We’re heading into Summer and the silly season now, so don’t necessarily expect much polling (August tends to be quite anyway…the month after a general election even more so). This is just a quick update on the latest YouGov voting intention figures, which are CON 41%(nc), LAB 44%(+1), LDEM 7%(+1). Fieldwork was Monday to Tuesday and changes are from a fortnight ago. Full tabs are here.


891 Responses to “YouGov/Times – CON 41%, LAB 44%, LDEM 7%”

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  1. Remainers

    i just wish i knew exactly what the leavers object to about brexit? Now that may seem strange but it would be useful to articulate beyond “disaster or apocalypse”exactly what their grievances are?

    1. I know they fear the “mildly negative ” economics effects(IMF)
    2. I know some are personally affected by the nationality of relations;
    3. I know some are worried about the security position in NI

    but these cannot,surely, be what drives posters day after day to scour self validating newspapers and blogs and post them on this site. It just seems rather sad.

    If the vote had been for remain I would have accepted it and moved on and regarded those who kept on and on about it as being mildly obsessive. Oh comes the retort but Farage would have kept on even if he had lost.But posters ought to reflect on what they think of Farage and as to whether he is a single issue obsessive and perhaps view their responses to brexit by the same light albeit from a different angle.

  2. classic hoist on own petard

    Leavers= remainers

  3. I’m relying on the summary as I don’t have free access, but the Times article looks like a good example of a self-validating circular argument to me.

    It is the essential purpose of the so-called repeal bill that it will facilitate the divergence of UK law from the EU instruments from which it originally derived, albeit that this should happen in a gradual manner and not overnight.

    So it looks not so much sinister as logically necessary that a bill that facilitates the divergence of UK and EU law should also remove the right to sue the government in the event that this divergence happens.

  4. My own views on what Brexit could mean?

    Trade
    * Negotiate a continued membership of the Customs Union, and essentially maintain access to the Single Market.
    * Avoid any tit for tat tariffs

    Freedom of movement
    * Maintain visa free movement between UK and EU. Maintain existing arrangement with RoI.
    * Allow EU nationals a right to work in the UK on a quota basis, but employers to pay a “super” NI rate for non-UK nationals for 5 years.
    * End “sending home” any in work benefit.
    * Serious consideration of introduction of unified ID / Driving Licence system, and more frequent checks on public transport as in EU.
    * Above ID system to replace need for passports for travel to EU

    Fishing
    * Existing UK quotas held by EU operators to be extinguished and repatriated
    * All fish to be landed at UK ports, otherwise a “fish tax” to be paid for fish caught in UK waters and landed in EU ports.
    * Long term Government investment in UK “value added” fish processing capability and port infrastructure
    * Grants for new entrants

    Agriculture
    * End to the “money for old rope” subsidy system
    * Money for long term environmental and infrastructure benefits in UK agriculture, not production
    * Support smaller farmers and new entrants
    * Focus on value added, high welfare agri

  5. PeterW

    Exactly, I personally have to hope that my government will avoid explicitly messing up my life but I have no confidence that it will be the case. At the moment it seems they are looking for a position which is more likely to screw me up (either intentionally or because noone has looked at the details yet) than the EUs position.

    Therefore I see my own government as my enemy in this and am hoping for a win from the EU with regards to rights to people to maintain their lives post Brexit, as they seem more interest in something significantly more comprehensive which will stop as many people falling through the cracks as possible.

    I’m prepared for the doors to slam shut behind me, unable to return without losing significant rights.

  6. @S Thomas
    But we have told you, you just choose not to listen or respond.

    My personal list of fears would include:
    – that we will fail to put in place adequate systems or processes to cope with all the complexities of managing trade across a customs barrier
    – that we will encounter a raft of unintended consequences of leaving, weakening our ability to deliver to citizens on areas from security cooperation to cross-border insurance to animal welfare
    – that we will fail to put in place effective trade agreements with the EU
    – that trade agreements with key non-EU countries will be damaging to the UK and lead to an even higher balance of payments deficit
    – that we will supress the availability of staff to support key industries, notably care, health and agriculture
    – that leaving the EU will be used as a pretext to reduce safeguards on which people’s lives and health depend
    – that leaving the EU will be used as a pretext to reduce taxation and the services on which the poorest depend
    – that leaving the EU reduces my childrens’ opportunities to pursue their chosen careers and/or enjoy the freedom to live and work across Europe
    – that the EU as we leave, will be blamed for internal failures, as it has been while we have been a member this allowing the establishment to kick the can even further down the road in respect of addressing the existing major failures in UK governance around housing, economic restructuring, chronically low investment
    – that our government is riven with division and has no consistent or meaningful plan to follow, which is likely to result in a very bad outcome, even if the situation was far easier tan it is
    – that many of that ‘left behind’ group that voted leave will see their legitimate grievances ignored and hopes trashed by the hard-right elite who have led the leave movement, and will be even more disengaged, angry and volatile as a result.

    Others have listed very specific fears around Northern Ireland, the impact on the devolved nations, for particular sectors of industry, or in their own areas of expertise.

    If anything there has been too much specificity about our fears!

  7. NULKY

    @”It is that right for the country as a whole to decide upon a new direction that many brexiteers hold on to even though the more reasonable ones recognise that sometimes that may mean going in a direction that they personally do not believe in.”

    Exactly.

  8. BARNY

    @”We have a pretty good idea what would happen if we’d stayed”

    I think that unlikely.

    IMO the status quo-in EU but outside EZ will not be sustainable as Greater & Deeper UNion is pursued. In particular the sticking plaster of Fiscal oversight + those mandated “golden Rules” for member states will be replaced by the obvious requirement for Total Fiscal Union to sit alongside Monetary Union. At this point all Member States lose significant chunks of Sovereignty as EZ/EU moves towards Political UNion , & Non EZ members of the EU find themselves in a position of total detachment from EU economic policy , whilst being subject to all the law making & budgetary demands.

    With respect , you cannot possibly have a good idea of life “if we stayed”.

  9. ON

    “Anthony? (Can’t remember whether you have done an Irish thread before, but the symbol on the header is going to need careful thought! :-) )”

    A potato.

  10. @Colin
    We have a reasonable idea, because we would still have veto over the major decisions that might affect us, and no UK party has any intention of joining the monetary union.
    I agree that the road map for EUR members is much sketchier, but since we aren’t part of that we would be substantially unaffected.

    Anyway that is currently all moot… the live issue is, what will Brexit look like?

  11. “Can there be anyone who would support Lee Rigby’s murderers staying alive, for instance?”

    Me.

  12. BFR

    An interesting list -my thoughts:-
    @
    “– that we will fail to put in place adequate systems or processes to cope with all the complexities of managing trade across a customs barrier.
    – that our government is riven with division and has no consistent or meaningful plan to follow, which is likely to result in a very bad outcome, even if the situation was far easier tan it is”

    These are fears of a gigantic cock-up during negotiations. . They are not unreasonable.

    @
    “– that we will encounter a raft of unintended consequences of leaving, weakening our ability to deliver to citizens on areas from security cooperation to cross-border insurance to animal welfare”

    Why should security cooperation & cross border animal welfare be weakened if the British Government wishes them not to be weakened. This is a fear a UK Government which does things you won’t like.

    @”
    – that trade agreements with key non-EU countries will be damaging to the UK and lead to an even higher balance of payments deficit”

    Why would a UK Government enter a FTA which damages UK?

    @”– that we will supress the availability of staff to support key industries, notably care, health and agriculture”

    Why would UK supress the availability of immigrant labour which its Immigration Control Protocols say are required?

    @”– that leaving the EU reduces my childrens’ opportunities to pursue their chosen careers and/or enjoy the freedom to live and work across Europe”

    This is a fear of some detriment in employment prospects for your own family. Others may be looking forward to increased employment prospects in UK as a result of revised Migration Rules.

    @”– that leaving the EU will be used as a pretext to reduce safeguards on which people’s lives and health depend
    – that leaving the EU will be used as a pretext to reduce taxation and the services on which the poorest depend
    – that the EU as we leave, will be blamed for internal failures, as it has been while we have been a member this allowing the establishment to kick the can even further down the road in respect of addressing the existing major failures in UK governance around housing, economic restructuring, chronically low investment”

    These are fears of a Democratically elected UK Government after Brexit. An implicit fear of a Conservative Government. You will need to vote for what you want-just like me & everyone else.

    @
    ” that many of that ‘left behind’ group that voted leave will see their legitimate grievances ignored and hopes trashed by the hard-right elite who have led the leave movement, and will be even more disengaged, angry and volatile as a result.”

    This a an explicit fear of a Conservative Government in UK-from which you think the EU can keep you safe from countless evils which you believe they will enact.. It is anti-democratic . I rest my case.

  13. Syzygy

    You may wish to respond to Paul Croft @ 2:59 as well, in terms of “gratuitous bitchy remarks” towards the Irish.

    That Punch of London frequently used that characterisation of the Irish in the 19th century would be an inadequate explanation, for any reasonable person to mock the events of the Irish Potato Famine.

    Presumably you would want to avoid colluding with that attitude?

    http://www.historyireland.com/18th-19th-century-history/punch-and-the-great-famine-by-peter-gray/

  14. Colin

    You have in your last post demonstrated exactly why the labour remain campaign was such a disaster. It boiled down to, “we can’t win an election promising worker protections so we need the EU to do it for us, ditto many other things we would like to offer you but can’t win an election if we do” that’s what I felt the whole way through the Brexit campaign and it made me so angry. Thank God for Corbyn!

  15. @Colin
    I have a long post in moderation (which is probably a relief to many!), but to summarise, I think you have misinterpreted a number of my concerns as anti-Tory when they are more accurately anti- the establishment/political class.

    However I can’t accept your characterisation of anyone who doesn’t trust the current government not to cock things up as anti-democratic; this is not Russia or Turkey, and we are still allowed to doubt and criticise our leaders.

  16. CR

    I meant {but forgot :-( } to compliment you on your comment re the Irish economy the other day.

    We all have areas where we are ill-informed, and old assumptions are allowed to continue.

    You showed an honesty in saying that, which is unfortunately not often demonstrated by the rest of us.

  17. A week away on holiday and I see that the Brexit debate still rages on here.

    We really do need some polls.

    As for Brexit. The question posed in the referendum was daft and only ever intended by Cameron as something to pull the rug out from under UKIP, to stave off a Tory civil war, and to give him a Unique Seilling Point over Labour.

    Of course, just as in the AV referendum. Cameron, along with most of the establishment. never thought they had any chance of losing.

    But they lost. We are left in the lurch with a government that can’t decide, a warring cabinet, a PM in who is in office but not in power, a country hopelessly divided and we are laughing stocks.

    Maybe Trump will invite North Korea and out us all out of our misery :-)

  18. COLIN
    “Why would UK supress the availability of immigrant labour which its Immigration Control Protocols say are required?
    @”– that leaving the EU reduces my childrens’ opportunities to pursue their chosen careers and/or enjoy the freedom to live and work across Europe”
    This is a fear of some detriment in employment prospects for your own family. Others may be looking forward to increased employment prospects in UK as a result of revised Migration Rules.”

    Not “the UK”, Colin, but the effect of a bureaucratically controlled and restrictive system. The present acceptance of free movement of labour is shown, e.g. in the UK Commission on Employment and Skills 2016 Working Futures Report to contribute to quality and expansion of all labour to the economy and its effects seen in effectively a full (4.6 to 4.8%) unemployment rate. We don’t know, and certainly the Government as seen the comments of Damion Green, does not know what the effect would be of the loss of this high quality and unlimited labour market.

  19. North korea

    Blaming trump for north korea is a bit like blaming Chamberlain for calling out the little Austrian.

  20. John pilgrim

    Don’t worry about immigration.

    When we are forced to sign FTAs with our friends in Asia that include free movement clauses with because we are desperate, there will be plenty of even cheaper people for us to exploit by having them come over here and pick our fruit.

    Surely this is why there are so many right wing movers and shakers wanting Brexit. Or am I being cynical here, and it’s the jolly old British worker that they are looking out for. Hmmmm…..let me think……

  21. S Thomas

    Not blaming Trump for North Korea. But we ought to blame him for some of the Twitter rhetoric.

    So as well as being up for a bit of Brexit based national self harm, you’re also a Trump supporter then?

  22. Danny
    rhuckle

    Just seen the Buzzfeed massive survey about brexit.

    will the last remainer please turn out the light when they leave the room

  23. Interesting new survey. Reported on Buzzfeed, and carried out by the LSE and Oxford uni.

    https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamesball/remain-and-leave-voters-are-surprisingly-united-on-backing?utm_term=.qaqvdMd6X#.ilN05o5GV

  24. “will the last remainer please turn out the light when they leave the room”

    After March 2019, I fear the lights will go out over most of e UK. We won’t see their like again for quite some time”

    A misquote, I’m sure. But this was once said by a British foreign secretary, Grey I believe, in another time and place……

  25. The basic test of sovereignty must surely the right to defend yourself. If North Korea gives up it’s nuclear deterrent it gives up its sovereignty.

  26. Tonybtg

    “there will be plenty of even cheaper people for us to exploit ”

    The Scottish (and smaller English, and Irish trawler fleets)skippers and owners have been exploiting Filipino crewmen for years.

    8 years ago “More than 1,000 Filipinos are estimated to be working in Scotland at the moment, with at least 200 in the Republic of Ireland, 160 in Northern Ireland and an unknown number in England. ”

    I understand little has changed since then.

    https://www.theguardian.com/uk/2008/dec/14/immigration-fishing-scotland-filipinos

  27. TONYBGT
    “it’s the jolly old British worker that they are looking out for”

    @Colin can correct me,but I think it is the jolly old British workers’ jolly old children that they are intending to look out for, but the polls suggest that same jolly old children will jolly well lookout for themselves, including telling them to stick Brexit up their jolly old jumpers..

  28. Pete B

    Thanks for the link. It’ll be interesting to see how the figures break down by polity, when the final report is issued given that “Labour, SNP, Plaid Cymru, and Lib Dem voters all prefer soft Brexit to no deal ”

    Since the report has not yet been peer reviewed, it would also be interesting to know gave a copy to Buzzfeed (and perhaps other news outlets) – and why.

  29. BFR

    @”However I can’t accept your characterisation of anyone who doesn’t trust the current government not to cock things up as anti-democratic;”

    Read my response to your fears again. Read what I actually said.

    I explicitly conceded that a Government cock-up was not an unreasonable fear.

    I said that being pro-Remain for fear of a Conservative ( or any other ) Government in UK is anti-democratic.

  30. ON
    Yes it says it will be fully published later in the year. Plenty of food for debate already though. There are some interesting points such as a majority of both Leave and Remain wanting a zero ‘divorce bill’.

    As to why it was leaked I assume it was for money, but then I can be cynical.

  31. Colin” “Why would a UK Government enter a FTA which damages UK?”

    I think you must know the answer to that.

    There will be enormous pressure on government to deliver on promises of free trade agreements to replace single market membership.

    We have been promised such deals will be quick and easy.

    Sadly, there is no such thing as a quick and easy trade agreement, unless you quickly concede massive advantage to the other side.

    So, given the political imperative to sign deals quickly there will be little incentive to ensure an equitable deal.

    Our wet-behind-the-ears trade negotiators, under immense pressure to sign a quick deal, will be royally (or republically) stitched up by Trump’s extremely proficient, hard-nosed trade negotiators. As for the Chinese…

    But perhaps you would like to list the countries with which you expect us to be able to sign deals more advantageous to us than to them?

  32. tonybtg

    hello to you to! Trump is literally not my president.I dont follow American Politics like you obviously do with all its nuances etc but if the guy is right about something then i will say he is right instead of adopting the BBC position that America and trump are the aggressors in all this.There is a nu**er on the loose on the north korean peninsula building missiles with nuclear warheads who seems out of control firing his rockets towards Japan and possibly Guam.
    we can all join Obama in his mousehole but somebody is going to need to do something about this sometime.

    CR

    That is a dangerous doctrine. One can be a sovereign state without nuclear weapons ie Germany and all of western Europe. your hero the jezzmeister wants to give up nuclear weapons but i am not sure he wants to give up sovereignty. I think you are also overlooking the non proliferation treaty regime as well.
    Still the murderous non democratic regime clearly ,in your eyes, enjoys moral equivalence.

  33. JOHN PILGRIM

    @”a bureaucratically controlled and restrictive system”

    Well I suppose some bureaucracy will be involved god help us. Even I have to concede that controlling our own borders will need a bit of that.

    But why “restrictive”. I think you are making judgments before the new post Brexit policy is proposed. My feeling is that it will accomodate business imperatives & key requirements whilst being mindful of the harmful effects on community cohesion of mass immigration without consent.

    So-I would anticipate it as “a bureaucratically controlled and politically mandated & publicly accountable system”

    @”Damion Green,”

    Never heard of him :-)

  34. SOMERJOHN

    @”So, given the political imperative to sign deals quickly there will be little incentive to ensure an equitable deal.”

    I disagree.

    But you & I will have the comfort of knowing that any political party in power which managed to get an “inequitable” FTA which harmed UK , through Parliament would lose the next GE, and its successor could correct the error.

  35. COLIN
    “I said that being pro-Remain for fear of a Conservative ( or any other ) Government in UK is anti-democratic.”

    But, if they were,in the eyes of the people, constantly prone to cocking things up,and – for example in the Brexit negotiations they were represented by people deemed likely to cock things up, thus likely to deliver a cocked-up Brexit, that would be democratic?
    Just asking.

  36. Tontbtg

    no the lights wont go out because the british taxpayer is paying huge sums of money to scottish wind farms not to produce electricity because we cant use it all.And the sNP are trying to build more onshore windfarms, for which the british taxpayer will have to stump up, for them to not produce even more electricity.

    I think your quote related to a map of Europe.the germans were up to their old tricks again as i recall. Plus ca change.

  37. US Government sources -“Reports that North Korea is moving Hwasong-14, Hwasong-12 missiles. Unclear if launches imminent”

    Glad that I got my shed roof fixed. It would have been unfortunate to meet my doom with a leaking shed!

  38. @S Thomas
    I’m somewhat sceptical as it appears to contradict all the previous polling on hard v soft brexit and the relative priority of remaining in/with access to the single versus immigration controls.

    But any poll looks interesting given the dearth of polling….

  39. JP

    THe Government is operating Democratically I think.

    You pose questions about whether politicians are prone to cock-ups.Of course this involves you making value judgements about particular people in the Government. But in terms of the voter at large. I think most voters understand that they are all prone to cock-ups-even Labour ones. Government is sometimes difficult.

    In a democracy though, if you make too many for the electorates taste -they throw you out at the next GE.

    ……….but you know all this being a thoughtful chap. Why ask me ????

  40. Colin: “But you & I will have the comfort of knowing that any political party in power which managed to get an “inequitable” FTA which harmed UK , through Parliament would lose the next GE, and its successor could correct the error.”

    You may believe that the arcane matter of the economic effects of a FT deal could be the swing factor in an election: I don’t.

    If, for instance, a quick deal with NZ resulted in our market being swamped with NZ lamb and butter, and at the same time our sheep and dairy farmers lost their EU export markets, a few thousand farmers would go bust. Hardly an election-swinger.

    As far as we can tell, the UK government was very happy to go along with TTIP, with its subjection to supranational court judgements etc. It may have excited some Greens and anti-capitalists, but the great British public was profoundly uninterested.

  41. Oldnat

    Has the dear leader tweeted a response to the great leader’s “locked and loaded” tweet?

  42. PETE B

    Thanks for the link to the Buzzfeed article on what appears to be a voodoo poll not conducted by a BPC member. The article concludes with:

    The full findings of the research discussed in this article will be published later this year, following peer review. The researchers were Professor Sara Hobolt and Dr Thomas Leeper of the LSE, and Professor James Tilley of the University of Oxford. The research was funded by the Economic and Social Research Council.

    CORRECTION
    August 11, 2017, at 6:17 p.m.
    The researchers collected six data points each from 3,293 people, resulting in a dataset of 19,758 choices. An earlier version of this story misstated that the researchers surveyed 20,000 people.

    The last para of the article proper states:

    The key lines of division remain over immigration, the ECJ, and the fate of EU citizens in the UK – but for politicians hoping to secure a soft Brexit, or even to stall the process, the research suggests they will have to win over hearts and minds quickly.

    But this is despite a paragraph placed earlier in the text which states:
    Labour, SNP, Plaid Cymru, and Lib Dem voters all prefer soft Brexit to no deal – though generally only by about 60/40 – while Conservative and UKIP voters overwhelmingly prefer a no-deal Brexit to a soft one.

    If the survey data was collected by a BPC member, then the two paragraphs are conflicting, given that Lab, SNP, PC & LD votes outnumbered Con & UKIP votes in the recent UK GE, IIRC.

  43. CR

    “Loaded” has another meaning in the USA! I like to think of it as meaning “too drunk to do anything”.

  44. bZ

    dont shoot the messenger because you dont like the message. still i am sure the guardian will have something more to your taste for you to link us to.
    Perhaps : “cod change their migration patterns due to brexit”

  45. S THOMAS

    There is nothing new in that Buzzfeed report. As it states Remainers have not changed their minds on the way they voted but have accepted that the Referendum was lost. Besides there have been other polls suggesting that on the contrary the public prefer there to be a soft Brexit. So frankly it’s all over the place.

    Still chime on if you have to. I would have thought the outcome of the General Election would have resulted in your being a little more circumspect. Obviously not.

  46. mike pearce

    1. the interesting thing about the buzzfeed poll is that it drills down into the issues rather than the rather lazy hard soft brexit description.
    2.Was that the general election in which both parties supported brexit and got 83% of the vote?As a brexiteer i can think of no better labour result than occurred. If Jezza had been destroyed a third party might have emerged which would have represented a greater threat to Brexit than now exists.IMHO jezza will not allow Labour to stop brexit.So Win Win. labour in opposition and supporting brexit.
    3. if you are right about the electorate being all over the place then we have a government that is in perfect harmony with them:-)

  47. @S THOMAS

    In the buzzfeed report there is somethign for everyone. but I would agree there is somethign fro everyone in previous polls where a majority think that brexit should happen and we get the best deal we can. but when asked whether they think that it is a good thing people are split right down the middle.

    basically we are accepting brexit is going to happen, what the problem is you are taking the think it should happen because of the voter and agreeing it is the best thing since sliced bread are two different things.

    I fear we are taking resignation of the situation as it stands as support for something.

    for example I would gladly take have my cake and eat it as the option but I don’t think that will happen

    In the same way if was running 100m against Usain Bolt for £1M iw would dearly like to win but guess what my chances are? (I did a 10.89 100m once but those days are long gone and I would bugger his blocks up too )
    ;-)

    i think the difference between remainers and leavers is not what would be ideal but what would be realistic. I thought that before the referendum and think that now

    The is a great west african saying that reality takes care of itself.

  48. COLIN
    “why ask me?” (Or as my granddaughter said to the Angel Gabriel in her Primary school Christmas play, on being told that she was the anointed one, why pick on me?”)
    I supposebecause I think that if you drill down into problems of negotiating Brexit you reach the swirling magma of a government orgroup of politicians which is prepared to take risks, as a younger and participating generation would see it to a UK central to a developing European civilization. Within the party political context it confronts on the left the continued strengthening of working place and human rightsin the context not just of the international labour market, but of such integrating forces as are proposed in an approach to migration from outside the EU shared by that generation and by such politicians as Corbyn and Bernie Sanders and their surprisingly wide spectrum of followers.
    Beyond cock-up, as my next book will be called.

  49. SOMERJOHN

    @”If, for instance, a quick deal with NZ resulted in our market being swamped with NZ lamb and butter, and at the same time our sheep and dairy farmers lost their EU export markets, a few thousand farmers would go bust. Hardly an election-swinger.”

    I hope that post Brexit Agricultural & Environmental policy involves fundamental change of the way we subsidise UK farmers & why we do so, and a complete re-think of land use in agricultural areas and by whom it is most appropriate & sensible to produce the food we eat ( and pay for)

    @”but the great British public was profoundly uninterested.”

    Thats the way it works in a Democracy. The public vote on the basis of things which they think are important. But salience changes over time. Nothing is forever.

  50. PASSTHEROCKPLEASE
    “There is a great west african saying that reality takes care of itself.”
    The doesn’t read convincingly written on the back of a mammy wagon.
    How about ” PEOPLE WILL SAY”

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