017 at 7:33 am”

  39. R Huckle

    Like so many who post here you lack understanding. I was stating my opinion of a post, not being humorous.

  40. TOH: I was stating my opinion of a post

    Doesn’t your politically correct dogma require an ‘IMO’ when expressing an opinion? Or does that just apply to others?

  41. In her speech, Mrs May did refer to the negotiations with the EU. It was the same set of aspirations she spoke about – a “deep and special relationship”.
    What we want is, ” A partnership that allows us to continue to trade and cooperate with each other, because we see shared challenges and opportunities ahead. But a partnership that ensures the United Kingdom is a sovereign nation once again. A country in which the British people are firmly in control.”

    Mrs May joined David Davis in saying that the UK is making preparations for “no deal”.

    Nothing was said about the EU’s position that sufficient progress needs to be made on the first phase of discussions. The UK ‘s position as set out in the Lancaster House and Florence speeches is still to have its cake and eat it. it looks likely that there will be no agreement on the first phase of talks.

  42. @THE OTHER HOWARD
    “R Huckle
    Like so many who post here you lack understanding. I was stating my opinion of a post, not being humorous.
    October 5th, 2017 at 7:55 am”

    Alec and you, are like an old married couple still sparing after 50 years together.

    I had to go back a couple of pages to find Alecs small post hidden amongst many others discussing different issues.

    Either go through marriage counselling or decide to ignore each other, while trying to occupy the same home.

  43. There is an interesting study published. It looks at the attitudes taken by the public to various aspects of the UK / EU negotiations. Of interest is the lack of interest in the effect of Brexit on NI.

    “In our study, we asked 5000 people to imagine themselves at the negotiating table with the EU trying to get the best possible deal for the UK. We provided a list of seven important issues and asked respondents whether they would drop the demand (“deal”) or if they would be prepared to negotiate (“budge”) or if this was an issue on which they are absolutely unwilling to compromise (“red line”).

    We find (Fig 1) that people seem to care the most about citizens’ rights with 48% naming this as a red line, while 47% mention that future contributions to the EU budget are a no-go. Law-making (aka sovereignty) comes in at third with 38% followed by stopping free movement of people at 36%. People were the least likely to designate the Irish border as a red line. This was also the item with the highest level of ‘Can’t say’, suggesting perhaps that it is just not such a salient issue to most people in the UK (not surprisingly, the majority of our respondents in Northern Ireland say it is a red line – 57%).”

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/10/04/red-lines-and-compromises-how-flexible-is-public-opinion-about-brexit-negotiations/

  44. I predicted after the gracious speech in Florence that she’d be gone by the end of October, shall we have a sweepstake on the date like we do with seats at elections? I’m guessing Friday 13th for the letter to arrive. Even IDS’ quiet man speech didn’t turn up the volume enough to make the writing on the wall actually fall to the ground. Another three or four days of this narrative in the media and out I reckon. IMO obvs.

    On the plus side, it’s given us some respite from Brexit

  45. New Labours great failings (apart from Iraq) was not to invest heavily in social housing – and to place far too much trust in the “wealth generation” powers of the financial sector. A mass house building program would have left an enduring legacy – and probably have staved off defeat in 2010. (George OSbourne is quoted as saying that building council housing just creates labour voters)

    As it is most of their progressive policy achievements – social liberal measures aside – has been shredded by the tories austerity policies.
    Blair was no magician and there was not any great mass enthusiasm for him amongst the public – as is there is for corbyn and was for thatcher.
    However he was loved by the media and the liberal elements of the establishment – so he got an astonishingly easy ride whilst the tories were derided.
    John Smith would have won easily in 1997 as would a more left wing program – but labour was psychologically scared by 1992 and when blair became leader the right of the party were able to push through their “third way” agenda without serious resistance.
    However one should not dismiss Blair’s talents in presentation and performance – there was a man who fake sincerity like no other.

  46. R Huckle

    The trouble is I have been trying to get Alec to do that for a long time now. He’s a bit like Peter Cairns and Somerjohn who also show the same obsessive tendancies IMO. If all three ignored my posts I would be delighted. What I will not do is stop posting, this site is so unbalenced now that it needs some reason from time to time.

  47. It’s interesting that the Tories are now apparently going to implement Ed Miliband’s Labour manifesto from 2015, the one they so decisevly rubbished at the time.

    And they say Jeremy Corbyn is not a Prime Minister in waiting!

  48. decisively

  49. Howard

    ” What I will not do is stop posting, this site is so unbalenced now that it needs some reason from time to time.”

    I’m sure that, on reflection, you’ll acknowledge that equating your own views as offering “reason”, rather than just one alternative viewpoint [which is all they are really] doesn’t come over very well.

    For what it’s worth I thought Alec’s anagram was rather tortured and pointless – but it’s a strange genre anyway.

  50. rachel

    “I voted for Blair in 97 even through I knew he was a crook,”

    What was it that you knew he had stolen?

    “Yes another leader could have won that election,”

    Almost certainly so. Equally some may well have failed to do so. But I’m not sure that any would have achieved Blair’s majority.

    The biggest disappointment thereafter was how little he achieved with it – although it’s impossible to know how much shared responsibility Brown had for that.

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