Two new voting intention polls this week showing very similar figures. YouGov‘s latest poll was actually conducted last week, but was only released today and has topline figures of CON 41%, LAB 42%, LDEM 8%, UKIP 4% (full tabs are here.

The regular ICM poll for the Guardian, conducted over the weekend, has extremely similar topline figures – CON 42%, LAB 42%, LDEM 7%, UKIP 3% (full tabs are here).

ICM also asked about people’s attitudes towards Britain paying a financial settlement as part of our Brexit negotiations (a so-called “exit fee”). ICM asked similar questions back in April and found very little support – only 10% thought paying a £20bn settlement would be acceptable, 15% a £10bn fee and 33% a £3bn exit fee. This time the figures suggested in the question were changed to what are probably more realistic figures and with interesting results – now 9% think a settlement of £40bn would be acceptable, 11% a £30bn settlement, 18% a £20bn settlement, 41% a £10bn settlement.

On the face of it this one might think this is a startling change, a few months ago only 15% thought it would be acceptable to pay a £10bn settlement as part of Brexit, now 41% think it’s acceptable. I think it’s probably actually a good example of the importance of context in a question. Most people are really not that good at putting figures of billions of pounds in context – any sum that involves the words billion is a huge amount of money to begin with, so what would be a relatively small settlement? A moderate settlement? A huge settlement? The only thing respondents have to scale it by is the question itself. In April £3bn was implicitly presented as the small option and £10bn was presented as the medium option. In this poll £10bn is implicitly presented as the small option and £20bn or £30bn are presented as the medium options – hence why a £10bn settlement suddenly seems to be so much more paletable.

That’s not to say the question doesn’t tell us anything at all – there’s still an interesting increase. In April only 33% thought a “small” financial settlement would be acceptable as part of the Brexit deal; now that figure has risen to 41% (despite the actual figure quoted tripling!). It looks as if the public may be moving towards accepting that a financial settlement may be an inevitable part of Brexit.


798 Responses to “Latest YouGov and ICM voting intentions”

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  1. AW

    Any chance of updating the latest polls sidebar please

  2. I think an agreement will be reached on the settlement, I think the disagreement is currently about the way it’s being calculated.

    EU want it calculated area / sector, separately agreed and move to the next. Add up at the end.

    UK want it calculated as a whole.Then agree. UK (wisely) realise that this will end up adding up to less.

  3. DANNY

    Had a quick look at the ICM you posted. First read the rubric, which says they excluded from consideration anyone who said they are not registered to vote.
    I have potential issues with this. Supposedly it is getting easier and easier to register to vote at the last minute, and it might be that certain demographics are more likely to be in this situation but will register last minute. So they might be creating a bias.

    That was my immediate thought as well. Only 84% of the under 25s say they are registered at their current address rather than 95% generally. But looking at the sample sizes they still give the full sample of 1972 on the VI questions. So whether they are re-weighting or the methodology is wrong or they include them in ‘Would not vote’ (but that already looks low if anything) or they remove them at the Table 4 stage, I don’t know. It looks like a bit of a mess, though it probably doesn’t affect the headline figures too much.

    The ICM tables also illustrate a problem that applies to them as well and which I raised before the GE This is the separate treatment of the over-75s in online polls. You suspect those in this age group (the last pre-computer generation) who are members of an online panel may be atypical – more likely to be well-off, male, politically aware and so on. There are usually to few of them in the sample as well, so these votes are weighted up quite a lot.

    Certainly they are very heavily pro-Tory: Con 54%, Lab 16% in this sample. – the last ICM before the GE was Con 62%, Lab 12%. This compares with the most recent phone poll from MORI which not quite so extreme:

    https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/2017-07/pm-july-tables.pdf#page=5

    Con 49%, Lab 24% (all are weighted figures but before LTV etc and before DKs etc are taken out). So it may be that the Labour (and probably UKIP) are being underestimated in this group.

  4. Roger mexico,
    “You suspect those in this age group (the last pre-computer generation) who are members of an online panel may be atypical”

    I’m not sure I did suspect that, but I do agree they might well be atypical, considering this is an online poll. I recall an elderly neighbour of ours whose younger relatives tried to give her a free laptop to go online. She gave it back.

    If (perhaps big if) the group of higher educated elders coincides with the group of online elders, this group is apparently more pro eu and more pro labour. That wouldnt seem so good for labour’s chances here, but I simply speculate.

    One might also speculate that surveys are subject to influence by the self selecting group willing to take part, and that a relatively small demographic (online octogenarians) might be more susceptible to deliberate biasing attacks, should anyone be interested in trying to bring this about. What actual real voting evidence is there to support these opinion poll findings re age group bias?

  5. @toh

    From previous thread, thanks for your ad hominem reply which as ever confirms that you have no response on substantive issues when you are challenged.

  6. Wow big news in Scotland. Not sure how this one is going to play out

  7. CR

    Yep. Big news – the Queensferry Crossing opens for traffic tomorrow!

    Additionally, the leader of (what may or may not be) the 3rd party in Scotland has resigned with immediate effect – just after the real leader finished his tour of the northern reaches.

    Whether that will make any difference to SLab polling is unclear. Indeed, since it’s a very long time since we had any Full Scottish polling, it’s not even apparent how we could measure any effect!

  8. Oldnat

    Missed you

  9. Hum!
    My take on Scottish Labour is that Kezia D was liked by most SLmembers.
    Whereas most SL voters and potential voters, seem keener on Corbyn’s tendency within the LP.
    Looks like a clearing of the decks, just in case there is a second GE.

    The knives are out for BOZZA too apparently, more deck clearing maybe?

  10. Tends to confirm the view that more realism is creeping into the public’s view of Brexit. The interesting point is whether this alters support levels.

  11. Regarding Kezia Dugdale’s resignation. I think she was a very good leader for the Labour party in Scotland.

    She came to prominence at a UK wide level at the time of the Scottish referendum.

    She took over the post of Labour Leader in Scotland at a very challenging time and turned the ship around, defying expectations in the 2017 elections.

    She was a fighter and got a lot of tough personal scrutiny, and not some little abuse, as is standard (I regret) for party leaders.

    I think she showed great personal courage and deserves a positive write up when it comes to assessing her contribution to UK politics generally and Scottish politics in particular.

    She may be taking the right step for her own life, but she is a great loss to public life.

  12. Prof Howard

    Sturgeon wouldn’t disagree with your assessment.

    “We may be opponents, but @kezdugdale led her party with guts and determination and I admired her for that. I wish her well for the future.”

    I suspect that the commentators who are suggesting that her resignation was more motivated by personal rather than factional reasons may be correct – especially if you look at her resignation letter –

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-41082916

    That SLab will now be choosing their 10th leader since 1999 does suggest that their is something of an institutional problem with the office.

  13. I especially liked the tweet from Jenny Gilruth re Kez’s resignation –

    Dignified, compassionate & principled.

    PS @kezdugdale are you now free to wash the dishes?

  14. AW
    Pedantic note. Palatable, not paletable.

  15. Pete B

    I go away for a few days, and you usurp my place as chief pedant?

    For shame, sir!

  16. old nat 11.54 pm

    “does suggest that their is ”

    Oh dear.

  17. If the new SLAB leader is of the Corbyn tendency will we see a leakage of members from the SNP to labour?

  18. “this year’s general election has seen pressure mount on her from supporters of Mr Corbyn, who believe the party’s improvement in Scotland was down to him rather than Ms Dugdale” BBC
    Pure speculation,and unfounded in any evidence that I know of.. Of course there are”left-wingers” and even Corbynistas in the SLP(and she opposed Corbyn and backed Owen Smith) but the predominant concern and work of the party has been in the path which Kezia led with recgonised and increasing skill towards good government and justifiable opposition to SLP weaknesses, and this is likely to have been the basis of success in the last GE, rather than either support or campaigning for Jeremy. My personal support for her FWIW has also been for her early and firm grasp of the facts of migration and its place in the Scottish economy and society in the context of a Brexit Remainer campaign which she resoundingly won.

  19. @cr

    Possibly. There might also be leakage from Slab to SNP! What will also be interesting is how far the new leader seeks to assert the increased autonomy of the Scottish party.

  20. It will be interesting what happens in Parliament over the next 6 months, because the Tories are unlikely to get their way on some issues. They are not in an official coalition with the DUP, so won’t have a majority on select committees. The House of Lords will be motivated to amend legislation much more, because of the Tory position in the Commons. The use of the Parliament act would be difficult, if the Lords refused to give way.

    It is clear that Labour are going to be as difficult as possible and not work with the Tories on Brexit. There is no benefit politically for Labour in helping a Government without a majority on some issues. At some point i would expect Theresa May to be under pressure to resign by some backbenchers in her party, because they don’t like what is happening with Brexit.

    I can’t see there not being a general election during 2018, because of the weak position the Tories find themselves in. Given the problems DUP will have in Northern Ireland with restoring Parliament there sharing Govenment with SF and in dealing with issues caused by Brexit, i can’t see DUP sticking with the Tories.

    Those who passionately support Brexit are going to face a choice between a divided Tory Parliamentary party who cannot implement the Brexit they want and a Labour party position that has a clearer position on Brexit, but one they also disagree with. As was evidenced recently by Labours announcement, the hardline Brexiteers within Labour did not like it. If the Tories announce a very similar position to Labours, then there are many more Brexiteers amongst Tory politicians who are going to be furious. There in no way that Theresa May is going to find a type of Brexit most Tories are happy with.

    I predict that polling on Brexit during the next 6 months will show a big swing to remaining in the EU, because people are not happy with problems it is causing.

  21. @RHuckle

    I agree that the Tories face huge difficulties in the next few months.

    However, your analysis that if they fall there’s going to be huge backtracking on the EU exit is flawed. I think Corbyn is more anti EU by principle than TM!!

  22. R Huckle.

    ”It is clear that Labour are going to be as difficult as possible and not work with the Tories on Brexit”

    Interesting that you see it that way but later in your post point out the divisions in the Tories.

    Labours latest announcement is not far from the Governments position on an interim/transitional deal with the EU.

    Both want to more or less carry on as now with full access to the SM/CU. The difference is the access/membership nugget and with time scale. The option retaining SM membership part of Starmer’s announcement in return for some free movement flexibility is for later and a signal to EU leaders to delay if possible until our next GE.

    NB) I would be surprised with a GE before the interim deal is negotiated, 2019 maybe after through HOC and then the Tories have a new leader.

  23. Hireton

    From previous thread

    As I say it was just your opinion. I demonstrated that you could not back up your original post with facts when challenged. End of story, we have moved on.

  24. Jones,
    Corbyn is a democrat and overwhelmingly the LP (and momentum) membership was in favour of EU membership and now is for maintaining as close as possible a relationship with the EU post Brexit.

    Whatever his own past views and possible ambivalence he will reflect this in his leadership.

  25. @JimJam

    I don’t disagree.

    Labour or Tories, we will be leaving the EU.

    Under Labour it would be a pragmatic approach with a focus on workers and maintaining shared values.

    The Tories would gladly burn all that in the interest of the City and maintaining wealth where it currently resides.

  26. @JONESINBANGOR
    @RHuckle
    “I agree that the Tories face huge difficulties in the next few months.
    However, your analysis that if they fall there’s going to be huge backtracking on the EU exit is flawed. I think Corbyn is more anti EU by principle than TM!!
    August 30th, 2017 at 7:53 am”

    It is true that Corbyn is not a fan of the EU and believes outside of the EU, there is more scope for state intervention e.g renationalisation.

    But i would argue that Corbyn is a democratic leader of his party and he will have to reflect what Labour members, trade unionists and politicians want. Labour has attracted a lot of young supporters who favour remaining in the EU and Corbyn will lose their support, if he does not lead on a sensible position on Brexit. This is why Corbyn fully endorses the recent announcement by Keir Starmer.

    Theresa May on the other hand has backed a Brexit that requires a deal before April 2019 and if she does not get the deal she wants, will just allow the UK to leave the EU presumably with WTO terms applying. Many Tories simply will not accept this position. There is the possibility of Labour winning support of Tory backbenchers on key votes on the EU withdrawal bill, as well as other relevant divisions. There could well be a vote of no confidence passed.

  27. AW,
    Read the yougov writeup by Mat Smith about the latest polling and noted he said labours lead had dropped 7 points. Well thats interesting, I thought, lets look at the raw voting intentions and see where they went.

    Unfortuately the data isnt there. My suspicion is that floating voters have now gone back to the ‘dont know’ camp, where they will lurk pending being called upon to express an opinion again. This data, and their previous voting intention proved a very strong guide to what they would do in the actual election last time and I suspect the same would be true now.

    While pollsters could claim their published results legitimately reported the expressed view of the public at the moment they were asked and disclaimed any intention of predicting how they would really vote, many of us (probably including all the MPs) were interested in predicting the real result, not how things stood today. And if yougov isnt interested in making predictions, we are.

  28. TOH (re Hireton): I demonstrated that you could not back up your original post with facts when challenged. End of story, we have moved on.

    This is rich indeed, coming from Mr “I can’t be bothered to substantiate my views” Howard.

  29. Somerjohn

    The difference between Hireton and I is that I am honest. When I am not interested in backing my views I say so. In the post in question I actually said that something I posted was just my opinion. I asked him to prove my opinion was wrong. He was unable to so as I say end of story we have moved on

    It appears you wanted to engage, to have your usual moan about me. I don’t mind, but if you think posts like yours have any effect, you are sadly mistaken. I post what I want, when I want unless AW intervenes. I clearly irritate you, tough, you will just have to put up with me.

  30. Danny,

    That is what ICM do reallocate DKs and a couple of the other pollsters.

    What did for ICM in the 2017 GE was their turnout filters rather than the DK re-allocation.

    It did mess their LD prediction in 2015, though, as DK’s who were LDs in 2010 broke very differently from the ICM adjustment.

    Personally, I have no problem with YG not re-allocating DKs and ICM choosing to do so it is up to journalists and others to look at trends rather than snapshots.

  31. @Danny

    Unfortuately the data isnt there. My suspicion is that floating voters have now gone back to the ‘dont know’ camp, where they will lurk pending being called upon to express an opinion again.

    I agree.

    Yesterday I recieved a copy of the Electoral Reform Society’s review of the 2017 GE. The results was heralded by some as the return of two party politics, but this analysis is superficial to say the least. The number of people voting tactically doubled from 2015 to 20%, this being about 6,500,000 voters.

    I feel that the big vote for both main parties was not a sudden love for Labour or the Conservatives, but a pick of the least worst option. This is quite normal under FPTP, though perhaps exaggerated in 2017.

    People outside tribal politics and political nerdary (I claim this word!) really struggle to engage with politics much, especially the endlessly tedious to and fro of Brexit, for any length of time. I think many voters are now ‘Don’t Know’ and will not engage or decide until a real election occurs again.

  32. CATMANJEFF

    “People outside tribal politics and political nerdary (I claim this word!) really struggle to engage with politics much, especially the endlessly tedious to and fro of Brexit, for any length of time. I think many voters are now ‘Don’t Know’ and will not engage or decide until a real election occurs again.”

    I thnk thats “bang on” as they say, totally agree.

  33. As Anthony notes most people will just see this as “the small option”. In practice the “settlement” payments will be continuing payments into the EU post Brexit in exchange for some benefits, there is most unlikely to be a lump sum. And naturally the public will want HMG to get the best value of money possible

  34. @R Huckle

    “It is clear that Labour are going to be as difficult as possible and not work with the Tories on Brexit. There is no benefit politically for Labour in helping a Government without a majority on some issues.”

    I disagree here – Corbyn tends to vote for bills if he agrees with them, regardless of the politics. I don’t see him as an obstructionist.

  35. @ THE OTHER HOWARD
    CATMANJEFF
    “People outside tribal politics and political nerdary (I claim this word!) really struggle to engage with politics much, especially the endlessly tedious to and fro of Brexit, for any length of time. I think many voters are now ‘Don’t Know’ and will not engage or decide until a real election occurs again.”
    I thnk thats “bang on” as they say, totally agree.
    August 30th, 2017 at 9:33 am”

    I actually disagree with this. People don’t like to talk Politics because they don’t want to get into an argument. But if you talked to most people about ordinary every day issues e.g food price increases, then the topic of Brexit comes up.

    Whether you like it or not. Many people are going to start blaming Brexit for any negative issues they face.

    Once people start to realise that project fear might have actually been accurate with their predictions, they are going to start looking at Brexiteers blaming them for the problems the country faces.

    Could you imagine the conversations going on around the country, when the Euro becomes a more valuable currency than Pounds Sterling. People that could only just afford to pay for a family holiday to Spain, might face not having their annual holiday in the sun. The cost of buying imports will also be much more expensive with weekly shopping bills increasing.

    Most people have views on political/economic issues and don’t just leave it until elections to make a judgement.

  36. catmanjeff, the other Howard,
    ” the endlessly tedious to and fro of Brexit”
    except that the unique feature of this election which caused the big polarisation and move to the two main parties was Brexit.

    It aint going away as the biggest factor in deciding elections.

  37. CMJ,wall

    Forgive my extrapolation but your view that their are more real DKs and less disappointed but will return home in the end respondents backs the YG none redistribution approach over ICMs 50% for Tory and Lab movers to DK.

    Truth is probably somewhere in the middle but 20% or 30% would also be guess work with no evidence to go on.

    Philosophically, the number of returning DKs will vary GE to GE and by party so attempting to predict is bound to be inaccurate to some degree.
    Maybe YG approach better but either way trend by pollsters with consistent methodologies used is best way of judging developments.

  38. R HUCKLE

    @
    ” But if you talked to most people …………”
    “Whether you like it or not. Many people are going to start …………”
    “Most people have views on political/economic issues and don’t just leave it until elections to make a judgement.”

    You seem to know an awful lot of people. Have you ever thought of contacting YouGov?. You could save them a lot of money.

  39. Big Pub Colin

  40. @R HUCKLE

    Politics is continuous, we form opinions on our leader based on what we see or what is processed for us to see every day. May is now PM. it is her big advantage the media has to cover her whether it is good or bad opposition leaders are less interesting at this stage they cannot do anything unless there is a fight in which then the party becomes interesting.

    Look at the front pages of the papers regarding Labours change of policy. Look at the front pages of the press on SLab resignation. What about Vince Cable, or even the DUP. One would suspect the tories will slowly recover their lead if there is little going on.

    The point is now we cannot the election was a bigger reveal than many campaigns before it. It is now that each party will grind out small wins that make them look like they could do something bigger. I reckon the Labour idea of summer shooliday school dinners for the poor will be eye catching as will the idea of more autonomy but this most probably be met with a formula based on wealth and GDP in terms of redistribution.

    That asside our new normal for the moment is that most things are waiting on brexit. I think most eyes are on what the deal is at the end. The idea is subconsciously after we know what is going on things will ‘settle down’. Now I do not believe in the wisdom of the crowd in this case

    I do not believe that May is strong enough to agree a financial settlement methodology, because that means to her supporters they have separated the payments from the trade deal. I also feel that the EU will need this exit to be a template for any other exits. so I believe they are not as interested in the final amount but are interested in the methodology of calculation and that it is part of exiting not of a new deal.

    I believe each understands the motivation of the other but also understand if they give way on this principle then they are in the case of May completely screwed with their base or in the case of the EU have a mess which can not be replicated if they have to kick out someone or someone else leaves. The point is the EU needs to have a situation where it is clear what the cost of leaving is the UK want s to obfuscate that as much as possible for domestic consumption.

    Anyway as DANNY says Brexit ain’t going away as a big factor

  41. @RHuckle

    I don’t see an election next year. Neither DUP or pro/anti EU in the Tory party want a Corbyn government which is basically what will happen. This is not so much because of current polling as the fact that the Tories will be entering an election divided. Unforeseen events may cause one to happen not least May throwing in the towel and calling everyone B*stards. A split with the DUP is less of an issue for the Tories but random in how that would be playing out..

    Also re the idea that Corbyn support from remain voters is at risk, until such time as Labour gets a say on this matter it is a neutral issue especially as the importance of remain or leave to the average voter is probably not high enough to affect their future voting intention. I think we can see that in the failure of the Lib Dems tactic at the last election to focus on remain- plenty of examples like Cambridge where that should have tipped them over the line if heavily remain areas were only thinking about Brexit.

  42. R Huckle

    “Once people start to realise that project fear might have actually been accurate with their predictions,”

    You mean like Osborne’s forecast of 500,000 extra unemployed if we voted to leave the EU? You may not have noticed but unemployment has continued to go down and unemployment in the UK is less than half the EU average.

    “Could you imagine the conversations going on around the country, when the Euro becomes a more valuable currency than Pounds Sterling. “

    In practice (airport exchange rates) that has happened already or don’t you read newspapers? As it happens I think the £ may fall a little further in the short term. Longer term after Brexit, the £ is forecast to recover and the Euro to decline, but of course they are only forecasts and we might agree that economic forecasts can be very wrong. We will have to wait and see.

    “ The cost of buying imports will also be much more expensive with weekly shopping bills increasing.”

    CPI is forecast to peak in October and then start to fall back. Again just a forecast.

    “Most people have views on political/economic issues and don’t just leave it until elections to make a judgement.”

    And they change their minds frequently depending on how they are feeling and what they read in the news and see in the media.
    You may be right you may be wrong we will have to wait and see.

  43. Jim Jam

    :-)

    Is that the one that Pollsters use?

  44. KD resignation as Slab leader is interesting it may signify a change of the guard. It may be a move to a more devolved Labour party with a separate agenda and lowe concentration on unionism and more on other policies.

    Her personal relationship may also be her undoing. I am not sure she would have told Sturgeon her thoughts on independence but I would have thought she told her partner whom is also a SNP MSP I believe (it would be the sort of conversation that partners would have )

    In the end while I think this election cycle was a combination of the two referenda I am expecting the next to be about policy beyond independence and brexit. after all we will have left the EU by then

  45. PASSTHEROCKPLEASE

    ” I also feel that the EU will need this exit to be a template for any other exits. so I believe they are not as interested in the final amount but are interested in the methodology of calculation and that it is part of exiting not of a new deal.”

    That may be true, but I can’t see us even discussing a figure until they demonstrate in detail how whatever sum is made up, and how it is legally justified. I suspect the reason they are unwilling to do this so far is that there will prove to be very little legal justification. I think it was the Lords who have already said there is no legal basis for any payment.

    Don’t get me wrong I think there will be a payment, but only if we get a reasonable trade deal. If not they get nothing. All just IMO of course.

  46. CambridgeRachel

    “If the new SLAB leader is of the Corbyn tendency will we see a leakage of members from the SNP to labour?”

    I don’t know CR. Is this of any help in forming your opinion? :-)

    http://derekbateman.scot/2017/08/28/a-trip-up-north/#comments

  47. greetings from frankfurt

    still looking for a euro hub for a legal consultancy. Gerry rafferty sang about this town.Dreary.

    On to budapesht! and then to Barcelona and brussels where i might meet the former mayor of a small town although i dont favour early morning drinking.

  48. @THE OTHER HOWARD

    I believe the lords ruling was actually more nuanced than that. It believed that if we left with no deal there was no legal entity that would be able to rule on the money. We would have left the EU and all EU rules are made via ECJ and we will not be under it jurisdiction.

    It was a a simple definition if you are not in the EU you cannot be bound by it’s rules.

    I believe the UK can leave without paying anything it just stalls until March 2019. however under the rules I believe it does have liabilities, even the UK government acknowledges this the problem is that rather like you have said and indeed most leavers have staked, the financial settlement is the only lever the UK has. it is why they want it all sorted at once. The methodology argument is stalling basically.

    The argument is we will give you the money we owe for a trade deal. knowing that the liabilities are judged by the ECJ. As I said to you previously. the methodology is going to be the basis of future tightening of the rules. obfuscation of the financial settlement is not in the EUs interest and it is seen as a point of principle.

    The UK does not care about the principle it just needs a good deal

  49. I think that there is a sort of, somewhat gentler, “live by the sword die by the sword”, crossover likely over the next year.

    Whilst there were large numbers of the electorate who passionately wanted to leave the EU [and have done for many years] it is widely assumed that the votes that tipped that referendum were based, very simply, on people wanting to blame somebody and say “no” to something.

    What I have been pointing out for many months now is that what can happen one way can happen the other. If sufficient numbers feel economic pain or just don’t like the general direction in which the country is being taken then some will inevitably connect it to brexit – even when, as previously, that may not be the case.

    As I have pointed out for many months, there is a majority in all four main parties, and in both houses, that were previously in the “yes” camp. All that they need, to begin to feel a responsibility to revert to that position publicly, is a large enough change in public opinion.

    My guess is that a 60/40 split would be the tipping point. That may not happen of course; on the other hand I don’t think anyone here can categorically say that it won’t and the ripple effects could be very significant.

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