The quiet summer rolls on – for once we have a proper silly season with barely any domestic political news. I’m off for the next week, so won’t be updating even if there are any chunky polls to write about. In the meantime Opinium released their regular voting intention poll last night, which continued to show a small Labour lead – CON 40%, LAB 43%, LDEM 6%, UKIP 4%. Full tabs are here.


795 Responses to “Opinium/Observer – CON 40, LAB 43, LDEM 6”

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  1. PTRP

    Oh give it a rest !

    I think Hireton is right-you ARE Carfrew-and I claim my Free Storage Voucher.

  2. @ TOH

    I quoted Vernon Bogdanor’s opinion and commented that it rings true with many of the Brexiter comments I read on here and other sites.

    Leavers regularly referred to the EU as the EUSSR or as one put it on ConHome today “the fourth Reich”. Yet now those very commentators are furious that the self-same EU doesn’t give us everything we ask for. It’s fantasy politics from beginning to end.

  3. Colin

    Calling a general election?

  4. Blimey, I’ve seen it all now. We’ve descended into vegetable wars as a proxy for brexit……

    I prefer six pieces of cake a day meself.

  5. TOH

    “Norbold

    By and large I eat very fresh picked organic vegetable, what do you eat? Do you eat vegetables at all?”

    How dare you! I am a Trotskyist and, as you well know, we only eat babies.

  6. To TOH by way of a P.S.:

    If you want to know what food I was brought up on, you could do worse than buy a copy of this, available from Amazon or direct from ther author:

    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Pie-Mash-Prefabs-1950s-Childhood/dp/1784181234/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1479513273&sr=1-1&keywords=Pie+%27n%27+Mash+%26+Prefabs

  7. @ BARBAZENZERO
    ” presumably the EU would re-direct regional funding to support improved services from RoI to the Brittany ports if the border closes. That might well be cheaper and quicker than waiting for HMG to build the facilities it will need if it’s out of the customs union.”

    Yes, I can see that plan working out well. Maybe they should consider a bridge, maybe a tunnel?

    Geographical reality means not, and the RoI will rely heavily on existing Euro-routes.

  8. paul croft: I prefer six pieces of cake a day meself.
    Really? I find any more than 4 and the cake does not regenerate overnight.

  9. GUYLEMOT

    Yes-Party advantage in HoC.

    But my question to Alec was in respect of Tory Brexit policies-equivalents of Labour’s new Brexit Policy.

  10. JONESINBANGOR @ BZ

    Geographical reality means not, and the RoI will rely heavily on existing Euro-routes.

    If the UK remains in the EU proper it obviously won’t be an issue but, if not, the queues at UK ports are likely to blossom. Maybe the UK should improve port access in any event.

    If the UK goes it alone, the existing IRL-F truck routes would be safer for all the EU27. Irish Ferries run Dublin to Cherbourg and Rosslare to both Cherbourg and Roscoff. More vessels shouldn’t be an issue, but all 4 relevant ports would need some upgrading.

  11. @Colin – “Which decisions by May -since the Referendum Vote-with regard to Brexit do you think have been party political?”

    Well as pointed out, calling the election was completely Brexit related and completely party politcal, and I wouldn’t let you wriggle out of that one.

    On Brexit policy itself, we could look at the way she defined the referendum as being a vote to end free mvement, t leave the single market, leave the customs union and basically do everything to meet the demands of the hard brexiters.
    For somene who backed remain and supported our membership of the EU, it’s hard for anyone to argue that her entire political decision making since the referendum has been anything other than completely party politcal.

    I’m somewhat staggered that you bothered to even ask the question, if I’m being honest.

  12. @DANNY

    The simple answer to the comment “I do not see why anyone expects them to compromise, or ever has.” is that it is the rational thing to expect if you accept (as almost all do) that there is damage on both sides if there is no deal.

    I think the absence of a deal would be proportionately much more serious for the UK than the EU, and the argument to the contrary on the Leave side is flawed, but I think the EU suffers too. Since it is pretty much inherent in making a deal that there has to be give and take, I would therefore expect a rational EU side to compromise, just not as much as HMG might like,. And that makes the “take it or leave it” intransigence that some appear to defend dangerous brinkmanship.

    It is interesting that this intransigence is in part justified by pleading in aid one of the things about the EU that many even on the remain side see as profound weakness. Its structures are cumbersome, rules based, and inflexible. So it has to be cumbersome, rules based, and inflexible over Brexit. This may be true, but I am not sure it is a good thing.

  13. TOH,

    “I am old enough and wise enough to understand exactly where we and the EU stand,”

    One out of three!

    Peter.

  14. @Hireton – I can’t access that link on Japan, but Open Europe have also posted that there are 19 separate EU/US trade deals in place that we would lose on leaving the EU, unless these are formally agreed bilaterally with the US. This is just to keep us exactly where we are. These include things like trade deals on whisky and spirits, fishing rights in the NW Atlantic, health guarantees over meat exports and aviation agreements.

    The easy assumption to make would be that the US wll simply confirm that these all now apply to the UK indepedentaly and so life will be fine. Will President Trump nod these things through, or would it be in the US’ interests to exact something of a price somewhere along the line when negotiating with a smaller country up against a fixed deadline and a ticking clock?

    I do wonder if the hard Brexiters have really begun to comprehend just how many ducks they need to get in a row just for us to stand still.

  15. @Barbazenzero

    I think you’ll find the Cork to Brittany truck route is very small.

    As with many other issues, the physical geography is impractical to overcome,

  16. JONESINBANGOR @ BZ

    I think you’ll find the Cork to Brittany truck route is very small.

    Yes, I’d forgotten the Brittany Ferries route, but that could obviously be expanded as well.

    As with many other issues, the physical geography is impractical to overcome.

    I’m not sure I understand your point there. Granted the weather can be unkind, but at least the sea is flattish and doesn’t freeze over in those parts.

  17. @ Barbazenzero

    Not so flat in October to March!

    Such optimism.

  18. PeterW
    ” I would therefore expect a rational EU side to compromise, just not as much as HMG might like,. And that makes the “take it or leave it” intransigence that some appear to defend dangerous brinkmanship.”

    I wonder whether the government should get the DUP involved in the negotiations. They are experts at brinkmanship. :-)

  19. @TOH and Norbold

    “By and large I eat very fresh picked organic vegetable, what do you eat? Do you eat vegetables at all?”

    It’s not often I get a genuine belly-laugh out of UKPR (or UKIP as some prefer to call it) but you gave me two: one for TOH’s daft question and one for Norbold’s excellent and very sincere response.

    I imagine TOH will be boycotting bananas until he can get proper bent ones, or perhaps he smuggles them in.

  20. Colin,
    “Which decisions by May -since the Referendum Vote-with regard to Brexit do you think have been party political”

    All of them? The choice of Brexit ministers. The choice of all government ministers. Pandering to their perceived electoral base? Not that I am blaming them, thats what political parties do, they help their side not the other one.

    We just had an election, solely to help the future electoral chances of th conservative party. What did that little exercise slap onto the national credit card?

    Barbazenzero,
    “groundhog day”
    A thought occurs to me. What the tories have to do is involve labour in the process of brexit so as to share the blame for decisions. Because whatever they decide, half the people will dislike it and this cuts across party lines. So how to do this, labour not being in government or part of the negotiations?

    AHA, I have a cunning plan. Engineer deadlock in the negotiations and the matter will have to be debated in parliament. labour will be forced to become involved, whether they vote with or against the government. Better to do this sooned rather than later.

  21. @HIRETON

    https://www.opendemocracy.net/uk/laurie-macfarlane/five-reasons-why-snp-lost-seats-in-general-election

    here is a article that says pretty much what I believe is the issue for the SNP

  22. Peterw,
    ” I think the EU suffers too”

    To me one of the defining moments of this whole process was when Farage and Juncker embraced in the parliament after the result, and both seemed pleased. Farage said we would be off, and Juncker asked him to please hurry up.

    I see these advantages from Juncker’s perspective.
    1)The Uk will not longer block changes or integration.
    2) The UK will suffer economically, but the EU may even gain what with industrial flight from the Uk to other EU areas. This is not the aim, but there will be no economic penalty for the EU and eventually…
    3) The Uk will rejoin the new fully integrated EU because of the economic pain but other issues too, and as a fully committed member. The Uk leaving now might be the only way to get it to become part of an integrated european state.

    So both men saw it as an important step on the way to getting what they want. If you start out believeing the EU is pointless, worthless, dangerous, then you believe leaving is a good thing. if you start out thinking the EU is essential, then leaving can only become an object lesson in the disasters waiting outside.

    But aside from this logical process why it is better to send the Uk on its way, rules are rules, and the EU currently is no more than a huge international treaty. It has some latitude, but this is clearest only where all members can agree unanimously on a course of action. This is rather difficult, especially if any kind of change is required. I can imagine the members reaching agreement to extend talks, but much harder is how to agree to change anything to benefit Britain in particular, which will no longer be a member and no longer have its magic veto on what others might want.

  23. @NORBOLD
    “To TOH by way of a P.S.:
    If you want to know what food I was brought up on, you could do worse than buy a copy of this, available from Amazon or direct from ther author:
    https://www.amazon.co.uk/Pie-Mash-Prefabs-1950s-Childhood/dp/1784181234/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1479513273&sr=1-1&keywords=Pie+%27n%27+Mash+%26+Prefabs
    August 28th, 2017 at 9:09 pm”

    Amazed at the variety Amazon will stock. Great reviews though.

    Perhaps you should send TOH a signed copy !

    I think TOH avoids anything red and anything with European names on his allotments. So not Brussel sprouts or French beans.

  24. ALEC

    @”we could look at the way she defined the referendum as being a vote to end free mvement, t leave the single market, leave the customs union and basically do everything to meet the demands of the hard brexiters.”

    I don’t agree.

    The Referendum Vote was to Leave the EU.

    That means you have to leave the SM & CU. That isn’t party politics-its EU membership obligation. Immigration has been a “salient issue” for voters for ages.

  25. JiB: As with many other issues, the physical geography is impractical to overcome,

    I’ve come across some self-defeating arguments for Brexit before now but this one takes some beating.

    So the sea route between Ireland and Brittany is so arduous as to be impractical, is it? Tell that to the early Christians who regularly travelled that route.

    More to the 21st century point, you appear to be suggesting that a route involving two ferry crossings (or one and a train tunnel) and at least two sets of EU/UK customs procedures plus several hundred miles on congested UK roads, will always be preferable to a single longer ferry crossing with no customs checks.

    Talk about clutching at straws!

    Also, there is a precedent for EU subsidy of a long-distance ferry route to get trucks off the road (St Nazaire-Gijón), and for improvement of port facilities. (Cádiz, for one).

  26. @JiB

    Forgot to add that your point that “the physical geography is impractical to overcome” rather puts the kibosh on all those plans to replace trade with our neighbours with countries on the other side of the world.

  27. R Huckle

    “Amazed at the variety Amazon will stock. Great reviews though.”

    Thank you. Stocking my book is not that amazing! It did get to no. 38 in the UK book charts at one time!

  28. @ALEC
    “@Colin – “Which decisions by May -since the Referendum Vote-with regard to Brexit do you think have been party political?”
    Well as pointed out, calling the election was completely Brexit related and completely party politcal, and I wouldn’t let you wriggle out of that one.
    On Brexit policy itself, we could look at the way she defined the referendum as being a vote to end free mvement, t leave the single market, leave the customs union and basically do everything to meet the demands of the hard brexiters.
    For somene who backed remain and supported our membership of the EU, it’s hard for anyone to argue that her entire political decision making since the referendum has been anything other than completely party politcal.
    I’m somewhat staggered that you bothered to even ask the question, if I’m being honest.
    August 28th, 2017 at 10:55 pm”

    Theresa May when she took over from Cameron tried to convince people that she was different to Cameron. That she would not be a slick saleman and would be straightforward with less spin and would respect Parliament. To a certain extent she has done this, but she has not managed to move away from political game playing.

    There is no doubt that Theresa May was convinced to hold the election on leadership to implement Brexit. This failed, as the country is split on Brexit.

    The Electoral Reform Society recently calculated that about 6 million people may have voted tactically in the election. Many of these were remain supporters who voted mainly Labour, because they wanted to prevent a majority Tory Government implementing a hard Brexit.

    I do think there is a problem with many Tory supporters who now believe that Brexit is good politically for the Tories. They seem to believe that if a Tory Government successfully implements Brexit, that they will gain politically from this. Some Tories with this view many even have voted remain or not voted at all. What they forget is 16 million plus people are more interested in the economics for their families e.g jobs, inflation, cost of buying goods. They can implement Brexit, but if the ecomomics are bad, voters will blame the Government.

  29. JONESINBANGOR @ BZ

    Not so flat in October to March!

    Yes, but it’s all relative. The Biscay ferries from S. England run right through the winter with freight traffic, whereas although I’m a keen sailor I wouldn’t dream of sailing a small yacht from Spain to Blighty at any time of the year.

    If the UK stays in the customs union then the 2 ferry IRL to rest of EU routes may survive, although getting the E&W ferry access roads up to a reasonable standard should be an urgent priority.

    If not, the double customs checks involved in getting goods from the RoI to the rest of the EU may make those routes effectively unusable, especially if coupled with the use of motorways near ports as lorry parks.

  30. Danny: To me one of the defining moments of this whole process was when Farage and Juncker embraced in the parliament after the result, and both seemed pleased. Farage said we would be off, and Juncker asked him to please hurry up.

    And this, IIRC, after Farage’s Braying Ass speech to the Parliament. I didn’t see it as defining at the time, but from a longer perspective, I would have to agree with you.

    I think your points 1], 2] and 3] are correct too. Overall, it looks like the EU is coming out of this rather well, and that the UK will re enter having to accept a whole load of change including things like the Euro, which were always sold as reasons to leave but which could have been prevented for ever and a day had we voted to remain.

    But aside from this logical process why it is better to send the Uk on its way, rules are rules, and the EU currently is no more than a huge international treaty. It has some latitude, but this is clearest only where all members can agree unanimously on a course of action.

    A family is no more than a marriage certificate – heck, some families get by very successfully even without that. Been said before, but yes, the UK’s problem is looking at it from a Treaty perspective rather than as a way of getting on together.

  31. @COLIN
    “ALEC
    @”we could look at the way she defined the referendum as being a vote to end free mvement, t leave the single market, leave the customs union and basically do everything to meet the demands of the hard brexiters.”
    I don’t agree.
    The Referendum Vote was to Leave the EU.
    That means you have to leave the SM & CU. That isn’t party politics-its EU membership obligation. Immigration has been a “salient issue” for voters for ages.
    August 29th, 2017 at 9:41 am”

    That was not on the ballot paper. Some voted leave because they thought the NHS would receive £350 a week extra funding.

    You can still leave the EU, but retain arrangements with the EU in regard to EU single market/customs area.

    The EU is a club of 500 million consumers with agreed rules. If you leave the club, but still want access to the facilities, then you need to negotiate access.

    If you don’t really want to negotiate with the EU club, then you need to be honest with the UK public what the consequences are. If the UK public don’t like what the Government is doing then they are entitled to review their decision. Some people don’t want another referendum, because they are worried that people may have changed their minds.

    The UK does not legally leave the EU club until March 2019 and may retain membership if the other club members agree.

  32. OLLYT

    Thanks for replying, I was more interested in who you think has posted like that on the UKPR website. I cannot think of any recently. I agree that you can find such comments elsewhere.

    Hireton

    You did not reply to my 7.30 post last night, so you were just giving your opinion, there are no facts to back it up. That’s fine, you have every right to an opinion as do I.

    Monochrome October

    In reply to your 7.44. I’ve not seen any tantrums from the few Leavers who still post here, so no need. As for the German businessmen who seem to be increasing unhappy at the lack of movement, I’m afraid I have no influence. Perhaps you can help there.

    Norbold

    Thanks for your reply and the postscript. The reply was amusing, and the post reminded me of my youth. I had a couple of friends who lived in prefabs in the 40s and 50s when I was growing up and I often eat with them and their parents. Since I was born in 1940 I can remember the wartime diet and rationing. The following are good guides as you seem interested in such things.

    The Ration Book Diet Paperback – 9 Dec 2004
    By Mike Brown (Author), Carol Harris (Author), C J Jackson (Author)
    The War-Time Kitchen: Nostalgic Food and Facts from 1940-1954 Paperback – 15 Jun 2004 by Marguerite Patten (Author)

    Peter Cairns SNP

    Sorry Peter, you are obviously having trouble expressing yourself. What did you mean by your 10.58 post, it seems nonsense to me?

    GUYMONDE

    “It’s not often I get a genuine belly-laugh out of UKPR (or UKIP as some prefer to call it)”

    Why would anybody call it UKIP, UKPR is mostly a Remainers talking shop at the moment which is why so many have left the site, at least temporarily.

    As to bananas I’m not a great fan but they have come in handy on trips to some remote areas in SE Asia where local foods are a bit dodgy

    R Huckle

    Very amusing, as it happens I am very fond of Brussel sprouts and French dwarf beans and grow both, and horror of horrors, my runner beans have scarlet flowers. :-)

  33. I was told yesterday that I was having a tantrum which was easily dismissed. However it would appear that Bernier had one. I think it is at last starting to dawn on him that the EU won’t get a single brass farthing unless there is a trade deal with the UK. So what does he do, says that Brexit will have practical consequences for UK security. Absolute nonsense but it could threaten EU security who are very dependant on us in this area.

    In other news I see that the Labour MP for Blackley and Broughton said the party’s new brexit stance was “Chaos” an told Radio 4s PM programme there was a risk to democracy if MPs tried to sabotage the referendum result and Britain did not leave the EU.

    All very amusing.

    Cricket will be fascinating today.

  34. PETE B @ PETERW

    I wonder whether the government should get the DUP involved in the negotiations.

    A good idea. If nothing else, it would clarify to everyone in Ireland what the DUP position on the RoI – NI border really is. Donaldson would seem to be the obvious candidate [1] as DUP rep, given his belief in the ready availability of IT solutions to the issue.

    [1] His personal biography shows that he was Trade & Industry spokesman in Parliament for the Ulster Unionist Party before defecting to the DUP and he has been involved in leading a number of trade delegations to countries like the United States and China to promote Northern Ireland as an ideal centre for new companies to locate in the European market place. Although, perhaps oddly, it doesn’t mention his IT expertise.

  35. Good morning all from a lovely sunny Central London.

    Hope you all had a great bank holiday weekend…

    Still no polls? Are they buggers on strike?…. Anyway what about that Liverpool result!! The late Sir Bruce Forsyth would have said…

    “Didn’t they do well”.

  36. DANNY @ BZ

    I have a cunning plan. Engineer deadlock in the negotiations and the matter will have to be debated in parliament. labour will be forced to become involved, whether they vote with or against the government. Better to do this sooned rather than later.

    Isn’t that what Davis is trying to do already, at least re deadlocking the negotiations?

    It does at least give May the option of inviting Corbyn to form a National Government with her in a sort of reverse Ramsay MacDonald initiative if her objective all along was to let the arch quitters try to negotiate a path to brexit glory and fall on their swords should they fail.

  37. @ALEC

    I believe treaties and trade agreement have to be ratified by congress and the senate. So I believe any treaty with the UK will be seen as a new treaty and will have to go through the ratification stage.

    We forget that US presidents have very little power compared to UK PM. The only thing they can do is declare war but if the house does not fund it it does not happen for long. This was how the vietnam war was ended by simple defunding in the end

  38. @COLIN

    leaving the EU can mean anything from EEA membership all the way to WTO.

    Norway, Iceland Turkey or Switzerland are not in the EU as an example each has a relationship where they either accept one or more of the following CU, FoM or SM. The view of what leaving the EU meant was rather contentious with people of all sides giving an opinion.

    The question on the ballot was not about leaving the Single Market or the Customs Union per se, it is just that the vote has now been interpreted as such by different people.

    I think the government has nailed it flag to leaving the SM and CU and no FoM. but replicating the SM and CU with a FTA.

    So technically we could join the EEA and still abide by the ‘will of the people’

  39. @COLIN

    “The Referendum Vote was to Leave the EU.
    That means you have to leave the SM & CU. ”

    Factually incorrect. Norway and Switzerland are in the SM and CU but not in the EU.

    I think what you meant to say is that YOU think that we should leave the SM and CU because of the referendum result. But that’s just your opinion, certainly not a fact.

  40. TONY EBERT

    Well if you really are keen on precise language.

    This is how BBC Reality Check reports Norway’s position vis a vis SM:-

    ” Norway has full access to the single market but is not in the EU. It pays a contribution to the EU Budget to gain that access and has to sign up to all the rules of the club – including its common regulations and standards.
    People from across the EU are free to live and work in Norway too, but the country is exempt from EU rules on agriculture, fisheries, justice and home affairs. The downside for Norway is that it has no say over how the rules of the Single Market are created.”

    and Switzerland’s :-

    ” It has a free trade agreement with the EU and a number of bilateral agreements, which give it access to the Single Market for most of its industries.
    However, it does not have full access to the single market for its banking sector.”

  41. “GUYMONDE

    “It’s not often I get a genuine belly-laugh out of UKPR (or UKIP as some prefer to call it)”

    Why would anybody call it UKIP, UKPR is mostly a Remainers talking shop at the moment which is why so many have left the site, at least temporarily.”
    @The Other Howard August 29th, 2017 at 10:07 am

    You clearly missed this post from Jim Jam, that started the UKIP references:

    “I come on UKIP to learn and adding Guddle to my vocabulary when in Scotland (and I assume now NI) has fulfilled that role this morning. Not being patronising, Sam, I liked the sound of the word so had to look it up.”
    Jim Jam August 25th, 2017 at 9:39 am

  42. The Other Howard: I was told yesterday that I was having a tantrum which was easily dismissed.

    Where were you told that? Down the allotment? Because it wasn’t on this site.

  43. New YouGov Poll

    Con 41
    Lab 42
    LD 8
    UKIP 4
    Green 1

    Fieldwork: 21st – 22nd August 2017

    Full tables here:

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/hm2d5c6net/TimesResults_170822_VI_Trackers_W.pdf

  44. Thanks Barony…a poll at last.

    Labour still holding up well but doubt they would win more seats than the Tories on them numbers.

    SNP in the tables polling 10% above Labour and Tories look as if they are slipping back on 23%.

    Overall for the UK VI the Lib/Dems are still suffering from the Vince bounce…

  45. Barny,

    Thanks for the link…more now saying we were wrong to leave the EU and a big more pessimistic change to the numbers thinking it will be bad for jobs.

    That fits in with PB a few days back which showed Labour leave voters more likely to see that leave isn’t worth it if it costs jobs.

    TOH,

    “Sorry Peter, you are obviously having trouble expressing yourself. What did you mean by your 10.58 post, it seems nonsense to me?”

    You were only right about the “Old” bit!
    Not understanding it covers your claim to wisdom!

    Peter.

  46. @HIRETON

    Just to complete my view of the issues that SNP had problems on

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/scotland-public-sector-pay-cap-end-freeze-snp-nicola-sturgeon-scottish-first-minister-a7823146.html

    and the turnaround of such policies notice the argument used for defending the 1% pay cap was very much in line with the Tories view.

    it maps to the article that was written by your daily mail henchmen (sometimes reading the what the opposition writes about you will contain a kernel of truth amongst the lies)

    Again BES study shows that whilst SNP lost some votes from their Yes/Remain cohort mainly to labour, they lost the majority of their No/Leave voters but rather paraphrase the conclusion it is easier for you to read it yourself

    http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/bes-findings/a-tale-of-two-referendums-the-2017-election-in-scotland/#.WaVHVz595hE

    Lastly there are good reasons why Scotland needs the extra money spent on it. For example the sparseness of popultion thus te extra cost of providing services such as health, policing, the fact that some functions which are privatised in the rest of the UK are under public ownership in Scotland such as water. There has also been an inherent lack of infrastructure spending on intra scottish communication for example but I think that to

    https://fullfact.org/economy/tax-and-spending-scotland/
    https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2014/may/28/would-scotland-be-economically-better-off-it-was-independent

    I still maintain the view that the SNP could have had more progressive policies, I also believe that Tories outflanked them with No/Leave and Yes/Leave crowds in a manner that I fear will be sustainable until brexit is delivered and is seen to fail, if it does.

    I fear your fixation with issues outside my main thrust was a deflection of the real issue which was essnetially why the SNP did not do as well as they did in 2015. One could argue the misstep on concentrating on independence was an issue and then having problems of governance and policy made talking about independence looking like a deflection.

    The SNP is still the largest party by seats and by votes 38% is still a success and one could inevitably conclude that it’s success in 2015 was unsustainable they had gathered NO voters to their side or else I would imagine they would not have got 50% of the vote in the first place. That said they remain weakened with 4 seats with less than 200 vote majorities. Which I believe will need a move towards anti austerity measures and finding ways to implement them.

  47. Sorry that should be Barny.

  48. BARNY

    Thanks for the heads-up on the new YouGov Poll.

    There’s also a Matt Smith article on the YouGov site, also with links to the tables.

    Let’s hope AW has time to put up a new thread on it soon.

  49. @bz

    ROI goods transiting through the UK would be covered by the UN TIR agreement unless of course the Brexiters want to withdraw from that!?

  50. @COLIN

    Thanks for your info about Norway and Switzerland. It shows that a country can be in the Single Market while not being in the EU. This contradicts what you said.

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