Yesterday’s Observer had a new YouGov poll of London, commissioned by Queen Mary University London. Full tables for the poll are here.

Labour performed very strongly in London at the general election this year. There was six point swing to Labour compared to a two pooint swing in Britain as a whole, presumably related to London being younger and more pro-European than the rest of England. The first post-election poll of London shows Labour holding on to that dominant position – topline figures with changes since the general election are CON 30%(-3), LAB 55%(nc), LDEM 8%(-1).

Sadiq Khan also continues to enjoy strong support. 58% of Londoners think he is doing well as mayor, and asked a comparative question he rates more positively than either of his predecessors. 58% think Khan is doing a good good, compared to 47% who thought Ken Livingstone did and 46% who think Boris Johnson did.

The poll also asked about TfL declining Uber’s application for a licence renewal. When this was first announced there was a very negative reaction on social media… but of course, that over-represents exactly the sort of people who regularly use Uber. The poll finds that people who regularly use Uber do indeed think it was the wrong decision (by 63% to 27%)… but the majority of Londoners use Uber rarely or never and they approve of the decision. Overall 43% of people think it was right to take away Uber’s licence, 31% think it was wrong. Even among those regular Uber users there’s no obvious sign of a backlash against Khan or Labour. 66% of them still say Khan is doing a good job, 63% say they would vote Labour in an election tomorrow. Personally I’d be extremely surprised if the whole thing didn’t end up with a compromise between TfL and Uber allowing them to renew their licence, but for the moment the polling suggests that the public back Sadiq Khan on the issue.


629 Responses to “YouGov/QMUL poll of London”

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  1. SThomas

    “d. Lower taxes.
    e. good schools
    f. A properly funded care scheme for their parents who this group are just beginning to worry about.”

    I can see a little problem there…..

  2. @FROSTY

    i AGREE Londoners are bored with The Garden bridge but are glad it is over. In fairness Londoners are fairly selfish and often need real persuasion. I remember the Olympics where there was a real undercurrent of not wanting it for ages and then deciding to come around when it was found to be fun and essentially a great break from the drudgery of the now at the time.

    We seem to blow hot and cold on people rather quickly and in many ways can be quite contrarian. BoJo is the ultimate with that regard. Winning the Mayoral race twice but basically this not carrying into the London assembly elections the second time. Londoners are liberals more than they are anything else and BoJo put on his big liberal hat both times. Is it clear that the Tories will be out of the London race for a while. I think so the idea that you can crap from a great height on young people because they do not vote is coming to an end, I am not sure how they will react but I cannot see them doing nothing

  3. S THomas

    Pretty much agree with that.

    My prescription would be :-

    *Brexit-look-you voted to Leave by a majority-we are in Government so we have to get it done. Without crashing the economy.
    *Public Finance-We believe in sound money. The Deficit has to be reduced. Total Debt is a risk when interest rates rise. We will not be going on a Marxist spending spree.
    * Public Services-Its been a long haul. People are hurting. We will find funds -or deficit reduction timescale which which to address these .
    *Students-The present system is progressive. It is fair on the lower paid graduate. Adjust Loan Interest, Repayment thresholds & University degree teaching quality.
    * Housing-As S Thomas says-build build build-clear away blockages in the system. Ensure affordable content.
    * Rented Sector. I’m not an expert but this is a huge area of Millenial grievance-just address the key ones as much as possible.
    * Welfare-stop all the abuses that the System arbitrarily imposes on vulnerable people. Role out UC & make sure it “makes work pay”
    * NHS-support Hunt on quality & care outputs-but give him the money he asks for.
    * Industrial Strategy-Go Big on City Hub Effect in North & Midlands-support the Mayors.Put money into Battery Technology-make UK a world leader.
    *Care in Old Age-Just think about what is fair & effective-communicate it properly & get it rolled out.
    * Next GE Campaign-ask Andy Street how he won-and copy it. Defend the Market Economy & Aspiration, Define what you think of as “Fairness” and spell it out. Attack McDonnell and his policies relentlessly.

  4. SORBUS

    Yes I saw the report which quoted her saying that.

    Why do you ask?

  5. The conservatives are breaking formal links with university groups due to ‘ risky politics’ .

    Not really embracing the young voters yet then.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/tory-university-conservative-young_uk_59d2968de4b0f96298893b80

  6. @S THOMAS

    Isn’t that just Corbynista lite? And does it not cost nearly as much full fat Corbynista?

    Is not the problem that Corbyn has hit everything that you are asking the Tories to fix. It isn’t as if the Tories had not had 7 years to sort it out. If we did not have the election would we have all gone on saying Tory good Labour bad. Is it because the Tories are losing the argument that this is now the thing to do.

    it wasn’t on June the 8th so I am not sure that they will be able to sell this now. As someone said you are now trying to outspend Labour with outspending. I do not see them going for 3K for student loans and money for everything else.

  7. I won’t be surprised if it’s confirmed that Davis has had enough of Brexit.

    There seems to be a clear pattern of those who accept that – as Colin puts it – “we are in Government so we have to get it done. Without crashing the economy.” to realise after a while up close and personal with the Brexit process, that they can’t square the circle. It can’t be done without crashing the economy.

    While those on the sidelines may sneer and talk of betrayal and faint hearts, they aren’t the ones who have to deliver the impossible. Could it be that Davis’s message to Boris is, “OK, if you think it’s so easy, you have a go” (which is more or less what May said when appointing the 3 brexiteers).

    Where Davis leads, May is likely to follow, leaving Boris holding the parcel. Heaven help us if that happens (IMO).

  8. @FPTP

    “Is not the problem that Corbyn has hit everything that you are asking the Tories to fix.”

    ———-

    The even bigger problem comes if peeps are persuaded Tories needlessly caused many of the problems in the first place. Obviously that idea would not necessarily be welcome here in this bubble, but you can be pretty confident the evidence for it is being stacked up by peeps elsewhere.

  9. Good afternoon all from a mild grey Central London.

    Probably the most interesting aspect of the Tory party conference is the venue. I like my railway stations, even ones that have been converted into conference venues.

    On the yoof vote..Now at 26 I don’t consider myself to fall into that category but possibly fall into the younger voter category and you know as a youngish voter I do think there is a lot of mistrust from my peers towards the Tories.

    Like M&S the Tories are viewed as an old persons stiff upper lip organisation detached from the reality of todays yoof. The party historically has snubbed the younger voter and instead concentrated its policies to please the well off shire grey vote.

    Don’t get me wrong, there are areas of the Tories where I agree with such as aspiring people to get on in life and making a success of themselves and less intrusive small government but that shouldn’t come at a cost to other sections of the population who for numerous reasons don’t have the same chances in life and are often stigmatised against.

  10. “Like M&S the Tories are viewed as an old persons stiff upper lip organisation detached from the reality of todays yoof. The party historically has snubbed the younger voter and instead concentrated its policies to please the well off shire grey vote.”

    ————

    According to the article, it’s to do with “embarrassing incidents” such as burning those tenders and the effigy thing. Plus they don’t seem to get enough party campaigning out of them.

  11. tenders = tenners

  12. @ WB – thanks, the Guardian link was the one I found yesterday. It seems like a very progressive policy (IMHO). I’m very worried about crowding out non-Uni options and think Uni should be seen as an investment in ones own future. That investment should be throughly thought out by each young adult but since rich parents will provide the funds for their children then some method to level the playing field seems very progressive. I really don’t understand the dislike for the policy.

  13. @Norbold

    “I can see a little problem there…..”

    ——–

    Nothing a magic money tree won’t fix! They’re all the rage these days…

  14. @ COLIN – agree your list but think May needs something a little more dramatic to turn the tide and start the process of winning back voters, especially younger voters.

    @ ALLEN CHRISTIE – CON manifesto attacked the ‘shire grey folks’ by plans to end the triple lock, means test Winter fuel and a Robin Hood tax on winning the postcode lottery on housing. I seem to remember McDonnell calling that a triple punch on pensioners or something? CON have dropped all those policies now and no party is going to attack the grey vote ever again so the generational wealth gap and demographic time bomb will not be addressed.

  15. @Trevor

    “I really don’t understand the dislike for the policy.”

    ———

    Might be because you’re not engaging with the downsides of it. Means testing introduces needless bureaucracy and stigma and heaps a pile of interest-inflated debt on them. The old system of clawing it back through tax avoided all that while still ensuring those who earned more paid more. The government has to pay up front anyway! This is before getting to its contribution towards the inter-generational unfairness which gets glossed over rather…

  16. @NORBOLD

    “I currently rent two storage units for all my books…..”

    ———

    Welcome fellow storagist!! We need our own party, obvs.

  17. Colin,

    Nice try but would we not be more likely to get the real version.

    *Brexit-look-you voted to Leave by a majority-we are in Government so we have to get it done. Without crashing the economy.

    But as we can’t do that we will negotiate what we can but the economy and the Uk’s standing will both containable suffer long term damage. We will get our sovereignty back but it won’t change much and we will still be divided and inward looking.

    *Public Finance-We believe in sound money. The Deficit has to be reduced. Total Debt is a risk when interest rates rise. We will not be going on a Marxist spending spree.

    We will however keep interest rates artificially low while printing money even though it makes a mockery of our claim to believe in sound money. Total debt will come down but for decades to come it will still be far higher than before the crash as it is so large now we couldn’t cut into it meaningfully with Tax rises and spending cuts that would crash the economy.

    * Public Services-Its been a long haul. People are hurting. We will find funds -or deficit reduction timescale which which to address these .

    We will continue with the policy of the last five years of offering sympathy and warm words but do nothing of any real benefit.

    *Students-The present system is progressive. It is fair on the lower paid graduate. Adjust Loan Interest, Repayment thresholds & University degree teaching quality.

    However we have no solution to the ever growing mountain of debt, now over £100bn most of which will never be repaid. We know the system doesn’t work but we can’t abandon it as we can’t afford the alternative.

    * Housing-As S Thomas says-build build build-clear away blockages in the system. Ensure affordable content.

    We will continue to put the private sector at the heart of our plans and will therefore not increase funds to Councils for social housing. The private sector, banks and Builders will therefore continue to built to the market and chase profit with the focus on keeping supply limited to keep prices high. despite the fact that they manipulate the system for their own benefit we will continue to parrot their myth that the problem is “blockages in the system. Even though house prices are at the core of the problem we will defend against anything that makes housing more affordable that would harm house prices as these are the driver of the consumer economy.

    * Rented Sector. I’m not an expert but this is a huge area of Millenial grievance-just address the key ones as much as possible. Like house prices lending on buy to rent is a major part of the financial sector and like the city will be protected. again limited supply keeps values and profits up so we will make noises but take no effective action.

    * Welfare-stop all the abuses that the System arbitrarily imposes on vulnerable people. Role out UC & make sure it “makes work pay”

    As we need to save money without losing middle class votes we will continue to pursue this policy despite evidence that it is causing real hardship. with the economy increasing lower paid jobs than those lost and the possibility of post Brexit Labour shortages it is important that benefits are cut to force people into the labour market. Nothing makes work pay more than destitution!

    * NHS-support Hunt on quality & care outputs-but give him the money he asks for.

    We all know the problems in the NHS can neither be solved by another restructuring or that we can afford to put in the kinds of sums the public wants and would be needed but that is no reason not to give the appearance where possible that our next reforms will deliver and that we are pumping money in.

    * Industrial Strategy-Go Big on City Hub Effect in North & Midlands-support the Mayors.Put money into Battery Technology-make UK a world leader.

    With Industry likely post Brexit to fall to 20% of the economy and the fall out from it we will package damage limitation and the inevitable difficult restructuring due too brexit as an Industrial strategy. All sums will be over a decade tied to a grand vision of a new industrial revolution in the hope that no one notices we are hardly spending anything.

    *Care in Old Age-Just think about what is fair & effective-communicate it properly & get it rolled out.

    Ideal for Mrs May as what we need is a set of strong sounding cliches like Brexit means Brexit and Strong and stable to show that we really mean business on this one and are determinedly going forward while not ruling anything out. we will also not actually be coming forward with a policy either.

    * Next GE Campaign-ask Andy Street how he won-and copy it.

    I goes without saying that as Government we should have a good idea about how to do this but as we don’t lets just ask someone else, cut and paste what he says and just hope for the best.

    Defend the Market Economy & Aspiration.

    The British dream, low Taxes ever rising house prices and debt driven growth on the never never. effectively what we have backed for the last 30years and which has also quite clearly got us in this mess.

    Define what you think of as “Fairness” and spell it out.

    Fairness is those that do well doing so in enough numbers to keep us in power and focusing policy on keeping them happy while telling them that as Right minded Hard working decent Families, Fairness is them getting what they want.

    for the others that don’t vote for us we will have Tough fairness, spending less on them and giving them fewer chances in life because it’s only fair that our supports get the benefits rather than help them out.

    Attack McDonnell and his policies relentlessly.

    because the more we vilify him and make his policies the issue the less people will focus on how economically illiterate and moral vacuous our are.

    Peter.

  18. TREVOR WARNE

    I doubt :-
    a) Whether it can be fixed in the short term by dramatic policy gestures.
    b) Whether May can facilitate it.

    First job -for me-after Brexit find a new leader who does not elicit the response from under 45s-just another Toff in a suit. Someone who looks & sounds vaguely like them. Someone who understands their aspirations & difficulties .

    That hopefully gets you a hearing. If they aren’t listening ,policy is pointless.

  19. @Trevor

    “Carfrew (from y’day) – so why have the Welsh now put in a means tested approach? Maybe the influence of the 1 LDEM AM in the devolved WLAB coalition?”

    ——-

    Possibly Trevor, dunno the local politics.

  20. CARFREW

    If the Tories want to get more campaigning from the yoofs then there has to be incentives. ..Free lollypops or even subsidised hash roll-ups. ;-)

  21. Peter Cairns

    @”would we not be more likely to get the real version.”

    You mean your version.?

    No-my version is what I proposed.

    You don’t need to be an SNP supporter Peter to understand that if you tell lies, talk cobblers & do the opposite of what you say you will do-voters start to walk away from you.

  22. @JP

    “Yeah, but it’s like good, hands- off state involvement: strictly done on commercial banking terms, covering costs of the money and a mark-up to make the investment institution viable, and can provide value-added, forgeing linkages with supply and marketing chains or providing,technical support and training,tapping into competitive specialist private or civil sector suppy, which can be written into the loan agreement.”

    ———

    Well if it works, then that’s good. That’s the thing, there are plenty examples of the utility of state investment, from the Internet to GOS to ensuring universality of education and bailing out strategic industries to prosper later, and eradicating diseases the private sector wouldn’t eradicate, or creating a market to sustain new tech like computer chips etc. etc. but it’s a case of over time spotting the best ways and refining the process. State investment of the modern kind is relatively young, and bugs are still being ironed out of the system.

    At times it might be better to have an arms-length approach, as you’re suggesting…

  23. from the Internet to GPS…

  24. @AC

    Well as it happens you’re on the money: they gave free pizzas and curries to the ones who helped in the 2015 campaign. And introduced the element of competition! I think they stopped short of offering shares and stuff though…

  25. ptrp

    The great advantage of winning an election is that one controls the purse strings. By the time tories make their final tuition fees offer we may well be close to surplus. they might reason that 10bn here and 10bn there is better for the country than Jezza at large. Maybe we could direct the eU fees into further education? That would paint a problem for our gilded youth. Low fees or the EU?Jezza being played at his own game.

    Besides reducing the fees to 3k does not affect government expenditure only what the government recovers. with actual repayments low and with a higher threshold there may not be much diiference.

    and i just love our politico media agenda to remove Boris.They say TM is weak for not sacking Boris.how dare he try to influence eU policy. a strong leader like Blair would never gave allowed this…er… accept that he did. He could not sack Brown despite Brown thwarting him on the Euro. He was unsackable.Then there was Cameron. Our amnesiac journos bluster about collective responsibility. That died in the coalition. And could Cameron have sacked Clegg?No.
    For elite Remainers it is chess. Sack boris; he challenges May;brexit either collapses or general election chaos. best stay in the EU. Checkmate.

  26. TREVOR WARNE

    Historically the Tories have been seen as a bastion for the grey vote and even though many of their policies today have in fact target grey voters wealth, the perception is still there that they are still a party for the few and not the many.

    A wealthy pensioner today would be better off under the Tories than a single parent or a poorly paid worker.

  27. Its interesting that having secured their highest vote share since – 1992? – the tories are now in a state of panic. The loss of nerve is palpable.
    How much longer can May carry on? Why would she want to? The temptation to hand the keys of no 10 to Johnson, say “all yours mate” and walk away must be close to irresistible.

    The fissures between the … er… “romantic brextiers” and the “realists” seem to grow greater by the day. It is paralysing the brexit process as the EU wait impatiently for the UK government to decide what it wants – but every time they get down to sorting out the detail – this or that senior tory will throw their toys out of the pram.

  28. @ToH

    “Sadly we would need to move house if I bought another CD cabinet or bookcase and we really are too old to want the hassle of moving to a larger house.”

    ———

    Yes, I wasn’t on about the IKEA kind of unit, but the kind that Osborne sought to tax when he was in charge. i may have mentioned this before…

  29. @AC

    Yes, they’re in a bit of a bind, if to keep their existing vote they have to keep pandering to boomers, but then if in the process that continues to stoke the concerns of the younger generations…

  30. Juncker & The Commission will not endear themselves to the Catalans with their comments.

    A European Union enforced on its citizens by its police forces is not a great advert.

    Does Juncker not understand that his fears about “populist” politicians will only be addressed if he listens to voters.

    Merkel is beginning to understand this :-

    http://www.politico.eu/article/seehofer-coalition-talks-with-merkels-cdu-most-difficult-since-1976/

  31. @ CARFREW – I received means tested assistance to attend Uni. If I hadn’t I doubt I’d have gone. Stigma?!? State helping out has -ve stigma??? I didn’t have to wear a badge saying ‘state aided’ or form a separate queue to get free lunches (that was bad stigma). Bureaucracy I agree is not ideal but whenever the state seeks to intervene to level the playing field some bureaucracy and some cheating is unavoidable but you seem to attack the very principle of a progressive approach.

    What will happen to demand if places are ‘free’? Where are all the jobs that need these degrees? From the Times report:

    “there are about 200,000 jobs for new graduates annually. And yet in the summer of 2015, an estimated 375,000 students completed first degrees in the UK, almost double the number of graduate-level positions available.”

    Lots of info on the best-worst courses and best-worst locations etc as I know you aren’t blocked by the firewall.

    https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/harsh-lesson-the-degrees-with-worst-job-prospects-j2mx8scw9xg

    I’m not keen on state intervention but if means testing is “bad” then how about STEMM type assistance? (extra M = medicine in the broadest sense and matches the jobs with the highest post graduate success rate). If you take a degree in a job with high chance of societal need then you get some reduction on fees – easier to administer and better serves society?

    Something seems to be going seriously wrong with career planning at the moment. A lot of 18y olds are taking a course that has only 50% chance of getting a professional job and/or attending a ‘university’ with a similarly low rate of success and getting themselves into serious debt in the process. Clearly ramping up fees did not fix the demand/supply problem (after a small drop, university take-up is back to record highs).

    The supply side of non-degree jobs needs to be tackled as well. Jeremy Hunt’s news today has been instantly slammed but the concept is valid – not every job needs a 3y degree and most of the ‘academic’ side can be conducted via short courses, day release, night school, etc with a lot more emphasis on the ‘skill’ side being on the job.

    ideally we create more jobs that need a first degree but that requires a competitive economy and I’m sure we’ll disagree on that.

  32. @ ALLEN CHRISTIE – If May had a 40+ majority and put in the ‘triple punch’ to pensioners then pensioners would be worse off under CON than LAB in the near future.

    You talk ‘historically’ but clearly did not either read or understand the different manifestos which described the future plans of each party.

    In hindsight it was a mistake. CON lost Eastbourne and failed to gain North Norfolk due entirely to many rich pensioners voting LDEM. Possibly made the decisive difference in a few London and other seats as well but those issues were masked by a pro-Brexit youth surge for LAB.

  33. @Trevor

    “@ CARFREW – I received means tested assistance to attend Uni. If I hadn’t I doubt I’d have gone. Stigma?!? State helping out has -ve stigma??? I didn’t have to wear a badge saying ‘state aided’ or form a separate queue to get free lunches (that was bad stigma). Bureaucracy I agree is not ideal but whenever the state seeks to intervene to level the playing field some bureaucracy and some cheating is unavoidable but you seem to attack the very principle of a progressive approach.”

    ———-

    Yes I am struggling to make it clear enough for you. In that instance the stigma is reduced because the money is clawed back through tax from higher earners.

    But if you never experienced stigma as a result, you were lucky. Or just possibly unaware. People don’t necessarily make it obvious.

    It can depend on other things too though that you might not have experienced. Like some might resent paying for the offspring of foreign peeps.

    But there is also the dignity factor, as I pointed out about free school meals. People not claiming them despite eligibility.

    Then there’s the needless bureaucracy, the burden of interest-bearing debt when we already had a more efficient mechanism.

  34. @Trevor

    Modern advanced economies DEPEND on state intervention in jobs. Capital seeks to eliminate labour if it costs them, or else they drive down wages. Thus after the war we had a programme of full employment that despite recovering from the ravages of war saw our economy grow for decades and living standards keep rising and you could raise a family on a single wage.

    Not just in terms of creating jobs but preserving the good ones in a downturn. The Amerivans and French and others bailed out their car industries suffering in the oil crisis or financial crash and reaped the rewards down the line. You have to protect strategic industries because so many other jobs depend on it. We bailed out the banks though!

    Then there are all the jobs crested by state investment, from in the Internet to GPS, satcomms, the nurturing of the chip market are highlights but there is Loads more. The irony comes when people use the Internet to complain about state investment. We need the state to ensure universal coverage re: literacy.

    Recently state subsidies supported the renewables market and now costs are plummeting. There is loads still required that would save us money, from affordable housing to flood defences.

  35. @Trevor

    This idea that not every job needs a degree. Well perhaps, but you are missing the point behind higher education. Lots of liberals miss this too, despite how obvious it is.

    The purpose of the education is not to simply train them for a job. It is to improve their thinking skills so that they might be more capable in a variety of ways. This may mean they might be able to rise up the ladder more than otherwise, or else maybe start up a business down the line, or contribute in other ways including more enlightened voting.

    To complain that there are only lower level jobs for them is typical liberal defeatism, when we could be creating or supporting better jobs instead like we used to do more of.

  36. Research supports the idea that means testing reduces uptake of social security benefits.

    http://touchstoneblog.org.uk/2009/09/means-testing-benefits-reduces-take-up/

  37. @Trevor

    Most jobs don’t require a degree, that’s why most people in the UK and most people in the workforce don’t have one and why most young people in the UK won’t go to university.

    You’re attacking a straw man.

  38. @Trevor

    Also, The ability to innovate their way out of the bind is being eroded.

    Suppose they want to get out of the hole of low level jobs and zero hours. They don’t have much money to invest what with zero hours and rent, utilities and other living costs but they scrape some together and might try and start a business, but if property prices are jacked up and hence renting a shop costs loads more, and utility bills, and business rates, you can see the problem. Double whammy.

    They might still try and innovate around these constraints with street food and pop ups but you can see the limitations of that. It is a massive and growing problem. More and more ladders pulled up, and they are being inhibited in leveraging their education.

  39. colin

    “First job -for me-after Brexit find a new leader who does not elicit the response from under 45s-just another Toff in a suit. Someone who looks & sounds vaguely like them. Someone who understands their aspirations & difficulties .”

    May I present Jacob Rees-Mogg as the perfect match for the above criteria ?

  40. COLIN
    ” Public Services-Its been a long haul”
    The problem with that one is that long hauls are meant to go uphill.

  41. Very hard to take seriously on constitutional issues a minister who confuses Scotland and Wales.

  42. “On the yoof vote..Now at 26 I don’t consider myself to fall into that category”
    @ALLAN CHRISTIE October 3rd, 2017 at 12:56 pm

    Well, when you are 36, or 46, or 56… you may come to a different conclusion. Oh to be 26 again. Then again

    No wise man ever wished to be younger.
    http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/27607.html
    Jonathan Swift

  43. TREVOR WARNE (fpt)

    @ ROGER MEXICO – why do you think the members poll is representative? Pollsters try to reweight polls to reflect a representative sample. Do you think if you just ask 1,001 people (as in the post election poll) but don’t have a process of reweighting them that they genuinely reflect 100,000 members???

    The question is the other way round. Why do you thnk it is unrepresentative. It is a random sample from those members of the YouGov panel who have told them they are Conservative members[1]. There’s no evidence that they differ in make-up from the general run of Tory members, other than your own feelings.

    We know that YouGov’s analysis of Labour members was pretty accurate both in terms of the result they got in 2015 and 2016 and also where they could match up against publicaly available demographics and choices (ie not much weighting was needed). There’s nothing to suggest their Tories would be any further away from reality.

    Other pieces that you see discussing the Tory and other memberships turn out to derive their data directly or indirectly from the Party Members Project (PMP):

    https://esrcpartymembersproject.org/

    which in turn relies on YouGov panel surveys for its figures. For example a piece on Sunday by Zoe Williams:

    https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/oct/01/tories-weak-directionless-pary-members

    is based on press reports of the post-2015 election survey (which makes it particularly unreliable for Labour).

    So basically YouGov is the only game in town and there’s nothing really to suggest it is massively out of line with reality, in particular with regard to positions held in regard to Brexit.

    [1] I suspect there may be some confusion over who is a member or not as the Conservatives have dabbled with various ‘supporters’ schemes over the years which may lead some people to think they are members when not (or vice versa). I also suspect their admin isn’t great, in part because of a tradition of local rather than central record keeping.

  44. RE: Alan Duncan

    Polly Toynbee’s article in the Gruaniad today muses upon Tory schisms around Brexit: AD is a junior minister in the Foreign Office, a greater contrast between his words and those of BoJo is difficult to imagine. The question must be “how important is Brexit policy to those on both sides of the argument in the Tory party, in comparison to other policy objectives? If it is the most important issue of all then reconciliation appears difficult.

    On another point given AD’s straying from the Government position on optimism on trade, is he unsackable?

  45. @ CARFREW – Neither my mother or I can remember exactly how it worked back in the 1980s but it appears to have been 2,265/annum (equiv of nearer 6,000 today) and required some up-front forms but otherwise invisible. I assume some forms are required for student loans so it could be as simple as adding an extra page if you want to request assistance – all in the privacy of yourself and your computer. I understand it can be complicated in many individual circumstances hence so curious about the new Welsh approach.

    Historical piece on student %s and govt help over the post war decades her:
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2003/jan/23/uk.education

    I understand the need for life-long skills assistance and probably more to be done to encourage people to do block week or evening classes, etc (partially govt funded perhaps) – plenty of my family have taken those over the years. Scholarships have been useful as well but thats a bit off topic.

    We agree the current system has faults. I’m just trying to find a more cost effective and progressive way of tackling the problem that doesn’t create an even worse problem in the supply of graduates with the respect to graduate opportunities. I have no issue with 1p more or so on top rate of tax or leaving the upper bands unchanged and picking up a few bn in fiscal drag in order to create 2bnish for some kind of assistance scheme or partially/fully funded further education for those in low paid jobs. I like the twist of making sure the courses have future demand but acknowledge the slippery slope of intervention and state planning.

    My interest is mostly as my kids are very close to Uni age and hence its a pretty live discussion in our household. Trying to reconcile individual university’s stated post graduate employment records to the national figures means you really have to dig into the types of courses, ‘name’ of the university and real job opportunities in a lot more detail that the Uni PR. Some of the marketing from some Unis looks a lot like advertising cigarettes to children – hence my issues with the supply side of Uni degree courses.

  46. @ ROGER MEXICO – If May was to be replaced it would be with a ‘harder’ Brexit leader (e.g. Boris). If you think otherwise (e.g. Davison, Rudd or Hammond) please show me your analysis.

  47. Norbold,

    Just cut the trillions we spend on health tourists. Then, you can have fully-funded social care, lower taxes, AND cure world hunger.

  48. AW
    “Your comment is awaiting moderation…..”
    And in the meantime will lose its immediacy and relevance, for no discernible cause. If there is any human intelligence actually doing this deferred moderation, could you kindly get it to put in just a fraction of the thought and effort I and others sufferring this oppression have devoted to our pathetic emissions? In observing the rules of the site, I expect to be engaged in a dialogue – not in a conflict with some mindles bit of electronics.

  49. IFS: “New higher loan repayment threshold is a big (and expensive) giveaway to graduates”

    “Raising the repayment threshold to £25,000 is a seemingly small change to the student loan system, but it will save middle earning graduates up to £15,700 in repayments over their lifetimes. This comes at a considerable cost to the taxpayer, raising the long-run cost of providing Higher Education by £2.3 billion per year, an increase of 40%.”

    https://www.ifs.org.uk/publications/9965

    I very much doubt youth voters received that message though. CON PR machine is a shambles and the moral hazard implications send totally the wrong message (IMHO).

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