Yesterday’s Observer had a new YouGov poll of London, commissioned by Queen Mary University London. Full tables for the poll are here.

Labour performed very strongly in London at the general election this year. There was six point swing to Labour compared to a two pooint swing in Britain as a whole, presumably related to London being younger and more pro-European than the rest of England. The first post-election poll of London shows Labour holding on to that dominant position – topline figures with changes since the general election are CON 30%(-3), LAB 55%(nc), LDEM 8%(-1).

Sadiq Khan also continues to enjoy strong support. 58% of Londoners think he is doing well as mayor, and asked a comparative question he rates more positively than either of his predecessors. 58% think Khan is doing a good good, compared to 47% who thought Ken Livingstone did and 46% who think Boris Johnson did.

The poll also asked about TfL declining Uber’s application for a licence renewal. When this was first announced there was a very negative reaction on social media… but of course, that over-represents exactly the sort of people who regularly use Uber. The poll finds that people who regularly use Uber do indeed think it was the wrong decision (by 63% to 27%)… but the majority of Londoners use Uber rarely or never and they approve of the decision. Overall 43% of people think it was right to take away Uber’s licence, 31% think it was wrong. Even among those regular Uber users there’s no obvious sign of a backlash against Khan or Labour. 66% of them still say Khan is doing a good job, 63% say they would vote Labour in an election tomorrow. Personally I’d be extremely surprised if the whole thing didn’t end up with a compromise between TfL and Uber allowing them to renew their licence, but for the moment the polling suggests that the public back Sadiq Khan on the issue.


629 Responses to “YouGov/QMUL poll of London”

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  1. Interesting, somewhat subjective, perhaps, article on how prepared is the UK for Brexit. Answer = 9%.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/10/05/how-ready-is-the-uk-for-brexit-9/

  2. S Thomas

    “I would pre-referendum have settled for a compromise. if cameron could have negotiated us out of the commitment to ever closer union …”

    He did exactly that, as part of the deal reached in Feb 2016, which was then put to a referendum on 23/6/16. That agreement included:

    ‘The amending of EU treaties to state explicitly that references to the requirement to seek ever-closer union “do not apply to the United Kingdom”, meaning Britain “can never be forced into political integration”

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-35616768

  3. Anyone else struggling to get posts on tonight?

  4. Yougov also did a survey, their panel seemed to be less convinced that the TM speech was a roaring success

    https://yougov.co.uk/opi/surveys/results#/survey/07a10c41-a9bc-11e7-9df1-dfcb2e853687/question/2c6d0f45-a9bc-11e7-a7db-8553e85337f4/age

    Well 15%
    Badly 49%

    But the same trend, the older you are, the more you thought it was a very good speech and vice versa.

    65+
    Well 30%
    Badly 37%

    18-24
    Well 5%
    Badly 51%

  5. S Thomas

    Actually I think placing the requirement the the EU is content that EU citizens aren’t going to get shafted by the hostile environment has led to Florence and the hint that things might be made less unpleasant for me in the future.

    So I’m really happy the EU dug its heels in over this, even if it means the initial trade deal isn’t as good as it might have been due to our playing silly bugg… er engaging in deliberate ambiguity for the first 6 months of the talks.

    There is a certain amount of man hours to complete all the issues, it doesn’t seem to me that the ordering of these is particularly important if all the the time was used productively. Structured this way, the time allocated to playing silly buggers comes off our trade deal negotiation time.

    In short yes, I think its much much better that leaving the policy of “hostile environment” in play with the hope to improve it in the dying seconds! Compared to the risk the the initial trade deal won’t be quite as extensive as we might wish, I think that is more important.

    It’s far less important to me whether Britain maintains its financial services passporting rights or if the Sunderland plant starts dropping shifts.

  6. Times is running a story alleging that Grant Shapps (or whatever he is calling himself today) is behind the plot to oust May.

    (Is Shapps mates with George Osbourne?)

  7. James E

    you do not though deal with the eCJ point.

    In addition do you not think it odd that you are seemingly given an opt out from being forced to intergrate. did that mean that those who did not have such could be forced to integrate. Nothing is straight forward with the EU. Treaty change to bring this about would need all 27 members and no -one wanted to have a treaty change referendum therefore the offer remained exactly that. An offer .Hanging there without legal effect. So it was an offer that sometime in the future if all agree the treaty change we will agree that you cannot be forced to intergrate with us. Gee thanks!

  8. Grant Shafts perhaps

  9. Never mind what Grant Shapps calls himself these days. When did George Osborne change his name?

  10. @S THOMAS

    The issue of integration of all types was largely symbolic as anyone in the Armed forces will tell you The Czech, Romanian and Dutch have units integrated into the German Army already. it does not need the EU to do integration much of the integration happens for practical reasons.

    We will at some point have some form of common tax policy, control of capital policy because at some point these things will make sense we already are doing such thing with banking BASEL I/II for example.

    On the issue of fishing, I am always concerned at the point that most of the problems with UK quotas have been the fact that unlike other countries the UK tried to make money out of the quotas and basically allowed the quotas to put to the highest bidder. It was a stupid policy which was detrimental to the industry. As with many of the issue of conservation of stocks nobody likes the fact that there are limits but we have them to preserve the long term life of the fish species under threat. Fishermen complain that it is not effective because they pretty much try and maximise their catch and no I don’t blame them but I keep saying to myself there small fishing boats now do not cut it, in the same way that small farms just don’t cut it now economically. The Europeans have better organised fleets to cope with this.

    In the end we are seeing regionalisation due to a lack of size of many countries. it allows people to bid on equal terms with regard their regional markets compared to others. Again I see this as pure practicality and indeed a political. The UK is in an awkward position in some areas it may make sense to go it alone but in other it just does not we have chosen to be outside looking in which is a pity.

    We will find out if it make sense soon enough.

  11. @S THOMAS

    Like you I think May is the only leader the tories have that can bring balance to the brexit argument. Let us be fair I would have thought you would have had a much more divisive party if it was not for her. it is the reason that I believe that she will stay.

    her position is dependent on the MPs and most do not want to lose their seats and as such I believe they will hang on the her for dear life. The real issue is that what you have is two sets of sniping. One set are sniping from the position of competence/policy the other are sniping because of brexit.

    The reality is that she has softened on policy adopting Miliband lite and she has to come to terms with getting the EU to help her get a good Brexit deal

  12. CARFREW
    Not so sure about the union stuff though!
    It’s not , or not primarily, union stuff but the international labour market, and specifically the EU labour market stuff, which has transformed the UK economy and contributed to UK demographic change in the past decade, and in doing so has been a major – or the major factor – in the movement of the middle ground in the UK economy and thus in UK politics. The changes in the UK union structure during or preceding that process are only part of the institutional framework within which that major change has taken place, together with a consolidation of the Single Market and of the – pro tem – domination of the financial system by the City.
    Reactions against it which underpin this movement in the centre ground include Brexit, and a Tory political philosophy which would like to retain the present inequality and inadequacy of the social wage in the UK labour market – including extreme differentials in income, lack of affordable housing and rentism.
    Movements for it include. the movement of the active UK labour force in support of Remain and of the Labour agenda,and that of the mainstream economic system of rhe UK and international investment and trading market, which in supporting the Social Chapter have significantly changed western capitalism..

  13. I don’t mean underpin, but underly, but was trying to avoid the effing automod which its correct spelling would trigger.

  14. Another Brexit side effect- cuts in defence equipment due to drop in value of Pounds Sterling, making it more expensive to buy foreign made items.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-41511790

    During the Brexit referendum campaign, i don’t think there was any proper analysis of the impact of leaving the EU, on Government department spending. It is not just the changes in currency values, but in the future, if there are trade issues including tariffs or restrictions imposed, then it could severely impact the UK’s ability to equip itself.

    I have a feeling that most leave supporters will find it unacceptable that Government appear not to have contingency measures in place, to ensure that any Brexit process has as little effect on important aspects such as Defence as possible.

  15. R Huckle: Vince Cable will be thanking Nick Clegg ( not).

    Clegg says join Labour or Tories to try to stop Brexit from within those parties.

    Looks to me like Cable _will_ be thanking Clegg, or even that the 2 of them may have hatched up the scheme together. If there is one thing the LDs need, it is distance from the coalition years. Clegg is definitely helping here.

  16. @AW – not sure if there is a problem here, but I’ve had difficulties posting for the last 24 hours or so. Posts get lost and never reappear. Don’t know if others are suffering this also, but with only 10 posts overnight, I think something might be amiss?

  17. It’s a new form of auto mod. Only disinterested non-partisan posters like me allowed through.

  18. So, day three of the national vigil watching as Little Nell clings to life. Steve Bell nails it perfectly this morning in the graun.

    It won’t be the election result, the speeches and interviews where nothing is said and no question gets answered, nor the EU and half of the active electorate shrugging their shoulders wondering how she’s going to fix brexit that will bring her down. It will be the folk memory of two letters falling off the wall behind her, requiring only a placard with a letter or two missing, or a mischievous typo to scream over and over that the end has come.

  19. Regarding Theresa May continuing as PM/Tory party leader. I don’t think she will resign, as she has been shown to be quite stubborn. She will make those who want her out, follow the Tory parties rules on triggering a leadership contest. Whether she then takes part in the contest, i am not sure.

    The problem the Tories have is that there is no strong candidate on the Tory benches in the HoC that could unite the party behind a definite position on Brexit. Labour are not in the hot seat at the moment, so Corbyn has the luxury of not facing too much pressure from his backbenchers who are mostly against Brexit. As we move forward with the Brexit negotiations, whoever is in the hot seat of being PM is going to find it impossible. The sheer complexity of the process and what it effects should not be underestimated.

    Personally, i think it is inevitable that there will be a second EU referendum, based on much more information. The options will be a long term transition out of the EU to protect the UK economy or to remain in the EU. There will not be any cliff edge leaving the EU on WTO terms.

  20. I think we are now watching the slow political death of Theresa May. Cant see her lasting beyond Christmas. All the media want to talk about is plots.Her critics within the party will get more vocal, every gaffe and mishap, a bad opinion poll, every cabinet bust up will be met with calls for her to step down.

    This kind of thing generates its own momentum. A lot of MPs who were prepared to let her carry will just want an end to the situation as its paralysing government.

    Any VI polls out soon? Not had one for weeks

  21. Whilst i agreed with Alec’s post yesterday that the UK economic news has been very mixed this week it is interesting that house prices are accelerating again, having slowed earlier in the year. (Halifax House Price Index).

  22. May is currently being destabilised by her own MPs. Brexit is plainly heading away from Hard Brexit towards either soft or remain, and those who do not like this feel they have nothing to lose by attacking her. If the result is chaos, breakdown of talks because there is no Uk government to negotiate at all, then they reckon they are more likely to get a hard Brexit by default.

    May got the job because she was the best candidate available, and that has not changed. I saw ‘this week’ debating precisely this conundrum, with a split of views whether the issue which dominates will be an imperative to replace her with someone better, or a recognition that there is no one better. Her problem is not really anything about her personally, but that the party itself is split and therefore cannot choose a leader who would have the support of the party.

    For their part, the EU is fast losing interest in Brexit and made its own position plain years ago. There is a range of available options, Britain has to choose one. Thats it. No one cares if Britain just walks away. Its impossible even to negotiate a special deal, because there is no one with authority in the UK to negotiate. The EU does not believe it would be negatively impacted by the Uk walking away. It has no reason to make a special deal. It just wants a decision.

    The british government, of course, just wants endless delay because it cannot make a decision.

  23. @TOH – house prices are a bit more difficult to use to understand the overall economy though.

    New mortgage approvals – a leading indicator of future trends – fell by 2.7%, suggesting demand is sliding. Also, and critically, for the price calculation, new sales instructions are still falling (have done for 18 months) with stocks of properties for sale close to their all time low.

    This tends to suggest that improvements in sales prices have more to do with limited availability of homes on the market.

  24. reggieside: This kind of thing generates its own momentum. A lot of MPs who were prepared to let her carry will just want an end to the situation as its paralysing government.

    I would agree about the momentum of the situation, but the paralysis in government is good at the moment. I doubt a change of leader is going to resolve any of the dispute at base over what Brexit really should mean – I doubt that this is a question which a leader can resolve within the Tory party, it is probably a matter of waiting until something can be resolved by taking a question to the country or rolling over and telling Labour to fix it.

    If the letters trigger a no confidence vote, we might find she wins it, though I doubt she would win Corbyn style in the country.

  25. @Danny

    Yep – brexit is stuck until the government sorts its act out. Its stuck. And i cant see a change of leader solving that – they will have exactly the same problems as May is facing.
    With Thatcher the problem was her – her growing erraticness and megalomania (and alcoholism?) and insistence on sticking to toxic policies like the poll tax and the baggage of the ten years of her rule.
    By changing her they were able to get away with a partial reset via John Major.
    Ditching May will achieve none of that – as the problem is brexit – and thats not going away. It would take a politician of extraordinary skill and a popular touch to unite the party and deliver some sort of workable brexit deal – but they have no-one of that calibre.

    But May has to go to stop the situation getting worse and give them one more throw of the brexit negotiating dice – albeit one they know is doomed.
    I can see this ending up with tory mps resigning “for the good of the country” to force a general election and labour being passed the poisoned dogs dinner that the our politicians are benig forced to eat up.

  26. I intended:

    If the letters trigger a no confidence vote, we might find she wins it, though I doubt she would win Corbyn style with the party in the country.

  27. New thread

  28. Mrs May is not the one to hold the balance in a divided Cabinet. Rather she is a prisoner of that division. The Brexiters opposing a soft Brexit have political logic to advance. It makes no sense to leave the EU in order to mimic it from the outside and meet its obligations without any of the privileges of membership. On the other hand, the Treasury and the other members of the Cabinet see clearly enough the potential for political chaos and economic harm of leaving in a chaotic fashion. If May chooses one side the other is likely to move against her. For that reason she is likely to stay in office while the EU negotiations drift towards no resolution.

    The effects of the division are starting to show. Not just physically on Mrs May. It looks as if she keeps shifting position. In the Florence speech she seemed to say she accepted a transition period during which EU regulations would apply. During that speech she later qualified that position to say that some new system might be introduced during the transition period. Meanwhile, nothing concrete can emerge from phase one of the talks simply because the Cabinet has no settled position on where it wants to be. Literally, it cannot negotiate.

  29. Mrs May is not the one to hold the balance in a divided Cabinet. Rather she is a prisoner of that division. The Brexiters opposing a soft Brexit have political logic to advance. It makes no sense to leave the EU in order to mimic it from the outside and meet its obligations without any of the privileges of membership. On the other hand, the Treasury and the other members of the Cabinet see clearly enough the potential for political chaos and economic harm of leaving in a chaotic fashion. If May chooses one side the other is likely to move against her. For that reason she is likely to stay in office while the EU negotiations drift towards no resolution.

    The effects of the division are starting to show. Not just physically on Mrs May. She started her conference speech with confidence and no trace of a cold and ended it lacking confidence and coughing.

    It looks as if she keeps shifting position. In the Florence speech she seemed to say she accepted a transition period during which EU regulations would apply. During that speech she later qualified that position to say that some new system might be introduced during the transition period. Meanwhile, nothing concrete can emerge from phase one of the talks simply because the Cabinet has no settled position on where it wants to be. Literally, it cannot negotiate.

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