Ipsos MORI’s monthly political monitor has topline figures of CON 40%(-1), LAB 44%(+2), LDEM 9%(nc), UKIP 2%(-1). Fieldwork was over the weekend and changes are from July.

Leader satisfaction ratings are May minus 17, Corbyn minus 3 and Cable minus 1. While Vince Cable has the least negative net rating, this is because he has far higher don’t knows than the other two leaders (39% compared to 10%) rather than any great surge of “pro-Vince” feeling. MORI also asked some more detailed questions about perceptions of the leaders’ qualities, underlining the collapse in perceptions of May’s and the rehabilitation of Jeremy Corbyn since last year. In September 2016 Theresa May had better ratings on almost everything (the sole exception was being marginally more likely to be seen as more style than substance). Now there are obvious areas where the two leaders outshine each other – May is still more likely to be seen as a capable leader, good in a crisis (though her leads are vastly reduced – in 2016 she beat Corbyn by 44 points on being a capable leader, now it’s only 7 points), but Corbyn now has strong leads on personality and honesty, and is much less likely to be seen as out of touch.

MORI also repeated their regular question comparing the popularity of leaders and their parties – do respondents like the leader and party, the leader but not their party, the party but not its leader, or neither of them? 46% of people said they liked Jeremy Corbyn (up 9 since last year), putting him eight points behind Labour on 54% (up 8) – that means both Corbyn and Labour have become more popular, but Corbyn continues to be less popular than his party. Compare this with the Conservatives: a year ago Theresa May vastly outshone her party, by 60% to 38%. That gap has now vanished – the Conservative party is still only liked by 38%, but Theresa May is now on the same figure, down by 22 points (At the risk of pointing out the obvious, note how much stronger the Labour brand remains than the Conservative party – while they may not vote for them, most people have a broadly positive perception of the Labour party, far more than can be said for the Tories). Full tabs are here

There was also a poll by Opinium at the weekend, which had movement in the opposition direction. Their topline figures were CON 41%(+1), LAB 41%(-2), LDEM 5%(-1), UKIP 5%(+1). Looking at the broader picture, the polls still appear to be clustered around a very small lead for the Labour party. Tabs for Opinium are here.


308 Responses to “Ipsos MORI/Standard – CON 40, LAB 44, LDEM 9”

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  1. “that means both Corbyn and Labour have become more popular, but Corbyn continues to be less popular than his party.”

    ———

    An interesting stat for those who think Labour’s revival is due to cult-like reverence of the Corbster.

  2. @CARFREW

    cameron was always more popular than his party, Trump was never popular indeed he was even less popular than Hilary and yet vagaries of FPTP in both means that often it is whom I hate more than whom I like.

    Corbyn will never be popular in that sense but he will enthuse the party and the Labour ground campaign really was good because of that enthusiasm. Tories normally ahve the press to do their enthusing for them so I expect the like of the Torygraph the DE and DM to sell exactly what te tories want since it is more important to not have Labour than it is to get what they want.

    I still think that no matter what happens to brexit this cycle is about austerity and investment. I think it is interesting that BoJo 4000 words found time to talk about infrastructure investment and borrowing money to do it. Thta is a real first for a Brexiteer. an indeed the only positive I would take from his monologue.

    I fear the problem with the Tories are they are still arguing as to what brexit means and indeed what the election result means. I am not sure they will get unconfused any time soon

    What is interesting though is that politically labour is not being paid any attention in the media it seems. we appear to lurch from sensation (Trump , BoJo) to speculation (Florence speech etc) and back again whilst actually not making any progress. We even have missed the fact that the Home secretary has defied a court and expelled a person and thus Rudd could end up in court and in jail. To that would be an interesting diversion

    I foresee, with these figures, a hung parliament and progressive alliance taking over from the Tories with these figures I also see May fighting the next election because no one will want to sandwich that follows brexit

  3. The age split is remarkable. We should just refer to them as The Party For Older Voters (PFOV) and The Party For Younger Voters (PFYV).

    Anyone who still is fervently trying to pretend that there is not a generational divide in the UK and that it is widening really needs to open their eyes, or the OVs are going to get a very, very, very nasty shock when the YVs get their candidate in and start to work on what they consider to be the perks that OVs have managed to get out of successive Governments at what the YVs feel is their expense.

    There will be no point whingeing about how unfair it all is when they come after your pensions.

    Which is what they are going to do.

  4. Chris Riley: The age split is remarkable. We should just refer to them as The Party For Older Voters (PFOV) and The Party For Younger Voters (PFYV).

    Anyone who still is fervently trying to pretend that there is not a generational divide in the UK and that it is widening really needs to open their eyes, or the OVs are going to get a very, very, very nasty shock when the YVs get their candidate in and start to work on what they consider to be the perks that OVs have managed to get out of successive Governments at what the YVs feel is their expense.

    I can’t quite shift out of my mind the notion that you are astroturfing for Vince Cable [74] as the safest PM for OV’s ….

  5. Carfrew

    “An interesting stat for those who think Labour’s revival is due to cult-like reverence of the Corbster.”

    Those who talk about “cult-like reverence.” probably aren’t those who explain the revival of Lab due (at least partially) to Corbyn being popular among those who now would vote Lab.

    Nor, on the other hand, does it suggest that all those who quite like Corbyn will necessarily vote Lab.

    If the Scottish crossbreak seems broadly in line with Full Scottish polls, then it seems safe to assume that the attitudinal questions are probably broadly in line too.

    In this poll (VI – SNP 48% : SCon 23% : SLab 19% : SLD 7%) the likes/dislikes for Corbyn & Lab are –

    Like JC : Like Lab – 26%
    Like JC : DislikeLab – 26%
    Dislike JC : Like Lab – 20%
    Dislike both – 20%

    It’s perfectly possible for someone to hold any of those opinions and vote SNP in Scotland, or LD in SW England for example.

  6. @ RJW (from last thread) – I’m glad yourself and many other made some money on the last GE from my tips. In fairness Dr.Mibbles came up what seemed like a crazy idea (Canterbury), YouGov model then confirmed the idea which perked my attention (but there model is impossible to reverse engineer), Richard provided the data to allow model builders to input improved demographic filters and my humble offering was simply to say it might happen and where to place the bets (for free at 25-1 I seem to remember!!). Fantastic team effort all round. I’m sure you corrected some grammar to help out – big shout :)

    Electoral Calculus is based on UNS. It’s a simple approach and simple to use. I don’t use that approach. YouGov model has access to huge database and although current holder of “tail on the donkey” (shared with Survation polls) their model had LAB around 30seats too high (if you adjust for their poll info) – within their tolerance range (which was massive). They haven’t updated it since 7Jun so you can see their 302 CON seats with a 4% CON lead if you care to look.
    https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/

    @ CARFREW (from last thread) – thanks for the discussion today. I agree completely with your post-war to oil crisis 1 analysis and LAB’s great work in the late 1940s-60s – the oil crisis were then global shocks in the days before globalisation. I hope I’m wrong about the unions. I may also be overly concerned about the momentum take-over of LAB. Anyway, thank you for the discussion – I hadn’t gone back as far and hence failed to pay respect to the great work of LAB in the post war decades.

  7. @oldnat

    Thanks for correcting me on all those things I never said!

  8. OLD NAT
    The socialist SNP tail not unnaturally wagging the Corbyn dog.

  9. @Chris Riley – Pension stealing

    Which is why I have always thought it insane to save for your dotage in areas where a future Government can get its greedy mitts on it.

    (from previous thread) @R Huckle @PeterW – A50 Revocability.

    The commission has set out what it believes is the legal position on A50
    http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_MEMO-17-648_en.htm

    When does the United Kingdom cease to be a member of the European Union?

    The EU Treaties cease to apply to the United Kingdom from the date of entry into force of the agreement, or within 2 years of the notification of withdrawal, in case of no agreement. The Council may decide to extend that period by unanimity.

    Until withdrawal, the Member State remains a member of the European Union, with all the rights and obligations that derive from membership, including the principle of sincere cooperation which states that the Union and all its Member States shall assist each other in carrying out the Treaty.

    What happens if no agreement is reached?

    The EU Treaties simply cease to apply to the UK two years after notification.

    Can a Member State apply to re-join after it leaves?

    Any country that has withdrawn from the EU may apply to re-join. It would be required to go through the accession procedure.

    Once triggered, can Article 50 be revoked?

    It is up to the United Kingdom to trigger Article 50. But once triggered, it cannot be unilaterally reversed. Notification is a point of no return. Article 50 does not provide for the unilateral withdrawal of notification.

    Their position is clear there can be no revocation by the UK.

    So the only way this could happen is if the UK applied to the ECJ for a ruling.

    Even if the Commission, UK, European Parliament and all 27 EU Members jointly agreed that A50 could be revoked – anyone (Sea Change and friends for instance!) could bring a case at the ECJ to determine whether this floated the Treaty of Lisbon and that A49 would have to be instigated.

  10. @Trevor

    “thanks for the discussion today. I agree completely with your post-war to oil crisis 1 analysis and LAB’s great work in the late 1940s-60s – the oil crisis were then global shocks in the days before globalisation. I hope I’m wrong about the unions. I may also be overly concerned about the momentum take-over of LAB. Anyway, thank you for the discussion – I hadn’t gone back as far and hence failed to pay respect to the great work of LAB in the post war decades.”

    ————

    No probs. I wasn’t aware of full impact of the oil crisis for some time myself either. Takes a little digging around because it’s not something the liberal press like to shout about. Not that I’m saying the unions are without flaw, and Colin had a point recently when saying that in other countries the way unions are integrated is perhaps more ideal. It’s just that it wasn’t the unions that caused the problems in the Seventies, and they didn’t cause heaps of problems beforehand.

    I think it’s wise to wonder at Momentum, but whether one should automatically assume a big lurch towards Trotsky land is summat else. They seem massively chastened these days, and in fact were chastened years ago when the old guard handed the reins over to Blair. As McDonnel put it, they were prepared to massively compromise. It’s just that Blair took it even further…

    The Labour manifesto at the recent GE was no hard left nirvana and was mostly only taking us back to Thatch. To the era of no tuition fees, nationalised rail etc.

    Now, it’s fair enough to consider whether it’s possible they might move further left, but at present there’s very little evidence for it. There’s a sophistication now in terms of dealing with capital that was lacking in the post war period, for example when they talk about just introducing a state player into the market for energy or banking. Which allows them to ramp it up if the private sector screw up or take the mick, and back off if things are ok.

    After what happened when they allowed SDP and then lib dems to split the Labour vote, and then allowed the liberal takeover from within, one gets impression that the momentum crowd are only too aware of what happens if you take your eye off the ball in these matters and pursue idealism instead of pragmatism, or indeed compromise too much. But obviously those inside the camp will have more info. on this…

  11. Trevor Warne
    See my reply to Turk on previous thread. I just find it mildly irritating that you always seek to turn ” a good tune for the reds into a rousing anthem for the blues”.
    Sorry about teasing you for minor grammatical errors, you write so much that you probs don’t notice.
    Seriously, I shall be most disappointed if the You Gov behemoth is not revived in time for the next GE. Your tips, whether ironic or not were most welcome!

  12. John Pilgrim

    On that VI, you have “tail” and “dog” the wrong way round!

    Of course, if Lab can recover sufficiently in England, then it can revert to its 20th century position of occasionally being the government at Westminster, without the need for any Scottish MPs at all.

    However, that seems a little unlikely at the moment and (without a bloc of SLab MPs willing to vote for anything at all in the governance of England) would be liable to be derailed by rebel Lab MPs.

    In that context, the position of SLab should be exercising minds down south, and the current SLab leadership contest may well be a critical factor.

    I formerly suggested that Sarwar would win because few had heard of Leonard (outside TU activist circles).

    That now seems to be rapidly becoming unlikely, as the press focus more closely on Sarwar’s family company and its refusal to pay the Real Living Wage.

    “http://www.heraldscotland.com/news/15550727.Sarwar_admits_taking_share_cash_from_controversial_family_business/?ref=mr&lp=3”

    Would Sarwar or Leonard to a better job in getting Westminster seats? That, presumably, would be the question for Lab supporters in England. It may not be the most important question for the SLab selectorate though.

  13. @Monochrome October

    Astroturfing for Cable? Seriously? My friends would find that hilarious. I can’t bear him for reasons that are too dull to go into here (but which pre-date his emergence as a national figure) , and I have never been shy about it.

  14. Chris Riley

    in this poll 40% had no opinion as to whether Cable was doing well or badly.

  15. As Joni Mitchell sang – you don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone.

    I have a feeling that SLab will rather miss their former leader – whoever takes over – and that their slight recovery is going to stall.

    If that does turn out to be the case it will make a Labour government even more difficult to achieve.

  16. % of public who find [X] to be of sound judgement:

    T. May: 36% (-20)
    J. Corbyn: 40% (+10)

    May’s personal ratings are a disaster.

    I don’t think they are retrievable-whatever she thinks. She would lose heavily to Corbyn in a GE.

    The succession & it’s timing is of supreme importance to Cons.

  17. Madrid has sent three cruise liners full of riot police to Barcelona

    Barcelona Port Authority workers refuse to service the ships but, of course, that will make little difference.

    It’s really sad to see totalitarianism rise again in Europe.

  18. @Colin

    Yes it’s the shift in the leader ratings which are the most remarkable and underlines just how bad the 2017 GE was for May ‘s personal standing. l

  19. @Oldnat

    I hope the Spanish Government has the sense to back down.

    Their actions to date have been counter-productive.

  20. @ RJW – so still no analysis yourself but you find mine irritating?!? Apologies if the echo in this chamber doesn’t unanimously meet your n=1 belief.

    I described how (IMHO) LAB has the best chances of winning a clean/comfortable majority on the last thread – maybe you missed it – feel free to go back and read it.

    In particular if you see how LAB can fix the Scotland seats then please share your wisdom.

    @ OLDNAT – I don’t see a GE until at least late 2018 but Leonard as SLAB leader will IMHO be a huge boost for SNP taking back the 6 seats they lost to LAB (help in Holyrood as well I suspect). I’ve never seen any plausible explanation for why any left voter in Scotland would vote LAB at a GE rather than SNP – but putting “Islington’s choice” in as SLAB leader would ensure LAB lose those seats even if Sturgeon goes AWOL again. I suspect SNP will also grab a few seats back from CON and LIB but that depends on many other factors and a lot of turbulent water to pass under the VI bridge in the next 18mths or so.
    If Sturgeon gets on with the day job and bides her time I think she’ll get everything she could wish for in due course. Do you think she’ll be able to resist the temptation if either Indy or VI polls go over 50%? From what I understand the Holyrood approval for IndyRef2 is on the statute book and can’t be taken off unless formally repealed (ie no date limitation) – is that correct?

    I see Catalonia and French far-left finally making it onto the Beeb! It does bring UK politics back into some perspective and remind us how lucky we are.

  21. @Trevor Warne

    I see Catalonia and French far-left finally making it onto the Beeb! It does bring UK politics back into some perspective and remind us how lucky we are.

    I’m rather envious that the people in a part of Spain are voicing their demand for something the Government don’t want to give, and are not backing down.

    Some more of that across the world would shake things up a bit to say the least!

  22. @COLIN
    @HIERTON

    I believe we overstate leadership in terms of party politics. When thing are bad we would tend to balme leadership for the problem. When things go well we attribute them to leadership too. For me Blairs greatest achievement were actually brownite governance in the same way I believe the camerons achievements were based on Osborne’s navigation economically and indeed his failures are also due to the economics of Osborne

    The point is that the Tory voting intention is independent of whether May or Corbyn are leaders at this juncture and I actually believe it is not just a change in leadership that the Tories need but a change in policy because at some point there will have to be something to vote for rather than against

  23. Trevor Warne
    Yes no analysis by me, which doesn’t invalidate my opinion that your default position is always to use your selective analyses to “turn a good tune for the red side into a rousing anthem for the blues”. Same old same old, all the time.
    There would have been no investigation by you of possible alternatives to permanent Tory rule if I hadn’t pointed out your monomania.
    As Barnaby Marder said on the last thread,” if Tories want to feel complacent that all will come right , I’m not going to stop them. “

  24. PTRP

    @”I believe we overstate leadership in terms of party politics”

    I believe there have been a number of polling studies which show the link between Leadership ratings & electoral success.

    Certainly a leader can have less support than his/her Party.

    But negative ratings , after catastrophic decline point , imo, to one thing only.

    This is not to say that a Leadership change will be sufficient for a Con GE win, but it is necessary for one.

  25. Chris Riley,

    Speaking as a right-wing young person, I couldn’t vote for the Tories right now. They were tolerable under Cameron and I still like Ruth Davidson, but any ambitions for a freer, more competitive, and more stable country for future generations have gone. Keeping the deficit down was one of their few direct appeals my generation and they’re not even interested in that anymore.

  26. So no real move from a small Lab lead just about enough to make them the largest party (Scottish seats would decide perhaps)

  27. A few short months ago posters on here would laugh at Labour polling 44% and Corbyn miles ahead of May in their respective personal approval ratings.

  28. Trevor Warne

    “gets on with the day job”??? Is there a reason why you just repeat Unionist attacks?

    Understandable that partisans politicians would say such things, but why you?

    As to the timing of the Scotref, Sturgeon has said that she isn’t sure when it will be triggered. That makes sense when everyone else is waiting to see how Brexit turns out as well.

    Yes the Parliament has passed the legislation for the referendum. SCon and SLab can constantly claim that there is no mandate for it – despite the Parliament vote and the referendum being in the 2015, 2016 and 2017 manifestoes, and the SNP winning all 3 elections.

    That just puts SCon and SLab into the same camp as the Spanish government. Hopefully they and the UK won’t revert to similar tactics, but if the Spanish get away with it, that would be a temptation for the UK to follow suit.

    While none of the English based parties have the Falangist inheritance that Madrid does,they doesn’t exactly have a pure and unsullied record in dealing with independence movements either!

  29. OLD NAT”
    “On that VI, you have “tail” and “dog” the wrong way round!
    Since I am in the Midlothian SCLP and in the vicinity of the Dick Vet, I can offer no excuse!
    Paul
    I don’t get that sense. The interest in the Lothians-Morningside belt of the party is in the probable influence at the GE and future elections of the effective use of social media in tapping into the traditional labour vote and that of a student demographic,but also that of a substantial unionist and remain vote which wants none of May and a hell of a lot less of Boris and Gove.

  30. John P

    “Paul
    I don’t get that sense.”

    What sense? I’m immersed in Dowland at the mo and have no idea what I may have said.

  31. Politicians are rarely as bad or as good as we paint them.I never thought Jezza would be as bad as some posters here thought although they have been hurting down the road to Damascus since the election. I hope they have reverse gears.Mind you i nev r thought that he would catch the mood as he did.
    But neither do i think May is as bad as we paint her. She has been quite good this week. Although the public think that she is a dead loss was it only april when Jezza was the clown prince of labour? I fshe were to hang on to 2021 and the end of a transition period she might get credit for steering the ship when no -one else wanted to and the public finances might be in surplus or near enough.
    In 2021 the tories might do a gordon brown and go on a spending spree targeting student debt, student fees, care provision. after all why hand the keys to the treasure chest to labour. Best empty it first.

  32. S THOMAS

    That’s an even handed post from you! May might hang on until 2021 but it seems like an awful long time away and so much will happen before then.
    Ambitious Tory politicians will be desperate to get their hands onto the Premiership. I can’t see the likes of Johnson being prepared to wait that long.

  33. Mike pearce

    I object to you saying that i am even handed. Something must have got lost in translation.

  34. Mike Pearce

    “Ambitious Tory politicians will be desperate to get their hands onto the Premiership”

    Very rich though many undoubtedly are, I doubt that they can compete with foreign money to buy football clubs.

  35. Irish Times reporting that May will offer “a transition period of up to two years, during which Britain would continue to have access to the single market and the customs union. In return, Britain would pay up to €20 billion each year into the EU budget.”

    https://www.irishtimes.com/news/world/uk/theresa-may-to-seek-two-year-transitional-deal-with-eu-1.3229663?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

    What is this “access to the single market” stuff?

    Every country has “access” to it – if EU firms want to buy and other countries to sell.

    Sounds like May is suggesting some form of continuing membership of the EU until 2021 (but without any voting rights).

    And what’s this “maximum £20 billion per year”? The budget is set till then. Is that figure higher or lower than the UK would have made anyway?

    No doubt we will find out tomorrow when the text of her speech is released to an apathetic world.

  36. PAUL
    “What sense?”
    I can’t remember. Good luck with Dowland.

  37. Third release of data by the Independent from their BMG poll

    “52 per cent of the public back remaining in the EU, while 48 per cent would support leaving”

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-majority-uk-british-people-stay-in-eu-not-leave-latest-poll-theresa-may-florence-speech-tory-a7960226.html

  38. @S Thomas:

    I think Starmer is well on the way to reversing Brexit. He needs to stop coming back fro Brussels talking about how many pats on the head he got, but there’ll be a collapse in Brexit morale at some point. Possibly it will come after the EU laugh at Theresa May’s speech; maybe when she gives on current demands; maybe when having given in on the demands to start talking, the EU comes up with new demands.

    The real question is whether there is an “I love Big Brother” epiphany, or it is just that people realise that it is best not to find out how hungry the rats are if the cage is opened. If it is the latter, then the political reaction may be as erratic as happened after the SNP lost.

    At the moment – although one poll in the Independent is shouting about a statistically insignificant shift to 52-48 for Remain – the polls are remarkably static on Brexit given that the negotiations have gone far below the lowest expectation. (I am a committed Leaver – I can’t say I anticipated the EU saying that A.50 provision created a legal basis to just not negotiate, and even Project Fear did not anticipate the EU presenting a €100bn bill.)

    Anyway, the election taught us that opinions can shift quickly. But if Labour avoid making mistakes of a catastrophic nature, it is hard to see any dynamic other than a strong pressure on Brexit morale. Unless the EU and its UK supporters overplay their hand, there is a thumping majority in Parliament to overturn Brexit if there is any meaningful shift in the Brexit polls.

    What happens next is anyone’s guess.

  39. I think we should all sing the anthem, oh Jeremy Corbyn .You will all feel a bit better.

  40. Indy also saying UK would pay between £20and £30 billion per year.

    Good God! NHS England will crumble if it can’t get that money! No change there, then. It seems to be happening already.

  41. Joseph 1832

    “the political reaction may be as erratic as happened after the SNP lost.”

    The last time the SNP lost an election was in 2010. I don’t remember anything particularly “erratic” happening.

    What is it that you are referring to?

  42. Joseph
    “… maybe when having given in on the demands to start talking, the EU comes up with new demands.”

    Of course they will. We need to keep their feet to the fire. The speech will be interesting. If there are signs of caving in to the EU look out for a resurgence in UKIP VI, which would mainly be at the expense of the Tories. Luckily Corbyn and his mates are anti-EU as well, as leaving would enable them to renationalise everything in sight.

    G’night all.

  43. Interesting snippets from that hotbed of political discussion….. ‘Farming Today’.

    It was announced that there has been a £30m investment in a NI factory producing powdered milk… apparently they couldn’t keep up with the demand from mainland UK companies who are switching from supplies from the EU because of Brexit. So investment, jobs and a boost to the dairy industry. Furthermore, the price of milk has gone up so that small dairy farmers are finally breaking even and not thinking about following the many who have already gone out of business.
    Other news was that exports of lamb and beef were booming because of the low pound.

  44. @SYZYGY

    “I was trying to explain hyper loop to LP members the other day… can’t say that they were overwhelmingly keen. It might have been the analogy with the vacuum system for cash, as seen in the old Woolworths and “Are you being served’. Mind, it was an easier concept than Bitcoin :)”

    ———–

    Oh God, good luck explaining bitcoin!! Haven’t tried explaining hyperloop but I suppose alongside explaining the problem of air resistance and how it increases as the square of velocity, there’s also trying to persuade as to the value of the greater speed.

    According to Musk, who thinks we’ll need to tunnel a lot more to handle increased traffic density in future, that if you tunnel then in the process it effectively creates sufficient of a seal so you can do the vacuum without much extra effort.

    What’s interesting about Musk if you track his solutions is how he attacks these problems. To him, the critical issue is reducing the cost of tunnelling by an order of magnitude. He has a similar approach to energy: it’s critical to slash the cost of batteries, hence the gigafactories. And with colonising Mars the critical thing is slashing the cost of space travel, hence the reusable rockets that land back on the launchpad.

  45. Joseph
    “What happens next is anyone’s guess.”
    Except what’s already happening in the growing recognition of the clumsiness and irrelevance of the financial and administrative processes being squabbled over in Brussels, by comparison with the cultural and human ties which have taken on language, moral and human resource dimensions at an accelerating level spread through migration and the internet , On the one hand the steady voices of industry and the market, on the other the persistence of language, cultural, scientific and educational ties and institutions and the search for livelihoods and access..
    One of the blessings of rising early (Ah, the peace and untroubled communication of the dawn prayer, as my Muslim teachers tell i)t is that of witnessing the long cast of recorded music and theatre – Purcell written with English wit for the Elizabethan court and ,performed not here, but acted and sung with American precision and humour superbly in Boston.

  46. Good morning, John

  47. Copy of M Barnier’s speech in Rome

    http://europa.eu/rapid/press-release_SPEECH-17-3404_en.htm

    He says a transition deal would be part of the Art 50 withdrawal agreement. That is a point of law, he claims.

    Then this – which will create a stir

    “I would like to be very clear: if we are to extend for a limited period the acquis of the EU, with all its benefits, then logically “this would require existing Union regulatory, budgetary, supervisory, judiciary and enforcement instruments and structures to apply” – as recalled in the mandate I received from the European Council, under the authority of President Donald Tusk.

    I am convinced that a rapid agreement on the conditions of the UK’s orderly withdrawal, and a transition period, is possible.

    For that to happen, we would like the United Kingdom to put on the table, as soon as next week, proposals to overcome the barriers.”

    I think Mrs May has already had her speech answered.

  48. Is it likely that the UK government will find the EU position acceptable? We get to pay but do not have a say and remain subject to the ECJ and when the UK moves out of any transition period there is third country status and a trade deal that goes with that status. No having the cake and eating it

  49. Have political sketch writers and cartoonists ever had it so good? If I’ve got this right, Violet Elizabeth is going to stand in an empty hall somewhere warm and nice and deliver her gracious speech, dabbing her eyes with a freshly laundered hanky, pleading with the enemy to accept twice as much money as earlier suggested in return for being a member of the club while pretending not to be, oh and by the way, we would like to be excused from one of the club’s four unbreakable rules please as

  50. I feel very sorry for Theresa May, as she volunteered for an impossible job of leading the Tory party and the country through the Brexit process.

    As i see it, the EU will want the UK to pay for single market/customs area access beyond any 2 year transitional period and the EU will also want the UK to pay towards EU projects the UK agreed to fund previously, as well as EU pension liabilities etc. Now many Tory and leave supporters will be extremely unhappy with this. These issues are unlikely to be resolved by 2021 or even 2022 when the next election is currently due to be held.

    I just cannot see Theresa May leading the Tories until June 2022. I think it is quite likely that Brexit will be derailed during 2018 and there will be a mess. Jeremy Corbyn might well end up in Downing Street during 2018, with Kier Starmer as the Brexit minister negotiating with the EU. I would expect the A.50 period to be extended with the consent of the EU and negotiations to be more cooperative.

    http://news.sky.com/story/brexit-and-the-almost-impossible-line-may-must-tread-in-florence-11047266

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