Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor has topline figures of CON 40%(-1), LAB 44%(+2), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 2%(-1). Fieldwork was over the weekend and changes are from July.

Leader satisfaction ratings are May minus 17, Corbyn minus 3 and Cable minus 1. While Vince Cable has the least negative net rating, this is because he has far higher don’t knows than the other two leaders (39% compared to 10%) rather than any great surge of “pro-Vince” feeling. MORI also asked some more detailed questions about perceptions of the leaders’ qualities, underlining the collapse in perceptions of May’s and the rehabilitation of Jeremy Corbyn since last year. In September 2016 Theresa May had better ratings on almost everything (the sole exception was being marginally more likely to be seen as more style than substance). Now there are obvious areas where the two leaders outshine each other – May is still more likely to be seen as a capable leader, good in a crisis (though her leads are vastly reduced – in 2016 she beat Corbyn by 44 points on being a capable leader, now it’s only 7 points), but Corbyn now has strong leads on personality and honesty, and is much less likely to be seen as out of touch.

MORI also repeated their regular question comparing the popularity of leaders and their parties – do respondents like the leader and party, the leader but not their party, the party but not its leader, or neither of them? 46% of people said they liked Jeremy Corbyn (up 9 since last year), putting him eight points behind Labour on 54% (up 8) – that means both Corbyn and Labour have become more popular, but Corbyn continues to be less popular than his party. Compare this with the Conservatives: a year ago Theresa May vastly outshone her party, by 60% to 38%. That gap has now vanished – the Conservative party is still only liked by 38%, but Theresa May is now on the same figure, down by 22 points (At the risk of pointing out the obvious, note how much stronger the Labour brand remains than the Conservative party – while they may not vote for them, most people have a broadly positive perception of the Labour party, far more than can be said for the Tories). Full tabs are here

There was also a poll by Opinium at the weekend, which had movement in the opposition direction. Their topline figures were CON 41%(+1), LAB 41%(-2), LDEM 5%(-1), UKIP 5%(+1). Looking at the broader picture, the polls still appear to be clustered around a very small lead for the Labour party. Tabs for Opinium are here.


308 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 40, LAB 44, LDEM 9”

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  1. PETERW

    Thanks.

    I am a little more wary than you of coming to conclusions about detailed discussions which we cannot be aware of.

    I watch the Press Conference after each round & try to interpret the words.

    As I said, my impression is of Pragmatism vs Process.-but we will see after the next round if things have moved beyond waving Position Papers at each other.

    Perhaps of more import is the opinion of Merkel-and I guess we won’t know what that is until she has sorted out a new coalition-an uncomfortable one perhaps.

  2. MARTIN L @ BZ

    Sorry Barbazenzero, what you are saying is simply not accurate. Take Spain for example…..

    I don’t think you can have read my post.

    What you say is true, and perfectly normal. It gets a mention on the Europa site in the free movement area.

    What you omit is that every adult Spanish citizen also has to go through the same procedure in the same police station to get an identity card and an NIF [Fiscal #; The E in NIE is for non-locals]. I’m not a resident of Spain, but have a house there and an NIE, which is needed in Spain to create and manage bank accounts, and which dates from the early 1980s – before Spain joined what is now the EU.

    The point is that the Spanish system does NOT discriminate between locals and other EU citizens. The proposed UK system would.

    SAM @ BZ

    Mrs May’s speech in Florence said little about the rights of EU citizen’s living here.

    Sadly so.

  3. theexterminatingdalek: I am genuinely interested to understand why those in favour of leaving believe that walking out of the discussions would put any pressure on the EU. …. OK, what specific pressure would walking out of talks put on the EU?
    OK, this a Remainer’s answer, imagining what the Leave answer is.

    Even now as we post here, Mercedes, BMW and VW execs are hammering furiously on Merkel’s door howling that their businesses are in imminent peril unless the EU does a deal with the UK. If we refuse to talk with Barnier, this will form a pincer movement which will place Merkel under intolerable pressure to do the deal with Britain deserves.

    Of course, a real Leaver might have a better answer.

  4. MO

    I thought the edalek was asking a “what have the Romans … ” type question. it is a bit early for the Panto season yet

    Posting of the panto season . are there any negotiations pencilled in for December.?They will no doub be arranged to avoid Barnier’s annual holiday clubbing seals in the Arctic especially those that look like David Davis.

  5. I wonder if “political knowledge” might embrace this

    https://www.researchgate.net/publication/290393618_How_Corrupt_is_Britain

  6. Barbazenzero

    I doubt if much progress on the rights of UK citizens in the EU and of EU citizens in the UK will be made. Here is an academic opinion on the leaked draft of UK government thinking on the rights of EU citizens here

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/brexit/2017/09/21/the-language-of-nationalism-what-to-make-of-the-leaked-immigration-plans/

    “The guiding ideology of the report (which is factually false) suggests that the UK immigration system will serve the UK’s interests ahead of those of migrants. This idea is built on the false assumption – which goes against all academic evidence – that the current UK migration system benefits EU citizens (or migrants), and disadvantages UK citizens. Most evidence points to the contrary. Migrants contribute financially much more than they claim in benefits, and the migration system is already designed to ensure that receiving countries – not only the UK, but most countries in the Western world – gain economically.”

  7. I see nothing in May’s speech to move the process forward.

    The EU wants substantive progress on the three substantive issues and we didn’t get that.

    We saw nothing really on Northern Ireland.

    About the only workable solutions I can see that stops NI being a potential Trojan horse to bypass the EU’s external tariff regime is either a hard border or an Irish sea one.

    The South and EU doesn’t want a hard one and the UK and particularly the DUP don’t want sea one. Someone is going to have to give and I don’t see it being the EU.

    I think both sides know not everyone will be happy either way so it’s more about Blame. the EU wants it to be a “UK” proposal that they reluctantly agree to, so that it’s our fault.

    Hard border upsets the Dublin and republicans, sea border Unionists. Overall NI which voted remain will bare the brunt either way.

    On Citizens rights as has been said already the EU wants EU citizens in the UK to have across the board the same rights as UK ones. I suppose their is some flexibility over who overseas that as, although losing the right to appeal to the ECJ is a loss on existing rights, UK citizens will be losing it as well.

    Given that one of the big issues with immigration was EU nationals claiming benefits, if the Tories had bit the bullet on the back of Austerity and tightened benefit rules for everybody, i.e. no one can claim unless they have worked for two years, we might not have had Brexit.

    The issue here is that although what the EU wants isn’t that difficult, it isn’t acceptable to a majority of Tory voters, so a fair workable deal doesn’t seem to be politically acceptable.

    As to the offer of two extra years to sort ourselves out before the final split how exactly can asking them to give us more time to sort out our mess possibly be described as a generous offer!

    it’s like saying…

    “I driven into the back of your car but I’ll do you a favour and pay for it to get repaired…in a couple of years!”

    Peter.

  8. bZ

    perhaps you ought to apply the Hireton bias test to your links?she writes no doubt from the entirely neutral University of Europe that well known hotbed of euro discontent !!!

  9. Peter Cairns

    Glad to see you have regained your sense of humour. My tip: keep off the frosties.

    I think you car analogy would be better if we inserted that the repair bill was fraudulent and a work of fiction.

  10. S Thomas,

    Never lost my sense of humour it just tends to be self effacing rather than self servicing.

    That’s why I don’t do clawing self congratulatory posts enduring those I agree with.

    I’ll add to them or add my take on it, but you won’t get any;

    “How splendid it is that you too see my wisdom!” from me.

    Peter.

  11. @Peter Cairns

    Actually, if S Thomas were to see your wisdom, that might actually be worthy of note.

  12. SAM @ BZ

    I doubt if much progress on the rights of UK citizens in the EU and of EU citizens in the UK will be made.

    Agreed. The only thing that May said yesterday which might have helped Barnier a smidgeon in considering that some progress had been made towards getting past the preliminaries was on debt.

    Nothing meaningful on citizen’s rights and the continued “magic” Irish border won’t give Davis anything to brag about in next week’s discussions with Barnier.

    All in all, HMG seem to have much the same prescience as the Dubliners’ Sick Note.

    Older contributors here may recall that this song is largely based on Gerard Hoffnung’s 1958 Oxford Union Address.

  13. robin

    would that be hisTriumph Wisdom which is rather remarkably “self servicing”.

    it appears to have been shunted by the Alvis Brexiteer.

  14. Peter Cairns (SNP): I see nothing in May’s speech to move the process forward.

    Me neither. But I think your expectations are too high. However, it is progress, because inherently there is an admission that for all the reasons you state, it can’t go forward.

    FWIW, this morning I have begun to think that there is probably a little more cabinet unity than has been credited. I am suspecting that Boris’s regurgitation of the £350 million fable in the Telegraph was stage managed theatre rather than an act of rebellion.

    Remember that Boris has no sense of principle, only a sense of what serves Boris best at the time. He would still like to be PM, but not until Brexit is sorted, so that someone else takes the blame. So what better than to write his article and appear to keep faith with the Leave vote. So much the better if he is given a free pass to do it in exchange for his agreement to the Florence speech in cabinet.

    If EU agreement to 2 further years for the UK in the SM and the CU has been brokered, there is still the figleaf of officially leaving the EU in March 2019, which ToH has clung to this morning. It makes the effective deadline for the divorce deal March 2019 and for the subsequent future relationship deal about October 2020.

    I would say that this is the point where the cabinet are implicitly recognising that they cannot negotiate when they don’t know or agree what they are negotiating for. Up to this point it has probably been worth negotiating to get some idea of what may be negotiable.

    So as you say, nothing to move the process forward, but since, to date, they have never had any real idea of what they wanted apart from all the benefits and none of the costs, there has never been any prospect of the process moving forward. But as I said, it is progress in that they have created space to begin avoiding jumping off the cliff. Expect Boris to hang around for a while and then to resign, howling betrayal once it becomes obvious that we will remain in the CU and the SM to address NI. I think this is already scripted. The government lack the guts to see through any serious brexit – what they are looking for is a minimum of a figleaf to claim that they have delivered on the referendum.

  15. BARBAZENZERO

    I think your all missing the point, which is the government is not moving from the principles laid down in May’s original speech but we “appear” to be bending over backwards to be nice to the EU. It’s all part of the negotiation and government positioning if the talks break down. Assuming the EU negotiaters do not move from their position we reach deadlock, but now more of the blame falls squarely on the EU IMO, certainly in the UK, which is what matters to the Government.
    The Tory press have been reasonably favourable and even the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg made the following comment:
    “Business nerves have been somewhat soothed by her promise of transition. And at least for today, the Tory party, riven with divisions over Europe, seems to (almost) be speaking as one.
    Whether that makes this truly a BIG SPEECH is for you to decide.
    Did it answer all the questions that Theresa May will need to answer if she stays in Number 10 during this long process? Far from it.
    But did it make a difference, not just to the talks, but to the politics at home? Yes indeed.”

  16. ST HOMAS @ ROBIN

    Alvis Brexiteer

    Good cars in their day, although I’m unaware of a Brexiteer model. Does re:smog have one?

    I didn’t understand your previous post addressed to me or what faux pas HIRETON had committed.

  17. Monochrome,

    “Remember that Boris has no sense of principle, only a sense of what serves Boris best at the time.”

    Well to pick up on one of my recurring themes my take is that Boris lacks “Emotional intelligence.”
    This is a view I have postulated (0ooh big word!) that some people approach Brexit from a more emotional stance than others.

    Both sides get frustrated by the EU but some can contain it and look beyond it while for others it just makes their blood boil.

    I think Boris is smart, but in some regards is emotionally, if not immature, then it just gets the better of him.

    So I see his “Bus” claim as him just Boris letting his frustrations get the better of him and firing off a “Why Oh why!” letter.

    I suspect he probably thinks better of it by now and yet again regrets it but then how often have we seen Boris do something that if he had calmed down and thought about it he would have sen to have been a bad move.

    Peter.

  18. S THOMAS

    “Posting of the panto season . are there any negotiations pencilled in for December.?”

    No, but we have a panto pencilled in at my theatre, the West Cliff in Clacton-on-Sea: Aladdin this year.

  19. Leaving with “no deal” is not leaving with “no relationship”.

    – Y’day May conceded that the security card was taken off the table (or at least back in hiding), so whole bunch of ongoing relationship there
    – Also certain joint projects would continue (TBA)
    – We are currently in EU and therefore all existing regulatory, law, etc is in place to continue all current trade (most trade deals, especially when it comes to services are quite strict on equivalent regulatory standards)

    Certainly defaulting to WTO would be a bumpy short-term ride as supply chains adjusted but on most items WTO tariffs are now v.low. Yes, the World outside the EU has been lowering trade barriers. We run a large trade deficit in goods – nations want to trade with UK. The purpose of a transition deal is to smooth the exit process, as shocking the process with no transition would create problems (it would however be a short-term boost to demand with a small “panic buying” increase in inventory levels and given the balance of goods trade with EU one that would financially be to UK’s advantage)

    A neat little web tool where you can see the WTO coverage is here:
    https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/statis_maps_e.htm

    I’ll hit the mod issue if I link to too many sites, but it is really worth investigating our trade balance in goods and services and considering where the future market opportunities are for the developed competitive advantages we have. UK is the global financial capital. If we mess up the exit, banks won’t be going to Frankfurt they will be going to NY, Singapore, Mumbai, Shanghai, etc. Europe has been a declining economic power since the 1940s, sped up considerably via end of communism, globalisation and technology – we need to accept that and carve a niche for ourselves in the c21 not be all nostalgic about how great the EEC used to be (EU didn’t start until 1992).

    The official Leave campaign was appalling – hijacked by xenophobic media and daft bus slogans. Remain was hardly a lesson in honesty either. A lot of that baggage still seems to exist (e.g. EU peace is due to EU!?! – one of DC’s most absurd comments).

    We are leaving, it is just a matter of how we leave. Polling shows only 27% of public are still hard core remain so the vast majority have accepted it. The burden falls on May/DD to deliver but if we mess this up, it will be a national tragedy – one which the younger generations will have the longest time to reflect upon in the years to come.

    The default situation is “no deal”. It’s one most leave would prefer wasn’t the way out but one that most leave would accept if the deal is truly horrific (IMO but quite a bit of poll evidence on the divorce bill, etc. supports that view)

    Sprinkle a few more IMOs in the middle as well :)

    P.S. Ongoing payments of 10bn/yr are roughly the same as ending tuition fees. I wouldn’t spend it all on tuition fees but it is important to benchmark the fee we pay to allow EU to continue with a large trade surplus of goods into UK.
    FWIW I’d bring back means tested maintenance grants (photocopy the way NI do it) and investigate value-for-money in university education.

  20. Okay folks, the doors are open…

    It’s which Panto or character best sums up Brexit and of course;

    It wouldn’t be YKPR without Puns…..

    OH Yes It Would!

    Peter.

  21. P.P.S. We should be able to conduct foreign policy (Brexit) at the same time as addressing domestic policy. I hope our govt addresses the large domestic issues we face. Sadly tackling the demographic time bomb has again been kicked down the road but plenty of other issues that voters clearly feel passionate about.

  22. I see the conservative love in didn’t last long
    https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-florence-speech-theresa-may-jacob-rees-mogg-conservative-tory-mps-eu-italy-a7962701.html%3famp
    Theresa May faces Brexit backlash from her own MPs protesting she is delaying full EU departure
    The Prime Minister was criticised over free movement, lawmaking and money, as EU warns the divorce bill will cost much more than the £18bn Ms May is now willing to pay

  23. THE OTHER HOWARD @ BZ

    more of the blame falls squarely on the EU IMO, certainly in the UK, which is what matters to the Government.

    I agree that that is how the right-wing press will sell it. How much the public believe is another matter. If you haven’t read it already, I do recommend your reading the FT link which Colin kindly provided earlier: What Theresa May said and what she meant.

    Whether the FT’s Alex Barker is correct or not, all May has done is to postpone the day of reckoning, I suspect.

    If HMG really do want a transitional deal, I think they will have to soften their position somewhat. Of course, it could be that they intend to do just that if May survives the Con conference.

  24. I see the conservative love in didn’t last long
    Theresa May faces Brexit backlash from her own MPs protesting she is delaying full EU departure

    The Prime Minister was criticised over free movement, lawmaking and money, as EU warns the divorce bill will cost much more than the £18bn Ms May is now willing to pay’

  25. @bz

    I committed no “faux pas” :) I simply placed the Legatum Insitiute in context as being almost wholly funded by the Legatum Foundation which in turn is wholly funded by an investment group based in Dubai and staffed in part by people with strong contacts to the Brexiters camp. A certain excitable poster got typically exercised about this. She apparently doesn’t have the capacity to do this sort of simple contextualization of opinions and evidence.

  26. @ PETER – Corbyn as the genie in Aladdin, he didn’t get a part in Brexit (yet?) but the LAB production is coming to a marginal seat near each of us very soon as the blockbuster national tour gets going again – grab your tickets before they sell out :)

    Reviews have been fantastic:
    Unite – 5stars. The momentum behind Corbyn’s production is fantastic. Huge hit with the youth, but something for the whole family to enjoy. You’ll be amazed at the way he can simply make money appear from nowhere! The use of real life money trees is inspiring but make sure to see the show soon as the trees look about to die.

    :) :) (better put 2 in in case people take that to serious!!) :) one more for luck!!

  27. Sorry duplicate

  28. Trevor,

    “Sadly tackling the demographic time bomb has again been kicked down the road.”

    Trying to cut immigration to the 10’s of thousands and making it harder for talent young people from the continent to live work and start families here isn’t kicking it down the road, it’s actively following a policy that will exasperating it!

    Peter.

  29. S THOMAS

    @”perhaps you ought to apply the Hireton bias test to your links?she writes no doubt from the entirely neutral University of Europe that well known hotbed of euro discontent !!!”

    From the UK faculty of the EU University I think-it has a small but vociferous cohort of enthusiastic spokespersons for the approved curriculum.

    Campus on line at UKPR Comments Section.

    I prefer the official spokespersons over the Channel-they aren’t sparing in their pronouncements about the EU’s Shining Citadel of Safety, Wisdom & Moral Superiority; and the fate which awaits any who leave its Inviolable Walls. And it always sounds more authentic with a French or German accent.

  30. “If we leave with no deal there will be economic damage to both the UK and the EU. German car manufacturers see this and want the talks to move on.”

    Ah, the BMW argument. Good to see an old chestnut being roasted again.

  31. Rangers 0-2 Celtic…….

    Well that’s made my day!

    Peter.

  32. may just seems to have parked a big dollop of fudge served on a large soggy waffle. can kicked down road, enough wriggle room to keep most of the party relatively calm over the conference.
    The EU has said “thats nice” whilst awaiting more detail.

    But it seems that when we get down to the detail – everything freezes up. There is no workable, non-controversial solution to issues like the NI border and eu citizens rights and the complexity of the legal and trade issues represents a vast cats cradle of interrelated elements which throws up multiple unintended consequences every time you try to unpick it.

    The government -with or without may – has simply not got the power or authority to force anything through.

    It seems to me that hard brexit is the only kind of brexit that makes sense – bascially rip it up and start again. It IS a revolution – and that will mean huge disruption, economic turmoil and a fair amount of suffering.

    I think we will end up heading towards the cliff edge and that will provoke a determined push back from the remainers (which – remember – includes most of parliament). This will be met by hard brexiters going ape.

    Whatever happens – things are going to break and it is going to get ugly.

  33. @martinl

    Are the procedures you describe only for non Belgians, Italians etc or simply requiring people moving there from other EU countries to comply with the requirements of the host country for its own citizens? If the latter, it would certainly be different in kind if the UK introduced a registration system only for EU citizens.

  34. HIRETON @ BZ

    We’re on the same wavelength here and especially re the Legatum Insitiute.

    Maybe it’s me, and I’m losing my command of newspeak, but I was unable to understand the meaning of the ST H post to me which mentioned you.

  35. Hireton,

    “Good to see an old chestnut being roasted again.”

    Fancy “Roasting” it again or has the fun gone out of it!

    Peter.

  36. @Robin

    “Actually, if S Thomas were to see your wisdom, that might actually be worthy of note.”

    It should be a matter of profound concern to anybody of sound mind and reasoned judgement.

  37. Neil J re ”Theresa May faces Brexit backlash from her own MPs protesting she is delaying full EU departure”

    I think the real reason for the GE to attempt to side-line 30-40 Tory MPs on either side is ever more apparent.

  38. “We are leaving, it is just a matter of how we leave. Polling shows only 27% of public are still hard core remain so the vast majority have accepted it. ”

    Only a similar proportion are hard core leave though. The awkward bit is when the other 40 something% don’t get the double cake they’ve been promised and appear to be expecting.

  39. “We are leaving, it is just a matter of how we leave. Polling shows only 27% of public are still hard core remain so the vast majority have accepted it. ”

    Only a similar proportion are hard core leave though. The awkward bit is when the other 40 something% don’t get the double cake they’ve been promised and appear to be expecting.

  40. Ugh, apologies, double post.

  41. A really interesting story from the BBC:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41349409

    and here is the link to their methodology:

    http://www.utdallas.edu/epps/hclarke/pdf/surveysmethodsLabourinternet.pdf

    It is more than just don’t know much about politics->Labour

    There are two distinct factors that are working in opposite directions: knowledge about politics (as defined by their responses to eight questions (listed in the methodology)) and principal source of information about politics (internet vs non-internet). It is not surprising that the posters here who are both internet-savvy and knowledgeable about politics show such a diverse range of opinions.

    The lesson that Labour need to learn is that ‘one more heave’ may not be enough. They have an advantage from having used social media much more effectively in the 2017 GE, but the longer until the next GE the more other parties will catch up. Also, the turnout amongst the 18-29 age group was 19% higher in 2017 compared with 2015. If this group changes back from being activated to being apathetic, then Labour could find themselves going backwards fast. If the next GE comes within 12 months as a result of the Government losing a vote of no confidence then they may lose little, but if it is in May 2022 there could be a big swing back to the Tories. A Labour party that is serious about forming the next government needs to start thinking about a ‘progressive alliance’ even if it is the informal Blair/Ashdown kind that brought such a big swing in 1997.

  42. Westminster voting intention:

    CON: 39% (-3)
    LAB: 38% (-1)
    LDEM: 8% (+1)
    UKIP: 6% (-)
    GRN: 4% (+1)

    via @BMGResearch, 12 – 15 Sep

  43. Hireton

    Barbazenzero

    Below is a link to an article on the potential of the progress of the Great Repeal Bill/Act (or whatever name it now bears) to stir things up in NI.

    https://ukconstitutionallaw.org/2017/06/06/colin-harvey-and-daniel-holder-the-great-repeal-bill-and-the-good-friday-agreement-cementing-a-stalemate-or-constitutional-collision-course/

    I would be inclined to view the actions of some members of the Legatum Institute as having potential for conflicts of interest. Maybe of interest to Professor Whyte et al. Earlier, up this thread I provided a link to the download of his book

  44. @ PETER – I agree completely that we need talented young people from the World. The xenophobic take-over of the Leave campaign disgusted me. However, I don’t think free movement of labour works when wage levels between areas within the free movement area are so wide apart. This is a “socialist heart” view as explained here:

    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/paul-embery/freedom-of-movement_b_13112058.html

    “commodification of workers is very popular with big business, enabling, as it does, bosses to take advantage of highly-diverse economies by shunting workers across borders and playing them off against each other, thus driving down wages”

    Canada took some issue with this in the CETA negotiations.

    Of all the ironies of Brexit, the partisan split on who is championing free movement of labour is definitely top3 (the age demographic continues to baffle me and is #1 – IMO).

    Before the GE the attraction of UKIPs 12.6% 2015 vote share was obviously tactically appealing but strategically foolish. May is now boxed into an absurd target that she never tried to get close to as HS.

    There are ample current EU rules to tighten up on immigration if we really wanted to (rules that earlier posters highlighted the likes of Belgium, Spain, Swiss, Hungary, etc bend pretty hard).

    I had always hoped free movement would be the one red line we’d drop in negotiations in order to find compromise.
    Unemployment is 4.3%, which despite BoE change is below NAIRU (IMO). Putting my capitalist head back on, we need more labour and at least in the short-term the EU provides that. The pick-up in EU growth, drop in £ and obviously the uncertainty is encouraging very valued EU workers back home – the economic factors are understandable but removing the “Welcome” mat was a political decision and I’d agree that was the wrong decision.

  45. Fintan O’Toole says the Brexiters are logical but not rational and the “sensible compromisers” are rational but not logical.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/opinion/fintan-o-toole-britain-must-accept-ambiguity-to-survive-brexit-1.3230569

  46. @ JAMES B – ??

    Thinking about EU ref do you:
    core leave 45%
    accept leave 19%

    subtotal 64%

    hard core remain 27%

    I paraphrased the wording slightly, you can get the info here:
    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/p1rr6fyihi/InternalResults_LibDems_W.pdf

    I’m interested which poll shows hard core leave as low as hard core remain, maybe its something in the labels or xbreaks? – please could you post the link or analysis. Thx

    A good write up on Brexit Extremism is here, quite disturbing that the Project F-word concern is still so prevalent in remain:
    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/08/01/britain-nation-brexit-extremists/

  47. Princess Rachel
    LD surge?

  48. Sorry
    Can’t be LD surge cos the fieldwork is quite old. And of course it’s BMG.

  49. Trevor Warne
    Thanks for the betting advice from last night, I’ve only just got back in from getting out more. I think I will stick to spot bets on individual constituencies, that worked the last time. Stroud, Bedford, Canterbury and Labour taking all four Brissle seats as I recall. Oh and a tenner on No Overall majority.

  50. For those interested in Irish Politics a new poll from the reputable RedC company. What is interesting is that the top two are holding their grip:

    FG30(+3) FF 26(+2) SF 16 (-2) Inds 10(+2) Lab5(-1) SocDems 4(+2) Sol-PBP 4(=) Greens 2(-2) Ind All 2(-2) Renua 1(-2)

    Loosely FG are like pro-Euro conservatives , FF are centrist-nationalist, and SF are … well you know about them I guess.

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