Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor has topline figures of CON 40%(-1), LAB 44%(+2), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 2%(-1). Fieldwork was over the weekend and changes are from July.

Leader satisfaction ratings are May minus 17, Corbyn minus 3 and Cable minus 1. While Vince Cable has the least negative net rating, this is because he has far higher don’t knows than the other two leaders (39% compared to 10%) rather than any great surge of “pro-Vince” feeling. MORI also asked some more detailed questions about perceptions of the leaders’ qualities, underlining the collapse in perceptions of May’s and the rehabilitation of Jeremy Corbyn since last year. In September 2016 Theresa May had better ratings on almost everything (the sole exception was being marginally more likely to be seen as more style than substance). Now there are obvious areas where the two leaders outshine each other – May is still more likely to be seen as a capable leader, good in a crisis (though her leads are vastly reduced – in 2016 she beat Corbyn by 44 points on being a capable leader, now it’s only 7 points), but Corbyn now has strong leads on personality and honesty, and is much less likely to be seen as out of touch.

MORI also repeated their regular question comparing the popularity of leaders and their parties – do respondents like the leader and party, the leader but not their party, the party but not its leader, or neither of them? 46% of people said they liked Jeremy Corbyn (up 9 since last year), putting him eight points behind Labour on 54% (up 8) – that means both Corbyn and Labour have become more popular, but Corbyn continues to be less popular than his party. Compare this with the Conservatives: a year ago Theresa May vastly outshone her party, by 60% to 38%. That gap has now vanished – the Conservative party is still only liked by 38%, but Theresa May is now on the same figure, down by 22 points (At the risk of pointing out the obvious, note how much stronger the Labour brand remains than the Conservative party – while they may not vote for them, most people have a broadly positive perception of the Labour party, far more than can be said for the Tories). Full tabs are here

There was also a poll by Opinium at the weekend, which had movement in the opposition direction. Their topline figures were CON 41%(+1), LAB 41%(-2), LDEM 5%(-1), UKIP 5%(+1). Looking at the broader picture, the polls still appear to be clustered around a very small lead for the Labour party. Tabs for Opinium are here.


308 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 40, LAB 44, LDEM 9”

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  1. TW
    If Nige brings the UKIP out of the cryogenic storage pod he has put them in,* then first in the queue to speculate on how much damage this will do to the red team, will be T Warne esq. IMO of course.

    * Only Nige can resurrect the UKIP

  2. @ RJW – cheers, you just got me a tenner! I bet on less than 5mins!!

  3. TW
    Glad to hear you won something, after ridiculing your own betting advice on the GE.
    Any tips for the 3.20 at Kempton Park?

    (Is it quick enough for another tenner?)

  4. @ RJW – if there is a horse called momentum then I’m sure you’ll be riding it and be betting on yourself, although I’m not sure Paddy Power will give you 3x10quid free bets :)

  5. Trevor,
    I was merely replying to Tony Ebert
    Of course local by-elections have little relationship to GE voting intention or Brexit, although turnout is not the main reason for that..

  6. Toby:
    Sorry my phone just turned you into a Tony!

  7. @LizH

    Sorry to go off topic but I thought this article was interesting and maybe gives a clue as to why Kezia Dugdale resigned

    You may be right on that.

    @TW

    Are we starting to see the start of ABL?

    I think there was a fair bit of ABC(orbyn) in the last election tbh. Anecdotally I know a number of former Labour voters who switched sides – one who was from a Glaswegian wc background who has voted Labour all their life. However in the last GE their were strong forces operating in the other direction.

    However as we all know predictions about the next elections are out of fashion and its in vogue to say no one can tell what will happen.

  8. LizH, thanks for that interesting read, I agree with your hunch.

    Trev.

    ” In Internet slang, a troll (/?tro?l/, /?tr?l/) is a person who sows discord on the Internet by starting quarrels or upsetting people, by posting inflammatory,[1] extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog) with the intent of provoking readers into an emotional response[2] or of otherwise disrupting normal, on-topic discussion,[3] often for the troll’s amusement.”

    Many of us are afflicted with temptation Trev, my weakness is election time when I get modded ++

  9. @ REDRICH – but we do know the past and LAB won 3 seats in Greater Glasgow on ABS(np) tactical vote. Of course always going to a bit of 2-way hence it is the net difference and actual results that counts. Facts don’t need anecdotes.

    @ ANDREW111 – apologies, Chesterfield was 32% turnout, more than double the turnout that re-elected Len McCluskey. Hopefully also no intimidation tactics in the Chesterfield LE :)

  10. TW
    Now you’re talking, although I’m a bit long in the tooth for Momentum, more like the middle aged middle class folk who Nick Cohen identified as having taken over grass roots Labour in an article in last week’s Observer. I think he’s on to something. Record numbers of foot soldiers waiting patiently for the next election.

  11. Peter Cairns SNP

    “Don’t Post Again for 13year!!!!”

    Would you agree to do the same?

    :-)

  12. RJW/MARKW – I enjoy the banter. I’m sorry if I’ve ever caused offence. I usually put a :) at the end of a comment that is meant to be in jest (might have missed the odd one). Corbyn is on permanent election footing, understandable given the slim majority in HoC and the contentious Brexit process. That means those with a political interest (be it Brexit, or CON/LAB) are going to be tuned in to polls, comments, etc and those will, by their nature get heated at times.

    Enjoy your afternoons, looks like the show is over from May so wrapping up early today and out to enjoy the fine Autumn weather.

  13. Good god May drop a nothing burger of fudge and delay………….
    I suspect no one is happy EU/UK citizens do not get to keep their rights that they have now. We postpone the cliff edge because well we have no idea how to get to a final deal.

    We will will share our security, like we are doing really well in that with the attacks that are happening on our soil. I am not sure that anyone would be happy with this.

    it would have been better that she said it is going to hurt both sides but we cannot agree rather than keep sayign to the EU come up with somethign to save my arse since the electorate have given me a hospital pass twice now and I have no clue how to tell them leaving is going to hurt.

  14. Delighted to see “no deal is better than a bad deal again from May. As I suspected nothing has really changed in the governments approach to Brexit. It remains my view that the most likely outcome is leaving without a deal.

  15. “An excellent speech from the PM in Florence – delivering on the wishes of the British people” – Michael Gove

    Who the hell would wish this pig’s ear on anyone!

  16. B&B

    The 52% who voted to leave the EU perhaps?

  17. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    I believe that there has been a change, she has kicked the can down the road. We will not be leaving the EU before 2021 now and there is no real agreement on what leaving really means other than it has to be creative. If we are leaving the EU then we should have been preparing for this if it is to WTO rules then fine, the question is how does this work, why are we not preparing for it. All I can see is fudge here. It is as if the Tories cannot agree amongst themselves what they want for fear of hurting the economy and then losing the next election. If there is to be a downside we might as well get it over with at this point people will make decision based on what they think will happen.

    At some point we have to bite the bullet. There is nothing in this speech that solves that. There is nothign about the obligations and what we believe they will be it was a waste of time and in many ways hardly worth the time it took to say.

    Nobody was going not to have a transitional period but the reality is not the transitional period but transitioning to what and to my mind that has not created clarity at all.

    I think we are still negotiating with ourselves and navel gazing and hoping that someone in the EU will rescue us from ourselves

  18. TOH, not sure I would have had you down for a transition period accepting EU law and free movement, ongoing payments to the EU, EC influence on UK law etc etc. I’m pleased for you if this is what you had in mind in the voting booth though.

    My point is that the government are working carefully and methodically towards a solution that will please no one whatsoever. Which is an impressive feat in itself.

  19. The Local Government By Elections are also the the same area where Labour did least well last June.

    Mrs May Speech Florentine soufflé was like a Presidential Inaugural – warms words stirred vigorously with platitudinous cliche – maybe a recipe for disaster – maybe it will win the bake-off. However, saying you want something bold and imaginative isn’t actually a practical proposal which can be modified in negotiation rather it is a commendable expression of good will….not quite what we need 6 months into Brexit….

  20. B&B

    You misunderstand me, try reading my 3.48 post. I don’t think anything has really changed in the UK Governments approach and my view remains we are likely to leave without a deal.

    If you read the details of what was said including the Press conference she has now said that negotiations may well continue almost up to the close off date. In other words the chance for Parliament to hamper our leaving will be reduced. Just IMO of what is going on of course.

  21. PASSTHEROCK PLEASE

    see my 3.38 and 4.41 posts

  22. Trevor W
    Pax vobiscum.

    Passthethirdrockfromthesun
    Good summary of the place we’re in.
    I hope that the European countries know that well known Noel Coward song, “Don’t let’s be beastly to the British”.

  23. Good afternoon all or early evening all from a warm slightly sunny’ish Central London.

    Not seen TM’s speech but the mantra “No deal is better than a bad deal is waffle”

    A bad deal is bad but probably not all of a bad deal would be bad whereas no deal would chuck up uncertainty and anxiety throughout the economy and would be a disaster.

    Right..I’ve got a train to catch.

  24. I think May’s speech was an internal Tory party matter. Even the London Uber news trumped it.

    She will have to repeat it next week at the conference, maybe accommodating the leavers a bit more.I

    I also think the creative brexit means stay, but not in words. So, not leaving is not remaining,but creatively leaving. As many things may happen untl 2022 OED may have to update the collections of new words.

  25. Excellent work by boris.

    She has confirmed that we will be leaving the eU on 29th march 2019 together with the customs union.
    Given away no money as EU`has to agree implementation period so presumably something to implement.

    It is all pointless because the EU will not agree a trade deal with us but it is politically clever. The EU withdrawal bill can be passed for us leaving the EU on the 29th March without the opposition of the no deal then stay in brigade. From that date EU law will only be UK law if we choose to adopt it. For the implementation period we may well mirror EU law but will not be bound to do so and divergence is bound to occur. soft landing in prospect.

  26. Why on earth were the Brexit talks delayed for that speech “nothing has changed”

  27. Just about from a fab week in Palma, Majorca.

    I did receive some sympathetic, pitying looks from the lovely locals when they realised I was British. And it wasn’t just because I was in a wheelchair and trying to speak Spanish.

    God help us all.

  28. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    Yes I read it an d I believe you did not seem to read mine in return. I accept nothing has changed in the fact that we are in the muddled middle. I would have thought that if we are to crash out then we should be making proper preparations to do so but in truth we are not.

    As you know I am a remainer but if we are to be out we should at least make some effort to prepare for this do you not think.

    The idea I get is that we will be negotiating upto the 1st April 2019 and hoping soem form of transition deal will just magically appear to save us from ourselves yet we cannot agree what the transition will look like let alone what a deal will be. the point is we are delaying the pain for party political reason indeed we had the referendum for party political reason so at this juncture I should not be surprised at this stupidity

    We are so contradictory I am presuming the EU is standing back and shaking their heads for example we say the EU immigration lowers wages (something that the BoE have refuted) and that is why we don’t want you anymore, so people decide to leave or stay away and then we say but we love you and need you, sounding like some schizophrenic partner that really needs therapy.

    AT somepoint we need to acknowledge we are not going to get a deep and loving relationship with our ex like friend with benefits and man up to set up our future, pain where pain would be and success were we can find it. As you will be aware brexit is not the reason why steelworker in Port talbot are out of work or cleaners are stuck on minimum wage or the fact we have so many minimum wage workers in the first place. brexit is a distraction to solving these issues which for is one of the reasons why I feel we need to move beyon brexit. Since the best deal we can obtain in terms of trade with the US will not change anything for those bottom 20% without fundamental changes to this country such that the proceeds of what ever success there is is shared or else this will be all for nothing.

    The point is those that voted remain, the metropolitan cities and the like in England are currently the ones that are winning, and those in many of the regions are presently losing without fundamental change the FTA will help the very people that voted remain and screw over the very people that voted to leave which will be ironic.

    the many people that voted leave that I spoke to during the campaign believed that the leaving the EU in it self was not the change presently I have a fear that actually that is all there is to brexit and there is no beyond it is business as usual. which si not a great thing for anyone

  29. From the guardian:

    Here is Hilary Benn, the Labour chairman of the Commons Brexit committee, on the speech.

    “It has taken the government a very long time to accept the reality that the UK will need transitional arrangements as we leave the EU. So, the prime minister’s announcement that the government wants to stay bound by EU rules for ‘around’ two years after March 2019, that it will offer a financial settlement to honour our obligations and that EU citizens will still be able to come to the UK although they will have to register, does represent a small step forward. However, it remains to be seen whether these proposals will be enough to unblock the talks, especially since it is no clearer how the government proposes to avoid the return of a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic.

    More worryingly, we still don’t know what will come after the transition. Mrs May ruled out both the Norwegian and Canadian options in favour of a ‘bespoke’ deal. Yesterday, Mr Barnier made clear that no such option is on the table as far as the EU is concerned. How does the prime minister plan to achieve such a deal when her speech did not provide the detail or certainty that British business desperately needs so it can plan ahead?”

  30. Let’s get to the important matters of the day – cricket.

    A tense finish to the penultimate matches, and I shall sleep better knowing Yorkshire look fairly safe.

    @TOH

    Middlesex need to do well versus Somerset. Do all you can will you?

  31. @ TOH – I agree with your 3:48pm post in as much as the chances of a “good” deal are lower and hence “no deal” or “bad deal” are higher.

    We’ll have to wait for the reaction. So far Barnier hasn’t said much. His tweet was:

    “Constructive #FlorenceSpeech by PM May; must be translated into negotiating positions to make meaningful progress”

    If that was a central banker speaking I’d read concern into the use of “meaningful” rather than “sufficient”. Not reading much into “constructive” he had to acknowledge the concessions offered.

    May has gone as far as she can for now (IMHO). The reaction from Brussels, the next round of talks and then the EU council meeting 20-21Oct should tell us if EU want to punish us or not (if I was them I’ll be getting a strong whiff of blood in the water).

    A v.bad deal is Norway forever and if we’ve put Norway transition on the table (which we 90% have) then EU can play their special and drag that process out forever. Has May got the guts to walk-away if faced with a punishment deal? Will HoC decide that for her (by bringing down the govt)? I suspect she’ll have to make that decision sooner rather than later (I had thought we’d be at the walk-talk crunch point in Spring’18)

    I thought some fresh air might make me a little more positive after her speech and Q&A, sadly no.

  32. CATMANJEFF

    “Middlesex need to do well versus Somerset. Do all you can will you?”

    I will certainly be willing them on at Taunton. I have followed Middlesex ever since my dad took me to see Compton score a 100 at Lords in his anna mirabalis, 1947.

    Finny bowled his heart out yesterday to take 8-79 to beat Lancs.

  33. I suppose the Norwegian solution doesn’t refer to the 1tn dollar sovereign fund …

  34. It seems to me she has suggested a 2 year transitional period during which time the UK will comply with E.U. rules (so I assume the 4 freedoms will still apply) and pay money to the E.U.
    Cannot help thinking she will run into a lot of opposition from her won side.
    Nigel Farage has already given his opinion ‘Nigel Farage has claimed Theresa May’s United Nations speech on Brexit stuck ‘two fingers up’ to Brits who voted Leave in last year’s EU referendum. She doesn’t want to leave at all and wants the current status quo to be rebadged
    ‘This transition arrangement she’s opted for where effectively we stay members for another two years, I fear that could go on for a long time.’

  35. Won should read own

  36. NeilJ
    I read that as “wants the status quo to be re-badgered”
    Now that would be a change of emphasis!

  37. @TREVOR WARNE

    would a CETA deal be a punishment or is it that we just cannot accept anything other than being in th e EU but outside?

    The other issues were not even addressed, I think that the problem of the use of the UK courts was the hue and cry of Dacre (whom has more than the occasional dinner with May) over the courts ruling and them being called traitors to the nation and the Tories very slow defence of the judiciary.

    having said all that nothing really has changed barnier wants to know what it actually means in practical terms which is to my mind would have said she made a speech and delayed a set of negotiations for nothing as a tax payer I want my money back she could have made that as a statement to the commons as saved everyone a journey

  38. @ NEILJ – Farage is not an MP but other than that I agree with you. BoJo signed off on that speech but doesn’t seem his opus hardened it up in anyway (that was as soft as May could be).

    Tough to know the exact numbers but around 30 CON would be very happy with “no deal” – which is of course the default if no deal is agreed.

    A lot of Leave (including myself) would prefer “no deal” to a bad deal and Norway for perpetuity would be a v.bad deal.

  39. RJW
    I read that as “wants the status quo to be re-badgered”
    Now that would be a change of emphasis!

    Ruddy badgers, get everywhere:-)

  40. RMJ – odds for Corbyn as next PM have dropped today but you can still get better than evens for LAB most seats in next GE. I’m not going to talk my book, just letting you know in case you fancy a flutter :)
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.132117695

  41. “The EU withdrawal bill can be passed for us leaving the EU on the 29th March without the opposition of the no deal then stay in brigade. From that date EU law will only be UK law if we choose to adopt it.”

    No, it will be UK law as there would be nothing else to replace it with.

  42. Good Evening all from a sunny Bournemouth East.
    I think the PM’s speech will have a positive impact on polling for the Cons and her own position, weakening that of Boris, with Hammond doing well.

    Lib Dem figures look too high in the polls; IMO

    Labour seem to be stable at the moment.

  43. Trevor

    I don’t understand the odds on betfair, can you translate to English for me

  44. PASSTHEROCKPLEASE

    What can I say to your post to me. We have totally different visions of the future so there is little ground we can meet on. Leaving without a deal will be painful for the UK and the EU in the short term, but then that’s as much up to the EU as it is to us. If they wish to punish us for leaving they will and in doing so they will punish themselves. In the longer term we will be better of in so many ways.

  45. S THOMAS

    We are reading the speech in the same way it seems. It has gone down very well in the Tory party with both Leavers and Remainers so far.

  46. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    My problem is not a vision of the future: it is what is the soutions to the problems of the present. We have had a growth in low skilled low value add jobs which has led to more stagnant wages and the fact that asset accumulation gains more than income and the share of any productivity tends to assets and capital.

    brexit does not change this, only investment and redistribution does none of these issue are solved by a FTA and so my angst is not about brexit but lack of preparation or even thought of wht the hell happens outside brexit.

    At best brexit is a distraction (me being polite) at worst it is adding to the problems we have to solve.

    One question I did have for leavers is what is wrong with the CETA deal? I would have thought the UK government would have jumped at this since that is better than no deal is it not.

  47. @ PRINCESS RACHEL – betfair

    2 represents evens = you bet X and either double your money or lose it all

    2 = better than evens (e.g. 6 means you bet X to get 6X but risk losing your stake of X)

    LAB at 2.02 would hence mean you’d get 202quid if you bet 100quid (but of course you might lose the 100quid)

    “Lay” is the inverse as such of “Back” (bit more tricky to explain, betfair tutorial pretty good tho). Easiest to stick to Back for starters

    Not encouraging gambling of course. I haven’t searched the online bookies recently for “free bet” offers but most of them usually offer some kind of free bet – best to save those for longer odds though although you’d probably have to place a qualifying bet and that is where you want to pick a dead cert.

  48. I am glad UKPR has finally got to the only subject that really matters – county cricket.

    Finny did indeed bowl magnificently to defeat my beloved Red Rose. I was grudgingly pleased for him – it was a super match. Alas for Haseeb and his broken finger. I listened this afternoon to the excellent BBC coverage as the perfidious foe fluked their way to victory past Jeetan Patel and the hapless Warks. At least it was the admirable yeoman Steve Patterson who got the winning runs, well backed by young Matt Fisher (I did not realise until recently that Fisher is partially deaf – another reason to be impressed by him).

    As it looks like Yorkshire are safe and losing to Surrey will not send them down, I will be at Old Trafford next week to watch the magnificent Kumar Sangakkara in his last first class match. He can get a final ton if he likes as long as we win, and our excellent young keeper and opener Alex Davies cements his place on the Lions tour and if Sangakkara could finish his career as victim of our talented young leggie Matt Parkinson, all the better.

    Back to talking of less important things.

  49. TOH
    Regarding going down well in the Tory party, I look forward to seeing the polling which backs up that assessment.

    Still looks like a load of ferrets fighting in a bloke down the pub’s trousers to me, as indeed it has done since DC woke up one morning and thought that having a referendum would be a spiffing idea.

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