There were two new voting intention polls yesterday, plus ICM’s fortnightly poll this morning. Topline figures are

ICM/Guardian (22nd-24th): CON 40%(-2), LAB 42%(nc), LDEM 8%(+1)
Survation/Mail on Sunday (22nd): CON 38%(nc), LAB 42%(-1), LDEM 8%(+1) (tabs)
Opinium (19th-22nd): CON 42%(+1), LAB 40%(-1), LDEM 6%(+1) (tabs)

Changes are from a fortnight ago for ICM, last week for Opinium and the start of September for Survation.

One Conservative lead, two Labour leads and no consistent trend in either direction. Survation and ICM were both conducted after Theresa May’s Florence speech, so give us the first chance to gauge reactions to it. Survation asked about whether people supported or opposed paying £20bn to the EU during a transition period when Britain had access to the single market – 34% of people said they would support it, 47% said they would be opposed. ICM asked a similar question, but found 41% of people supported the idea and 31% were opposed – the ICM tables aren’t available yet, so I don’t know what the particularl wording was and whether it might explain the difference.


665 Responses to “Latest voting intentions from ICM, Survation and Opinium”

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  1. “I don’t always agree with MoD’s decisions, particularly when they are based on the needs/affordability of a single Service rather than a pure Joint approach, but I can understand why they made them.”

    I should make it clear that I thought that taking the Harriers out of service was a particularly bad decision as they could have taken off from the carriers already under construction in 2010 when the decision was made. The in-service date of the F-35B always seemed optimistic to me.

  2. Alec

    I think we have been arguing at cross purposes for a long time now. It has always been the mechanism (final arbiter) which is the red line for both myself and the Government, it cannot be the ECJ, IMO. As it happens I think the government has moved too far in some of it’s discussions with the the EU on peoples rights, but I am relaxed about that at the moment because the Governments position unlike the EU’s is that nothing is settled until the final deal is settled. If there is no deal then I expect the UK Govenment will make it’s own arrangements in all respects of our post leaving relationship.

    As you know, unlike yourself I do not expect a deal. If the Government backs down on the ECJ as final arbiter, or on the mantra that nothing is settled until the final deal is agreed, then I will no longer support the Governments position and I know a lot of others who won’t either.

  3. Alec

    “If you want to fall for the spin, that is your prerogative. I don’t.”

    I think I have dealt with that comment in my last post to you. I have not changed my views.

  4. ToH

    You need a Hants collapse but it looks like their seventh wicket partnership will seen them survive. It’s not so bad. We will give your boys a warm welcome to Wales next season.

  5. @trevorwarne

    The ECHR is a convention but there is also the European Court of Human Rights which the UK would withdraw from as well.

    Incidentally what “crimnals rights” do you want to repeal?

  6. @ NICKP – it’s commonly known as “cake and eat it”. socialism is awesome until you find it is you who has to pay for it. something that I did find shocking was how little money peeps were prepared to pay EU for divorce. once you put numbers on it then it focuses attention.

    now if we we’re Norway then fair enough, for fairly unique reasons they have an excellent functional socialist society.

    about to write a bit more on this

  7. @ HIRETON – see my post earlier about #28 in the EU/UK checklist for citizens rights and WB’s detailed reply

  8. TW, Norway is not a socialist society, but you carry on.

    ” Erna Solberg became prime minister, the second female prime minister after Brundtland and the first conservative prime minister since Syse. Solberg said her win was “a historic election victory for the right-wing parties”.”

    Norway have had left leaning governments since 1990, true. But to describe Norway as socialist is not accurate.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Norway#Politics_and_government

  9. @TOH – it is funny how the subtle changes creep in.

    On October 19th, 2016 at 9:17 am you said –

    “For me the EU referendum was about three things:-
    1. Regaining our sovereignty which includes having control of our borders, and our Courts no longer subject to the ECJ……”

    Now, the phrase ‘final arbiter’ has crept in. Being subject to the ECJ is OK, so long as the UK courts are the final arbiter.

    Back then, I pointed out many times that we would still be subject to ECJ case law, and you scoffed, but now Davis and May agree. Things do move on.

    Talking of moving on, new thread.

  10. @ MARKW – I’ve discussed this with RACHEL before. It’s a relative measure. In Norway their “right” would be “left” on a LAB-CON dimension. Similarly in US their “left” would be “right” on a CON-LAB description. The names don’t fool me – one party used to be called national socialist I seem to remember but was hardly socialist as it turned out!

    Depending on your definition of Socialism I’ll stand by my view that Norway is a successful socialist country (probably the only one). They have high tax (even though they don’t need it), high state spending (because they have oodles of both natural and financial resources plus a creative economy). Some cultural aspects as well.

    Norway have moved slightly to the right recently – similar issues to most of the richer nations in Europe and the West.

    It’s all relative and subjective (e.g. DC moved UK slightly to the right in 2010, LAB today are not as far-left as LAB under Foot, etc.)

    Has Corbyn moved the centre, mainstream, whatever he called it? That is both a relative and a subjective question but the chart and info attached will show you peeps think Corbyn has moved the party a long way to the left.

    IMHO Brexit has given him a vote and VI boost from Remainers who aren’t really au fait with Corbynism but we’ll need to wait until after Mar’19 and the next GE to find out.

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2016/08/19/which-leaders-have-most-successfully-shifted-publi/

    I would have thought that poll had been updated but can’t find anything since Aug’16. Hopefully an update soon.

  11. The Other Howard,
    ” If the Government backs down on the ECJ as final arbiter, or on the mantra that nothing is settled until the final deal is agreed, then I will no longer support the Governments position and I know a lot of others who won’t either.”

    This is, of course, why they would not have made it clear. Though for political balance, labour has similar issues.

    The election just held was to judge the national support for the hard brexit position outlined and presented to the electorate. Presumably because they know they will lose support whatever they do, just from different directions.

    I am inclined to agee with Leavers who argue that a special deal for the Uk is impossible for this or that, or indeed many reasons. But whereas they feel this forces an immediate departure with no deal, others of a remain persuasion feel instead it just underlines the impracticality of Brexit and why it will have to be abandoned, because it is impossible to carry through.

    The german position on the EU appears to be that the EU merely exercises authority delefated to it by the German state. I have always felt this is precisely the same situation in the Uk, the EU being in no different position legally speaking to my local county council when it sends out jobsworths to argue my bin is too full or contains the wrong kind of waste.

  12. The big question seems to be, will more Tories desert them over the Brexit deal/not deal than Labour voters desert them for not either leaving or staying.

    I think all the non-Brexit chips are shifting to Lab – but is that Tory 40% going to dwindle?

  13. @Roger Mexico – May 42.4% vs Merkel 33% Perceived Strength vs Actual Strength

    I think you’ve summed up the issues pretty well. Essentially the German’s have Hobson’s Choice with the CDU. However, that doesn’t mean she will be able to get her policies through the Bundestag. And even trying to reconcile the so-called Jamaica Coalition makes a probable legislative agenda look like it could fit on a postcard! (Maybe not such a bad thing!)

    Possibles:

    1) Jamaica Coalition
    2) CDU-FDP (with SDP support on Confidence Issues)
    3) New Election

    The first one has the distinct possibility of falling apart down the road and the 2nd one can only survive until the SDP see a political advantage – so I would be surprised if this Bundestag goes its full term.

    @Danny “Perhaps because Merkel got her 33% Under proportional representation rather than in a two horse race?”

    But that strengthens May compared to Merkel in actual strength terms. The Tories have over 49% of the seats in the HoC.

  14. @LEFTIELIBERAL

    Harriers were on their last legs they spent more time in repairs than they did on the flight line and the airframes had already gone beyond their requisite flight hours. What surprised me was that they did not sell them to the US earlier since they were used for parts. it was not a good or bad decision it really was the only decision they could make.

  15. @MARKW

    it is funny that what people call socialist is something that is seen from perspective. Medicare in the US is not seen as socialist but medicare for all is. Now that to me is rather screwed up.

    The point is from any perspective the Norwegian political system and it consensus is to the left of the UK consensus so even when a ‘right’ wing government comes in it seem rather mild to that of say JRM.

    In the same way Obama as a redistributive President wanted to get consensus so he used a heritage foundation /Bob Dole Medical policy as something that the he thought the GOP would go for. However partisan politics made that difficult.

    New Labour used the negative income tax approach of Milton Friedman as a market correction mechanism

    So it is hard to know what is seen as left or right wing as left and right attempt to avoid consensus

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