There were two new voting intention polls yesterday, plus ICM’s fortnightly poll this morning. Topline figures are

ICM/Guardian (22nd-24th): CON 40%(-2), LAB 42%(nc), LDEM 8%(+1)
Survation/Mail on Sunday (22nd): CON 38%(nc), LAB 42%(-1), LDEM 8%(+1) (tabs)
Opinium (19th-22nd): CON 42%(+1), LAB 40%(-1), LDEM 6%(+1) (tabs)

Changes are from a fortnight ago for ICM, last week for Opinium and the start of September for Survation.

One Conservative lead, two Labour leads and no consistent trend in either direction. Survation and ICM were both conducted after Theresa May’s Florence speech, so give us the first chance to gauge reactions to it. Survation asked about whether people supported or opposed paying £20bn to the EU during a transition period when Britain had access to the single market – 34% of people said they would support it, 47% said they would be opposed. ICM asked a similar question, but found 41% of people supported the idea and 31% were opposed – the ICM tables aren’t available yet, so I don’t know what the particularl wording was and whether it might explain the difference.


665 Responses to “Latest voting intentions from ICM, Survation and Opinium”

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  1. ICM tabs are out, the Brexit stuff seems to start from p10 onwards. I’ll be comparing the info to Survation as AW suggested at the lead to this thread

    https://www.icmunlimited.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/09/2017_sept2_guardian_poll.pdf

  2. S Thomas, paul Croft,
    ““having heard the jezza rant”

    Or as some us – not particularly strong supporters of Corbyn – might put it: a fairly mildly delivered speech.”

    Thinking about it, reminded me of Farage at his best. Nothing like a rabble rousing cause.

  3. Survation: “willing to pay 20 billion euros to the European Union during the post-Brexit transition period”

    47% oppose, 34% support

    ICM: “pay the UK’s ‘fair share’ into the EU’s budget for two years in return for two year’s access to the EU single market.”

    31% support, 41% oppose

    The important difference is in the vague “fair share” versus the specific 20bn. I wonder which one the press will focus on when it comes down to a deal?

    Also, Survation are current holders of pin the tail on the donkey so let’s stick with them.

    Thoughts on success of a 2nd ref (in the parallel universe where that is going to happen)?

    If it comes to a bad deal or no deal, no deal looking good with the peeps :)

  4. We seem to have gone from ‘trade deals’ to ‘trade war’s’ that didn’t take long

  5. Oldnat: English is one of the two national languages in Malta (and the climate is warmer!)

    Well, if we’re quibbling, Maltese is the only National language in Cyprus, while English is an additional Official language (if Wiki is to be trusted).

    Peter Cairns What happened to Malta and Cyprus……it’s pretty much the language of commerce in both

    Well, the only official languages in Cyprus are Greek and Turkish, and I’ve found English understood only patchily there.

    I did consider including a bit pf pre-emptive quibble avoidance by mentioning these in my post, but I always aim for brevity and succinctness. But mention of Cyprus does prompt the thought that it is a model for an island shared between EU and a non-EU polities, divided by religion/ethnicity. Perhaps there are some lessons to be learnt? A UN peacekeeping force, for instance?

    And mention of Gibraltar prompts aanother thought: why is there so little apparent concern over the impact of a hard border there?

  6. Somerjohn

    “Well, if we’re quibbling, Maltese is the only National language in Cyprus, while English is an additional Official language (if Wiki is to be trusted).”

    If we are trusting Wiki, then Malta is an exact parallel with Ireland!

    Irish is given recognition by the Constitution of Ireland as the national and first official language of the Republic of Ireland (English is the other official language).

    (and the Maltese climate is still warmer!)

  7. Turk

    You do realise they are more spurs supporters in momentum than Arsenal ones. Red shirts might be a bit far. Actually saw a vid today of momentum members gently ribbing JC for his support of Arsenal, it was all good natured but brought home just how down to earth and authentic JC is

  8. Alec

    “As ever though, the quote used is highly selective.”

    Why would I bore others with the full quotation when the meaning is quite clear from what I posted and unchanged by the full version?

  9. @ PRINCESS RACHEL – it was always a war, we just never noticed as we’ve been sat on the subs bench for the last 25yrs (maybe 40)

    Great conference. Full respect to Corbyn and momentum. Avoided the Brexit bullet, united the party and got what he came for on the rule changes.

    What’s your thoughts on Rupa Huq as future leader? Quite a long shot but I found her very impressive.

  10. @Princess R – “We seem to have gone from ‘trade deals’ to ‘trade war’s’ that didn’t take long”

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r3BO6GP9NMY

  11. “Why would I bore others with the full quotation when the meaning is quite clear from what I posted and unchanged by the full version?”

    There’s a first time for everything, I susppose.

  12. john Pilgrim,
    I agree- with whoever- that the political prize would go to whoever can reunite leave and remain voters. The tories do not seem to be doing very well so far.

    Whether Corbyn could manage the trick I don’t know, but the principle of a ‘transitional arrangement’ seems to have been accepted by british politicians (perhaps not by the EU). The divide now seems likely to be what happens when we get to ‘no deal’ except on EU terms. Accepting this would ruin the tories, but rejecting it would do so also. Corbyn might be able to follow the line set out in his manifesto and reiterated now, that his priority is to safeguard the economy and so he would accept an EU deal. It seems likely the big majority of his recent voters would accept this.

    So then all he needs to do is persuade a few more that ‘no deal’ is unacceptable. I dont think that will, in the end, be hard, so right now he appears to have a winning hand. (ironic if a labour party wins in parliament because it controls the house of lords)

    The only way to reunite the two camps is to leave without leaving.

  13. @Alec
    I agree that TM has signalled that she wants a deal/ Do you think we will get a ‘deal’ (as opposed to one of the dishes on the set menu) or that she will be able to sell it politically if she dos?

  14. @ ALEC – If you want to stop Brexit then you need to speak with Sadiq Khan and Chukka Umunna about starting up a new pro-EU, anti-austerity party. LDEM are pro-austerity which is a little out of season at the moment so it has to be a new party.

    Umunna has a 26k+ majority in a seat that was 78% Remain. How principled is he to just sit and watch Corbyn allow the Tories to take UK out of the EU?

  15. @ DANNY – you might want to check some polling before you make wild speculation, see my post above or better yet open up the Survation tabs and look near the end.

  16. @Charles – I think that a bespoke deal will be available and May will ask us the accept it. This was the entire point of the request for a transition, as her rejection of the existing option de facto meant there wasn’t sufficient time to negotiate something suitable. It’s also worth noting that she hasn’t definitively stated anything about the transition length.

    Whether it will be acceptable I know not. It’s going to be attacked from both sides, with ardent leavers feeling let down while remainers may wonder why we are bothering to make what could end up being more or less symbolic changes.

    Both sides want a deal, but the UK needs one more, so the final position of the settlement will lean more to the EU’s starting position than to the UK’s, and I think everyone knows this. This is why May has already budged on a couple of key issues.

  17. @ ALEC – you could always check the polling info of course :)

  18. @TW – “@ ALEC – If you want to stop Brexit …” ????

    and – “@ ALEC – you could always check the polling info of course :)” – well I can’t, as there isn’t any yet.

  19. @ ALEC – from my 25Sep 9:02pm

    Also tucked away at the back of Survation is a “bad deal”/”no deal” question (Q20).

    “If Theresa May decides after negotiations end that “no deal” is better than the deal EU has offered the UK, which of the following is closest to your view?”

    Accept her decision (ie NO DEAL) 47%
    Not accept her decision 35%
    DK 18%

    As you’d expect there is a large partisan split with CON at 73% for accept but note 30% of LAB.

    If you ignore DKs then by 57% to 43% peeps would accept May’s decision that no deal is better than a bad deal.

    NB I’ve edited it down and paraphrased the questions and responses a little so please check for yourself. AW has the link to the tabs on the lead to this thread.

  20. @Alec Thanks. I am sure that both sides need a deal and that you are right a deal will lean more to the EU than to us. I am, however, unsure that the EU is in a position to strike a deal. So far they do not seem to have moved an inch and this despite the fact that we seemed to have moved quite a lot/

  21. Paul Croft,
    “Not that I don’t think that they might win, and hope that they do; but when the party they will be facing just ran the worst election campaign I’ve ever witnessed”

    But it didnt! It ran the campaign it needed to run in order to test the electorates resolve on Brexit. Similarly May is still leader because she ran the campaign well in very difficult circumstances. Ok, someone more charismatic migh have done better, but none was available. But also, the tories did not want to hoodwink people into voting for them. They needed to test genuine support for hard Brexit, and it was not there.

    Trevor Warne,
    The Uk cannot operate in its current form in a completely free trade environment. We in the EU preserve our relative richness by trade barriers against people with fundamentally lower living standards. Thats why being in the EU is good, outside bad. Its a huge fence protecting us from the wide world. The government knows this, everything now is about trying to square the circle, make the impossible possible. The UK cannot leave the EU and maintain its economy at the level it is now.

    If we do leave the EU, it will be the final act in the cllapse of the Uk from its imperial pinnacle. Even lave economists agree that leaving means a bonfire of Uk industry as it is now.

  22. Trevor Warne,
    “@ DANNY – you might want to check some polling before you make wild speculation, see my post above or better yet open up the Survation tabs and look near the end.”

    Hmm. conservative 20% lead in recent election?
    Our host has made a lot of comments about the difficulties of polling and the context in which questions are asked. Modern Politicians might have forgotten it, but politicians are supposed to lead parties and convince people. Farage did this well. Churchill was rather good at taking opposition and bringing it round to his way of thinking. He also reversed the nation’s view on engagement with europe.

  23. PAULCROFT

    Ahem. Con only won 42% of the national share of the vote in June.
    Fair point about Labour constantly talking up the proximity of the next election. It could still be nearly five years away.

    I think Corbyn has significantly improved as leader. His speech was impressive and Labour can be hopeful of a little bump up in the next batch of opinion polls. It will be interesting to see if the Tories project a united front next week.

  24. Mike Pearce,
    Unfair on Corbyn to start thinking about tories at his moment of vindication, but I too am very interested to see how the tories will respond to the platform he has presented.

    Oppositions might not hold power, but they do push the agenda. Corbyn claims to have pushed the centre ground his way, and the evidence seems to support this. The tories need to respond: either to somehow push it back, or to make concessions to the new centre.

  25. @TW – there is, as yet, no deal, so there is no polling on the deal. AW always warns us of polling on hypotheticals.

  26. @ DANNY – Great, let’s wait for the post Mar’19 GE and we’ll let the electorate decide – feel free to ignore all polling until then. Personally provided CON hold in on the VI for the short-term then move into the gapping hole in the centre in the next two budgets I’m very happy to leave it to the electorate. As you point out a 20pt lead can close to 2pts in just 7weeks so a -5pt could go to +10pt over the next 18mths – who knows? Once we’re out of the EU all the Remain hiding in LAB Vi will need to decide if they see the 1970s as the way forward or pick another party to vote for.

    If you want to stay in the EU though, I suggest you have a word with S.London LAB about N.London LAB.

  27. TREVOR WARNE

    Of course the electorate may prefer the 1970’s to going back to the 1950’s under May or the nineteenth Century under Rees-Mogg.

  28. @ ALEC – your posts do not suggest EU will give us a good deal. Every poll that asks about money shows peeps not keen to hand it over. Do you see a deal where we pay less than the peeps current perception of a deal?

    Generally seems to be a view that HMG have not prepared peeps for the harsh terms of the deal.

    No deal is not my preferred outcome but no deal is better than a bad deal IMHO so you just sit tight until late 2018 and we’ll wait for the HoC vote, safe in the knowledge that Corbyn wants out of ECJ jurisdiction even more than May does.

  29. Trevor Warne,
    “provided CON hold in on the VI for the short-term then move into the gapping hole in the centre in the next two budgets ”

    Problem is, the gaping hole is appearing as firm right ground falls away. The hole is where their firm ground used to be.

    Both parties votes were inflated by additional remain/leave support. Which side can keep hold of this better?

  30. DANNY

    Good point. Con benefitted from a strand of voters who would not normally vote for them but who did so in June as they are leave voters. It’s cuts both ways. Besides millions also voted Labour because they are sick and tired of targeted austerity.

  31. TrevorW
    As Roger from Mexico pointed out yesterday, the question on No deal versus Bad deal was not very precise. Some peeps may have thought No deal =not leaving the EU.

  32. Trevor Warne,
    “sit tight until late 2018 and we’ll wait for the HoC vote, safe in the knowledge that Corbyn wants out of ECJ jurisdiction even more than May does.”

    This is too simplistic. Corbyn’s position is being caricatured by everyone. Corbyn wants his left leaning agenda and being in government to carry it out. The impression I get is he is ambivalent on the EU, but I trust his 7/10, or whatever he gave it, during the referendum. Because he tends to say what he believes. He and May are quite similar in some ways. Similarly, May is probably quite pragmatic in her approach to Brexit and wants a solution which works rather than being determinedly leave or remain. Both of them want a settlement with the EU which maintains the trading relations the Uk currently enjoys.

    I have said before, that I could see May at the end stating to parliament she does not think the Uk should leave the EU on the available terms. She has a limited lifetime as PM, and she could go out on that note.

    As to Corbyn, he needs to reconcile leave and remain, and the way to do that is to leave without leaving. Its all in the manifesto. Put the economy first. But given the makeup of labour voters (2/3 remain) and the 1/3 still prioritising labour’s social policies, he is very well placed to win on a remainish compromise. Depending how well he could carry it off, with parliamentary defeats to conservative hard remain, he could be heading for an electoral landslide in a year.

    There is the small problem of the fixed term parliament act, but by then the tories might be willing to go quietly in an untenable position.

  33. DANNY
    “The only way to reunite the two camps is to leave without leaving.”
    Put differently, the only way to resolve the difficulty of controlling migration and of engaging in major public sector investment and ownership in the UK is to achieve access to the Single Market rather than membership, and to accept that the structure by which that is agreed and legalised in relation to the EU is secondary. And if you follow the logic of that, to accept that it has to be, and can be, (without infringing the sovereignty of the UK) determined by the EU – thus obviating the requirement whichT he Conservative team have assumed of negotiating it on equal terms

  34. DANNY
    ” Corbyn claims to have pushed the centre ground his way, and the evidence seems to support this”
    To be more precise,, if I heard him correctly and if indeed it is supported by the evidence, the centre ground has moved to a place where public sector intervention and taxation and regulatory measures to support it can follow a socialist agenda of redistribution of wealth and income and of public ownership of services and utitlities essential to public well being. He has moved the party and public opinion to meet a changing centre ground and made it capable of continuing to do so.

  35. As Trevor Warne says people are not keen to hand over money. As, however our money is the main negotiating card we have the kind of deal we get is likely to be very dependent on how much we hand over. This, after all, is the calculation the Norwegians made. And it is probably why TM appeared to promise that at least during the transition period no EU country is going to be worse off. (Leastways I think she promised that I only heard an account of the speech on the news)

    The problem is that no one appears to be doing any work to persuade the British People that we might want to hand over money. Paying for some things is undeniably in our interest – we want co-operation on security, agreements on who can fly where, economies of scale on inspecting nuclear plants, joint scientific projects and so on In my view we also benefit from whatever security the EU is able to get for its borders and from increasing prosperity in the poorer EU countries, common arrangements for managing fish stocks etc. And obviously we want free trade and the ability to attract the skills we need. I would have no problem accepting that we have to pay for all this as well as pensions or whatever that we inherited as obligations.

    Obviously I am not going to want to pay for all this if it is portrayed as a fine imposed for having the cheek to stand up to Brussels. Nor am I going to want to do it, if I am told that there is no penalty for simply walking out and telling Brussels to whistle for its money. Time for a bit of leadership from someone?

  36. TREVOR WARNE

    “If Theresa May decides after negotiations end that “no deal” is better than the deal EU has offered the UK, which of the following is closest to your view?”
    Accept her decision (ie NO DEAL) 47%
    Not accept her decision 35%
    DK 18%

    You need to be very careful about questions in this format. YouGov used to ask how people would vote if David Cameron renegotiated our relationship with Europe and said that Britain’s interests were now protected, and David Cameron recommended that Britain remain a member of the European Union on the new terms

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/vg5e4epeuz/YG-Trackers-Europe-Referendum-080625.pdf#page=13

    it usually showed a big majority for remaining, even if the ordinary referendum question was evenly split. When Cameron finally did just that, that majority vanished. Faced with an uncertain future, a similar thing could happen the other way and the electorate could turn on May.

  37. @John Pilgrim

    the only way to resolve the difficulty of controlling migration and of engaging in major public sector investment and ownership in the UK is to achieve access to the Single Market rather than membership, and to accept that the structure by which that is agreed and legalised in relation to the EU is secondary

    Are you saying something like this? [If I do a deal in France I would expect to be subject to French and EU law\ ‘ This seems fine to me. But would people accept in relation to the rights of EU citizens in the UK?

  38. “@ PETER – glad you notice the WTO exist, looking forward to UK taking our seat back :)”
    @Trevor Warne September 27th, 2017 at 12:37 pm

    Which seat is that? The WTO didn’t exist before 1995. Other countries that have since joined have typically taken several years to become members. There is no precedent for Brexit — it may not be as plain sailing as you would like.

  39. I have great difficulty in understanding what people mean when they say “access to the [EU] Single Market.

    I thought that every company in every state across the world had “access” to it – in the sense that if they had the possibility of selling their product in the EU, as long as it was defined by the EU as something they were willing to import, and that it met any tariff/quota arrangements.

    If “access” is supposed to mean something different from that, then surely it has to be negotiated, agreed and defined in a “deal”.

    Isn’t there a continuum of “access” to the EU Single Market, which ranges from the membership that the UK currently has to the access that states which have “no deal” with the EU currently have?

  40. Thinking about the Spanish suppression of the Catalonia referendum. I was wondering what kind of tech solutions the Catalan officials could employ, vote by Twitter storm? Or by Google search? I though perhaps they could decide to have the referendum during peak electrical usage time and the ask supporters of independence to switch off their power for an hour. There must be some way to have a non binding vote that would put pressure on the Spanish authorities.

  41. Anderlecht 0-3 Celtic. an away win in the Champions League…

    That’s even better than saturdays result…..but only just!

    Peter.

  42. Problem with Twitter and Google is there is no way to prevent or measure multiple voting, if you ask people to use a specific # on one day, ardent supporters would just go # crazy. If you asked supporters of independence to Google the Estrelle on a particular day you would run into the same problem. Monitoring electricity consumption has the problem that opponents might up their usage to change result. Any other ideas?

  43. Princess Rachel

    The pressure on Francoist Spain is more likely to come from the views of other states and the judgment of the ECJ.

    Hopefully, the Catalans will continue their non-violent response to repression, but their has to be a fear that Madrid has ensured violence by the repressed [1].

    The actual “result” of any votes cast on Sunday is no longer the issue. Madrid has ensured that it can’t be representative.

    The conflict between “integrity of the UN member state” and “people’s right to self-determination” just moves to a new level. Unfortunately, that level is more like the repression of East Timor by Indonesia.

    [1] I’m taking the family to Catalonia next year to celebrate our Golden Wedding, our son’s 20th and daughter’s 5th – but have opted for a villa in the mountains as probably a safer location than more populous areas.

  44. For months now may has been saying that;

    “No deal is better than a Bad deal!”

    But what does that make a bad deal?

    No deal seems to entail;
    WTO rules in clouding tariffs, no payment to the EU and no customs union or pass-porting, possible limited security and defence cooperation, but no ECJ.

    So what do people think the EU could offer that would be worse than that.

    Peter.

  45. Peter Cairns

    “So what do people think the EU could offer that would be worse than that.”

    Well, they could follow the Spanish example – ignore bits of their constitution, arrest UK political leaders and draft in their police to prevent voting in the UK.

  46. Good evening all from Winchester.

    With each passing day the prospect of PM ol Corby looks more likely. With a trade war looming with the USA, who were meant to be our Knight in shinning armour post Brexit, I think the Tories are going to buckle under the pressure and the Orange DUP will put the boot in.

    And well done to Celtic. First putting the boot into Sevco and now Anderlecht. Bad few days for Sevco and the Tories.

  47. Alex posted

    ”I would agree in one respect with @TOH on the specific point that asking for a transition deal did not, in itself, represent a change in government policy, because since the referendum, in private the government has been clear that a transition deal is absolutely needed. ”

    That is my understanding too that Davis made sure that Starmer knew he (Davis) wanted a transitional/interim deal last Autumn. Hence my view that where we are now was inevitable and is acceptable to both front benches.

    I would add 2 points:

    First, the GE imo was about trying to disarm the 30-40 Tory uber leavers as they stood in the way of a transitional deal being offered much earlier. The small Tory majority and the GE result losing that majority has delayed the ‘offer’ of a transitional deal by almost year as getting Con party support had to cover more MPs. This enable Labour to propose 3 years as one has been wasted (their view).
    NB) I guess I have a slightly different take to Danny in that I saw the GE as May wanting a less hard Brexit but the irony was that she got the votes of those wanting a Hard Brexit

    Secondly, Davis and Starmer as imo sensible politicians both understood the need for the transitional deal and in this sense there was little between Lab and Cons in practical terms in the last 12 months.
    They, though, have different visions about the final deal with Starmer wanting special access (beyond other EU trading partners ON I think) with possibly a bespoke deal and even SM/CU membership if the EU move on free movement enough. Davis wants a much looser connection with the EU going forward though. Real differences will emerge over the next 2 years.

  48. ALLAN

    If I was a betting man I would put money on Corbyn not ever becoming PM. I hope to be wrong on this.

  49. Allan,

    “With a trade war looming with the USA”

    Lets not get carried away….A US court has made a preliminary judgement on a Canadian Company that happens to have a plant in NI.

    Boeing and Airbus have been in the courts for decades and we haven’t even come close to an EU/US trade war, in fact we’ve seen trade expand and gradually get more open.

    This dispute might well support the view that, unfortunately for Brexiteers, it might occasionally rain on the Sunlit uplands of post the EU life, but it’s not a chasm opening to the inner pits of hell!

    Peter.

  50. Mike – if GE 2022 you will be right imo as Corbyn not leader by then.

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