The Sunday Times at the weekend had a Panelbase poll of Scotland, their first since the general election. It doesn’t look like Westminster voting intention was asked, but they have figures for Holyrood constituency vote intention, I think the first figures we’ve had from anyone since way back in March (and the first from Panelbase since the Holyrood election in 2016). Topline figures there are SNP 42%(-5), CON 28%(+6), LAB 22%(-1), LDEM 6%(-2). These changes are from the 2016 election. The SNP continue to have a solid lead, but it’s no longer those 20 or 30 point leads we used to see back in 2016.

On Independence the topline figures were YES 40%(-1), NO 53%(nc), Don’t know 6%(nc). Changes are since June, and obviously don’t suggest any meaningful change. NO seem to have consolidated a double digit lead, not the sort of lead that couldn’t be overturned in a referendum campaign, but not the sort of lead I’d imagine would encourage Nicola Sturgeon to push for one too early.

On that question of timing for a referendum, 17% of peple would like a referendum in the immediate future, while Britain is negotiating to leave the EU, 26% would like a referendum after Britain has finishing negotiating to leave the EU, 58% don’t want one in the “next few years”. As I’ve written before, questions like this are very vulnerable to the timebands you offer, but when you add up the pro and anti answers they tend to fall in similar proportions to support for independence – those who’d like independence tend to favour a referendum on independence sometime soonish, those who don’t want independence anyway don’t particularly want a vote on it either. Full tabs for the Panelbase poll are here.

There is also a new YouGov poll of Wales, conducted for ITV and Cardiff University, and also the first since the general election. Westminster voting intention figures stand at CON 32%(-2), LAB 50%(+1), LDEM 4%(-1), Plaid 8%(-2), UKIP 3%(+1). Labour have strengthened their position marginally from what was already a very strong position.

Voting intentions for the Welsh Assembly are:
Constituency: CON 25%, LAB 43%, LDEM 5%, Plaid 19%, UKIP 4%
Regional: CON 23%, LAB 40%, LDEM 5%, Plaid 19%, UKIP 5%
According to Roger Scully if these figures were repeated at an actual Assembly election then on a uniform swing Labour would narrowly regain their majority with 31 Assembly seats.


354 Responses to “New Scottish and Welsh polling”

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  1. Hireton

    Yes, I was aware of some of the Legatum Institute’s membership.

    Katy Hayward has been very involved in blogs that seek to explore some resolution of the NI / Ireland border. I think it deplorable the way the UK government is in the process of destabilising NI

  2. “1. we have free access to the internal market along with the rest of the world;

    2. The eU has free access to the UK market which is the 5th largest in the world;

    3. The eU exports more to the UK than the uk does to to the EU and the balance of trade is in their favour;

    4.In return for them not imposing tariffs on our exports and frictionless customs they want:

    a. us not to impose tariffs on their exports to us and allow frictionless customs;and
    b. pay them for the privilege of exporting more to us than we export to them. We pay them to make money out of us. Brilliant.

    5. In a logical commercial world the EU should be paying us for entry into our market.”
    @s thomas September 16th, 2017 at 8:00 am

    Hmm. Point 1: yes indeed. But that market is behind a tariff wall. If you are not inside it there is a charge imposed on the gate as you enter.

    2: how much of that 5th largest economy are we chopping off by putting ourselves (at our own behest) outside the tariff wall?

    3: Remember exports are often of components, not final products. So the cars we will export to the rEU will have components manufactured in the rEU. Our falling pound will not have helped there. Also on this the EU is explicitly a political union. They have made it plain that it is in their common national interests to link ever closer arms. The tight grip between Germany and France is well known, but there is a common view across the continent. Yes there are descenting voices and you will always get those. But the world is changing very fast, and that is bringing with it a lot of pain. The top and bottom of this is that political unity is still a strong force.

    4: The payments are about improving Europe. OK, originally it was to make sure France was an equal with Germany as Germany had all the manufacturing, and France was mainly agrarian. That is now significantly different, and if you get out to Eastern Europe you will see a lot of infrastructure development. Money well spent. The M60 round Manchester was completed 30 years or so ago. That investment is still generating millions of pounds every day.

    5: The money is to improve Europe for everyone who lives in Europe. In a logical commercial world that is the most sensible thing to do.

    If you see the EU in a here today, gone tomorrow way you really miss the point. If you see it as a 50, 100, 150 year strategy you get a much different perspective.

  3. TREVOR WARNE @ BZ

    Haven’t you noticed that both Con & Lab have been reducing expectations regarding how long quitting is likely to take for some time with announcements of hoped for transition deals?

    All the announcements on timings I have seen have seemed to be rather shorter than they will likely be, which I presume is attempting to break the news to quitters as gently as they can.

    Re the DUP, however, it’s undeniable that they’re good negotiators and would be excellent poker players. What you don’t seem to realise is their actual needs.

    The very last thing they would accept is becoming a special status zone with an Irish Sea border, which would probably have to involve RoI customs officials [or perhaps EU observers] at NI ports. What they promised in the EU referendum was no change in the border, which may well have been the reason why the leave vote was as high as 44%.

    Either they haven’t made HMG aware of this or perhaps they did in a closely guarded secret pact. The latter seems unlikely, though, given the warnings they have given recently about breaking the C&S deal.

    I suspect you’re right that they wouldn’t naturally prefer a Lab government, but at least Lab have made proposals to remain in a transitional deal which will retain the customs union as long as is necessary. It may be that the current HMG are hoping for much the same transitional deal, in which case the DUP will no doubt keep their powder dry for now.

    I do recommend you to keep an eye on Slugger; both for the blogs themselves and for the comments.

  4. “Labour would narrowly regain their majority with 31 Assembly seats.”

    I don’t think Labour has ever won a majority in the Welsh Assembly, so I don’t see how they can regain it, when they have never held it. The best they have ever done is 30 seats, just short of a majority.

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