The Sunday Times at the weekend had a Panelbase poll of Scotland, their first since the general election. It doesn’t look like Westminster voting intention was asked, but they have figures for Holyrood constituency vote intention, I think the first figures we’ve had from anyone since way back in March (and the first from Panelbase since the Holyrood election in 2016). Topline figures there are SNP 42%(-5), CON 28%(+6), LAB 22%(-1), LDEM 6%(-2). These changes are from the 2016 election. The SNP continue to have a solid lead, but it’s no longer those 20 or 30 point leads we used to see back in 2016.

On Independence the topline figures were YES 40%(-1), NO 53%(nc), Don’t know 6%(nc). Changes are since June, and obviously don’t suggest any meaningful change. NO seem to have consolidated a double digit lead, not the sort of lead that couldn’t be overturned in a referendum campaign, but not the sort of lead I’d imagine would encourage Nicola Sturgeon to push for one too early.

On that question of timing for a referendum, 17% of peple would like a referendum in the immediate future, while Britain is negotiating to leave the EU, 26% would like a referendum after Britain has finishing negotiating to leave the EU, 58% don’t want one in the “next few years”. As I’ve written before, questions like this are very vulnerable to the timebands you offer, but when you add up the pro and anti answers they tend to fall in similar proportions to support for independence – those who’d like independence tend to favour a referendum on independence sometime soonish, those who don’t want independence anyway don’t particularly want a vote on it either. Full tabs for the Panelbase poll are here.

There is also a new YouGov poll of Wales, conducted for ITV and Cardiff University, and also the first since the general election. Westminster voting intention figures stand at CON 32%(-2), LAB 50%(+1), LDEM 4%(-1), Plaid 8%(-2), UKIP 3%(+1). Labour have strengthened their position marginally from what was already a very strong position.

Voting intentions for the Welsh Assembly are:
Constituency: CON 25%, LAB 43%, LDEM 5%, Plaid 19%, UKIP 4%
Regional: CON 23%, LAB 40%, LDEM 5%, Plaid 19%, UKIP 5%
According to Roger Scully if these figures were repeated at an actual Assembly election then on a uniform swing Labour would narrowly regain their majority with 31 Assembly seats.


354 Responses to “New Scottish and Welsh polling”

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  1. Also on immigration (and Romanians and Bulgarians in the UK) – the complexities.

    A German company in Romania imports labour from Hungary, which is understandable, one may say. However, a Dutch food processing company employs 18 Nepali workers (paying the Romanian average wage, about 2200 ley a month). It is estimated that Romania imported about 5,000 Nepali workers so far. The largest shipbuilding company now recruits Vietnamese skilled workers due to the loss of skilled Romanian workforce and the collapse of the vocational education.

  2. TREVOR WARNE @ BZ

    (oh and replace LAB with CON)

    Why? What relations do they have with SF, without whom Stormont won’t have a government.

    I think [the DUP] are far shrewder than people give them credit for.

    I agree, but HMG doesn’t appear to have a solution to getting Stormont going again and SoS Brokenshire is threatening direct rule without the “bung”.

    I think [Miller will] have a role to play in Scotland at some point as well, hopefully resulting in an end to the Barnett formula post Brexit in a total overhaul of devolved nations and movement to UK as a federation

    I don’t see any reason for Miller’s involvement. The problem with your theory is that both Con & Lab voted down the SNP’s proposal for FFA in 2015 and have been shown as not delivering even the 2014 “vow” in successive Scottish polls.

    I doubt either Con or Lab are prepared to give up the “Buggin’s turn” at forming HMG which the plurality voting system gives them. Until they are, we’ll continue to have English HMGs with no more interest in the devolved nations than previous HMGs have had.

  3. @ BZ – I’d add that I never wanted CON to do a deal with DUP anyway. I thought going it alone and daring LAB/others to vote down Brexit legislation bill by bill would have been the better option. It looks like LAB have at least 7 MPs that support Leave and I reckon DUP would have been reliable on most of the legislation without a formal deal.

    I don’t think we’ll get to find out but I’d be curious if LAB stopped the faux frustration tactic and got back behind Brexit if DUP did slit their own wrists. Various ways that could play out and too risky given the urgency of Brexit negotiations but I think LAB would have more to lose by forcing an early GE than CON (IMHO).

    Great chatting today. Glad we kept it civil. Apologies for losing it a little the other day. FX markets look like Friday squeeze is over so cashed in chips for the day and off to enjoy a PFL

  4. @ BZ – sorry, I typed reply before reading your last post.

    “HMG doesn’t appear to have a solution to getting Stormont going again”

    replace solution with incentive :)

    IMHO English HMGs with devolved nations representing 8%, 4%, 2% of the population but nothing for the 86% nation is absurd from whichever side you look at it – one for another day though!

  5. TREVOR WARNE @ BZ

    Off out shortly myself and presume you haven’t had chance to read my most recent post of 2017-09-15 11:12 UTC.

    Looking at your most recent post, you don’t seem to acknowledge that under the FTPA a fresh GE wouldn’t be necessary in order to change from a Con HMG to a Lab one.

    Will look back later.

  6. Danny

    I’ve rejected a role as a physics teacher, largely due to the lack of pay compared to other fields I could get into with 1 year of post graduate learning.

    PTRP

    Yes, the language is very important for immigration to Japan and fluency is probably the biggest hurdle I’ll face, although I have made some progress. At some point I’ll actually have to take lessons.

    The reason for going down the highly skilled route would be for the streamlined process to get permanent residency. If I am to emigrate anywhere I’d at least want the knowledge that my position there would be somewhat stable.

    Three years (and potentially one) to gain permanent residency is actually pretty fast compared to a lot of places I have looked at.

    RHuckle

    I’ve certainly noticed quite a big shift in terms of the bar being lowered for skilled immigration so that would back up the increased amounts of immigration.

    Al Urqa

    It’s more about changing the US written constitution about Japan’s limited military capabilities than directly about rearming I find it a little rich when the US criticises Japan for “not pulling it’s weight” when the US wrote the constitution forcing Japan to take a pacifist role in the world.

    In a way I’m sympathetic to the philosophy that WW2 is long gone and Japan has changed as a nation beyond all recognition. Changing the constitution isn’t about to send Japan back to the 1930s and pursuing a war with China.

  7. If anyone is interested in the direct origin of the concept of the United Europe (although most of it has been forgotten):

    https://www.cvce.eu/content/publication/1997/10/13/316aa96c-e7ff-4b9e-b43a-958e96afbecc/publishable_en.pdf

  8. “The problem is there is nor enough of each tribe to get power which is why the EU referendum is so important. The people whom won normally don’t win”
    @passtherockplease September 15th, 2017 at 12:02 pm

    Yes, Leave played a blinder, and Remain was, frankly, pants.

    But Leave had no plan. And in some ways I think the fact they won is the best result. If they had just lost the trench warfare would have continued. Now, they have been passed the parcel, and it’s ticking.

    Whichever way they turn they will annoy half the Leave vote. (I have serious reservations about the JRM side; no one really knows how the world economy will develop and globalisation has been very patchy[1], and is mainly controlled by the big multinationals.)

    The net result will be more than half the country disatisfied with the outcome, and many will claim Brexit has been bad for the country (except the hardline Brexiters that will blame it on the EU). Those that voted Brexit because life is bad already will say, see, no difference! They won’t care either way.

    In short, I can’t see any sunny uplands. But I am still willing to listen to anyone who can provide a compelling argument why Brexit will work.

    [1] What about Africa and South America for example?

  9. AL URQA,

    “But I am still willing to listen to anyone who can provide a compelling argument why Brexit will work.”

    Why, because we’re blighty old chap…don’t you know!

    Remember the Brexit Bus;

    Never in the field of human discourse has so much been offered to so many by so few!

    Peter.

  10. New YouGov poll says: Well no change really:

    https://yougov.co.uk/news/2017/09/14/voting-intention-conservatives-43-labour-42-11-12-/

    Con 41 and Lab 42 (both unchanged) and LibDem +1 at 7.

    Move along, nothing to see here.

  11. Alan,
    “I’ve rejected a role as a physics teacher, largely due to the lack of pay compared to other fields I could get into with 1 year of post graduate learning.”

    Quite. But that just emphasises the extent of the shortage. Providing education has been accepted as a vital national interest for centuries, yet we are still quibbling over doing so effectively. I fear comprehensive education was fundamentally a step back in satisfying national needs, even if it was fairer.

  12. Al U
    “What sort of a name is Cnut ?”
    He was known as Cnut The Great, and monarch of a tripartite kingdom, Denmark/England/Norway.
    A sort of rough and ready non-EU trading zone really I suppose!

  13. AL URQA @ 11.32am

    Pleased you are relaxed about it all. I presume you don’t live in Japan-or are a regular user of commercial airlines in the region.

    Just for clarity-who is the other “nutter” playing “brinkmanship with missile launches? Must have missed that.

  14. Colin,
    “-who is the other “nutter” playing “brinkmanship with missile launches”

    Didnt we recently fire one at the US during a test in the gulf of Mexico?

  15. AL URQA

    @”True, but it doesn’t really matter if he was Mr, King or Dr (or even Ms). My point was he was still out there, I guess looking for those dingies.”

    Historical accurracy matters to some of us Mr Urga-particularly when it relates to our history.Cnut the Great was King of Denmark, England and Norway just before the Norman Conquest.a Danish prince, He was a Danish Prince & won the throne of England in 1016 in the wake of centuries of Viking activity in northwestern Europe.

    In the story, Cnut demonstrates to his flattering courtiers that he has no control over the elements (the incoming tide), explaining that secular power is vain compared to the supreme power of God.

    So he wasn’t looking for “dingies” (sic) -he was telling his sycophantic followers that they couldn’t organise the world as they wished with a grand master plan -even through him-because things don’t work that way.

  16. “Pleased you are relaxed about it all. I presume you don’t live in Japan-or are a regular user of commercial airlines in the region.

    Just for clarity-who is the other “nutter” playing “brinkmanship with missile launches? Must have missed that.W
    @Colin September 15th, 2017 at 2:04 pm

    To get the nutters out of the way — Mr Kim and Mr Trump. If you are being pedantic in meaning Trump has not launched a missile, then fair point. But that now both of them can is the point I was making.

    I am relaxed about it — I live umpteen thousand miles away. But I know China, which is the real power in the region, would like to see the status quo continue. Sanctions will not work because China will not let them. The last thing they want is 20m refugees flooding into their country. That would be a significant headache, and I imagine it takes a lot of effort for the Chinese Communist Party to rule the vast country.

    BTW, Russia probably feels the same way, as they could potentially see many refugees if there is a war.

    South Korea clearly doesn’t want war either. Seoul is within artillery range of the North. No amount of retaliatory strikes will be quick and effective enough to prevent significant damage and destruction being meted on the capital.

    If there is a war the US will support the South. The net result will be (apart from the small issue of millions of deaths) that the US will effectively end up at the Chinese border, and the Chinese certainly do not want that either.

    But if the fool in Washington is going to make jingoistic noises and the fool in Pyongyang is going to keep launching missiles who knows what will happen?

    There is also the problem of not losing face. Ramp the rhetoric up too far and who knows what direction it will turn next. It’s a dangerous game.

    Glad I’m nowhere near!

  17. “Historical accurracy matters to some of us Mr Urga” [sic]
    @Colin September 15th, 2017 at 2:16 pm

    Thanks for the detail. I have to admit not knowing too much about this period, so it is always good to add more details.

    And also dinghy. Another Indian word I’ve now discovered (and now have no excuse not to spell correctly). But what’s the plural: dinghys, or dinghies?

  18. AL URQA

    @” If you are being pedantic in meaning Trump has not launched a missile, then fair point. ”

    No———wasn’t being “pedantic”-just factual. Its Kim who’se doing the threatening , exploding the nukes & firing the missiles. Glad we sorted that out.

    @”I am relaxed about it — I live umpteen thousand miles away.”

    Sure-thought so.

    Thanks for your geo-political assessment. We can all make our minds up about that from reports.

    I suggest that the question isn’t what China will or will not do about KIm -as I say we can all read the learned analyses.

    The question is-what real influence do they actually have over him—————followed rapidly by the question-what will they do after her has fired the first live missile at another country?

    Not looking for your answers by the way-its the right questions which matter just now. The answers are less clear.

  19. AL URQA

    @”But if the fool in Washington is going to make jingoistic noises ”

    Did you mean that these are “jingoistic” ?

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Nations_Security_Council_resolutions_concerning_North_Korea

  20. @Colin

    ‘Historical accurracy matters to some of us ..’

    Well there is no contemporary source to provide evidence that Cnut ever did such a thing or even indicate his reasons. the story comes from henry of Huntingdon who wrote in the C12.

    BTW its a fairly cloudy and cold afternoon in the PSRL

  21. “Did you mean that these are “jingoistic” ?
    @Colin September 15th, 2017 at 2:45 pm

    http://uk.businessinsider.com/north-korea-trump-missile-threat-guam-fire-fury-2017-8?r=US&IR=T
    Trump promised ‘fire and fury’ for North Korea if it continued threats — hours later, it threatened strikes on Guam

    What’s worrying was that was too easy to find. But not wanting to single out North Korea:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Nations_resolutions_concerning_Israel

    Does the number of them win? If so I claim my prize (hopefully not a weekend for two in Pyongyang).

  22. @ BZ – back at desk but a bit worse for wear :)

    Everyone ran the scenarios back in June but a reminder of MPs in HoC:

    Party, seats, running total
    LAB 262, 262
    SNP 35, 297
    LD 12, 309
    PC 2, 311
    Green 1, 312

    Adding in 10 DUP might make it theoretically possible to get Corbyn into #10 with no GE but is that really something you see as realistic. Forgive me for ignoring it earlier – I assumed you were joking :)

  23. On Korea, if you assume all sides are acting rationally then its unlikely that any of the key players are actually seeking war and the risk is mainly that one side will miscalculate.

    North Korea’s actions to date in securing a deterrent, and hence in the regime’s view secure its existence, is logical. Given the West’s recent history of attempting regime change in a number of cases it should come as no surprise that countries such as North Korea are pursuing nuclear capability.

    I very much doubt the US will risk war given the likely loss of life and impact on the region and broader global implications. Unfortunately, we have a president who is subject to shooting from the hip and who’s judgement is suspect, hence the enhanced possibility of war by miscalculation – but which does still remain remote.

  24. Disappointed THAAD wasn’t used y’day. I guess US weapons manufacturers don’t want anyone using a product that makes a large chunk of their sales catalogue worthless?

  25. Colin

    I thought Cnut was what a dyslexic poster thought about AL-URQA and his posts.

  26. AL URQA

    @” But not wanting to single out North Korea:”

    Do you know-I was just starting to wonder when I would get “what about Israel”.

    You didn’t disappoint.

    So now we have your equation that Israel =North Korea I will slide out of this conversation :-)

  27. S Thomas

    Indeed-Cnut The Great. ! :-)

  28. Trevor,

    THAAD wasn’t used because it’s a Terminal Phase interceptor.

    It intercepts a missile descending towards it.

    One based to the South of Pyongyang can’t intercept a missile launched East towards Japan.

    Similarly as it was crossing Japan near the apex of it’s trajectory over 700 miles up, it couldn’t be intercepted their either.

    Peter.

  29. @ PETER / COLIN – thank you both for your replies. The Aussie URL link especially helpful.

  30. Colin, Al Urqa, St T and Redrich
    A bunch of Cnuts!
    Eadric Streona was one of the Great king’s advisors who he had promised to “raise higher than any man in England”, yes that’s right he had his head chopped off and stuck on a pole.

  31. “Do you know-I was just starting to wonder when I would get “what about Israel”.

    You didn’t disappoint.

    So now we have your equation that Israel =North Korea I will slide out of this conversation :-)”
    @Colin September 15th, 2017 at 4:00 pm

    Very prescient of you! Just remember I didn’t bring up the UN. I have no beef with either place. You seem to be the one wanting to use the UN as some sort of measure of validation. It seems to me unfair to have the one without the other.

    As to your equation, that is not what I said. Now if you were to write it thus:

    Israel > North Korea

    I would say that is more accurate.

  32. Interesting evidence from HMRC to the Treasury Select Committee regarding Brexit and the customs implications.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/sep/14/hmrc-chief-warns-post-brexit-border-and-tax-checks-could-cost-up-to-800m

  33. German Elections – non-event?

    I mentioned a while back that DD would be in no rush to discuss money until Merkel was safely back in. Wasn’t a big issue but at the margin maybe a very small factor in stringing things out (CON party conference and then budget probably both bigger factors in delaying)

    Getting closer now so wondered if worth reviewing.

    I don’t think Brexit has any relevance to the German election but does the German election have any relevance to Brexit?

    Although very minor I see the outcomes with guesstimate %s as
    Best outcome – Merkel with just FDP (15%)
    OK outcome – Merkel with current partners again (60%)
    OK outcome – Merkel with Jamaica/Green only partner (15%)
    Nuisance outcome – anything with Schulz (10%)

    Anyone see it differently, think it might be important or think I’m way of the outcomes?

    I don’t think May speaking a few days before has much significance but happy to discuss conspiracy theories!

  34. @”Israel > North Korea”

    Got the Message AL. :-)

  35. Revision to above. Anything with Schulz (<5%), odds lengthened in last few days:
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.128390571

  36. TREVOR WARNE @ BZ

    Adding in 10 DUP might make it theoretically possible to get Corbyn into #10 with no GE but is that really something you see as realistic.

    I wasn’t joking but rather trying to apply the logic the DUP might use.

    1. Despite May’s “precious union” remarks, the Cons don’t seem to be worried at the idea of a hard border, particularly if their jocular Irish positioning paper is anything to go by.

    2. SoS Brokenshire seems to have given up on Stormont and is threatening that direct rule will be imposed PDQ.

    3. If the Cons had any meaningful contacts within SF they would have used them by now and Stormont would be up and running again, albeit at unknown cost.

    4. The DUP have nothing to gain by a new GE. At the very most they might pick up the North Down seat of Lady Hermon, who often votes with Lab anyway.

    5. An early general election would probably result in a Lab minority government with SNP C&S but have no need to rely on DUP votes. Alternatively, it might just result in a Con majority government which has no need to kowtow to the DUP or just possibly revert to the status quo.

    6. If the Cons lose an official FTPA confidence vote, then the DUP would either give confidence to Lab or ensure a fresh UK GE in which they have nothing to gain and much to lose.

    7. If DUP really do want a soft border, as they claimed during the EU referendum campaign and still do in public, what choices do they have other than to put Lab in at the 2nd FTPA confidence vote?

    8. The SNP, LDs and the Green MP all want to stay in the EU and would hardly object to a long transitional period within the single market or bring a Lab minority government down.

    9. SF probably would prefer an Irish Sea border, but at least in public they support retaining the existing soft one and would find it hard to argue against.

  37. S THOMAS

    “I thought Cnut was what a dyslexic poster thought about AL-URQA and his posts.”

    Nice to see you are as charming and graceful as ever.

    COLIN

    “Indeed-Cnut The Great. ! :-)”

    You exceed yourself.

    Anagrams are, of course, great fun; if you put together S THOMAS and COLIN, you can rearrange to LOON SCAM HITS – my generic headline preciction for April 1st 2019, unless someone in the British goverment gets a grip pretty soon. There won’t be many people laughing though…

  38. @ BZ – agree on #2, the rest seems like very wishful thinking but good luck! LAB selling out the heartlands over Brexit (to get SNP and LD on board) should mean CON win the next GE proper with a clean majority. I’d give you huge odds that a 5-6 party LAB C+S minority govt wouldn’t even get as far as agreeing a QS let alone passing it. In a parallel universe I’d enjoy watching him try though :)

    Have a great evening!

  39. pieface

    Dont give up your day job – unless compiling anagrams is your day job !

  40. S THOMAS

    Received, but unread.

  41. PIEFACE

    @”You exceed yourself.”

    Thanks-too kind !

  42. New Scottish independence poll from Survation:

    Scottish independence poll

    Yes: 45.8%
    No: 54.2%

    DKs/Undecideds removed

    Survation (8-12 Sept)

    https://t.co/uiIZIEh7VF

  43. @COLIN

    regards Kim. I think that everything he has done so far is actually rational. I also believe everything that Trump has done so far is also rational. Both have a priority of staying in power.

    If you take Kim position he has seen long terms issues to the west essentially lose because of a lack of weapons of mass destruction. he has seem the idea of the axis of evil and the removal of them come to fruition. He needs a capability not to hit the USA allies but the USA itself. Without such then there is no guarantee that the North Korea will not be destablised.

    So without missile tests or atomic bomb tests there is no deterrent. he only need look at Syria, Iraq, Libya. Which also points to the reason that Russia and China are just standing by.

    The US can unleash a disaster on the Korean peninsula and just walk away. it becomes China and Russia’s problem rather like the refugee problem of libya and syria has become an EU problem. They understand the destabilization issue well enough.

    Trump despite his low attention span understands which why is up. Just look at the transcript with the Mexican President. his rhetoric is something unique to USA presidential politics,this sort of stuff is consistently used at state and country level but never at the presidential level. it got him the win and now people are considering him unpredictable and possibly guided by aggressive instincts of the .Military. The US needs to be seen to be controlling events and hence North Korea is a pain, because they are not in control and it is very visible.

    lastly N Korea cannot test missiles into the pacific without overflying Japan or South Korea it is just a matter of geography scary yes but for North Korea it adds to the fact that the uS cannot do anyhting about this because they do similar things themselves or else the US would be shooting them down either in terminal flight or at the boost phase. All side can see the other moves they are clear, we are even given warnings of the launches as North Korea has not hidden any preparation.

    Should we be worried? No it is inevitable that North Korea will get the capability, you just can’t keep technology away from people.

    The US are essentially arguing that they need to be untouchable or else the world is in danger because they are the good guys. it is something that all empires do.

  44. COLIN

    Either you do not comprehend the dual nature of the verb, or you are being deliberately obtuse. Please delight us further by specifying which.

    Or perhaps you believe that your former contribution was the wittiest bon mot ever visited upon this site, in which case you have my deepest sympathy.

  45. Survation Holyrood poll:

    ScotParl voting intention (const):

    SNP: 42% (-5)
    CON: 26% (+4)
    LAB: 25% (+2)
    LDEM: 7% (-1)

    Regional list:

    SNP: 31% (-11)
    LAB: 25% (+6)
    CON: 21% (-2)
    LDEM: 10% (+5)
    GRN: 9%

    Changes from 2016 result apparently.

    Scotland

  46. I guess we wold expect some swingback to the SNP if this poll accurately reflects current VI.

    Fom where though?

  47. Hireton
    Your final ‘Scotland’ surely needs three dots after it to express existential despair, thus …

  48. PTRP

    @”Should we be worried? No ”

    Right-I will try to remember that. !

  49. The stalemate with the EU / UK talks seems to be about money. Delay is caused by hardliners on both sides. A deal can be done and probably will be done. The key is a transition deal. That too has problems for both sides. Here is a link to an interesting article even if much of the ground has already been covered. This may be what Mrs May aims to unblock – assuming she now knows her own mind.

    http://www.cer.eu/in-the-press/real-problem-brexit-talks-there-are-hardliners-both-sides

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