Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor has topline figures of CON 40%(-1), LAB 44%(+2), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 2%(-1). Fieldwork was over the weekend and changes are from July.

Leader satisfaction ratings are May minus 17, Corbyn minus 3 and Cable minus 1. While Vince Cable has the least negative net rating, this is because he has far higher don’t knows than the other two leaders (39% compared to 10%) rather than any great surge of “pro-Vince” feeling. MORI also asked some more detailed questions about perceptions of the leaders’ qualities, underlining the collapse in perceptions of May’s and the rehabilitation of Jeremy Corbyn since last year. In September 2016 Theresa May had better ratings on almost everything (the sole exception was being marginally more likely to be seen as more style than substance). Now there are obvious areas where the two leaders outshine each other – May is still more likely to be seen as a capable leader, good in a crisis (though her leads are vastly reduced – in 2016 she beat Corbyn by 44 points on being a capable leader, now it’s only 7 points), but Corbyn now has strong leads on personality and honesty, and is much less likely to be seen as out of touch.

MORI also repeated their regular question comparing the popularity of leaders and their parties – do respondents like the leader and party, the leader but not their party, the party but not its leader, or neither of them? 46% of people said they liked Jeremy Corbyn (up 9 since last year), putting him eight points behind Labour on 54% (up 8) – that means both Corbyn and Labour have become more popular, but Corbyn continues to be less popular than his party. Compare this with the Conservatives: a year ago Theresa May vastly outshone her party, by 60% to 38%. That gap has now vanished – the Conservative party is still only liked by 38%, but Theresa May is now on the same figure, down by 22 points (At the risk of pointing out the obvious, note how much stronger the Labour brand remains than the Conservative party – while they may not vote for them, most people have a broadly positive perception of the Labour party, far more than can be said for the Tories). Full tabs are here

There was also a poll by Opinium at the weekend, which had movement in the opposition direction. Their topline figures were CON 41%(+1), LAB 41%(-2), LDEM 5%(-1), UKIP 5%(+1). Looking at the broader picture, the polls still appear to be clustered around a very small lead for the Labour party. Tabs for Opinium are here.


308 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 40, LAB 44, LDEM 9”

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  1. Apart from the acceptance of/request for the “implementation” period I thought the most interesting comments were in respect of those factors which might be considered potential points of negotiating leverage for UK:-

    Our Security & Defence contribution to EU.:-

    She has taken this off the negotiating table-Will be unconditionally available & In answer to Newton Dunn-too important to be a “bargaining” chip.

    Our Financial Payment.:-

    The words are important :-
    “Some of the claims made on this issue are exaggerated and unhelpful and we can only resolve this as part of the settlement of all the issues I have been talking about today.
    Still I do not want our partners to fear that they will need to pay more or receive less over the remainder of the current budget plan as a result of our decision to leave. The UK will honour commitments we have made during the period of our membership. ”
    My translation-some of the items on Barnier’s list are over the top & we ain’t paying.
    Barnier constantly refers to “commitments made at 28”. May sort of acknowledges that in her last para-and concedes that it includes Budget contributions for the whole of the 2014/2020 Budget cycle. What she hasn’t mentioned & therefore hasn’t specifically conceded as a “commitment during our period of membership “is Reste a Liquider-committments made by Brussels for projects on infrastructure/social cohesion etc to be funded by Budgets after 2020.
    This IS in Barnier’s list.because he sees it as a commitment to which UK was a party. Member States will have started some of these projects and expect to be refunded after 2020.The total unfunded “liability” is around £250bn. Our contribution would be £30bn to £40bn.

    By referring to “the remainder of the current budget plan” May excludes it from her financial offer.

    This , imo, is now our biggest bargaining chip. We will probably have to contribute something to RAL-depending on what we get on Trade.

  2. ………………….May has , of course, also indicated that we expect to pay for membership of specific co-operative institutions / Projects :-

    “And as we move forwards, we will also want to continue working together in ways that promote the long-term economic development of our continent. This includes continuing to take part in those specific policies and programmes which are greatly to the UK and the EU’s joint advantage, such as those that promote science, education and culture – and those that promote our mutual security. And as I set out in my speech at Lancaster House, in doing so, we would want to make an ongoing contribution to cover our fair share of the costs involved. “

  3. @ PTRP – “One question I did have for leavers is what is wrong with the CETA deal?”

    CETA is a bespoke deal between Canada and EU that has an enormous amount of bespoke fine detail that took 7yrs to hammer out. Lots of bespoke!! Some issues in CETA that LAB or Remain don’t really like i suspect.

    Photocopying CETA is meaningless – we have completely different trading needs to Canada.

    The principle behind CETA (or a “Canada” deal however, is better than Norway (IMHO). For starters no payment. Although passporting is not covered for services, we could rely partially on equivalence. However, we’d still be spending a lot of time negotiating the quotas and details. Very time consuming and May/I hope we can do better.

    Some people might slightly shuffle the order around and certainly move the “no deal” threshold higher or lower but my view is (from best to worse):

    1. Swiss++
    2. Swiss
    3. *** No Deal *** (where I’d walk)
    4. something similar to Canada
    5. Norway
    6. stop negotiating to leave and try to rejoin
    7. Turkey

    That is final deal of course, for transition it now looks like we’ll get Norway (or nothing). Norway is the simplest model to copy and I’d even suggest the transition May offered is a Norway- deal (worse than Norway). Adjusting for GDP/capita and bit of fag packet maths means we’d pay around 4bn for a Norway deal (not the full 10bn that seems to have been offered) – just for transition though.

    One of the reasons May has been visiting likes of Canada is probably to let them know we’d like to revisit their current EU deal – there is a lot in CETA that both UK and Canada would want to change we’d photocopy say 90% but tweak 10%.

    Every trade deal is bespoke. Don’t be alarmed by May/DD referring to “bespoke” the whole time. Even if we copy 99.99% of “Norway” the deal would still be “bespoke”.

    When considering the option of “no deal” it is important (IMHO) to consider how much 50bn or so would help the needy cases you have pointed out. Hence I’ve always said paying 100bn to end up with Norway deal would be horrific.

  4. TREVOR WARNE

    @”there is a lot in CETA that both UK and Canada would want to change we’d photocopy say 90% but tweak 10%.”

    Yep-I watched the May/Trideau Press Conference from Canada.

    The both stated that CETA would be the “basis” of a Canada/UK FTA after Brexit.

  5. @ COLIN – great post on last page. We do have some assets though. The “unfunded” liabilities need to net with assets (many of which are not exactly liquid).I’ll be unhappy if that can is kicked down the road. Once we are in “transition” EU have little incentive to agree on anything.
    The phrase “lost in transition” has been hacked but I think that is exactly where the EU want us and May might be too scared to resist falling into that trap.

  6. @Trevorwarne

    “…there is a lot in CETA that both UK and Canada would want to change we’d photocopy say 90% but tweak 10%.”

    How can there be a lot to change when you intend to photocopy 90% and only tweak 10%? Perhaps you could give examples of the changes which both the UK and Canada want to change?

  7. TREVOR WARNE

    We won’t be in transition unless the gulf between Barnier ( there are two models only available-Norway & Switzerland) -and May( Norway & Switzerland are not appropriate for UK-we want something bespoke) -is bridged.

    …..and of course we won’t even be talking about how to bridge it if Barnier sticks to his demand for a committment to contribute to RAL ( and other items) .

  8. The Government’s handling of Brexit has been hopeless. It’s been obvious for many months that they were utterly clueless. It has taken them 15 months to reach this position. It should have taken half that time.

    I do wonder whether this two year extension will be extended again and then again and in the end we do not actually leave.
    Yet we were told by fools like Fox and Johnson that Brexit would be so easy and pain free. Utter nonsense of course.

  9. MIKE PEARCE

    You forgot IMO in your last post.

  10. THEEXTERMINATINGDALEK

    I was just reporting what was said on the BBC news re Tory reaction.

    Chris Riley

    It was a super match but unfortunate for two participants as not only Haseeb but Roland-Jones seem likely to miss the Australian Tour. Roland-Jones has a stress fracture of the lower back.

  11. Passtherockplease,
    “. It is as if the Tories cannot agree amongst themselves what they want for fear of hurting the economy and then losing the next election. If there is to be a downside we might as well get it over with at this point people will make decision based on what they think will happen. ”

    Except that electorally uncertainty allows everyone hope.

  12. ToH

    No I didn’t. It’s obviously my opinion so I see no need in stating the bleedin’ obvious.

  13. @ HIRETON – I’m in the pub. Try google. Suggest search terms such as “CETA quota schedule” or similar. Quite a lot on cars, agriculture, etc. from what I remember. Even if you pick up a EU propo piece then you’ll still find quite a lot of sectors that are a long way from “free” trade. The “services” part is IMHO pathetic. 7yrs for a cr4p deal from UK perspective – awesome for countries that want to protect certain sectors and don’t care about services.

    90% photocopy/10% tweak is for illustration purposes (ie a guess)

    What have you got against photocopiers? Do you want the green version – “cut+paste” or do you think we just ignore the fact the wheel has been invented and try and invent a new one from scratch, by ourselves, for each and every country?!?!?

  14. MIKE PEARCE

    I’m happy that you have confirmed it was just your opinion. There are many who disagree with you.

  15. MIKE PEARCE

    I do wonder whether this two year extension will be extended again and then again and in the end we do not actually leave.

    We’ll get a clue when the compulsory purchase orders are issued to turn Thanet into a truck park.

  16. Brexit is likely to die at some point during 2018. Even Tim Martin of Wetherspoons, who is a passionate Brexiteer is now saying that Brexit probably won’t happen.

    I won’t go back over reasons for my view on Brexit being unlikely, to save repeating previous comments.

    If you read around what many people are saying online, Theresa May has today made it more difficult for many Tories to get behind her. I think the Tory party conference in a few weeks, will see a lot of backlack from Brexiteers. The Brexit supporting media will now be looking to encourage a Tory leadership contest.

    What Theresa May will be hoping is that the EU and other EU country leaders make statements welcoming her speech. I am not sure there will be such supportive statements, given that negotiations are currently ongoing. The EU is probably better at playing political games than UK ministers. They are not blind to the UK political difficulties and will look to take advantage.

  17. ToH

    Of course and you will be one of them. It’s a messageboard. What I have said is an opinion and not necessarily fact but do you really believe the Government have any idea what they are doing?

  18. TOH
    Fair enough, although we may have heard different reports, or interpreted them differently. What I heard, or interpreted, was that a speech written off as not a game changer about two minutes after it was announced, that has riven the cabinet and the Tory party for days on end, has been delivered and that genie bozza, firmly for the moment back in his bottle hasn’t yet jumped out to say that he disagrees with it, even though no-one would or will believe him whatever side he alights on. The news continues to be the leadership challenge, and the momentum behind it now appears to be such that there is nothing TM can do or say to steer media interest towards brexit or anything else. If I were to be polled on the subject I would expect her to be gone within the month. It feels like the last days of IDS all over again.

    Imo, of course

  19. MIKE PEARCE “What I have said is an opinion and not necessarily fact but do you really believe the Government have any idea what they are doing?”

    It’s quite hard as a matter of principle to judge negotiating tactics without either knowing the end objective or seeing how closely they get to achieving it in the end.

    Doubly so in a political negotiation where most of the first 90% of the period (on all sides) is inevitably taken up with posturing for your domestic political audience.

    I’m not really sure what the government is trying to achieve, and nor for that matter do I have a clear idea what the EU27s desired end point might be. There’s too much nonsense still to pull the isolated pearls of wisdom out, and may well be for a while yet.

    But there are some end points for both sides that are such that their respective current tactics make perfect sense, some end points that make their current tactics good politics but risky strategically, and some end points that make their current tactics mad.

    I’m cynical enough about politicians to think the last should not be ruled out, but not so cynical as to assume it.

    What I am also cynical about though is that the partisan here can always be relied upon to assume that “their team” is playing a blinder but “the other mob” is a shambles.

    More likely at present is that both sides are just currently playing to their respective galleries. Expect up to 12 months more of this facile bombast, 6 months of brinkmanship, 48 hours of desperate diplomacy. That’s how EU negotiations always work after all. Scary when it’s such a big deal, but twas ever thus unfortunately.

    For now, best to ignore them, or you’ll only encourage them. When the 48 hours is done we might be able see who played the cards right (though even then I can guess what most on here will say already, “their guy” won hands down of course).

  20. No deal

  21. Lis H

    From that article “his two closest aides, Karie Murphy and Seumas Milne – who had popped into the corner shop on the way to pick up some bottles of Peroni”

    I know that the booze companies sent cases of Peroni to SLab and SCon MSPs as a thanks for voting against minimum unit pricing, but that was long before Kez was even deputy leader! :-)

  22. Laszlo

    “I suppose the Norwegian solution doesn’t refer to the 1tn dollar sovereign fund ”

    Just think – the UK could have had that (an indy Scotland certainly would have, if the Scots hadn’t decided to sent the revenues to Westminster) if the Brits hadn’t voted for really stupid governments of both English based parties who thought a one-off windfall was just part of current revenue. Idiots!

  23. Interesting that Verhofstadt is telling us that the UK cant implement new registration procedures for EU workers during the transition period.

    In Belgium you have to register at the Town Hall (Gemeentethuis) for an identity card and jump through endless hoops before you can do anything. Spain has lengthy registration procedures and Italy is even more complicated in my experience. Colleagues/relatives living and working in Germany and France tell me the paperwork in those countries is even more complex. The UK is pretty much the softest touch of all on paperwork and registration requirements within Europe and here is Verhofstadt telling us that we cant implement new procedures. Even within the EU the internal registration requirements comes under domestic regulations and so quite frankly he is bang out of order.

  24. The Save Uber petition has over 300k signatures already.

  25. Is there any meaningful difference apart from 2 years in stead of 3 between this and what Kier Starmer suggested a few weeks ago.

    Indeed Starmer has been advocating a transition or interim deal since September 2016 but it has took the PM a year longer to reach this conclusion; at least in public as I reckon her and Davis have known this for a long time but had to get the cabinet and most Tory leavers on side.

    I have believed for a long time that Lab and Cons (in the end) would have little of substance to divide them regarding a transition but that differences would emerge during the transition period.

    The next GE could take place before a final deal is concluded even if it last the full term?

  26. MARTINL

    @”so quite frankly he is bang out of order.”

    He;s head of the Punishment Squad on their team.-and represents the European Parliament.

    Guess what they are going to say about the final agreement when they are asked .

  27. “Still looks like a load of ferrets fighting in a bloke down the pub’s trousers to me, as indeed it has done since DC woke up one morning and thought that having a referendum would be a spiffing idea.”
    @theexterminatingdalek September 22nd, 2017 at 7:07 pm

    Well DC lit the touch paper, turned on the timer, and did a runner and is probably down the pub wondering what that itching feeling is.

    Today is the first day I really think I have seen the future. We leave the EU so cannot influence what and where they are going. But we are still really close, abiding by the 4 freedoms and paying for the priviledge. Not much is going to change the Leavers’ minds. Those that think this is God’s country, and that the English are a breed apart will not change their minds. The free-traders will still have that strongly held belief.

    The Leavers that think this country is crap will not see anything change, and so will have no motivation to change their mind.

    By 2021, at then end of the two year ‘transition,’ we will be in the same place as now. But one year away from the next GE (ceteris paribus). If it is so difficult to get off the fence now, it will be even harder then. The can will be booted over the GE — 2023?

    Seven years of demographic change will presumably continue to tilt in favour of continuation of the ‘transition.’ Plus I expect the banking union to be continuing apace. But the German automakers will still want to beat a path to our door, or will they?

    German Auto Giants Face an Existential Challenge
    http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/tesla-german-auto-giants-face-a-new-electric-rival-a-1167633.html
    BMW, Daimler and Volkswagen have been struggling to adapt to the advent of the electric car, held back by conservatism and internal challenges. Now, Tesla is making inroads in Germany — and the country’s automakers face an uncertain future.

    A stronger more integrated EU, and Leave incapable of pushing us out; my prediction is Brexit is already waning.

  28. So as best I understand it, TM has, for many purposes at least, proposed delaying exiting the EU for about two years.

    A couple of questions:

    1) Are we going to have to endure an extra two years of Brexit dominating the news and comments sections on every article (no matter how losely connected to Brexit)? Thus swamping important stuff (music, cricket, etc).

    2) Are the Brexit champagne parties going to have to be rescheduled from March 2019 to some time in 2021?

    I’m starting to think the best option is indeed to crash out with no deal, if only to stop the incessant speculation.

  29. From what I’ve read, the remainers strategy is to string out the transition period until the mid-2020s, and then have another referendum on whether to accept leaving on whatever terms have been agreed, or remaining in the EU on the current terms. Their general hope being that by then demographics will have shifted in their favour as many of the elderly leave voters won’t be around by then.

    I’ve no idea how practical this is, but I read it here: https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/brexit/2017/08/hopes-anti-brexit-party-are-illusory-remainers-have-new-plan-stay-eu

  30. EU

    i think you need to read the speech again. The uk will be leaving the EU and customs union on the 29th of March. To do otherewise would require the consent of the 27 which is not proposed.

    in the implementation period we will have access akin to being in the single market but not in it.

    Brexit is not therefore postponed but reconfirmed. Remainers ought also. to be rejoicing with the prospect of more UK money going to the EU and the mighty ECJ still in at least partial control.Happy days.

    Politically we will have left the EU before the final new trade deal. Difficult in those circumstances to vote against the new deal as we will already have left.

  31. Trevor Warne
    Thanks for the gambling info, I’ve just got in from getting out more.
    I’ll probably stick to doing spot constituency bets, Stroud, Bedford, Canterbury and predicting Labour to win all four Bristol seats did well last time. Oh and a tenner on no overall majority.

  32. COLIN & MARTINL

    Verhofstadt is doing his best to be the opposite of a “Punishment Squad” but rather is concerned that the registration will only be for foreigners.

    The EU states I have lived in have registration systems for all residents, not just foreigners. May seems to want it only for non-CTA EU citizens.

  33. COLIN & MARTINL

    Verhofstadt is doing his best to be the opposite of a “Punishment Squad” but rather is concerned that the registration will only be for foreigners.

    The EU states I have lived in have registration systems for all residents, not just foreigners. May seems to want it only for non-CTA EU citizens.

  34. Yes S Thomas is right as I understand it, the negotiations will be complete during a transition period (interim perhaps) after we have left end March 2019.

    Remainers seeking the UK to be in the EU after March 2019 would then be re-joiners as ToH likes to call them.

    What this does not settle, though, is the interminable debate about SM/CU special access or pseudo membership, Swiss, Norwegian,Canadian, Reverse Greenland (my favourite sounding even though I have no idea what it means) Bespoke and so on.

    This is where the real debate (even argument) centres; what relationship will we have with the EU27 in 2023/4 and what agreements regarding what level of (if any) free movement will be in place.

  35. Jim Jam

    “Reverse Greenland” would not be an option for E&W, which are the largest part of the UK.

    Greenland is part of the Kingdom of Denmark (which, unlike the UK, respects its minority polities). By agreement of both Denmark and the EU, Greenland is not part of the EU, although the Kingdom of Denmark is.

    A “Reverse Greenland” could only apply to Scotland and/or NI, whereby they would remain part of the EU, although the UK had sailed off into different waters.

    Of course, as the UK is much more like Spain than Denmark, it won’t happen.

  36. ‘Reverse Greenland’ sounds like a bidding convention in bridge, or possibly an obscure chess opening.

    G’night all.

  37. Didn’t watch, and haven’t read, May’s Florentian chat, but my Twitter feed is dominated by a single phrase that she apparently used – “We never felt at home in the European Union”:

    That seems an appallingly arrogant statement to make, from the PM of a state that only narrowly voted to leave the EU.

    Since 62% of Scots voted to remain, most of us felt reasonably at home in the EU – and many don’t particularly feel “at home” in the set-up of the UK.

    If she just meant the Tory Party, and not the people of the UK, she should have made that clear.

    “We” think she is an idiot,

  38. Pete B

    Of course, your moniker sounds like 2nd grade peat, so perhaps you should be more charitable about the many things you don’t understand. :-)

    Have pleasant dreams.

  39. Predicting a Perth & Kinross council by-election in the near future.

  40. Moody’s downgrades UK credit rating.

    Not my area of expertise, but I assume that this isn’t good news for the UK – though it may be for competitor countries.

    https://m.moodys.com/Research.html?docid=PR_372649

  41. Statgeek

    Would that be the Tory paedophile councillor?

  42. @Oldnat

    I couldn’t possibly comment publicly on specifics on legal matters, but I can make wild generalised predictions on almost anything. ;)

  43. GREAML

    I think that’s a flawed strategy. Yes elderly Brexiteers May have died off but more middle aged people will have moved into the elderly category and may have switched from Remain to Brexit. I just don’t see it making any real difference.
    One of Cameron’s failings was not to include 16 and 17 year olds in the Referendum.

  44. @Mike Pearce

    Not to mention Europeans living in the UK. Taxation without representation, indeed. It would have very different.

    Had Scotland taken the same route (Scots born only), it would have been a Yes vote, with Scotland being accused of holding an anti-democratic referendum etc.

  45. STATGEEK

    Yes absolutely. In Cameron’s defence it could be argued that if 16 year olds were allowed to vote in a Referendum then why not in a General Election which would clearly be advantageous to Labour.

    One of the many issues I have over the Referendum and Brexit is that it is first and foremost about the divides within the Tory Party and remains so even today. Party before country.

  46. R HUCKLE
    ” The EU is probably better at playing political games than UK ministers.”
    Yes, the trick is to hold a hand which consists of managing a treaty and reality based trading, human resource, cultural, rights, judicial and security systems based on the assets and relationships of 27 sovereign nations and the working councils, civil service and parliamentary structure to operate it in consultation with the concerned governments. That gives you an advantage over a self-proclaimed adversary whose revealed hand is that of an offered treaty which is as yet undrafted and of which both concept and critical aspects, such as its trading structure,financial basis, boundaries citizenship and entry rights of a migrant work force are undefined, are the subject of active dispute within the governing party, and untested in any parliamentary scrutiny or agreement in regional governments.

    JIM JAM
    The difference in proposals for a transition (a transition being a transition) is the stated end-purpose, which in the case of Labour as stated by Starmer and now,, it seems, firmly agreed across the Party, and probably by the other opposition parties and regional governments, is that of continued membership of the Customs Union and access to the Single Market permitting the movement of EU labour governed only by a monitored and regulated basis of employment.

  47. Welcome, by the way, to the quiet of night over the Pentlands, broken only by the sub-aural electrical tini tis of the house and distant drone of trucks from the North moving through the sweeping angel wings of the new Forth Road Bridge and southward to Carlisle.

  48. Jacob Rees-Mogg is one Conservative certainly not happy with it

    http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/857…ervative-party
    “The third point that concerns me is that it has not been made clear whether in this implementation period we will still be subject to the European Court of Justice.
    Following Mrs May’s address, the Member of Parliament for North East Somerset also expressed concern over free movement, arguing that it “ought to end at the end of March 2019” before questioning the Home Office’s competence.
    Mr Rees-Mogg also said he was concerned about Mrs May promising a sizeable divorce fee at this point in the negotiation process.
    He said: “The other area I am concerned about is that we should be promising money before we know the other side of the deal.’

    I think May is in for a lot of turbulence in the weeks ahead

  49. @BARBAZENZERO

    “Verhofstadt is doing his best to be the opposite of a “Punishment Squad” but rather is concerned that the registration will only be for foreigners.

    The EU states I have lived in have registration systems for all residents, not just foreigners. May seems to want it only for non-CTA EU citizens.”

    Sorry Barbazenzero, what you are saying is simply not accurate. Take Spain for example. See the gov.uk website link below which further links to the spanish government website.

    https://www.gov.uk/guidance/residency-requirements-in-spain

    “From 28 March 2007, Royal Decree 240/07 requires that all EU citizens planning to reside in Spain for more than 3 months should register in person at the Oficina de Extranjeros in their province of residence or at designated Police stations. You will be issued a credit card size Residence Certificate stating your name, address, nationality, NIE number (Número de Identificación Extranjero) and date of registration. After five years residence registration you are entitled to apply for a certificate of permanent residence in Spain.”

    A “Número de Identificación Extranjero” is a registration number of a foreigner. They even have dedicated offices (“Oficina de Extranjeros”) to deal with this. It does not apply to Spanish citizens.

    Even EU students moving to Spain temporarily on the Erasmus scheme have to jump through these hoops of registration. Italy is similar. Similar registration is common throughout the EU but varies from country to country.

    Verhofstadt is suggesting that it is OK for Spain and others to do this but the UK cannot. Bizarre.

  50. @ John Pilgrim

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-41369600

    French President Macron responds to Theresa May saying more detail is needed on the current issues under discussion, before future trade relationship can be negotiated.

    It seems to me that Theresa May has not authorised David Davis to discuss how an exit bill to the EU will be calculated. The Tories don’t appear to believe there is any exit bill, so see no reason to come up with a method of calculating it. At the last UK/EU meeting the UK simply stated that the UK has no legal requirement to pay any exit bill. If the UK maintains its position, then the EU won’t move on to discuss trade. Theresa Mays speech was about payment to EU during transition and not exit fee.

    The Irish border issue won’t be resolved, because of the complication of customs issue in the long run. DUP won’t support a hard border between N.Ireland/Ireland and the UK, which will probably be required if the UK does not negotiate being in the EU customs area.

    In regard to EU citizens in the UK, i don’t think the EU will accept the UK Supreme court being the highest court, even if the Supreme court applies EU law. The EU won’t be satisfied, unless there is a lot more legal clarity on the rights of EU citizens living in the UK. At this stage, i am not sure agreement will be reached, if the UK does not agree to an extra layer above UK Supreme court.

    Those who believe that Brexit will definitely happen because of over 17 million votes in a referendum and that A.50 means no going back, are going to be shocked about what is going to happen during 2018. Brexit should only be stopped by a further democratic vote and i think there will be such an opportunity during 2018.

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