Yesterday’s Observer had a new YouGov poll of London, commissioned by Queen Mary University London. Full tables for the poll are here.

Labour performed very strongly in London at the general election this year. There was six point swing to Labour compared to a two pooint swing in Britain as a whole, presumably related to London being younger and more pro-European than the rest of England. The first post-election poll of London shows Labour holding on to that dominant position – topline figures with changes since the general election are CON 30%(-3), LAB 55%(nc), LDEM 8%(-1).

Sadiq Khan also continues to enjoy strong support. 58% of Londoners think he is doing well as mayor, and asked a comparative question he rates more positively than either of his predecessors. 58% think Khan is doing a good good, compared to 47% who thought Ken Livingstone did and 46% who think Boris Johnson did.

The poll also asked about TfL declining Uber’s application for a licence renewal. When this was first announced there was a very negative reaction on social media… but of course, that over-represents exactly the sort of people who regularly use Uber. The poll finds that people who regularly use Uber do indeed think it was the wrong decision (by 63% to 27%)… but the majority of Londoners use Uber rarely or never and they approve of the decision. Overall 43% of people think it was right to take away Uber’s licence, 31% think it was wrong. Even among those regular Uber users there’s no obvious sign of a backlash against Khan or Labour. 66% of them still say Khan is doing a good job, 63% say they would vote Labour in an election tomorrow. Personally I’d be extremely surprised if the whole thing didn’t end up with a compromise between TfL and Uber allowing them to renew their licence, but for the moment the polling suggests that the public back Sadiq Khan on the issue.


629 Responses to “YouGov/QMUL poll of London”

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  1. Paul Croft

    It does to me :-)

    Listening to Paul O’Dette playing Kapsberger’s Lute Works. Delightful playing, thanks for suggesting O’Dette.

  2. @TOH – do stop being such an overinflated grump, for heaven’s sake.

    Politics aside, to get the anagram
    “Hawking Tory Runt Faces Revolution by Red Boy” from

    “Building a Country That Works For Everyone” is, in the realms of complex anagrams, extraordinary.

    It is so rare to generate an anagram that has coherent meaning, and very rare for this to apply directly to a given situation. The comedy in this is pretty awesome, with a coughing Theresa May (‘hawking Tory runt’) facing a revolution (radical Labour party) led by a left wing socialist (Corbyn).

    The point of this is humour, not an attack on May. I remain extremely proud of this anagram – one of my best. If you can’t raise a smile for something like this, then Brexitland looks like being a very dull and grey place.

  3. @Princess R – there is an interesting article by Larry Elliot in today’s Grungiad.

    He makes the point that of the three huge economic shocks in the last 100 years (the Great Depression, the oil crisis and collapse of social democracy in the 1970’s and the 2008 financial crash) the first two both led in due course to complete change in public perception of politics. Ten years on from the financial crash, we are now seemingly witnessing something similar in terms of shifting public mood.

    He also suggests that Brexit has in effect cleared the decks, and allowed Labour space to be radical.

    The fact of the matter was that 1997 didn’t really change anything fundamental, because the fundamental views of the public had remained intact.

  4. Alec

    If anybody is overinflated it’s you judging by the length of some of your posts. Please take my advice and ignore my contributions, they clearly make you unhappy.

    The last thing Brexitland as you call it is dull and grey. As Paul will tell you Paul O’Dette’s playing is a delight.

  5. The issue is not the speech. The issue is the terrible election campaign and result. May wanted a chance to fix some of that and find a way to show herself as the right one for the job. Everything went wrong.

    So yes people will sympathise with her (whilst laughing) but it makes no difference. Shes already lost her job. The big problem I think is that the Tory MPs are realising they cant go a few years before removing the damaged PM – everything she does is seen as trying to survive and she seems unable to make an impact with policy.

    Never felt this ‘wait for brexit’ thing was really a great plan. They’ve got themselves and the party in an awkward spot. I think its likely they will agree an interim leader/PM. May was suppose to be it. She cant be without damaging the party moreso.

  6. Oldnat,
    “Whether PFI can seriously be classified as “proper” funding is a very different matter – but we hadn’t been alerted to its disastrous consequences then.”

    It had already featured in the media as a very expensive way to do government projects before labour got in. I recall thinking they would at least stop that continuing.

  7. alec

    “The fact of the matter was that 1997 didn’t really change anything fundamental, because the fundamental views of the public had remained intact.”

    That is very succinctly put. When I wrote about people “re-writing history” that is the very issue I was trying to address.

    Believing that Corbyn or Benn could have won in 1997 because, twenty years later, Corbyn is nearly as popular as Theresa May and the Labour Party only 60 seats or so behind the Tories, is simply self-delusion.

    I was hugely disappointed and disillusioned with Blair. But that does not blind me to his achievements and special qualities.

  8. TOH: this site is so unbalenced now that it needs some reason from time to time.

    Then give us some, Howard, give us some.

    Instead, what we get is unsubstantiated panglossian opinion and yah-boo-sucks ripostes (“If anybody is lacking in self awareness it’s you”; ” A new low in childish humour i see”; “Peter Cairns and Somerjohn who also show the same obsessive tendancies”; “If anybody is overinflated it’s you”).

    These are not reasoned responses and you cannot expect your opinions to be accorded much respect unless you take the trouble to engage in reasoned discussion. If you choose not to respond to carefully-argued posts, arguing that you can’t be bothered or are too busy, you surely shouldn’t be too surprised when people take the mickey a bit.

    There are things I’d be interested in hearing from you. For instance, why have you (“I’m not a Conservative”) chosen this moment to throw in your lot with TM’s Tories? Which countries amongst our hoped-for new global markets do you expect to increase their purchases from us by more than their sales to us? Do you still see the USA as more culturally and socially aligned with us, and a more reliable partner, than our European neighbours?

    Give us reason and reasons, Howard.

  9. Alec,
    “The fact of the matter was that 1997 didn’t really change anything fundamental, because the fundamental views of the public had remained intact”

    Reminds me of one argument that the difference between Ted Heath and Margaret Thatcher was the public mood at the time they tried to confront union power.

    That Thatcher succeeded because the public believed union power was overblown, not because there was any difference in poilcy. You might be right that Brexit could herald a socialist revolution…but because the country wants this.

    Fraser,
    People continue to look at May from the wrong direction. Leaders usually get chosen because they have a band of supporters in the party. May was chosen because she had few supporters. She was chosen to carry out a job, brexit, as a compromise. Many would not have wanted this job either because they did not believe it was right at all, or because they understood it was a sure end to a political career, as we are seeing. Anyone who might have wanted to take it on would be a zealot and unacceptable to the opposing section of the party.

    May I think has agreed to be PM and do her best in a bad situation, bad both for the nation and the party. The only successful way out of this for the party is a successful brexit, and if such is possible then there is no political problem. It is absolutely plain that tories do not believe Brexit can be a success economically, because they all fear the political fallout.

    May’s task is to obtain a national consensus over Brexit. The referendum did not create a consenus. It created a voting block for leave which was slightly larger than the voting block for remain, and indeed this was reflected in the recent election result. That result showed there was little or no support for hard Brexit, which unfortunately is about the only outcome it is in the government’s power to deliver.

    The reasons May was chosen as PM remain the same. She might have apologised for the election result, but she succeeded in holding a second referendum on hard brexit by proxy, and got an answer. Not one she knows how to implement, but at least it defines the options available to the party. She seems to be putting that result into practice, as ‘no deal is better than bad deal’ seems to have been abandoned and they are tacking towards labour’s position.

    If a hard brexiteer becomes PM and tries to go that way, the result will be politicall disastrous. The party is not redy to do a u turn to remain. That would only leave another dead end job caretaker PM ending their career. Anyone going to want that job?

  10. @fraser

    Agree. Everything May does now will be seen within the prims of her bid to survive. Johnsons antics have humiliated her by exposing her utter lack of authority and the speech debacle is toxic because it chimes so fatally with that narrative. If the p45 had been handed to her at the 2016 conferance it would have had no impact and the story would have been “lack of security”.
    Apparently there are moves afoot amongst some mps to gather signetures.
    But the last thing the tories want right now is a leadership contest – whihc is likely to be ugly and bloody with no candidate available who isn’t likely to make the situation worse.
    But equally the last thing the tories need right now is to cling on to a humiliated, zombie prime minister who excudes hapless ineffectiveness.

  11. Reggieside,
    “Everything May does now will be seen within the prims of her bid to survive”
    No. Its about the party surviving, not May. She was cannon fodder from day 1.

  12. ENIGMA

    @”The fact she is ill, wore a bracelet of questionable choice”

    FFS !!!!

    What has her choice of bracelet got to do with ANYTHING?

    Is that your contribution to political debate here?

  13. @danny

    I mean in the eyes of the media. Its all about her (absence of ) authority, how far can boris go, her mishaps, what plots are going on amongst the backbenchers.
    Im slightly amazed she has carried on – maybe she will decide to get off the cross after this latest debacle.
    I mean – i dont think anyone would begrudge her if she came out of number 10 and said “f- this – i;ve had enough – im off” – in fact she should have said it half way through her speech. Would have gone up in my estimation if she had.

  14. @colin

    She wore a bracelet with picture of Frida Kahlo – a famous artist but also a life long revolutionary communist who had Leon Trotsky as her lover.

    (theres a twitter meme going around suggesting that the coughing fit was the ghost of Frida Kahlo strangling her to death for daring to use her image whilst going against everything she believed in)

    Its an embarrassing gaffe – presumably she had no idea who Frida Kahlo was and just thought it looked stylish. So its displays a level of ignorance whilst trying to look “sophisticated” .

    Its small potatoes – but it plays into the gauche/hapless narrative and we live in a world where being photographed whilst struggling to eat a bacon sandwich is seen as making you unsuitable to be a prime minister.

  15. Somerjohn

    “Then give us some, Howard, give us some.”

    I do most of the time I post, except perhaps when I’m being humorous. I joined the Tories so I will have a voice at the next Tory leadership election and to help the party keep Labour out at the next election.

  16. COLIN

    “Is that your contribution to political debate here?”

    I think you can see why I prefer listening to music and working our allotments at the moment. Really this site is a shadow of what it used to be. A leftwing anti-brexit talking shop basically with a few notable exceptions.

  17. “The letters were a bit wonky to begin with before they fell.”
    @Carfrew October 5th, 2017 at 12:00 am

    The scenery was obviously outsourced to the lowest bidder.

  18. Danny

    No deal still is better than a bad deal. That is the UK’s position according to Mrs May’s answer to a question on the subject after her Florence speech..

  19. REGGIESIDE

    @”presumably she had no idea who Frida Kahlo was ”

    I doubt that very much.

    And perhaps I was wrong-perhaps its got a lot to do with her politics.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/women/politics/matters-theresa-may-wore-frida-kahlo-bracelet-conference-speech/

    Although yesterday was yet another desperately embarrassing exposure of a very private person trying to project a public presence, I have a sneaking feeling that the very fact that she saw that through to the end-wearing THAT bracelet suggests she has more mileage in her than many ( including me) are predicting just now.

  20. Somerjohn

    “Do you still see the USA as more culturally and socially aligned with us, and a more reliable partner, than our European neighbours?”

    Yes, even more so.

  21. @COLIN
    “What has her choice of bracelet got to do with ANYTHING?”

    It ought to be irrelevant, true. But it is symbolic of a very accident prone PM. Of all the things wrong with her speech – (1) coughing (2) prankster (3) letters falling off (4) alleged possible plagiarism from the West Wing (according to sky news at least) (5) insignificant policy content (6) bracelet – she presumably had control of the last 2. To wear a bracelet featuring images of an artist who followed communism and was a lover of Trotsky does seem an unusual fashion accessory for a Conservative leader and PM.

    The biggest problem is actually the complete lack of anything significant to address the massive problems with housing. It would have been better to say nothing rather than to promise to build a miserly 5,000 more houses a year plus another £10bn that will just further help prop up the ridiculous level of house prices. She says she’s going to take ‘personal charge’ of sorting out housing and thats it? And whats been announced so far on student finance will change the minds of approximately zero students when it comes to who they support.

    The fact that she is still there as Tory leader highlights what a truly dire situation her party finds itself in.

    Right now, and despite all his problems, Johnson would actually be a better choice.

  22. Decidedly mixed economic data this week. The PMI data suggests that there is actual contraction underway in the construction sector, while manufacturing and services are still growing, but with some signs of weakening (services on a bit of a rebound after August though).

    What is worth noting is that an unusually large discrepancy has opened up between ONS data and the PMI surveys for both manufacturing and services, with the ONS statistics being decidedly more downbeat. Such divergences aren’t that unusual, but the scale and time extent of these ones is a little unusual.

    This morning’s data on new car registrations is pretty grim, with a 9.3% fall in September, usually seen as a barometer month. This comes on top of five previoous monthly falls and the weakness was spread across all sectors.

    Domestic spending on new vehicles is now struggling, and many commentators are specifically pointing to Brexit uncertainties as a key reason behind the falls in fleet and business orders.

  23. TOH

    Its certainly something of an endurance test sometimes !

    But there are contributors on the “other side” I still enjoy reading-usually the shorter contributions :-)

    Quantity doesn’t equate with quality often here these days.

  24. Also worth noting this – ”

    “SMMT chief Mike Hawes also warns that car manufacturers are putting off new investment until they know what’s happening with Brexit.

    Hawes says Britain’s auto industry enjoyed a “tremendous run” of investment, around £2.5bn per year for the last five years.

    But…. investment fell by a third in 2016, and is “down markedly again this year, Hawes says.

    He blames uncertainty over Britain’s exit from the European Union:

    “People are waiting to see what the future relationship with our biggest market, Europe, is going to be before making any additional investment.””

  25. ALEC
    @”Domestic spending on new vehicles is now struggling, ”

    I wonder if a little less heat in that market might not be a good thing?

    It is beginning to look a bit to reminiscent of a pre-2007 gig.

    https://www.theguardian.com/money/2017/sep/19/car-finance-debt-dealers-consumer-credit

  26. I wonder if we will have answers to a few questions quite soon. Miracle needed?

    http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-banks/bank-of-england-says-brexit-transition-deal-needed-by-christmas-idUKKBN1C92MR

    “Britain’s banks need a watertight Brexit transition deal by Christmas to avoid a potentially disorderly shift of people and operations to the European Union, a top Bank of England official said on Wednesday.

    BoE Deputy Governor Sam Woods said that while the British government wants a deal to bridge leaving the EU in March 2019 and the start of new trading terms, the EU’s position was still unclear and the clock was ticking.

    “If we get to Christmas and the negotiations have not reached any agreement on this topic, diminishing marginal returns will kick in,” Woods told the annual City Banquet in London’s “Square Mile” financial district.”

  27. @ TOH

    Re Brexit and negativity about Tories.

    If you visit sites like Mike Smithsons Political Betting, you will see many Tory supporters on there having a go at the Tories at the moment. And quite a few are anti Brexit. I was quite surprised, as they were very pro Tory previously. Even a former Tory constituency chairman where the MP is a staunch Brexiteer, is quite critical of the Tories at the moment.

    So UKPR is not unique from what i have seen. As i have said before, i would not be confident that Brexit was going to happen, unless the negotiations with the EU make a lot more progress and most MP’s can support it.

    On the weakness of the current Tory party i would raise two points. First, just look at the size of party membership compared to Labour. Second it is incredible that a left wing leader such as Corbyn could do so well against the Tories, unless the Tories were struggling. There appears little evidence that Theresa May possesses better leadership qualitiies than Corbyn. The recent polling with Corbyn ahead of May, is. Surprising to me. Labour are getting support from the ABC1 group and not C2,D,E. So it is not a question of unintelligent people falling for Labours unaffordable policy ideas.

  28. @alec

    Yes, services data was rather good. However there has been an undercurrent of declining faith in Markit’s predictions in the last few years – their direction of travel is usually good but detail not so good (forecasting is, of course, difficult but necessary).

    As Colin suggests vehicle debt is a serious issue in the UK and declining car sales might be very much a cloud and silver linings issue, and you might even differ on which is which!

  29. Sounds like the 1922 Committee may demand the For Sec’s head next week.

    Can’t remember a Minister so richly deserving the sack, to be honest.

  30. RHUCKLE

    @” First, just look at the size of party membership compared to Labour.”

    Iain Martin writes on this in today’s Times.

    He sees it as an indicator of potential Tory Party death unless they can respond with younger/larger membership/activists & social media punch & presence.

  31. CHRIS RILEY

    Agreed about Boris-plus whoever was in charge of proceedings at Conference-presumably McGloghlin

  32. @Colin

    Poor McLoughlin would be a good – even excellent – Party Chair under normal circumstances. These are not normal circumstances.

    Bear in mind his predecessors were Lord Feldman and Grant Shapps. I am not sure that getting rid of him and replacing him with someone like Shapps would really to be the advantage of the Party.

  33. @DANNY

    leader are often chosen because they have support. Indeed May had support over everyone else because she was seen as the unifier of the bunch. Everyone else was was not seen in that light. They all screwed up and showed a lack of tactical nouce. it was obvious she would win. The only issue was Brexit everything else was considered fine. if it was not fine you would have had a set of policy about the JAMs. we did not get any policies about the JAMs we got new word a new slogan and all was good in the Tory world

    May was chosen because the Tories felt she had the best chance of winning.

    The day of the general election before 10pm. If you asked Tory as to the what they believed, they would have said that she was the best leader.

    She won 42.4% of the vote, her problem was that many believe that at the margins the thing that swung that 42.4% of the vote was brexit. I am not sure how much was brexit let say 5%. her problem is that after brexit why are you voting Tory? That is the problem that the tories have failed to answer satisfactorily and that is why I think they feel under pressure. If they have policies which make sense and deal with the issues that they need to get voters on their side then I reckon things would be fine but they do not at this moment.

    building 5000 council houses per year does not really do it when we need 250K houses per year just to replace the current stock of houses every 200 years as an example. it is why they talk aboutt 25K houses over 5 years because it sounds better to an illiterate/ innumerate audience and an unthinking media.

    What worries me is that we have concentrated on the most spectacular part of the Tory party’s problem a view that there is infighting over the leadership and infighting over the details of brexit. That we have a complete policy vacuum is not of interest to the media since it is not sexy, rather like when Labour party shadow cabinet members were resigning on air. The media problem is now it does not do detail. It clearly does not do experts and that is why I believe it misses the real problem. We all were told that Tories are going to win 100 seat majority.

    The point is the media live in the moment, we will soon be on to the next thing we have forgotten what was promised. We have not even compared what Labour, liberals Dems and Tories are offering us in terms of proposals at the conferences because no one can even remember the Labour conference at this point.

    People are arguing about brexit and indeed are seeing the our politics basically as brexit. meanwhile the new counter point is to see Corbyn as third world leader of some sort of socialist state (place Zimbabwe/Cuba/Venezuela or your favour bogey country here)

    Danny I think you are missing the fact in every poll Labour voters are talking about housing education and cost of living as primary issues, Tories are talking brexit and Immigration as main issues

    That is the massive division. Once you remove brexit then the solutions becomes much less clear for Tories. May speech makes the point that they haven’t given people the answers

  34. TOH,

    “Really this site is a shadow of what it used to be!”

    True,

    Gone are the days when the Tories had more posters than Labour and long gone the days when people took you even half seriously.

    I am sure you lament that.

    It has ever been the case.

    The balance of contributions rises and falls with Party fortunes and no doubt in the fullness of time it will switch again.

    Not to long ago when the consensus was that Corbyn was a numpty, the Tories couldn’t lose and Brexit was a painless victory you couldn’t move for Tory supporting posters and Labour supporters were few and far between.

    Post the election where Corbyn seems to have defied his critics and be on something of a role, the Tories had a set back, seem divided and with the post A50 negotiations stalled, Labour posters have returned …even Slab ones and Tories here have diminished in numbers.

    We also see the same personalised behaviour of those seemly in the ascendancy tending to gloat and those in decline defensive and shoot ing the messenger….

    Whats wrong isn’t that we are doing badly or losing the debate it’s that the wrong sorts of people are on here posting the wrong kind of posts.

    Or

    It’s typical of these people that when I post an unsubstantiated claim, lots of them not only expect me to back it up with facts but they then post long detailed critiques which they have the audacity to expect me to read.

    Worse still they have the temerity to laugh at me when I say I am too busy or have better things to do.

    Why they are just rude and have no respect, let alone deference, to their elders and betters like me.

    Peter.

  35. party size

    Not sure apart from boots on ground at election times mass membership is as important as it was. example:Macron.

  36. @ S Thomas

    If the purpose of political parties is to get elected then surely boots on the ground at elections is key. If so it is short sighted to expect success at an election if party membership is not kept at a sustainable level between elections

  37. colin

    “But there are contributors on the “other side” I still enjoy reading-usually the shorter contributions :-)”

    Ta.

  38. PTRP

    @”building 5000 council houses per year does not really do it when we need 250K houses per year”

    But when you add it to the £7bn already committed for “affordable housing” -thats 112,500 units over the parliament-plus those delivered by the Private Sector presumably.

  39. PAUL CROFT

    :-)

  40. its also the quality of the boots.

    Labours mass membership is youngish, enthused, energetic and well skilled at both social media and community activism. They will not just be envelope stuffing and doing old style canvassing – they will dominating social media and having face to face conversations aiming to win people over.
    Put that together and thats a major asset in a time where the reach and effectiveness of conventional media – especially the tory dominated print media – is in decline.
    There is no way the tories can compete with that. Ive seen enthusiasm for corbyn grow from activists to larger and larger groups of voters over two years. That process will pick up again once we are in an election campaign.
    The tories can throw money at media campaigns and buying up social media ads – but that will only get them so far. Their own boots on the ground are older, less active, less enthused, much smaller in number and are very much just envelope stuffers and old style canvasers.

    Labour has been reborn as a grassroots campaigning organisation – but that is dependant on it having a radical trans formative agenda that motivates the membership. The tories do not have that – unless they go for the full uber-brexit red in tooth and claw – but I think this would have limited appeal to anyone outside a farily narrow, UKIPy demographic.

    To prosper, The tories need to reinvent themselves as a party of free market/social liberalism – and lose the nationalistic brexit stuff. Thats will take a generation to achieve.

  41. Devolution. Other parties accept Blair’s adoption of that too now of course, because not trivially reversible, though Independence might go beyond it.

  42. @Colin

    “Quantity doesn’t equate with quality often here these days.”

    —–

    It’s got more value in it if you’re prepared to dig into it a little. Quite often some of the rambling is people flying kites or trying to get their head around something, and their position coalesces later. It’s like showing your working in a maths exam. You get to see how people develop their thinking. Not to everyone’s taste but it does have its uses. Personally I find it fascinating at times.

  43. The TOH problem

    Quite honestly there’s not much point in arguing with someone who calls his political opponents “quislings who want to live in a vassal state”.

    Ignoral is the only option.

  44. Interesting data :-

    file:///C:/Users/User/Downloads/uk_2017_general_election_examined_-_final.pdf

  45. @Paul Croft

    “That is very succinctly put. When I wrote about people “re-writing history” that is the very issue I was trying to address.”

    ———

    It’s wrong though, and polling shows it. Been through it many times but the liberals can’t engage with it. For example, nationalisation has polled well for aeons. It’s just that the voters weren’t offered it. Corbyn comes along and the liberals STILL maintain people didn’t want it. It took the election to show that given the opportunity more people would take it than the liberals thought.

  46. @Paul

    The liberals in the party ALSO ignore the fact that a lot of support for the more left wing policies was split because of SDP and the LDs, especially when LDs moved leftwards. So the public hadn’t shifted, but the electoral scenario had.

    This is why the party gave liberalism a bit of a go, to get elected, but they didn’t bank on just how enthusiastically liberal Blair’s gang would turn out to be!

    The Tories recently went through something similar and have similarly been ejecting the liberals like Osborne who is fighting back of course.

  47. Trad Labour also didn’t realise till after that hey hadn’t really needed to let the overall in after all. The polling wasn’t a mirage.

  48. Hasn’t really needed to let the liberals in

  49. Brilliant piece of satire at 10.58 Peter Cairns (SNP).

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