Yesterday I got a few questions about a new BMG poll in the Independent that had voting intentions in a hypothetical EU referendum tomorrow at 52% remain, 48% leave. The Indy wrote this up with a pretty hyperbolic “Majority want to stay!!!”. The full results – along with a fair more reasonable and caveated write-up by BMG themselves – are here.

So, what is the bigger picture in terms of attitudes to Brexit, and is there any sign of people changing their minds?

I should start by pointing out that how people would vote in a hypothetical referendum tomorrow is not necessarily the same question as what people think should happen now (perhaps surprisingly!). If you ask people what should happen now, a clear majority say Britain should leave the EU. If you ask people how they’d vote in a referendum now, they are split down the middle between Remain and Leave. The difference appears to be because there is a chunk of people who personally favour remain, but think the government has a duty to leave following the referendum. Neither of these is necessarily a “better” measure of public opinion, opinion is best understood by looking at both: that is, the public are split equally on what they’d prefer, but some remainers think that the referendum means Brexit should go ahead anyway.

If we do look specifically at how people would vote in a referendum tomorrow, there is comparatively little change since 2016. Most Remain voters would still vote Remain, most Leave voters would still vote Leave. People who did not vote at all in 2016 tend to split in favour of Remain, meaning that the overall figure tends to be around a 50-50 split. Polls, of course, typically have a margin of error of around 2 or 3 points. This means if the actual position is a 50-50 split, then normal sample variation will inevitably spit out some results that are 52-48, or 48-52, or whatever. This is the unavoidable result of normal statistical variance, however, it does mean that now and again there will be a poll showing Remain with a small lead, which pro-Remain sorts will get wrongly overexcited about.

In terms of a trend, my impression is that there is some small degree of movement against Brexit… but it is very small. It is hard to discern a trend from questions asking the referendum question because they are infrequent, different companies use different methods and there may be different “house effects”. BMG have probably asked it more regularly than any other company, and looking at just their figures (in the link above) there is a slight trend towards Remain.

YouGov regularly ask a question about whether Britain was right or wrong to vote to Leave the EU (below), which also shows a very tight race, but a slight trend towards Remain. Last year it tended to show slightly more people thought it was the right decision than the wrong decision, now it tends to hover around neck-and-neck.

In summary, there hasn’t been any vast sea-change in attitudes towards Brexit. Most people who voted Remain would do so again, most people who voted Leave would do so again. There is some movement back and forth, but it mostly cancels itself out. If you look at the two most frequently repeated questions, the BMG question on referendum VI and the YouGov question on whether the decision was right or wrong, then there does appear to be movement towards Remain… but it is as yet pretty small and pretty slow. In short, there are some “bregrets”, but not enough to really get excited about. If there is going to be a big change, I still wouldn’t expect to see it until the leaving deal (and the consequences of it) become a bit clearer.


428 Responses to “Bregrets, there are a few… but then again, too few to mention”

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  1. @ PRINCESS RACHEL – poll on uber:

    http://interactive.news.sky.com/SMSLIX_UBER_220917_FP.pdf

    By 60% to 29% Londoners thought uber should be allowed to operate. Bear in mind London has large lead on LAB VI!!

    IMHO the role of the state is to encourage individual endeavour and entrepreneurship and only step in when the market is broken and/or the public need protection. If a restaurant has some small issues they get a fine and some time to fix the issues, if the issues put the pubic at risk they are closed down – thats an example of the progressive role of regulation to meet the scale of the problem.

    If I was to pick two areas where investigating followed by new regulation was required I’d go for:
    1/ Pay-day loan sharks (sprung up in the gap between BoE and govt oversight)
    2/ Rip-off universities

    uber is the second union issue to pop up in London in as many weeks. Everyone loves the far-left agenda until it actually starts to impact their own life.

    My sympathy goes out to Macron – I hope between the EU demands of austerity and the Melenchon mobs he can find a way to fix France’s many problems, especially the chronically high levels of youth unemployment.

  2. Trevor Warne

    IRELAND
    STAR PERFORMER
    COUNTRY RATING A1
    Strengths
    Strong business environment
    Lowest corporate tax rate within the Eurozone
    Exports oriented towards sectors with high value added
    Robust current account surplus
    Strong education system
    English speaking business location?
    Weaknesses
    Sensitive to external shocks due to high openness
    High dependency on foreign investment
    High private and public debt

    http://www.eulerhermes.com/economic-research/country-reports/Pages/Ireland.aspx

  3. JIMJAM

    Re Banks. It’s interesting to note that the job numbers in London have actually gone up, not down as many forecast, at least so far.

  4. I think Pax Germanica are finally starting to see why empires are more trouble than they are worth and they haven’t had one for long :)

    I have my fingers crossed on Merkel+FDP result today. My wallet just needs it to be Merkel but lots of reasons why FDP, plus the Greens if reqd, coalition partner and SPD as opposition would be good for Germany, the EU and in a very indirect and minor way the UK.

  5. @ THE OTHER HOWARD
    “JIMJAM
    Re Banks. It’s interesting to note that the job numbers in London have actually gone up, not down as many forecast, at least so far.
    September 24th, 2017 at 8:32 am”

    Is that employment in Banks or generally ?

    Because of the fall in value of Pounds Sterling, there has been an increase in tourists visiting and spending money. So much of the increase may just relate retail and hospitality sectors.

  6. Seems to me that every time May and Co try to get down to the details of negotiating brexit the whole thing gets stuck – because she does not have the political authority to take a position that wont face strident opposition from her own party and/or parliament or gets stuck in the rats nest of complexity and unintended consequences involved in extracting the uk from 40 years of interconnected legal and trade rules and regs. the irish border in particular looks like its impossible to solve.

    Thats why i think “hard brexit” is the only viable brexit. This is why may served up a big lump of fudge on soggy waffle in florence whilst kicking the brexit can down the road. Labour are involved in the same game but hav the luxary of being able to sit and carp from the side lines ( and fair enough – the tories brought this on themselves – so they can own it).

    So we have the entire political class dragging its feet and unable to do more than offer platitudes and reassurances whilst frantically trying to find a way out of an impossible impasse. Because – outside the headbanger faction of the tory party – the consensus is that a cliff edge brexit will be a disaster.

    As for the polls – i think the polling that shows and acceptance of brexit from remainers is more a “get on with it” urge due to a desire to end the uncertainty – and the grinding tedium of back and forth debates about the minutiae of EU regulations and trade deals (hence the r/wing press and brexit politicians constant resort to breezy rhetoric and populist tub thumping) . Its the most dismally dull poltical earthquake ever.

    As we approach the (probably inevitable) cliff edge the push back will become stronger and more urgent. When it comes to the crunch i still believe the potlical class will bail out on brexit – potentially creating yet more turmoil and giving the brexiters a “stab in the back” greivenace to toxify politics for the next generation.

  7. Will Hutton article in todays paper. Agree with every word.

    https://amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/sep/23/mrs-may-falseh**ds-and-fantasies-designed-only-to-keep-her-party-together

    One of the issues raised is non tariff barriers to trade. This is something that is not discussed enough. Many countries that the UK will look to agree trade deals with, have protected market areas, which they will stick to, if they believe it is in their interests. So the UK could agree tariff free trade deals with countries and still not have full market access. Part of these deals might include increase in immigration visas to the UK, which will not be pleasing to many who voted leave. If you replace EU immigrants, with immigrants from all around the world in similar net migration numbers to now, then many leave voters are going to be very unhappy.

  8. Alec

    “It remains a complete mess, with no clear idea of how May see the final deal shaping up. She knows there must be a deal, and I suspect she also knows that to get this, she will have to agree to terms many in her party won’t support.”

    Not a complete mess at all IMO, the governments positionhas not actually changed significantly at all. As to “she must get a deal” that is nonsense as a deal is not in her hands, it’s up to the EU and they show no signs of wanting a deal. I think you are totally misreading the situation.

    Why do you think she reiterated yet again that “no deal is better than a bad deal”?

  9. R HUCKLE

    Banking

  10. The link in last post won’t work as it contains a moderated word, but well worth search for Will Huttons article. Even if you disagree with it, important issues are raised.

  11. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    “R HUCKLE
    Banking
    September 24th, 2017 at 8:46 am”

    Searched for data on this. Could not find any.

    Do you have a link ?

  12. TREVOR WARNE
    ” did you guys miss all the votes in HoC and HoL that led to triggering A50?”
    Which guys are those, Trev? Speaking, as I do, strictly for myself, no I did not miss the votes, or, more importantly, the debates,since it is there in the House of Commons and in the House of Lords,, given the Government’s use of the whip, that the scrutiny of the process demanded of the Government by the High Court was exercised. Read those and you would recognise the arbitrary way in which the Government has evaded parliamentary process to force through a measure contrived by the use of a referendum based on a false prospectus: false in its use of the process of public information and in substance in respect of two factors which had underlain the use of the mechanism to counter opposition in the country and in parliament which threatened the Conservative party’s tenure on government: that of migration and that of the scale and use of UK EU funding and its potential availability in public sector financing. This record of falsity would matter less if it did not underlie the ensuing weakness of the present government,both in the country and in is management of the negotiation of Brexit, rightly identified by the EC and the European Parliament as lacking in competence and credibility.

  13. I am often reminded of Matthew Parris’s treatment around 2000 of why Tony Blair was getting away with things that would have been disastrous to Labour (e.g. the Bernie Ecclestone affair). Parris explained: Political reputation is like a lake, and scandals are like stones being thrown in. At first they may create big splashes, but they disappear making apparently no difference. But eventually a mound of stones breaks the surface, and it is there for all to see, all the time.

    This happened with Teresa May’s “Nothing’s changed”. What should have been her taking personal responsibility for a mistake, turned into a clear demonstration that everything the Guardian had said by way of personal attack was accurate.

    Now, there are two possible lakes in play:

    Firstly: Most plausibly, the failure of the UK to make any progress in negotiations leads to an unshakeable conclusion that the whole thing was misconceived, and the government is incompetent. The way Remainers view everything in terms of government incompetence against superior EU intelligence is a key part of this. For example: simultaneously the UK is accused of making demands on the EU, and not telling the EU what it wants. Even if the EU demands for money are unclear, have changed greatly, and were entirely unanticipated by Remain in the referendum campaign, it is all a matter of the UK not meeting its clear and obvious obligations.

    Second lake – much less likely – at some point the EU and its supporters overplay their hand. Maybe the EU makes it clear that it has no intention of negotiating. Maybe Labour moves too quick to proposing staying in the EU. What if the EU’s refusal to negotiate leads to people like Ken Clarke changing sides. Maybe Hammond decides that his support for compromise is never going to lead anything other than more EU red lines, and the whole “Brexit nutters” line becomes harder to maintain.

    With this in mind, I dare say Starmer is very cross with Labour’s Bremain groupings.

  14. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    In my opinion “no deal is better than a bad deal” died when she asked for a transition period.

  15. Just scanned the extract from Tim Shipman’s book in ST. The most telling remark from this bunch of ferrets in a sack is from Hammond-tries to engage Boris in the detail of Brext but fails because Boris falls back on “headlines”.

    My first thought after today’s headlines were-oh god its 1997 all over again-and at least I could vote Labour then. But the colour coded Cabinet photo helped a bit-only Boris +5 in kamikaze “Team Blue”. Everyone else in “Team Yellow”……..except May & Davis -who are pragmatic “Team Grey” ( sic !).

    Then on to DD on Marr-confident, pragmatic, well briefed………..phew!

    How long can Boris stay in the Cabinet?

  16. @ JOHN PILGRIM – both main parties used the whip system to approve A50, not just the govt – LAB supported it (although they did have quite a few break whip). I’m not defending an imperfect system but it is the system we have. IMHO the shambles of the whole referendum process from start to finish shows how completely unsuited the UK is to referendums as a democratic tool.

    Refer to AW’s lead on this thread – only 27% of electorate (allowing for poll MOE, caveats, etc) want to stop Brexit – commonly referred to as the Hard Core Remain. It is totally their right to continue the battle and seek representation of their view within political parties and ultimately in the next GE – that is the UK democratic system..

    The technical ability to stop Brexit has been discussed at length on previous threads (one country says “non” and we have cliff-edge, no deal scenario in Mar’19).

    Even debating Swiss, Norway, Canada, etc is really pointless – we’ll get the deal that we get and we’ll be able to take it or leave it. HMG is rightly trying to get the best deal possible, I would expect nothing less if LAB were in power, but it takes two to tango and although May has finally moved onto the dance floor the EU might stay staring from the sidelines looking for her to show some more moves before engaging.

    No deal is a very realistic outcome – I’m disappointed we have not started planning for it and very concerned that if the process is frustrated in HoC then the Smoggster+co. will get the Brexit that they want, aided by frustration techniques of Hard Core Remain. I’d rather have a good deal than no deal but if it comes down to it then no deal is better than a horrific deal.

    I admire the way Sturgeon has learnt from the GE and quite ashamed May hasn’t taken on a more cross-party, devolved approach but given the strong partisan hatred between the main parties and huge gulf between ideology on non-Brexit matters it is hardly surprising CON have been forced to take a solo approach and LAB adopt a frustration approach.

  17. JOHN PILGRIM

    @” rightly identified by the EC and the European Parliament as lacking in competence and credibility.”

    And by those with UK’s interests at heart , as pursuant of those interests ; rather than the unquestioning acceptance of every EU position ,which is the criterion for those like you John.

  18. re-drafted as I triggered automod forgive double posting as a result.

    Thanks Howard,

    Like many on the centre-left I have an inconsistent and ambiguous view of banking jobs, the casino type ones.

    On the one hand I would rather we had a better balanced economy with less reliance of the financial sector (we were more vulnerable in 2008 than most other countries).

    OTOH, The money they bring to London and by extension the whole of the SEast (and beyond to an extent) is something I don’t want to lose.

    The far left suggest Nu-Lab made a compact with the city taking the Tax revenues to spend on transfers whilst not addressing under!ing productivity issues and manufacturing atrophy.

    IMO, Ed Milliband got this also with his clumsy but actually sensible pre-distribution ideas but sadly (for people like me) the macro-message was incoherent and presentation poor.

    Joseph, Yes Starmer is cross with them and with others in Labour’s from bench who seem to be unable to grasp what he is endeavouring to achieve with tbf Corbyn support and McDonnell’s acquiescence if not enthusiastic advocacy.

  19. According to the ONS employment in the financial services sector hasn’t changed in the last three quarters,and it is lower than at the time of the referendum (but the fall started at the end of 2015.

    https://www.ons.gov.uk/employmentandlabourmarket/peopleinwork/employmentandemployeetypes/datasets/employmentbyindustryemp13

  20. @ R HUCKLE – I read Will Hutton’s piece. Poignant if the date was pre Jun’16 – irrelevant now.

    If he was to elaborate on his final sentence:
    “We can and must stay”

    Describing how that is possible and how that would be better than negotiating for the best possible exit then I’d love to read such an article.

    From what I’ve seen no one has shown what leaving with no deal or trying to re-negotiate to stay would look like economically and since A50 has been triggered both are future unknowns and prone to significant guesswork. I’ve attempted to model both scenarios (from before Jun’16) and of the two leave with no deal wins out significantly in the long-term (although bumpier in the short-term).

    The biggest li4rs at the moment (IMO) are those continuing to propagate the belief that we can simply forget the referendum, forget the HoC debate+votes, forget triggering A50 and pretend it all never happened. Leave campaign had the title up to Jun’16 but have long since handed it over to Remain.

  21. add a few ,s in above. typing from a phone

  22. Thanks Howard, I responded but in auto-mod despite 2 attempts not sure what triggering.

    Joseph, Yes Starmer is cross with them and with others in Labour’s from bench who seem to be unable to grasp what he is endeavouring to achieve with tbf Corbyn support and McDonnell’s acquiescence if not enthusiastic advocacy.

  23. The Other Howard: Not a complete mess at all IMO, the governments position has not actually changed significantly at all. As to “she must get a deal” that is nonsense as a deal is not in her hands, it’s up to the EU and they show no signs of wanting a deal. I think you are totally misreading the situation.
    The change in government position is about as significant as the potential suicide who is talked down from the parapet. There is no significant change is position, they still want to jump and may indeed come to regret being talked down.

    But despite the change in position not being significant, to any outside observer there is a significant change in outcome, in that they have not jumped yet. Perhaps if – to continue the metaphor – you shared your depressing thoughts with the government, rather than here, you could induce them back onto the parapet, ready to jump.

    Why do you think she reiterated yet again that “no deal is better than a bad deal”?
    Because ‘Brexit means Brexit’ was not quite appropriate as a mantra in this situation – and is worn out any way and because she has not thought of another mantra which would catch your imagination.

  24. I think the fact that now the right wing press are heavily reporting on splits within the cabinet shows what a mess this is. May does not have any authority. Some of her cabinet want to replace her. There is no cabinet agreement about the preferred outcome to Brexit negotiations

    Labour are also struggling but because they are not in power they can get away with it. Corbyn is now coming under pressure to adopt a policy position of Britain remaining within the single market on a permanent basis. That would effectively undo the Referendum in my view.

    As with Blair David Cameron will have a sorrowful legacy. For something as complex as EU membership to put to a Referendum was idiotic. There was no plan for the aftermath of a Leave vote. It was just his way of trying to detoxify EU membership within the Tory party. He put his Premiership ahead of the good of the country and we are now left with this complete shambles.

  25. Post conference cabinet reshuffle speculation time yet?

    I can’t see it happening but swap BoJo and Hammond. If May can’t fire BoJo move him to somewhere more useful in the current political climate and get mild-mannered austerity Phil out there as UK’s #1 diplomat and away from fiscal responsibility :)

  26. TREVOR WARNE

    @” If May can’t fire BoJo”

    I’m not convinced that she can’t.

  27. TREVOR WARNE
    ” given the strong partisan hatred between the main parties and huge gulf between ideology on non-Brexit matters it is hardly surprising CON have been forced to take a solo approach and LAB adopt a frustration approach.”
    I assume you mean an approach frustratng the intentions or strategy of the Government. The approach I support is that framed by Starmer and supported in Parliament by statements and position papers of the opposition Front Bench, largely with the support of other opposition parties and the regional governments. It includes the demand for a transitional period to make for workable Brexit timetable,now adopted by the Prime Minister and a central point in her Florence speech, It differs from and opposes the Government position in asking for continued access to the Single Market and membership o the Customs Union, under a structure to be negotiated. The latter position is supported by the City and by the Unions, and for example in the strongly researched and argued position of the Scottish Government.
    COLIN
    “And by those with UK’s interests at heart , as pursuant of those interests ; rather than the unquestioning acceptance of every EU position ,which is the criterion for those like you”
    I’ld be glad to debate that proposition, if there were any profit in it. As it is, you’ll permit me to place it into the category of unevidenced and ad hominem assertions of which you are the master – but am happy to offer, in any context in which your posts drift into the reality of the EU structure and its relations with the UK, to let you know on what points I agree and differ.with EU policy or with EC policy management.

  28. @ COLIN
    “TREVOR WARNE
    @” If May can’t fire BoJo”
    I’m not convinced that she can’t.
    September 24th, 2017 at 10:52 am”

    I expect Theresa May had a ‘ Yes Prime Minister’ type thought about the ‘Boris problem’. Make him Foreign Secretary and he will spend most of the time out of the country, so he can’t stir things up in London. The problem with this idea, is that Boris spends a lot of time on aeroplanes thinking about newspaper articles he can write and can submit these very easily using modern communication. When YPM was written, it was before the current internet age.

    If i were advising TM, i would suggest that she tells him not to write any more articles on Brexit or EU issues. If he writes any more articles or makes any comments which are not Government policy, he will be sacked immediately. TM cannot allow the cult of Boris to grow in the Tory party.

  29. There is only one solution to the current mess. May has to get off the fence and face down the hard Brexiteers. The time to do this will be after Barnier reports insufficient progress. She could then sack all of Johnson, Davis and Fox, saying that despite being given a free hand they have made a complete shambles of Brexit, and we need a new team and a new approach.

    Yes, she would then face a leadership challenge, but she would be on the front foot and might have a chance of winning even given the make-up of the Tory membership. If she doesn’t do this she is going to have to face a Boris challenge at a time of *his* choosing.

    One thing Hutton got wrong in his article, the current mess is not (wholly) to do with internal Tory politics, it is about May clinging onto power. She doesn’t believe she can beat Boris in a leadership battle, so everything she does is about avoiding having to face that.

  30. John – you are one of the posters whose views align with mine most of the time, for example your encapsulation of Starmer’s approach and merits just now.

    The Irony in the below to Coin tickled me I have say.

    ”ad hominem assertions of which you are the master ‘

  31. R Huckle: I expect Theresa May had a ‘ Yes Prime Minister’ type thought about the ‘Boris problem’. Make him Foreign Secretary and he will spend most of the time out of the country, so he can’t stir things up in London. ….

    If i were advising TM, i would suggest that she tells him not to write any more articles on Brexit or EU issues. If he writes any more articles or makes any comments which are not Government policy, he will be sacked immediately. TM cannot allow the cult of Boris to grow in the Tory party.
    I always thought he was made FS as part of making him own the consequences of Brexit. When he walked out of No 10 after appointment, he looked to me like a man lost in rather unhappy thoughts.

    As for giving Boris an ultimatum, well it looks to me like he would love to be sacked.

  32. COLIN
    I quite liked the Shakespearian tone of her Florence speech, as surely TOH must have done, which I may perhaps paraphrase as: Now is the winter of our discontent made glorious summitry.
    The mention of a special relationship with the EU (!) and of a Treaty, practically had illuminated scrollwork and the sound of trumpets about them.
    Would you agree with me, though, that a Treaty would of necessity be much the same as any enactment of a negotiated settlement for tarriff-free access to the EU market, and for the equal rights of EU citizens working in the UK and vice versa?

  33. CHRISR

    “In my opinion “no deal is better than a bad deal” died when she asked for a transition period.”

    Well not in mine. She repeated it in Venice.

    R Huckle

    Sorry cannot find the reference. It was in a newspaper last week and they have all been collected by the bin men. The increase year on year was small about 3000 jobs from memory.

  34. Trevor Warne

    “No deal is a very realistic outcome – I’m disappointed we have not started planning for it ”

    More than realistic, the most likely in my view. As to planning i have heard D Davis say more than once that he spends more than half his time on doing just that.

  35. From the Survation poll, via LabourList,

    “In terms of “Managing the economy overall” the public rates the Conservative government at -10, from +13 a year ago, with only 35 per cent rating the government “very good” or “good”, a change of – 23 points on what is always a core Conservative brand strength.”

    This may concern the Conservatives as this is seen a strength for them.

    Forgive lack of Labour figures as details not released yet. Given the source they may be worse. Details will be released next Monday.

    https://labourlist.org/2017/09/polling-chief-labour-can-capitalise-as-tory-trust-on-the-economy-plunges/

  36. @ TOH

    “It was in a newspaper last week and they have all been collected by the bin men.”

    Don’t you wish you were in Birmingham, then you’d still have your newspapers.

    (As it happens my bins were emptied promptly on Wednesday about one hour after I put them out, but it had been a three week wait.)

  37. BoJo – yellow carded, but will never get the red (IMHO)

    Quick dirty maths as can’t open the full info so apologies if a few tiny numerical errors.

    CON coalition of chaos (from soft-remain to extreme Brexit):
    Soubs, etc <=10
    DUP 10
    SCON 13
    Bulk of CON 265
    No-deal Brexiteers <=30

    BoJo should be shouting from the back benches but Fox and DD (the other 2/3rds of the musketeers) are getting on with it and for now Hammond appears to have the upper hand (Rudd, etc all very quiet but assumed to be on the softer side)

    Whilst Soubs, DUP, SCON, etc could all potentially push a softer Brexit they would be unlikely to risk CON's majority in a vote. I can't say the same for the <=30ish that BoJo seems to feel he needs to speak for.

    If he was going to be sacked surely it would have happened by now? Maybe after Repeal Bill has passed, budget, etc May might take the chance but then he'd be peeing from outside the tent and that might be even worse for govt stability?

    I don't like the terms soft, hard, etc but use them for simple understanding purposes.

    TOH – encouraged to hear DD is giving it a lot of thought. I think it's understandable politically why he doesn't share that info. When I'm back on full access mode I'll try and simplify some of my "no deal" and "return" forecasts with key assumptions – doubt it will be today, possibly tomorrow.

    P.S. Highly recommend "6days in September" by W.Keegan. Its a very quick read (managed it between various kids homework help). "Easternisation" was an excellent "global" look at the new millenium but I found it very interesting to relive the 1992 experience of c0cking up the exit of a European project.

  38. Colin

    “Then on to DD on Marr-confident, pragmatic, well briefed……”

    Yes I watched him on Marr. Very good as usual, and good to see the ECJ firmly ruled out as last arbiter again.

    I fully support your comments about many Remainers here. One wonders if some are British nationals reading some of the posts.

    MONOCHROME OCTOBER

    I have no depressing thoughts about leaving the EU, it’s what I’ve wanted for over 40 years. Leaving may depress you but certainly not me.

  39. Trevor Warne

    Yes I’ve got Keegan on my to read list. Thank you.

    I don’t agree that Hammond is in the ascendant; my feeling is that he has been reigned in.

  40. TOH @ Colin.

    ” I fully support your comments about many Remainers here. One wonders if some are British nationals reading some of the posts.”

    Can you explain why this is relevant?

  41. MARKW

    The comment was addressed specifically to Colin. I suspect it is relevant to him, but no doubt he will comment if necessary.

  42. more moderation

  43. I fully support your comments about many Remainers here. One wonders if some are British nationals reading some of the posts.”
    Which in turn fully supports another widely held view – Little Englanders have voted to f*ck up the country and they now consider anybody who says so to be tra1tors.

  44. ah – the T word

  45. TOH, your a slippery one as ever.

    I note that you often make lofty inflammatory statements and refuse to explain them, all imho obvs.

    I suppose this plays into the ‘red hat’ brexit way of reasoning.

    I for one resent the constant and unhelpful stereotyping of people who wish to remain in the EU by lofty leavers.

    http://www.debonogroup.com/six_thinking_hats.php

  46. JOHN PILGRIM

    @” unevidenced and ad hominem assertions ”

    Evidence ?

    Your post-that EU’s stance is correct & UK’s is not.

    Not evidence that you are right-but evidence of your opinion.

  47. 2c on financial services jobs.

    I can’t open the excel sheet from LASZLO’s ONS link at the moment but my suspicion would be that the official stats are largely “noise”. As is natural, businesses of all types outsource when appropriate and make use of different tax regimes (not ideal but needs tackling globally).

    A lot of banks have already moved back office roles to places such as Bournemouth, Dublin, etc due to the very high cost of living in London.

    2015 was a time when the exchange rate might well have made sense to pick non-UK versus UK for outsourcing lower skilled sectors of finance and insurance services.

    It is worth remembering UK is the GLOBAL lead in financial services. The EU periodically reset their policies with treaties (Maastricht, Lisbon, etc). If the next one tackles common tax regime, tax on financial transactions, etc. then whether or not we were in the EU our ability to hold the global lead in financial services would be very seriously compromised. Does anyone feel confident EU won’t push in this direction (even if we had stayed)?

    Taking a 10y+ horizon the competition to our developed competitive advantage in financial services is not Frankfurt or Dublin. It is NY, Singapore, Shanghai, Mumbai, etc

    The way to move forward for a developed nation is to develop higher skilled jobs domestically, especially in areas of a genuine competitive advantage (e.g. finance) or where no true competitive advantage exists anymore (e.g. cars), and outsource the lower skilled jobs as we do so. That is how you increase GDP/capita.

    Now at 4.3% unemployment and the electorate feeling CON are mismanaging the economy we clearly have some social issues to tackle – I hope come 22Nov, May-Hammond have got the message.

  48. R HUCKLE

    @”. TM cannot allow the cult of Boris to grow in the Tory party.”

    I agree-though his star in the Parliamentary Party seems on the wane-thank goodness.

    The Membership is something else-as Blairite Labour MPs discovered.

  49. @nickp

    Quite. This ridiculous idea that patriotism demands blind obedience is one of the nastier strands in some Brexiters thinking.

  50. JOHN PILGRIM

    @”Would you agree with me, though, that a Treaty would of necessity be much the same as any enactment of a negotiated settlement for tarriff-free access to the EU market, and for the equal rights of EU citizens working in the UK and vice versa?”

    I’m probably missing the real purpose of this question-so will answer at the superficial level:-

    Depends on the terms of the Treaty I guess-isn’t it the intent & outcome, rather than the legal vehicle which matters?

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